Thesis (MScEng (Civil Engineering))- -University of Stellenbosch, 2011 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The limited water supply and an increasing water demand means that the effective management of water resources becomes much more important than in the past. The implementation of water demand management / water conservation (WDM/WC) projects are usually used as a crisis management tool to reduce immediate water shortage and to allow time for the planning and construction of infrastructure to increase water supply. It is however possible to incorporate WDM/WC into integrated water resource management and to use WDM/WC as an economic viable option for the upgrade of infrastructure to balance supply and demand. Existing economic evaluation methods to compare different options with each other were used to evaluate WDM/WC measures. Literature showed that to perform an economic evaluation of WDM/WC measures, the costs associated with the implementation of the WDM/WC measures, as well as the expected water saving from the implementation of the WDM/WC measure, must be known. Models were developed to estimate the expected water savings from different WDM/WC measures. The economic impacts of specific WDM/WC measures were investigated by using these models. Different economic models were developed to perform an economic evaluation of WDM/WC measures. WDM/WC measures were evaluated in terms of its economic feasibility. Economical evaluations of WDM/WC measures were also done as an alternative to the upgrading of infrastructure. In the last evaluation, the financing of WDM/WC measures through the deferral of capital cost, was investigated. Case studies from literature, where costs as well as water savings were available, were used to evaluate these WDM/WC measures by using the developed economic models. Cost estimates for the upgrading of infrastructure, to supply an equal amount of water as the water saving achieved in each case study, were done. These estimates were used to compare WDM/WC measure with the upgrading of infrastructure. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Daar word al hoe meer druk op bestaande hulpbronne geplaas om voldoende water te lewer. Die fokus skuif na effektiewe bestuur van hierdie hulpbronne. Wateraanvraagbestuur/ Waterbewaring (WAB/WB) projekte word geïmplementeer om krisisse van water tekorte aan te spreek en tyd te wen om nuwe hulpbronne te ontwikkel. Dit is wel moontlik om WAB/WB in geïntegreerde waterbron bestuur in te sluit en WAB/WB as ʼn ekonomiese alternatief tot kapitale investering aan te wend. Om die ekonomiese aspekte van WAB/WB te ondersoek, is daar op bestaande ekonomiese evaluerings metodes gefokus om verskillende opsies met mekaar te vergelyk. Uit die literatuur is gevind dat die belangrikste aspekte vir die ontleding van WAB/WB alternatiewe i.t.v. hul ekonomiese waarde, die koste van implementering van die WAB/WB alternatief is en die waterbesparing wat deur die implementering van die WAB/WB alternatief verkry word. WAB/WB modelle is ontwikkel om die verwagte water besparing van bepaalde WAB/WB alternatiewe te beraam. Die moontlike ekonomiese impak van bepaalde WAB/WB alternatiewe is deur die gebruik van hierdie modelle ondersoek. Ekonomiese evaluerings modelle is opgestel om WAB/WB alternatiewe te ontleed. WAB/WB alternatiewe kan as ʼn ekonomiese haalbare projek geïmplementeer word waar die kostes van die waterbesparings meer as die kapitale koste van die projek is. WAB/WB alternatiewe kan ook meer ekonomies as die ontwikkeling van nuwe bronne of opgradering van ʼn bestaande netwerk wees. Laastens is die moontlikheid om WAB/WB as ʼn alternatief te finansier deur die besparing wat bereik kan word deur ʼn kapitale projek uit te stel, ondersoek. Gevalle studies uit die literatuur, waar die kostes en waterbesparings bekend is, is ontleed deur van hierdie ekonomiese evaluerings modelle gebruik te maak. Vir elk van die gevalle studies is ʼn koste vir die opgradering van die infrastruktuur beraam om die ekwivalente hoeveelheid water te voorsien as wat deur die WAB/WB alternatief bespaar is.

