This comparative case study examining epidemiological practices in Vietnam and the US revealed three pandemic influenza paradoxes: The paradox of attribution which asserts that pandemic influenza comes exclusively from Asia even though historical evidence points to the contrary; the paradox of prevention which encourages industrial methods (i.e., factory farming) for combating influenza even though there is conflicting evidence for any superiority of this method in terms of means of production or disease prevention; and the paradox of action where epidemiologists act in ways not consistent with prevailing epidemiological recommendations.  The existence of these paradoxes may, in fact, impede efforts at stopping and preventing pandemic influenza.  In order to find the root causes of these paradoxes, this study examined indigenous media and historical and contemporary research reports on pandemic influenza.  This archival information was juxtaposed to viewpoints garnered from ethnographic interviews with epidemiologists who have worked in Vietnam, the United States, or in both countries.  This study found that these paradoxes endure because of the dual nature of science " the known and the unknown elements of current knowledge " and assumptions made between the two.  The dual nature of science describes both the information that has been codified and information that has not been codified and the implications between the two. In other words, in between the spaces of known information, there are attempts to fill in the gaps in knowledge, which results in paradoxes. Of particular importance in this gap-filling process are the three "C's" of collaboration, conflict, and competition.  Collaboration is integral to the successful prevention of influenza pandemics; however, it is this same collaboration wherein which epidemiologists are trained to be so highly specialized that they often depend on unvetted external expert information.  Conflict and competition occur from the geopolitical level all they way down to the level of the individual epidemiologist and are influenced by the political and scientific economy along with social and cultural factors. / Ph. D.

Situating the 1878 yellow fever epidemic in Memphis's long history shows how concern over Memphis's national reputation influenced how city leaders dealt with crisis. Throughout its history, Memphis government officials and business leaders promoted Memphis as a good city to do business, free from disease and racial strife. Despite their best efforts, they could not deny explosive incidents of racially-based violence or disease outbreaks. Instead, they tried to mitigate negative repercussions on the local economy during times of crisis. When the 1878 yellow fever epidemic struck, the Citizen's Relief Committee, the impromptu government formed by business leaders after outbreak, promoted Memphis as a functioning white city that was operating the best it could under terrible circumstances so the city could resume normal economic activity once the fever passed. This became the dominant narrative, repeated by newspapers across the country in 1878 and historians today. This narrative is problematic because it ignores black Memphians, who composed of 80% of the city's population after outbreak. Instead of recognizing black Memphians participation in relief activities, they promoted stories in the media about lazy or riotous African Americans to justify denying sufficient aid to the black community. Catholics had better luck earning the gratitude of Memphis's leaders. They worked with the white government and charities as nurses and fundraisers, and earned a glowing reputation in national newspapers. The inclusion of African Americans and Catholics in this thesis tells a more complete story and challenges white Memphians' carefully cultivated narrative. / Master of Arts

We study fast-slow versions of the SIR, SIRS and SIRWS epidemiological models, and of the SIRS epidemiological model on homogeneous graphs, obtained through the application of the moment closure method. The multiple time scale behavior is introduced to account for large differences between some of the rates of the epidemiological pathways. Our main purpose is to show that the fast-slow models, even though in nonstandard form, can be studied by means of Geometric Singular Perturbation Theory (GSPT). In particular, without using Lyapunov's method, we are able to not only analyze the stability of the endemic equilibria of the SIR and SIRS models, but also to show that in the remaining models limit cycles arise. We show that the proposed approach is particularly useful in more complicated (higher dimensional) models such as the SIRWS model and the SIRS on homogeneous graphs, for which we provide a detailed description of their dynamics by combining analytic and numerical techniques. In particular, for the latter we show that the model can give rise to periodic solutions, differently from the corresponding model based on homogeneous mixing.

No description available.

Master of Science / Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering / Caterina M. Scoglio / Disruption Tolerant Networks or opportunistic networks represent a class of networks where there is no contemporaneous path from source to destination. In other words, these are networks with intermittent connections. These networks are generally sparse or highly mobile wireless networks. Each node has a limited radio range and the connections between nodes may be disrupted due to node movement, hostile environments or power sleep schedules, etc. A common example of such networks is a sensor network monitoring nature or military field or a herd of animals under study. Epidemic routing is a widely proposed routing mechanism for data propagation in these type of networks. According to this mechanism, the source copies its packets to all the nodes it meets in its radio range. These nodes in turn copy the received packets to the other nodes they meet and so on. The data to be transmitted travels in a way analogous to the spread of an infection in a biological network. The destination finally receives the packet and measures are taken to eradicate the packet from the network. The task of routing in epidemic networks faces certain difficulties involving minimizing the delivery delay with a reduced consumption of resources. Every node has severe power constraints and the network is also susceptible to temporary but random failure of nodes. In the previous work, the parameter of mobility has been considered a constant for a certain setting. In our setting, we consider a varying parameter of mobility. In this framework, we determine the optimal mobility pattern and a forwarding policy that a network should follow in order to meet the trade-off between delivery delay and power consumption. In addition, the mobility pattern should be such that it can be practically incorporated. In our work, we formulate an optimization problem which is solved by using the principles of dynamic programming. We have tested the optimal algorithm through extensive simulations and they show that this optimization problem has a global solution.

