La possibilité des catastrophes nous oblige à repenser les définitions progressives, non-linéaires ("l'instauration," dans le vocabulaire d'Etienne Souriau) des concepts de risque, d'espace et d'expertise. Suivant une approche symétrique, ce travail explore plusieurs dimensions de l'espace «à risque» dans la Baie de San Francisco, ancrées dans l'expérience partagée d'une communauté épistémique plongée dans l ‘attente d'un séisme majeur - le "Big One". Avec les outils de la géographie et des études des sciences et technologies, nous nous pencherons sur le système complexe de relations qui co-construit le risque de tremblements de terre et regarderons la façon dont son instauration progressive entraine des transformations dans l'aménagement et la pratique de l'espace, la définition du risque, et, finalement, dans la figure de l'expert. A partir d'une recherche empirique approfondie menée dans la baie de San Francisco, l'analyse de la communauté des «Earthquake Junkies» - comme ces experts se présentent eux-mêmes - nous verrons que les différentes existences du tremblement de terre questionnent la séparation rigide entre science et expérience, rationalité et émotion, expertise et savoir profane. En proposant une perspective pragmatique, cette recherche propose également un cadre pour réfléchir à la définition du sujet «à risque » / The potentiality of disasters forces us to rethink progressive, yet non-linear definitions (“instauration,” in Souriau vocabulary) of risk, space, and expertise. Following a symmetrical approach, this work explores several moving dimensions of the subject and space “at risk” in the San Francisco Bay Area, within the shared experience of an epistemic community waiting for a major earthquake - “the Big One” - to unfold. With a Geography, Science and Technologies Studies perspectives, we will look at the complex system of relations that co-construct the risk of earthquakes and the ways in which this successive instauration convene transformations in the making of space, the definition of risk, and finally, the translation of this scientific work into public policies and the figure of the expert. Drawing from in-depth empirical research of the Bay Area, analyzing the community of “Earthquake Junkies”—as these experts called themselves—and other risk-conscious residents, this work emphasizes the role of experience and emotions in multiple interlaced processes, connecting risk, space, and expertise. Following this exploration will see that the rigid definition that have separated science and experience, rationality and emotion, expertise and lay perception should be recomposed in favor of a more systematic approach that takes into account the role of the different dimensions of knowledge. As a prospect for a better understanding of the complex definition of risk in the public sphere, this research also proposes a framework to think about the definition of the subject “at risk,” as well as allows for reflection on the establishment of closest relation between scientific and non-scientific knowledge

The region of West Bohemia/Vogtland in the Czech–German border area is well known for the repeated occurrence of earthquake swarms, CO2 emanations and mofette fields. To deepen the understanding of these phenomena local earthquake tomography of the Vp and Vp/Vs structure and attenuation tomography are carried out in this study. In comparison with previous investigations the travel time tomography revealed more details of the near-surface geology, potential fluid pathways and features around and below the swarm focal zone. In the uppermost crust, for the first time the Cheb basin and the Bublák/Hartoušov mofette fields were imaged as distinct anomalies of Vp and Vp/Vs. The well-pronounced low-Vp anomaly of the Cheb basin is not continuing into the Eger rift indicating a particular role of the basin within the rift system. A steep channel of increased Vp/Vs is interpreted as the pathway for fluids ascending from the earthquake swarm focal zone up to the Bublák/Hartoušov mofette fields. As a new feature, a mid-crustal body of high Vp and increased Vp/Vs is revealed just below and north of the earthquake swarm focal zone. It may represent a solidified intrusive body which emplaced prior or during the formation of the rift system. The enhanced fluid flow into the focal zone and triggering of earthquakes could be driven by the presence of the intrusive body if cooling is not fully completed. The assumed intrusive structure is considered as a heterogeneity leading to higher stress particularly at the junction of the rift system with the basin and prominent fault structures. This may additionally contribute to the triggering of earthquakes. The three-dimensional (3-D) P-wave attenuation (Qp) model for West Bohemia is the first of its kind. Path-averaged attenuation t * is calculated from amplitude spectra of time windows around the P-wave arrivals of local earthquakes. Average value or Qp for stations close to Nový Kostel are very low (< 150) compared to that of stations located further away from the focal zone (increases up to 500 within 80 km distance). The SIMUL2000 tomography scheme is used to invert the t * for P-wave attenuation perturbation. Analysis of resolution shows that the model is wellresolved in the vicinity of earthquake swarm hypocenters. The prominent features of the model are located around Nový Kostel focal zone and its northern vicinity. Beneath Nový Kostel a vertically stretched (down to depth of 11 km) and a highly attenuating body is observed. This might be due to fracturing and high density of cracks inside the weak earthquake swarm zone in conjunction with presence of free gas/fluid. Further north of Nový Kostel two high attenuating body are located at depths between 2 to 8 km which can represents trapped laterally distributed fluids. The eastern anomaly shows a good correlation with the fluid accumulation area which was suggested in 9HR seismic profile.

