We use dynamic hedging to replicate the short put positions of common stocks and thelong put positions of equity index. The strategy is developed based on the fact that the volatility of average constituent stocks is greater than that of the index, and the aggregate movement of the constituent stocks becomes the movement of the index. Therefore, we expect the long-short volatility strategy to deliver stable returns. In this study, we first employ Monte Carlo simulation methods to create paths for the underlying securities and the corresponding index. Then, we use Black-Scholes delta-neutral dynamic hedging strategy to create synthetic options for the long-short put positions.Specifically, we conduct the dynamic replication strategy to form long put option of TSEC Taiwan 50 equity index and short options of its constituent stocks. Finally, we pick the TSECTaiwan Mid-Cap 100 Index and replicate the long-short volatility strategy again. This time the target constituents screening criteria are high beta and high historical volatility. The empirical studies show that: (1) The correlation coefficients between stock pairs are reciprocally related to the standard deviations of strategy returns. (2) The main source of losses is performance deviation of the price of small-sized stocks and the index. (3) The return of the strategy for portfolios excluding small cap stocks will be improved. (4) The loss will decline if we apply short strip strategy on those stocks which prices perform worse than the index. (5) The higher the volatility of the stocks we select, the greater the dynamic hedging premium we can get. (6) If we pick the high beta stocks to avoid the trend of stock prices diverging from the index, then the strategy yields higher returns.

O objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver uma estratégia de hedge dinâmico de um swap FtD com n nomes, para n maior ou igual a dois. A estratégia deve eliminar os riscos de mercado e de default, incluindo o risco de correlação. Neste sentido, a escolha do instrumento de hedge é fundamental. A rolagem contínua de CDS é um instrumento de hedge que além de proteger contra os riscos envolvidos no contrato em questão, a estratégia gera recurso necessário e suficiente para que no instante do primeiro default, o vendedor do swap FtD cumpra com as obrigações dos contratos e não tenha perdas com os (n-1) CDSs correspondentes aos nomes que sobreviveram e foram utilizados no hedge. / The objetive of this work is to develop a dynamic hedging of first-to-default swap with n underlying names. The strategy should eliminate market risk and default risk, including correlation risk. In this sense, the hedge instrument choice is essencial. The continuous resettling strategy os CDS is a hedge instrument against risks in the contract and moreover it will generate necessary and sufficient income to hedger fulfill all contracts obligations and doesn\'t have losses with the (n-1) CDSs associates with the names that have survival and were used in the hedging.

O objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver uma estratégia de hedge dinâmico de um swap FtD com n nomes, para n maior ou igual a dois. A estratégia deve eliminar os riscos de mercado e de default, incluindo o risco de correlação. Neste sentido, a escolha do instrumento de hedge é fundamental. A rolagem contínua de CDS é um instrumento de hedge que além de proteger contra os riscos envolvidos no contrato em questão, a estratégia gera recurso necessário e suficiente para que no instante do primeiro default, o vendedor do swap FtD cumpra com as obrigações dos contratos e não tenha perdas com os (n-1) CDSs correspondentes aos nomes que sobreviveram e foram utilizados no hedge. / The objetive of this work is to develop a dynamic hedging of first-to-default swap with n underlying names. The strategy should eliminate market risk and default risk, including correlation risk. In this sense, the hedge instrument choice is essencial. The continuous resettling strategy os CDS is a hedge instrument against risks in the contract and moreover it will generate necessary and sufficient income to hedger fulfill all contracts obligations and doesn\'t have losses with the (n-1) CDSs associates with the names that have survival and were used in the hedging.

