Anthropogenic activities are often considered to be the main sources of mercury (Hg) found in aquatic systems. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the historic input of Hg to a large lake (Lake Ekoln) situated downstream the City of Uppsala using a dated sediment core. The main objective was to reveal general long-term (millennia-scale) trend in mercury loadings to the lake assess to what extent the lake has received an increase input of mercury during the last century from atmospheric inputs or local sources (mining activities, hospital effluents, industries or agricultural activities). Sediment samples were analyzed with X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy for measurements of lead and phosphorous (used as a proxy for atmospheric inputs and effluent water, respectively). Total Hg was analyzed using a mercury analyzer. My results indicate high Hg concentrations in sediment of Lake Ekoln during the last three centuries. Hg concentrations was not correlated to atmospheric derived metals (Pb) or effluent water derived nutrients (P) and only weakly correlated to the organic matter content of the sediment. Highest concentrations was found during a period around 1850 and in the last few years. The weak correlation with Pb suggest that the Hg is entering the lake from other sources than atmospheric inputs. The most likely local sources are argued to be mining activities (including fossil fuel burning during the production of iron) or Uppsala university hospital situated upstream of Lake Ekoln. However, there is a large uncertainty regarding the importance of these historical Hg sources for the lake.

For centuries in the future, the climate on Earth will be affected by the global warming.Effects as melting ices, increasing sea levels and extreme weather, are all consequencesof the high amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), that we humans have caused. In Sweden,can climate effects like higher temperatures, longer vegetation periods and greaterseasonal variations in water fluxes, be expected. Due to climate changes and anincreasing population, the drinking water production in Uppsala will be affected. Interms of securing the drinking water production in the future, Uppsala Vatten och Avfall AB are investigating the possibility to use the Ekoln basin in lake Mälaren, as acomplementary raw water catchment area. In order to keep a secure drinking water production, in regard to quantity and quality, itis of interest to investigate how fluxes and water quality will be affected in the future.The annual pattern of water mixing, with summer- and winter stratification, and overturnduring spring and autumn, is something that significantly affects the water quality in theSwedish lakes. With the aim to study how the annual pattern of water mixing in theEkoln basin, might change due to future climate changes, hydrodynamic modelling wasperformed on a model area consisting of the Ekoln basin with adjacently bays. A hydrodynamic (3D) transport model of type MIKE 3 Flow Model FM, created byTyréns AB for simulating transport of pollutions, was calibrated and adapted to simulatetemperature profiles in the model area. To be able to study the annual pattern of watermixing, the model was also adapted to simulate a period of a year. Three scenarios weresimulated, one reference year and two future scenarios, where the future scenarios werebased on the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in year 2050. The calibration of the model was successful, and the calculation time was reduced byadapting the mesh. Results from the three scenarios, showed that the period with summerstratification might become nine days longer by RCP4.5 in year 2050, compared to thereference scenario. Simulation of RCP8.5 during the same time period, did not showany changes. By RCP8.5 it is possible that water temperatures in the epilimnion, areincreasing and that there will be no winter stratification. The temperature in the surfacewater are affected by the air temperature, in future studies it is in interest to investigatehow stratification and cirkulation will be affected by changes in wind speed and winddirection, how different types of wind data effect the results, it is also in interest to studychanges during a time period longer than one year. / Den globala uppvärmningen