This study explores the social, technological economic, and environmental development of single-family residential water conservation programs at the Austin Water Utility and asks: What makes a conservation program successful? I hypothesize that water conservation programs will be successful if both institutional-producer goals and citizen-consumer goals are satisfied. While the findings suggest that this may be partially true, it also has become clear that my original actor-network model was too simple to predict the various types of influences on program success. Not only did I find other significant ‘actors’ involved in water conservation, I also found that utility and participant groups themselves represent a wide variety of interests. This study seeks to answer the research question by creating a series of narratives that critically explore water infrastructure and water conservation programs in Austin, Texas. Through a methodological lens referred to as ‘critical constructivism,’ I use mixed methods to analyze and interpret historic documents, interviews, and quantitative data as primary sources. Literature from Science and Technology Studies (STS) are used as secondary sources. This study will add to a body of knowledge that describes how and why we manage our environmental resources. The subject of conservation is especially relevant as urban growth continues with fewer affordable opportunities to increase regional water supplies. As we enter an era of expected water conflict, knowing how to conserve water effectively will help provide more opportunities for sharing a common resource amongst communities, industry, agriculture, and the environment. / text

台灣現代零售通路之省電燈泡需求管理 / THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT OF ENERGY-SAVING BULBS IN TAIWAN MAJOR MODERN RETAIL CHANNELS: THE FORECAST PERSPECTIVE

A water distribution system (WDS) design deals with achieving the desired network performance. WDS design can involve new and / or existing network redesigns in order to keep up with the required service performance. Very often, WDS design is expensive, which encourages cost effectiveness in the required investments. Moreover, WDS design is associated with adverse environmental implications such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to energy consumption. GHGs are associated with global warming and climate change. Climate change is generally understood to cause reduction in water available at the sources and increase water demand. Urbanization that takes into account factors such as demographics (population ageing, household occupancy rates, etc.) and other activities are associated with water demand changes. In addition to the aforementioned issues, the challenge of meeting the required hydraulic performance of WDSs is worsened by the uncertainties that are associated with WDS parameters (e.g., future water demand). With all the factors mentioned here, mitigation and adaptive measures are considered essential to improve WDS performance in the long-term planning horizon. In this thesis, different formulations of a WDS design methodologies aimed at mitigating or adapting the systems to the effects of future changes such as those of climate change and urbanization are explored. Cost effective WDS designs that mitigate climate change by reducing GHG emissions have been investigated. Also, water demand management (DM) intervention measures, i.e., domestic rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems and water saving appliance schemes (WSASs) have been incorporated in the design of WDSs in an attempt to mitigate, adapt to or counteract the likely effects of future climate change and urbanization. Furthermore, flexibility has been introduced in the long-term WDS design under future uncertainty. The flexible methodology is adaptable to uncertain WDS parameters (i.e., future water demand in this thesis) thereby improving the WDS economic cost and hydraulic performance (resilience). The methodology is also complimented by strategically incorporating DM measures to further enhance the WDS performance under water demand uncertainty. The new methodologies presented in this thesis were successfully tested on case studies. Finally, conclusions and recommendations for possible further research work are made. There are potential benefits (e.g., cost savings, additional resilience, and lower GHG emissions) of incorporating an environmental objective and DM interventions in WDS design. Flexibility and DM interventions add value in the design of WDSs under uncertainty.

