Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Benennung von Anforderungen an eine IT-basierte Forschungs-und Betriebsplattform zur Unterstützung eines Frühwarnsystems, welches Defizite bei der Zusammenarbeit und Kommunikation von Kooperationspartnern in virtuellen Unternehmen (VU) frühzeitig erkennen und Optionen zur Beseitigung dieser Defizite anbieten soll. Bestandteile dieser Plattform sind web-basierte adaptive Fragebögen und ein elektronisches Kommunikationstagebuch. Neben der Darstellung von Anforderungen an diese Softwarewerkzeuge erfolgt eine konzeptionelle Beschreibung ihrer Funktionsweise. Die Entwicklung des Frühwarnsystems erfolgt im Rahmen des interdisziplinären Projekts @VirtU [1]. Der Fokus der Forschungsarbeiten liegt dabei u. a. auf der Betrachtung von Motivationsfaktoren für die Teamarbeit, der Teamkommunikation und dem Informationsaustausch zwischen den Partnern in einem VU. Im Rahmen von @VirtU werden VU als eine Kooperationsform voneinander unabhängiger Wertschöpfungseinheiten angesehen, in welcher das Managementprinzip der „virtual organization“ (vgl. Mowshowitz [2]) umgesetzt wird. Gegenstand des zu entwickelnden Frühwarnsystems sind VU im engeren Sinne, d. h. die Missionsnetzwerke, in denen der Wertschöpfungsprozess stattfindet (vgl. Neumann, Meyer [3] in diesem Band).

This diploma thesis deals with the topic of Early Warning Systems (EWS), a key part of conflict prevention. It applies a model of quantitative analysis of international media outputs on the case of the Mali insurgency in January 2012. As an EWS tool, it analyzes international media represented by the major global press agencies. The main goal of the thesis is to answer the following research question: Did the international media manage to anticipate the outbreak of the conflict in Mali? The answer should also show whether international media can detect growing tensions leading to a conflict and therefore whether they could be used as an EWS tool. The application of the model should, observing the period from August 2011 to the beginning of the insurgency on January 17, 2012, prove whether the conflict could have been anticipated. In order to contextualize the model, structural factors of instability were identified in the discussion of the dynamics of the conflict that has been repeating itself for dozens of years. A discourse analysis of international media during the observed period was also presented on the background of the securitization theory of the Copenhagen school of security studies. The discourse analysis and the quantitative EWS model have both shown that international media have not...

Climate change affects Sweden by causing mild winters and increased precipitation during the winter season. This will affect the risk for flooding in areas close to water. Flood warnings mean to mitigate and prevent damages that may occur due to flooding.  The purpose of this study is to research how Swedish municipalities and county administrations communicate flood risks and risk preparedness with each other and the Swedish meteorological and hydrological institute (SMHI) to avoid damages. The study also researches how a consequence based early warning system affects the communication and preparedness for flood risks between municipalities, county administrations and SMHI. The subjects of the study are four municipalities and two county administrations that have a significant risk of flooding around the lake Vänern. The methods used are semi-structured interviews for data collection and qualitative data analysis. The result is discussed in relationship to the theoretical frameworks risk governance, risk society and risk communication.  The results of the study show that there is a difference between how municipalities and county administrations perceive the communication between them and SMHI which is the official source of weather-related warnings in Sweden. The relationship between the municipalities and county administrations is mostly good while the relationship between municipalities and SMHI is less so. The communication between county administrations and SMHI is better than that between SMHI and the municipalities. The county administrations believe a new, consequence based early warning system may have a positive impact on the communication between the stakeholders while the municipalities believe the impact will be small or none. The municipalities and county administrations agree that a consequence based early warning system will have a positive effect on the preparedness for floods. / Klimatförändringarna påverkar Sverige med mildare vintrar och en ökad nederbörd under vinterhalvåret som kommer påverka översvämningsrisken i vattennära områden. Översvämningsvarningar är en åtgärd för att mildra och förebygga skador som kan uppstå till följd av höga vattenflöden, höga vattennivåer och skyfall. Studiens syfte är att undersöka hur kommuner och länsstyrelser kommunicerar med varandra och med Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut (SMHI) om översvämningsrisker och beredskap för att anpassa och undvika skador. Studien undersöker även hur ett konsekvensbaserat varningssystem påverkar översvämningsberedskap och kommunikation mellan kommuner, länsstyrelser och SMHI. Undersökningens urval består av fyra kommuner och två länsstyrelser med utpekad översvämningsrisk i området kring Vänern. I studien används metoderna semi-strukturerad intervju och kvalitativ innehållsanalys som datainsamlings- och analysmetoder och dess resultat diskuteras utifrån de teoretiska ramverken om riskstyrning, risksamhället och riskkommunikation.  Resultatet pekar mot att det finns en dissonans mellan kommuner och länsstyrelsers uppfattning av den kommunikation som bedrivs mellan dem och SMHI som utfärdar vädervarningar i Sverige. Kommunernas relation till länsstyrelserna är mestadels god medan deras relation till SMHI är mindre god. Kommunikationen mellan Länsstyrelse och SMHI är bättre än den mellan kommun och SMHI. Kommunerna upplever inte att ett konsekvensbaserat varningssystem kommer påverka kommunikationen mellan dem, länsstyrelserna och SMHI. Länsstyrelserna tror däremot att den nya kommunikationskedja som följer med det konsekvensbaserade varningssystemet kan ha en positiv effekt på kommunikationen. Både kommuner och länsstyrelser anser att ett konsekvensbaserat varningssystem kan påverka översvämningsberedskapen positivt.

