Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The central research question of this study concerns how corruption as a political risk factor should be measured in order to provide an accurate assessment of the risk factor within the oil and gas industry. The aim is to answer this question with the aid and support of two sub-questions that have been identified as crucial in pursuing this research. The first sub-question conceptualizes corruption as a political risk factor specifically within the oil and gas industry. The second sub-question addresses the oil and gas industry-specific indicators of corruption as a political risk factor. The research embarks upon seven industry-specific indicators, by isolating the relevant national political structural and institutional framework, which has proved essential in identifying the level of corruption as a risk to the oil and gas investor. The indicators are regarded as the most salient variables that can measure the level of corruption as a political risk in a realistic and practical approach. The indicators are subsequently systemised into a matrix that is constructed with the aim of using it as a general measurement tool for oil and gas investors. The study argues that this measurement tool can be of use to the oil and gas investor as it contributes to businesses recognition and anticipation of corruption. The matrix is furthermore applied to the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, in an attempt to test the matrix, and in order to establish how and to what level corruption constitutes as a political risk factor for the oil and gas industry in this country. The result of the indicators demonstrates that the political risk of encountering corruption for the oil and gas investor in Nigeria is of a high level. This study provides a valid basis of constituting how corruption manifests as a risk for the oil and gas investor. Furthermore, the applicability of the matrix provides a practical utility and constructive assessment. This thesis provides a firm foundation for future research in this field. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die sentrale navorsingsvraag van hierdie studie handel oor hoe korrupsie as 'n politieke risiko faktor gemeet moet word om 'n akkurate bepaling van die risiko faktor binne die oilie- en gas industrie te maak. Die doel is om hierdie vraag te beantwoord met die hulp van twee sub-navorsingsvrae wat geïdentifiseer is essensieël on hierdie navorsing te voltooi. Die eerste sub-navorsingvraag konseptualiseer korrupsie as 'n politieke risiko faktor, spesifiek binne die olie en gas industrie. Die tweede sub-navorsingsvraag handel oor die industrie-spesifieke indikatore van korrupsie as 'n politieke risiko faktor. Die navorsing is gevestig op sewe industrie-spesifieke indikatore, wat geïsoleer word vanaf relevante nasionale politieke strukture en institusionele raamwerke, wat essensieël is in die identifikasie van die vlak van korrupsie as 'n risiko vir die olie en gas belegger. Die indikatore word beskou as die mees prominente veranderlikes wat die vlak van korrupsie as n politieke risiko kan meet, as 'n realistiese en praktiese benadering. Die indikatore word gevolglik geplaas binne 'n raamwerk wat gebou is met die doel om dit te bebruik as 'n algemene maatstaf vir die belegger in die olie-en gas industrie. Hierdie studie argumenteer dat die maatstaf gebruik kan word in die olie-en gas industrie, siende dat dit bydrae tot besighede se erkenning en antisipasie van korrupsie. Die maatstaf word verder toegepas op die geval van die olie-en gas industrie in Nigerië, met die doel om dit te toets en ook om vas te stel tot watter vlak korrupsie as 'n politieke risiko faktor vir die olie-en gas industrie teenwoordig is in hierdie land. Die resultaat van die indikatore dui daarop dat daar 'n hoë vlak van politieke risiko vir die olie-en gas industrie in Nigerië bestaan. Die studie verskaf 'n geldige basis om vas te stel hoe korrupsie in die olie-en gas industrie manifesteer. Verder, die toepaslikheid van die maatstaf verskaf praktiese bruikbaarheid en konstruktiewe meeting. Die tesis verskaf 'n stewige basis vir toekomstige navrsing in die veld.

Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / This study explores the contours, dynamics and impacts of African football migration to South Africa. It argues that there has been a change in the international political economy of sport, and that this change is affecting world football migration. In addition to the study’s primary focus on African football migration, it also reviews substantial parts of the literature concerning the phenomenon of football migration, in order to explain which dynamics characterise football migration. The thesis also accounts for the incentives that motivate African football migration to South Africa, and the impact such players have on the South African domestic elite league. The study identifies which incentives exist for promoting football cooperation in the context of Southern Africa, and how football migration patterns correlate or contrast with general migration patterns to South Africa. The study makes use of two theoretical frameworks, by Paul Darby and Joseph Maguire, to understand and explain player migration. These frameworks provide an understanding of the different aspects and structures shaping player migration, and should be interpreted as complementary and not contrasting approaches. The examination of the frameworks’ theoretical deficiencies and implications provides the basis for further research in the conclusion. The conclusion argues that there exists a need to create a new theoretical framework within which future studies can be concluded. The study is motivated by the general lack of academic research on the specific subject and migration to South Africa. The latter is suggested by the body of literature, concerning African migration to South Africa, which argues for more research on the issue to get a better understanding of the current situation. This study is based on both primary and secondary sources, the latter being represented by e.g. academic journal articles and books. In addition it was necessary to conduct fieldwork to provide answers to the research questions. The study makes use of exploratory qualitative methods in order to provide a conclusion, and to answer the research questions. It can be characterised as exploratory because it will offer new insights into a specific issue which, until now, has not been researched extensively. The analysis of the data and desktop research revealed certain trends, and provides a basis for answering the research questions. The study concludes that football migration, like conventional migration, is very complex and influenced by several interwoven factors. Hence a broad scope is crucial to understand the phenomenon correctly and not exaggerate the importance of some factors above others. In the conclusion the current position of the PSL is explained in relation to the two theoretical frameworks and the work of Pierre Lanfranchi and Matthew Taylor. It is argued that the PSL, unlike most other African leagues, has managed to cope with the ‘enduring problem of African football’, and has transformed into a commercialised, commoditised league heavily influenced by corporate interests.

Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / Sudan is a country that has been affected by a history of multiple destructive civil wars. Conflicts that, in a global perspective, have proven to be as devastating as interstate wars, or on occasion even more destructive, in terms of the numbers of casualties, refugee figures and the effects on a country’s society. The conflict in Darfur, in the western region of Sudan, is a civil war that illustrates one of the direst scenarios. In around five years of warfare, more than 200,000 people have died in the conflict, and around two million Darfurians were displaced, creating what the UN calls the “world’s worst humanitarian crisis.” The civil war was initiated by the attacks of two rebel groups, the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army and the Justice and Equality Movement, against government installations. Although presenting insurgency characteristics, the civil war in Darfur has been commonly labelled as a “tribal” conflict of “Africans” versus “Arabs”. An explanation that seems to fail to clarify the complex circumstances belying the situation. As seen in this study, although identity factors played their role as a cause of the conflict, the ‘ethnic hatred’ justification of war doesn’t seem to be sufficient to explain the present situation. Darfur appears to be a clear example that there is no single factor that can explain such a war. In the case of Darfur, various factors seem to have interplayed in creating the necessary conditions for the eruption of violence. This study focused on two of these factors – the environmental hazards that have been affecting the region, and the government’s use of the Janjaweed militia in its counterinsurgency movement. Both, and in different ways, seem to have contributed to dividing the Darfurian society between two poles, thus worsening the circumstances in the region and helping generate the high levels of violence that characterise the Darfur conflict. Most important, in analysing the conflict of Darfur with a point of view that goes beyond the “ethnic hatred” explanation, it seems possible to identify issues, such as land ownership, that are in vital need of being addressed in order to achieve peace in 4 the region. As seen in this thesis, it seems that it is only through a broad understanding of the complex causes of the conflict that peace negotiations might have any hope of success. While those continue to be ignored, any peace agreements or prospects of finding a solution to the conflict will be unrealistic.

Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / Abstract: The African continent has been riddled with conflict for many years. Angola and Somalia are prime examples of countries having experienced protracted wars. During those wars, warlords have played a definite role in perpetuating the fighting. The thesis investigates warlordism in Africa. Specifically, it is a comparative analysis of Jonas Savimbi of Angola and Farah Aideed of Somalia. The thesis investigates the concept of warlords and uses the examples of Aideed and Savimbi to illustrate the impact of warlords on the respective countries. The examples of Aideed and Savimbi are further used to show that there are different ways to becoming ultimately labelled as a warlord. The role of state weakness and ethnicity will be investigated in the two cases. The discussion will highlight the points that state weakness (i.e. lack of governmental functionality) and the use of ethnicity play a profound role in the rise and survival of warlords. The case studies of Aideed and Savimbi will emphasise the influence of state weakness and ethnicity in their formation as warlords. The concept of state weakness is defined and the thesis illustrates that there are different levels of state weakness. The thesis compares Angola and Somalia, and shows that Savimbi and Aideed acted under vastly different conditions as warlords. Ethnicity is defined and linked to the idea that the effects of colonialism played a profound role in creating ethnic divisions, enabling warlords such as Aideed and Savimbi to use their ethnic backgrounds to mobilise followers to wage war. The thesis investigates how Aideed and Savimbi maintained their military organisations. Their ability to do so is related to both state weakness and ethnicity. State weakness and ethnicity create conditions which are conducive to the emergence of warlords.

Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / South Africa and Malaysia share a similar history charecterised by multi-ethnicity and similar policies in redressing their economic imbalances created by past colonial experiences. In both countries, the decolonization process left economic power with minority ethnic groups, a phenomenon that led to the exclusion of the majority of people from meaningful participation in the mainstream economy. It has been argued that in such instances minority ethnic communities often experience minority domination of the economy in ethnic terms as control of economic levers of economic power. Upon independence, Malaysia and South Africa faced the challenge of redressing the socio-economic and political imbalances. In South Africa, the government led by the African National Congress (ANC) adopted the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) programme to create an inclusive economy that can meet the needs of its entire citizen. Unlike Malaysia where the economic restructuring took place in a less globalised period, South Africa’s economic restructuring occurs at a time when globalisation is at an advanced stage. This has made it difficult for the South African government to match Malaysia’s successes in redressing the economic imbalances. Also, in adopting the BEE programme the ANC government has not given enough attention to education and skills development, two elements that were key to Malaysia’s own model of economic empowerment. Strategies to address poverty have so far borne little success thus further condemning the majority of Black people to impoverished conditions. The outcome of the study suggests that in order for BEE to be successful, the ANC government has to empower the majority of black people with the necessary skills that will make them active participants in the mainstream economy. Also, a broadened empowerment process should see education, skills development and poverty alleviation become aligned to the BEE programme.

Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--Stellenbosch University, 2009. / As the ethnic militias increased in strength after the transition to democracy, voices were raised whether they could pose a threat to the consolidation of democracy. In order to understand the problems that ethnic militias pose for the consolidation of democracy we try to show how they were established and how they have influenced the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria. Further, we ask if the ethnic militias have outplayed their role in Nigerian society. The main results show that the ethnic militias arose because of necessity, in an environment where ethno-nationalism was prevalent because of a repressive state’s inability to take care of its own people. The violent activities of the ethnic militias was not good for democracy in the short run, but as a counterweight to the state the ethnic militias played an important role in what can be described as civil society taken up arms. This militarising of society seems to have forced the state to take the ethnic militias more seriously. Hence, it can be claimed that the ethnic militias served as a midwife to the current Nigerian transitional democracy. However, as the state recognised the ethnic militias as a part of the political realm, and not just violent groups, the legitimacy for the ethnic militias eroded. The Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), which was the most influential ethnic militias in Nigeria, has now changed its agenda, and has not gone back to being the socio-cultural organisation as they were formed as. There is an important role for the OPC and the Niger Delta ethnic militias as a counterweight to the state, but dialogue should be the main way of communication, as violence will only foster violence. It seems clear that the state needs to take the first step in order to make this happen. The conclusion is that ethnic militias have had, and still have an effect on the consolidation of democracy by holding the state responsible for its actions, and by punishing the state when it does not act according to its people’s wishes. It can be claimed that they forced out democracy by highlighting the flaws of the Nigerian state even if the way they operated, was not democratic. By highlighting corruption, lack of law enforcement and unnecessary use of force, they were able to bring down the authoritarian rule and make way for the transition to democracy. However, they do not seem to pose a threat to consolidation in the short term, rather they can have a positive effect, as they can act a counterweight to the ruling elite and other forces obstructing democracy. As we show, ethnic militias are and have been a part of civil society, and the focus of the future should be how to incorporate them into civil society, especially the Niger Delta ethnic militias as they are still active. Ethnic militias (except for some ones in the Niger Delta) were a brief phenomena in Nigerian history, and the focus should be on understanding the reason for them coming into being, in order to avoid it happening again. This thesis tries to give a holistic view of the Nigerian political situation. This thesis fills a gap in the literature concerning ethnic militias, by incorporating the most important factors into a framework. This makes it easier to make an accurate conclusion on how they have affected democracy, and questions the opinion that militias were only harmful to Nigerian development. It is the author’s opinion that this thesis will give scholars a more nuanced perspective of the ethnic militias, and lead to more accurate research in the future.

