As técnicas utilizadas pelas empresas atualmente para a avaliação econômica dos projetos de investimento em condições de risco, com destaque para a análise de cenários, apresentam três importantes limitações: não fornecem o capital no risco, utilizam uma taxa mínima da atratividade (TMA) única para a empresa em seu todo, desprezando as particularidades de cada caso, e tratam o risco isoladamente, fora do contexto amplo da diversificação eficiente. Diante desse contexto, o presente estudo propôs a aplicação de três modelos originários do mercado de capitais: o valor no risco (VAR), o modelo de precificação dos ativos de capital (CAPM) e a teoria de precificação por arbitragem (APT). Os resultados obtidos mostram que tais modelos são capazes de: fornecer o capital no risco dos projetos de investimento (VAR), utilizar uma TMA própria, segundo as particularidades de cada projeto de investimento (CAPM e APT), e tratar o risco em projetos de investimento no contexto amplo da diversificação eficiente (VAR, CAPM e APT). / The techniques used now by the companies for the economic evaluation of the investment projects in risk conditions, with prominence for the analysis of sceneries, present three important limitations: they don\'t supply the capital in the risk, they use an attractiveness of minimum rate (TMA) only for the company in its whole, despising the particularities of each case, and they treat the risk separately, out of the wide context of the efficient diversification. Before of that context, the present study proposed the application of three original models of the market of capitais: the value at risk (VAR), the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the arbitrage pricing theory (APT). The obtained results showed that such models are capable of: to supply the capital in the risk of the investment projects (VAR), to use an own TMA, according to the particularities of each investment project (CAPM and APT), and to treat the risk in investment projects in the wide context of the efficient diversification (VAR, CAPM and APT).

Orientador: Saul Barisnik Suslick / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica e Instituto de Geociencias / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-12T11:52:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Abreu_CarlosAlexandreCamargode_D.pdf: 1504826 bytes, checksum: 4dbdfda550735292a851456660af35c0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: Esse trabalho propõe dois modelos de Opções Reais para avaliação econômica de projetos em águas profundas, considerando os efeitos das incertezas em relação ao preço do petróleo e ao processo de evolução tecnológica. Esses modelos são bastante úteis nesses tipos de aplicações, pois permitem estimar o impacto do avanço tecnológico em campos com reservas de petróleo desenvolvidas, mas que apresentam grandes níveis de incertezas, pois as tecnologias atualmente conhecidas não possibilitam o desenvolvimento da produção com viabilidade econômica. Os modelos desenvolvidos foram aplicados em estudos de casos em diferentes cenários tecnológicos e projetos de campos simulados. As incertezas relacionadas ao processo de evolução tecnológica impactam no valor dos custos operacionais do projeto, considerando que os preços seguem um Movimento Geométrico Browniano, representando sua evolução ao longo do tempo. No primeiro modelo proposto a tecnologia evolui de acordo com saltos aleatórios de melhoria de eficiências, enquanto que no segundo modelo a evolução da tecnologia comporta-se de acordo com uma função logística. Foi obtida solução analítica para o caso do primeiro modelo com uma variável estocástica. No segundo modelo foi utilizada o método numérico da Simulação de Monte Carlo, com duas variáveis estocásticas, resultando na estimativa do valor da opção de espera e do momento ótimo de investimento. / Abstract: This work proposes two Real Options models for economic evaluation of E&P projects located in deep-water. The models consider the effects of uncertainties related to the oil price and the process of technological evolution. These models are useful for undeveloped reserves of heavy oil in deep-water that depict a great level of uncertainty, as the available technologies do not support the economic feasibility of the production development of such fields. The effects of technology impact on operational costs, and prices are modeled using a Geometric Brownian Motion stochastic process. The first model supposes that technology evolution is modeled with random jumps representing gains in efficiency and uses only one stochastic variable, which are obtained through an analytical solution. The second model employs a logistic utility function to model the technological evolution process and a numerical procedure (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used as a solution, using two stochastic variables. The developed models estimate the waiting option values and the optimal timing for investment for the decision process. / Doutorado / Reservatórios e Gestão / Doutor em Ciências e Engenharia de Petróleo