Objetivo. Desenvolvimento de uma estrutura para aplicação de simulação numérica estocástica no estudo de espalhamento de doenças em metapopulações de maneira que esta incorpore a topologia dinâmica de contatos entre as subpopulações, verificando as peculiaridades do modelo e aplicando este modelo às redes de movimentação de animais de Pernambuco para estudar o papel das feiras de animais. Método. Foi utilizado o paradigma de modelos híbridos para tratar do espalhamento de doenças nas metapopulações que, das nossas aplicações, resultou na união de duas estratégias de modelagem: Modelos Baseados no Indivíduo e o Algorítimo de Simulação Estocástica. Aplicamos os modelos híbridos em redes de movimentação de animais reais e fictícias para destacar as diferenças dos modelos híbridos com diferentes abordagens de migração (pendular e definitiva) e comparamos estes modelos com modelos clássicos de equações diferenciais. Ainda, através do pacote hybridModels, estudamos o papel das feiras de animais em cenários de epidemia de febre aftosa na rede de movimentação de animais de Pernambuco, introduzindo a doença numa feira de animais contida numa amostra da base de Guia de Trânsito Animal e calculamos a cadeia de infecção dos estabelecimentos. Resultados. Constatamos que no estudo de epidemias com o uso de modelo híbrido, a migração pendular, na média, subestima o número de animais infectados no cenário de comercialização de animais (migração defi nitiva), além de traduzir uma dinâmica de espalhamento enganosa, ignorando cenários mais complexo oferecido pela migração definitiva. Criamos o pacote hybridModels que generaliza os modelos híbridos com migração definitiva e com ele aplicamos um modelo híbrido SIR na rede de Pernambuco e verificamos que as feiras de animais de Pernambuco são potentes disseminadores de doenças transmissíveis. Conclusão. Apesar de custo computacional maior no estudo de espalhamento de doenças, a migração definitiva é o mais adequado tipo de conexão entre as subpopulações de animais de produção. Ainda, de acordo com as nossas analises, as feiras de animais estão entre os mais importantes nós na rede de movimentação de Pernambuco e devem ter lugar de destaque nas estratégias de controle e vigilância epidemiológica / Objective. Development of framework applied to stochastic numerical simulation for the study of disease spreading in metapopulations, in a way that it incorporates the dynamic topology of contacts between subpopulations, checking the framework peculiarities and applying it to the animal movement network of Pernambuco to study the role of animal markets. Method. We used hybrid models paradigm to treat disease spread in metapopulations. From our applications it has resulted in the union of two modeling strategies: Individual-based model and the Algorithm for Stochastic Simulation. We applied hybrid models in real and fictitious networks to highlight the differences between different animal movement approaches (commuting and migration) and we compared these models with classic models of differential equations. Furthermore, through the hybridModels package, we studied the role of animal markets in epidemic scenarios of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in animal movement networks of Pernambuco, introducing the disease in an animal market of a sample from the Animal Transit Record of Pernambuco’s database and calculating the contact infection chain of premises. Results. We noted that in the study of epidemics using a hybrid model, commuting can underestimates the number of infected animals in the animal trade scenario (migration), and resulting in a misleading spreading dynamic by ignoring a more complex scenario that occurs with migration. We created the hybridModels package that generalizes the hybrid models with migration, applied a SIR hybrid model to the animal movement network of Pernambuco and verified that animal markets are important disease spreaders. Conclusion. Despite its higher computational cost in the study of epidemics in animal movement networks, migration is the most suitable type of connection between subpopulations. Furthermore, animal markets of Pernambuco are among the most important nodes for disease transmission and should be considered in strategies of surveillance and disease control

