The seismic behavior of port container cranes has been largely ignored-by owners, operators, engineers, and code officials alike. This is despite their importance to daily port operations, where historical evidence suggests that port operational downtime following a seismic event can have a crippling effect on the affected local, regional, and national economies. Because the replacement time in the event of crane collapse can be a year or more, crane collapse has the potential to be the "critical path" for post-disaster port recovery. Since the 1960's, crane designers allowed and encouraged an uplift response from container cranes, assuming that this uplift would provide a "safety valve" for seismic loading; i.e. the structural response at the onset of uplift was assumed to be the maximum structural response. However, cranes have grown much larger and more stable such that the port industry is now beginning to question the seismic performance of their modern jumbo container cranes. This research takes a step back, and reconsiders the effect that uplift response has on the seismic demand of portal-frame structures such as container cranes. A theoretical estimation is derived which accounts for the uplift behavior, and finds that the "safety valve" design assumption can be unconservative. The resulting portal uplift theory is verified with complex finite element models and experimental shake-table testing of a scaled example container crane. Using the verified models, fragility curves and downtime estimates are developed which characterize the risk of crane damage and operational downtime for three representative container cranes subjected to a range of earthquakes. This research demonstrates that container cranes designed using previous and current standards can significantly contribute to port seismic vulnerability. Lastly, performance-based design recommendations are provided which encourage the comparison of demand and capacity in terms of the critical portal deformation, using the derived portal uplift theory to estimate seismic deformation demand.

Serving as critical gateways for international trade, seaports are pivotal elements in transportation networks. Any disruption in the activities of port infrastructures may lead to significant losses from secondary economic effects, and can hamper the response and recovery efforts following a natural disaster. Particularly poignant examples which revealed the significance of port operations were the 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2010 Haiti earthquake in which liquefaction and lateral spreading of embankments imposed severe damage to both structural and non-structural components of ports. Since container wharf structures are responsible for loading and unloading of cargo, it is essential to understand the performance of these structures during earthquakes. Although previous studies have provided insight into some aspects of the seismic response of wharves, limitations in the modeling of wharf structures and the surrounding soil media have constrained the understanding of various features of the wharf response. This research provides new insights into the seismic behavior of wharves by using new and advanced structure and soil modeling procedures to carry out two and three-dimensional seismic analyses of a pile-supported marginal wharf structure in liquefiable soils. Furthermore, this research investigates the interaction between cranes and wharves and closely assesses the role of wharf-crane interaction on the response of each of these systems. For this purpose, the specific effect of wharf-crane interaction is studied by incorporating advanced models of the crane with sliding/uplift base conditions. To reduce the computational time required for three-dimensional nonlinear dynamic analysis of the wharf in order to be applicable for probabilistic seismic demand analysis, a simplified wharf model and an analysis technique are introduced and verified. In the next step probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs) are generated by imposing the wharf models to a suit of ground deformations of the soil embankment and pore water pressure generated for this study through free-field analysis. Convolving PSDMs and the limit states, a set of fragility curves are developed for critical wharf components whose damage induces a disruption in the normal operation of ports. The developed fragility curves provide decision makers with essential tools for maximizing investment in wharf retrofit and fill a major gap in seismic risk assessment of seaports which can be used to assess the regional impact of the damage to wharves during a natural hazard event.

