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The process of modeling earthquake hazard risk and vulnerability is a prime component of mitigation planning, but is rife with epistemic, aleatory and factual uncertainty. Reducing uncertainty in such models yields significant benefits, both in terms of extending knowledge and increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of mitigation planning. An accurate description of the built environment as an input into loss estimation would reduce factual uncertainty in the modeling process. Building attributes for earthquake loss estimation and risk assessment modeling were identified. Three modules for developing the building attributes were proposed, including structure classification, building footprint recognition and building valuation. Data from primary sources and field surveys were collected from Shelby County, Tennessee, for calibration and validation of the structure type models and for estimation of various components of building value. Building footprint libraries were generated for implementation of algorithms to programmatically recognize two-dimensional building configurations. The modules were implemented to produce a building inventory for Shelby County, Tennessee that may be used effectively in loss estimation modeling. Validation of the building inventory demonstrates effectively that advanced technologies and methods may be effectively and innovatively applied on combinations of primary and derived data and replicated in order to produce a bottom-up, reliable, accurate and cost-effective building inventory.

Tee present research focuses on seismic hazard studies for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in the North-East India with taking into account the complex sesismotectonic characteristics of the region. This area is more prone to earthquake hazard due to complex subsurface geology, peculiar topographical distribution, continuous crustal deformation due to the under thrusting of Indian and the Eurasian plates, a possible seismic gap, and many active intraplate sources identified within this region. The study area encompasses major seismic source zones such as Indo Burmese Range (IBR), Shillong Plateau (SP), Eastern Himalayan arc (EH), Bengal Basin (BB), Mishmi Thrust (MT) and Naga Thrust (NT). Five historical earthquakes of magnitude Mw>8 have been listed in the study area and 15 events of magnitude Mw>7 have occurred in last 100 years. Indian seismic code BIS-1893-2002 places the study area with a high level of seismic hazard in the country (i.e. seismic zone V). More than 60% of the area is hilly steep-terrain in nature and the altitude varies from 0 to 3000 meters. Recent works have located a seismic gap, known as the Assam gap since 1950 between the EH, SP, and IBR with the Eurasian plate. Various researchers have estimated the return period, and a large size earthquake is expected in this region any time in future. The area is also highly prone to liquefaction, since rivers in Tripura (Gomati, Howrah, Dhalai, Manu, Bijay, Jeri, Feni) and the rivers in Mizoram (Chhimtuipui, Tlawng, Tut, Tuirial and Tuivawl etc.) are scattered throughout the study area where soil deposits are of sedimentary type. In 2011, both the states together have experienced 37 earthquakes (including foreshocks and aftershocks) with magnitudes ranging from 2.9 to 6.9. Of these events, there were 23 earthquakes (M>4) of magnitudes M6.4 (Feb 4th 2011), M6.7 (March 24th 2011), M6.9 (Sept.18th 2011), M6.4 (October 30th 2011), M6.9 (Dec 13th 2011), M5.8 (Nov 21st 2011), M5 (Aug 18th 2011), M4.9 (July 28th 2011), M4.6 (Dec 15th 2011), M4.6 (Jan 21st 2011), M4.5 (Dec 9th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 21th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 17th 2011), M4.5 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.3 (Oct 10th 2011), M4.3 (Sept 22nd 2011), M4.3 (April 4th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 9th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.1 (April 29th 2011), M4.1 (Feb 22nd 2011), M4 (June 9th 2011), and M4 (Dec 2nd 2011) which occurred within this region [source: IMD (Indian Metrological Department), India]. The earthquake (M6.9) that occurred on Sept. 18th 2011 is known as the Sikkim earthquake, and it caused immense destruction including building collapse, landslides, causalities, disrupted connectivity by road damages and other infrastructural damages in Sikkim state as well as the entire North-East India. In the cities of Agartala and Aizawl of Tripura and Mizoram, construction of high rise building is highly restricted by the Government. Being the capital city, many modern infrastructures are still pending for growth of the city planning. Although many researchers have studied and reported about the status of seismicity in North-East Region of India, very few detailed studies have been carried out in this region except Guwahati, Sikkim and Manipur where almost the whole of the study area is highly vulnerable to severe shaking, amplification, liquefaction, and landslide. From the available literature, no specific study exists for Tripura and Mizoram till date. In the present research, seismic hazard assessment has been performed based on spatial-temporal distribution of seismicity and fault rupture characteristics of the region. The seismic events were collected from regions covering about 500 km from the political boundary of the study area. The earthquake data were collected from various national and international seismological agencies such as the IMD, Geological Survey of India (GSI), United State Geological Survey (USGS), and International Seismological Centre (ISC) etc. As the collected events were in different magnitude scales, all the events were homogenized to a unified moment magnitude scale using recent magnitude conversion relations (region specific) developed by the authors for North-East Region of India. The dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks) were removed using declustering algorithm and in total 3251 declustered events (main shocks) were identified in the study area since 1731 to 2011. The data set contains 825 events of MW < 4, 1279 events of MW from 4 to 4.9, 996 events MW from 5 to 5.9, 131 events MW from 6 to 6.9, 15 events MW from 7 to 7.9 and 5 events MW ≥8. The statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness (Stepp, 1972). The whole region was divided into six seismic source zones based on the updated seismicity characteristics, fault rupture mechanism, size of earthquake magnitude and the epicentral depth. Separate catalogs were used for each zone, and seismicity parameters a and b were estimated for each source zone and other necessary parameters such as mean magnitude (Mmean), Mmax, Mmin, Mc and recurrence periods were also estimated. Toposheets/vector maps of the study area were collected and seismic sources were identified and characterized as line, point, and areal sources. Linear seismic sources were identified from the Seismotectonic atlas (SEISAT, 2000) published by the GSI, in addition to the source details collected from available literature and remote sensing images. The SEISAT map contains 43 maps presented in 42 sheets covering entire India and adjacent countries with 1:1million scale. Sheets representing the features of the study area were scanned, digitized and georeferenced using MapInfo 10.0 version. After this, tectonic features and seismicity events were superimposed on the map of the study area to prepare a Seismotectonic Map with a scale of 1:1million. In seismic hazard assessment, a state of art well known methodologies (deterministic and probabilistic) was used. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) procedure, hazard assessment is based on the minimum distance between sources to site considering the maximum magnitude occurred at each source. In hazard estimation procedure a lot of uncertainties are involved, which can be explained by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) procedure related to the source, magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. The attenuation relations proposed by Atkinson and Boore (2003), and Gupta (2010) are used in this analysis. Because in this region two type activities are mostly observed, regions such as SP, and EH are under plate boundary zone whereas IBR is under subduction process. These equations (GMPEs) were validated with the observed PGA (Peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. The hazard curves for all six major sources were prepared and compiled to get the total hazard curve which represents the cumulative hazard of all sources. Evaluation of PGA, Sa (0.2s and 1.0s) parameters at bedrock level were estimated considering a grid size of 5 km x 5 km, and spectral acceleration values corresponding to a certain level of probability (2% and 10%) were done to develop uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for both the cities (Agartala and Aizawl). To carry out the seismic microzonation of Agartala and Aizawl cities, a detailed study using geotechnical and geophysical data has been carried out for site characterization and evaluation of site response according to NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazard Response Program) soil classifications (A, B, C, D, and E-type). Seismic site characterization, which is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to have the idea about the average dynamic behavior of soil deposits, and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. A series of geophysical tests at selected locations have been conducted using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method to obtain direct shear wave velocity profiles from in situ measurements for both the cities. Based on the present study a major part of Agartala city falls under site class D, very few portions come under site class E. On the other hand, Aizawl city comes under site class C. Next, a detailed site response analysis has been carried out for both the cities. This study addresses the influence of local geology and soil conditions on incoming ground motion. Subsurface geotechnical (SPT) and geophysical (MASW) data have been obtained and used to estimate surface level response. The vulnerable seismic source has been identified based on DSHA. Due to the lack of strong motion time history of the study area, synthetic ground motion time histories have been generated using point source seismological model (Boore 2003) at bedrock level based on fault rupture parameters such as stress drop, quality factor, frequency range, magnitude, hypocentral distance etc. Dynamic properties such as the shear modulus (G) and damping ratios (ζ) have been evaluated from the soil properties obtained from SPT bore log data collected from different agencies such as PWD (Public works Department), and Urban Development Dept. of the State Government, in situ shear wave velocity has been obtained from MASW survey in different locations, and following this, a site response analysis has been carried out using SHAKE-2000 to calculate the responses at the ground surface in combination of different magnitudes, distances and epicentral depth for a particular site class. An amplification factor was