[EN] This thesis proposes a method for assessing the seismic vulnerability of the residential building in Valencia, understood according to the definition of Sandi (1983), and prediction of damage to buildings in terms of seismic intensity. With this aim, we have studied different methods of analysis of vulnerability and damage to the building, ranging from the simplest based on visual observation to others involving the use of computer applications for estimating capacity and demand curves models using push-over. Given the complexity of the models of the behavior of buildings under earthquake and scattering observations recorded earthquakes in history, none of these methods is able to provide a satisfactory predicting expected damages under any circumstances. Therefore, we maintain a reliable estimate of the seismic vulnerability of buildings should be based on the correlation results or combination of different methods. For this purpose, first, we have presented the state of the art on evaluation methods available. Then we characterized the Valencian housing stock and identified their most representative building types. From this description, we estimated the expected damage in these buildings according to their situation and the intensity of the earthquake, by applying the general methods of assessment and, in the case of a particular building representative, the application of models push-over. Finally, we compared the results obtained and we discussed possible strategies correlation and interpretation of different methods. / [ES] Esta tesis propone un método de evaluación de la vulnerabilidad sísmica de la edificación residencial valenciana, entendida de acuerdo con la definición de Sandi (1983), y de predicción de los daños en las construcciones en función de la intensidad sísmica. Con este objetivo, hemos estudiado diferentes métodos de análisis de vulnerabilidad y daños en la edificación, abarcando desde los más sencillos basados en la observación visual hasta otras que impliquen la utilización de aplicaciones informáticas para la estimación de las curvas de capacidad-demanda mediante modelos push-over. Teniendo en cuenta la complejidad de los modelos de aproximación al comportamiento de los edificios sometidos a sismo y la dispersión en las observaciones registradas en terremotos históricos, ninguno de estos métodos es capaz de ofrecer una predicción satisfactoria de los daños esperados en cualquier circunstancia. Por ello, sostenemos que una estimación fiable de la vulnerabilidad sísmica de los edificios debe basarse en la correlación o combinación de resultados de diferentes métodos. Con este objetivo, en primer lugar, hemos presentado el estado del arte sobre los métodos de evaluación disponibles. A continuación, hemos caracterizado el parque inmobiliario valenciano e identificado sus tipos edificatorios más representativos. A partir de esta caracterización, hemos estimado el daño esperado en estos edificios en función de su situación y de la intensidad del sismo, mediante la aplicación de los métodos generales de evaluación y, en el caso de un edificio particular y representativo, la aplicación de modelos push-over. Por último, hemos comparado los resultados obtenidos y hemos discutido posibles estrategias de correlación e interpretación de los diferentes métodos. / [CAT] Aquesta tesi proposa un mètode d'avaluació de la vulnerabilitat sísmica de l'edificació residencial valenciana, entesa d'acord amb la definició de Sandi (1983), i de predicció dels danys en les construccions en funció de la intensitat sísmica. Amb aquest objectiu, hem estudiat diferents mètodes d'anàlisi de vulnerabilitat i danys en l'edificació, abastant des dels més senzills basats en l'observació visual fins a d'altres que impliquen la utilització d'aplicacions informàtiques per a l'estimació de les corbes de capacitat-demanda mitjançant models push-over. Tenint en compte la complexitat dels models d'aproximació al comportament dels edificis sotmesos a sisme i la dispersió en les observacions registrades en terratrèmols històrics, cap d'aquests mètodes és capaç d'oferir una predicció satisfactòria dels danys esperats en qualsevol circumstància. Per això, sostenim que una estimació fiable de la vulnerabilitat sísmica dels edificis ha de basar-se en la correlació o combinació de resultats de diferents mètodes. Amb aquest objectiu, en primer lloc, hem presentat l'estat de l'art sobre els mètodes d'avaluació disponibles. A continuació, hem caracteritzat el parc immobiliari valencià i identificat els seus tipus edificatoris més representatius. A partir d'aquesta caracterització, hem estimat el dany esperat en aquests edificis en funció de la seua situació i de la intensitat del sisme, mitjançant l'aplicació dels mètodes generals d'avaluació i, en el cas d'un edifici particular i representatiu, l'aplicació de models push-over. Finalment, hem comparat els resultats obtinguts i hem discutit possibles estratègies de correlació i interpretació dels diferents mètodes. / Iborra Posadas, J. (2016). ESTIMACIÓ DE LA VULNERABILITAT SÍSMICA D'UNA ZONA RESIDENCIAL I PREDICCIÓ DEL SEU DANY ESPERAT EN FUNCIÓ DE LA INTENSITAT SÍSMICA [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/62592 / TESIS

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第22105号 / 地環博第191号 / 新制||地環||37(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇佐美 誠, 准教授 SINGER JANE, 准教授 吉野 章 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(理学) / 乙第13375号 / 論理博第1574号 / 新制||理||1666(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科 / (主査)教授 飯尾 能久, 教授 岩田 知孝, 教授 久家 慶子 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

