ABSTRACT The aim of industrial production changed from mass production at the beginning of the 20th century. Today, production flexibility determines manufacturing companies' course of action. In this sense, Volvo Group Trucks Operations is interested in meeting customer demand in their assembly lines by adjusting manpower. Thus, this investigation attempts to analyze the effect of manning on the main final assembly line for thirteen-liter heavy-duty diesel engines at Volvo Group Trucks Operations in Skövde by means of discrete-event simulation. This project presents a simulation model that simulates the assembly line. With the purpose of building the model data were required. One the one hand, qualitative data were collected to improve the knowledge in the fields related to the project topic, as well as to solve the lack of information in certain points of the project. On the other hand, simulation model programming requires quantitative data. Once the model was completed, simulation results were obtained through simulation-based optimization. This optimization process tested 50,000 different workforce scenarios to find the most efficient solutions for three different sequences. Among all results, the most interesting one for Volvo is the one which render 80% of today’s throughput with the minimum number of workers. Consequently, as a case study, a bottleneck analysis and worker performance analysis was performed for this scenario. Finally, a flexible and fully functional model that delivers the desired results was developed. These results provide a comparison among different manning scenarios considering throughput as main measurement of the main final assembly line performance. After analyzing the results, system output behavior was revealed. This behavior allows predicting optimal system output for a given number of operators.

This research establishes the feasibility and potential utility of a software mechanism which employs artificial intelligence techniques to enhance the capabilities of standard discrete event simulators. As background, current methods of integrating artificial intelligence with simulation and relevant research are briefly reviewed.

Healthcare systems are traditionally characterised by complexity and heterogeneity. With the continuous increase in size and shrinkage of available resources, the healthcare sector faces the challenge of delivering high quality services with fewer resources. Healthcare organisations cannot be seen in isolation since the services of one such affects the performance of other healthcare organisations. Efficient management and forward planning, not only locally but rather across the whole system, could support healthcare sector to overcome the challenges. An example of closely interwoven organisations within the healthcare sector is the emergency medical services (EMS). EMS operate in a region and usually consist of one ambulance service and the available accident and emergency (A&E) departments within the coverage area. EMS provide, mainly, pre-hospital treatment and transport to the appropriate A&E units. The life-critical nature of EMS demands continuous systems improvement practices. Modelling and Simulation (M&S) has been used to analyse either the ambulance services or the A&E departments. However, the size and complexity of EMS systems constitute the conventional M&S techniques inadequate to model the system as a whole. This research adopts the approach of distributed simulation to model all the EMS components as individual and composable simulations that are able to run as standalone simulation, as well as federates in a distributed simulation (DS) model. Moreover, the hybrid approach connects agent-based simulation (ABS) and discrete event simulation (DES) models in order to accommodate the heterogeneity of the EMS components. The proposed FIELDS Framework for Integrated EMS Large-scale Distributed Simulation supports the re-use of existing, heterogeneous models that can be linked with the High Level Architecture (HLA) protocol for distributed simulation in order to compose large-scale simulation models. Based on FIELDS, a prototype ABS-DES distributed simulation EMS model was developed based on the London EMS. Experiments were conducted with the model and the system was tested in terms of performance and scalability measures to assess the feasibility of the proposed approach. The yielded results indicate that it is feasible to develop hybrid DS models of EMS that enables holistic analysis of the system and support model re-use. The main contributions of this thesis is a distributed simulation methodology that derived along the process of conducting this project, the FIELDS framework for hybrid EMS distributed simulation studies that support re-use of existing simulation models, and a prototype distributed simulation model that can be potentially used as a tool for EMS analysis and improvement.

Healthcare industry in United States of America is facing a big paradox. Although US is a leader in the industry of medical devices, medical practices and medical researches, however there isnt enough satisfaction and quality in performance of US healthcare operations. Despite the big investments and budgets associated with US healthcare, there are big threats to US healthcare operational side, that reduces the quality of care. In this research study, a step by step Systems Engineering approach is applied to improve healthcare delivery process in an Emergency Department of a hospital located in Indianapolis, Indiana. In this study, different type of systems engineering tools and techniques are used to improve the quality of care and patients satisfaction in ED of Eskenazi hospital. Having a simulation model will help to have a better understanding of the ED process and learn more about the bottlenecks of the process. Simulation model is verified and validated using different techniques like applying extreme and moderate conditions and comparing model results with historical data. 4 different what if scenarios are proposed and tested to find out about possible LOS improvements. Additionally, those scenarios are tested in both regular and an increased patient arrival rate. The optimal selected what-if scenario can reduce the LOS by 37 minutes compared to current ED setting. Additionally, by increasing the patient arrival rate patients may stay in the ED up to 6 hours. However, with the proposed ED setting, patients will only spend an additional 106 minutes compared to the regular patient arrival rate.<br>

Essa dissertação tem como objetivo utilizar a simulação de eventos discretos na análise dos estoques seletivos em processo de cabinas, em uma montadora de veículos comerciais de grande porte instalada no Brasil. A análise e a redução desses estoques seletivos são desejadas, pois o armazenamento de cabinas de caminhões, além de representar um alto custo para a produção, é de difícil controle e de alto risco. O desenvolvimento deste trabalho contribuirá para o conhecimento das dificuldades e benefícios da aplicação da simulação de sistemas discretos em sistemas produtivos de alta complexidade, como são os sistemas de manufatura da indústria automobilística. A análise desse sistema é de significativa dificuldade, devido ao tamanho dos produtos, ao mix de produção, à variabilidade do fluxo das etapas de produção e às diversas variáveis que influem no sistema simultaneamente. A técnica de simulação de eventos discretos foi escolhida por ser a mais indicada para analisar todo o sistema e auxiliar na tomada de decisão. Todo o estudo do sistema, modelagem, verificação, validação, simulação e resultados foram feitos de acordo com procedimentos já sedimentados para o uso da simulação de eventos discretos, de acordo com a bibliografia apresentada. Os resultados mostram a eficiência do método utilizado e propõem um cenário otimizado para o sistema estudado. O estudo foi realizado com a utilização do software de simulação de eventos discretos, Arena® 5.0. / This work has the main objective to use the discrete event simulation to analyze the in process cabins selective banks of a commercial vehicle assembler. The analysis and reduction of the selective banks are useful because the storage of cabins represents some production risks, is hard to control and implies in high costs. The developing of this work will contribute to the knowledge of the difficulties and benefits of the use of discrete event simulation applied to high complexity production systems like the automotive industry. The size of the products, the production mix, the throughput variability and the other simultaneous variables turn the storage analysis to a hard level. In this way, the discrete event simulation is the most indicated technique to help the analysis and the decision making. The whole study of the system, the modeling, the validation, the simulation runs and the results were done according to known procedures of using the discrete event simulation, which are mentioned in the references. The presented results show the efficiency of the utilized method and proposed optimized scenery of the studied system. The simulation software Arena 5.0 was used in this study.

Uma vez que uma aplicação ou projeto tenha sido identificado como sujeito ao uso da simulação, decisões devem ser tomadas acerca de como conduzir os estudos. Embora não haja regras definitivas, alguns passos são geralmente recomendados, tais como: planejamento do estudo, definição do sistema, construção do modelo, execução dos experimentos, análise dos resultados e relatório final. E, a construção do modelo é uma das etapas mais demoradas e complexas. Na execução dos experimentos, e na análise dos resultados a Realidade Virtual (RV) é uma interface que pode fornecer um suporte importante para a tomada de decisões, pois a RV auxilia na criação de mundos virtuais semelhantes ao mundo real, que ajudam na compreensão do funcionamento dos sistemas. Este trabalho propõe um metamodelo para o desenvolvimento de sistemas de simulação de eventos discretos com interface de RV aplicados a ambientes ou estações de trabalho de manufatura. A proposta do metamodelo é composto por quatro módulos: i) de edição e validação de modelos, ii) de criação, edição e execução de ambientes virtuais, iii) de conexão para efetuar o elo entre os dois primeiros módulos e, iv) de controle para gerenciar a comunicação e controlar a simulação. Como resultado tem-se a simulação centralizada baseada no modelo descrito em Rede de Petris (RP) com interface de RV distribuída. O sistema computacional gerado pelo metamodelo auxiliará no aprendizado e compreensão do problema simulado, e ainda permitirá ao usuário o envolvimento através da iteração. / The VR aids in the creation of virtual worlds similar to the real world, helping in understanding how a system works. This research work is concerned with the development of a discrete-event system simulation based on Petri Nets, with Virtual Reality interface for manufacturing environment or workstations. The system is composed of four modules, the first is model editing and validation, the second module is a modeling tool for virtual objects and/or a library of virtual elements, the third module makes the link between the two previous modules, and finally, the fourth is a simulation and control module. The centralized simulation is based on models described by Petri Nets with distributed RV interface resulting in a flexible and consistent system. The system will help users in learning and understanding the simulation problem, and it will also allow the user\'s integration with the environment through the interaction, and through distributed interface.

Modelos de simulação usados para representar uma malha ferroviária com a circulação de trens percorrendo nela um ciclo fechado, estão sujeitos a diversas interferências. Essas interferências são representadas pela circulação de outros trens, bem como pelas filas que são formadas junto aos terminas de carga e descarga, que alteram a programação inicialmente idealizada. A validação desses modelos de simulação é prejudicada por essas interferências, e a busca por um correto procedimento de validação deve ter como base o adequado direcionamento e alocação dos trens. A carência de estudos sobre a validação de simulações aplicadas a sistemas ferroviários, que considerem a característica especifica de trens de ciclo e as interferências citadas, possibilitou a elaboração desta tese, a qual sinaliza que o desenvolvimento de algoritmos que representam o processo de movimentação dos trens em nível de detalhe suficiente, e a adoção de um método de direcionamento adequado, permitem a validação do modelo para esse tipo de sistema. Das três alternativas avaliadas para representar o direcionamento: escolha aleatória entre diversos pontos de carregamento para atender um destino final ou realizado por rotina com a mesma finalidade inserida no próprio simulador, e por modelo otimizador acessado externamente pelo simulador, foi selecionada a segunda opção por permitir uma validação do modelo mais próxima da realidade e realizar experimentos com menor tempo computacional. Uma vez programado o modelo de simulação com o direcionamento de trens escolhido, foi possível conduzir experimentos para medir a sensibilidade com relação as principais variáveis que permitem o dimensionamento de sistemas ferroviários brasileiros. / The rail network simulation models considering trains on closed loop may have many disturbances. These disturbances are caused by the railnet traffic, or queues at the load/unload stations, that changes the movement previously planned. The validation of these simulation models can be problematic because of these disturbances, and the search for the right validation procedure must count with a good train destination choosing process. The lack of studies about the validation of simulations applied to rail networks, considering the specific features of the closed loop trains and the disturbances, have leaded this thesis development, which proves that the development of algorithms that represent the movement process of the trains under sufficient detailing level, and the adoption of a correct destination choosing process, reaches the model validation. From the three options evaluated to represent this destination choosing procedure: random choosing between many loading points to one unloading point, or an internal model routine to do this same task, or an external optimization model called from the simulation model, was choosen the second option, because it validates the model and runs the simulation experiment faster. Once prepared the model with the destination choosing process selected, was possible to conduct experiments to measure the model sensitivity to the main parameters at the design of brazilian rail networks.

Submitted by Mariana Dornelles Vargas (marianadv) on 2015-03-17T19:40:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 metodo_quantificar.pdf: 1038017 bytes, checksum: 54f78fa2753a1dfe9d797dc88d1ed31e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-17T19:40:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 metodo_quantificar.pdf: 1038017 bytes, checksum: 54f78fa2753a1dfe9d797dc88d1ed31e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-03-16 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / PROSUP - Programa de Suporte à Pós-Gradução de Instituições de Ensino Particulares / Em ambientes produtivos intermitentes que operam na condição ?produzir para estoque?, com fluxo convergente, a possibilidade de constituir estoques em processo (WIP), de produtos prontos, ou matérias-primas pode aumentar o grau de complexidade da gestão das operações e a necessidade de utilizar procedimentos de controle distintos para cada tipo de estoque. Ao focar no alinhamento da gestão dos estoques aos planos de demanda e capacidade, considerando um ambiente produtivo que emprega a abordagem Conwip, a presente pesquisa tem por finalidade propor um método estruturado que possibilite quantificar o nível de WIP do sistema produtivo, a partir da Simulação por Eventos Discretos e da técnica de Apoio Multicritério ELECTRE TRI. Esta pesquisa tem o intuito de contribuir com a geração de informações que subsidiem a tomada de decisão concernente à escolha de uma configuração de cenário que aluda a um nível de estoque em processo e de produtos prontos considerando o mix de produção sob estudo. Fundamentado na proposta desenvolvida nesta dissertação, o Método de Pesquisa pode ser caracterizado quanto aos procedimentos técnicos, pelo uso da Simulação Computacional e relativo à natureza dos dados, destaca-se o da abordagem essencialmente quantitativa, ou Pesquisa Quantitativa. O método proposto foi avaliado, quanto a sua estrutura e proposta, por especialistas das disciplinas de Simulação, Gestão de Sistemas Produtivos e Métodos Multicritério à Decisão. Uma aplicação do método em um sistema produtivo real também é apresentada / In intermittent productive systems that operate in the condition 'make to stock' with convergent flow, the possibility of generate work in process (WIP), finish good products or raw materials inventories can increase the degree of complexity of the management in the operations and the need of using procedures of different control for each stock type. Focusing in the alignment of the stocks to the demand and capacity plans, considering a productive system which uses the Conwip approach, this research describes a structured method that aims to quantify the level of WIP in the productive system, applying the Events Discrete Simulation and the technique nominated ELECTRE TRI. This research intends to contribute with the generation of information for decision support regarding the choice of work in process and finished goods stock levels, considering the production mix studied. Based in the proposal developed in this work, the Method of Research can be characterized, regarding the technical procedures, as Computational Simulation, and regarding the nature of the data, as Quantitative Research. The method proposed in this research was evaluated for specialists in the disciplines of Simulation, Administration of Production Systems and Multicriteria Decision Analysis. An application of the method in a real productive system is also presented.

