京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(理学) / 乙第13375号 / 論理博第1574号 / 新制||理||1666(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科 / (主査)教授 飯尾 能久, 教授 岩田 知孝, 教授 久家 慶子 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

In the course of past decades, the African Union has sought to strengthen continental security integration and joint governance, wherefore many early warning and security institutions emerged. However, little research has been done to explore the institutional landscape. This thesis aims to bridge the literacy gaps and investigate the ways African early warning institutions constitute challenges or prospects to security integration efforts. The continental level evaluates how integration is affected through various African early warning institutions. The regional level analyses how early warning institutions' methodologies influence sub-regional integration efforts. Lastly, the national level elaborates why African national intelligence and security sectors are determined by authoritarian governance. Similar to the three (continental, regional, national) research questions, this thesis is divided into three levels of analysis. First, the continental level evaluates the Continental Early Warning Systems' institutional struggle with its Regional Early Warning Systems and other organisations within and beyond the African Peace and Security Architecture. Second, the regional level examines the concepts and methodologies behind the six Regional Early Warning Systems for common features and differences....

Introduktion: Minskat antal vårdplatser och en ökad ålder på befolkningen gör att trycket på vården ökar. I takt med detta ökar också risken för att patientsäkerheten inte kan upprätthållas. NEWS är ett bedömnings- och screeninginstrument var syfte är att öka patientsäkerheten genom att standardisera bedömningar av vitala parametrar för att effektivt kunna förhindra kritiska tillstånd. Sjuksköterskor kan använda NEWS tillsammans med sin kliniska bedömning för att utföra en adekvat bedömning av patienters aktuella hälsotillstånd. Syfte: Litteraturstudiens syfte var att undersöka sjuksköterskors erfarenhet av att använda National Early Warning Score som bedömningsinstrument för att bedöma patienters hälsostatus. Metod: Litteraturstudien bygger på Polit och Becks (2017) nio steg med induktiv ansats. Relevanta sökord mot syftet identifierades och systematiska artikelsökningar genomfördes i Cinahl och PubMed. Sökningarna resulterade i 11 artiklar relevanta för studien som kvalitetsgranskades utifrån Polit och Becks (2017) granskningsmallar. I databearbetningen framkom tre teman. Resultat: Tre teman framkom utifrån sjuksköterskors erfarenhet av att använda NEWS som bedömningsinstrument för att bedöma patienters hälsostatus, dessa var NEWS som stöd och hinder i klinisk bedömning, NEWS påverkan på arbetsbelastningen, samt hur sjuksköterskors utbildning och yrkeserfarenhet kunde kombineras med NEWS. Resultatet visade att NEWS är ett bra stöd till sjuksköterskors kliniska bedömning. Detta stödjer främst sjuksköterskor med kortare erfarenhet, men kan ändå vara ett bra stöd till sjuksköterskor med längre erfarenhet. Slutsats: Erfarna sjuksköterskor ansåg att sjuksköterskor med kortare erfarenhet än de själva kan behöva stöd i sin kliniska helhetsbedömning samt kommunikation, och då är NEWS ett bra komplement. Sjuksköterskorna i litteraturstudien var inte enade om arbetsbelastningen ökade eller inte vid användandet av NEWS.

Using an early warning system (EWS) methodology, this thesis analyses the predictability of stock market crises from the perspective of behavioural fnance. Specifcally, in our EWS based on the multinomial logit model, we consider in- vestor sentiment as one of the potential crisis indicators. Identifcation of the relevant crisis indicators is based on Bayesian model averaging. The empir- ical results reveal that price-earnings ratio, short-term interest rate, current account, credit growth, as well as investor sentiment proxies are the most rele- vant indicators for anticipating stock market crises within a one-year horizon. Our thesis hence provides evidence that investor sentiment proxies should be a part of the routinely considered variables in the EWS literature. In general, the predictive power of our EWS model as evaluated by both in-sample and out-of-sample performance is promising. JEL Classifcation G01, G02, G17, G41 Keywords Stock market crises, Early warning system, In- vestor sentiment, Crisis prediction, Bayesian model averaging Title Predicting stock market crises using investor sentiment indicators

This diploma thesis provides a fact-based examination of the relevance of assumptions concerning the relationship of human insecurity and the emergence of conflict. This is done with a quantitative analysis of cross-country data on human insecurity and conflict during the period of 1990 - 2010. The approach of the thesis steps beyond the prevailing discussions on human security focused on normative judgements on the nature, legitimacy or applicability of the concept. Through a statistical analysis, it challenges the use of uncontested and ungraspable, yet influential, narratives of human security that result in implementation of inadequately informed programs and policies aimed at prevention of conflict by the international community and other actors. The analysis finds that a random set of indicators of human security, rather than human security as a concept, are related to conflict emergence. As a result, the thesis suggests surpassing the preoccupation with the use and application of the concept and instead accentuates inductive approach to formulating evidence-based conflict-prevention programs inspired by the ideas of human security rather than reasoned by the concept of human security. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

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京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第20346号 / 工博第4283号 / 新制||工||1663(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 清野 純史, 教授 高橋 良和, 准教授 古川 愛子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Project schedules should mirror the project, as the project takes place. Accurate project schedules, when updated and revised, reflect the actual progress of construction as performed in the field. Various methods for monitoring progress of construction are successful in their representation of actual construction as it takes place. Progress monitoring techniques clearly identify when we are behind schedule, yet it is less obvious to recognize when we are going to slip behind schedule. This research explores how schedule performance measurement mechanisms are used to recognize construction projects that may potentially slip behind schedule, as well as what type of early warning they provide in order to take corrective action. Such early warning systems help prevent situations where the contractor and/or owner are in denial for a number of months that a possible catastrophe of a project is going to finish on time. This research develops the intellectual framework for schedule control systems, based on a review of control systems in the construction industry. The framework forms the foundation for the development of a schedule control technique for forecasting schedule slippage — the Required Performance Method (RPM). The RPM forecasts the required performance needed for timely project completion, and is based on the contractor's ability to expand future work. The RPM is a paradigm shift from control based on scheduled completion date to control based on required performance. This shift enables forecasts to express concern in terms that are more tangible. Furthermore, the shift represents a focus on what needs to be done to achieve a target completion date, as opposed to the traditional focus on what has been done. The RPM is demonstrated through a case study, revealing its ability to forecast impending schedule slippage. / Master of Science

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There is much debate among genocide scholars as to the causes and even accurate definitions of genocide. Early warning developed to address the increasing need for humanitarian intervention in violent conflicts around the world. As a subset of genocide studies, early warning seeks to go beyond explaining the causes of genocide. The early warning model created here uses six indicator variables - government, leaders/elites, followers, non-followers/bystanders, outsider group, and environment - to detect the likelihood of genocide within a given case study. Four cases were chosen - Kenya, Nigeria, Yemen, and Ethiopia - and analyzed using the indicator variables to determine if these violent conflicts may already be or may become genocides. Preliminary findings show that the civilian outsider group is a vital component when determining whether or not a conflict is or may become a "limited-genocide" and that genocides are a function of the interaction of the six indicator variables and not just their presence. Other implications for sovereignty and humanitarian intervention are discussed.