Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the first essay of this thesis, a medium scale DSGE model is developed and estimated for the South African economy. When used for forecasting, the model is found to outperform private sector economists when forecasting CPI inflation, GDP growth and the policy rate over certain horizons. In the second essay, the benchmark DSGE model is extended to include the yield on South African 10-year government bonds. The model is then used to decompose the 10-year yield spread into (1) the structural shocks that contributed to its evolution during the inflation targeting regime of the South African Reserve Bank, as well as (2) an expected yield and a term premium. In addition, it is found that changes in the South African term premium may predict future real economic activity. Finally, the need for DSGE models to take account of financial frictions became apparent during the recent global financial crisis. As a result, the final essay incorporates a stylised banking sector into the benchmark DSGE model described above. The optimal response of the South African Reserve Bank to financial shocks is then analysed within the context of this structural model.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Microeconometric techniques have improved understanding of South Africa’s labour market substantially in the last two decades. This dissertation adds to this evidence by considering three separate labour market questions, with particular attention to data quality and the application of credible methodology. Firstly, wage flexibility is investigated. Whereas selected previous microeconometric evidence suggests that wage setters in South Africa are highly responsive to external local labour market circumstances, it is not corroborated by macroeconomic and other microeconometric studies. This question is interrogated again, with particular attention to methodological issues in wage curve estimation. The latter is a robust negative relationship between individual wages and local unemployment rates, found in most countries, except where bargaining is highly centralized. Adding time variation to the data allows controls for spatial heterogeneity to be introduced, leading to the conclusion that wages are really inflexible in the short-run. Rather, the trade-off between wages and local unemployment that previous work has found represents a long-run spatial equilibrium. This finding is robust to instrumentation for reverse causality and the measurement error that is associated with choosing incorrect labour market demarcations. Secondly, the reliability of retrospective data related to childhood is investigated, with the view of estimating the long-run influence that early life circumstances have on adult outcomes. Two indicators, parental education and subjective rankings of childhood socioeconomic status, are evaluated. The first set of indicators has poor response rates, as many South African children live without their parents. Where respondents do volunteer this information, they answer consistently across waves. Subjective rankings have higher response rates, as they require respondents to provide information about their own past, and not about those of their parents. However, individuals’ assessments are inconsistent over time, despite being asked about the same point in the life cycle. They tend to change their view of the past in line with adjustments to perceptions of their position in the village income distribution and subjective well-being, providing clear evidence of anchoring. Instrumental variables analysis has been used in previous studies to account for measurement error in subjective data. However, if anchoring affects all assessments of the past and potential outcome variables (such as employment), microeconometric techniques will yield biased estimates of the effects of childhood on long-run outcomes. Finally, age-period-cohort models for South African labour force participation are estimated. This chapter is the first contribution to relax the assumption that cohort differences must remain permanent over the life cycle. Monte-Carlo simulation studies show that highly interactive specifications can partially recover the true underlying process. Using a variety of techniques (imposing behavioural restrictions and atheoretical approaches), this study shows that cohort effects in labour force participation can be temporary in South Africa, though more data is required to verify this conclusively. Regardless of technique, a distinct surge in labour force participation is noted for the group born after 1975. Pertinently, the combination of testable assumptions and highly flexible estimation can yield credible age-period-cohort profiles, despite the many disputes noted in the literature. Previous evidence of a surge in participation for the post-1975 cohort can now be shown to be temporary rather than a part of a long-run generational increase. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Mikro-ekonometriese tegnieke het kennis oor die Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmark aansienlik uitgebrei in die afgelope twee dekades. Hierdie proefskrif dra by tot hierdie bewyse deur drie afsonderlike arbeidsmark vraagstukke te beskou, met die klem op datagehalte en toepassing van geloofwaardige metodologie. Eerstens word die kwessie van loonaanpasbaarheid beskou. Waar sekere vorige mikro-ekonometriese bewyse aandui dat loonbepalers in Suid-Afrika sterk op eksterne plaaslike arbeidsmarktoestande reageer, word hierdie bevinding nie deur makro-ekonomiese en ander mikro-ekonometriese studies ondersteun nie. Hierdie vraag word dus opnuut ondersoek, met die klem op metodologiese kwessies wat ‘n invloed op die beraming van die loonkurwe het. Laasgenoemde is die negatiewe verhouding tussen individuele lone en plaaslike werkloosheidskoerse wat in die meeste lande geld, behalwe daar waar loonbedinging sterk gesentraliseer is. Deur tydsvariasie by die data te voeg, is dit moontlik om vir heterogeniteit oor ruimte voorsiening te maak, wat tot die gevolgtrekking lei dat lone inderdaad onbuigsaam oor die korttermyn is. Die afruiling tussen lone en plaaslike werkloosheidskoerse wat vorige navorsing bevind het, verteenwoordig eerder ‘n langtermyn ruimtelike ewewig. Hierdie bevinding is nie sensitief vir instrumentasie nie. Laasgenoemde is nodig om voorsiening te maak vir moontlike sydigheid wat kan ontstaan indien die rigting van kousaliteit omgekeerd is, sowel as metingsfoute wat daarmee gepaard gaan as navorsers die plaaslike arbeidsmark verkeerd definiëer. Tweedens word die betroubaarheid