Determining risk to human populations due to natural disasters has been a topic of interest in the STEM fields for centuries. Earthquakes and the tsunamis they cause are of particular interest due to their repetition cycles. These cycles can last hundreds of years but we have only had modern measuring instruments for the last century or so which makes analysis difficult. In this document, we explore ways to improve upon an existing method for reconstructing earthquakes from historical accounts of tsunamis. This method was designed and implemented by Jared P Whitehead's research group over the last 5 years. The issue of this method that we address is the relatively slow convergence. One reason for this slow convergence is caused by the random walk proposal step in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We explore ways of constructing an approximate gradient of the model in order to apply a more robust MCMC Method called MALA that uses a gradient combined with some randomness to propose new samples. The types of approximate gradients we explore were a heuristic gradient, a data driven gradient and a gradient of a surrogate model. We chose to use the gradient of a simplified tsunami formula for our implementation. Our MALA algorithm under performed the previous random walk method which we believe implies that the simplified tsunami model didn't give sufficient information to guide the proposed samples in the optimal direction. Further experimentation would be needed to confirm this and we are confident that there are other ways we can improve our convergence as specified in the future work section. Our method is built into the existing Python package tsunamibayes. It is available, open-source, on GitHub: https://github.com/jwp37/tsunamibayes.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第23454号 / 理博第4748号 / 新制||理||1681(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 伊藤 喜宏, 准教授 宮澤 理稔, 教授 久家 慶子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

This research involves shake table testing of 1g scale models that mimic the coupled seismic response of a structure on a shallow mat foundation and foundation soil (known as soil-foundation-structural-interaction or SFSI). In previous research, SFSI effects have been quantified through analytical models, numerical analyses, and limited field data. This research works towards increasing the amount of empirical data through scale model shake table testing. A suite of earthquake time histories is considered in evaluating a nominal 10th scale soil-structure model using a flexible wall barrel on a 1-D shake table. San Francisco Young Bay Mud (YBM) is used as the prototype soil and long period narrow building as the prototype structure. Foundation embedment depth, fundamental mode of the structure, and seismic loading function are varied to generate a large database of SFSI results under controlled conditions. The foundation level response is compared to free-field responses to determine the magnitude of the SFSI. The results confirm the effects of foundation embedment on the peak ground motion and the spectral acceleration at the predominant period of the structure. The foundation level accelerations are deamplified compared to free-field results. Results also confirm the legitimacy of the testing platform and program by comparing the data to previous experimental study.

La presente investigación propone un procedimiento general de análisis para edificios altos sobre la base de los requerimientos de la Norma Peruana E.030. Primero, se realiza la configuración estructural de los edificios, se define el número de edificios y la cantidad de niveles, así como el sistema estructural predominante. Luego, se definen las características de los materiales, las cargas y las combinaciones. Los casos de estudio que se desarrollan se basan en edificaciones altas peruanas existentes como el Hotel Westin Libertador y el Banco de la Nación. Para la configuración estructural se utilizó el sistema estructural de núcleo rígido debido a su gran versatilidad y funcionalidad. Después, se describen los métodos de análisis de estructuras altas y se procede con el análisis de la verificación de derivas y realizar una comparación de la cortante en la base mediante el análisis estático, análisis dinámico modal espectral y análisis lineal tiempo historia. Para el análisis tiempo historia se empleó 5 registros peruanos espectro compatible, mientras que para el diseño de las placas de concreto armado se usó el análisis modal espectral. / Abstract. Currently, there is an increase in the demand for tall buildings in the city of Lima. This research proposes to reduce the dynamic amplification factor through the seismic design of tall buildings based on the requirements of Peruvian code considering that they are regular in plan and height. Mini-mum base shear values according to the comparison of static seismic shear and dynamic shear from spectral modal analysis were reviewed for cases of buildings larger than 120 meters. The study of 28 reinforced concrete build-ings was proposed, with different heights - varying from 24 to 36 floors, with different floor configurations, as well as the arrangement of the walls considering as a rigid core structural system. Additionally, the characteristics of the materials, the loads and combinations were defined. The responses of these buildings were determined by the response spectrum analysis (RSA) and then compared with those obtained by the lineal response history analy-sis (LRHA), for the last analysis, five Peruvian seismic records were used and scaled to 0.45g. The seismic responses of the LRHA procedure were taken as benchmark. The result of this study is the analysis and proposal of the C / R factor for high-rise buildings, as well as obtaining the base shear and drift verification. Minimum base shear values can be reduced for high or long-term buildings, being regular in plan and height. / Trabajo de investigación

A computer program for the analysis of loads on buildings is developed. The program determines wind loads, earthquake loads, and snow loads according to the ASCE 7-93 Standard Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures (ASCE 7-93). The program is developed using the object-oriented programming methodology and runs on the Microsoft Windows 95 graphical environment. It is a valuable and useful tool for determining loads on buildings. / Master of Engineering