Thesis (DPhil) -- Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study attempts to reach some conclusions about the possibility of the South African democracy to endure. It does so through entering into the so-called preconditions for democracy field, concretely, by the observation of the changes in and the composition of the South African middle class as a feature of democratic consolidation. Middle classes are regarded as an important political actor in democratisation and it is difficult to fmd a stable democracy without a well-developed and large middle class. Actually, the democratisation movements have mostly been led by middle classes. Moreover, the size of the middle class in a particular society is also indicative of the level of income inequality, which is another important indicator for the success of democratisation. From a theoretical perspective, the study presents the different existing approaches to democratisation in general, and to middle class democracy in particular. Then, it focuses on a case study: South Africa. The variables for the research then are, "middle class" as an independent variable; and "democratic consolidation" as a dependent variable. The hypothesis that links them therefore is as follows: The larger the middle class, the greater the chance for the consolidation of democracy. From an empirical perspective the research tests the above hypothesis by making use of extensive quantitative data. Both variables are then operationalised and their tendencies of growth are measured, presented and explained. Middle class is operationalised in terms of occupation. Consolidated democracy is operationalised in terms of political tolerance and trust in the institutions. Political tolerance refers to the procedural part of democracy, whereas trust relates to the substantive dimension of democracy. The major fin<iings arrived at are that, on one hand the middle class in South Africa is increasing in size and incorporating previously excluded sectors - mainly Blacks - but, on the other hand, democracy seems to be consolidating from a procedural point of view - increase in political tolerance -, but not from a substantive one - decrease in trust in the institutions. Consequently, the original hypothesis is reformulated as follows: An increase in the middle class in the first years of democracy indicates that democracy is consolidating "procedlfrally ". Against the background of these fmdings, room is left for further research that will provide information about whether a democracy can consolidate only procedurally or whether the substantive dimension of democracy is essential for successful consolidation. Further research will also confirm whether or not the recent increase in trust during 1999 signifies a real turning-point or whether it is due to other reasons. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie poog om tot 'n aantal gevolgtrekkings te kom oor die waarskynlikheid dat die Suid-Afrikaanse demokrasie in stand sal bly. Dit is benader deur 'n ondersoek na die voorvereistes vir demokrasie en, konkreet, deur die waarneming van veranderings in die samestelling van die Suid-Afrikaanse middelstand as 'n verskynsel van demokratiese konsolidasie. Die middelstand word as 'n belangrike politieke rolspeler in demokratisering beskou en dit is moeilik om 'n voorbeeld van 'n stabiele demokrasie waar daar nie 'n groot middel~tand is nie, te vind. In werklikheid is demokratiese bewegings meestal deur die middelstand gelei. Verder is die omvang van die middelstand binne 'n besondere gemeenskap ook aanduidend van die vlak van inkomste-ongelykheid, wat 'n verdere belangrike aanduider vir die sukses van demokratisering is. Vanuit 'n teoretiese perspektief hied die studie die verskillende bestaande benaderings tot demokratisering in die algemeen, en tot middelstand-demokrasie in besonder, aan. Dan verskuif die aandag na 'n gevallestudie van Suid-Afrika. Die veranderlikes vir die navorsing is "middelstand" as onafhanklike veranderlike en "demokratiese konsolidering" as afhanklike veranderlike. Die hipotese waardeur hulle in verband gestel word, is as volg: Hoe grater die middelstand, hoe grater die waarskynlikheid vir die konsolidasie van demokrasie. Vanuit 'n empiriese perspektief toets die navorsing die bogenoemde hipotese deur gebruik te maak van uitgebreide kwantitatiewe data. Albei veranderlikes word ge-operasionaliseer en hul groeitendense word gemeet, aangebied en verduidelik. Middelstand word in terme van beroep ge-operasionaliseer. Gekonsolideerde demokrasie word in terme van politieke verdraagsaamheid en vertroue in instellings ge-operasionaliseer. Politieke verdraagsaamheid bon verband met die prosedurele aspek van demokrasie, terwyl vertroue verband bon met die substantiewe dimensie van demokrasie. Die vemaamste bevindings waartoe gekom is, is, aan die een kant, dat die middelstand in Suid-Afrika besig is om uit te brei en voorheen uitgeslote sektore - veral Swartes - te inkorporeer en, aan die ander kant, dat demokrasie besig is om vanuit 'n prosedurele oogpunt - toename in politieke verdraagsaamheid - te konsolideer, maar nie vanuit 'n substantiewe oogpunt - afname van vertroue in die instellings - nie. Gevolglik word die oorspronklike hipotese soos volg herformuleer: 'n Toename in die middelstand gedurende die eerste }are van demokrasie dui aan dat die demokrasie besig is om ''prosedureel" te konsolideer. Teen die agtergrond van die bevindings is daar ruimte vir verdere navorsing wat inligting sal verskaf aangaande die moontlikheid daarvan dat 'n demokrasie net maar prosedureel kan konsolideer, en of die substantiewe dimensie essensieel is vir suksesvolle konsolidasie. Verdere navorsing sou ook kon bepaal of die voorafgaande toename in vertroue gedurende 1999 'n werklike ommekeer aandui, en of dit aan ander redes toegeskryf moet word.