Orientadores: Mara de Andrade Marinho, Jurandir Zullo Junior / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Agrícola / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-21T20:55:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Walter_MicheleKarinaCotta_D.pdf: 5601129 bytes, checksum: 5c0f3ea57b4369e0f0ec8123daabfa91 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: No estado do Rio Grande do Sul a deficiência hídrica associada às limitações da qualidade física dos solos tem comprometido o rendimento da cultura da soja, resultando na maioria das vezes em prejuízos econômicos ao produtor e degradação dos recursos naturais. Os objetivos deste estudo foram avaliar a aptidão edafoclimática de terras no RS ocupadas com sistemas de sucessão e de rotação de culturas (soja, trigo, milho, ervilhaca, aveia e sorgo), assim como analisar a viabilidade econômica da conversão dessas áreas em florestas, com geração de créditos de carbono. A adequação do uso atual das terras foi efetuada a partir da avaliação da aptidão agrícola das terras. A contabilização do estoque de carbono nas culturas agrícolas foi realizada de forma direta, por meio de coleta de dados em área experimental da Embrapa Trigo, em Passo Fundo (PF) - RS, e em áreas comerciais de grãos, em Frederico Westphalen (FW) - RS. O estoque de carbono florestal foi estimado considerando cenários simulados com Eucalyptus grandis e Pinus taeda L. usando o modelo de contabilização de carbono CO2Fix. A análise econômica foi conduzida aplicando-se os critérios de avaliação econômica VPL, TIR e B/C. Os resultados demonstraram que o uso atual da maioria das terras em PF (84%) é adequado e está de acordo com a aptidão agrícola. Entretanto, em FW cerca de 27% das terras estão sendo utilizadas acima da sua capacidade suporte. As áreas avaliadas em PF apresentaram maior capacidade de estocagem de carbono tanto nos cenários agrícolas quanto nos florestais. As terras em FW apresentaram alta incidência e susceptibilidade à degradação, principalmente por erosão. O cenário de cultivo de eucalipto com rotação de sete anos e três ciclos de corte, manejado para produção de madeira para celulose foi o que apresentou maior capacidade para geração de créditos de carbono. Dentre os cenários manejados para produção de madeira serrada, o cultivo do pinus com rotação de 21 anos e dois desbastes proporcionou o maior número de créditos de carbono. A análise econômica demonstrou maior viabilidade dos sistemas florestais comparativamente aos sistemas de sucessão de culturas trigo/soja e trigo/soja - trigo/soja - trigo/milho atualmente implantados nas áreas estudadas. A inclusão de créditos de carbono em projetos de conversão de áreas agrícolas em florestais pode resultar em aumento da rentabilidade em aproximadamente 14% para o cenário com pinus e 15% e 7% para o cenário com eucalipto manejado para serraria e celulose, respectivamente. Conclui-se que nas áreas estudas a conversão dos sistemas de sucessão e rotação de grãos em floresta de eucalipto ou pinus com a geração de créditos de carbono constitui alternativa viável para investimentos de médios e longos prazos / Abstract: In the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) - Brazil, water deficiency and poor physical soil quality decrease the soybean productivity and, in the majority of the cases, cause not only economic losses to the producer but also degradation of the natural resources. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the edaphoclimatic suitability of lands in RS occupied with succession systems and crop rotation (soybean, maize, wheat, vetch, oats and sorghum), as well as analyze the economic and environmental viability of converting these areas in forests, with the generation of carbon credits. The suitability of land use was assessed using the methodology "Avaliação da Aptidão Agrícola das Terras". The accounting of carbon stock in the crops was conducted in a direct way, by collecting data in the experimental area of Embrapa Wheat, in Passo Fundo (PF) - RS, and in commercial areas of grains in Frederico Westphalen (FW) - RS. The carbon stock was estimated in simulated forest scenarios with Eucalyptus grandis and Pinus taeda using the carbon accounting model CO2Fix. The economic analysis was conducted by applying the criteria of economic evaluation NPV, IRR, and B/C. The results showed that the current use of most land in PF (84%) is in accordance with its agricultural potential. However, in FW 27% of the land is being used above its carrying capacity. The evaluated areas in PF showed higher carbon storage capacity in agricultural and forest scenarios. The areas in FW showed a high incidence and susceptibility of environmental degradation, especially with regard to the risk of erosion. The scenario of growing Eucalyptus grandis with seven years of rotation and three cycles of cutting, managed for pulpwood production, showed the greatest capacity to generate carbon credits. Among the scenarios handled for sawn timber production, the cultivation of pinus with rotation of 21 years and two thinnings resulted in the highest number of carbon credits. The economic analysis showed higher viability of forest systems compared to systems of succession planting wheat / soybeans and wheat / soybean - wheat / soybean - wheat / maize currently deployed in the areas studied. The inclusion of carbon credits in projects for converting farmland into forest can result in increased profitability. It is approximately 14% for the scenario with Pinus taeda and 15% and 7% in the scenario with Eucalyptus grandis for sawn timber and pulp respectively. The conclusion is that in the areas studied the conversion of succession and rotation of grain into eucalyptus or pinus forest with the generation of carbon credits is a viable alternative to investments in medium and long term / Doutorado / Planejamento e Desenvolvimento Rural Sustentável / Doutor em Engenharia Agrícola