A movimentação de animais em uma rede de fazendas e o espalhamento de algumas doenças animais estão intrinsecamente relacionados. Assim, compreender a dinâmica do espalhamento de doenças infecciosas nestas redes é um instrumento importante no controle dessas doenças. Usando as informações sobre as movimentações de bovinos no estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil, em 2007, reconstruiu-se a rede de trânsito e a rede de proximidade geográfica entre os estabelecimentos desse estado, além de redes hipotéticas seguindo os modelos de rede Molloy-Reed, Kalisky, Método A e Método B, onde simulou-se, usando diferentes configurações do modelo SLIRS, o espalhamento de doenças com parâmetros hipotéticos e reais (brucelose e febre aftosa). Além disso, simulou-se o controle do espalhamento dessas doenças considerando o controle por imunização e por restrição, com e sem rearranjo das movimentações após a restrição, selecionando os estabelecimentos a serem protegidos de forma aleatória, baseando-se no grau de movimentação dos animais e utilizando o conceito do paradoxo da amizade. Dentre os resultados, destacam-se que apesar dos padrões das curvas de prevalência nas redes hipotéticas serem semelhantes aos da rede real, os valores observados foram maiores nas redes hipotéticas, indicando que utilizá-las no planejamento de políticas de controle de doenças no lugar da rede real pode levar a um maior uso de recursos do que seria necessário. Além disso, no controle das doenças tanto com parâmetros hipotéticos quanto com parâmetros reais, nas simulações usando apenas a rede de trânsito dos animais, observou-se uma redução mais efetiva da prevalência ao se selecionar os estabelecimentos com maior grau total do que a da seleção aleatória, enquanto que nas simulações que consideraram a rede de proximidade geográfica dos estabelecimentos, a redução na prevalência das estratégias que selecionaram estabelecimentos específicos foram semelhantes aos da seleção aleatória. Sobre o efeito do rearranjo das movimentações, observou-se que este pode facilitar o espalhamento de doenças na rede, mesmo nas situações em que se aplica alguma estratégia de controle. Espera-se que os resultados das simulações matemáticas possam contribuir para a discussão do impacto relativo entre as estratégias de controle mencionadas e que futuramente possam auxiliar nas atividades dos órgãos responsáveis pela vigilância epidemiológica e no desenvolvimento de políticas de prevenção e controle de doenças em animais. / The animals’ movements in a farms network and the spread of some animal diseases are intrinsically related. Therefore, comprehending the dynamics of the spreading of infectious diseases in these networks is an important tool in controlling these diseases. Using the information about the bovine movements from the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil, in 2007, we rebuilt the network of animal movements and the geographic proximity network between the premises of this state, in addition to hypothetical networks following the network models Molloy-Reed, Kalisky, Method A and Method B, where we simulated, using different configurations of the model SLIRS, the spread of diseases with hypothetical parameters e real ones (brucellosis and foot and mouth disease). Moreover, we simulated the control of these diseases spreading, considering the control by immunization and by restriction, with and without the rearrangement of the movements after the restriction, selecting the premises to be protected randomly, based on the degree of animal’s movements and using the concept of the friendship paradox. Among the results, stands out that although the pattern of the prevalence curves in the hypothetical networks were similar to the ones in the real network, the observed values were higher in the hypothetical networks, indicating that using them in the planning of policies to control diseases in place of the real network might lead to a greater expense of resources than it would be necessary. Furthermore, in the control of the diseases both with hypothetical parameters as well as with real parameters, in the simulations using only the animal’s movements network, it was observed a more effective reduction of the prevalence when selecting the premises with the highest total degree than the random selection, while in the simulations that considered the network of geographic proximity of the premises, the reduction in the prevalence of the strategies that selected specific premises were similar to the random selection. On the effect of rearranging the movements, it was observed that it may facilitate the spread of diseases in the network even in situations where some control strategy is used. We hope that the results of the mathematical simulations may contribute to the discussion of the relative impact of the mentioned control strategies and that in the future they may assist in the activities of agencies responsible for disease surveillance and in the development of policies to prevent and control diseases in animals.

No description available.

A dinâmica de movimentação de animais em uma rede de propriedades rurais e o espalhamento de algumas doenças animais estão intrinsecamente relacionados. Assim, compreender a dinâmica do espalhamento de doenças infecciosas nestas redes é um instrumento importante no controle destas. Neste projeto, foram implementados algoritmos para gerar redes de movimentação de animais hipotéticas e reconstruiu-se a rede de movimentações de bovinos do Estado do Mato Grosso, 2007, Brasil. Foram feitas diversas simulações a fim de verificar o espalhamento de doenças agudas e crônicas nessas redes. Diferentes dinâmicas de espalhamento de doenças infecciosas foram observadas em redes com a mesma distribuição de graus e diferentes estruturas topológicas. Espera-se que os resultados das simulações matemáticas possam auxiliar nas atividades dos órgãos responsáveis pela vigilância epidemiológica e incentivar outros Estados a seguirem o exemplo do Estado do Mato Grosso, a construírem bancos de dados que possam ser analisados utilizando a metodologia de redes. / The animals\' movements in a farms network and the spread of some animal diseases are intrinsically related. Therefore, comprehending the dynamics of the spreading of infectious diseases in these networks is an important tool in controlling these diseases. In this project, we have implemented algorithms to generate hypothetical networks of animals\' movements and rebuilt the network of bovine movements from the State of Mato Grosso, 2007, Brazil. We made several simulations in order to check the spreading of acute and chronic disease in these networks. Different dynamics of infectious disease spreading were observed in networks with the same degree distribution and different topological structure. We hope that the results of the mathematical simulations may assist in the activities of agencies responsible for disease surveillance and encourage other States to follow the example of the State of Mato Grosso, to build databases that can be analyzed using the methodology of networks.

Apresentamos o estudo de três modelos estocásticos governadas por equações mestras que descrevem a propagação de epidemias em uma comunidade de indivíduos; / We present a study of three stochastic models, governed by master equations, that decribe the epidemic spreding in a community of individuals;