Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Benennung von Anforderungen an eine IT-basierte Forschungs-und Betriebsplattform zur Unterstützung eines Frühwarnsystems, welches Defizite bei der Zusammenarbeit und Kommunikation von Kooperationspartnern in virtuellen Unternehmen (VU) frühzeitig erkennen und Optionen zur Beseitigung dieser Defizite anbieten soll. Bestandteile dieser Plattform sind web-basierte adaptive Fragebögen und ein elektronisches Kommunikationstagebuch. Neben der Darstellung von Anforderungen an diese Softwarewerkzeuge erfolgt eine konzeptionelle Beschreibung ihrer Funktionsweise. Die Entwicklung des Frühwarnsystems erfolgt im Rahmen des interdisziplinären Projekts @VirtU [1]. Der Fokus der Forschungsarbeiten liegt dabei u. a. auf der Betrachtung von Motivationsfaktoren für die Teamarbeit, der Teamkommunikation und dem Informationsaustausch zwischen den Partnern in einem VU. Im Rahmen von @VirtU werden VU als eine Kooperationsform voneinander unabhängiger Wertschöpfungseinheiten angesehen, in welcher das Managementprinzip der „virtual organization“ (vgl. Mowshowitz [2]) umgesetzt wird. Gegenstand des zu entwickelnden Frühwarnsystems sind VU im engeren Sinne, d. h. die Missionsnetzwerke, in denen der Wertschöpfungsprozess stattfindet (vgl. Neumann, Meyer [3] in diesem Band).

This essay studies the national parliaments' reasoned opinions at the early warning mechanism. The study aim to declare if there is any variation in which national parliaments who is active in the early warning mechanism, and if there is a variation in type of bills in the early warning mechanism. These study also wants to describe some variation in how the national parliaments argued in the reasoned opinions. The study gives an enhanced understanding of the importance and legitimacy of the early warning mechanism and the reasoned opinions. The result shows that there is a certain group of parliaments who are more active and these are with few exceptions EU 15 countries. The study also shows that there is some kind of bills that is more prevalent than others, there is however some variation. There is also a wide variation in the arguments raised in the reasoned opinions. The results indicate that the national parliaments varies greatly in managing the reasoned opinions and it gives a negatively impacton the early warning mechanism. / Studien granskar de nationella parlamentens motiverade yttranden inom ramen för EU:s subsidiaritetsgranskning. Studiens syfte är att beskriva en möjlig variation angående  vilka nationella parlamenten som är aktiva inom subsidiaritetsgranskningen. Studiens syfte är även att beskriva variationen i vilka lagförslag som återfinns i subsidiaritetsgrankningen, samt om de nationella parlamenten varierar i  argumentering i de motiverade yttrandena. Studien visar att det finns nationella parlament som är vanligare förekommande inom granskningen, samt att vissa typer av lagförslag föranleder fler yttranden än andra. Beträffande argumenteringen i de motiverade yttrandena fanns en stor variation.

Water is one of the most precious but least valued common property resource. Efficient ways of water resources management are vital to socio-economic development and the overall feat of societal stability. However, water conflicts have further exacerbated the access to water especially in low-income developing countries. Most notably, little attention has been given to studying water conflicts at the local level when compared to international water conflicts. As a result, there is insufficient information and theory on the exponentially increasing number of local water conflicts. In the Middle East, water was a tool for military purposes; in Asia disputes over water occur due to development-related activities, whilst in Africa, control over water resources has been the root cause of many conflicts affecting millions of vulnerable communities. This research investigates the nature, causes and dimensions of local water conflicts in the context of low-income developing countries based on the Afar region, which is located in the Awash Trans-regional River Basin of Ethiopia. The research suggests a new multidimensional approach for pre-identification, early warning services and local water conflict neutralization. This approach also introduces preparedness techniques, which play a significant role in reducing potential risks and tensions that trigger local water conflicts between communities sharing the same water resources. The study further proposes a policy guideline matrix that would serve as a technique for reducing local water conflicts by providing new ways of thinking about the links between sustainable developments, local water conflict management and strategic partnerships. The research is implemented through the process of designing a framework based on essential theoretical and practical findings supported by survey data of 134 household representatives of local communities and 26 institutions, together with 22 interviews. The introduced multipurpose framework is based on five fundamental parameters, namely: contribution to Sustainable Development, Information, Preparedness, Tolerance Capacity and Interaction (DIPTI). The research proposes the Sparkling Effects of Conflict , a new approach in understanding and predicting the coverage of the effects of conflicts other than the primary conflicting parties and conflict location. In addition, two pillars of the conceptual frameworks emerged from the findings. First, the WEC (Water, Early Warning and Conflict) information pyramid, a framework designed to indicate the core components of local WEC-related information identification and management. Second, the Pillars of Conflict Pyramid, the simplest conceptual framework, easily helps to pre-identify the effects of local water conflicts with certain limitations. Besides, the study addressed six additional conflict neutralization and resolution inputs that incorporate the significance of the participation of women and other vulnerable members of communities. These findings also highlight the advantage of co-existence between useful traditional and modern practices in neutralizing conflicts. Overall, the study will assist local people, policy and decision makers and institutions in low-income developing countries with a similar context to that of the study area.