estimated as the ratio of the PGA at the ground surface to the PGA at bedrock level, a regression analysis was carried out to evaluate period dependant site coefficients, and hence, the period dependant hazard impact on the ground surface could be calculated to obtain the spatial variation of PGA over the study area. Further, liquefaction potential of the site (Agartala) was also evaluated using available SPT bore log data collected and using presently estimated surface level PGA. The results are presented in the form of liquefaction hazard map representing as a Factor of safety (FS) against liquefaction with various depths such as 1.5m, 10m, and 15m respectively. It has been seen that Agartala city shows highly prone to liquefaction even up to 15 m depth. Hence, site specific study is highly recommended for implementing any important project. The liquefaction hazard assessment could not be conducted for the Aizawl city because of non availability of the SPT-N data, however, the city stands on hills/mountains, and therefore, such a study is not applicable in this area. Further, seismic microzonation maps for both the cities have been prepared considering Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) which support to the Eigen value properties of the system. Two types of hazard maps have been developed, one using deterministic and another using the probabilistic seismic microzonation maps. These maps can be directly used as inputs for earthquake resistant design, and disaster mitigation planning of the study area. However, an investigation has also been made in forecasting a major earthquake (Mw>6) in North-East India using several probabilistic models such as Gamma, Weibull and lognormal models. IBR and EH show a high probability of occurrences in the next 5 years (i.e. 2013-2018) with >90% probability.

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Events or forces of nature with catastrophic consequences, or "natural disasters," have increased in both frequency and force due to climate change and increased urbanization in climate-sensitive areas. To create capacity to face these dangers, an entity must first quantify the threat and translate scientific knowledge on nature into comprehensible estimates of cost and loss. These estimates equip those at risk with knowledge to enact policy, formulate mitigation plans, raise awareness, and promote preparedness in light of potential destruction. Hazards-United States, or Hazus, is one such tool created by the federal government to estimate loss from a variety of threats, including earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods. Private and governmental agencies use Hazus to provide information and support to enact mitigation measures, craft plans, and create insurance assessments; hence the results of Hazus can have lasting and irreversible effects once the hazard in question occurs. This thesis addresses this problem and sheds light on the obvious and deterministic failings of Hazus in the context of the probable earthquake in Portland, OR; stripping away the tool's black box and exposing the grim vulnerabilities it fails to account for. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, this thesis aims to examine the critical flaws within Hazus and the omitted vulnerabilities particular to the Portland region and likely relevant in other areas of study. Second and more nationally applicable, this thesis intends to examine the influence Hazus outputs can have in the framing of seismic risk by the non-expert public. Combining the problem of inadequate understanding of risk in Portland with the questionable faith in Hazus alludes to a larger, socio-technical situation in need of attention by the academic and hazard mitigation community. This thesis addresses those issues in scope and adds to the growing body of literature on defining risk, hazard mitigation, and the consequences of natural disasters to urban environments.

Dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Technology: Emergency Medical Care, Durban University of Technology, 2011. / Earthquakes are the most frequently occurring natural disaster around the world and it is associated with a large outpouring of humanitarian assistance from the world. Existing models for humanitarian non-governmental organizations (NGO) focus on a variety of preparation and response decisions for aid distribution, but tend not to discuss medical rescue teams responding to international disasters and where they would fit into. Aim The aim of this study was to explore the preparedness of South African Non-Governmental Organisation relief teams for international earthquake response. The ultimate aim was to develop a framework for SA NGO teams responding to international earthquake disasters. Methods This qualitative study made use of a range of data collection tools including documentary sources and interviews, so that it could illuminate the study from all sides and to ensure all relevant data from people and organisations that span the globe could be collected. Conclusion and recommendations The result of the study was a conceptual map of the study recommendations which can be used in the development of a framework for improving South African NGO relief teams‟ response efficiency and effectiveness to international earthquake disasters. The research concludes with a series of recommendations which include: assigning the teams under a leading international academic and operational body and to identify qualified, well prepared and professional personnel on a database for rapid deployment. / Research and Post Graduate Development and Support.