kommer att påverka Jordens klimat i många sekel framöver.Effekter som smältande isar, stigande havsnivåer och extremare väder, är allakonsekvenser av de enorma utsläpp koldioxid (CO2), som vi människor orsakat. ISverige kan vi i framtiden vänta oss varmare temperaturer, längre vegetationsperioderoch flöden med stora säsongsvariationer. I Uppsala kommer de framtidaklimatförändringarna i samverkan med en växande befolkning att påverka stadensdricksvattenproduktion. Uppsala Vatten och avfall AB undersöker idag möjligheten tillatt använda Mälarbassängen Ekoln som kompletterande råvattentäkt. För att säkerställa en säker dricksvattenproduktion, både utifrån den kvantitet ochkvalitet som krävs, är det av intresse att veta hur flöden och vattenkvalitet i Ekoln kankomma att utvecklas i framtiden. Något som i stor grad påverkar vattenkvaliteten i våraSvenska sjöar, är den årstidsbundna cirkulationen, med vinter- och sommarstagnation,samt vår- och höstcirkulation. För att undersöka hur den årstidsbundna cirkulationen iEkoln kan komma att förändras med framtida klimat, utfördes hydrodynamiskmodellering för sjön med intilliggande vikar. En bestående tredimensionell spridningsmodell av typ MIKE 3 Flow Model FM, skapadför att simulera spridning av avloppsvatten i Ekoln, erhölls från Tyréns AB. Modellenkalibrerades och anpassades för att simulera temperaturprofiler i sjön. För att täcka inbeteendet för den årstidsbundna cirkulationen anpassades modellen till att simulera etthelt år. Modellen kördes för ett referensår, samt för de två strålningsdrivningsscenariernaRCP4.5 och RCP8.5 vid år 2050. Kalibrering av modellen var lyckad och beräkningstiden förkortades genom anpassningav beräkningsnätet. Resultat från simuleringar visade på att sommarstagnation kanförekomma nio dagar längre vid RCP4.5 för år 2050, än under referensåret. Ingenförändring förväntas vid RCP8.5 under samma tidsperiod. Vid RCP8.5 förväntas dockvattentemperaturer i epilimnion att stiga och vinterstagnation förekommer ej.Temperaturer i vattenmassans övre skikt påverkas i hög grad av lufttemperatur och vidfortsatta studier är det även av intresse att undersöka hur skiktning och cirkulationpåverkas av förändrade vindförhållanden, hur olika drivdata för vindförhållandenpåverkar resultatet samt att undersöka en tidsperiod som är längre än ett år.

Många sjöar är idag påverkade av mänsklig aktivitet, bland annat är 1 % av Sveriges sjöar eutrofierade, däribland Ekoln. Ekoln är en stor sjö i Uppsala län söder om Uppsala som länge varit eutrofierad. Fyrisån och Örsundaån är de största inflödena till Ekoln och Sävjaån är ett betydande biflöde till Fyrisån. Kungsängsverket är Uppsalas reningsverk och har sitt utlopp i Fyrisån och som ett led i att minska eutrofieringen byggdes fosforreningen ut 1972. Fosforhalterna i Ekoln sjönk och algblomningarna blev färre. Kvävereningen byggdes ut 1999 och i detta arbete utvärderas detta reningssteg.   Hypotesen är att när ammonium minskar i bottenvattnet kommer syrgasförhållandena att förbättras på grund av minskad ammoniumnedbrytning som förbrukar syrgas. Med ökad halt syrgas är det känt sedan tidigare studier att den interna fosforbelastningen och algblomningen minskar.   För att undersöka om det skett en signifikant minskning av näringsämnen i intransporten till Ekoln och av halterna i Ekoln utfördes statistiska test av ämnena för perioden före och perioden efter införandet av kväverening. Intransporterna modellerades även i StormTac.   Resultatet visar att det skett en minskning av kväve- och ammoniumtransport och en ökning av fosfor-, fosfat- och TOC-transport. I Ekoln har en minskning påvisats i ammonium-, totalfosforhalt och en ökning i fosfat- och TOC-halt. Ammoniumhalten har minskat i bottenvattnet så den minskade intransporten av ammonium gett en effekt. Fosfor- och fosfathalten har inte förändrats signifikant i bottenvattnet, men det har skett en viss minskning av fosfor och en viss ökning av fosfat i Ekoln perioden 1990-1998 till 2000-2010. Även syrgashalten har ökat i bottenvattnet.   Att det inte skett signifikanta förändringar i fosfor, fosfat och syrgas tyder på att intransporten till vattenmassan inte förändrats. Ökade TOC-halter leder till ökad nedbrytning där syrgas förbrukas i bottenvattnet. Det är möjligt att situationen sett ännu värre ut i Ekoln om inte kväveutsläppen minskat.