van data wat volwassenes vra om hulle kinderomstandighede te onthou, ondersoek. Die uiteindelike doel is om vas te stel of omstandighede vroeg in die lewe ‘n invloed op die uitkomstes van volwassenes het. Twee veranderlikes, naamlik ouers se opvoedingsvlakke en die subjektiewe terugskouende sosioekonomiese rang in respondente se kinderdae, word geëvalueer. Die eerste stel veranderlikes is onderhewig aan lae reaksiekoerse omdat ‘n aansienlike hoeveelheid Suid-Afrikaanse kinders sonder een of beide ouers grootword. Waar respondente wel hierdie inligting verskaf is individue se antwoorde konsekwent tussen twee golwe van ‘n paneelopname. Die vraag na die subjektiewe rang lewer beter reaksiekoerse omdat dit vereis dat respondente inligting oor hulle eie verlede verskaf, en nie oor dié van hul ouers nie. Nietemin is individue se antwoorde strydig oor tyd, ten spyte daarvan dat hulle inligting oor dieselfde tydstip in die lewenssiklus moet verskaf. Hulle is geneig om hulle opinies oor die verlede in lyn met veranderende persepsies van hul huidige posisie in die dorpsinkomsteverdeling, sowel as hulle eie subjektiewe welstand, aan te pas. Dit verskaf dus ‘n sterk aanduiding dat mense hulle antwoorde oor die verlede in huidige toestande anker. Instrumentele veranderlike analise is in vorige studies aangewend om voorsiening te maak vir metingsfoute in subjektiewe data. Indien inligting oor die verlede, asook moontlik uitkomsteveranderlikes (soos indiensname), geanker word in huidige persepsies, sal mikroekonometriese tegnieke egter steeds sydige beramings van die impak van kinderdae op langtermyn uitkomstes bied. Laastens, word sogenaamde ouderdom-periode-kohort modelle op Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmarkdeelname data toegepas. Hierdie hoofstuk is die eerste bydrae wat die aanname dat kohortverskille permanent moet bly oor die lewenssiklus laat vaar. Monte-Carlo simulasies dui aan dat hoogs interaktiewe spesifikasies die onderliggende proses gedeeltelik kan weerspieël. Verskeie tegnieke word aangewend (insluitend dié wat gedragsaannames afdwing asook ateoretiese benaderings) wat wys dat kohorteffekte in arbeidsmarkdeelname tydelik kan wees. Tog word meer data benodig om hierdie stelling sonder twyfel te bevestig. Onafhanklik van die tegniek wat gebruik word, is dit duidelik dat ‘n skerp toename in arbeidsmarkdeelname plaasgevind het vir die groep wat na 1975 gebore is. Verder is dit beduidend dat die kombinasie van toetsbare aannames en hoogs buigsame beramers ‘n geloofwaardige oplossing vir die ouderdoms-periode-kohort probleem verskaf, ten spyte van die vele twispunte wat in die literatuur uitgelig word. Vorige bewyse van ‘n toename in arbeidsmagdeelname vir die post-1975 kohort kan nou as ‘n tydelike tendens bestempel word, eerder as ‘n deel van die langtermyn toename oor generasies.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation considers the use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for the analysis of South African macroeconomic business cycle phenomena. It includes four separate, but interrelated parts, which follow a logical sequence. The rst part motivates the use of these models before establishing the theoretical foundations for these models. The theoretical foundations are accompanied by detailed derivations that are used to construct a model for a small open economy. The second part considers the properties of South African macroeconomic data that may be used to estimate the parameters in these models. It includes a discussion of the variables that may be included in such a model, as well as various methods that may be used to extract the business cycle. Thereafter, the sample size for the dataset is established, after investigating for possible structural breaks in the rst two moments of the data, using various univariate and multivariate techniques. The nal chapter of this part contains an investigation into the measures of core in ation, whereby a comparison of trimmed means, dynamic factor models and various wavelet decompositions are applied to data for South Africa. The third part considers the application of the dataset that was identi ed in part two, in a DSGE model that incorporates features that are typical of small open economies. It includes a discussion that relates to the role of the exchange rate in these models, which is found to contain key information. In addition, this part also includes a optimal policy investigation, which considers the reaction function of central bank. The nal part of this thesis considers more recent advances that have been applied to DSGE models for the South African economy. It includes an example of a nonlinear model that is estimated with the aid of a particle lter, which is then used for forecasting purposes. The forecasting results of both linear and nonlinear versions of the model are then compared with the results from various Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian VAR models. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif oorweeg die gebruik van Dinamiese Stogastiese Algemene Ewewig (Engels: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)) modelle vir die analise van besigheidsiklus gebeure in die Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomie. Dit bestaan uit vier aparte dog onderling verwante dele wat in « logiese ontwikkeling vorm. Die eerste deel motiveer die gebruik van dié modelle en daarna word die teoretiese onderbou van die modelle daargestel. Die teoretiese onderbou word aangevul met gedetaileerde stappe van die a eiding van die verhoudings wat gebruik word om « model vir « klein oop ekonomie saam te stel. Die tweede deel oorweeg die eienskappe van Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomiese data wat relevant is vir « ekonometriese model in hierdie konteks. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die veranderlikes wat vir so « model gebruik kan word, asook « bespreking van die verskeie metodes wat gebruik kan word om die besigheidsiklus uit die data te identi seer. Die steekproefgrootte van die data word dan vasgestel, ná die moontlikheid van strukturele onderbrekings van tendens in die eerste en tweede momente van die data ondersoek is met behulp van verskeie enkel en meervoudige-veranderlike tegnieke. Die laaste hoofstuk van dié deel is « studie van verskeie maatstawwe van kern in asie (core in ation), waar « vergelyking getref word tussen die resultate van die volgende metodes toegepas op Suid Afrikaanse data: afgesnede gemiddeldes (trimmed means), dinamiese faktor modelle en verskeie golfvormige onderverdelings (wavelet decompositions). Die derde deel gebruik die datastel, wat in deel twee ontwikkel is, in die passing van « DSGE model wat die tipiese eienskappe van « klein oop ekonomie inkorporeer. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die rol van die wisselkoers in hierdie tipe modelle, en daar word empiries bevind dat die wisselkoers belangrike inligting bevat. Hierdie deel sluit ook « ondersoek in van optimale beleid in terme van die reaksie funksie van die sentrale bank. Die laaste deel van die proefskrif bestudeer die resultate van onlangse ontwikkellinge in DSGE modelle wat toegepas word op die Suid Afrikaanse ekonomie. Dit sluit « voorbeeld van « nie-liniêre model wat met behulp van « partikel lter (particle lter) geskat word en gebruik word vir vooruitskattings. Die vooruitskattings uit beide die liniêre en nie-liniêre modelle word dan vergelyk met dié verkry uit verskeie Vektor