Thesis (DPhil (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / Bibliography / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this dissertation I explore people’s perceptions of the causes of poverty. Literature reveals that there are three broad theoretical explanations of perceptions of the causes of poverty: individualistic explanations, where blame is placed squarely on the poor themselves; structural explanations, where poverty is blamed on external social and economic forces; and fatalistic explanations, which attribute poverty to factors such as bad luck or illness. Furthermore, the findings of studies reviewed showed that these explanations interact with socio-economic and demographic variables such as race, geographical location, education, lived poverty index (LPI), living standard measure (LSM) and employment. I therefore critically examine explanations of poverty among South Africans as measured by individualistic, structural and fatalistic dimensions and how it interacts with the socio-economic and demographic variables. Employing a national representative survey of 3510 adults aged 18 and older conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council between 18 April and 30 May 2006 the findings of the present study confirmed most of the theoretical arguments cited in the literature. For instance, South Africans, in general, perceive the causes of poverty in structural terms, but a large proportion of respondents also perceive the causes of poverty in individualistic terms. Access to basic necessities influenced perceptions of the causes of poverty since the poor mostly perceived poverty in structural rather than individualistic terms. White South Africans in contrast to black Africans perceive the causes of poverty mostly in individualistic terms. Coloured respondents are the most fatalistic in their perceptions of the causes of poverty. Further analysis show that respondents living in traditional areas compared to those in urban formal areas are less likely to have structural perceptions of the causes of poverty. This is a very interesting finding because my examination on the extent of lived poverty in showed that the urban formal areas have the smallest proportion of respondents that have gone without basic necessities over the past year if contrasted to the traditional, rural formal and urban informal areas. I found that education had no significant impact on structural perceptions of the causes of poverty. In spite of my assessment of the extent of access to basic necessities which revealed that a large proportion of respondents with primary education compared to those with tertiary education go without these basic necessities. In addition, the study found that the relationship between the socio-economic and demographic variables and the structural, individualistic and fatalistic perceptions of the causes of poverty is considerably more complex and that it is possible for the race group, level of education, employment status and geographical location of the respondent all to interact in a multidimensional manner and have an impact on how the causes of poverty is perceived. However, the three linear regressions examining the relationship between the socio-economic and demographic variables and the structural, individualistic and fatalistic perceptions of the causes of poverty should be interpreted with caution because the explanatory power of the three regression models is quite weak (as indicated by Adjusted R²). In sum, the present study is extremely relevant in many ways and makes a unique contribution at both a methodological and policy level. Methodologically, the findings showed that the LPI may contribute to the proposed poverty line suggested for South Africa. As such, the findings offer a valuable message for the country’s decision makers about South Africans’ perceptions of the causes of poverty. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie verhandeling ondersoek die persepsies van die publiek met verwysing na die oorsake van armoede. Die literatuur dui op drie breë teoretiese verklarings aangaande persepsies oor die oorsake van armoede: individualistiese verklarings wat die blaam vierkantig op die armes self plaas, strukturele verklarings wat armoede toeskryf aan eksterne sosiale en ekonomiese magte en dan fatalistiese verklarings wat armoede toeskryf aan faktore soos die noodlot of siekte. Navorsing toon dat hierdie verklarings in interaksie met sosio-demografies, ekonomiese veranderlikes soos ras, geografiese ligging, opvoeding, indiensneming; die ‘Lived Poverty Index’ en geslag verkeer. Die huidige verhandeling ondersoek dus krities die verklarings, in terme van armoede onder Suid-Afrikaners, soos gemeet deur die individualistiese, strukturele en fatalistiese dimensies en hul interaksie met sosio-demografiese en ekonomiese veranderlikes. ‘n Nasionale verteenwoordingende opname van 3,510 volwassenes, 18 jaar en ouer wat tussen 18 April en 30 Mei 2009 deur die Raad vir Geesteswetenskaplike Navorsing uitgevoer het die meeste van die teoretiese argumente waarna in die literatuur verwys word bevestig. Byvoorbeeld, Suid-Afrikaners het oor die algemeen armoede vanuit strukturele perspektief waargeneem. Groot proporsie van respondente het armoede egter aan individualistiese faktore toegeskryf. Toegang tot basiese noodsaaklikhede het die persepsies van armoede beïnvloed aangesien die armes armoede meestal toegeskryf het aan strukturele eerder as individualistiese dimensies. Blankes, in vergelyking met Swart Suid-Afrikaners, het individualistiese eerder as strukturele persepties getoon. Kleurling repondente was die mees fatalisties aangaande hul persepsies oor die oorsake van armoede. Respondente wat in tradisionele landelike areas woon het armoede in mindere mate toegeskryf aan strukturele persepsies in vergelyking met repondente woonagtig in formele stedelike areas. Dit was baie interesante resultaat omdat daar verwag is dat respondente wat in tradisionele landelike areas woon armoede eerder sou toeskryf aan strukturele persepsies, terwyl repondente woonagtig in formele stedelike areas meer individualistiese persepsies sou openbaar. Die studie het ook bevind dat opvoeding en indiensneming geen merkwaardige invloed het op persepsies oor die oorsake van armoede nie. ‘n Verdere bevinding van die studie was dat die verhouding tussen die sosio-ekonomiese en demografiese veranderlikes en die struturele, individualistiese en fatalistiese persepsies van armoede aansienlik meer ingewikkeld en kompleks is. Dit is dus moontlik dat die rassegroep, vlak van opvoeding, indiensnemingstatus en geografiese ligging van respondent saam op multi-dimensionele manier in interaksie kan verkeer en dus impak kan hê op hoe armoede deur die respondent gesien word. Dit is belangrik om daarop te let dat die drie regressie analises wat die verhouding tussen die sosioekonomiese en demografiese veranderlikes en die struturele, individualistiese en fatalistiese persepsies van armoede ondersoek baie versigtig geinterpreteer moet word aangesien die verklaringsterkte van die drie regressies baie swak is. Ter opsomming was die studie onder bespreking uiters relevant ten opsigte van verskeie areas en het dit dus unieke bydrae gemaak tot beide metodologiese en beleidskwessies. Metodologies het die bevindinge getoon dat die ‘Lived Poverty Index’ kan bydra tot die voorgestelde armoede-lyn vir Suid-Afrika. Die bevindinge bied waardevolle inligting vir die land se besluitnemers aangaande Suid-Afrikaners se persepsies oor die oorsake van armoede.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the aftermath of the Second World War, the development challenges facing Third World countries - those that were independent, those emerging from colonialism and those still under colonialism - led to the proliferation of bilateral and multilateral development institutions. These institutions were intended to assist the developing countries in terms of the provision of both human (technical) skills and material resources as well as to formulate programmes that would promote co-operation for socio-economic development and transformation. If the enormous development problems facing Africa including poverty, hunger, disease can be alleviated, then multilateral institutions have a major role to play in its scientific and technological development as well as in helping to create the appropriate institutional mechanisms for regional and sub-regional co-operation in science and technology (S&T) in Africa. The United Nations system, including UN-affiliated institutions, has therefore come to represent the best hope of realising the dream of most developing countries in their quest for development, due to its institutional capacity to provide development assistance as well as influence the international development agenda which affects Africa. For example, among the institutions in this study, the World Bank Group remains the biggest donor organisation in terms of the funding of development projects and programmes. UNESCO has a leading role as the UN agency whose mandate relates directly to S&T development and peace. The ECA is the representative body of the UN in