Earthquakes are among the most devastating and unpredictable of natural hazards that affect civil infrastructure and have the potential for causing numerous casualties and significant economic losses over large areas. Every region that has the potential for great earthquakes should have an integrated plan for a seismic design and risk mitigation for civil infrastructure. This plan should include methods for estimating the vulnerability of building inventories and for forecasting economic losses resulting from future events. This study describes a methodology to assess risk to distributed civil infrastructure due to large-scale natural hazards with large geographical footprints, such as earthquakes, hurricanes and floods, and provides a detailed analysis and assessment of building losses due to earthquake. The distinguishing feature of this research, in contrast to previous loss estimation methods incorporated in systems such as HAZUS-MH, is that it considers the correlation in stochastic demand on building inventories due to the hazard, as well as correlation in building response and damage due to common materials, construction technologies, codes and code enforcement. These sources of correlation have been neglected, for the most part, in previous research. The present study has revealed that the neglect of these sources of correlation leads to an underestimation of the estimates of variance in loss and in the probable maximum loss (PML) used as a basis for underwriting risks. The methodology is illustrated with a seismic risk assessment of building inventories representing different occupancy classes in Shelby County, TN, considering both scenario earthquakes and earthquakes specified probabilistically. It is shown that losses to building inventories estimated under the common assumption that the individual losses can be treated as statistically independent may underestimate the PML by a factor of range from 1.7 to 3.0, depending on which structural and nonstructural elements are included in the assessment. A sensitivity analysis reveals the statistics and sources of correlation that are most significant for loss estimation, and points the way forward for supporting data acquisition and synthesis.

The process of modeling earthquake hazard risk and vulnerability is a prime component of mitigation planning, but is rife with epistemic, aleatory and factual uncertainty. Reducing uncertainty in such models yields significant benefits, both in terms of extending knowledge and increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of mitigation planning. An accurate description of the built environment as an input into loss estimation would reduce factual uncertainty in the modeling process. Building attributes for earthquake loss estimation and risk assessment modeling were identified. Three modules for developing the building attributes were proposed, including structure classification, building footprint recognition and building valuation. Data from primary sources and field surveys were collected from Shelby County, Tennessee, for calibration and validation of the structure type models and for estimation of various components of building value. Building footprint libraries were generated for implementation of algorithms to programmatically recognize two-dimensional building configurations. The modules were implemented to produce a building inventory for Shelby County, Tennessee that may be used effectively in loss estimation modeling. Validation of the building inventory demonstrates effectively that advanced technologies and methods may be effectively and innovatively applied on combinations of primary and derived data and replicated in order to produce a bottom-up, reliable, accurate and cost-effective building inventory.

[Truncated abstract] A number of controlled and natural seismic sources are utilised to model the Pwave velocity structure of the southwest of the Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. The Yilgarn Craton is one of the largest pieces of Archaean crust in the world and is known for its gold and nickel deposits in the east and intraplate seismicity in the west. The aim of the project is to link 2D and 3D models of variations in seismic velocity with the local seismicity and geology. A new set of seismic refraction data, acquired in 25 overlapping deployments between 2002 and 2005, has been processed, picked and analysed using forward modelling. The data comprise two perpendicular traverses of three-component recordings of various delay-fired blasts from local commercial quarries. The data were processed using a variety of techniques. Tests were carried out on a number of data enhancement and picking procedures in order to determine the best method for enhancement of delay-fired data. A new method for automatic phase recognition is presented, where the maximum of the derivative of the rectilinearity of a trace is taken as the first break. Complete shot gathers with first break picks for each seismic source are compiled from the overlapping deployments. ... The starting 3D model was based on the models produced by 2D forward modelling. 14 iterations were carried out and the best-fit 3D model was achieved at the 10th iteration. It is 35% better then the current model used to locate earthquakes in this region. The resultant velocity block model was used to iii construct a density block model. A relative gravity map of the southwest of Yilgarn Craton was made. The results of 2D forward modelling, 3D tomography and forward gravity modelling have been compared and it was found that the HVZ is present in all models. Such a zone has been previously seen on a single seismic refraction profile, but it is the first time, this zone has been mapped in 3D. The gravity high produced by the zone coincides with the gravity high observed in reality. There is strong evidence that suggests that the HVZ forms part of the Archaean terrane boundary within the Yilgarn Craton. The distribution of the local seismicity was then discussed in the framework of the new 3D velocity model. A hypothesis, that the primary control on the seismicity in the study area is rotation of the major horizontal stress orientation, is presented. It is also argued that the secondary control on seismicity in the SWSZ is accommodation of movements along major faults.