Thesis (MComm (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in South African financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationship between cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The study is based on the original business cycle framework of Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell, but incorporates recent contributions by Australian economists Don Harding and Adrian Pagan, as well as the work of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York. Part I of the thesis is concerned with the characteristics of cycles in financial variables within the South African context. The first chapter presents a taxonomy of the concepts of classical, deviation and growth rate cycles in order to establish a simple reference framework for cycle concepts. At this point the concept of a ‘turning point cycle’ is introduced, with particular focus on the non-parametric method of turning point identification, following Harding and Pagan’s recent translation of the original work of Burns and Mitchell into a modern version with a sound statistical basis. With the turning points identified the dissertation proceeds to an exposition of descriptive measures of expansion and contraction phases. The second chapter entails an empirical report on descriptive results for amplitude and duration characteristics of cycle phases in the different financial variables, with separate reports for classical cycles and growth rate cycles. Chapter two concludes with a series of tables in which the behaviour of cycle phases are compared for different financial variables. Part II considers financial variables as potential leading indicators of the business cycle in South Africa. Chapter 3 introduces the concept ‘leading indicator’ to this end and distinguishes the original concept from modern, econometric versions. The chapter then introduces a framework for evaluating potential leading indicators, which emphasises two requirements: firstly, broad co-movement between cycles in the proposed leading indicator and the business cycle and, secondly, stability in the number of months between turning points in cycles of the proposed indicator and business cycle turning points. The capacity of potential indicators to meet these criteria is measured via the concordance statistic and the ‘lead profile’ respectively. Chapter four provides the statistical basis for the concordance statistic, after which the empirical results (presented separately for classical and growth rate cycles) are presented. The fifth chapter presents the statistical test for the stability of the interval by which cyclical turning points in the potential indicator lead turning points in the business cycle. Empirical results are presented in both tabular form (the ‘lead profile’) and graphical form (the ‘lead profile chart’). As far as can be determined, this analysis represents the first application of the ‘lead profile’ evaluation to financial variables. Chapter six concludes by presenting a summary of the results and a brief comparison with findings from an econometric study of leading indicators for South Africa.

Thesis (MComm (Economics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / A new political dispensation in 1994 heralded a period of optimism for many ordinary South Africans, who hoped for freedom and an escape from poverty. Since this transition, however, South Africa has registered steady increases in unemployment, which was already high and widespread at that stage. The new policy environment introduced a mix of legislation which changed the way in which South African society was to be structured: separate development was abandoned, the pillars of Apartheid dismantled, and equitable access to education and jobs was enacted. At the same time, the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP), as well as the Growth Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) document addressed, amongst other issues, socioeconomic and labour market disparities. Economic growth was to bolster employment generation. Rising unemployment is, in light of these diverse changes, a source of considerable concern to labour market participants and policymakers alike: the benefits of better understanding the dynamic forces at play are potentially large. Given the many and farreaching changes referred to above, it is a complex task to disentangle specific reasons for the outcomes realised in the labour market, and more so the manner in which these have interacted to arrive at the status quo...

Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 1999. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: lt is internationally accepted that Internet is the trade route of the future. Although Internet trading is still in its infancy the effect of Internet on taxation needs to be adressed. Internet defies geographic borders and leads to the questioning of the principles underlying income tax. Income tax principles are traditionally based on the existence of some form of physical presence (either residency, source of income or that of a permanent establishment) in a jurisdiction before tax can be levied. The fact that Internet can provide substantial economic activity in a jurisdiction without any physical presence, requires interpretation of and/or amendments to the traditional income tax principles. The South African income tax principles are based on the source of income. In this study the impact of Internet on the applicability of the traditional source rules, in terms of the South African Income Tax Act, no. 58 of 1962, was investigated. The study first outlines the principles and methodology laid down by South African courts in determining the source of income. These principles and methodology are then tested in an Internet environment. lt is concluded that Internet requires a reinterpretation of certain of the traditional principles, i.e.: • The fact that a dominant source rule is applied. • The classification of products and services with a digitalised content within the existing principles. • The finding of a physical location when transactions are concluded in cyberspace. • The applicability of certain deemed source rules, i.e. section 9(1 )(a), 9(1)(d), 9(1)(dbis) and certain aspects of section 9(1)(b), in an Internet environment. In obtaining a sollution for South Africa the international initiatives regarding Internet and taxation, under the guidance of the Committee on Fiscal Affairs of the Organisation for Enonomic Co-operation and Development (OECD), were taken into account. The first alternative to the traditional South African source rules that was investigated was the permanent establishment principle, as recommended by the Katz Commission in their Fifth Interim Report. Other alternatives to the permanent establishment principle were also investigated, i.e. the residence principle, formal requirements and an Internet tax. The interim solution for South Africa seems to be the acceptance of the permanent establishment principle. This principle needs interpretation and/or amendment due to the effect of Internet. In this study amendments to the permanent establishment principle are suggested in order to provide the necessary clarity in the Internet environment. A closing remark is made that Internet might well change income tax as we know it today. Internet has the ability to simplify tax systems. None of the income tax alternatives provide simple tax solutions. The tax of the future seems to be some form of indirect tax. Internet is an international medium and addresses international tax issues. South Africa will, by accepting the permanent establishment principle, be in a position to join the co-ordinated efforts towards solving the Internet related tax problems while aiming to protect our tax base. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Internet word internasionaal as die handelsroete van die toekoms beskou. Alhoewel lnternethandel nog in sy kinderskoene is, moet die invloed van Internet op belasting aangespreek word. lnternethandel misken geografiese grense en lei tot die bevraagtekening van die beginsels waarop inkomstebelasting gebaseer is. lnkomstebelastingbeginsels berus tradisioneel op die bestaan van 'n vorm van fisiese teenwoordigheid in 'n jurisdiksie (hetsy verblyf, bron van inkomste of die bestaan van 'n permanentesaak) alvorens belasting gehef kan word. Die feit dat Internet wesenlike ekonomiese aktiwiteite in 'n jurisdiksie kan bewerkstellig sonder dat daar enige fisiese teenwoordigheid is, noodsaak die herinterpretasie van en/of aanpassings aan die tradisionele inkomstebelastingbeginsels. Die Suid-Afrikaanse inkomstebelastingbeginsels berus op die bron van inkomste. In hierdie studie is die invloed van Internet op die toepaslikheid van die tradisionele bronreels, in terme van die lnkomstebelastingwet, no. 58 van 1962, ondersoek. In die studie is die beginsels en reels wat deur die Suid-Afrikaanse howe neergele word by die vasstelling van die bron van inkomste eerstens ontleed. Daarna is die beginsels en reels in die lnternetomgewing getoets. Die afleiding word gemaak dat Internet die herinterpretasie van sekere van die tradisionele beginsels en reels verg, naamlik: • Die feit dat 'n dominante bronreel toegepas word. • Die klassifisering van produkte en dienste met 'n digitale inhoud binne die tradisionele beginsels. • Die vasstelling van 'n fisiese plek indien transaksies in die kuberruimte plaasvind. • Die toepaslikheid van sekere geagtebronreels, naamlik artikel 9(1 )(a), 9(1)(d), 9(1)(dbis) en sekere aspekte van artikel 9(1)(b), in die I nternetomgewing. In die soeke na 'n oplossing vir Suid-Afrika is die internasionale inisiatiewe rondom Internet en belasting, onder leiding van die Fiskale Komitee van die Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in ag geneem. Die eerste alternatief op die tradisionele Suid-Afrikaanse bronreels wat ondersoek is, is die permanantesaak-beginsel, soos voorgestel deur die Katzkommissie in die Vyfde Verslag. Ander alternatiewe wat ook ondersoek is, is die verblyfbeginsel, formele handelinge en 'n lnternetbelasting. Die oplossing vir die hede vir Suid-Afrika blyk die aanvaarding van die permanantesaak-beginsel te wees. Hierdie beginsel verg herinterpretasie en/of aanpassings weens die invloed van Internet. In hierdie studie word aanpassings aan die permanentesaak-beginsel voorgestel ten einde die nodige duidelikheid binne die lnternetomgewing te verskaf. Ter afsluiting word vermeld dat Internet weliswaar die einde mag aandui vir inkomstebelastingstelsels wereldwyd. Internet besit die vermoe om belasting te vereenvoudig. Die inkomstebelasting alternatiewe wat in hierdie studie ondersoek is het nie eenvoudige oplossings gebied nie. Die belasting van die toekoms blyk 'n vorm van indirekte belasting te wees. Internet is 'n internasionale medium en spreek internasionale belastingkwessies aan. Die aanvaarding van die permanentesaak-beginsel sal SuidAfrika in 'n goeie posisie plaas om aan die internasionale inisiatiewe rondom Internet en belasting deel te neem en om terselfdertyd ons belastingbasis te beskerm.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: TAX CONSIDERATIONS OF MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS During the past few years the South African business environment experienced a considerable increase in corporate mergers and acquisitions. At a corporate tax rate of thirty per cent, the tax implications of mergers and acquisitions have an important impact on the financial success thereof. By way of background information, a short exposition of the characteristics, the various forms and the reasons for the increase, of mergers and acquisitions is provided. Essentially a merger or acquisition entails the acquisition of either the business of, or the shares in, the target company. A comparison is drawn between the tax consequences of the above two options for both parties to mergers and acquisitions. The composition of the purchase price payable by an acquiring company in respect of the acquisition of the target company's business or shares may have far reaching tax consequences. Consequently, the most commonly used arrangements relating to payment of the purchase price are scrutinized from a tax point of view. The bulk of the study consists of an analysis of particular aspects of mergers and acquisitions, which