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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
191

Elementos inibidores e facilitadores na implantação de geração distribuída no Brasil / Inhibitors and facilitators in the implementation of generation distributed in Brazil

Godoi, Luiiz Condi de 07 April 2017 (has links)
Submitted by Miriam Lucas (miriam.lucas@unioeste.br) on 2017-10-06T16:56:06Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Luiz_Condi_Godoi_2017.pdf: 1244725 bytes, checksum: 39bf07fbb65aaebd7847c0f705fe1442 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-06T16:56:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Luiz_Condi_Godoi_2017.pdf: 1244725 bytes, checksum: 39bf07fbb65aaebd7847c0f705fe1442 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-07 / Distributed Generation (DG) is seen as an alternative to reduce dependence on nonrenewable primary and pollutant sources, decentralizing the generator base and adding reliability to the power grid. Thus, several public policies to encourage the use of DG have been implemented as incentive mechanisms. However, it is necessary to verify if the current institutional environment is favorable for the promotion and development of this market in Brazil. In this context, the objective of this work is to identify the facilitating and inhibiting elements that influence the development of DG in the country, acting to mitigate uncertainties from the investors' point of view. For this, models of structure, regulatory environment, marketing rules, participating agents, modalities, segments and technologies are presented, allowing a better understanding of the current commercial model and the mechanisms used for its promotion. Through this documentary research, in addition to the analysis of the international experience, the accomplishment of case studies and semi-structured interviews, it was evaluated the context in which DG is found in Brazil, as well as in other countries, being possible to identify factors that can contribute in its growth, in order to establish facilitative strategies, highlighting the revision of existing legislation, the tax burden, the environmental licensing process, and credit lines, leading to a low use of this market. Finally, it is concluded that there has been a significant advance in public policies, but the current market model is not yet sufficiently favorable to further development of DG. Still, using the presented strategies can mitigate barriers and evolve, fostering the high potential for expansion, enabling a more adequate and reliable environment, and a sustainable development in the commercial model in force in Brazil. / A Geração Distribuída (GD) é vista como alternativa para reduzir a dependência de fontes primárias não renováveis e poluentes, descentralizando o parque gerador e agregando confiabilidade à rede elétrica. Assim sendo, diversas políticas públicas para incentivar o uso da GD têm sido implementadas como mecanismos de incentivos. Entretanto, é necessário verificar se o atual ambiente institucional é favorável para a promoção e o desenvolvimento desse mercado no Brasil. Nesse contexto, este trabalho tem por objetivo identificar os elementos facilitadores e inibidores que influenciam no desenvolvimento da GD no País, atuando no sentido de mitigar incertezas do ponto de vista dos investidores. Para isso, são apresentados modelos de estrutura, ambiente regulatório, regras de comercialização, agentes participantes, modalidades, segmentos e tecnologias utilizadas, permitindo-se maior compreensão do modelo mercantil vigente e dos mecanismos utilizados para sua promoção. Por meio dessa pesquisa documental, somada à análise da experiência internacional, além da realização de estudos de caso e entrevistas semiestruturadas, avaliou-se o contexto em que se encontra a GD no Brasil, assim como em outros países, sendo possível identificar fatores que podem contribuir com seu crescimento para, a partir disso, estabelecerem-se estratégias facilitadoras, destacando-se a revisão da legislação existente, da carga tributária, do processo de licenciamento ambiental e de linhas de crédito, ocasionando-se um baixo aproveitamento desse mercado. Por fim, conclui-se que ocorreu um expressivo avanço nas políticas públicas, porém o atual modelo de mercado ainda não é suficientemente favorável a um maior desenvolvimento da GD. Ainda, com a utilização das estratégias apresentadas, pode-se mitigar barreiras e evoluir, fomentando-se o alto potencial de expansão, viabilizando-se um ambiente mais adequado e confiável, além de um desenvolvimento sustentável no modelo mercantil vigente no Brasil.
192

Subsídios para o planejamento da utilização do potencial de excedentes de energia elétrica de cogeração no setor sucroalcooleiro / Suggestions for foster surplus electricity production from cogeneration in the sugarcane sector

Cavalcante, José Aparecido 19 August 2018 (has links)
Orientador: Arnaldo Cesar da Silva Walter, Isaias de Carvalho Macedo / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T16:31:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cavalcante_JoseAparecido_M.pdf: 6372683 bytes, checksum: b1a207d1d57ed9915853e751ccf18ea3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho é trazer subsídios para o planejamento da integração de sistemas de cogeração, com geração de excedentes de energia elétrica, aos sistemas de suprimento de energia, exemplificando com um estudo de caso na área de concessão da CPFL, no estado de São Paulo. Após analisar a evolução da cogeração no âmbito da CPFL desde 1980 e as tendências mais recentes, e revistos alguns estudos sobre o planejamento da integração de sistemas de cogeração, foram estimados os potenciais "práticos" para 2015, considerado os aumentos de produção no setor de cana de açúcar. Na avaliação desses potenciais foram consideradas restrições de tecnologia, de oferta de matéria prima, e restrições comerciais. A distribuição espacial das unidades industriais do setor foi considerada, e foram incluídas as unidades em fase de instalação. A legislação atual (em rápida mudança) sobre o acesso de cogeradores ao Sistema de Distribuição e Transmissão das Concessionárias foi revista, e um estudo de caso completo baseado em uma solicitação de conexão é apresentado como exemplo. Tendo como exemplo as regiões Noroeste e Nordeste do estado de São Paulo, os mapas de oferta potencial foram sobrepostos aos mapas de demanda regional futura estimada, além de terem sido consideradas as restrições existentes dos sistemas de distribuição e de transmissão. Os resultados desta dissertação são subsídios para o planejamento da expansão da cogeração nos próximos anos. Ao fim, são apresentadas sugestões para futuros estudos no tema / Abstract: The objective was to collect and process information to help in the planning of integration of co-generated surplus electricity from distributed systems with the SIN, with focus in the state of São Paulo, exemplifying with the area of concession of CPFL. After analyzing co-generated energy utilization by CPFL since 1980 and the recent trends, and having considered the last studies on the integration, "practical" potentials were estimated (2015 horizon) for the sector of sugar cane processing. The estimates considered the expected growth for each sector in the period, and restrictions due to technology availability, as well as economic and commercial constraints. The sugar cane sector presents the largest potential than the others, and its space distribution was established including the units in the implementation phase. The legislation and regulations for connection with the distribution systems (changing very rapidly in the last years) are summarized, and a complete Case Study was prepared (analysis of a specific connection required by a potential supplier) as an example, to indicate the main parameters for decision. The information for the expansion planning for the next years is provided (with the sugar cane potential suppliers) adding the mapping of the potential supply from each unit to the maps with estimates of the regional future demand and local projected restrictions (distribution and transmission). Suggestions are presented for advancing the present studies / Mestrado / Mestre em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos
193

Análise técnico-econômica do impacto da penetração da geração distribuída em redes de distribuição

Machado, Ivan de Souza 03 July 2017 (has links)
Submitted by Patrícia Cerveira (pcerveira1@gmail.com) on 2017-06-07T20:58:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 IVAN MACHADO_Dissertação.pdf: 4344558 bytes, checksum: 054d635d2c21036a970f1a9ead057382 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Biblioteca da Escola de Engenharia (bee@ndc.uff.br) on 2017-07-03T13:10:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 IVAN MACHADO_Dissertação.pdf: 4344558 bytes, checksum: 054d635d2c21036a970f1a9ead057382 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-03T13:10:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 IVAN MACHADO_Dissertação.pdf: 4344558 bytes, checksum: 054d635d2c21036a970f1a9ead057382 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Atualmente diversos países tem posto em prática políticas para promover a Geração Distribuída (GD). No Brasil, a Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) publicou a Resolução 482/2012 a fim de estabelecer as condições gerais de acesso da geração distribuída à rede e o mecanismo de compensação para a energia gerada pelo consumidor. Entre as tecnologias de GD, a solar fotovoltaica desempenha um papel importante devido aos seus avanços, em conjunto com a redução dos custos de capital e subsídios. A incerteza da inserção de unidades de GD renováveis pode causar impactos no sistema de distribuição de energia e vários estudos têm sido realizados para analisar os problemas relacionados a penetração da GD fotovoltaica. No entanto, em geral, esses estudos consideram cenários de penetração gerados aleatoriamente ou com base em aspectos técnicos, independentemente das características econômicas dos clientes. Portanto, esse trabalho propõe uma metodologia para avaliar o impacto da GD no sistema de distribuição considerando cenários de adoção com base nos clientes. O estudo de um alimentador de distribuição real foi desenvolvido a partir de dados do Projeto “Cidade Inteligente Búzios”. A análise e a simulação desse sistema de distribuição foram realizadas através do software Open Distribution System Simulator (OpenDSS). / Nowadays, several countries are applying energy policies to promote Distributed Generation (DG). In Brazil, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) published the Normative Resolution 482/2012 in order to establish the general conditions for access of distributed generation for the grid and compensation mechanisms for the energy generated by the consumer. Among DG technologies, solar photovoltaic plays a major role due to advances in photovoltaic technology, combined with decreasing capital costs and subsidies. The uncertainty renewable DG integration may cause impact on distribution power system and several studies have been carried out to analyze grid integration issues associated with photovoltaic DG penetration. However, in general, these studies consider penetration scenarios randomly generated or based on technical aspects, regardless economic characteristics of customers. Therefore, this paper proposes a methodology to assess the impact of DG on distribution system considering customer adoption scenarios. The study of a real distribution feeder was developed from “Smart City Búzios” project database. The analysis and the distribution system simulation were performed with the Open Distribution System Simulator Software (OpenDSS).
194

Solar Variability Assessment and Grid Integration : Methodology Development and Case Studies

Lingfors, David January 2015 (has links)
During the 21st century there has been a tremendous increase in grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) capacity globally, due to falling prices and introduction of economic incentives. PV systems are in most cases small-scale, installed on residential dwellings, which means that the power production is widely distributed and close to the end-user of electricity. In this licentiate thesis the distributed PV in the built environment is studied. A methodology for assessing short-term (sub-minute) solar variability was developed, which in the continuation of this PhD project could be used to study the aggregated impact on the local distribution grid from dispersed PV systems. In order to identify potential locations for PV systems in a future scenario, methodology was developed to assess the rooftop topography on both local level using LiDAR data and nationally through building statistics. Impacts on the distribution grid were investigated through a case study on a rural municipality in Sweden. It was found that the hosting capacity, i.e. the amount of PV power generation that can be integrated in the grid without exceeding certain power quality measures, is high, at least 30%. However, the hosting capacity on transmission level needs further investigation. As a first step a methodology was developed in order to model scenarios for hourly solar power generation, aggregated over wide areas, here applied to the whole Swedish power system. The model showed high correlation compared to PV power production reported to the Swedish transmission system operator (TSO). Furthermore, it was used to model scenarios of high PV penetration in Sweden, which give some indications on the impact on the power system, in terms of higher frequency of extreme ramps.
195

Design and control of a multicell interleaved converter for a hybrid photovoltaic-wind generation system

Da Silva, Joao Lucas 14 July 2017 (has links) (PDF)
The solution for the generating energy derived from non-polluting sources configures a worldwide problem, which is undetermined, complex, and gradual; and certainly, passes through the diversification of the energetic matrix. Diversification means not only having different sources converted into useful energy, like the electricity, but also decentralizing the energy generation in order to fit with higher adequacy the demand, which is decentralized too. Distributed Generation proposes this sort of development but in order to increase its penetration several technical barriers must be overpassed. One of them is related to the conversion systems, which must be more flexible, modular, efficient and compatible with the different energy sources, since they are very specific for a certain area. The present study drives its efforts towards this direction, i.e. having a system with several inputs for combining different renewable energy sources into a single and efficient power converter for the grid connection. It focuses on the design and control of an 11.7 kW hybrid renewable generation system, which contains two parallel circuits of photovoltaic panels and a wind turbine. A multicell converter divided in two stages accomplishes the convertion: Generation Side Converter (GSC) and Mains Side Converter (MSC). Two boost converters responsible for the photovoltaic generation and a rectifier and a third boost, for the wind constitue the GSC. It allows the conversion to the fixed output DC voltage, controlling individually and performing the maximum power point tracking in each input. On the other side, the single-phase 4- cell MSC accomplishes the connection to the grid through an LCL filter. This filter uses an Intercell Transformer (ICT) in the first inductor for reducing the individual ripple generated by the swicthing. The MSC controls the DC-link voltage and, by doing that, it allows the power flow from the generation elements to the network.
196

Solar Variability Assessment in the Built Environment : Model Development and Application to Grid Integration / Variationer i Solelgenerering i den Byggda Miljön : Modellutveckling och Integration i Elnätet

Lingfors, David January 2017 (has links)
During the 21st century there has been a rapid increase in grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) capacity globally, due to falling system component prices and introduction of various economic incentives. To a large extent, PV systems are installed on buildings, which means they are widely distributed and located close to the power consumer, in contrast to conventional power plants. The intermittency of solar irradiance poses challenges to the integration of PV, which may be mitigated if properly assessing the solar resource. In this thesis, methods have been developed for solar variability and resource assessment in the built environment on both national and local level, and have been applied to grid integration studies. On national level, a method based on building statistics was developed that reproduces the hourly PV power generation in Sweden with high accuracy; correlation between simulated and real power generation for 2012 and 2013 were 0.97 and 0.99, respectively. The model was applied in scenarios of high penetration of intermittent renewable energy (IRE) in the Nordic synchronous power system, in combination with similar models for wind, wave and tidal power. A mix of the IRE resources was sought to minimise the variability in net load (i.e., load minus IRE, nuclear and thermal power). The study showed that a fully renewable Nordic power system is possible if hydropower operation is properly planned for. However, the contribution from PV power would only be 2-3% of the total power demand, due to strong diurnal and seasonal variability. On local level, a model-driven solar resource assessment method was developed based on low-resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. It was shown to improve the representation of buildings, i.e., roof shape, tilt and azimuth, over raster-based methods, i.e., digital surface models (DSM), which use the same LiDAR data. Furthermore, the new method can provide time-resolved data in contrast to traditional solar maps, and can thus be used as a powerful tool when studying the integration of high penetrations of PV in the distribution grid. In conclusion, the developed methods fill important gaps in our ability to plan for a fully renewable power system.
197

Control of distributed generation and storage : operation and planning perspectives

Alnaser, Sahban Wa'el Saeed January 2015 (has links)
Transition towards low-carbon energy systems requires an increase in the volume of renewable Distributed Generation (DG), particularly wind and photovoltaic, connected to distribution networks. To facilitate the connection of renewable DG without the need for expensive and time-consuming network reinforcements, distribution networks should move from passive to active methods of operation, whereby technical network constraints are actively managed in real time. This requires the deployment of control solutions that manage network constraints and, crucially, ensure adequate levels of energy curtailment from DG plants by using other controllable elements to solve network issues rather than resorting to generation curtailment only. This thesis proposes a deterministic distribution Network Management System (NMS) to facilitate the connections of renewable DG plants (specifically wind) by actively managing network voltages and congestion in real time through the optimal control of on-load tap changers (OLTCs), DG power factor and, then, generation curtailment as a last resort. The set points for the controllable elements are found using an AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF). The proposed NMS considers the realistic modelling of control by adopting one-minute resolution time-series data. To decrease the volumes of control actions from DG plants and OLTCs, the proposed approach departs from multi-second control cycles to multi-minute control cycles. To achieve this, the decision-making algorithm is further improved into a risk-based one to handle the uncertainties in wind power throughout the multi-minute control cycles. The performance of the deterministic and the risk-based NMS are compared using a 33 kV UK distribution network for different control cycles. The results show that the risk-based approach can effectively manage network constraints better than the deterministic approach, particularly for multi-minute control cycles, reducing also the number of control actions but at the expense of higher levels of curtailment. This thesis also proposes energy storage sizing framework to find the minimum power rating and energy capacity of multiple storage facilities to reduce curtailment from DG plants. A two-stage iterative process is adopted in this framework. The first stage uses a multi-period AC OPF across the studied horizon to obtain initial storage sizes considering hourly wind and load profiles. The second stage adopts a high granularity minute-by-minute control driven by a mono-period bi-level AC OPF to tune the first-stage storage sizes according to the actual curtailment. The application of the proposed planning framework to a 33 kV UK distribution network demonstrates the importance of embedding real-time control aspects into the planning framework so as to accurately size storage facilities. By using reactive power capabilities of storage facilities it is possible to reduce storage sizes. The combined active management of OLTCs and power factor of DG plants resulted in the most significant benefits in terms of the required storage sizes.
198

Equivalent dynamic model of distribution network with distributed generation

Mat Zali, Samila Binti January 2012 (has links)
Today’s power systems are based on a centralised system and distribution networks that are considered as passive terminations of transmission networks. The high penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) at the distribution network level has created many challenges for this structure. New tools and simulation approaches are required to address the subject and to quantify the dynamic characteristics of the system. A distribution network or part of it with DG, Active Distribution Network Cell (ADNC), can no longer be considered as passive. An equivalent dynamic model of ADNC is therefore extremely important, as it enables power system operators to quickly estimate the impact of disturbances on the power system’s dynamic behaviour. A dynamic equivalent model works by reducing both the complexity of the distribution network and the computation time required to run a full dynamic simulation. It offers a simple and low-order representation of the system without compromising distribution network dynamic characteristics and behaviour as seen by the external grid. This research aims to develop a dynamic equivalent model for ADNC. It focuses on the development of an equivalent model by exploiting system identification theory, i.e. the grey-box approach. The first part of the thesis gives a comprehensive overview and background of the dynamic equivalent techniques for power systems. The research was inspired by previous work on system identification theory. It further demonstrates the theoretical concept of system identification, system load modelling and the modelling of major types of DG. An equivalent model is developed, guided by the assumed structure of the system. The problem of equivalent model development is then formulated under a system identification framework, and the parameter estimation methodology is proposed. The validation results of the effectiveness and accuracy of the developed model are presented. This includes the estimation of the parameter model using a clustering algorithm to improve the computational performance and the analysis of transformer impedance effects on the ADNC responses. The evaluation of probability density function, eigenvalue analysis and parameter sensitivity analysis for the model parameters are also presented. Typical model parameters for different network topologies and configurations are identified. Finally, the developed equivalent model is used for a large power system application. The accuracy and robustness of the developed equivalent model are demonstrated under small and large disturbance studies for various types of fault and different fault locations.
199

Design considerations of South African residential distribution systems containing embedded generation

