Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / Savings is essential for boosting economic growth. Low savings in a country will have negative consequences for both investment and economic growth. South Africa has continued to expe rience declining saving rates and in recent years, accompanied by declining economic growth. The study evaluated savings in South Africa by decomposing it into household saving, cor porate saving and public saving. The focus was to investigate the determinants of household savings, corporate and public savings. In addition to examining the determinants of savings, the research has also analysed the saving-investment relationship for South Africa. The study used a Bayesian vector auto regressive model to investigate the determinants of household sav ing from 1980Q1 to 2017Q4. The results of the investigation on household saving showed that GDP, inflation rate, and financial deepening determine household saving in South Africa. The Bayesian VAR was also used to identify the determinant of budget deficit between 1980Q1 to 2017Q and found Real GDP, inflation rate, total government debt, investment by general government and the inflation rate to be determinants. The Blundel-Bond Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) was used to investigate the determinants of corporate saving in form of cash holding for 80 non-financial firms listed on the JSE between 2007 and 2017. The results showed leverage, cash flow, debt maturity and previous amounts of cash holding to have significant effect on cash holding in SA. Lastly, the study examined the saving-investment nexus for South Africa using yearly data from 1980 to 2016. Using the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model, (ECM), the study found a cointegrating relationship between domestic saving and domestic investment. It further found a positive relationship between domestic saving and domestic investment in both the short and long run. Causality analysis showed a unidirectional causality from domestic saving to domestic investment.

This article applies the total investment model and 12-year (2008-2019) panel data of 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe to examine the crowding-in or crowding- out effect of FDI on domestic investment. Moreover, in the empirical research, this article also tests the specific impact of the formation of FDI domestic capital in different economies and different periods in Central and Eastern Europe. Our research results show that FDI has no obvious crowding-in or crowding-out effect on the domestic investment of the total sample in the long term. In addition, FDI has a long-term crowding-out impact on domestic investment in underdeveloped economies and advanced economies in 11 countries. However, in the short term (2008-2012), FDI has a substantial and apparent crowding-in effect on domestic investment in underdeveloped economies. Furthermore, in the latter stage of the research period (2013-2019), FDI has no obvious crowding-in or crowding-out effect on domestic investment in the two different economies. This article also deeply analyzes the causes of the crowding-in or crowding-out effect of FDI and puts forward reasonable policy recommendations. Keywords: FDI, Crowding in, Domestic investment, underdeveloped economies.

This study analysed the short- and long-run interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa from 1970 to 2014. The study focussed on the portfolio theory, the life cycle of investment and the accelerator model of investment, which all found that investment plays an important part in the economic growth and development prospects of a country, thus a healthy investment environment needs to be present in order to attract investment inflows into the country. The conceptualisation of exchange rates focussed on the definitions and types of exchange rates that are in existence, as well as the theories of exchange rate determination which included the purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity, the portfolio balance approach and the Balassa-Samuelson model. These theories are all different but are essential for this study as assumptions made by these theories are relevant to the explanations of exchange rates. The Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), a multivariate Johansen co-integration approach and Granger causality test were conducted to analyse the interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments. The short-run analysis found that there was a short-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. However, this short-run interaction were found to be small, thus, not significant enough to cause disruptions to the exchange rate and to the inflow of investments into the country. The long-run analysis found that a there was a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. This long-run relationship was also found to be negative. This study concluded that investments have a negative, long-run effect on the exchange rate, suggesting that a fall in the investments would cause an increase in the exchange rate in the long-run.

This study analysed the short- and long-run interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa from 1970 to 2014. The study focussed on the portfolio theory, the life cycle of investment and the accelerator model of investment, which all found that investment plays an important part in the economic growth and development prospects of a country, thus a healthy investment environment needs to be present in order to attract investment inflows into the country. The conceptualisation of exchange rates focussed on the definitions and types of exchange rates that are in existence, as well as the theories of exchange rate determination which included the purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity, the portfolio balance approach and the Balassa-Samuelson model. These theories are all different but are essential for this study as assumptions made by these theories are relevant to the explanations of exchange rates. The Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), a multivariate Johansen co-integration approach and Granger causality test were conducted to analyse the interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments. The short-run analysis found that there was a short-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. However, this short-run interaction were found to be small, thus, not significant enough to cause disruptions to the exchange rate and to the inflow of investments into the country. The long-run analysis found that a there was a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. This long-run relationship was also found to be negative. This study concluded that investments have a negative, long-run effect on the exchange rate, suggesting that a fall in the investments would cause an increase in the exchange rate in the long-run.