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa has some regions which are susceptible to moderate seismic activity. A peak ground acceleration of between 0.1g and 0.15g can be expected in the southern parts of the Western Cape. Unreinforced Masonry (URM) is commonly used as a construction material for 2 to 4 storey buildings in underprivileged areas in and around Cape Town. URM is typically regarded as the material most vulnerable to damage when subjected to earthquake excitation. In this study, a three-storey URM building was analysed by applying seven earthquake time-histories, that can be expected to occur in South Africa, to a finite element model. Experimental data was used to calibrate the in- and out-of-plane stiffness of the URM. A linear modal dynamic analysis and non-linear implicit dynamic analysis were performed. The results indicated that tensile cracking of the in-plane piers was the dominant failure mode. The building relied on the postcracking capacity to resist the 0.15g magnitude earthquake. It is concluded that URM buildings of this type are at risk of failure especially if sufficient ductility is not provided. The results also showed that connection failure must be investigated further. Construction and material quality will have a large effect on the ability of typical URM buildings to withstand moderate magnitude earthquakes in South Africa. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sekere gebiede in Suid-Afrika het ’n risiko van matige seismiese aktiwiteit. Aardbewings met maksimum grondversnellings van tussen 0.1g en 0.15g kan in die suidelike gedeeltes van die Wes- Kaap voorkom. Twee- tot vier-verdieping onbewapende messelwerkgeboue kom algemeen voor in die lae sosio-ekonomiese gebiede van Kaapstad. Oor die algemeen word onbewapende messelwerkgeboue as die gebou-tipe beskou wat die maklikste skade opdoen tydens aardbewings. In hierdie studie is sewe aardbewings, wat tipies in Kaapstad verwag kan word, identifiseer en gebruik om ’n tipiese drie-verdieping onbewapende messelwerkgebou te analiseer. Eksperimentele data is gebruik om die materiaaleienskappe in die in-vlak asook uit-vlak rigtings te kalibreer. Beide ’n liniêre modale en nie-liniˆere implisiete dinamiese analises is uitgevoer. Die resultate dui daarop dat die dominante falingsmode die kraak van in-vlak messelwerk-tussenkolomme is. Die gebou moes sy plastiese kapasiteit benut om die 0.15g aardbewing te kan weerstaan. Die gevolgtrekking is dat dié tipe onbewapende messelwerkgeboue ’n risiko inhou om mee te gee, veral as genoegsame vervormbaarheid nie verskaf word nie. Die resultate toon ook dat konneksie-faling verder ondersoek moet word. Kwaliteit van vakmanskap en van materiaal het ’n groot invoed op die vermoë van onbewapende messelwerkgeboue om aardbewings van matige intensiteit in Suid-Afrika te weerstaan.

<div>Underground structures must be able to support static overburden loads, as well as to accommodate additional deformations imposed by seismic motions. Progress has been made in the last few years in understanding the soil-structure interaction mechanisms and the stress and displacement transfer from the ground to the structure during a seismic event. It seems well established that, for most tunnels, the most critical demand to the structure is caused by shear waves traveling perpendicular to the tunnel axis. Those waves cause distortions of the cross section (ovaling for a circular tunnel, and racking for a rectangular tunnel) that result in axial forces (thrusts) and bending moments. While all this has been well-studied for structures placed in linear-elastic ground, there is little information regarding the behavior of buried structures placed in nonlinear ground, especially under undrained conditions, i.e., when excess pore pressures generate and accumulate during the earthquake.