[Truncated abstract] The southwest of Western Australia is an intraplate area classified as a stable continental region. It comprises predominantly Archaean and Proterozoic geology and has generally subdued topography. The region currently experiences significant seismicity in the Southwest Seismic Zone (SWSZ), which is one of the most seismically active areas in Australia and is thought to represent the highest seismic hazard of the region. In recent years, numerous scarps, potentially related to large palaeoearthquakes have been recognised not only within the SWSZ, but also in a broader region of the southwest of Australia. Palaeoseismological investigations of two of these scarps, the Dumbleyung and the Lort River scarps, confirm their association with surface-rupturing palaeoearthquakes and indicate events with likely maximum magnitudes of ~Mw 7.0 on faults of low to medium slip rates. Two trenches across the Dumbleyung Fault scarp revealed a thrust fault in alluvial sediments with two associated earthquakes in the last ca 24-60 ka. A possible Holocene age was recognised for the last recorded earthquake event exposed in these trenches. Two trenches across the Lort River Scarp show that this feature results from thrust faulting in the weathered gneissic country rock. These trenches exposed evidence of two events in the last ca 35 ka, with a likely late Pleistocene age for the last earthquake. On both sites, the earthquakes are interpreted as associated with the last phase of fault activity, which was likely been preceded by a long period of quiescence. Assessment of the earthquake hazard associated with large earthquakes at the Dumbleyung and Lort River Faults resulted in calculated peak ground accelerations of up to 2 g in the near-fault fields. Such earthquakes would significantly affect nearby towns such as Dumbleyung, Wagin, Katanning, and Esperance, but they are unlikely to cause any significant damage in Perth. The palaeoseismological investigations show that the earthquake activity in the southwest of Western Australia is not only confined to the SWSZ, as it has been considered in previous assessments of the seismic hazard, but that there is also potential for strong earthquakes across much of the region. The seismicity in the southwest of Western Australia appears to be transient and migratory. This is suggested by the lack of local relief associated with places of current seismicity and fault scarps, the widespread distribution of the fault scarps across the region, the increase in seismicity in the SWSZ following strong recent events, and the apparent long periods of earthquake recurrence at fault sites. Accordingly, the current seismicity in the SWSZ is inferred to be transient and probably associated with stress changes produced by the recent earthquakes. '...' This uplift could be associated with dynamic topography effects resulting from processes along the plate margins. The uplift is probably enhanced by a flexural response of the lithosphere to local differential loads and density contrast along the southern margin, a mechanism that may also help explain the occurrence of some earthquake activity. The results from this study, complemented by additional palaeoseismological studies must be included in future probabilistic assessments of the seismic hazard of the southwest of Western Australia.

Water distribution systems, electrical power transmission systems, and other civil infrastructure systems are essential to the smooth and stable operation of regional economies. Since the functions of such infrastructure systems often are inter-dependent, the systems sometimes suffer unforeseen functional disruptions. For example, the widespread power outage due to the malfunction of an electric power substation, which occurred in the northeastern United States and parts of Canada in August 2003, interrupted the supply of water to several communities, leading to inconvenience and economic losses. The sequence of such failures leading to widespread outages is referred to as a cascading failure. Assessing the vulnerability of communities to natural and man-made hazards should take the possibility of such failures into account. In seismic risk assessment, the risk to a facility or a building is generally specified by one of two basic approaches: through a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and a stipulated scenario earthquake (SE). A PSHA has been widely accepted as a basis for design and evaluation of individual buildings, bridges and other facilities. However, the vulnerability assessment of distributed infrastructure facilities requires a model of spatial intensity of earthquake ground motion. Since the ground motions from a PSHA represent an aggregation of earthquakes, they cannot model the spatial variation in intensity. On the other hand, when a SE-based analysis is used, the spatial correlation of seismic intensities must be properly evaluated. This study presents a new methodology for evaluating the functionality of an infrastructure system situated in a region of moderate seismicity considering functional interactions among the systems in the network, cascading failure, and spatial correlation of ground motion. The functional interactions among facilities in the systems are modeled by fault trees, and the impact of cascading failures on serviceability of a networked system is computed by a procedure from the field of operations research known as a shortest path algorithm. The upper and lower bound solutions to spatial correlation of seismic intensities over a region are obtained.