Thesis (MA (Political Science.International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / This study is based on the premise that HIV/AIDS and variable rainfall, in other words, events such as droughts and floods (climate), are likely to be prevalent in Southern Africa for the foreseeable future. Thus, these two factors are likely to accompany future food crises in the region. This study investigates the Southern African Food Crisis in the period 2001-2005, with certain objectives in mind. Firstly, the impact of HIV/AIDS and climate on food security is investigated. Secondly, in light of the findings relating to the first objective, it is investigated what an optimal humanitarian intervention in a food crisis in the Southern African context, characterised by variable rainfall and high prevalence of HIV/AIDS, might entail. Finally, the appropriateness of humanitarian interventions in the Southern African Food Crisis to ameliorate the long-term impacts of HIV/AIDS and climate on the region is considered. The study makes use of an extensive literature review, supplemented by a smaller set of e-mail and semi-structured interviews. Especially with regards to the second and third research objectives, the Consortium for the Southern African Food Security Emergency (C-SAFE) is used as a case study of an intervention in the above stated context. C-SAFE – composed of a consortium of international and local non-governmental organisations - is the largest humanitarian intervention programme that was created with the specific goal of ameliorating the food crisis in the Southern African region. They were primarily active in four countries: Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The study focuses on C-SAFE operations in these four countries in order to asses the impact of variable rainfall and HIV/Aids and other underlying causes – such as macroeconomic factors and government policy – on food insecurity in Southern Africa and to examine how these factors influence a humanitarian intervention programme such as C-SAFE. The most important findings of this study are that neither HIV/AIDS nor climate is driving food insecurity in Southern Africa. The impact of HIV/AIDS can however be devastating at household level. It is found that both factors, serve as catalysts bringing to the fore the underlying vulnerability of households. The findings of this study further suggest that interventions should provide resilience building to shocks such as drought, indicating a complex set of relief and developmental needs in the region. Furthermore, HIV/AIDS can be seen as a crisis in itself, requiring a comprehensive multisectoral response, however possibly requiring special attention in times of food insecurity. Finally it is argued that livelihoods erosion over time has meant that the work of relief agencies fulfilling their mandate, providing short-term relief to households and communities in need, regardless of the quality of such interventions, are ineffectual in addressing cycles of vulnerability in Southern Africa as inadequacies at national level, most notably a lack of government capacity, remain.

Thesis (MPhil (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2008. / The primary goal of this thesis is to explore, analyse and apply the New War theory to the West African case of Sierra Leone. The motivation for conducting a study of this nature was that much literature exists on the assumption that the Sierra Leonean conflict equates to a resource war. This research project attempts to bridge the gap between the New War schools of thought and those who maintain a resource war approach. Although Kaldor’s (2006) work on New Wars is significant, she does not place much emphasis on Africa. In order to supplement this, William Reno (2001) and Paul Collier (2000) have also been studied. Both write about Africa. The RUF virtually razed the Sierra Leonean society to the ground. The overtly violent methods employed were dissimilar to the interstate and intrastate wars of the past. Blatant exploitation of the country’s mineral wealth aggravated the situation. In attempting to reach a relevant finding, this study is divided into distinctive sections. Chapter two documents the theoretical background. The writings of Kaldor (2006), Reno (2001) and Collier (2000) are explored and applied. The third chapter investigates the factors in the conflict. Issues such as the resource factor (diamonds) and poverty are discussed; the failed state in Sierra Leone; criminal networks; social conditions; arms; and the role of youth and children. The general finding of this chapter indicates that Sierra Leone fits this model. Chapter four describes and analyses the actors. Identity was not an issue in the Sierra Leone war; thus a large part of Kaldor’s theory becomes redundant. In the final assessment the study establishes what Sierra Leone’s position is: New War or merely resource war? The bulk of the applied theory proved to be applicable to this case; but the study also acknowledges the mistaken views regarding Kaldor’s identity theories. Collier and Reno’s works prove to be significantly more relevant. This study was able to determine that Sierra Leone was indeed an example of New Wars, albeit considerably affected and influenced by greed.

Thesis MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / This thesis is, in essence, a theoretically informed, qualitative study of an intermediate power coalition in international trade negotiations. More specifically, it critically evaluates the cooperation of India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) in the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The IBSA Dialogue Forum was established in 2003. This was also the year the three emerging countries first drew attention to their collective bargaining potential. First, they were instrumental in negotiating a waiver in the WTO that allowed for relaxed patent restrictions on the import of generic drugs for countries in the developing world facing health emergencies. Then, they also played a central role in the collapse of the WTO talks held in Cancun, 2003. This study looks at what IBSA aims to achieve in the WTO and then tries to establish whether it is possible for the initiative to achieve these aims (in the WTO). It asks, firstly, what kind of coalition IBSA forms in the WTO. Then, it asks whether it makes sense for India, Brazil and South Africa to form this type of coalition. Finally, it discusses some of the complexities involved in the three countries’ claim that it speaks for the “developing South”. The study makes use mainly of a neo-liberal institutionalist theoretical approach, while being open to constructive debate and critique from the reflective school. Ultimately, the study argues that the challenges that bind these countries also constrain each of them. The three countries might be emerging, but they are also developing countries with limited capacity that face serious developmental challenges. In addition, these countries of the South are situated in complex regional environments. In the WTO, IBSA aims to cement a coalition through processes that promote the cooperative dimensions of interaction and minimise conflictual ones. This innovative approach to cooperation does provide some hope. How they use their collective capacity will prove decisive. No doubt, successful cooperation will require hard work, especially as the coalition will have to deliver concrete results not only to domestic constituencies, but also to the developing world as a whole.