</div><div><br></div><div><div>Two-dimensional dynamic numerical analyses are conducted to assess the seismic response of deep circular tunnels located far from the seismic source, under drained or undrained loading conditions. It is assumed that the liner remains elastic and that plane strain conditions apply. </div><div> A new cyclic nonlinear elastoplastic constitutive model is developed and verified, to simulate the nonlinear behavior and excess pore pressures accumulation with cycles of loading in the ground. The results of the numerical analyses show negligible effect of input frequencies on the normalized distortions of a tunnel for input frequencies smaller than 5 Hz (the distortions of the tunnel are normalized with respect to those of the free field); that is, for ratios between the wavelength of the seismic input and the tunnel opening larger than about eight to ten. The results also show that undrained conditions, compared with drained conditions, tend to reduce deformations for flexible liners and increase them for stiffer tunnels, when no accumulation of pore pressures with cycles of loading is assumed. However, when pore pressures increase with the number of cycles, the differences in distortions between drained and undrained loading are reduced, i.e., the normalized distortions increase for flexible and decrease for stiff tunnels, compared to those with drained conditions. </div></div><div><br></div><div><div>Undrained loading produces larger thrust in the liner than drained loading for stiff tunnels with flexibility ratio F ≤ 2.0.</div><div>For more flexible tunnels with F > 2.0, the behavior is the opposite, i.e., smaller axial forces are obtained for undrained loading than for drained loading. Including excess pore pressure accumulation does not introduce significant changes in the axial forces of the liner, irrespective of the flexibility of the tunnel, compared to those obtained from undrained loading without pore pressure accumulation.</div><div>The drainage loading condition (drained or undrained) or the magnitude of the free-field excess pore pressures during undrained loading do not affect the normalized bending moments for flexible tunnels, with F ≥ 2. For stiffer tunnels, with F < 2, the normalized bending moments increase from drained to undrained loading, and with the free field excess pore pressures.</div></div><div><br></div><div><div>It is found that the tunnel’s response is determined by the load on the liner, or by the distortions of the cross section, depending on the flexibility ratio. For stiff structures, with F ≤ 2.0, important axial forces and bending moments are produced in the structure, with larger magnitudes for the undrained case; while the distortions of the cross section are very small. When the tunnel becomes more flexible, the loading on the liner decreases, but the distortions of the cross section start to be important. For flexible structures with initial F ≥ 10 (for the cases investigated), the performance is largely determined by the distortions of the cross section, while the axial forces and bending moments are almost negligible. Such distortions are drastically affected by the drainage loading condition and by the magnitude of pore pressures in the free field. </div></div><div><br></div>

本研究从超常规色彩强烈的重大灾害危机处置入手，分析当代中国动员体制在改革时代的变化特征，以此为切入点来考察动员这项“革命制度遗产对当代中国政治的影响。本研究以中国政府在地震领域的危机动员实践作为实证案例，从1949年以后的不同时期选取四场震例进行纵向比较，以此来把握中国政府在危机条件下启动的政治动员在不同的政治发展阶段会呈现出什么样的整体特点。中国在地震领域的危机动员实践能够证明，中国的政治动员体制比传统动员政治研究假定的要更具动态性。兴起于革命时代的政治动员在进入改革时代以后依然能够延续，并没有随着乌托邦意识形态、计划经济乃至全能主义体制的整体瓦解而走向直线衰落。至少作为中国政府独特的公共危机处置手段，政治动员在改革时代呈现出的变化轨迹是复杂的，成形于全能主义时期的动员政治元素在改革时代不仅没有直接衰败，在某些阶段还重新获得了发展动力，能够与改革时代出现和或者强化的动员模式并存。本研究通过观察中国政府跨越不同政治经济发展阶段的地震危机动员实践发现，中国政府涉灾财政能力和行政能力的发展均衡程度，以及中国政治精英对国家在灾害治理领域角色定位的认知变化，能够对中国政府的地震危机动员模式产生重要影响；既包括s新模式兴起和旧模式衰落，也包括新旧模式的共存。而且，尽管国家能力和国家意愿之间没有必然关联，可是一旦两个因素出现比较同步的增强，还能够为这种“革命制度遗产在改革提供新的制度化动力，促成动员模式更进一步的变化。本研究的结论是，只要作为关键动员主体的中共政权在规范和结构上保持相对稳定，政治动员仍将会是中国政府重要的危机管理工具。而且随着中国政府有更强的意愿和能力来承担公共服务供给职责，政治动员形式和内涵都会有所改变。曾经具有很强非正式和应急色彩的政治动员不仅会变得越来越常态化，而且还会成为正规、任务内容更加广泛的中国涉灾公共治理体系的重要组成部分。 / This research investigates the dynamics and resilience of China’s politlical moblization by making hsitrocial comparison of Chinese government’s management of earthquake disasters across four decades. The author selects four major earthquake catastrophesTangshan, Lancang-Gengma, Lijiang, and Wenchuanfrom different historical periods to examine how Chinese government mobilized different types of subjects to contain and control crises under different political, social, and economic conditions. Based upon participatory and non-participatory observation, interviews, and extensive document analyses, this research reveals that China’s political mobilization, at least in the issue area of catastrophe management, has demonstrated a more complicated trajectory of change than predicted by most mainstream politilcal theories, espeically in the post-revolutionary era featured by increasing socio-economic pluralization and political liberalization. Insitutional elements promoting mass particpation and self-sufficience thriving in the revolutionary stage not only continue to function in the reform era, but also coexist with newly emerged mobilizational elements featured by increased state dominance, formal legal procedures, and professional expertise. Based on systematic historical comparison, the author argues that two important factors, besides macro socio-economic transformation, shape the unlinear changing trajectory of politilcal mobilization in the specific area of disaster management: degree of assertiveness of the (central) state and state capacity. This research concludes that as long as the key mobilizing agent, the ruling Communist party, remains normatively and structurally stable, political mobilization would continue to be an important instrument for the Chinese authorities to cope with natural disasters, although its populist and ad hoc nature would give way to higher degree of professionalization and routinization. More importantly, politilcal mobilization will not only promote but also become an integrated part of a more formal and comprehensive component of China’s risk governance, as the regime is getting more willing and capable to shoulder the responsibility to deliver more and better public good. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / 彭林. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 174-204). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts in Chinese and English. / Peng Lin. / Chapter 第1章 --- 导论 --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- 当代中国动员政治的变化：文献回顾 --- p.4 / Chapter 1.2 --- 如何界定动员 --- p.9 / Chapter 1.3 --- 动员模式及其变化 --- p.11 / Chapter 1.4 --- 如何解释动员模式变化 --- p.16 / Chapter 1.4.1 --- 发展水平 --- p.17 / Chapter 1.4.2 --- 国家角色定位 --- p.18 / Chapter 1.4.3 --- 国家能力 --- p.19 / Chapter 1.5 --- 对研究方法的一些说明 --- p.21 / Chapter 1.6 --- 文章结构 --- p.23 / Chapter 第2章 --- 唐山地震：大众动员的巅峰与转折 --- p.29 / Chapter 2.1 --- 1949年以后中国的大众动员抗灾体制 --- p.29 / Chapter 2.2 --- 从邢台到海城：动员型抗震体制的形成 --- p.32 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- 邢台地震：新中国第一场抗震救灾及其制度遗产 --- p.32 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- “69号文件与海城地震：主动动员模式的确立 --- p.40 / Chapter 2.3 --- 唐山地震 --- p.43 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- “漏报：主动动员模式弱点暴露 --- p.43 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- 城市灾害对大众动员模式的整体挑战 --- p.46 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- “跨时代的动员：中国抗灾动员政治的延续与变化 --- p.50 / Chapter 第3章 --- 澜沧-耿马地震：专业化动员的崛起于大众动员的延续 --- p.53 / Chapter 3.1 --- 大众动员模式在地震领域的不均衡衰落 --- p.53 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- 地震工作转型与主动动员模式的变 --- p.54 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- 农村经济改革对灾后重建的冲击 --- p.56 / Chapter 3.2 --- 澜沧-耿马地震 --- p.58 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- 备灾动员的变化：从“群测群防到“内松外紧 --- p.58 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- 应急预案与应急动员理性化 --- p.59 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- 震后重建：筹资压力与大众动员的延续 --- p.61 / Chapter 3.2.4 --- 新资源的出现于国家动员的延伸 --- p.64 / Chapter 第4章 --- 丽江地震：1990年代大众动员模式“重新强势 --- p.70 / Chapter 4.1 --- 综合减灾能力建设与专业化动员的发展局限 --- p.71 / Chapter 4.2 --- 国家后撤对动员型抗灾体制的冲击 --- p.74 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- 救灾分级挂你了与动员主体层次下沉 --- p.75 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- 开放式民间自我保障机制的扩张及其影响 --- p.78 / Chapter 4.3 --- 丽江地震 --- p.80 / Chapter 4.3.1 --- 主动备灾动员进一步正规化与衰落 --- p.80 / Chapter 4.3.2 --- 震后重建：外部动员与灾区就地动员 --- p.82 / Chapter 第5章 --- 汶川地震：复合型动员模式成型 --- p.95 / Chapter 5.1 --- 从“生产自救到“国家主导：中国救灾员模式转变 --- p.96 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- “非典与危机“管理的出现 --- p.97 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- 中国灾害治理“社会转向 --- p.99 / Chapter 5.2 --- “重新动员社会及其影响 --- p.102 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- “向钱看：社会捐赠动员体系的发展 --- p.102 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- 新的人力动员：从农村转向城市 --- p.105 / Chapter 5.3 --- 汶川地震 --- p.107 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- 震后应急与专业化动员的发展 --- p.108 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- 汶川重建与对口支援的新变化 --- p.110 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- 国家动员与社会动员的互动 --- p.120 / Chapter 5.4 --- 汶川地震与抗灾动员新模式 --- p.127 / Chapter 第6章 --- 跨越四十年的抗震动员：比较与讨论 --- p.136 / Chapter 6.1 --- 跨越四十年的地震灾害治理和抗震动员 --- p.137 / Chapter 6.2 --- 解释动员模式的变化 --- p.141 / Chapter 6.2.1 --- 发展水平提升带来的复杂影响 --- p.141 / Chapter 6.2.2 --- 国家角色定位的变化 --- p.144 / Chapter 6.2.3 --- 灾害治理能力的多变性 --- p.148 / Chapter 6.3 --- 抗震动员模式变化的复杂性 --- p.151 / Chapter 6.3.1 --- 震前备灾动员模式的变化 --- p.153 / Chapter 6.3.2 --- 震后应急动员模式的变化 --- p.154 / Chapter 6.3.3 --- 重建动员模式的变化 --- p.156 / Chapter 6.4 --- 分析与发现 --- p.159 / Chapter 第7章 --- 结语 --- p.167 / Chapter 7.1 --- 政治动员的连贯性与非线性变迁 --- p.167 / Chapter 7.2 --- 中国动员型危机治理模式的独特性与横向比较的可能性 --- p.169 / 参考书目 --- p.174 / Chapter 附录1 --- 访谈 --- p.205 / Chapter 附录2 --- 档案 --- p.207 / Chapter 附录3 --- 年鉴、公报、地方志和专业志 --- p.209 / Chapter 附录4 --- 过往报纸和期刊 --- p.212 / Chapter 附录5 --- 开放数据库 --- p.212 / Chapter 附录6 --- 中国灾情数据 --- p.213

L’ambition de ce travail est la prédiction du champ d’onde incident réalistique, induit par des mouvement forts de sol, aux sites d’importance stratégique, comme des centrales nucléaires. À cette fin, un plateforme multi-outil est développé et exploité pour simuler les aspects différents d’un phénomène complexe et multi-échelle comme un tremblement de terre. Ce cadre computationnel fait face à la nature diversifiée d’un tremblement de terre par approche holistique local-régionale.Un cas d’étude complexe est choisie: le tremblement de terre MW6.6 Niigata-Ken Ch¯uetsu-Oki, qui a endommagé la centrale nucléaire de Kashiwazaki-Kariwa. Les effets de site non-linéaires observés sont à premier examinés et caractérisés. Dans la suite, le modèle 3D «de la faille au site» est construit et employé pour prédire le mouvement sismique dans une bande de fréquence de 0-7 Hz. L’effet de la structure géologique pliée au-dessous du site est quantifié en simulant deux chocs d’intensité modérée et en évaluant la variabilité spatiale des spectres de réponse aux différents endroits dans le site nucléaire. Le résultat numérique souligne le besoin d’une description plus détaillée du champ d’onde incident utilisé comme paramètre d’entrée dans la conception structurel antisismique de réacteurs nucléaires et des installations. Finalement, la bande de fréquences des signaux synthétiques obtenues comme résultat des simulations numériques est agrandie en exploitant la prédiction stochastique des ordonnées spectrales à courte période fournies par des Réseaux Artificiels de Neurones. / The ambition of this work is the prediction of a synthetic yet realistic broad-band incident wave-field, induced by strong ground motion earthquakes at sites of strategic importance, such as nuclear power plants. To this end, an multi-tool platform is developed and exploited to simulate the different aspects of the complex and multi-scale phenomenon an earthquake embodies. This multi-scale computational framework copes with the manifold nature of an earthquake by a holistic local-to-regional approach. A complex case study is chosen to this end: is the MW6.6 Niigata-Ken Ch¯uetsu-Oki earthquake, which damaged the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant. The observed non-linear site-effects are at first investigated and characterized. In the following, the 3D source-to-site model is constructed and employed to provide reliable input ground motion, for a frequency band of 0-7 Hz. The effect of the folded geological structure underneath the site is quantified by simulating two aftershocks of moderate intensity and by estimating the spatial variability of the response spectra at different locations within the nuclear site. The numerical outcome stresses the need for a more detailed description of the incident wave-field used as input parameter in the antiseismic structural design of nuclear reactors and facilities. Finally, the frequency band of the time-histories obtained as outcome of the numerical simulations is enlarged by exploiting the stochastic prediction of short-period response ordinates provided by Artificial Neural Networks.