Africa and therefore able to influence the direction of development policy and programmes. Similarly, the need to develop also led African countries to establish their own regional and sub-regional institutions for co-operation to draw together both human and material resources. However, the development issues discussed and promoted in the developing world over the years have focused more on national income, terms of trade, market access and in recent times on structural adjustment and poverty reduction strategy programmes. But the most important aspect of the development process - the knowledge capability gap (in terms of S&T) - has been much neglected especially at the regional and sub-regional levels. Therefore, in using regional and sub-regional levels of analyses, the research project looks at the programmes supported by the following institutions: the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), the World Bank, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Organisation of African Unity (OAU), the African Development Bank (AIDB), the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Thus the study uses a theorydriven evaluation based on INEXSK (INfrastructure, EXperience and Skills, and Knowledge) approach broadly, to investigate the extent to which these multilateral institutions live up to their stated goals of improving the knowledge base for development in the African continent. An important aspect of the study also entails a historical review of science, technology and institutional co-operation in Africa. Furthermore, an important outcome of the study reveals the lack of functional regional and sub-regional organisational frameworks to promote rigorous scientific and technological research and development in the African continent, except for a few centres and programmes supported by some multilateral and bilateral institutions including NGOs. In spite of many years of structural adjustment the World Bank's lending for S&T has marginalised African countries; while the AIDB support for S&T and regional programmes is woefully inadequate. This is a momentous task it has to address if the NEP AD Initiative is to be successful in the years ahead. To guide future initiatives the study draws on the lessons and experiences of the European Union's and the Association of South East Asian Nations' (ASEAN) regional scientific and technology co-operation programmes. The study advocates a knowledge-based development paradigm, which is transnational in approach, and it makes specific recommendations for regional and sub-regional programmes and strategies to promote the socio-economic development and transformation of Africa. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: OPSOMMING Ná afloop van die Tweede Wêreldoorlog het Derde Wêreldlande - dié reeds onafhanklik, óf besig om kolonialisme af te skud, óf nog steeds onder 'n koloniale moondheid se bewind - sekere ontwikkelingstruikelblokke en -uitdagings in die gesig gestaar. Dit het gelei tot die totstandkoming van verskeie bilaterale en multilaterale ontwikkelingsinstellings. Die doel met sulke instellings se hulpverlening aan ontwikkelende lande was drieledig: om tegniese vaardighede aan te bied; om materiële hulpmiddele te verskaf; en om programme, wat samewerking vir sosio-ekonomiese ontwikkeling en transformasie sou bevorder, te formuleer. Indien die las van die geweldige ontwikkelingsprobleme in Afrika (insluitend armoede, hongersnood en siektes) verlig sou kon word, het multilaterale instellings 'n belangrike rol om te vervul: om te help met, enersyds, die wetenskaplike en tegnologiese ontwikkeling van die kontinent, en andersyds die ontwikkeling van toepaslike institusionele meganismes vir streek- en sub-streeksamewerking in wetenskap en tegnologie (W&T). As gevolg van die Verenigde Nasies se institusionele kapasiteit om ontwikkelingshulp te verskaf, asook om die internasionale ontwikkelingsagenda te beïnvloed, verteenwoordig dié stelsel die beste hoop van die meeste ontwikkelende lande om hulle ontwikkelingsdrome te verwesenlik. Van die instellings wat by die VN geaffillieer is, en wat in hierdie ondersoek geëvalueer word, is die Wêreldbankgroep, die grootste skenkerorganisasie vir die befondsing van ontwikkelingsprogramme en -projekte. So ook het UNESCO 'n leiersrol as die VN agentskap van wie die mandaat direk betrekking het op die ontwikkeling van W&T. Die EKA is die liggaam wat Afrika verteenwoordig by die VN, en beïnvloed daarom die koers van ontwikkelingsbeleid en -programme. Die noodsaak om die kontinent te ontwikkel het ook gelei daartoe dat Afrikalande hulle eie streek- en sub-streekliggame, wat menslike en materiële hulpbronne bymekaar bring, begin stig het. Die ontwikkelingskwessies wat oor die jare in die ontwikkelende wêreld bespreek en aangemoedig is, het egter meer en meer gefokus op nasionale inkomste, handelsvoorwaardes, toegang tot markte en, in die afgelope tyd, strukturele aanpassings en armoede verligtingstrategie programme. Die belangrikste deel van die ontwikkelingsproses - die vernouing van die kennisgaping in W&T - is gevolglik afgeskeep, veral op streek- en substreekvlak. Hierdie navorsingsprojek analiseer dus, op streek- en sub-streekvlak, ontwikkelingsprogramme wat deur die volgende instansies ondersteun word: die Verenigde Nasies se Opvoedkundige, Wetenskaplike en Kulturele Organisasie (UNESCO), die Wêreldbank, die Verenigde Nasies se Ekonomiese Kommissie vir Afrika (EKA), die Organisasie vir Afrika-eenheid (OAE), die Ontwikkelingsbank van Afrika, die Suider- Afrikaanse Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap en die Ekonomiese Gemeenskap van Wes-Afrikaanse State. Die navorsing gebruik 'n teorie-gedrewe evaluering gebaseer op 'n INEXSK ("INfrastructure, EXperience and Skills, and Knowlege") benadering, om te bepaal in watter mate hierdie multilaterale instellings hulle doelwitte, met betrekking tot die verbetering van die kennisbasis vir ontwikkeling van die Afrika-kontinent, bereik. 'n Historiese oorsig van die wetenskaplike, tegnologiese en institusionele samewerking in Afrika vorm 'n belangrike deel van die navorsingsverslag. Die navorsing dui ook op 'n gebrek aan funksionele organisatoriese raamwerke om op streek en sub-streekvlak streng wetenskaplike en tegnologiese navorsing en ontwikkeling aan te wakker en te bevorder. (Daar is darem 'n paar noemenswaardige uitsonderings van sentra en programme wat deur party van die bilaterale en multilaterale instellings ondersteun word.) Ten spyte van strukturele aanpassings wat oor baie jare plaasgevind het, het die Wêreldbank se lenings vir W&T Afrikalande gemarginaliseer; en die Ontwikkelingsbank van Afrika se ondersteuning vir W&T en streeksprogramme is heeltemal ontoereikend. Daar is 'n geweldige taak wat in die toekoms aangespreek moet word indien die NEPAD inisiatief hoop om suksesvol te wees. Die verslag gebruik die lesse en ervarings van die Europese Unie en die Vereniging van Suid- Asiatiese Lande se streeksamewerkingsprogramme vir wetenskap en tegnologie as rigtingwyser vir toekomstige inisiatiewe. Die verslag beveel 'n transnasionale kennisgebaseerde ontwikkelingsparadigma aan, en maak spesifieke aanbevelings vir streek en sub-streekprogramme en strategieë om die sosio-ekonomiese ontwikkeling en transformasie van Afrika te bevorder.

Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Since the early 1960s, when the majority of African countries gained independence from colonial powers, the continent has been in turmoil. Conflicts have been extensive, and detrimental to economic, political and above all, social development. Today, Africa is under more pressure than ever to find solutions for these conflicts. The situation is complicated by the complex and difficult challenges brought on by a rapidly globalising world. Also conflicts have often been characterised by internal, as well as regional proportions. Coupled with this, the threats facing Southern Africa are of such a nature that they transcend national boundaries, and have a tendency to effect entire regions as opposed to individual states. Thus threats no longer endanger states, but rather their people. fn view of this, conflict resolution requires a regional approach as well, in order to ensure a viable and lasting solution. This thesis attempts to evaluate the contribution of regional co-operation to conflict resolution in Southern Africa. Two concepts imperative to this evaluation are regionalism and security. Both are examined and juxtaposed. The author determines that the concepts have changed dramatically since the end of the Cold War period, and that new regionalism and new security approaches need to be considered in addressing conflicts, since traditional interpretations have become obsolete, particularly in the developing world. Furthermore, an examination of the international, regional and sub-regional organisations, concerned with conflict management on the continent, is carried out. The United Nations and the Southern African Development Community, together with their efforts in Southern Africa analysed. The author takes the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as a case study, and concludes that the persisting conflict has ensued precisely because regional co-operation was inadequate. The states and leaders involved did not take into account the regional dimensions of the conflict, and also ignored threats to human security. Regional co-operation was at a minimal, and involvement has until now been predominantly unilateral and statist, marked by personal interests, and not those of the population. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sedert die vroeë sestigerjare, toe die meerderheid Afrikalande onafhankliheid van koloniale magte verkry het, was die kontinent in onrus gehul. Dit was omvattende konflik - konflik wat nadelig was vir ekonomiese, politieke en veral sosiale ontwikkeling. Vandag, meer as ooit tevore, is Afrika onder druk om oplossings te vind vir hierdie konflikte. Die situasie word gekompliseer deur die uitdagings gestel deur 'n vinnig globaliserende wêreld. Die konflik word dikwels deur interne sowel as streeksafmetings gekenmerk. Hiermee saam is die bedreigings wat op Suidelike Afrika 'n invloed het van so 'n aard dat dit nasionale grense ignoreer en die geneigdheid het om totale streke, in teenstelling met individuele state, te beïnvloed. Hierdie bedreigings stel dus nie state in gevaar nie, maar eerder hul mense. Om 'n lewensvatbare en blywende effek te hê, benodig konflikoplossing dus ook 'n streeksbenadering aan te neem. Hierdie tesis poog om die bydrae van streekssamewerking, ten einde konflikoplossing in Suidelike Afrika te bewerkstellig, te evalueer. Beide word ondersoek en in verband gebring. Die skrywer bevind dat die konsepte drasties verander het sedert die einde van die Koue Oorlog tydperk, en dat nuwe regionalisme en nuwe sekuriteit benaderings oorweeg moet word, aangesien tradisionele interpretasies verouderd, veral in die ontwikkelende wêreld, is. Verder word internasionale, regionale en sub-regionale organisasies wat gemoeid is met konflikhantering op die kontinent, ook ondersoek. Die Verenigde Nasies en die Suidelike Afrika Ontwikkelings Gemeenskap (SADe), tesame met hul pogings in Suidelike Africa, word geanaliseer. Die skrywer maak gebruik van die konflik in die Demokratiese Republiek van die Kongo as gevallestudie, en kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat konflik ontstaan het juis omdat regionale samewerking nooit werklik gerealiseer het nie. Die betrokke state en leiers het nie die streeksdimensies van die konflik in ag geneem nie, en ook menslike sekuriteit bedreigings ignoreer. Regionale samewerking was beperk tot In minimum, en betrokkenheid was tot nou toe oorwegend eensydig en staats georienteerd, en gekenmerk deur persoonlike belange, en nie dié van die bevolking nie.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Nigeria is a country that has witnessed ongoing – albeit sporadic – violent conflict since its independence in 1960 from Britain. A brutal civil war, known as the Biafra war, lasting from 1967 to 1970, was not to end social tensions in this ethnically diverse country. Violent conflict has been an ongoing reality since the end of the Biafra war in 1970. In addition, Nigeria has exhibited substantial environmental degradation and resource scarcity during this time. Hence, this study assesses whether environmental degradation and resource scarcity are independent causes of domestic violent conflict in Nigeria since the end of the Biafra war. Additionally, rich reserves of natural non-renewable resources – in particular the prevalence of oil – are analysed vis-à-vis the degradation and growing scarcity of renewable resources in order to consider the impact both these aspects have on post civil war conflict in Nigeria. In order to achieve this, this study concerns itself primarily with causation. It considers two aspects in this regard. Firstly, it evaluates the assertion that the environment is an independent cause of conflict. That is to say, it investigates the notion that the environment impacts independently on human behaviour. Secondly, it examines the components of the social structure that create conditions that manipulate the environment in such a way that conflict is the ultimate outcome. This study asserts that the agency-structure composite is important to understand in order to examine violent conflict and its relationship with the environment in Nigeria. This relationship-structure-cause premise is examined by using a complex theory framework. Consequently, importance is placed on the causal relationship between violent conflict, environmental degradation and scarcity, natural non-renewable resource dependency and the social, economic and political milieu in which this transpires. This study ascertains that severe environmental change can only be considered a cause of conflict when its impact is considered with other important factors such as economic and political anonymity, which – for the most part – create the milieu in which subsequent violent conflict is the outcome. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Nigerië is 'n land wat deurlopend kan getuig, alhoewel sporadies, dat daar sedert sy onafhanklikheid van Brittanje in 1960, geweldadige konflik was. 'n Brutale burgelike oorlog wat geduur het vanaf 1967 to 1970, het geensins die sosiale spanning ge-eindig vir hierdie etniese diverse land nie. Gewelddadige konflik is 'n deurlopende werklikheid sedert die einde van die burgeroorlog in 1970. Daarbenewens het Nigerië uitgestaan vir hul aansienlike agteruitgang van die omgewing en hulpbron-skaarste gedurende hierdie tyd. Vandaar hierdie studie om te bepaal of die omgewing se agteruitgang en hulpbron-skaarste 'n onafhanklike oorsaak is van binnelandse geweldadige konflik in Nigerië, sedert die einde van die burgeroorlog. Daarby, ryk reserwes van natuurlike nie-hernubare hulpbronne, in die besonder die voorkoms van olie wat betref die agteruitgang en die toenemende skaarsheid van hernubare hulpbronne, word ontleed ten einde die impak van hierdie twee aspekte op post-burgeroorlog konflik in Nigerië te oorweeg. Ten einde dit te bereik, gebruik hierdie studie oorsaaklikheidsleer. Daar is twee aspekte in hierdie verband wat in aanmerking geneem word. Eerstens is die bewering dat die omgewing die onafhanklike oorsaak is van konflik. Dit wil sê, dit ondersoek die idée dat die omgewing 'n onafhanklike impak het op menslike gedrag. Dit ondersoek, tweedens, die komponente van die sosiale struktuur wat die omstandighede skep wat die omgewing op so 'n wyse manipuleer, dat konflik die uiteindelike uitkoms is. Hierdie studie beweer dat die agent-struktuur verhouding belangrik is om te verstaan ten einde geweldadige konflik en die verhouding met die omgewing in Nigerië te ondersoek. Hierdie verhouding-struktuur-oorsaak uitgangspunt is ondersoek deur gebruik te maak van 'n komplekse teorie raamwerk. Gevolglik word die belangrikheid geplaas op die oorsaaklike verband tussen gewelddadige konflik, die agteruitgang van die omgewing en skaarsheid, nie-hernubare afhanklikheid en die sosiale, ekonomiese en politieke milieu waarin dit voorkom. Hierdie studie stel vas dat ernstige omgewingsverandering slegs oorweeg kan word as 'n oorsaak van konflik as die impak daarvan oorweeg word met ander belangrike faktore soos ekonomiese en politieke anonimiteit, wat, vir die grootste deel, die omgewing skep waarin die daaropvolgende geweldadige konflik die uitkoms is.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study set out to research the influence of a local non-state actor on the role and authority of the state, in the domestic environment. Accordingly, the research problem focused on the impact of a domestic actor on the association between the state and the society. This study only focused on the state at the level of local government and the impact of one specific actor, organised criminal groups, on social control by the state. Thus, state-society relations were discussed in this context. In order to guide this study, the main and two supportive research questions were stated as follows: What is the impact of organised crime on the social control by the state? What are the power dynamics between local governance, criminal agents and society? Has the state become criminalised at the level of local government, as a result of the activities of organised crime, and if so, to what extent? The state thus functioned as the dependent variable and organised criminal groups as the independent variable. The theoretical foundation of this study was located in state-society relations, and specific reference was given to the work of Migdal (1988) and his analysis of state social control, pyramidal and weblike societies. Furthermore, a neo-pluralist view of the state was followed. A conceptualisation of the criminalisation of the state was provided, as the criminalisation of the state was regarded as one possible impact of organised crime on the state. In order to analyse the criminalisation of the state, a framework was constructed from four main avenues of empirical observation. In order to answer the research questions, a case study research design and a predominantly qualitative methodology was selected. As a case, the City of Cape Town was selected and Manenberg, located on