Yes / Modern early warning system (EWS) requires sophisticated knowledge of the natural hazards, the urban context and underlying risk factors to enable dynamic and timely decision making (e.g., hazard detection, hazard preparedness). Landslides are a common form of natural hazard with a global impact and closely linked to a variety of other hazards. EWS for landslides prediction and detection relies on scientific methods and models which requires input from the time series data, such as the earth observation (EO) and urban environment data. Such data sets are produced by a variety of remote sensing satellites and Internet of things sensors which are deployed in the landslide prone areas. To this end, the automatic discovery of potential time series data sources has become a challenge due to the complexity and high variety of data sources. To solve this hard research problem, in this paper, we propose a novel ontology, namely Landslip Ontology, to provide the knowledge base that establishes relationship between landslide hazard and EO and urban data sources. The purpose of Landslip Ontology is to facilitate time series data source discovery for the verification and prediction of landslide hazards. The ontology is evaluated based on scenarios and competency questions to verify the coverage and consistency. Moreover, the ontology can also be used to realize the implementation of data sources discovery system which is an essential component in EWS that needs to manage (store, search, process) rich information from heterogeneous data sources.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第24173号 / 理博第4864号 / 新制||理||1696(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 藤 浩明, 教授 吉川 裕, 教授 石岡 圭一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

No description available.

No / Early warning systems (EWS) for electrical grid infrastructure have played a significant role in the efficient management of electricity supply in natural hazard prone areas. Modern EWS rely on scientific methods to analyze a variety of Earth Observation and ancillary data provided by multiple and heterogeneous data sources for the monitoring of electrical grid infrastructure. Furthermore, through cooperation, EWS for natural hazards contribute to monitoring by reporting hazard events that are associated with a particular electrical grid network. Additionally, sophisticated domain knowledge of natural hazards and electrical grid is also required to enable dynamic and timely decision‐making about the management of electrical grid infrastructure in serious hazards. In this paper, we propose a data integration and analytics system that enables an interaction between natural hazard EWS and electrical grid EWS to contribute to electrical grid network monitoring and support decision‐making for electrical grid infrastructure management. We prototype the system using landslides as an example natural hazard for the grid infrastructure monitoring. Essentially, the system consists of background knowledge about landslides as well as information about data sources to facilitate the process of data integration and analysis. Using the knowledge modeled, the prototype system can report the occurrence of landslides and suggest potential data sources for the electrical grid network monitoring. / FloodPrep, Grant/Award Number: (NE/P017134/1); LandSlip, Grant/Award Number: (NE/P000681/1)

Yes / Objectives: To develop a logistic regression model to predict the risk of sepsis following emergency medical admission using the patient’s first, routinely collected, electronically recorded vital signs and blood test results and to validate this novel computer-aided risk of sepsis model, using data from another hospital. Design: Cross-sectional model development and external validation study reporting the C-statistic based on a validated optimized algorithm to identify sepsis and severe sepsis (including septic shock) from administrative hospital databases using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition, codes. Setting: Two acute hospitals (York Hospital - development data; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital - external validation data). Patients: Adult emergency medical admissions discharged over a 24-month period with vital signs and blood test results recorded at admission. Interventions: None. Main Results: The prevalence of sepsis and severe sepsis was lower in York Hospital (18.5% = 4,861/2,6247; 5.3% = 1,387/2,6247) than Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital (25.1% = 7,773/30,996; 9.2% = 2,864/30,996). The mortality for sepsis (York Hospital: 14.5% = 704/4,861; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: 11.6% = 899/7,773) was lower than the mortality for severe sepsis (York Hospital: 29.0% = 402/1,387; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: 21.4% = 612/2,864). The C-statistic for computer-aided risk of sepsis in York Hospital (all sepsis 0.78; sepsis: 0.73; severe sepsis: 0.80) was similar in an external hospital setting (Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: all sepsis 0.79; sepsis: 0.70; severe sepsis: 0.81). A cutoff value of 0.2 gives reasonable performance. Conclusions: We have developed a novel, externally validated computer-aided risk of sepsis, with reasonably good performance for estimating the risk of sepsis for emergency medical admissions using the patient’s first, electronically recorded, vital signs and blood tests results. Since computer-aided risk of sepsis places no additional data collection burden on clinicians and is automated, it may now be carefully introduced and evaluated in hospitals with sufficient informatics infrastructure. / Health Foundation

Climate change, a reality, a myth, a conspiracy, remains a point of research and concern, specifically with regards to the impact it has on human health. Reports concerning climate change are accepted by many but are also rejected by prominent figures of society and powerful enterprises flourishing in the race for economic development. Yet all living organisms on Earth are dependent on its natural resources and delicate balance of co-existence. A disruption of ecological balance will bring about changes to biomes and niches. These changes will affect disease patterns and well-being for all. Vulnerable groups will be most affected. If these changes have occurred and continue to occur what provision should be made to reduce population vulnerability? What investment should be made to public healthcare to assist vulnerable population groups and improve adaptability? This study was conducted with the aide of the South African Red Cross Society in three large South African provinces, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Kwa-Zulu Natal, each known for its rich diverse ecologies and tropical to sub-tropical climates. The study aimed to determine the level of awareness amongst the healthcare workers with emphasis on education. The participants were counsellors working closely with the National Department of Health and local clinics. A total of 101 participants completed a close-ended questionnaire. The results indicated a strong workforce of young people with post-matric qualifications and strong views. Qualitative research was used with descriptive statistics to analyse and describe the data collected. It was, therefore, recommended that investment be made into this growing workforce in healthcare, as well as healthcare as a whole, since climate change, as documented, will threaten food security and water availability, see altered diseases patterns including emerging and re-emergence of infectious diseases and cardiovascular concerns brought on by heat stress. Funding must support education and training to strengthen awareness and preparedness so as to empower this workforce so that they may assist local populations to better adapt to the changes, become more resilient and, thereby, reduce their vulnerability and risk / Health Studies / M.Sc. (Life Sciences)

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-05-10T16:18:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Guilherme Wunsch_.pdf: 1561848 bytes, checksum: a76d1849547a47a7e7387c9be36d2f92 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-10T16:18:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Guilherme Wunsch_.pdf: 1561848 bytes, checksum: a76d1849547a47a7e7387c9be36d2f92 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-28 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Triagem é um processo realizado nos departamentos de emergência de hospitais que visa ordenar o atendimento dos pacientes de acordo com suas necessidades de cuidados. Por outro lado, um sistema de alerta precoce se trata de um protocolo empregado pelos hospitais para detectar a deterioração dos sinais vitais (gravidade) dos pacientes. Quando bem efetuados, esses processos podem potencialmente aumentar as chances de vida dos pacientes com alto grau de complicações, guiando seu tratamento e o correto diagnóstico. A mobilidade é uma necessidade por profissionais da área de saúde para desempenhar suas atividades diárias e isso vai ao encontro da ascensão da computação móvel e ubíqua. Dispositivos vestíveis e dispositivos inteligentesestão cada vez mais presentes no nosso cotidiano. Com isso, esse trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo computacional, denominado de UbiTriagem 2, para apoio ao processo triagem que suporta um sistema de alerta precoce, fazendo o uso dos conceitos da computação móvel e ubíqua e Internet das coisas voltados à área de saúde. A principal contribuição científica desse trabalho foi prever a interoperabilidade entre diferentes protocolos de triagem e de deterioração de sinais vitais (gravidade) empregados hoje nos hospitais fazendo o uso de uma ontologia. Além disso, outra preocupação foi agregar, também nessa ontologia, informações coletadas de diferentes sensores IoT (como fonte de dados) para inferir a triagem e a gravidade dos pacientes. O modelo foi avaliado através de cenários, que mostraram que o modelo está apto para ser utilizado em um departamento de emergência. Em relação à triagem, foi possível concluir que o modelo foi capaz de determinar corretamente a classificação do paciente em 93,33% das situações avaliadas e, com pequenos ajustes, atingimos 100% dos casos. O sistema de alerta precoce se mostrou assertivo em 86,71% dos casos, por outro lado podemos concluir que ele se assemelha muito à avaliação qualitativa efetuada por um médico regulador especialista em emergências. Além disso em 63,61% de todos os casos atendidos em um departamento de emergência, vindos do SAMU, poderiam ser beneficiados por esse modelo. Por fim, com a avaliação efetuada através da metodologia de grupo focal, podemos destacar como pontos positivo do modelo desenvolvido: a utilização de protocolos já validados; o acompanhamento das filas de atendimento; o uso de dispositivos móveis; a diminuição em erros na utilização dos protocolos; o uso de dispositivos vestíveis para o monitoramento dos pacientes; um modelo não-intrusivo; o auxílio no registro de dados do atendimento; um maior respaldo às decisões dos enfermeiros; a diminuição das taxas de mortalidade e de maiores complicações; e a diminuição no custo do atendimento por paciente. / Triage is a process performed in the emergency department of hospitals aimed at sorting the patients according to their needs of care. On the other hand, an early warning system is a protocol used by hospitals to detect the deterioration of patient’s vital signs. When well performed, these processes can potentially increase the chances of life of patients with a high degree of complications, guiding their treatment and the correct diagnosis. Mobility is a musthave requirement for healthcare professionals to perform their daily activities and this is in the same way with the rise of mobile and ubiquitous computing. Mobile and wearable devices are increasingly present in our daily lives. This study aims to develop a computational model, called UbiTriagem 2, to support the triage process, supporting an early warning system, using the concepts of mobile and ubiquitous computing and Internet of things related to healthcare. The main scientific contribution of this study was to propose the interoperability between different protocols of triage and deterioration of vital signs (severity) used today in hospitals using an ontology. In addition, another concern was to aggregate, also in the ontology, information collected from different IoT sensors (as data source) to infer the triage and severity of patients. The model was evaluated through scenarios, which showed that the model is apt to be used in an emergency department. In relation to the triage, it was possible to conclude that the model was able to correctly determine the patient’s classification in 93.33% of the evaluated situations and, with minor adjustments, reached 100% of the cases. The early warning system was assertive in 86.71% of the cases, on the other hand we can conclude that it closely resembles the qualitative evaluation carried out by an emergency medical regulator. In addition, 63.61% of all cases from SAMU in the emergency department could benefit from this model. Finally, with the evaluation made through the focus group methodology, we can highlight as positive points of the developed model: the use of already validated protocols; the follow-up of the service queues; the use of mobile devices; the decrease in errors in the use of protocols; the use of wearable devices to monitor patients; a non-intrusive model; the aid in recording attendance data; greater support for nurses’ decisions; the reduction of mortality rates and major complications; and the decrease in the cost of care per patient.