<p>U ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji dat je predlog dizajna algoritma i metodologije za procenu indikatora suše &ndash; MEPIS. Istraživanje metoda praćenja suše obuhvatilo je tri tradicionalna indikatora i jedan novo formirani. Sve ukupno analizirano je 16 varijacija četiri odabrana indeksa suše period istraživanja obuhvatio je 62 godine, 1951-2012. Analize indikatora ukazale su na opravdanost menjanja pristupa pristupa problematici suše i odstupanja od stohastičkog razmatranja njene pojave i pristupanja termodinamičkim osnovama suše. Modelovanje suše po analogiji sa procesom sušenja vazduhom pokazalo je zadovoljavajuće rezultate i kao agregat ovog pristupa dobijen je IDEA indeks za praćenje uslova koji pogoduju suši. Kao indeks suše koji se striktno bazira na simulaciji fizičkih procesa ukazuje na mogućnost definisanja fizičkog stanja atmosfere koji odgovara stanju suše i korak je ka uniformnoj fizičkoj definiciji suše na osnovu uslova koji je uzrokuju. MEPIS u svojoj punoj formi bi dao dovoljno argumenata da se određeni indeksi koriste operativno i mogao bi opravdati neophodne investicije u tehničke i ljudske resurse.</p> / <p>In this doctoral dissertation have been proposed the designs of the algorithm and<br />methodology for drought indicator assessment &ndash;MEPIS. Methods of drought<br />monitoring were assessed. Three traditional drought indicators and one newly<br />developed were investigated. In total 16 variations of four selected drought indicators<br />were analyzed. Research covered period of 62 years, from 1951-2012. Analyses have<br />resulted with justification that approach to the drought problem should be changed<br />from stochastic to the one based on thermodynamics of drought. Modelling of drought<br />in analogy with air drying has shown satisfactory results and as an aggregate of this<br />approach was obtained IDEA drought indicator. Developed indicator showed<br />significant progress in identifying meteorological conditions that favor the development<br />of drought. It proves it is possible to define physical conditions that correspond to the<br />state of drought. It is step forward to uniform definition of drought phenomena. MEPIS<br />in its full form would give enough arguments to make decision about usage of tested<br />drought indicators and could justify the necessary investments in the technical and<br />human resources.</p>

Organisations such as governments and healthcare bodies are increasingly responsible for managing large amounts of personal information, and the increasing complexity of modern information systems is causing growing concerns about the protection of these assets from insider threats. Insider threats are very difficult to handle, because the insiders have direct access to information and are trusted by their organisations. The nature of insider privacy breaches varies with the organisation’s acceptable usage policy and the attributes of an insider. However, the level of risk that insiders pose depends on insider breach scenarios including their access patterns and contextual information, such as timing of access. Protection from insider threats is a newly emerging research area, and thus, only few approaches are available that systemise the continuous monitoring of dynamic insider usage characteristics and adaptation depending on the level of risk. The aim of this research is to develop a formal framework for an adaptive early warning and response system for insider privacy breaches within dynamic software systems. This framework will allow the specification of multiple policies at different risk levels, depending on event patterns, timing constraints, and the enforcement of adaptive response actions, to interrupt insider activity. Our framework is based on Usage Control (UCON), a comprehensive model that controls previous, ongoing, and subsequent resource usage. We extend UCON to include interrupt policy decisions, in which multiple policy decisions can be expressed at different risk levels. In particular, interrupt policy decisions can be dynamically adapted upon the occurrence of an event or over time. We propose a computational model that represents the concurrent behaviour of an adaptive early warning and response system in the form of statechart. In addition, we propose a Privacy Breach Specification Language (PBSL) based on this computational model, in which event patterns, timing constraints, and the triggered early warning level are expressed in the form of policy rules. The main features of PBSL are its expressiveness, simplicity, practicality, and formal semantics. The formal semantics of the PBSL, together with a model of the mechanisms enforcing the policies, is given in an operational style. Enforcement mechanisms, which are defined by the outcomes of the policy rules, influence the system state by mutually interacting between the policy rules and the system behaviour. We demonstrate the use of this PBSL with a case study from the e-government domain that includes some real-world insider breach scenarios. The formal framework utilises a tool that supports the animation of the enforcement and policy models. This tool also supports the model checking used to formally verify the safety and progress properties of the system over the policy and the enforcement specifications.