the Cape Flats, as the site for the research. A case study research design created the opportunity to describe the context in detail and to connect the micro level of analysis to the macro level; thus, it provided insight on the research topic that enabled the researcher to expand/build theory. The field research process occurred over a period of three months using a triangulation of methods: Key informant interview, small group discussions and observation with three categories of respondents. These three categories included: Community members of Manenberg, organised criminal groups and agents of local government and local governance. In order to set the stage for the empirical analysis, a contextualisation of the dependent and independent variables were provided. It was stated that there is a lack of a universally agreed upon definition of organised crime, and as a result, a conceptualisation of organised crime was generated for this study. It was further argued that the majority of literature treats organised criminal groups and organised criminal gangs as two separate concepts, despite the fact that there are more similarities than differences. Thus, for the purpose of this study, a conclusion was reached that the difference is inconsequential. The development of organised crime in South Africa and an examination of the historical development of the gangs on the Cape Flats were described. With regards to the dependent variable, the context was provided for an analysis of local government in South Africa. The demographical and operational features of the municipal area of the City of Cape Town were explained, with specific reference to safety and security elements. The primary data collected was analysed according to the indicators of social control (compliance, participation and legitimacy), as identified by Migdal (1988). In addition, the framework to analyse the criminalisation of the state at the level of local government was applied on the case study. Based on the analysis, a different system, to what was described by Migdal (1988) in his narrative of a triangle of accommodation was found to be in operation in Manenberg on the Cape Flats. It was confirmed that there is the presence of a weakened state and accordingly, a weblike society, where social control is fragmented between local government and the criminal community. However, in this weblike society a system of local power dynamics exists between the criminal community, social community and local agents of governance, where dyadic collaboration occurs between all three the actors. However, despite the collaboration, the criminalisation of the state does not occur, but rather the statification of the organised criminal community, as it provides goods and service to the social community. The main findings can be summarised as: If a state lacks extensive social control and a rival authority has claimed a level of social control, this will not necessarily lead to the further weakening of the state, as a result of a system of power dynamics in place, where collaboration between the social community, the criminal community and local agents of governance occurs. This system is kept in place by: On-going efforts by the state to maintain (or regain) compliance, participation and legitimacy; corrupt agents of the state (specifically in the security sector); a level of operational ease that exists for the criminal community (and the interweaving of the criminal community in the social community) and a relatively strong society that acknowledges the benefits of criminal activities for the social community, but also recognises the authority and control of the state. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie het ten doel om die uitwerking van 'n plaaslike nie-staatsrolspeler op die rol en gesag van die staat in die plaaslike omgewing te ondersoek. Vervolgens fokus die navorsingsvraag op die impak van 'n plaaslike rolspeler op die verhouding tussen die staat en die samelewing. Die studie fokus op die staat op plaaslike regeringsvlak en op die impak van een spesifieke rolspeler, georganiseerde misdaadgroepe. Staat-samelewing-verhoudinge is dus teen hierdie agtergrond bespreek. Om die studie te rig, is die hoof- en twee ondersteunende navorsingsvrae soos volg gestel: Wat is die impak van georganiseerde misdaad op die sosiale beheer van die staat? Wat is die magsdinamiek tussen die plaaslike regeringsvlak, kriminele agente en die samelewing? Is die staat gekriminaliseer op plaaslike regeringsvlak as gevolg van die resultate van georganiseerde misdaadbedrywighede en, indien wel, in hoe 'n mate? Die staat vorm dus die afhanklike veranderlike en georganiseerde misdaadgroepe die onafhanklike veranderlike. Die teoretiese begronding vir hierdie studie is gevind in staat-samelewing-verhoudinge en die werk van Migdal (1988), spesifiek sy analise van staat-sosiale beheer en piramiede- en webvormige samelewings, word genoem. Verder is 'n neo-pluralistiese beskouing van die staat ingeneem. 'n Konseptualisering van die kriminalisering van die staat word verskaf, aangesien dit voorsien is as een moontlike impak van georganiseerde misdaad op die staat. Ten einde die kriminalisering van die staat te ontleed, is 'n raamwerk opgebou uit vier hoofrigtings van empiriese observasie. 'n Gevallestudie is as navorsingsontwerp gebruik om die navorsingsvrae te beantwoord, met hoofsaaklik 'n kwalitatiewe metodologie. As 'n geval is die Stad Kaapstad gekies, met Manenberg op die Kaapse Vlakte as die terrein vir die navorsing. Die gevallestudie-navorsingsontwerp het die geleentheid geskep om die konteks in detail te beskryf en die mikrovlak-analise met die makrovlak-analise te verbind; derhalwe het dit insig verskaf wat die navorser in staat gestel het om teorie (uit) te bou. Die veldwerkproses het oor 'n tydperk van drie maande deur drie metodes plaasgevind: onderhoude met sleutelinformante, kleingroepbesprekings, en observasies met drie kategorieë respondente. Hierdie drie kategorieë is gemeenskapslede van Manenberg, georganiseerde misdaadgroepe, en agente van plaaslike regering en bestuur. Ten einde die empiriese navorsing op te stel, is 'n kontekstualisering van die afhanklike en onafhanklike veranderlikes verskaf. Dit is gestel dat daar 'n gebrek is aan 'n universeel-aanvaarde definisie van georganiseerde misdaad, en as gevolg hiervan is 'n konseptualisering vir hierdie studie gevorm. Daar is verder geargumenteer dat die meerderheid literatuur georganiseerde misdaadgroepe en georganiseerde misdaadbendes as twee aparte konsepte hanteer, ten spyte daarvan dat hierdie groeperinge veel meer ooreenstem as verskil. Vervolgens is die gevolgtrekking gemaak dat die verskil nie betekenisvol is nie. Die ontwikkeling van georganiseerde misdaad in Suid-Afrika en 'n ontleding van die historiese ontwikkeling van bendes op die Kaapse Vlakte is beskryf. Rakende die afhanklike veranderlike, is die konteks verskaf vir 'n analise van plaaslike regering in Suid-Afrika. Die demografiese en operasionele kenmerke van die munisipale area van die Stad Kaapstad is uiteengesit, met spesifieke verwysing na veiligheid- en sekuriteitselemente. Die primêre ingesamelde data is ontleed aan die hand van die indikatore van sosiale beheer (nakoming, deelname en legitimiteit) soos deur Migdal (1988) gedefinieer. Verder is die raamwerk om die kriminalisering van die staat op plaaslike regeringsvlak te ontleed, op die gevallestudie toegepas. Op grond van die analise is daar bevind dat 'n ander stelsel as wat Migdal (1988) in sy narratief van ‟n driehoek van akkommodasie beskryf het, in Manenberg op die Kaapse Vlakte voorkom. Dit is bevestig dat daar 'n verswakte staat voorkom en, vervolgens, 'n webvormige samelewing, waar sosiale beheer gefragmenteer is tussen die plaaslike regering en die kriminele gemeenskap. In hierdie webvormige samelewing bestaan egter 'n stelsel van plaaslike magsdinamiek tussen die kriminele gemeenskap, die sosiale gemeenskap en plaaslike regeringsagente, waar diadiese medewerking tussen al drie die akteurs voorkom. Ten spyte van hierdie samewerking, kom die kriminalisering van die staat egter nie voor nie, maar eerder 'n verstaatliking van die georganiseerde misdaadgemeenskap, aangesien dit goedere en dienste aan die sosiale gemeenskap verskaf. Die hoofbevindinge kan soos volg saamgevat word: As 'n staat nie uitgebreide sosiale beheer het nie en 'n mededingende gesag het 'n vlak van sosiale beheer opgeëis, sal dit nie noodwendig lei tot die verdere verswakking van die staat nie, as gevolg van 'n stelsel van magsdinamiek wat in plek is waar medewerking tussen die sosiale gemeenskap, die kriminele gemeenskap en plaaslike agente van bestuur voorkom. Hierdie stelsel word in plek gehou deur aaneenlopende pogings deur die staat om nakoming, deelname en legitimiteit te verkry (of terug te kry), korrupte staatsagente (spesifiek in die sekuriteitsektor), 'n vlak van operasionele gemak wat vir die kriminele gemeenskap bestaan (en die vervlegting van kriminele gemeenskap en die sosiale gemeenskap), en 'n relatiewe sterk samelewing wat die voordele van kriminele aktiwiteit vir die sosiale gemeenskap erken, maar so ook die gesag en beheer van die staat.

Thesis (MA)-- Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study applies a modified bureaucratic policy process model to analyse contemporary South African – Japanese relations, particularly in regards to a proposed Economic Partnership Agreement, and the experiences of Japanese agencies within South Africa. South Africa and Japan are major trade partners, and the Japanese government has a significant presence in the African aid scene via the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD), and through the works of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). South African – Japanese relations have been documented in a modest but respectable fashion by a range of researchers, including Alden, Skidmore and Osada. The bureaucratic policy process model has been used in an array of studies on international relations and decision making, notably by Graham Allison. However, it has not been previously applied to South African – Japanese relations. As a result, there is a dearth of information on how bureaucratic dynamics affect Japanese – South African relations. In response to this, a modified bureaucratic policy process model is used to analyse contemporary South African – Japanese governmental relations. A literature review of primary and secondary sources is undertaken, consisting of a historical review of South African – Japanese relations. Following this, a brief overview of contemporary literature on South African – Japanese relations is performed. This includes both secondary sources and primary sources relating to government bureaucracies current priorities and strategies. Material on TICAD is included in this section. Interviews with government officials from both the Japanese and South African governments are carried out using a modified snowball sampling system. The interviews provide insights into the different bureaucratic organization’s priorities and programmes, as well as their relationships with other organizations. From this data, two emergent themes are addressed: the failure of a contemplated Free Trade Agreement / Economic Partnership Agreement and the way in which Japanese agencies, particularly JICA, operate within the South Africa context. It is found that the FTA failed due to welfare concerns from the South African Department of Trade and Industry, as well as greater complications relating to trade agreements in general. These greater complications stem from the involvement of regional bodies such as the South African Customs Union. Japanese agencies are found to be constrained within South Africa by a lack of resources as well as by the independent and somewhat sceptical attitude of South African government agencies towards Japanese aid efforts. It is proposed that the relevance of extra national bureaucracies to the decision making process surrounding the FTA has implications for deploying the bureaucratic policy process model, which has generally only considered national bureaucracies in discussing how decisions are made. It is further suggested that South African trade deals are complicated by the country’s location within the South African Customs Union and the South African Development Community, and the consequent need to consult and negotiate with third parties who are likely to be impacted by such deals. Finally, it is suggested that because both South Africa and Japan face significant, but different economic challenges, they should prioritise improving their economic relations. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie het ’n aangepaste burokratiese beleidsprosesmodel gebruik om die hedendaagse betrekkinge tussen Suid-Afrika en Japan te ontleed, veral wat betref ’n voorgestelde ekonomiese vennootskapsooreenkoms tussen die twee lande en die ervarings van Japannese agentskappe in Suid-Afrika. Suid-Afrika en Japan is groot handelsvennote, en die Japannese regering handhaaf ’n beduidende teenwoordigheid op die Afrika-hulptoneel deur middel van die Tokiose Internasionale Konferensie oor Afrika-ontwikkeling (TICAD) en die werk van die Japannese Internasionale Samewerkingsagentskap (JICA). Verskeie navorsers, waaronder Alden, Skidmore en Osada, het die betrekkinge tussen Suid-Afrika en Japan al op beskeie dog aansienlike wyse beskryf. Die burokratiese beleidsprosesmodel is al in ’n rits studies oor internasionale betrekkinge en besluitneming gebruik, in die besonder deur Graham Allison. Tog is dit nog nooit voorheen op betrekkinge tussen Suid-Afrika en Japan toegepas nie. Dus bestaan daar weinig inligting oor hoe burokratiese dinamiek die betrekkinge tussen hierdie twee lande raak. In antwoord hierop is ’n aangepaste burokratiese beleidsprosesmodel dus gebruik om die hedendaagse staatsbetrekkinge tussen Suid-Afrika en Japan te ontleed. Eerstens is ’n literatuuroorsig van primêre en sekondêre bronne onderneem wat uit ’n historiese oorsig van betrekkinge tussen Suid-Afrika en Japan bestaan het. Daarná is ’n oorsig van kontemporêre literatuur oor die verhoudinge tussen die twee lande onderneem. Dít het sowel sekondêre as primêre bronne met betrekking tot die huidige prioriteite en strategieë van staatsburokrasieë ingesluit. Hierdie afdeling sluit ook materiaal oor TICAD in. Onderhoude met staatsamptenare van die Japannese sowel as die Suid-Afrikaanse regerings is met behulp van ’n aangepaste stelsel van sneeubalsteekproefneming gevoer. Die onderhoude bied insig in die verskillende burokratiese organisasies se prioriteite en programme, sowel as hul verhoudings met ander organisasies. Twee temas wat uit hierdie data na vore gekom het, is vervolgens bespreek: die mislukking van ’n beoogde vryehandel-/ekonomiese vennootskapsooreenkoms, en die funksionering van Japannese agentskappe, veral JICA, in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks. Daar word bevind dat die vryehandelsooreenkoms misluk het weens welsynsbesware van die Suid-Afrikaanse Departement van Handel en Nywerheid, sowel as groter komplikasies met betrekking tot handelsooreenkomste in die algemeen. Hierdie groter komplikasies hou verband met die betrokkenheid van streeksliggame soos die Suider-Afrikaanse Doeane-unie. Voorts blyk Japannese agentskappe in Suid-Afrika aan bande gelê te word deur ’n gebrek aan hulpbronne, sowel as Suid-Afrikaanse staatsagentskappe se onafhanklike en effens skeptiese houding jeens Japannese hulppogings. Die studie doen aan die hand dat die relevansie van bykomende nasionale burokrasieë in die besluitnemingsproses oor die vryehandelsooreenkoms bepaalde implikasies inhou vir die gebruik van die burokratiese beleidsprosesmodel, wat meestal slegs rekening hou met enkele nasionale burokrasieë se rol in besluitneming. Voorts blyk dit dat Suid-Afrikaanse handelstransaksies bemoeilik word deur die land se lidmaatskap van die Suider-Afrikaanse Doeane-unie en die Suider-Afrikaanse Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap, en die gevolglike behoefte om oorleg te pleeg met derde partye wat waarskynlik deur sulke transaksies geraak sal word. Laastens word aangevoer dat aangesien Suid-Afrika en Japan met beduidende dog verskillende ekonomiese uitdagings te kampe het, die verbetering van ekonomiese betrekkinge tussen die twee lande nou voorrang behoort te geniet.

Thesis (MA)-- Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The role and influence of interest groups and non-state actors in the foreign policy process remains an interesting topic for debate. This study explores the role of three South African trade union organisations, COSATU, FEDUSA and Solidariteit, in the foreign policy process of South Africa. It asks what role these trade union organisations played between 1999 and 2012 in the South African foreign policy process and what factors had a bearing on that role. The core argument of this study is that trade union organisations participate in creating public awareness of foreign policy issues among its members and the broader population. Through this role they, in turn, get involved in the foreign policy debate by promoting the participation of the masses. The dual approach of quantitative and qualitative content analysis of online news articles, statements and policy documents produced interesting results about the factors that motivate trade union interests in the South African foreign policy process. The main findings show that South African trade union organisations attempt to influence or engage in the economic and foreign policy processes when it affects their members. Their economic focus is on the extent to which economic factors have a bearing on how the macro-economic policy of the state favours the wealth and development of its citizens over the financial gain of international investors. Interesting findings are presented by the political factors that have a bearing on trade union organisations‟ roles in the foreign policy process of South Africa. The results show that trade union organisations have an inherent interest in the strengthening of democratic values, governance and the protection of human rights. Similar to the analysis of economic factors, it was found that South African trade unions show a greater interest in foreign policy events or issues that affect trade unions or workers domestically or in other states. This can be attributed to the strong sense of solidarity among trade union organisations for greater representation in political and policy processes. The findings of this study imply that South African trade union organisations are part of a growing trend among non-state actors and domestic interest groups that take an interest in issues and events beyond national borders. The results of this study correspond with arguments made in existing literature that South Africa trade union organisations play a minimal role in the making of foreign policy. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die rol en invloed van belangegroepe en niestaatsrolspelers in die vorming van buitelandse beleid bly 'n interessante onderwerp vir bespreking. Hierdie studie verken die rol van drie Suid-Afrikaanse vakbondorganisasies – Cosatu, Fedusa en Solidariteit – in die ontwikkeling van die land se buitelandse beleid. Dit ondersoek die rol wat hierdie organisasies tussen 1999 en 2012 in buitelandse beleid gespeel het, en die faktore wat daardie rol beïnvloed het. Die kernargument van hierdie studie is dat vakbondorganisasies hul lede sowel as die groter publiek van kwessies met betrekking tot buitelandse beleid help bewus maak. Deurdat hulle massadeelname aanmoedig, word die organisasies op hulle beurt by die debat oor buitelandse beleid betrek. Die dubbele benadering van kwantitatiewe én kwalitatiewe inhoudsontleding van aanlyn nuusberigte, verklarings en beleidsdokumente bring interessante resultate oor die redes vir vakbondbelangstelling in Suid-Afrikaanse buitelandse beleid aan die lig. Die hoofbevindinge toon dat Suid-Afrikaanse vakbondorganisasies die vorming van ekonomiese en buitelandse beleid probeer beïnvloed of daaraan deelneem wanneer dit hul lede raak. Ekonomies konsentreer hulle veral op die mate waarin die makro-ekonomiese beleid van die staat die welvaart en ontwikkeling van sy burgers bo finansiële gewin vir internasionale beleggers stel. Dit is egter veral die politieke beweegredes vir vakbonddeelname aan die land se buitelandse beleid wat insiggewende resultate oplewer. Die studie bevind dat vakbonde 'n inherente belang het by die versterking van demokratiese waardes en bestuur, en die beskerming van menseregte. Soos met die ekonomiese faktore, dui die ontleding van die politieke faktore ook daarop dat Suid-Afrikaanse vakbonde 'n groter belangstelling toon in gebeure of kwessies insake buitelandse beleid wat vakbonde of hul lede binnelands sowel as in ander state raak. Dít kan toegeskryf word aan die sterk samehorigheidsgevoel onder vakbondorganisasies om gesamentlik beter verteenwoordiging in politieke en beleidsprosesse te bekom. Die bevindinge van hierdie studie impliseer dat Suid-Afrikaanse vakbondorganisasies deel uitmaak van 'n toenemende tendens onder niestaatsrolspelers en binnelandse belangegroepe om al hoe meer in kwessies en gebeure buite landsgrense belang te stel. Die resultate van die studie ooreenstem met die argumente gestel in bestaande literatuur dat Suid-Afrikaanse vakbond organisasies ʼn beperkte rol binne buitelandse-beleidsmaking speel.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2014 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Equatorial Guinea has, since the mid-1990s, been an oil-rich state. With the highest GDP per capita it should be a continental leader in terms of development. Instead, it ranks in one of the worst positions on the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI). This study employs the theory of neopatrimonialism to explain why such a discrepancy in these development indicators is evident. As a result of examining the post-independence regimes in Equatorial Guinea through the theoretical lens of neo-patrimonialism it is possible to conclude that the country is afflicted by a governance curse, rather than the more narrowly defined ‘resource curse’ that has become the central explanation of the situation in the country since the discovery of oil favoured by the existing literature on the subject. Instead, this study highlights the fact that the neo-patrimonial nature of the regime in Equatorial Guinea has developed steadily over the years since independence was granted by Spain in 1968, and indeed, the seeds of this system were in fact evident during Spanish colonial control. Whilst the existing literature has focused on the role of oil in explaining the dire state that Equatorial Guinea finds itself in, this study argues that there are other central factors that need to be examined. These include: the Spanish colonial legacy that led the way for such a system to take root; the role of the first post-independence president, Macías Nguema (1968-1979) and; the regime of Obiang Nguema (1979- present). By looking at these factors in addition to the role of oil it is possible to conclude that the neo-patrimonial system in place in Equatorial Guinea has much deeper roots than the existing literature acknowledges. It is vital to examine these deeper roots in order to discover an understanding of and effective solution to the current situation. Moreover, through examining the central features and operations of the ‘predatory’ neo-patrimonial regime in Equatorial Guinea, most notably the profligate spending and evident capital flight, it is possible to acknowledge the international nature of the problem: a factor that has heretofore been neglected in the literature. A greater focus on this issue is necessary in order to understand why the regime is sustained and what prospects there can be for future regime change. The outcomes of the study suggest that a ‘predatory’ neo-patrimonial regime is the central explanation for how the political sphere operates in Equatorial Guinea. This means that there can be no distinction made between the central features of the state and the personal property of those that rule it. It is a classic, modern-day example of ‘L’État c’est moi’. As such, the Nguema family have since independence treated the state resources as their own private property to do with as they wish. This means that there has been no attention paid to the development of Equatorial Guinea as it is not in the interests of the ruling elites to do so. Instead, they utilise state resources for their own self-enrichment. Such behaviour accounts for why despite having the highest GDP per capita on the African continent, Equatorial Guinea has such a low rank in the UNDP Human Development Index. It can therefore be concluded that Equatorial Guinea is affected by a governance curse that has decimated the state since independence, rather than the popularised theory of a ‘resource curse’ which has been used in explanations since the discovery of oil in the mid-1990s. iii / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Ekwatoriaal-Guinee is reeds sedert die middel negentigerjare ’n olieryke staat. Met die hoogste BBP per capita behoort dit die leier op die vasteland te wees wat ontwikkeling betref. Dit beklee egter een van die laagste plekke op die menslike ontwikkelingsindeks (HDI) van die Verenigde Nasies se Ontwikkelingsprogram (UNDP). In hierdie studie is die teorie van neopatrimonialisme gebruik in ’n poging om die teenstrydigheid in hierdie ontwikkelingsaanwysers te verklaar. Op grond van ’n ondersoek van die regimes na onafhanklikheid in Ekwatoriaal- Guinee deur die teoretiese lens van neopatrimonialisme kan die gevolgtrekking gemaak word dat die land onder ’n regeringsvloek gebuk gaan, eerder as die eng gedefinieerde ‘hulpbronvloek’ wat die vernaamste verklaring geword het vir die situasie in die land sedert die ontdekking van olie, soos in die huidige literatuur oor die onderwerp aangevoer word. Hierdie studie beklemtoon hierteenoor die feit dat die neopatrimoniale aard van die regime in Ekwatoriaal-Guinee met verloop van tyd ontwikkel het sedert Spanje die land in 1968 onafhanklik verklaar het. Die sade van hierdie stelsel was inderwaarheid reeds sigbaar tydens Spaanse koloniale beheer. Waar die bestaande literatuur fokus op die rol van olie in die verklaring van die nypende toestand waarin Ekwatoriaal-Guinee verkeer, word in hierdie studie aangevoer dat ander kernfaktore ook ondersoek moet word. Dit sluit in die Spaanse koloniale erfenis wat die weg gebaan het vir die groei van so ’n stelsel; die rol van die eerste president na onafhanklikwording, Macias Nguema (1968–1979); en die regime van Obiang Nguema (1979 – tans). Deur hierdie faktore tesame met die rol van olie in oorweging te bring, kan die gevolgtrekking gemaak word dat die neopatrimoniale stelsel in Ekwatoriaal-Guinee veel dieper wortels het as wat in die bestaande literatuur erken word. Die ondersoek van hierdie dieper wortels is noodsaaklik ten einde begrip van en doeltreffende oplossings vir die huidige situasie te verkry. Deur die ondersoek van die kernfaktore en -bedrywighede van die ‘roofsugtige’ neopatrimoniale regime in Ekwatoriaal-Guinee, vernaamlik die roekelose verkwistinge en sigbare kapitaaluitvloei, is dit moontlik om die internasionale aard van die probleem te identifiseer – ’n faktor wat tot op hede in die literatuur nagelaat is. Groter fokus op hierdie kwessie is nodig ten einde te begryp waarom die regime volgehou word en watter vooruitsigte daar is vir toekomstige regimeverandering. Die uitkomste van hierdie studie doen aan die hand dat ’n ‘roofsugtige’ neopatrimoniale regime inderwaarheid die vernaamste verklaring is vir die werking van die politieke sfeer in Ekwatoriaal-Guinee. Dit beteken dat geen onderskeid getref kan word tussen die kerneienskappe van die staat en die persoonlike eiendom van diegene in bewind nie. Dit is ’n klassieke, hedendaagse voorbeeld van ‘L’Etat c’est moi’. As sodanig hanteer die Nguema-familie sedert onafhanklikwording die staat se hulpbronne as hul eie private eiendom wat hulle na willekeur aanwend. Dit beteken dat geen aandag gegee word aan die ontwikkeling van Ekwatoriaal-Guinee nie, aangesien dit nie in die belange van die heersende elite is om dit te doen nie, en hulle staatshulpbronne vir selfverryking gebruik. Sodanige gedrag verklaar die land se lae posisie op die UNDP se HDI. Die gevolgtrekking kan dus gemaak word dat Ekwatoriaal-Guinee onder ’n staatsvloek ly, wat die staat sedert onafhanklikwording afmaai, eerder as die gewilde teorie van ’n ‘hulpbronvloek’.

Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Brazil and South Africa were both part of the global “third-wave” of democracy, the beginnings of their democratic transitions occurring in 1985 and 1994 respectively. Despite having been formerly subjected to decades of authoritarian rule, both countries experienced a modicum of democratic practice, however limited in franchise, under the previous regimes. The purpose of this study is to investigate the levels of support for democracy in Brazil and South Africa since democratic transition. Two types of political support are identified as crucial for democratic sustainability: diffuse support, or support for democracy’s intrinsic principles, and specific support, support which is conditional on the positive evaluation of the regime institutions and incumbents. These two types of political support are conceptualized as encompassing five levels or objects of political support, according to the Norris model: the political community, regime principles, regime performance (diffuse support), regime institutions and political actors (specific support). This study proposes that because vestiges of democratic norms and practices have been present within these countries’ political systems for some time, it is possible that they will manifest trends in support similar to much older, more established democracies. These global trends indicate that diffuse support for democracy is being maintained while specific support for democracy is waning. A longitudinal quantitative study was conducted, using consecutive waves of World Values Survey to operationalize support for democracy in terms of the five abovementioned political objects and the results of South Africa and Brazil compared. These results show that both case studies could be interpreted as having fairly high levels of diffuse support and decreasing levels of specific support for democracy. It is however acknowledged that results are not conclusive and further research is required, especially with respect to how respondents conceptualize the term ‘democracy’. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Brasilië en Suid-Afrika was albei deel van die globale “derde golf” van demokrasie, met die aanvang van hulle oorgang na demokrasie onderskeidelik in 1985 en 1994. Ten spyte daarvan dat hierdie twee lande voormalig aan dekades van outoritêre gesag onderwerp is, het albei, hoewel beperk in stemreg, ’n mate van demokratiese praktyk onder ’n vorige bestel ervaar. Die doel van hierdie studie is om die steunvlakke vir demokrasie in Brasilië en Suid- Afrika sedert hulle oorgang na demokrasie te ondersoek. Twee soorte politieke steun word geïdentifiseer as deurslaggewend vir demokratiese volhoubaarheid: verspreide steun – of steun vir die intrinsieke beginsels van demokrasie – en spesifieke steun – steun wat van die positiewe evaluering van die regime se instellings en ampsbekleders afhang. Hierdie twee soorte politieke steun word deur vyf konsepte voorgestel wat die vyf vlakke of voorwerpe van politieke steun volgens die Norris-model dek: die politieke gemeenskap, regimebeginsels, regimeprestasie (verspreide steun), regime-instellings en politieke akteurs (spesifieke steun). Hierdie studie stel voor dat, aangesien spore van demokratiese norme en praktyke vir ’n geruime tyd binne hierdie lande se politieke stelsels teenwoordig was, dit moontlik is dat hulle steuntendense sal toon wat aan baie ouer, meer gevestigde demokrasieë soortgelyk is. Hierdie globale tendense toon dat verspreide steun vir demokrasie gehandhaaf word terwyl spesifieke steun vir demokrasie aan die kwyn is. ’n Longitudinale kwantitatiewe studie is onderneem wat van opeenvolgende siklusse van die “World Values Survey” gebruik maak om steun vir demokrasie in terme van die vyf bogenoemde politieke voorwerpe uit te beeld. Die resultate van Suid-Afrika en Brasilië is daarna vergelyk. Uit hierdie resultate sou afgelei kon word dat redelik hoë vlakke van verspreide steun en dalende vlakke van spesifieke steun vir demokrasie in beide gevalle voorkom. Daar word egter erken dat resultate nie beslissend is nie en dat verdere navorsing nodig is, in besonder met betrekking tot respondente se begrip van die term ‘demokrasie’.