Cette thèse étudie les liens entre développement et changement climatique dans les pays méditerranéens afin de mieux comprendre les processus et les interactions spécifiquement en jeux dans cette région, en particuliers dans les pays du Maghreb et du Mashrek. Dans le chapitre 1, nous étudions l’état des connaissances scientifiques sur le changement climatique au niveau global et au niveau méditerranéen. Cela nous permet d’aborder le problème des projections climatiques et d’analyser les résultats pour le bassin méditerranéen. Sur cette base, dans le chapitre 2, en rapprochant les projections de changement climatique et le contexte local du développement, nous mettons en évidence une vulnérabilité relativement plus élevée des pays méditerranéens en développement. Nous analysons dans le chapitre 3, les méthodes et outils permettant d’appréhender le coût du changement climatique et en déduisons des enseignements pour les pays méditerranéens. Afin d’aller plus loin dans la caractérisation et la compréhension des mécanismes en jeux au niveau méditerranéen, nous proposons, dans le chapitre 4, des approches économétriques en longue période sur données de panel de l’impact des variables climatiques sur d’une part le niveau de PIB par tête et d’autre part les rendements céréaliers. Les résultats mettent en évidence que même les économies des pays riches du bassin méditerranéen sont sensibles aux tendances climatiques, au moins sur la période 1950-2000, bien qu’ils le soient beaucoup moins que les pays en développement de la rive Sud et Est. Par ailleurs, nous confirmons que l’agriculture est un canal de diffusion majeur des effets du changement climatique dans l’économie, en particulier dans les pays en développement. La question de l’eau apparait centrale dans le traitement de l’adaptation au changement climatique. Ainsi, dans le chapitre 5, nous analysons l’état de la ressource en eau, les modes de gouvernance actuels et les options d’adaptation qui s’offrent aux pays arides. Nous présentons un exercice de simulation des demandes futures par secteur dans les pays d’Afrique du Nord, ce qui nous permet d’obtenir des ordres de grandeur sur les bénéfices à attendre des différentes options de politique qui pourront être suivies par les pouvoirs publics. Nous montrons que la gestion de la demande en eau est un des leviers déterminants de l’adaptation au changement climatique dans les pays méditerranéens et que sa mise en œuvre repose avant tout sur des réformes de gouvernance. / This thesis studies the links between development and climate change in Mediterranean countries to better understand the processes and interactions in specific games in the region, particularly in the Maghreb and the Mashreq. In Chapter 1, we review the state of scientific knowledge on climate change at global level and at Mediterranean level. This allows us to address the problem of climate projections and analyze the results for the Mediterranean. On this basis, in Chapter 2, by comparing the projections of climate change and the local context of development, we highlight a relatively higher vulnerability of the developing Mediterranean countries. We discuss in Chapter 3, methods and tools to estimate the economic cost of climate change and deduce lessons for the Mediterranean countries. To go further in the characterization and understanding of the mechanisms at play in the Mediterranean, we propose, in Chapter 4, econometric approaches using long term panel data. We test the impact of climate variables on, first, the level of GDP per capita and, second, on cereal yields. The results show that even rich Mediterranean countries are sensitive to climate change - at least over the period 1950-2000 - although much less than Southern and Eastern developing countries of the Mediterranean basin. Furthermore, we confirm that agriculture is a major channel of climate change impact in the economy, particularly in developing countries. The issue of water appears in a key parameter in adaptation to climate change. Thus, in Chapter 5, we analyze the state of water resources, the existing modes of governance and adaptation options available to Mediterranean arid countries. We present a simulation of future demands by sector in North Africa, enabling us to obtain orders of magnitude of the expected benefits of different policy options that can be followed by the government. We show that water demand management is one of the key tools to adapt to climate change in Mediterranean countries and that its implementation depends primarily on governance reforms.

Orientador: Cláudio Antônio Di Mauro / Resumo: A criação de subsídios informacionais precisos e transparentes para gestão do saneamento e recursos hídricos é uma perspectiva intrínseca do planejamento e execução de políticas cidadãs, que atendem as exigências da sociedade para o meio ambiente equilibrado e saudável a todos. Entender como se comportam as demandas de água e sua distribuição espacial é um desafio constante que aprimora os métodos de ações; principalmente se o contexto for de crise hídrica e primazia por desenvolvimento sustentável com uso racional dos recursos naturais. Este trabalho utiliza os dados do cadastro de faturamento de água do Departamento Municipal de Água e Esgoto (DMAE), no tocante ao consumo domiciliar micromedido em Uberlândia (MG) – Brasil, no período 2006-2016. Informações como: quantidade de hidrômetros, economias, volume consumido dos bairros e suas habitações, e análises estatísticas da série histórica (organizados por setores: norte, sul, leste, oeste e centro), permitiram o diagnóstico da demanda residencial de água na cidade. Discutir e propor instrumentos para melhor controle do abastecimento e uso da água contribui estrategicamente no saneamento e promoção urbana/ambiental; visto que a requisição per capita por recursos hídricos no município é alta e cresce em ritmos alarmantes, revelando uso e apropriação inadequados. A metodologia da pesquisa inclui consulta a referências bibliográficas sobre o tema; criação do software experimental “CONTÁGUA” para concepção da base de dados; empr... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The creation of precise and transparent informational subsidies for the management of sanitation and water resources is an intrinsic perspective of the planning and execution of citizen policies that meet the demands of society for a balanced and healthy environment for all. Understanding how water demands and their spatial distribution behave is a constant challenge that improves methods of action; especially if the context is water crisis and primacy for sustainable development with rational use of natural resources. This work uses the water billing data of the Municipal Department of Water and Sewage (DMAE), in relation to household consumption micromeasured in Uberlândia (MG) - Brazil, in the period 2006-2016. Information such as the number of hydrometers, economys of water, volume consumed in the neighborhoods and their dwellings, and statistical analyzes of the historical series (organized by sectors: north, south, east, west and center) allowed the diagnosis of residential water demand in the city. Discussing and proposing instruments for better control of water supply and use contributes strategically to sanitation and urban/environmental promotion; since the per capita requisition for water resources in the municipality is high and grows at alarming rates, revealing inadequate use and appropriation. The research methodology includes reference to bibliographical references on the subject; creation of the experimental software "CONTÁGUA" for designing the database; use... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Este trabalho objetivou determinar a disponibilidade do aqüífero Serra Grande e estabelecer as diretrizes para o seu gerenciamento sustentável no município de Picos, localizado no sudeste do Estado do Piauí. Principal sistema de água subterrânea da região, este aqüífero é o único com capacidade para atender as demandas futuras da população. Porém, a falta de regras básicas na exploração dos seus recursos poderá comprometer sua sustentabilidade. O desenvolvimento deste estudo teve início com a elaboração do modelo conceitual da área e a análise das condições de uso dos recursos hídricos. Nesta etapa, verificando-se que os conceitos hidrogeológicos vigentes consideravam apenas o limite físico do sistema para definir sua disponibilidade, foi estabelecido um novo princípio para determinação do volume de recursos que pode ser explorado de um aqüífero, denominado de princípio sustentável, tendo como base os fatores econômicos envolvidos na sua exploração. Para determinação da disponibilidade física e econômica do aqüífero Serra Grande, primeiramente, foi estimado o déficit hídrico acumulado desde o início da exploração do sistema, estabelecida sua relação com a posição do nível potenciométrico e calculado o custo atual de produção da água. Em seguida, foram traçados dois cenários futuros para a exploração dos recursos hídricos no município, representando os modelos de gestão da oferta e gestão da demanda, para o período de 15 e 50 anos. Posteriormente, foi construído um modelo matemático para representar o sistema de subsuperfície, no qual foi simulada a evolução futura do nível d’água. Com base nos valores obtidos, foi estimado o volume de água a ser produzido do armazenamento, a quantidade de recursos que deverão ser incorporados ao sistema e o custo futuro de produção. Os resultados mostraram que o aqüífero precisará incorporar um volume significativo de recursos, que talvez não esteja disponível na região estudada, e que a elevação real do custo da água poderá comprometer a capacidade de pagamento da população para dispor destes recursos. Verificada esta situação, foram definidas as medidas que precisam ser implementadas para o gerenciamento sustentável do aqüífero estudado, de modo a garantir o abastecimento futuro do município e da região. Com a elaboração deste trabalho, concluiu-se que o aqüífero Serra Grande não é “intensamente explorado" em Picos, porém é mal explorado atualmente, o que deverá provocar prejuízos na exploração futura dos seus recursos. / This work’s goals were to determinate the availability of the Serra Grande aquifer and to establish the governess for its sustainable management in the municipality of Picos, located on the southeast of Piauí State. This aquifer, the region’s most important groundwater system, has an unique capacity of fulfilling the population’s future demand. However, the absence of basic rules for the exploitation of its resources would compromise its sustainability. The study began with the development of the conceptual model of the area and the analyses of the water resources use. During this step, after verify that the hydrological actual concepts only observe the physical limit of the system to define its availability, it was established a new principle to determinate the volume of resources that can be exploited from an aquifer, named sustainable principle, based on the economical factors involved in its exploitation. In order to determine the physical and economical availability of the Serra Grande aquifer, first, it was estimated the water deficit accumulated since the begging exploitation of the system, established its relationship with the potenciometric level and was calculated the present cost of water production. Later on, two hypothetical scenarios concerning future exploration of water resources were drawn, representing the models of supply and demand management, for a period of 15 and 50 years. Furthermore, a mathematic model was built to represent the subsurface system, which was simulated the evolution of the water level. Based on the values found, it was estimated the amount of water that should be produced from storage, the quantity of resources that have to be incorporated to the system and the future production cost. Moreover, the results showed that the aquifer will need to incorporate a meaningful quantity of resources, that may be not available in the studied region, and that the real increase of the cost of the water would compromise the payment capacity of the population to dispose those resources. After verify this situation, it was defined the actions that must be taken for the sustainable management of the studied aquifer, to guarantee the future water supply of the municipality and the region. In conclusion, this work confirmed that the Serra Grande aquifer is not “overexploited" in Picos, instead, it is not being correctly exploited, which will negatively affect the future exploitation of its resources.

Após a divulgação recente pela Petrobrás, da descoberta de uma grande quantidade de Gás Natural (GN) na bacia de Santos, as políticas de incentivo ao seu consumo e conseqüente aumento de sua participação na matriz energética nacional ganham força. Aliada a isto, a busca crescente da adoção dos conceitos do Desenvolvimento Sustentável (DS) e do Planejamento Integrado de Recursos (PIR) na utilização dos recursos energéticos em favor da sociedade, necessita da implementação de novos métodos de abordagem dos usos destes recursos de forma integrada. Este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar a contribuição do GN no Setor Elétrico. O estudo será feito através de uma análise de cenários de expansão do mercado do gás no estado de São Paulo a partir da previsão indicativa de usinas termelétricas do Plano Decenal de expansão do Setor Elétrico. Para isto, serão estudados os usos do GN diretamente associados à energia elétrica no país: geração termelétrica, cogeração industrial e aquecimento residencial de água para banho. Após a apresentação dos usos e suas tecnologias, será proposta a metodologia para a execução deste estudo. A metodologia será baseada nos aspectos de Consumo de Gás Natural, Custo de Investimento e Emissão de CO2. Será então desenvolvido um estudo de caso aplicado à região central do estado de São Paulo, nas proximidades do Gasoduto Bolívia Brasil (GASBOL), região com alto grau de industrialização e infra-estrutura, e próxima dos principais pontos da malha de Gás Natural existente no país. Os resultados apontam para a importância da integração entre os planejamentos dos setores de GN e EE, dando mais atenção aos usos distribuídos do GN, que possuem maior rendimento e contribuem ainda mais para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável. / After the recent announcement by Petrobrás about the discovery on a large amount of Natural Gas (NG) in the Santos Field, consumption incentive policies and the expectation about its growth on national energy matrix are taking place again. Besides, the growing search towards the Sustainable Development (SD) and Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) concepts on energetic resources utilization at service of society needs new integrated resources utilization approach methods. This dissertation intends to study the contribution of Natural Gas use on Electric Energy Sector. The study is based on a market expansion scenarios analysis applied to the São Paulo NG market starting from the indicative thermoelectric plants planning presented on the Electric Brazilian Sector Expansion Decade Plan. For this, the straightly related to EE uses of NG: thermoelectric generation, industrial cogeneration and residential water heating are being discussed. After the uses and their technology discussion, the methodology for this study execution will be presented. It is based on NG Consumption, Investment Cost and CO2 Emission. It will be then presented a case study applied to the central region of São Paulo State, on the neighbors of Bolivia-Brazil Gas Duct (GASBOL), a region with good industrialization and infrastructure degree, near to the most important points of Brazilian NG mesh. The results show the importance of the integration between NG and EE sectors planning, with special attention to the distributed uses of NG, more efficient and better contributing to the sustainable development.

