abstract: This dissertation advances spatial decision support system development theory by using a geodesign approach to evaluate design alternatives for such systems, including the impacts of the spatial model, technical spatial data, and user interface tools. These components are evaluated with a case study spatial decision support system for watershed management in the Niantic River watershed in Connecticut, USA. In addition to this case study, this dissertation provides a broader perspective on applying the approach to spatial decision support systems in general. The spatial model presented is validated, the impacts of the model are considered. The technical spatial data are evaluated using a new method developed to quantify data fitness for use in a spatial decision support system. Finally, the tools of the user interface are assessed by applying a conceptual framework and evaluating the resulting tools via user survey. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2014

IT projects are temporary organizations of strategic importance. Companies invest large amounts of money, time, and resources into business-embedded IT projects in order to change and gain a competitive advantage. Extreme cases of failures were previously only analyzed as case studies, e.g., Denver Airport, London Stock Exchange Taurus, London Ambulance Service. The research poses an important question: What is the risk of these outliers, that is markedly deviant observations of IT project performance? What causes outliers in IT project performance? Only very few studies problematized the frequency of outliers directly. Reported numbers range from 33% to as low as 0.2%. The variation has been explained through biases in planning processes of organizations and as artefact of data collection. An alternative explanation is that the true nature of IT projects contains more variation than commonly assumed. A rich body of organizational, project management, and IT project management literature offers antecedents of outliers. The extant literature falls broadly into three schools of thought: (1) system-centric, (2) event-centric, and (3) process-centric theories of why outliers occurred. System-centric explanations focus on the question of system design, based on theories of normal accidents and high reliability organizations. Event-centric explanations focus on how organizations respond to rare events that impact the organization, based on theories of crisis management, management of organizational turbulence, and strategic surprises. Process-centric explanations focus on the role of managing uncertainty and risk over time, based on theories of man-made disasters, escalation of commitment to a failing course of action, and the normalization of deviance. The study is based on the archival research of 4,307 IT projects from 190 organizations. The findings show that the tail of the cost, schedule, and effort performance distributions is best fitted by a power law, with overwhelming goodness of fit. Moreover, the findings show that system-centric explanations and process-centric theories offer explanations for the thickness of the tail and the odds of an outlier occurring. In particular five variables were associated with outliers: estimated cost and duration, perceived uniqueness of the project, the qualification and motivation of the project team, and the effectiveness of monitoring and controlling. The results show that outliers are not chance events; they follow patterns that are describable. The study showed how design factors, that are often conceptualized as system complexities, and execution factors, that are often conceptualized as the effectiveness of project processes, explain project outliers. Lastly, the thesis draws implications for research and practice.

How can political science account for the decision of African states to strengthen their ties with China, often at the expense of other alliances and often in the face of economic risks? This thesis explores this question in the context of relations between Ethiopia and China, especially in the context of investments made by Chinese sovereign wealth funds in the Ethiopian economy. To begin to answer this question this thesis recasts the China-Africa debate to focus on African, i.e. Ethiopian, agency. The focus is on how Ethiopia's political leaders make foreign policy decisions and on the factors that shape their preferences. This focus reveals the influence of cognitive variables on their foreign policy decisions; the influence of their guiding ideology, 'revolutionary democracy,' is especially key. An analysis of Ethiopia's formal institutions demonstrates they are inadequate to explain the policy choices of Ethiopian leaders; they have been designed to reflect the concepts of revolutionary democracy. Using the language of prospect theory, a descriptive theory of decision-making under risk, this thesis contends that Ethiopian leaders select foreign policy options by weighing their possible outcomes as gains or losses relative to revolutionary democracy as their reference frame. Ethiopian leaders sanctioned China's finance of the Ethiopian Telecommunications Corporation despite the monopoly it gave to China and its impact on Ethiopia's debt. They formed a front company between Ethiopia and China's military industrial complexes despite its negative effects on economic development. They opened Ethiopia’s regions to Chinese capital although capital flows only to state-owned enterprises. Yet in each case, ideological objectives were advanced. This examination demonstrates how non-structural factors play a critical role in a bureaucratized state. Theoretical frameworks that account for these factors, like prospect theory, are therefore valuable to more robust understandings of Ethiopia, and Africa's, deepening relations with China.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:27:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcelo Luis Roland Zovico.pdf: 474331 bytes, checksum: 6cedca715df9f0963d2420fc729801b5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-04-30 / The aim of the present work is the study of the Hermeneutics in the decision of the Conflicts of the Right, being based for in such a way, in the sociological vision of the Right for the Theory of the Systems of Niklas Luhmman. The hermeneutics has deserved deep attention of that they think the Right. To each day more, if it searchs to minimize the conflicts of the Right, glimpsing itself it necessity of one technique and a interpretativa art of the norms, capable to minimize the conflicts. Of the first chapter to third, a boarding of the historical evolution of the interpretation of the norms becomes different oldies concepts, much longer before of a complex actual society, time of interpret had another meaning, each in mythology than for who studies and then that search the concept. The social-historical progress of the world, indicates the strength its importance. Each day more, with the complex of society, became harder seek equanimous and aquilibrate and balance, specially in the normative system, fact that may cause big uncomfortableness for the society. One decision with peculation of principals, may show unbalance, awake for the needing techniques and behaviour efficacious and efficacious, contending consequent Science of Law, the sixth chapter studies the different systems of expound, passing by Ihering, Savigny, Kelsen them we get the concept of Autopoiétcs Systens and Communication, showing that the solution for the conflicts of Law is interpreting through the System Theory. At the end, in the last chapter, consider to conclude that is fundamental to reduce a complex of the societies developing instruments that get possible allow the Legal systems judge with justice / O presente trabalho objetivou o estudo da Hermenêutica na solução dos Conflitos do Direito, baseando-se para tanto, na visão sociológica do Direito pela Teoria dos Sistemas de Niklas Luhmman. A hermenêutica tem merecido profunda atenção daqueles que pensam o Direito. A cada dia mais, se busca minimizar os conflitos do Direito, vislumbrando-se a necessidade de uma técnica e de uma arte interpretativa das normas, capaz de minimizar os conflitos. Do capítulo primeiro ao terceiro, faz-se uma abordagem da evolução histórica da interpretação das normas, mostrando os diferentes nuances e conceitos mais antigos, muito antes da complexidade da sociedade atual, tempo em que interpretar tinha, outro significado, tanto na mitologia quanto para os estudiosos que se envolveram na busca de precisar o conceito. O desenvolvimento histórico-sociológico da palavra indicou a força de sua importância. A cada dia mais, com a complexidade da sociedade, torna-se mais difícil buscar soluções equânimes e equilibradas, especialmente no ramo do sistema normativo, fato que pode gerar grande desconforto para a sociedade. Uma decisão com desfalque principiológico, pode demonstrar o desequilíbrio, alertando a sociedade para o despertar da necessidade de técnicas e condutas eficazes e eficientes, combatendo o conseqüente enfraquecimento do conceito de justiça para a sociedade. Após a diferenciação entre Dogmática e Ciência do Direito, o sexto capítulo estuda os diferentes sistemas de interpretação, passando Ihering, Savigny, Kelsen até chegarmos no conceito de sistemas Autoiéticos, ao demonstrar que a solução para os conflitos do Direito é interpretá-lo através da Teoria dos Sistemas. Por fim, o último capítulo discorre sobre a Autopoiésis e Comunicação, apresentando a nova teoria dos sistemas, concluindo-se ser fundamental reduzir-se a complexidade das sociedades desenvolvendo instrumentos que permitam aos sistemas jurídicos decisões mais justas

Lorsque des systèmes, tels les barrages, sont soumis à un haut degré d’incertitude et que l’heuristique des experts prend une place très importante, les outils habituels de gestion des risques ne sont pas toujours efficaces pour rendre compte du jugement des experts. Les sciences de la décision proposent alors des outils pour aider à la compréhension, voire à l’élicitation de l’avis des experts. Dans le cas des barrages, nous disposons d’un retour d’expérience encore peu formalisé et de peu d’événements significatifs. En outre, les mécanismes phénoménologiques à l’œuvre sont mal connus. Il est alors nécessaire d’invoquer des outils qui sortent des habitudes pratiquées dans la gestion des risques. Cette étude propose une méthode qui permet à l’expert de mieux éliciter son jugement, et de révéler les risques sur les barrages par un traitement ordinal de l’information d’expertise. En outre, nous montrerons que cet outil est un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance, et promet donc une information de première importance pour un décisionnaire. Pour parvenir à ce résultat, nous