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study explores the claim that Great Power Wars are a necessary condition for successful hegemonic ascent in the modern world-system, primarily from the standpoint of World- Systems Analysis. This study advances the conception of hegemony primarily in economic and state terms, and it was investigated, by way of a historical case study, how the Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) impacted the economic domains of agro-industrial production, commerce, and finance of the United Provinces of the Netherlands, and its main rival for systemic leadership, Hapsburg Spain. The variables utilised in the study were Great Power War, and the ‘material base’ of the state involved (both independent), the three abovementioned economic domains (intervening), and hegemony or defeat (dependent). The case study was primarily descriptive and explanatory, with the use of process-tracing in its compilation, and a method of within-case structured, focused comparison was utilised with the aim of tentatively producing standardised, generalised knowledge concerning the wider link between Great Power War and hegemony beyond the Dutch case. The findings of the study, although derived from only one historical case of hegemonic ascent in the modern world-system, strongly support the argument that Great Power War is necessary to secure the hegemony of the leading insular core state, which is physically removed from the fighting during the conflict, since the full mobilisation of its economy is effected, while the economies of most other core states are impaired, especially the main continental rival for hegemony. However, the ascending hegemon must also possess the requisite favourable ‘material base’. Further research on this topic is called for, given the potential destructiveness of a future Great Power War, and its role in establishing hegemony in the modern world-system. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die bewering dat Groot Moontheid Oorloë ‘n noodsaaklike vereiste is vir suksesvolle hegemoniese bestyging in die moderne wêreld-sisteem, hoofsaaklik vanaf die standpunt van Wêreld-Sisteem Analise. Hierdie studie bevorder die konsepsie van hegemonie hoofsaaklik in ekonomiese en staat terme, en dit het ondersoek, deur middel van ‘n historiese gevallestudie, hoe die Dertig Jaar Oorlog (1618-1648) ingewerk het op die ekonomiese arenas van agri-industriële produksie, handel, and finansies van die Verenigde Provinsies van Nederland, en hul mededinger vir sistemiese leierskap, Spanje. Die veranderlikes wat in die studie ingespan was, was Groot Moontheid Oorlog, en die ‘materiële basis’ van die state in kwessie (onafhanlik), die drie bogenoemde ekonomiese arenas (albei tussenkomend), en hegemonie of nederlaag (afhanklik). Die gevallestudie was hoofsaaklik beskrywend en verduidelikend, en proses-nasporing (oftewel ‘process-tracing’) is in die samestelling daarvan benut, en ‘n metode van gestruktureerde, gefokusde vergelyking (oftewel ‘structured, focused comparison’) is gebruik binne die gevallestudie met die doel om tentatiewe gestandardiseerde en veralgemeende kennis te genereer wat bydra tot die verduideliking van die wyer skakel tussen Groot Moontheid Oorlog en hegemonie buite die geval van die Verenigde Provinsies. Die bevindinge van die studie, hoewel gegenereer aan die hand van slegs een historiese geval van hegemoniese bestyging in the moderne wêreld-sisteem, het sterk steun verleen aan die argument dat Groot Moontheid Oorloë nodig is om die hegemonie van die vernaamste insulêre kern staat te bewerkstellig, wat fisies verwyderd van die gevegte is tydends die oorlog, aangesien die volle mobilisasie van die ekonomie van hierdie staat bewerkstellig word, terwyl die ekonomieë van die meerderheid van die ander kernstate benadeel word, veral die vernaamste kontinentale mededinger om hegemonie. Die opkomende hegemoon moet egter ook oor die vereiste gunstige ‘materiële basis’ beskik. Verdere navorsing in hierdie veld word benodig, gegewe die waarskynlike vernietiging wat gesaai kan word deur ‘n toekomstige Groot Moontheid Oorlog, en die rol daarvan in die daarstelling van hegemonie in die moderne wêreld-sisteem.