Após a divulgação recente pela Petrobrás, da descoberta de uma grande quantidade de Gás Natural (GN) na bacia de Santos, as políticas de incentivo ao seu consumo e conseqüente aumento de sua participação na matriz energética nacional ganham força. Aliada a isto, a busca crescente da adoção dos conceitos do Desenvolvimento Sustentável (DS) e do Planejamento Integrado de Recursos (PIR) na utilização dos recursos energéticos em favor da sociedade, necessita da implementação de novos métodos de abordagem dos usos destes recursos de forma integrada. Este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar a contribuição do GN no Setor Elétrico. O estudo será feito através de uma análise de cenários de expansão do mercado do gás no estado de São Paulo a partir da previsão indicativa de usinas termelétricas do Plano Decenal de expansão do Setor Elétrico. Para isto, serão estudados os usos do GN diretamente associados à energia elétrica no país: geração termelétrica, cogeração industrial e aquecimento residencial de água para banho. Após a apresentação dos usos e suas tecnologias, será proposta a metodologia para a execução deste estudo. A metodologia será baseada nos aspectos de Consumo de Gás Natural, Custo de Investimento e Emissão de CO2. Será então desenvolvido um estudo de caso aplicado à região central do estado de São Paulo, nas proximidades do Gasoduto Bolívia Brasil (GASBOL), região com alto grau de industrialização e infra-estrutura, e próxima dos principais pontos da malha de Gás Natural existente no país. Os resultados apontam para a importância da integração entre os planejamentos dos setores de GN e EE, dando mais atenção aos usos distribuídos do GN, que possuem maior rendimento e contribuem ainda mais para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável. / After the recent announcement by Petrobrás about the discovery on a large amount of Natural Gas (NG) in the Santos Field, consumption incentive policies and the expectation about its growth on national energy matrix are taking place again. Besides, the growing search towards the Sustainable Development (SD) and Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) concepts on energetic resources utilization at service of society needs new integrated resources utilization approach methods. This dissertation intends to study the contribution of Natural Gas use on Electric Energy Sector. The study is based on a market expansion scenarios analysis applied to the São Paulo NG market starting from the indicative thermoelectric plants planning presented on the Electric Brazilian Sector Expansion Decade Plan. For this, the straightly related to EE uses of NG: thermoelectric generation, industrial cogeneration and residential water heating are being discussed. After the uses and their technology discussion, the methodology for this study execution will be presented. It is based on NG Consumption, Investment Cost and CO2 Emission. It will be then presented a case study applied to the central region of São Paulo State, on the neighbors of Bolivia-Brazil Gas Duct (GASBOL), a region with good industrialization and infrastructure degree, near to the most important points of Brazilian NG mesh. The results show the importance of the integration between NG and EE sectors planning, with special attention to the distributed uses of NG, more efficient and better contributing to the sustainable development.

Travel demand Management (TDM) focuses on improving the efficiency of the transportation system through changing traveler's travel behavior rather than expanding the infrastructure. An employer based integrated TDM program generally includes strategies designed to change the commuter's travel behavior in terms of mode choice, time choice and travel frequency. Research on TDM has focused on the evaluation of the effectiveness of TDM program to report progress and find effective strategies. Another research area, identified as high-priority research need by TRB TDM innovation and research symposium 1994 [Transportation Research Circular, 1994], is to develop tools to predict the impact of TDM strategies in the future. These tools are necessary for integrating TDM into the transportation planning process and developing realistic expectations. Most previous research on TDM impact evaluation was worksite-based, retrospective, and focused on only one or more aspects of TDM strategies. That research is generally based on survey data with small sample size due to lack of detailed information on TDM programs and promotions and commuter travel behavior patterns, which cast doubts on its findings because of potential small sample bias and self-selection bias. Additionally, the worksite-based approach has several limitations that affect the accuracy and application of analysis results. Based on the Washington State Commute Trip Reduction (CTR) dataset, this dissertation focuses on analyzing the participation rates of compressed work week schedules and telecommuting for the CTR affected employees, modeling the determinants of commuter's compressed work week schedules and telecommuting choices, and analyzing the quantitative impacts of an integrated TDM program on individual commuter's mode choice. The major findings of this dissertation may have important policy implications and help TDM practitioners better understand the effectiveness of the TDM strategies in terms of person trip and vehicle trip reduction. The models developed in this dissertation may be used to evaluate the impacts of an existing TDM program. More importantly, they may be incorporated into the regional transportation model to reflect the TDM impacts in the transportation planning process.