may, depending on how a particular transaction is structured, result in important tax benefits. The analysis is directed towards, firstly, establishing the tax consequences arising from mergers and acquisitions and, secondly, suggesting tax efficient structuring methods or alerting against structuring options that may have detrimental tax results. Some of the proposed tax structuring techniques have tax efficient results for one party to the merger or acquisition, but result in corresponding negative tax effects for the other. There are, however, opportunities to structure a tax efficient transaction in such a way to ensure that both parties share in the tax benefit. lt is even possible to, in respect of certain aspects of mergers and acquisitions, achieve a tax efficient result for both parties to the transaction without any commensurate disadvantage, or without them having to share the benefits thereof. lt is important to evaluate tax planning strategies against the general antiavoidance measures contained in the doctrine of substance over form and in tax legislation. Consequently, in the final analysis, the applicability of the antiavoidance measures to the tax planning strategies proposed in this study, is considered. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: BELASTINGOORWEGINGS OM IN GEDAGTE TE HOU BY SAMESMEL TINGS EN OORNAMES VAN SUID-AFRIKAANSE MAATSKAPPYE Korporatiewe samesmeltings en oornames is 'n dinamiese en immer groeiende area van die Suid-Afrikaanse besigheidsomgewing. Teen 'n korporatiewe belastingkoers van dertig persent is die belastinggevolge van 'n samesmelting of oorname 'n belangrike faktor in die finansiele sukses daarvan. Ter agtergrondinligting word daar in hierdie studie 'n kort uiteensetting van wat 'n samesmelting en oorname behels, die verskillende vorme wat dit kan aanneem en die redes waarom samesmeltings en oornames plaasvind, gegee. In wese kan 'n samesmelting of oorname geskied deur die verkryging van of die besigheid of die aandele van 'n teikenmaatskappy. 'n Vergelyking tussen die belastingimplikasies van genoemde twee opsies word uit die perspektief van beide die verkrygende maatskappy en die teikenmaatskappy, getref. Die samestelling van die koopprys wat ingevolge 'n oorname of 'n samesmelting betaalbaar is, kan verreikende belastingimplikasies inhou. Die mees algemene wyses van betaling, en die belastinggevolge wat daaruit voortvloei, word dus geanaliseer. Die studie behels hoofsaaklik 'n ontleding van spesifieke aspekte inherent aan samesmeltings en oornames wat, afhangend van die strukturering van die transaksie, verskillende belastinggevolge inhou. Die doel met die ontleding is tweeledig, naamlik om, eerstens, die belastinggevolge van samesmeltings en oornames vas te stel en om, tweedens, enersyds voorstelle te maak vir effektiewe belastingstrukturering, en andersins te waarsku teen struktureringsopsies wat negatiewe belastinggevolge mag inhou. Sommige struktureringstegnieke hou voordelige belastinggevolge vir een party tot 'n samesmelting of oorname in, maar lei tot korresponderende nadelige belastinggevolge vir die ander party. In sommige gevalle is dit egter moontlik om 'n middeweg tussen die voordeel en korresponderende nadeel te vind, sodat die partye in die voordeel kan deel. Daar word ook aangetoon dat sommige aspekte van samesmeltings en oornames, indien dit noukeurig beplan word, belastingvoordele sonder enige korresponderende nadele vir beide partye kan inhou. Belastingbeplanningstegnieke moet egter aan die algemene teenvermydingsmaatreels wat in die leerstuk van wese bo vorm, asook in belastingwetgewing, vervat word, gemeet word. Die studie word dus afgesluit met 'n bespreking van die toepaslikheid van die algemene teenvermydingsmaatreels op die voorstelle wat gemaak word ten opsigte van belastingstruktureringsopsies.

Thesis (MComm)--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Social assistance is a large and fiscally costly component of anti-poverty policy in South Africa and therefore lends to the questions: Are the grants effective tools for reducing poverty in South Africa and, moreover, how significant is their impact on poverty? As a measure of reducing poverty and improving the non-social indicators of the poor, the government has expanded the social grants since the advent of the new democracy. The country‟s social grant system is advanced and covers a broad range of individuals, as it is intended to cover vulnerable individuals over their life course from childhood to adulthood and into old age. Policy discourse surrounding the grants centres on the sustainability of the system and their implications for development. It is therefore important that their significance is shown and that their impact is illustrated by highlighting their reach into severely poor households. As a measure of poverty alleviation on their own, the grants are not enough and South Africa‟s poverty alleviation strategy has to rest primarily on economic growth and job creation. In addition, there are significant challenges in the system, such as the fact that there is no poverty grant targeted specifically at the unemployed; consequently, too much strain is placed on the resources of grant-receiving households that the whole household is plunged into poverty. Accordingly, the question this raises is: How can government solve the problem of the poor clustering around these grants? This dissertation will systematically show that the use of social security as a poverty-alleviating tool is effective given the extent of poverty in South Africa and the limitations on resources. It will also show that the decision-making structures in households influence the way grants affect the resource allocation needed for achieving lower levels of poverty. The extent to which the cash transferred to poor households via the grant programmes reduces poverty is likely to be influenced significantly by the decision-making structures in the grant-receiving households. There is evidence that grant money is shared in extended households, which suggests that decision making is broadly unitary or cooperative. However, we can only observe the outcomes and not the decision-making process in this regard and therefore can only draw tentative conclusions. Although there is cause for concern regarding the propensity of social grants to affect people‟s behaviour negatively, there is a case to be made for retaining grants as an important, though not the only, form of anti-poverty strategy. This highlights the need for continued research on the labour market and the social grants causal relationship. It also shows that research into the fertility effects of the grants is wanting, especially if there are speculative concerns that might inform policy on the impact of CSG on fertility. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sosiale bystand is „n groot en duur fiskale komponent van anti-armoede verligtingsbeleid in Suid Afrika en lei daarom tot die vrae: Is die toelaes effektiewe instrumente om armoede te verlig in Suid Afrika, en nog meer, hoe noemenswaardig is hulle impak op armoede? As „n maatstaf om armoede te verlig en die nie-sosiale armoede- aanwysers te verbeter van die armes, het die regering die sosiale toelaes vermeerder sedert die aanvang van demokrasie. Die land se sosiale toelae stelsel is gevorderd en dek „n wye verskeidenheid groepe van individue, aangesien dit bedoel is om weerlose individue te dek vanaf kind tot volwassene deurlopend tot die bejaarde. Beleidsdiskoers om die toelaes fokus op die volhoubaarheid van die stelsel en die implikasies daarvan vir ontwikkeling. Dit is daarom van belang dat die belangrikheid hiervan uitgewys word en die impak daarvan geillustreer word, deur op hul trefkrag te fokus in die armste van huishoudings. As „n middel to armoedeverligting op sigself is toelaes nie voldoende nie, en Suid-Afrika se armoede verligtingstrategie moet hoofsaaklik lê in werkskepping en ekonomiese groei. Verder is daar belangrike uitdagings in die stelsel, soos byvoorbeeld die feit dat daar geen armoede toelaes spesifiek gemik op die werkloses is nie; „n gevolg hiervan is dat daar te veel druk geplaas word op die bronne van die huishoudings wat toelaes ontvang en dat die hele huishouding in armoede gedompel word. Gevolglik ontstaan die vraag: Hoe kan die regering die probleem oplos van konsentrering van die armes rondom die toelaes? Hierdie dissertasie sal sistematies wys dat die gebruik van sosiale sekuriteit as „n armoede- verligtingsbeleid is effektiek gegewe die omvangreikheid van armoede in Suid Afrika en die beperkings op bronne. Dit sal ook wys dat die besluitnemingstrukture in huishoudings beinvloed die manier waarop toelaes die bron-allokasie beinvloed om laer vlakke van armoede te bereik. Die vlak waartoe die kontant oordraging na die arm huishoudings via die toelaes die vlak van armoede verlig word in alle waarskynlikheid tot „n groot mate beinvloed deur die besluitnemingstrukture in sodanige huishoudings wat toelaes ontvang. Daar is bewyse dat die toelaes gedeel word in uitgebreide huishoudings, wat daarop aandui dat besluitneming breedweg unitêr geneem word of gesamentlik. Ons kan egter slegs die uitkomste en nie die besluitnemingsproses in die verband bespeur nie en kan daarom slegs tot tentatiewe gevolgtrekkings kom. Alhoewel daar wel rede to kommer is vir die geneigdheid van toelaes om mense se gedrag negatief te beinvloed, is waar wel „n saak om toelaes te behou, hoewel nie as die enigste, maar wel as „n belangrike vorm van armoedeverligting. Dit lê die klem op die nodigheid van deurlopende navorsing op die arbeidsmark en die toelae- oorsaaklikheidsverhouding. Dit wys ook dat navorsing op die vrugbaarheidseffek van die toelaes is nodig, veral as daar spekulatiewe besorgdheid is wat die beleid op die impak van kindertoelaes op fertiliteit mag beinvloed.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Despite the importance of studying marriage patterns for a better understanding of colonial life, the subject has received little attention from a purely economic perspective. In his seminal work, European Marriage Patterns in Perspective (1965), J. Hajnal introduces the notion of a European Marriage Pattern (EMP) emerging in the late Middle Ages which became characteristic of Western European society in the early modern period. Hajnal points out several distinct aspects to distinguish Western European marriages from all other societies of the time. While existing literature in this field has typically focussed on the demographic features of marriage patterns, such as the average age of marriage, the share of the population that had never married, and the effects of the EMP on fertility and resulting population growth, little attention has been paid to the underlying mechanisms and causes of the EMP. Using genealogical records to track the ancestry of colonial settlers in South Africa, this study will investigate the evolution of marriage in the Cape Colony. The focus is primarily on the persistence of the EMP and attempt to determine whether it continued to characterise the marriages of European descendents outside of Europe, or whether a distinct marriage pattern emerged in the Cape Colony in the eighteenth and early nineteenth century. It will explore the effect that such patterns may have historically had on family size, standards of living and life chances for European settlers at the Cape, with an aim to shed new light on the underlying causes of the EMP, by critically evaluating De Moor and van Zanden’s (2010) three hypotheses of the origins of this distinct marriage pattern. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Ten spyte van die bydrae wat ’n studie van huwelikspatrone tot ’n beter begrip van die ekonomiese ontwikkeling en sosiale konteks tydens die koloniale era kan maak, ontvang hierdie onderwerp min aandag vanuit 'n suiwer ekonomiese perspektief. In John Hajnal se bekende publikasie, European Marriage Patterns in Perspective (1965), stel hy die konsep van 'n Europese Huweliks Patroon (EHP) voor. Hierdie patroon het waarskynlik in die laat-Middeleeue verskyn en die Wes-Europese samelewing in die vroeë-moderne tydperk gekenmerk. Hajnal beskryf sekere unieke aspekte wat Wes-Europese huwelike van alle ander samelewings van hierdie tydperk onderskei. Bestaande literatuur oor hierdie onderwerp fokus tipies op die demografiese kenmerke van huwelikspatrone, soos die gemiddelde ouderdom waarop individue trou, die gedeelte van die bevolking wat nooit trou nie en die gevolge wat die EHP op fertiliteit en bevolkingsgroei het. Min aandag is dus aan die onderliggende oorsake van die EHP gegee. Deur gebruik te maak van die Suid-Afrikaanse Geslagregisters is dit moontlik om die herkoms van koloniale setlaars in Suid-Afrika na te spoor. Hierdie studie fokus dus op die ontwikkeling van ’n huwelikspatroon in die Kaapkolonie. Die vraag is of die EHP die huwelike van Europese afstammelinge buite Europa steeds gekenmerk het en of daar ’n ander huwelikspatroon in die agtiende en vroeë-negentiende eeu in die Kaapkolonie na vore gekom het. Die vraag word beantwoord deur ’n kritiese analise van De Moor en van Zanden (2010) se drie hipoteses oor die oorsprong van hierdie eiesoortige huwelikspatroon.