Current economic evaluations do not explicitly acknowledge that there are multiple decision points throughout the lifecycle of new health technologies which, in the presence of uncertainty and irreversible consequences of those decisions, influence value. Real options analysis (ROA) has been proposed to overcome these limitations. However, applications to date all assumed that decisions influencing the arrival of information are made by the same actors making the decisions on adoption. The aim of this thesis is to explicitly incorporate into health technology assessment (HTA) the impact of uncertainty on decision making about new health technologies in the presence of irreversibilities. I present a series of analyses comparing “traditional” economic evaluation methods to applications of ROA using the case study of drug-eluting stents (DES). The conventional application of ROA allowed for flexibility in decisions incorporating all economic consequences of changing decisions. Over and above uncertainty surrounding the current estimate of value, three major components contributing to the economic value of the new technology were assumed to also change over time. This type of analysis can be used to determine the optimal initial decision allowing for changes in decisions and the optimal timing for review. However, it assumes that new information will always be revealed, regardless of the original decision on adoption. To reflect the combined impact of coverage, pricing and research decisions in HTA and therefore to make information arrival endogenous, a more complex approach is suggested: a Real Options Game (ROG) combining ROA with a game theoretical approach. In the ROG the HTA body and the manufacturer are assumed to play a sequential, incomplete information game, where the manufacturer has control over the arrival of information. The manufacturer decides whether to submit evidence, reduce price and conduct more research, while the HTA body decides on adoption. The DES analysis modelled a series of decision points between 2005 and 2010, with decisions not depending on hindsight, but allowing for predicted changes in value, incorporating a drift in information and responses by the other party. Payoffs were estimated for both players using a probabilistic Markov model. Optimal strategies incorporating the impact of earlier decisions on research were determined. HTA is a dynamic and interactive process, therefore results of the ROA analyses sometimes suggested a different course of action compared to traditional analyses. The best decision may depend on predictions of how other parties will react, as well as likely evolution of the evidence base and the costs of decision reversal.

Economic evaluations and network meta-analyses (NMAs) are complex methodologies. Increasing their transparency and accessibility could enhance confidence in the legitimacy of policy decisions informed by these analyses. Four systematic reviews were conducted to understand policymakers’ informational needs and to determine what guidance researchers have on how to present economic evaluations and NMAs. Qualitative interviews were conducted with Canadian policymakers, i.e., knowledge users, to understand barriers and facilitators to using and communicating economic evaluations and NMAs and with individuals in international health technology assessment organizations, i.e. knowledge producers, to explore current approaches to communicating economic evaluations and NMAs. A toolkit for NMAs and economic evaluations was proposed based on an integrated review of these findings and guided by the Knowledge-to-Action framework. Examples of tools were developed and applied to an economic evaluation and NMA of osteoporosis therapies. Systematic reviews and qualitative interviews found that communication approaches that provide robust content, identify contextual factors relevant to policy decisions and enhance clarity were valued. Twelve tools were proposed that enhance communication, education and access to resources for policymakers. Two of these tools were developed: Economic Guidance for Researchers and NMA Guidance for Researchers.

Thesis is intent on economic analysis and risk analysis building technology, used at reducing energy costingness. Basic goal of this thesis is evaluating selection energy - saving building technology for concrete investment project at authority two principles. First principle is complying with time influence namely how in view of financial resources, so in view of price energy. Second principle is consequential complying with risk and uncertainties particular factors. In case of these thesis it means simulation crucial factors as a stochastic model. To these purposes will be used method Monte Carlo. Theoretical part of thesis be engaged in characterization economics analyses and risk analyses investment project. Information betray into theoretic parts will applied on concrete investment project, reconstruction residential building using energy - saving technology that contribute by to decrease energy costingness of all building. Fundamental of the investment project is reducing costs on heat a hot water. Goal of practical parts this thesis is give to data for decision making house owners about reconstruction house, regarding particular building technologies.

The aim of this diploma thesis is application of non market evaluation on particular example of public green in Prague 15 and considering the possibility of using this method by public sector. Decisions of public sector aren't often transparent and systematic, in this study is proposed, how such a decision would be going on, if it was based on economic theory. First part of this study is concentrated on typology of goods, theory of non market evaluation and choice of the method applied on a particular example of a public green. Analytical part of this study contains description of application of contingent evaluation that estimates willingness to pay for a preservation and improvement of a public green. The last part of the study contains discussion of possibility of using this method by public sector.

The master’s thesis is focused on the possibility of using biodegradable materials (animal manure, energy crops, crop waste) in a biogas plant. The first part deals with the mechanism of production of biogas. Described are factors which affect the production of biogas, its composition, properties, utilization and potential substrates. The next chapter deals with the technologies of biogas plants. The main part of the thesis is devoted to a proposal of a specific biogas plant in the Slovak Republic in the Novozámocký district. Included is the processing of design proposal, selection of components and proposal of the layout of biogas plant. The economic evaluation includes quantifying capital and operating costs and profits from the sale of electricity and compost.

This thesis illustrates the potential use of software SinuTrain for programming CNC machine tools on the component Sugar Bowl. First of all, Sinumerik 840D control system - ShopTurn is briefly positioned among other control systems. Subsequently, the technological preparation of production is processed for the two alternatives. The first one is production version from the rod blank 160 mm and the second one is production variant from a pre-cast. NC programs are created for the production of components of both technological options of Sugar Bowl in the software SinuTrain 6.3 - 6.4 V Open ShopTurn. The variants of technological solutions are compared with each other in the technical-economic evaluation. The pre-cast variant is better for manufacturing more than 50 pieces of the Sugar Bowls.

Department of Mining and Environmental Geology / MESMEG