utiliserons une méthode articulée autour des bases de règles logiques, dont la construction est enrichie par des outils issus des théories du vote, des jeux coopératifs et des bases de données. De cette façon, nous montrerons qu’il est possible de gérer les risques sans utiliser les outils issus des approches probabilistes, tout en prenant en compte les heuristiques des experts. / When facing high uncertainty systems, such as dams, where experts heuristics becomes too much important, usual tools are not satisfying enough to reveal experts’ opinion in order to manage the risks associated with the system. Decision science then brings tools to sharpen our understanding, or even help the elicitation, of what the expert wants best to express. Concerning dams, we have only very little feedback, and no to few significant events. In addition to the lack of knowledge when it comes to the phenomenological mechanisms, these issues lead us to use unusual tools for risk management. This study brings an innovative tool to help on the elicitation of experts’ opinion, allowing risk management on dams based on an ordering approach. Furthermore, we will show this tool is an estimation of the maximum likelihood, which is invaluable information for any decision maker. We will show this result is obtainable through a method using rule based assignments, developing the rules thanks to tools like votes, games and database theories. Doing so, we will show how it is possible to process risks without using usual probabilistic tools, while taking experts’ heuristics into account.

In recent years businesses around the world have been facing the challenges of a rapidly changing business and technology environment. As a result, organisations are paying more attention to supporting business process management by adapting to the dynamic environment. With the increased complexity and uncertainty in business operations, adaptive and collaborative business process and exception management (EM) are gaining attention. In the logistics industry, the growing importance of logistics worldwide as well as the increasing complexity of logistics networks and the service requirement of customers has become a challenge. The current logistics exceptions are managed using human brain power together with the traditional workflow technology-based supply-chain management or other logistics tools. The traditional workflow technology models and manages business processes and anticipated exceptions based on predefined logical procedures of activities from a centralised perspective. This situation offers inadequate decision support for flexibility and adaptability in logistics EM. The traditional workflow technology is also limited to monitoring the logistics activities in real-time to detect and resolve exceptions in a timely manner. To mitigate these problems, an intelligent agent incorporating business activity monitoring (BAM) decision support approach in logistics EM has been proposed and investigated in this research. This research creates and evaluates two IT designed artefacts (conceptual framework and prototype) intended to efficiently and automatically monitor and handle logistics exceptions. It follows a design science research strategy. The design, development, and evaluation adhere to the principles enunciated in the design science literature. The aim of this research is to solve the important logistics EM problem in a more effective and efficient manner. Two designed artefacts were strictly informed by, and incorporated with, three different theories. An exploratory case study and a later confirmatory case study assisted in the rigorous derivation of the design and framework. The results of the confirmatory case study were used in particular to refine the designed artefacts. Such a build-and-evaluate loop iterated several times before the final designed artefacts were generated. The designed artefacts were then evaluated empirically via a field experiment. The research included both a technical presentation and a practical framing in terms of application in the logistics exception monitoring and handling domain. In this study, there were three interrelated research phases. In the first research phase, a decision-making conceptual framework (an artefact) for design and development of real-time logistics EM system was developed. To enable more efficient decision support practices for logistics EM, the characteristics of logistics exceptions were first examined and identified. The logistics exception analysis was conducted through a comprehensive literature review and an exploratory case study conducted in a major logistics company in Australia. The logistics exceptions were then classified into known and knowable categories, based on the Cynefin sense-making framework (Snowden, 2002). On the basis of the logistics analysis, informed by Gartner’s three-layer BAM architecture (Dresner, 2003), the Cynefin sense-making framework decision models (Snowden, 2002), and Simon’s (1977) decision-making/problem-solving process, the real-time logistics EM conceptual framework was depicted. The BAM architecture provided the real-time decision support. Based on Cynefin’s decision model, adaptive business process flow was chosen for known and knowable logistics exceptions to speed up the decision-making process. In addition, Simon’s process theory was deployed to model the diagnosing process for known and knowable logistics exceptions. This conceptual model guided the analysis, design, and development for real-time logistics EM systems. In the second research phase, based on the logistics EM conceptual framework, a Web-service-multi-agent-based real-time logistics EM system (an artefact) was designed and developed. Intelligent agent technology was applied to deal with the complex, dynamic, and distributed logistics EM processes. Web-services techniques were proposed for more interoperability and scalability in network-based business environment. By integrating agent technology with Web-services to make use of the advantages from both, this approach provided a more intelligent, flexible, autonomous, and comprehensive solution to real-time logistics EM. In the third research phase, two designed artefacts were evaluated via a confirmatory case study and a field experiment. The confirmatory case study was conducted to collect feedback on the two designed artefacts (i.e., conceptual framework and prototype system) to refine them. The field experiment was then conducted to investigate the proposed logistics EM prototype system decision support effectiveness and efficiency by comparing the human decision-making performance with/without the logistics EM decision support facility. The evaluation results indicated that the proposed logistics EM prototype outperformed the one without logistics EM decision support in terms of more efficient decision process, higher decision outcome quality, and better user perception. The two designed artefacts were the major contributions of this research. They add knowledge to decision theory and practice. The artefacts are the real-time extension for Simon’s (1977) classic decision-making/problem-solving process model in logistics EM by incorporating BAM (Dresner, 2003). In addition, by adding the Cynefin sense-making framework (Snowden, 2002), the artefacts provide a more efficient decision-making routine for logistics EM. This research provides the first attempt (to the best of the researcher’s knowledge) to design a real-time logistics EM decision support mechanism based on decision science theories. To demonstrate the usability of the proposed conceptual framework, a logistics EM decision support prototype was designed, developed, and evaluated. For practice, the logistics exceptions classification, logistics EM conceptual framework, and incorporating agent technologies into logistics EM all will assist logistics companies to develop their logistics exception handling decision-making strategies and solutions.

In recent years businesses around the world have been facing the challenges of a rapidly changing business and technology environment. As a result, organisations are paying more attention to supporting business process management by adapting to the dynamic environment. With the increased complexity and uncertainty in business operations, adaptive and collaborative business process and exception management (EM) are gaining attention. In the logistics industry, the growing importance of logistics worldwide as well as the increasing complexity of logistics networks and the service requirement of customers has become a challenge. The current logistics exceptions are managed using human brain power together with the traditional workflow technology-based supply-chain management or other logistics tools. The traditional workflow technology models and manages business processes and anticipated exceptions based on predefined logical procedures of activities from a centralised perspective. This situation offers inadequate decision support for flexibility and adaptability in logistics EM. The traditional workflow technology is also limited to monitoring the logistics activities in real-time to detect and resolve exceptions in a timely manner. To mitigate these problems, an intelligent agent incorporating business activity monitoring (BAM) decision support approach in logistics EM has been proposed and investigated in this research. This research creates and evaluates two IT designed artefacts (conceptual framework and prototype) intended to efficiently and automatically monitor and handle logistics exceptions. It follows a design science research strategy. The design, development, and evaluation adhere to the principles enunciated in the design science literature. The aim of this research is to solve the important logistics EM problem in a more effective and efficient manner. Two designed artefacts were strictly informed by, and incorporated with, three different theories. An exploratory case study and a later confirmatory case study assisted in the rigorous derivation of the design and framework. The results of the confirmatory case study were used in particular to refine the designed artefacts. Such a build-and-evaluate loop iterated several times before the final designed artefacts were generated. The designed artefacts were then evaluated empirically via a field experiment. The research included both a technical presentation and a practical framing in terms of application in the logistics exception monitoring and handling domain. In this study, there were three interrelated research phases. In the first research phase, a decision-making conceptual framework (an artefact) for design and development of real-time logistics EM system was developed. To enable more efficient decision support practices for logistics EM, the characteristics of logistics exceptions were first examined and identified. The logistics exception analysis was conducted through a comprehensive literature review and an exploratory case study conducted in a major logistics company in Australia. The logistics exceptions were then classified into known and knowable categories, based on the Cynefin sense-making framework (Snowden, 2002). On the basis of the logistics analysis, informed by Gartner’s three-layer BAM architecture (Dresner, 2003), the Cynefin sense-making framework decision models (Snowden, 2002), and Simon’s (1977) decision-making/problem-solving process, the real-time logistics EM conceptual framework was depicted. The BAM architecture provided the real-time decision support. Based on Cynefin’s decision model, adaptive business process flow was chosen for known and knowable logistics exceptions to speed up the decision-making process. In addition, Simon’s process theory was deployed to model the diagnosing process for known and knowable logistics exceptions. This conceptual model guided the analysis, design, and development for real-time logistics EM systems. In the second research phase, based on the logistics EM conceptual framework, a Web-service-multi-agent-based real-time logistics EM system (an artefact) was designed and developed. Intelligent agent technology was applied to deal with the complex, dynamic, and distributed logistics EM processes. Web-services techniques were proposed for more interoperability and scalability in network-based business environment. By integrating agent technology with Web-services to make use of the advantages from both, this approach provided a more intelligent, flexible, autonomous, and comprehensive solution to real-time logistics EM. In the third research phase, two designed artefacts were evaluated via a confirmatory case study and a field experiment. The confirmatory case study was conducted to collect feedback on the two designed artefacts (i.e., conceptual framework and prototype system) to refine them. The field experiment was then conducted to investigate the proposed logistics EM prototype system decision support effectiveness and efficiency by comparing the human decision-making performance with/without the logistics EM decision support facility. The evaluation results indicated that the proposed logistics EM prototype outperformed the one without logistics EM decision support in terms of more efficient decision process, higher decision outcome quality, and better user perception. The two designed artefacts were the major contributions of this research. They add knowledge to decision theory and practice. The artefacts are the real-time extension for Simon’s (1977) classic decision-making/problem-solving process model in logistics EM by incorporating BAM (Dresner, 2003). In addition, by adding the Cynefin sense-making framework (Snowden, 2002), the artefacts provide a more efficient decision-making routine for logistics EM. This research provides the first attempt (to the best of the researcher’s knowledge) to design a real-time logistics EM decision support mechanism based on decision science theories. To demonstrate the usability of the proposed conceptual framework, a logistics EM decision support prototype was designed, developed, and evaluated. For practice, the logistics exceptions classification, logistics EM conceptual framework, and incorporating agent technologies into logistics EM all will assist logistics companies to develop their logistics exception handling decision-making strategies and solutions.

The international knowledge management field has different ways of investigating, developing, believing, and studying knowledge management. Knowledge management (KM) is distinguished deductively by know-how, and its intangible nature establishes different approaches to KM concepts, practices, and developments. Exploratory research and theoretical principles have formed functional intelligences from 1896 to 2013, leading to a knowledge management knowledge science (KMKS) concept that derived a grounded theory of knowledge activity (KAT). This study addressed the impact of knowledge production problems on KM practice. The purpose of this qualitative meta-analysis study was to fit KM practice within the framework of knowledge science (KS) study. Themed questions and research variables focused on field mechanisms, operative functions, principle theory, and relationships of KMKS. The action research used by American practitioners has not established a formal structure for KS. The meta-data-analysis examined 385 transdisciplinary peer-reviewed articles using social science, service science, and systems science databases, with a selection of interdisciplinary studies that had a practice-research-theory framework. Key attributes utilizing Boolean limiters, words, phrases and publication dates, along with triangulation, language analysis and coding through analytic software identified commonalities of the data under study. Findings reflect that KM has not become a theoretically saturated field. KS as the forensic science of KM creates a paradigm shift, causes social change that averts rapid shifts in management direction and uncertainty, and connects KM philosophy and science of knowledge. These findings have social change implications by informing the work of managers and academics to generate a methodical applied science.

The research presented in this thesis is based in the Humanities discipline of Ancient History and begins by attempting to understand the interpretation process involved in reading ancient documents and how this process can be aided by computer systems such as Decision Support Systems (DSS). The thesis balances between the use of IT tools to aid Humanities research and the understanding that Humanities research must involve human beings. It does not attempt to develop a system that can automate the reading of ancient documents. Instead it seeks to demonstrate and develop tools that can support this process in the five areas: remembering complex reasoning, searching huge datasets, international collaboration, publishing editions, and image enhancement. This research contains a large practical element involving the development of a DSS prototype. The prototype is used to illustrate how a DSS, by remembering complex reasoning, can aid the process of interpretation that is reading ancient documents. It is based on the idea that the interpretation process goes through a network of interpretation. The network of interpretation illustrates a recursive process where scholars move between reading levels such as ‘these strokes look like the letter c’ or ‘these five letters must be the word primo’. Furthermore, the thesis demonstrates how technology such as Web Services and XML can be used to make a DSS even more powerful through the development of the APPELLO word search Web Service. Finally, the conclusion includes a suggestion for a future development of a working DSS that incorporates the idea of a layer-based system and focuses strongly on user interaction.

Cumulative effects from multiple anthropogenic stressors over the past three centuries have severely impacted estuarine and coastal habitats, with cascading effects on the species that rely upon them. Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.) are migratory species that use estuaries as juveniles and as adults and deliver critical nutrients to coastal ecosystems as they move between fresh and marine waters. Many once abundant salmon populations have been extirpated or are in severe decline relative to historic levels, yet the strength of the relationship between habitat loss and population productivity has been challenged. In this dissertation, I applied field studies, otolith analyses, and conservation decision science tools to investigate the relative importance of estuarine habitat to salmon populations, with the aim of advancing effective management solutions for these species and their habitats. First, I conducted a two-year field survey of fish communities in the Fraser River estuary, British Columbia, Canada comparing the species richness and relative catch amongst three distinct habitats. I found that this impacted estuary still supported a rich community of migratory marine and anadromous fishes, as well as resident estuarine fish species. Each habitat supported some unique fish assemblages, with eelgrass supporting the highest catch and diversity of fishes overall but brackish marsh supporting the highest and most consistent catch of salmonids. Next, I used otolith analyses to quantify the residency and growth of juvenile Chinook salmon in the estuary. I found that for one of the only two remaining Chinook salmon stocks abundant enough to still support limited harvest in the Fraser River, the estuary provides vital rearing habitat, with juveniles residing in the estuary for an average of 6 weeks, during which time they had mean daily growth rates of 0.57 mm fork length, approximating growth in healthier estuarine systems. The use of these habitats by juvenile Chinook salmon had not been quantified previously, so these findings directly inform management of this population, which was recently designated as Threatened by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. Finally, I applied Priority Threat Management, a conservation decision science framework, to predict the future status of Pacific salmon in the lower Fraser River and identify the most cost-effective conservation solutions out of a suite of alternative management strategies. On our current trajectory none of these populations were predicted to be assessed as ‘green’ or healthy status at the end of 25 years. In contrast, implementation of broad scale habitat restoration, protection, and watershed management could considerably improve the viability of the lower Fraser to support these salmon, such that many (14/19) of these populations would have a >50% likelihood of being assessed as healthy. Together, this research provides novel evidence of active and selective use of estuarine habitats by juvenile salmon, reliance on estuarine habitat for early marine growth by juvenile Chinook salmon, and a direct link between habitat health and population status for lower Fraser River salmon populations. / Graduate / 2023-04-13