Magister Artium - MA / The potential of tourism to contribute to economic growth in terms of increasing foreign exchange, creating employment opportunities, generation of government revenues, creating incomes, contribution to poverty reduction, acting as a catalyst of economic development and stimulation of investments have been advanced as the reasons for government support for tourism. It is against this background that countries in Africa such as Rwanda have implemented economic reforms such as privatisation and liberalisation in order to improve the investment climate. The main purpose of this study was to provide a detailed literature account of the tourism investment environment in developing countries, to examine opportunities, constraints and challenges of the hotel investors in Kigali, examine the role of government in providing a conducive investment climate for hotel investors in Kigali and to investigate the impact of the hotel sector on tourism development in Kigali, Rwanda. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods were used to collect the data. Data were collected through questionnaires to hotel investors and interviews to government policy makers. Findings suggest that tourism can contribute to economic development of developing countries through its benefits. Much as investing in tourism has positive developmental aspects to developing countries, tourism investment environment in developing countries has been constrained by various reasons such as inadequate financial institutions, constant political instabilities, lack of adequate tourism infrastructure, lack of human resource, small market size, poor tourism planning to mention but a few. Various investment opportunities are available in Rwanda. Progress in economic performance, political stability, recognition of tourism as an engine of Rwanda's economic growth, the geographical location (in the centre) and the fact that tourism is still a virgin industry present important opportunities for potential investors in Rwanda's hotel sector. Despite the existence of investment opportunities, investors in Rwanda's hotel sector have faced problems such as the continued poor image of the country, lack of tourism infrastructure, the nature of the position of the country (land locked) lack of skilled personnel and lack of proper tourism information. The challenge for Rwanda is therefore to improve her image abroad that was formerly tarnished by the 1994 war and . genocide. Improvement in infrastructure, human resource and proper methods of tourism information can also lead to improved investments in the tourism sector. Findings have further suggested that hotels in Kigali have indeed contributed to tourism development. Effects of the hotel sector have been noticed in urban tourism development, development of the tourism infrastructure in Kigali, creation of employment opportunities for the communities, generation of government revenues and contribution to poverty alleviation.

Dans le présent travail de recherche, nous proposons, à travers quelques essais empiriques, un nouveau regard sur les enjeux économiques de la migration internationale et le développement des pays d’origine. Tout d’abord, nous commençons par étudier le lien entre la migration internationale et le commerce extérieur en nous appuyant sur des données bilatérales d’un groupe de 27 pays, choisis selon des critères bien particuliers. Les résultats mettent en exergue un lien de complémentarité entre le commerce et la migration. Par la suite, nous étudions l’impact de la migration à travers d’autres canaux de transmissions tels que le capital humain et l’investissement. Il s’agit de retracer l’impact des transferts de fonds des migrants sur la croissance économique des pays d’origine de court et long terme. L’impact est ambigu dans l’espace et le temps. Enfin nous avons choisi de mener une étude complémentaire, à caractère micro-économique, et qui se focalise sur la migration de retour au pays du Maghreb et en particulier en Tunisie. Elle explique comment le migrant de retour contribue au développement de son pays d’origine à travers le canal investissement. Les résultats attestent un biais régional en défaveur de la région du Sud tunisien. / The present research proposes an attempt at explicitly analyzing the interrelationship between the economic effects of international migration and development in origin countries. By relying on bilateral data of a group of 27 countries selected according to very specific criteria, we start by studying the link between international migration and foreign trade, and show a complementary relationship between trade and migration. Then, we investigate the impact of migration through other transmission channels, such as human capital and investment, in order to trace the impact of migrants' remittances on economic growth of origin countries in the medium and long term. The impact is found ambiguous in space and time. Finally, we perform an additional study, at micro-economic level, which focuses on return migration to the Maghreb countries, with a particular attention to Tunisia. It aims at explaining how return migrants might contribute to the development of origin countries through the investment channel. The results show a regional bias to the detriment of the region of southern of Tunisia.

This thesis consists of four essays, covering four different topics. The first essay investigates the relationship between inter-firm labor mobility and regional productivity growth. Previous studies have shown that density is positively correlated with growth. I claim that it is not density in itself, but rather the attributes associated with it that drives economic growth. One such attribute is the increased possibility for labor mobility and knowledge diffusion that follows when firms and individuals locate in close proximity to each other. This hypothesis is tested using density as an instrument for labor mobility. The result shows that labor mobility increases regional growth rates. The second essay examines the relationship between agglomeration economies and relative wage costs in influencing location of multinational corporations. An inflow of firms to certain regions and industries is likely to increase demand for labor. If mobility of labor is low increased costs can be expected to deter additional inflows of firms, albeit agglomeration economies may compensate for higher wages. The empirical analysis finds that FDI has become increasingly sensitive to differences in wage costs across industrialized countries, but also that agglomeration economies related to knowledge externalities positively influences higher costs. The third essay looks at the impact of FDI on home country investments. Previous research has been inconclusive as regards the effects on domestic investments. In this article, we show that this inconclusiveness can be explained at a disaggregated level as a function of the way industries are organized. We argue that a complementary relationship can be expected to prevail in vertically integrated industries, whereas a substitutionary relationship can be expected in horizontally organized production. The empirical analysis confirms a significant difference between the two categories of industry as regards the impact of outward FDI on domestic investment. The fourth, and final, essay of this thesis analyses how increased R&D expenditures and market size influence the distribution of comparative advantage. Previous studies report ambiguous results and also refer to periods when markets were much more segmented and production factors less mobile. The empirical analysis comprises 19 OECD-countries and spans the period 1981 to 1999. It is shown how an increase in R&D-expenditures by one percentage point implies a three-percentage point increase in high-technology exports, whereas market size fails to attain significance. In addition, institutional factors influence the dynamics of comparative advantage.