Per and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are found ubiquitously in the environment across the globe.These substances have high persistence due to the strong carbon and fluorine bond. In the aquaticenvironment, due to high persistence, these substances don’t decay easily and are detected on the surfaceas well as in groundwater sources. Human exposure to PFAS has been observed due to ingestion of PFAScontaminated food and water which has an adverse effect on the human health. High concentrations ofPerfluoroalkyl Octanoic Sulphonate (PFOS) and Perfluoroalkyl Hexanoic Sulphonate (PFHxS) wereobserved in Lake Ekoln. The main aim of this study was to analyze the spread of PFOS and PFHxS in thelake. Hydrodynamic modelling of flow and water quality modelling in the lake was performed usingMIKE 3 FM software for the evaluation of the spread pattern of PFOS and PFHxS in the lake. Twoscenarios with the different mass fluxes of PFOS and PFHxS for Fyrisån were assumed for investigatingthe uncertainties and influence of contribution from Fyrisån. Additionally, conductivity from differentinflows was modelled as a passive tracer for understanding the water quality and the circulation in thelake. The results of the simulation showed that Fyrisån and Kungsängsverket are major contributors of PFOSand PFHxS to the lake. Similarly, the analysis of the current spread of PFOS and PFHxS shows that theuncertainty in the model is high and is dependent mainly on the assumption of mass flux from theFyrisån. Due to the lack of sampling data on the concentration of PFOS and PFHxS, it was difficult to geta reliable assumption for the mass flux from the Fyrisån. From the study, it was identified that thesampled concentration of PFOS and PFHxS also had certain variations which might be due to theinfluence of concentration from different sources and processes. Likewise, the simulation result of PFOSand PFHxS was observed to have a similar pattern of spread. Although PFOS is a long-chain PFAS andPFHxS is a short-chain PFAS and they have different physio-chemical properties, the spread patternswere observed to be similar. As only the hydrodynamic processes were influencing the simulation for thespread of PFOS and PFHxS in the lake and other physiochemical processes such as sedimentation andbioaccumulation were not included in the model, the simulated PFAS results were found similar. To conclude, the study shows that the spread of PFOS and PFHxS is mainly influenced by the flow andconcentration in Fyrisån. Also, higher uncertainty in the model performance was observed due to theissue of reliable mass flux estimation from Fyrisån. Similarly, the influence of processes such assedimentation and bio accumulation are necessary to be included in the model for analysis of spread ofPFAS with different physio-chemical properties.

Societies are facing great challenges with obtaining a good quality and quantity of drinking water in the context of climate change. Increases in natural organic matter (NOM) and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been observed in lakes and drinking water the past years, which is of great concern for water treatment plants in Sweden. It is therefore vital to increase the knowledge regarding the distribution of these substances in the environment. The main objective of this project was therefore to further develop a hydrodynamic model for lake Ekoln by including transportation and degradation of NOM. This was to be done by calibrating the model in terms of total organic carbon (TOC) and Water colour (Colour). A second objective was to investigate the requirements to successfully model PFAS in Ekoln for future studies. The study was done using the model MIKE 3 FM, developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) The two variables TOC and Colour, were calibrated separately for the period of February 2017 to September 2018. For TOC the within-lake processes were decay and sedimentation. These were described using a reference decay constant for 20 °C (k0), that was scaled using the Arrhenius temperature coefficient (θ), and sedimentation was represented by a settling velocity (vsm). For Colour the included process was photooxidation. This process was described using a maximum photooxidation rate (kphoto) that was scaled using the Monod relation including parameters for minimum photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) necessary for photooxidation to occur (Imin) and a PAR half saturation constant (I1/2). The calibration of TOC resulted in the following best fit parameters for k0  