Kruger, Gustav Reinhold January 2017 (has links)
The electricity generation composition in the South African national grid has changed in recent years from mostly thermal generation to a combination of thermal generation plants and a variety of plants owned and operated by Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers (REIPPs). The need arises to determine whether the existing planning and design guidelines of distribution networks in South Africa are sufficient in terms of equipment specifications and general sizing and rating principles, used during the network planning process, under increasing penetration levels of embedded generation. The correlation between increases in embedded generation penetration levels and voltage variation, unbalance and harmonic emissions are determined by simulating various operating scenarios of varying load and short circuit level for penetration levels of 10%, 25% and 40%. The existing distribution grid planning standard NRS 097 allows for a 25% penetration level where several consumers share one feeder or distribution transformer. Some of the limits contained in the South African power quality standards NRS 048 and the distribution grid planning guidelines NRS 097 are exceeded when penetration levels of grid connected Photovoltaic (PV) generation exceeds certain levels. - Switching embedded generation in or out of service does not cause voltage variations that exceed the planning limit of 3% at the shared feeder. - Voltage unbalance due to embedded generation connected to the same phase does not cause the compatibility limit of 3% to be exceeded. - Current unbalance should be monitored as it is very likely that equipment ratings may be exceeded when the integration of embedded generation is not coordinated. - Voltage harmonic limits of the odd harmonic which are multiples of 3 are exceeded. - Current harmonic planning limits of several harmonics are exceeded for penetration levels of 25%. The criteria and limits contained in the standards and guidelines relating to current unbalance and harmonic currents should be reviewed to ensure that future grids with high penetration levels of embedded generation can withstand the inherent power quality challenges without having an adverse effect on distribution equipment. Distribution transformers can age faster when they are subjected to harmonic currents and voltages exceeding their design parameters [12]. The distribution transformer isolates the Medium Voltage (MV) distribution grid from the 400 V residential grid. The voltage harmonics and voltage unbalance on the Low Voltage (LV) grid therefore do not permeate to the MV grid. Proposed future work includes translating the qualitative suggestions made in this dissertation into quantitative terms that can be included in revisions of the distribution equipment standards and grid planning guidelines. / Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2017. / Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering / MEng / Unrestricted
200

Electricity Distribution Network Planning Considering Distributed Generation

Huang, Yalin January 2014 (has links)
One of EU’s actions against climate change is to meet 20% of our energy needs from renewable resources. Given that the renewable resources are becoming more economical to extract electricity from, this will result in that more and more distributed generation (DG) will be connected to power distribution. The increasing share of DG in the electricity networks implies both increased costs and benefits for distribution system operators (DSOs), customers and DG producers. How the costs and benefits will be allocated among the actors will depend on the established regulation. Distribution networks are traditionally not designed to accommodate generation. Hence, increasing DG penetration is causing profound changes for DSOs in planning, operation and maintenance of distribution networks. Due to the unbundling between DSOs and electricity production, DSOs can not determine either the location or the size of DG. This new power distribution environment brings new challenges for the DSOs and the electric power system regulator. The DSOs are obliged to enable connection of DG meanwhile fulfilling requirements on power quality and adequate reliability. Moreover, regulatory implications can make potential DG less attractive. Therefore regulation should be able to send out incentives for the DSOs to efficiently plan the network to accommodate the increasing levels of DG. To analyze the effects of regulatory polices on network investments, risk analysis methods for integrating the DG considering uncertainties are therefore needed. In this work, regulation impact on network planning methods and network tariff designs in unbundled electricity network is firstly analyzed in order to formulate a realistic long-term network planning model considering DG. Photovoltaic (PV) power and wind power plants are used to demonstrate DG. Secondly, this work develops a deterministic model for low-voltage (LV) networks mainly considering PV connections which is based on the worst-case scenario. Dimension the network using worst-case scenario is the convention in the long-term electricity distribution network planning for the reliability and security reason. This model is then further developed into a probabilistic model in order to consider the uncertainties from DG production and load. Therefore more realistic operation conditions are considered and probabilistic constrains on voltage variation can be applied. Thirdly, this work develops a distribution medium-voltage (MV) network planning model considering wind power plant connections. The model obtains the optimal network expansion and reinforcement plan of the target network considering the uncertainties from DG production and load. The model is flexible to modify the constraints. The technical constraints are respected in any scenario and violated in few scenarios are implemented into the model separately. In LV networks only PV connections are demonstrated and in MV networks only wind power connections are demonstrated. The planning model for LV networks is proposed as a practical guideline for PV connections. It has been shown that it is simple to be implemented and flexible to adjust the planning constraints. The proposed planning model for MV networks takes reinforcement on existing lines, new connection lines to DG, alternatives for conductor sizes and substation upgrade into account, and considers non-linear power flow constraints as an iterative linear optimization process. The planning model applies conservative limits and probabilistic limits for increasing utilization of the network, and the different results are compared in case studies. The model’s efficiency, flexibility and accuracy in long-term distribution network planning problems are shown in the case studies. / <p>QC 20140217</p> / Elforsk Risknanlys II

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