The financial and exchange rate crisis observed in Argentine at the end of 2001 showed the importance of understanding the factors that explain the evolution of the balance of payments and, in particular, of the current account. The objective of this work is to show recent developments in the theory of the current account and its application to the Argentine case. In the first place, short and long term correlations between national saving and domestic investment is considered through a model of a mechanism of correction of errors. Later, the paper analyzes the main shocks that affect to the current account in agreement with different theories. Finally, the paper shows the intertemporary approach of the current account. In this case, the paper considers a standard version of this approach and a model that makes flexible some of its main basic assumptions. / La crisis financiera y cambiaria que tuvo lugar en la Argentina hacia fines del año 2001 puso de relieve la importancia de entender los factores que explican la evolución de la balanza de pagos y, en particular, de la cuenta corriente. El objetivo de este trabajo es mostrar algunos de los desarrollos relativamente recientes en la teoría de la cuenta corriente y su aplicación al caso argentino. En primer lugar, se estima la correlación de corto y de largo plazo entre las tasas de ahorro nacional y de inversión doméstica, a través de un modelo planteado en la forma de un mecanismo de corrección de errores. Posteriormente, se analizan los principales shocks que podrían afectar a la cuenta corriente, de acuerdo con diferentes teorías. Por último, se describe la propuesta intertemporal de la cuenta corriente. Para ello, se expone, en primer lugar, la versión estándar de esta propuesta y, posteriormente, un modelo que flexibiliza algunos de sus principales supuestos básicos.

This study examines the indirect linkages between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in South Africa utilising 36 years’ (1980-2016) time series data obtained from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). South Africa’s economy has been experiencing unsteadiness in recent years. Despite the government’s execution of different strategic initiatives to draw in FDI into South Africa, the country’s FDI remains lower than that of other emerging economies. Domestic investment by government, public corporations and the private sector is also relatively unsteady. Slow economic growth has put tremendous weight on the government to borrow externally for developmental purposes. This study tests two models – model I and model II. In model I, real GDP per capita (RGDP) is the dependent variable and foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (DI), real exchange rate (EXR) and foreign debt (FD) are modelled as explanatory variables while in model II, FDI is the dependent variable and RGDP, DI, EXR and FD are modelled as explanatory variables. Domestic investment is sub-divided into credit to the domestic private sector (CPS), public investment (PI) by public corporations and government investment expenditure (GOVIN). The analysis of the relationship was carried out using econometric methods such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to identify the order of integration of the variables. The bounds cointegration test was applied to establish the long-term association among variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was utilised to test the long-run and short-run equilibrium conditions. Diagnostic tests were employed to check the model adequacy and the Granger causality tests were utilised to establish the causal relationships among variables. The discoveries from the ADF and PP tests uncovered that all the variables are non-stationary at level but became stationary at first differences. The bounds tests suggest that there is a long-run relationship and cointegration between variables. Following the presence of cointegration, the outcomes from ARDL model uncovered that FDI, CPS and GOVIN have a positive relationship with RGDP in the long run (crowding-in effect), while, a negative relationship occurs between PI, FD, EXR and RGDP in the long run (crowding-out effect) in model I. In model II, the outcomes revealed that RGDP, CPS, and PI have a positive relationship with FDI in the long run (crowding-in effect). Then again, the outcomes presented a negative connection between GOVIN, FD and v © Pamba, D, University of South Africa 2020 EXR to FDI in the long run (crowding-out effect). The short-run estimate of the coefficient of the error correction term (ECM) in model I and model II are statistically significant and negative. The negative indication of the error correction term shows a backward movement towards long-run equilibrium from short-run disequilibrium. In model I, the short-run coefficient results uncovered that FDI, lagged PI and lagged EXR are positively linked with RGDP (crowding-in effect). Then again, lagged CPS and lagged GOVIN are inversely related to RGDP (crowding-out effect). In model II, the short-run coefficient of FDI is certainly related to GOVIN (crowding-in effect). FDI, on the other hand, indicated a negative relationship with PI in the short run (crowding-out effect). The Granger causality tests for the variables uncovered a unidirectional causal connection running from RGDP to FDI and from FDI to RGDP in both models. The outcomes obtained for RGDP and FDI models pass all the diagnostic tests on serial correlation, normality and heteroscedasticity. The test for adequacy performed on the residuals demonstrates that they are homoscedastic and have no serial correlation, signifying that the model is acceptable. The Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) tests show that the extracted models are structurally steady and remain within the 5 percent level of critical bounds. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)