of 0.001 d-1, θ of 1.07 and vsm of 0.001 md-1. The calibration of Colour resulted in the following best fit parameters for kphoto of 0.0125 d-1, Imin of 0 µmol photons m-2s-1 and I1/2 of 4 µmol photons m-2s-1. Overall it can be concluded that the chosen processes managed to capture the seasonal variations of TOC and Colour, and the calibrated parameter values are in line with similar studies. The assumption of not including autochthonous input proved to be the biggest source of error in the calibration of TOC but proved to have a minor influence on the calibration of Colour. To achieve a more realistic representation of photooxidation in the vertical profile, for the simulation of Colour, more processes should be considered to be added in the model in future studies. The results presented in this study contributes with increased knowledge of carbon budgets in lakes and can be used to predict water quality hazards connected to climate change and extreme events. The limited access to PFAS data for Ekoln, constrained the study of PFAS and only two sources could therefore be studied: The sewage treatment plant Kungsängsverket and precipitation. The results showed that the simulated concentrations of PFAS in Ekoln only accounted for 40 % of the observed concentrations. It could further be concluded that the contribution from precipitation is negligible. For future studies it is judged to be vital to include Fyrisån as a PFAS source, and to look into processes that influence PFAS distribution, such as sedimentation and adsorption to organic matter. / Samhällen står idag inför stora utmaningar vad gäller att tillhandahålla god kvalitet och kvantitet av dricksvatten under rådande klimatförändringar. De senaste åren har det observerats ökande halter av naturligt organiskt material (NOM) och per- och polyfluorerade alkylsubstanser (PFAS) i sjöar och dricksvatten, vilket är bekymmersamt för Sveriges vattenreningsverk. Det är därför av största vikt att öka kunskapen om dessa ämnens distribution i miljön. Huvudsyftet med denna studie var därför att vidareutveckla en hydrodynamisk modell för sjön Ekoln så att den även inkluderar transporten och nedbrytningen av NOM. Detta utfördes genom att kalibrera modellen för totalt organisk kol (TOC) och Vattenfärg (Färg). Ett andra syfte var att undersöka vilka förutsättningar som krävs för att kunna modellera PFAS på ett korrekt sätt i Ekoln. Studien utfördes i modellverktyget MIKE 3 FM, utvecklat av DHI.  De två variablerna TOC och Färg kalibrerades separat för perioden februari 2017 – september 2018. Processerna som valdes att påverka TOC var nedbrytning och sedimentation. Dessa processer beskrevs med hjälp av en referens-nedbrytningskonstant för 20 °C (k0), vilken anpassades med hjälp av Arrhenius temperaturkoefficient (θ) och sedimentation beskrevs med hjälp av en sedimentationshastighet (vsm). Färg påverkades endast av processen fotooxidation vilken beskrevs med en maximal hastighet för fotooxidation  (kphoto) som anpassades med hjälp av Monods relation. Anpassningen skedde med hjälp av parametern för minimal fotosyntetiskt aktivt ljus (PAR) för att fotooxidation ska ske (Imin) samt en PAR halv mättnads konstant (I1/2) .  Kalibreringen resulterade i värden för k0 av 0.001 d-1, θ av 1.07 och vsm av 0.001 md-1. Kalibreringen för Färg resulterade i värden för kphoto av 0.0125 d-1, Imin av 0 µmol fotoner m-2s-1 och I1/2 av 4 µmol fotoner m-2s-1. Det kan konstateras att de valda processerna lyckas med att beskriva säsongsvariationerna av både TOC och Färg och att de kalibrerade parametervärdena stämmer överens med litteraturen. Antagandet om att inte inkludera autoktont tillförsel av organiskt material (NOM från ytvatten), visade sig vara den största felkällan i simulering av TOC, men visade sig ha en mycket liten påverkan på simuleringen av Färg. För en mer realistisk bild av fotooxidations spridning i djupled, för simuleringen av Färg, bör fler processer övervägas att inkluderas i modellen för framtida studier.  Studien av PFAS var begränsad av tillgången till data, vilket medförde att endast två källor av PFAS till Ekoln analyserades: reningsverket Kungsängsverket och nederbörd. Resultaten visade att den simulerade koncentrationen av PFAS endast motsvarade 40 % av den observerade. Vidare kunde det konstateras att tillförsel av PFAS från regn kan antas vara försumbar. För framtida studier av PFAS i Ekoln bedöms det vara avgörande att inkludera Fyrisån som en källa, samt att vidare undersöka processer som påverkar transporten av PFAS så som sedimentation och adsorption till organiskt material.

<p>This thesis presents predictive models for important variables concerning eutrophication effects in lakes. The keystone is a dynamic phosphorus model based on ordinary differential equations. By calculating mass fluxes of phosphorus into, within and out from a lake, the concentrations of different forms of phosphorus in different compartments of the lake are estimated.</p><p>The dynamic phosphorus model is critically tested and several improvements are presented, including two new compartments for colloidal phosphorus, a sub-model for suspended particulate matter (SPM) and new algorithms for lake outflow, water mixing, diffusion, water content and organic content of accumulation sediments are implemented. Predictions with the new version show good agreement against empirical data in five tested lakes.</p><p>The sub-model for SPM uses the same driving variables as the basic phosphorus model, so the inclusion of this model as a sub-model does not require any additional variables. The model for SPM may also be used as a separate model giving monthly predictions of suspended particulate matter in two water compartments and one compartment with SPM available for resuspension in ET-sediments.</p><p>Empirical data from Lake Erken (Sweden) and Lake Balaton (Hungary) are used to evaluate the variability in settling velocity of SPM. It is found that the variability is substantial and may be accounted for by using a dimensionless moderator for SPM concentration. Empirical data from accumulation area sediments in Lake Erken are used to develop a model for the dynamics of phosphorus sedimentation, burial and diffusion in the sediments. The model is shown to provide reasonable monthly predictions of four functional forms of phosphorus at different sediment depths.</p><p>Simulations with the lake phosphorus model using two different climate scenarios indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. Lake Erken, with a water retention time of 7 years, appears to be much more sensitive than two basins of Lake Mälaren (Sweden) with substantially shorter retention times. The implication would be that in eutrophic lakes with long water retention times, eutrophication problems may become serious if the future becomes warmer. This will be important in contexts of lake management when remedial measures against lake eutrophication have to be taken.</p>

This thesis presents predictive models for important variables concerning eutrophication effects in lakes. The keystone is a dynamic phosphorus model based on ordinary differential equations. By calculating mass fluxes of phosphorus into, within and out from a lake, the concentrations of different forms of phosphorus in different compartments of the lake are estimated. The dynamic phosphorus model is critically tested and several improvements are presented, including two new compartments for colloidal phosphorus, a sub-model for suspended particulate matter (SPM) and new algorithms for lake outflow, water mixing, diffusion, water content and organic content of accumulation sediments are implemented. Predictions with the new version show good agreement against empirical data in five tested lakes. The sub-model for SPM uses the same driving variables as the basic phosphorus model, so the inclusion of this model as a sub-model does not require any additional variables. The model for SPM may also be used as a separate model giving monthly predictions of suspended particulate matter in two water compartments and one compartment with SPM available for resuspension in ET-sediments. Empirical data from Lake Erken (Sweden) and Lake Balaton (Hungary) are used to evaluate the variability in settling velocity of SPM. It is found that the variability is substantial and may be accounted for by using a dimensionless moderator for SPM concentration. Empirical data from accumulation area sediments in Lake Erken are used to develop a model for the dynamics of phosphorus sedimentation, burial and diffusion in the sediments. The model is shown to provide reasonable monthly predictions of four functional forms of phosphorus at different sediment depths. Simulations with the lake phosphorus model using two different climate scenarios indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. Lake Erken, with a water retention time of 7 years, appears to be much more sensitive than two basins of Lake Mälaren (Sweden) with substantially shorter retention times. The implication would be that in eutrophic lakes with long water retention times, eutrophication problems may become serious if the future becomes warmer. This will be important in contexts of lake management when remedial measures against lake eutrophication have to be taken.