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There is a lack of research in the area of hedging future contracts, especially in illiquid or very volatile market conditions. It is important to understand the volatility of the oil and currency markets because reduced fluctuations in these markets could lead to better hedging performance. This study compared different hedging methods by using a hedging error metric, supplementing the Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming (RHCSP) method by utilizing the London Interbank Offered Rate with the Levy process. The RHCSP hedging method was investigated to determine if improved hedging error was accomplished compared to the Black-Scholes, Leland, and Whalley and Wilmott methods when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. A modified RHCSP method was also investigated to determine if this method could significantly reduce hedging error under extreme market illiquidity conditions when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. This quantitative study used chaos theory and emergence for its theoretical foundation. An experimental research method was utilized for this study with a sample size of 506 hedging errors pertaining to historical and simulation data. The historical data were from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2012. The modified RHCSP method was found to significantly reduce hedging error for the oil and currency market futures by the use of a 2-way ANOVA with a t test and post hoc Tukey test. This study promotes positive social change by identifying better risk controls for investment portfolios and illustrating how to benefit from high volatility in markets. Economists, professional investment managers, and independent investors could benefit from the findings of this study.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:58:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 4 2006 - Wagner_Oliveira_ Monteiro_02_10_2008.pdf.jpg: 17677 bytes, checksum: 012a0852290fa51f423a5a8ec7534ea5 (MD5) 2006 - Wagner_Oliveira_ Monteiro_02_10_2008.pdf: 450170 bytes, checksum: ea37b352c4028dd1c20da87d3f3badf2 (MD5) 2006 - Wagner_Oliveira_ Monteiro_02_10_2008.pdf.txt: 55718 bytes, checksum: 579a00e43cb84159205c5d87713ad640 (MD5) license.txt: 4884 bytes, checksum: de2d265ed2868529ac27feb118588da8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-02T00:00:00Z / This dissertation proposes a bivariate markov switching dynamic conditional correlation model for estimating the optimal hedge ratio between spot and futures contracts. It considers the cointegration between series and allows to capture the leverage efect in return equation. The model is applied using daily data of future and spot prices of Bovespa Index and R$/US$ exchange rate. The results in terms of variance reduction and utility show that the bivariate markov switching model outperforms the strategies based ordinary least squares and error correction models.

本篇論文以新光鋼鐵作為企業外匯避險實務之研究對象，從公司之經營策略及財務特性進行分析，並針對公司之長期避險策略與理念進行研究。 深受鋼鐵產業之產業特性影響，公司本業受景氣波動影響程度大。此外，為配合公司轉型，新光鋼鐵財務特性亦出現營運週期增加、存貨占公司資產比例偏高、速動比率偏低的現象，在因為企業轉型而使營運風險漸增的情形下，如何有效穩定公司現金流、降低風險為新光鋼鐵首要任務。新光鋼鐵銷貨成本約有六成以外幣結算，其中又以美元為大宗；對於毛利率偏低的產業而言，美元的變化對公司營運表現顯得格外重要，因此新光鋼鐵以長期匯率變化及市場觀察經驗，研擬出「比例式變動法」之動態避險準則，降低外匯變化對於公司營運之衝擊。本論文除介紹此動態避險準則外，同時亦著重公司長期體悟之避險心境法則。論文中以台灣過去所遭遇較嚴重之金融衝擊事件作為避險績效討論，分別為1997年亞洲金融風暴、2000年網路科技泡沫化、2008次級房貸事件及2013美國QE進場。在此重要事件中，新光鋼鐵因採取積極之避險策略，成功降低公司現金支付美元負債之支出，對企業維持長期競爭優勢具有一定幫助。從數據分析中發現，新光鋼鐵避險策略長期而言仍受匯率走勢之影響，然而在短期及市場極端狀況發生時，避險效果明確。對於多數台灣中小企業而言，避險之財務觀念仍未普遍，新光鋼鐵之避險邏輯及策略著實對於一般企業之風險控管運作，具有啟示效用。 / This study takes Hsin Kuang Steel for example to understand how corporates run foreign exchange hedging strategy. Hsin Kuang Steel operating business is severely affected by economic changes. Besides, as the company transforms the way they do business in recent years, the financial characteristics has changed, such as the increase in business cycle and inventory to asset ratio. In addition, they usually pay in US dollars, so it’s primary mission is to decrease its foreign exchange risk and stabilize cash flows. The company takes advantage of “dynamic hedging strategy” to hedge to minimize the effect of foreign exchange. We use 4 financial events to describe how effective the dynamic hedging strategy works, and also apply the multiple regression to test the the effectiveness of the hedging practice. During Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, Dot-com Bubble in 2000, Financial Crisis in 2008, and US Quantitative Easing in 2013, dynamic hedging strategy plays an important role in decreasing the cash outflow of US dollar debt. From the multiple regression analysis, we find that though Hsin Kuang Steel has high exposure to US dollars, the stock return has nothing to do with US exchange fluctuation both in short-term.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:48:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 71050100641.pdf.jpg: 15085 bytes, checksum: da94bf1ee170193cadfd39532db9d412 (MD5) 71050100641.pdf: 1002739 bytes, checksum: 24f904fbada233718e98bb0431662279 (MD5) 71050100641.pdf.txt: 115624 bytes, checksum: 49213ba733bbc49141b1a9b8047d5bec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-06-11T00:00:00Z / This thesis is divided in two chapters. The first chapter entitled "The Dynamics of the Dynamic Hedging" derives an optimal hedging ratio in a dynamic discrete-time stochastic setting allowing for margin requirements. Then, it empirically analyzes the dynamics of the hedging strategy in terms of wealth volatility by comparing alternative estimation methods. Besides considering margin accounts empirically, we also innovate by varying the out-of-sample hedging horizon for a representative investor from 10 to 127 days and evaluate the impact of the time horizon on the hedging efficiency. The second chapter entitled "The impact of ETS market on the futures prices of electricity or Kyoto 220 volts: Fast and Furious" addresses the economic impact of the carbon allowance market in European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) on the futures market of electricity and gas prices. We also analyze the dynamics relationship among these markets with coal and natural gas futures markets. / O primeiro ensaio desenvolve e implementa um modelo de proteção (hedging) dinâmico considerando as chamadas de margem. O segundo ensaio trata-se de uma revisão teórica e de uma análise empírica do impacto do mercado de crédito de carbono europeu, impulsionado pelo Protocolo de Kyoto, no mercado futuro da eletricidade na Europa.