Thesis (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Several mixed industry prediction models about failure have been reasonably successful in differentiating between successful companies and those that have failed. The challenge, however, is to venture into the grey area in between and to identify companies, which are financially unstable, at an early stage. Early identification enables management to intervene timeously in an attempt to prevent failure. Failure is defined as either liquidation, delisting, suspension of listing or a substantial change in structure. The grey area focused on in this study is overtrading. Overtrading is triggered by the company growing at too high a rate relative to its specific structure. Cash is necessary to fund expansion, whether for an increase in inventories, credit sales or new non-current assets. If the company does not generate enough cash to fund this expansion, it has to be financed through external sources. The longer the period of growth and the higher the growth rate, the more the cash requirements. From the theoretical model underlying overtrading, it was found that: • the higher the growth in sales, • the smaller the profit margin, and • the higher the net current assets in proportion to total assets, the lower the cash flow from operating activities before dividends were paid (CFO). Any company ought to generate enough cash from its daily activities in order to maintain the existing level of business, to repay loans, to replace assets and to pay dividends. If the internal generation of cash is insufficient to finance these activities, existing cash resources will be consumed, unproductive non-current assets will be sold and possibly also some of the productive non-current assets. The outcome for such a company is a business combination or liquidation. Due to the fact that cash plays such a big role in failure, cash flow variables constitute the majority of the independent variables used in the development of the failure prediction models. The overtrading ratio was developed as a measurement tool to quantify overtrading. As long as the company generates a positive CFO, it is not so much at risk as a company that does not succeed in generating a positive CFO. Therefore, a negative CFO for a three-year period was decided on as the norm for identifying possible financial difficulty. A company is involved in overtrading if the sum of CFO for three years less the sum of the adjusted profit for the three years, divided by the absolute value of the sum of the adjusted profit for the three years equals -1 or smaller in the case of a company with a cumulative profit for the three years; and smaller than nought in the case of a company with a cumulative loss for the three years. South African industrial companies listed for at least three years during the period 1974 to 2003, were identified. From a total of 6 662 cumulative three-year periods, 944 overtrading years were identified. Failure occurred in 212 out of 526 companies involved in overtrading between January 1974 and August 1989. 120 out of 199 companies involved in overtrading between September 1989 and November 1995 failed, while 90 out of 127 companies involved in overtrading, failed between December 1995 and June 2000. By June 2005 it was already evident that 49 out of 92 companies involved in overtrading between July 2000 and December 2003, had already failed. Companies involved in overtrading, may survive artificially for lengthy periods with the support of providers of capital. It can therefore be expected that failure prediction models will not achieve a better accuracy rate than achieved by probabilities. Six failure prediction models utilising classification tree algorithms were developed. Using data from two periods, two different models were developed; one for growth and recession phases of the economy, the other without distinction between economic phases. The first period was September 1989 to June 2000, the other December 1995 to June 2000. June 2000 was chosen as the cut-off, since a period of five years after an overtrading year was necessary to follow-up whether the company had failed. Each universe was split in two – the learning sample, more or less 60%, and the test sample, more or less 40%. The models were developed from the learning sample and the test sample was used as substantiation of the results of the developed model. The total classification accuracy of the three best models, one for the growth-phase, one for the recession-phase and one mixed economy model, is respectively 72,99%, 96,67% and 80,26% and the classification accuracy for the failed companies 75,29%, 100% and 85,19% respectively. The total prediction accuracy of the three models is respectively 69,23%, 80,95% and 72,55%, and that of the failed companies 73,68%, 86,67% and 83,33%. The accuracy of all the models was found to be higher than what the accuracy would have been if all the companies involved in overtrading were merely classified as having failed. From the results of the different tests, it seems that Ver3, the growth in sales from year 1 to year 3, is probably the most important independent variable in the classification between failed and non-failed overtrading years. This corroborates the theory underlying overtrading that indicates that a high sales growth puts a company at risk for cash flow problems. Companies where the cash flow problems develop because of an increase in current assets will be intercepted by the overtrading ratio. Companies where cash flow problems develop due to replacement of non-current assets, will not necessarily be intercepted by the overtrading ratio as CFO that is used in the overtrading ratio does not allow for replacement of non-current assets. It is therefore necessary to adjust CFO to a free cash flow CFO. Depreciation is used as an alternative for replacement investment since disclosure of replacement investment is not required. Depreciation is theoretically the fraction of the value of an asset lost during the year; this value needs to be replaced. By subtracting the depreciation for the year from CFO, this amount will be more representative of the cash position of the company after considering all the normal transactions in order to sustain the business. After all the adjustments for a free cash flow, six models were developed for the different periods and economic phases. The accuracy of these models were better than what the accuracy would have been if overtrading years were merely classified as failed. Implementing these models would therefore improve specificity. From the tests performed, Ver3 and KVB3/TB (the cumulative CFO for the three years over total assets) seem to be the most important independent variables in the classification between failed and non-failed when considering free cash flow. This is informative as KVB3:TB represents a fictional amount, as if the company spent an amount equal to depreciation on replacement investment. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Heelwat gemengde industrie-mislukkingvoorspellingsmodelle was al redelik suksesvol in die onderskeid tussen mislukte en suksesvolle maatskappye. Die uitdaging is egter om die grys area tussen dié uiterstes te betree en ’n maatskappy wat finansieel onstabiel is, vroegtydig te identifiseer. Vroegtydige identifikasie stel die bestuur in staat om betyds in te gryp en mislukking te voorkom. Mislukking word as likwidasie, òf denotering, òf opskorting van notering, òf ’n wesenlike struktuurverandering, gedefinieer. Die grys area waarop die fokus in hierdie studie val, is oorbedryf. Oorbedryf word veroorsaak deurdat die maatskappy teen ’n te hoë koers relatief tot sy spesifieke struktuur groei. Kontant is nodig om uitbreiding, hetsy ’n toename in voorraad, kredietverkope of nuwe nie-bedryfsbates, te finansier. Indien die besigheid nie genoeg kontant genereer om hierdie uitbreiding te finansier nie, moet dit vanuit eksterne bronne gefinansier word. Hoe langer die tydperk van groei voortduur en hoe hoër die groeikoers is, hoe meer is die kontantbehoeftes. Uit die teoretiese model wat onderliggend is aan oorbedryf, is bevind dat: • hoe hoër die groei in verkope, • hoe kleiner die winspersentasie, en • hoe hoër die bedryfskapitaal in verhouding tot die totale bates; hoe laer is die kontantvloei uit bedryfsaktiwiteite voor dividende betaal (KVB). Enige besigheid behoort genoeg kontant uit dag-tot-dag-aktiwiteite te genereer ten einde die bestaande vlak van besigheid vol te hou, lenings terug te betaal, bates te vervang en dividende te betaal. Indien die interne kontantgenerering onvoldoende is om hierdie aktiwiteite te finansier, sal bestaande kontantbronne uitgewis word, onproduktiewe nie-bedryfsbates sal verkoop word en moontlik ook van die produktiewe nie-bedryfsbates. Die uiteinde vir so ’n maatskappy is ’n besigheidsoorname of ’n likwidasie. Aangesien kontantvloei so ’n groot rol in mislukking speel, is kontantvloeiveranderlikes die meerderheid van die onafhanklike veranderlikes wat in die ontwikkeling van die mislukkingvoorspellingsmodelle gebruik is. Die oorbedryfsratio is as ’n maatstaf ontwikkel om oorbedryf te meet. Solank as wat ’n maatskappy ’n positiewe KVB genereer, is hy nie so riskant soos ’n maatskappy wat nie daarin kan slaag om positiewe kontant te genereer nie. Daarom is ’n negatiewe kumulatiewe KVB vir ’n drie-jaar-tydperk as die norm gestel om moontlike finansiële nood te identifiseer. ’n Maatskappy is besig met oorbedryf indien die som van die KVB vir drie jaar minus die som van die aangepaste wins vir die drie jaar, gedeel deur die absolute waarde van die som van die aangepaste wins vir die drie jaar, gelyk aan of kleiner as -1 is, in die geval van ’n maatskappy wat ’n kumulatiewe wins vir die drie jaar het; en kleiner as nul in die geval van ’n maatskappy wat ’n kumulatiewe verlies vir die drie jaar het. Alle Suid-Afrikaanse genoteerde industriële maatskappye wat vir ten minste drie jaar gedurende die tydperk 1974 tot 2003 genoteer was, is geïdentifiseer. Uit ’n totaal van 6 662 kumulatiewe drie-jaar-tydperke was daar 944 oorbedryfsjare. Vanaf Januarie 1974 tot Augustus 1989 was daar 526 oorbedryfsjare, waarvan 212 misluk het. Vanaf September 1989 tot November 1995 was daar 199 oorbedryfsjare, waarvan 120 misluk het en vanaf Desember 1995 tot Junie 2000 het 90 van 127 oorbedryfsjare misluk. Teen Junie 2005 was dit reeds bekend dat 49 van die 92 oorbedryfsjare tussen Julie 2000 en Desember 2003 misluk het. Oorbedryfsmaatskappye bly soms vir uitgebreide tydperke kunsmatig voortbestaan, indien die verskaffers van kapitaal hulle dra. Die verwagting was dus dat mislukkingvoorspellingsmodelle nie ’n beter akkuraatheid sou behaal as wat waarskynlikhede sou bepaal nie. Ses mislukkingvoorspellingsmodelle is met behulp van die klassifikasieboomalgoritme ontwikkel. Een model elk vir die groeifase en die resessie-fase van die ekonomie en een model sonder onderskeid van die ekonomiese fase is met die gebruikmaking van twee tydperke se data ontwikkel. Die eerste tydperk was September 1989 tot Junie 2000 en die ander Desember 1995 tot Junie 2000. Junie 2000 is as die afsnypunt gebruik aangesien ’n vyf-jaaropvolgtydperk na ’n oorbedryfsjaar nodig is om vas te stel of die maatskappy misluk het. Elke universum is in twee verdeel – die leersteekproef, ongeveer 60%, en die toetssteekproef, ongeveer 40%. Die modelle is uit die leersteekproef afgelei en die toetssteekproef is gebruik as bevestiging van die resultate van die afgeleide model. Die totale klassifikasie-akkuraatheid van die drie beste modelle, een vir die groeifase, een vir die resessie-fase en een gemengde ekonomiemodel, is onderskeidelik 72,99%, 96,67% en 80,26% en dié vir die mislukte maatskappye 75,29%, 100% en 85,19%. Die totale voorspellingsakkuraatheid van die drie modelle is onderskeidelik 69,23%, 80,95% en 72,55% en dié van die mislukte maatskappye 73,68%, 86,67% en 83,33%. Al die modelle se akkuraatheid is meer as wat die akkuraatheid sou wees indien al die oorbedryfsjare bloot as misluk geklassifiseer sou wees. Uit die resultate van verskeie toetse blyk dit dat Ver3, die groei in verkope vanaf jaar 1 tot jaar 3, waarskynlik die belangrikste onafhanklike veranderlike in die onderskeid tussen mislukte en nie-mislukte oorbedryfsjare is. Dit ondersteun die teorie wat onderliggend is aan oorbedryf, wat aandui dat ’n hoë groei in verkope ’n maatskappy op risiko plaas vir kontantvloeiprobleme. Maatskappye waar die kontantvloeiprobleme vanweë ’n uitbreiding in bedryfskapitaal ontstaan, word deur die oorbedryfsratio onderskep. Die maatskappye waar die kontantvloeiprobleme eerder uit die vervanging van nie-bedryfsbates sal voortvloei, sal nie noodwendig deur die oorbedryfsratio ondervang word nie, aangesien die KVB wat in die oorbedryfsratio gebruik word, nie voorsiening maak vir vervangende investering nie. Dit is daarom nodig om KVB tot ’n vrye kontantvloei-KVB aan te pas. Waardevermindering word as ’n alternatief vir vervangende investering gebruik, aangesien vervangende investering nie ’n verpligte openbaarmakingsvereiste is nie. Waardevermindering is teoreties dié deel van die bate wat gedurende die jaar opgebruik is en wat vervang behoort te word. Deur dus die jaarlikse waardevermindering van KVB af te trek, is hierdie syfer meer verteenwoordigend van die maatskappy se kontantposisie nadat alle normale transaksies om die besigheid in stand te hou, in ag geneem is. Na die aanpassings vir vrye kontantvloei is weer ses modelle uit die verskillende tydperke en vir die verskillende ekonomiese fases ontwikkel. Al die modelle se akkuraatheid is beter as wat die akkuraatheid sou wees indien al die oorbedryfsjare bloot as misluk geklassifiseer sou wees. Ver3 en KVB3:TB (die kumulatiewe KVB vir die drie jaar tot die totale bates) blyk uit die toetse die belangrikste onafhanklike veranderlikes te wees in die onderskeid tussen misluk en nie-misluk wanneer vrye kontantvloei in ag geneem word. Dit is insiggewend aangesien KVB3:TB ’n fiktiewe syfer verteenwoordig, sou die maatskappy ’n bedrag wat gelyk is aan waardevermindering, aan vervangende investering bestee het.