Current industrial companies are highly pressured by growing competitiveness and globalization, while striving for increased production effectiveness. Meanwhile, flustered markets and amplified customer demands are causing manufacturers to shift strategy. Hence, international companies are challenged to pursue changes, in order to continue being competitive on global markets. Consequently, a new industrial revolution has taken place, introduced as Industry 4.0. This new concept incorporates organizational improvement and digitalization of current information and data flows. Accomplished by data from embedded systems through connected machines, devices and humans into a combined interface. Thus, companies are given possibilities to improve current production systems, simultaneously saving operational costs and minimizing insufficient production development. Smart Factories, being the foundation of Industry 4.0 results in making more accurate and precise operational decisions from abilities to test industrial changes in a virtual world before real-life implementation. However, in order to assure these functions as intended, enormous amount of data must be collected, analysed and evaluated. The indicated data will aid companies to make more self-aware and automated decisions, resulting in increased effectiveness in production. Thus, the concept will clearly change how operational decisions are made today. Nowadays, Discrete Event Simulation is a commonly applied tool founded on specific data requirements as operational changes can be tested in virtual settings. Accordingly, it is believed that simulation can aid companies that are striving for implementing Industry 4.0. As a result, data requirements between Discrete Event Simulation and Industry 4.0 needs to be established, while detecting the current data gap in operational context. Hence, the purpose of this thesis is to analyse the data requirements of Discrete Event Simulation and Industry 4.0 for improving operational decisions of production systems. In order to justify the purpose, the following research questions has been stated:   RQ1: What are the data challenges in existing production systems? RQ2: What data is required for implementing Industry 4.0 in production systems? RQ3: How can data requirements from Discrete Event Simulation benefit operational decisions when implementing Industry 4.0?   The research questions were answered by conducting a case study, in collaboration with Scania CV AB. The case study performed observations, interviews and other relevant data collection to accomplish the purpose. In parallel, a literature review focusing on data requirements for operational decisions was compared to the empirical findings. The analysis identified the current data gap in existing production systems, in correlation to Industry 4.0, affecting the accuracy of operational decisions. In addition, it was shown that simulation can undoubtedly give positive outcome for adaptation of Industry 4.0, and a clear insight on data requirements.

This thesis participates to the effort launched after the Fukushima-Daiichi disaster to improve the robustness of national institutions involved in nuclear safety because of the role that the failing nuclear regulator had in the accident. The driving idea is to investigate how engineering techniques used in high-risk industries can be applied to institutions involved in nuclear safety to improve their robustness. The thesis focuses specifically on the Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR), the British nuclear regulator, and its process for structured inspections. The first part of the thesis demonstrates that the hazard and operability (HAZOP) technique, used in the nuclear industry to identify hazards associated with an activity, can be adapted to qualitatively assess the robustness of organisational processes. The HAZOP method was applied to the ONR inspection process and led to the identification of five significant failures or errors. These are: failure to focus on an area/topic deserving regulatory attention; failure to evaluate an area/topic of interest; failure to identify a non-compliance; failure to identify the underlying issue, its full extent and/or safety significance and failure to adequately share inspection findings. In addition, the study identified the main causal chains leading to each failure. The safeguards of the process, i.e. the mechanisms in place to prevent, detect, resolve and mitigate possible failures, were then analysed to assess the robustness of the inspection process. The principal safeguard found is the superintending inspector who performs reviews of inspection reports and debriefs inspectors after inspections. It was concluded that the inspection process is robust provided recruitment and training excellence. However, given the predominant role of the superintending inspector, the robustness of the process could be improved by increasing the diversity of safeguards. Finally, suggestions for improvement were made such as establishing a formal handover procedure between former and new site inspectors, formalising and generalising the shadowing scheme between inspectors and setting minimum standards for inspection debriefs. These results were shared with ONR, which had reached the same conclusions independently, thus validating the new application for the HAZOP method. The second part of the thesis demonstrates that computational modelling techniques can be used to build digital twins of institutions involved in safety which can then be used to assess their effectiveness. The knowledge learned thanks to the HAZOP study was used in association with computational modelling techniques to build a digital twin of the ONR and its structural inspection process along with a simple model of a nuclear plant. The model was validated using the face-validity and predictive validation processes. They respectively involved an experienced ONR inspector checking the validity of the model’s procedures and decision-making processes and comparing the model’s output for oversight work done to data provided by the ONR. The effectiveness of the ONR was then evaluated using a scenario where a hypothetical, newly discovered phenomenon threatens the integrity of the plant, with ONR inspectors gradually learning and sharing new information about it. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to estimate the cost of regulatory oversight and the probability that the ONR model detects and resolves the issue introduced before it causes an accident. Different arrangements were tested and in particular with a superintending inspector reviewing inspection reports and a formal information sharing process. For this scenario, these two improvements were found to have a similar impact on the success probability. However, the former achieves it for only half the cost.