La théorie classique de la valorisation des produits dérivés se repose sur l'absence de coûts de transaction et une liquidité infinie. Ces hypothèses sont toutefois ne plus véridiques dans le marché réel, en particulier quand la transaction est grande et les actifs non-liquides. Dans ce marché imparfait, on parle du prix de sur-réplication puisque la couverture parfaite est devenue parfois infaisable.La première partie de cette thèse se concentre sur la proposition d’un modèle qui intègre à la fois le coût de transaction et l’impact sur le prix du sous-jacent. Nous commençons par déduire la dynamique de l’actif en temps continu en tant que la limite de la dynamique en temps discret. Sous la contrainte d’une position nulle sur l’actif au début et à la maturité, nous obtenons une équation quasi-linéaire pour le prix du dérivé, au sens de viscosité. Nous offrons la stratégie de couverture parfaite lorsque l’équation admet une solution régulière. Quant à la couverture d’une option européenne “covered” sous la contrainte gamma, le principe de programme dynamique utilisé précédemment n'est plus valide. En suivant les techniques du cible stochastique et de l’équation différentielle partielle, nous démontrons que le prix de la sur-réplication est devenue une solution de viscosité d’une équation non linéaire de type parabolique. Nous construisons également la stratégie ε-optimale, et proposons un schéma numérique.La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée aux études sur un nouveau schéma numérique d'EDSR, basé sur le processus de branchement. Nous rapprochons tout d’abord le générateur Lipschitzien par une suite de polynômes locaux, puis appliquons l’itération de Picard. Chaque itération de Picard peut être représentée en termes de processus de branchement. Nous démontrons la convergence de notre schéma sur l’horizon temporel infini. Un exemple concret est discuté à la fin dans l’objectif d’illustrer la performance de notre algorithme. / Classical derivatives pricing theory assumes frictionless market and infinite liquidity. These assumptions are however easily violated in real market, especially for large trades and illiquid assets. In this imperfect market, one has to consider the super-replication price as perfect hedging becomes infeasible sometimes.The first part of this dissertation focuses on proposing a model incorporating both liquidity cost and price impact. We start by deriving continuous time trading dynamics as the limit of discrete rebalancing policies. Under the constraint of holding zero underlying stock at the inception and the maturity, we obtain a quasi-linear pricing equation in the viscosity sense. A perfect hedging strategy is provided as soons as the equation admits a smooth solution. When it comes to hedging a covered European option under gamma constraint, the dynamic programming principle employed previously is no longer valid. Using stochastic target and partial differential equation smoothing techniques, we prove the super-replication price now becomes the viscosity solution of a fully non-linear parabolic equation. We also show how ε-optimal strategies can be constructed, and propose a numerical resolution scheme.The second part is dedicated to the numerical resolution of the Backward Stochastic Differential Equation (BSDE). We propose a purely forward numerical scheme, which first approximates an arbitrary Lipschitz driver by local polynomials and then applies the Picard iteration to converge to the original solution. Each Picard iteration can be represented in terms of branching diffusion systems, thus avoiding the usual estimation of conditional expectation. We also prove the convergence on an unlimited time horizon. Numerical simulation is also provided to illustrate the performance of the algorithm.

The main aim of this thesis is in analyzing and empirically testing the various valuation models and hedging schemes of foreign exchange barrier options and their robustness with respect to changing of market conditions. The purpose of the main empirical section is to get a detailed understanding of the static and dynamic performance of the analyzed models for the barrier options payoff mainly in the extreme market conditions, where we performed a benchmarking of the various hedging schemes. As a by-product, we analyzed the accomplishment of some of the model assumptions in real world setting, and the model dependency of the barrier options.