Background: HIV drug resistance is presumed to be inevitable due to the error-prone nature of the virus. However, poor adherence to the antiretroviral drugs is proven to be an impending factor for HIV drug resistance development. Of these two explanations, which is the most common reason for HIV drug resistance?Method: A total of 40 published studies about HIV drug resistance, were retrospectively collected in Pubmed (May 2017), from 36 different countries for this paper. From each study was participants, percentage of HIV drug resistance and HIV-1 subtype extracted for analysis. All studies were than classified by either high-income, middle-income or low-income, based on a country income status, defined by the World Bank. HIV drug resistance was tested against: continents, HIV-1 subtypes, number of study participants, income levels, GDP per capita and EWI’s. All statistical analysis was performed in R: The R project for statistical computing.Result: This paper show, that HIV drug resistance primarily is caused by poor adherence which is closely associated with drug stock out. Highest HIV drug resistance levels was found in middle-income countries. However, number of participants enrolled per study was important for the outcome and this indicates that HIV drug resistance would be higher in low-income countries if larger studied had been carried out in these settings. This means that there is a large unrecorded prevalence of HIV drug resistance in low-income countries.

Hundreds of thousands of landslides occur every year around the world impacting on people's lives. Monitoring techniques able to foresee imminent collapse and provide a warning in time useful for action to be taken are essential for risk reduction and disaster prevention. Acoustic emission (AE) is generated in soil and rock materials by rearrangement of particles during displacement or increasing damage in the microstructure preceding a collapse; therefore AE is appropriate for estimation of slope deformation. To overcome the high attenuation that characterise geological materials and thus to be able to monitor AE activity, a system called Slope ALARMS that makes use of a waveguide to transmit AE waves from a deforming zone to a piezoelectric transducer was developed. The system quantifies acoustic activity as Ring Down Count (RDC) rates. In soil applications RDC rates have been correlated with the rate of deformation, however, the application to rock slopes poses new challenges over the significance of the measured AE trends, requiring new interpretation strategies. In order to develop new approaches to interpret acoustic emission rates measured within rock slopes, the system was installed at two trial sites in Italy and Austria. RDC rates from these sites, which have been measured over 6 and 2.5 years respectively, are analysed and clear and recurring trends were identified. The comparison of AE trends with response from a series of traditional instruments available at the sites allowed correlation with changes in external slope loading and internal stress changes. AE signatures from the limestone slope at the Italian site have been identified as generated in response to variations in the groundwater level and snow loading. At the conglomerate slope in Austria, AE signatures include the detachment of small boulders from the slope surface caused by the succession of freeze-thaw cycles during winter time. Consideration was also given to laboratory testing of specific system elements and field experiments. A framework towards strategies to interpret measured acoustic emission trends is provided for the use of the system within rock slopes.

No description available.

Introduction: A recent study at the acute admission unit (AAU), revealed that 13.5 percent ofall patients discharged from the department, were readmitted within 30 days during 2018. Inthe group of 80 years and above, the cause for re-admission was multifactorial. Aim: To identify factors that are associated with unplanned re-admission, palliative decision,or death within 30 days after discharge from the AAU, in patients of 80 years or above. Anotheraim is to examine if longer hospital stay, patient discharge planning and fast follow-up canprotect against these outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cohort study comprising 287 patients. Data on age, sex, length ofstay, comorbidities (Elixhauser comorbidity index), frailty (Clinical frailty scale), NationalEarly Warning Score (NEWS), social status, home care, lab values and outcome were collected.All variables were analyzed using Chi-square test with univariate and multivariate logisticregression, and a p-value &lt; 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: 276 patients were included. A NEWS ≥ 3 was associated with significantly increasedrisk for poor outcome (odds ratio 2.4). Living with someone without municipal support wasassociated with a significantly decreased risk for poor outcome (odds ratio 0.21). Conclusions: The results indicate that it is crucial to stabilize patients of 80 years or abovebefore discharge. And that living with someone without municipal support is a protective factor.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22125号 / 工博第4655号 / 新制||工||1726(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 渦岡 良介, 教授 角 哲也, 准教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM