For centuries in the future, the climate on Earth will be affected by the global warming.Effects as melting ices, increasing sea levels and extreme weather, are all consequencesof the high amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), that we humans have caused. In Sweden,can climate effects like higher temperatures, longer vegetation periods and greaterseasonal variations in water fluxes, be expected. Due to climate changes and anincreasing population, the drinking water production in Uppsala will be affected. Interms of securing the drinking water production in the future, Uppsala Vatten och Avfall AB are investigating the possibility to use the Ekoln basin in lake Mälaren, as acomplementary raw water catchment area. In order to keep a secure drinking water production, in regard to quantity and quality, itis of interest to investigate how fluxes and water quality will be affected in the future.The annual pattern of water mixing, with summer- and winter stratification, and overturnduring spring and autumn, is something that significantly affects the water quality in theSwedish lakes. With the aim to study how the annual pattern of water mixing in theEkoln basin, might change due to future climate changes, hydrodynamic modelling wasperformed on a model area consisting of the Ekoln basin with adjacently bays. A hydrodynamic (3D) transport model of type MIKE 3 Flow Model FM, created byTyréns AB for simulating transport of pollutions, was calibrated and adapted to simulatetemperature profiles in the model area. To be able to study the annual pattern of watermixing, the model was also adapted to simulate a period of a year. Three scenarios weresimulated, one reference year and two future scenarios, where the future scenarios werebased on the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in year 2050. The calibration of the model was successful, and the calculation time was reduced byadapting the mesh. Results from the three scenarios, showed that the period with summerstratification might become nine days longer by RCP4.5 in year 2050, compared to thereference scenario. Simulation of RCP8.5 during the same time period, did not showany changes. By RCP8.5 it is possible that water temperatures in the epilimnion, areincreasing and that there will be no winter stratification. The temperature in the surfacewater are affected by the air temperature, in future studies it is in interest to investigatehow stratification and cirkulation will be affected by changes in wind speed and winddirection, how different types of wind data effect the results, it is also in interest to studychanges during a time period longer than one year. / Den globala uppvärmningen kommer att påverka Jordens klimat i många sekel framöver.Effekter som smältande isar, stigande havsnivåer och extremare väder, är allakonsekvenser av de enorma utsläpp koldioxid (CO2), som vi människor orsakat. ISverige kan vi i framtiden vänta oss varmare temperaturer, längre vegetationsperioderoch flöden med stora säsongsvariationer. I Uppsala kommer de framtidaklimatförändringarna i samverkan med en växande befolkning att påverka stadensdricksvattenproduktion. Uppsala Vatten och avfall AB undersöker idag möjligheten tillatt använda Mälarbassängen Ekoln som kompletterande råvattentäkt. För att säkerställa en säker dricksvattenproduktion, både utifrån den kvantitet ochkvalitet som krävs, är det av intresse att veta hur flöden och vattenkvalitet i Ekoln kankomma att utvecklas i framtiden. Något som i stor grad påverkar vattenkvaliteten i våraSvenska sjöar, är den årstidsbundna cirkulationen, med vinter- och sommarstagnation,samt vår- och höstcirkulation. För att undersöka hur den årstidsbundna cirkulationen iEkoln kan komma att förändras med framtida klimat, utfördes hydrodynamiskmodellering för sjön med intilliggande vikar. En bestående tredimensionell spridningsmodell av typ MIKE 3 Flow Model FM, skapadför att simulera spridning av avloppsvatten i Ekoln, erhölls från Tyréns AB. Modellenkalibrerades och anpassades för att simulera temperaturprofiler i sjön. För att täcka inbeteendet för den årstidsbundna cirkulationen anpassades modellen till att simulera etthelt år. Modellen kördes för ett referensår, samt för de två strålningsdrivningsscenariernaRCP4.5 och RCP8.5 vid år 2050. Kalibrering av modellen var lyckad och beräkningstiden förkortades genom anpassningav beräkningsnätet. Resultat från simuleringar visade på att sommarstagnation kanförekomma nio dagar längre vid RCP4.5 för år 2050, än under referensåret. Ingenförändring förväntas vid RCP8.5 under samma tidsperiod. Vid RCP8.5 förväntas dockvattentemperaturer i epilimnion att stiga och vinterstagnation förekommer ej.Temperaturer i vattenmassans övre skikt påverkas i hög grad av lufttemperatur och vidfortsatta studier är det även av intresse att undersöka hur skiktning och cirkulationpåverkas av förändrade vindförhållanden, hur olika drivdata för vindförhållandenpåverkar resultatet samt att undersöka en tidsperiod som är längre än ett år.

Understanding water temperature dynamics in lakes is essential for ecological and environmental management. This study focuses on Lake Erken, Sweden, aiming to develop and validate a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model using the MIKE 3 FM modelling system to simulate the lake's water temperature distribution. The model performance was evaluated by comparing simulated water temperature profiles with observed data at various depths, distinguishing between the upper layer and deeper layers. Results showed satisfactory performance, with the model capturing seasonal and spatial variations in the lake’s thermal structure. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for water temperature simulation ranged between 0.7-1.8°C, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was between 0.86-0.99 across different depths. However, the model has limitations in accurately capturing stratification in deeper layers, especially during the summer months. This research underscores the importance of accurate temperature modelling for understanding lake ecosystems and provides insights for future improvements in hydrodynamic simulations.

Mälaren är en mycket viktig dricksvattentäkt för många människor. I den här studien utreds riskfaktorersom kan påverka råvattenkvaliteten i Mälaren och sedan relateras dessa till hydrodynamiskmodellering av Mälaren. Hydrodynamisk modellering är ett modernt verktyg som kan simulera vattnets rörelse och tar hänsyn till många hydrodynamiska och meteorologiska drivvariabler. Modellerkan användas för att till exempel förutse transport av punktutsläpp och beräkna när och vilken koncentration som kommer till ett vattenverks intag. Beställaren av detta projekt är Norrvatten, en dricksvattenproducent som är intresserad av utvecklingsmöjligheterna hos oceanografen Göran Broströms tillämpning av den hydrodynamiska modellen MITgcm. Norrvatten använder sig idag av en modell vid namn MIKE 3 FM skapad av DHI. De är intresserade av vilken utveckling av MITgcm som skulle behövas för att den ska uppnå liknande kvalitetskrav som deras nuvarande modell gör. I en litteraturstudie samlades information om Mälarens fysikaliska, biologiska, kemiska förutsättningar samt information om hydrodynamisk modellering, för att göra en analys kring Mälarens råvattenkvalitet såväl som modellering av Mälaren. Genom kvalitativa intervjuer med Göran Broström angående MITgcm samt Helene Ejhed, uppströmsansvarig på Norrvatten som ofta använder MIKE 3 FM var det möjligt att ingående analysera modellerna utifrån såväl drivdata som modellernas övergripande kapaciteter. Utöver analys från intervjuerna gjordes en körning av Göran Broströms tillämpning av MITgcm. Resultaten visade att de största riskerna gällande Mälarens råvattenkvalitet är oljeutsläpp från närliggande farleder och patogener som släpps ut från reningsverk. Jämförelsen mellan MIKE 3 FM och MITgcm etablerade många likheter mellan modellerna, även om vissa variabler skilde sig åt, såsom in- och utflöden, ytvågor och nederbörd. Förslag på en ordning som Göran Broströms modell kan byggas ut på presenteras i form av en prioriteringspyramid. Validering av modellen visade sigvara ett viktigt första steg i utvecklingen samt att förbättra interaktionsdesignen. Utveckling av modellen skulle resultera i vissa kostnader för Norrvatten. Vidare studier behöver bidra med en större förståelse över den tillämpning Broström gjort av MITgcm samt jämförelser med flera modeller.

The increasing frequency of Cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater bodies raise concerns around the globe. The consequences of this phenomenon impact not only human health but the entire surrounding ecosystem. During the past decades, numerical modelling has been increasingly used to investigate and study aquatic systems. Hydrodynamic and Ecological models are developed in parallel to simulate processes, evaluate potential remedies, and investigate future scenarios. This project aimed at developing a 3D hydrodynamic and water quality (ecological) model to assess the eutrophication conditions of Lake Vomb under current and future scenarios. MIKE 3 FM software was used in the analysis with meteorological, hydrological, and water quality data. The hydrodynamic model performance was satisfactory in terms of water temperature simulation with root-mean-square-error (RMSE) ranging between 0.38-1.2 oC. In the ecological model, Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) was simulated as a surrogate for Cyanobacteria. The model was adequate in simulating Chl-a concentrations with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.94 during calibration and 0.84 after validation. The results showed that Lake Vomb’s nutrient concentrations are highly influenced by external nitrogen loading and internal phosphorus loading. The results also showed that Chl-a levels are correlated with the total phosphorus levels in the lake. Future water quality projections were attempted through two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the year 2050. The projections utilized only changes in air temperatures and precipitations and suggested significant increase in Cyanobacteria biomass independence of changes in external nutrient loading.

Per and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are found ubiquitously in the environment across the globe.These substances have high persistence due to the strong carbon and fluorine bond. In the aquaticenvironment, due to high persistence, these substances don’t decay easily and are detected on the surfaceas well as in groundwater sources. Human exposure to PFAS has been observed due to ingestion of PFAScontaminated food and water which has an adverse effect on the human health. High concentrations ofPerfluoroalkyl Octanoic Sulphonate (PFOS) and Perfluoroalkyl Hexanoic Sulphonate (PFHxS) wereobserved in Lake Ekoln. The main aim of this study was to analyze the spread of PFOS and PFHxS in thelake. Hydrodynamic modelling of flow and water quality modelling in the lake was performed usingMIKE 3 FM software for the evaluation of the spread pattern of PFOS and PFHxS in the lake. Twoscenarios with the different mass fluxes of PFOS and PFHxS for Fyrisån were assumed for investigatingthe uncertainties and influence of contribution from Fyrisån. Additionally, conductivity from differentinflows was modelled as a passive tracer for understanding the water quality and the circulation in thelake. The results of the simulation showed that Fyrisån and Kungsängsverket are major contributors of PFOSand PFHxS to the lake. Similarly, the analysis of the current spread of PFOS and PFHxS shows that theuncertainty in the model is high and is dependent mainly on the assumption of mass flux from theFyrisån. Due to the lack of sampling data on the concentration of PFOS and PFHxS, it was difficult to geta reliable assumption for the mass flux from the Fyrisån. From the study, it was identified that thesampled concentration of PFOS and PFHxS also had certain variations which might be due to theinfluence of concentration from different sources and processes. Likewise, the simulation result of PFOSand PFHxS was observed to have a similar pattern of spread. Although PFOS is a long-chain PFAS andPFHxS is a short-chain PFAS and they have different physio-chemical properties, the spread patternswere observed to be similar. As only the hydrodynamic processes were influencing the simulation for thespread of PFOS and PFHxS in the lake and other physiochemical processes such as sedimentation andbioaccumulation were not included in the model, the simulated PFAS results were found similar. To conclude, the study shows that the spread of PFOS and PFHxS is mainly influenced by the flow andconcentration in Fyrisån. Also, higher uncertainty in the model performance was observed due to theissue of reliable mass flux estimation from Fyrisån. Similarly, the influence of processes such assedimentation and bio accumulation are necessary to be included in the model for analysis of spread ofPFAS with different physio-chemical properties.

Societies are facing great challenges with obtaining a good quality and quantity of drinking water in the context of climate change. Increases in natural organic matter (NOM) and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been observed in lakes and drinking water the past years, which is of great concern for water treatment plants in Sweden. It is therefore vital to increase the knowledge regarding the distribution of these substances in the environment. The main objective of this project was therefore to further develop a hydrodynamic model for lake Ekoln by including transportation and degradation of NOM. This was to be done by calibrating the model in terms of total organic carbon (TOC) and Water colour (Colour). A second objective was to investigate the requirements to successfully model PFAS in Ekoln for future studies. The study was done using the model MIKE 3 FM, developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) The two variables TOC and Colour, were calibrated separately for the period of February 2017 to September 2018. For TOC the within-lake processes were decay and sedimentation. These were described using a reference decay constant for 20 °C (k0), that was scaled using the Arrhenius temperature coefficient (θ), and sedimentation was represented by a settling velocity (vsm). For Colour the included process was photooxidation. This process was described using a maximum photooxidation rate (kphoto) that was scaled using the Monod relation including parameters for minimum photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) necessary for photooxidation to occur (Imin) and a PAR half saturation constant (I1/2). The calibration of TOC resulted in the following best fit parameters for k0  of 0.001 d-1, θ of 1.07 and vsm of 0.001 md-1. The calibration of Colour resulted in the following best fit parameters for kphoto of 0.0125 d-1, Imin of 0 µmol photons m-2s-1 and I1/2 of 4 µmol photons m-2s-1. Overall it can be concluded that the chosen processes managed to capture the seasonal variations of TOC and Colour, and the calibrated parameter values are in line with similar studies. The assumption of not including autochthonous input proved to be the biggest source of error in the calibration of TOC but proved to have a minor influence on the calibration of Colour. To achieve a more realistic representation of photooxidation in the vertical profile, for the simulation of Colour, more processes should be considered to be added in the model in future studies. The results presented in this study contributes with increased knowledge of carbon budgets in lakes and can be used to predict water quality hazards connected to climate change and extreme events. The limited access to PFAS data for Ekoln, constrained the study of PFAS and only two sources could therefore be studied: The sewage treatment plant Kungsängsverket and precipitation. The results showed that the simulated concentrations of PFAS in Ekoln only accounted for 40 % of the observed concentrations. It could further be concluded that the contribution from precipitation is negligible. For future studies it is judged to be vital to include Fyrisån as a PFAS source, and to look into processes that influence PFAS distribution, such as sedimentation and adsorption to organic matter. / Samhällen står idag inför stora utmaningar vad gäller att tillhandahålla god kvalitet och kvantitet av dricksvatten under rådande klimatförändringar. De senaste åren har det observerats ökande halter av naturligt organiskt material (NOM) och per- och polyfluorerade alkylsubstanser (PFAS) i sjöar och dricksvatten, vilket är bekymmersamt för Sveriges vattenreningsverk. Det är därför av största vikt att öka kunskapen om dessa ämnens distribution i miljön. Huvudsyftet med denna studie var därför att vidareutveckla en hydrodynamisk modell för sjön Ekoln så att den även inkluderar transporten och nedbrytningen av NOM. Detta utfördes genom att kalibrera modellen för totalt organisk kol (TOC) och Vattenfärg (Färg). Ett andra syfte var att undersöka vilka förutsättningar som krävs för att kunna modellera PFAS på ett korrekt sätt i Ekoln. Studien utfördes i modellverktyget MIKE 3 FM, utvecklat av DHI.  De två variablerna TOC och Färg kalibrerades separat för perioden februari 2017 – september 2018. Processerna som valdes att påverka TOC var nedbrytning och sedimentation. Dessa processer beskrevs med hjälp av en referens-nedbrytningskonstant för 20 °C (k0), vilken anpassades med hjälp av Arrhenius temperaturkoefficient (θ) och sedimentation beskrevs med hjälp av en sedimentationshastighet (vsm). Färg påverkades endast av processen fotooxidation vilken beskrevs med en maximal hastighet för fotooxidation  (kphoto) som anpassades med hjälp av Monods relation. Anpassningen skedde med hjälp av parametern för minimal fotosyntetiskt aktivt ljus (PAR) för att fotooxidation ska ske (Imin) samt en PAR halv mättnads konstant (I1/2) .  Kalibreringen resulterade i värden för k0 av 0.001 d-1, θ av 1.07 och vsm av 0.001 md-1. Kalibreringen för Färg resulterade i värden för kphoto av 0.0125 d-1, Imin av 0 µmol fotoner m-2s-1 och I1/2 av 4 µmol fotoner m-2s-1. Det kan konstateras att de valda processerna lyckas med att beskriva säsongsvariationerna av både TOC och Färg och att de kalibrerade parametervärdena stämmer överens med litteraturen. Antagandet om att inte inkludera autoktont tillförsel av organiskt material (NOM från ytvatten), visade sig vara den största felkällan i simulering av TOC, men visade sig ha en mycket liten påverkan på simuleringen av Färg. För en mer realistisk bild av fotooxidations spridning i djupled, för simuleringen av Färg, bör fler processer övervägas att inkluderas i modellen för framtida studier.  Studien av PFAS var begränsad av tillgången till data, vilket medförde att endast två källor av PFAS till Ekoln analyserades: reningsverket Kungsängsverket och nederbörd. Resultaten visade att den simulerade koncentrationen av PFAS endast motsvarade 40 % av den observerade. Vidare kunde det konstateras att tillförsel av PFAS från regn kan antas vara försumbar. För framtida studier av PFAS i Ekoln bedöms det vara avgörande att inkludera Fyrisån som en källa, samt att vidare undersöka processer som påverkar transporten av PFAS så som sedimentation och adsorption till organiskt material.

Μελετάται αριθμητικά η υδροδυναμική κυκλοφορία του Πατραϊκού κόλπου. Σκοπό αποτελεί η κατανόηση της τρισδιάστατης δομής της ροής που προκαλείται υπό διάφορες φυσικές φορτίσεις, δηλαδή τον άνεμο, την παλίρροια και τη στρωμάτωση. Η αριθμητική προσομοίωση γίνεται με τον τρισδιάστατο αριθμητικό κώδικας πεπερασμένων όγκων MIKE 3 FM (HD,TR). Η ανεμογενής κυκλοφορία, κατά τους χειμερινούς μήνες οπότε ο κόλπος σύμφωνα με μετρήσεις είναι ομογενής, παρουσιάζει στοιχεία ροής μεγάλης κλίμακας, με επιρροή από τη δύναμη Coriolis, ανάπτυξη στρώματος Ekman και ισχυρά ρεύματα επιστροφής, λίγα μέτρα κάτω από την ελεύθερη επιφάνεια. Ταυτόχρονα, σε περιοχές όπως η θέση του στενού Ρίου-Αντιρρίου η ροή συμπεριφέρεται περισσότερο ως υδραυλική ροή με ταπείνωση της ελεύθερης επιφάνειας και κατακόρυφο προφίλ ταχύτητας, όμοιο με της τυρβώδους ροής Couette. Στην οριζόντια διεύθυνση, η ροή παρουσιάζει έντονα παράκτια ρεύματα και κλίση της ελεύθερης επιφάνειας. Εκτιμάται ότι ο χρόνος ανανέωσης των υδάτων για τον κόλπο θα κυμαίνεται από ένα μήνα έως μία εβδομάδα, ανάλογα με την ένταση του ανέμου. Φαίνεται ότι στα βαθύτερα στρώματα του Πατραϊκού η ανεμογενής ροή δεν επιδρά σημαντικά στην ανανέωση των υδάτων, τα οποία παραμένουν εγκλωβισμένα και επανακυκλοφορούν μεταξύ των δύο εγκάρσιων ραχών που οριοθετούν την λεκάνη του. Τα παλιρροϊκά ρεύματα, τα οποία είναι σημαντικά στον Πατραϊκό, καθορίζουν την κυκλοφορία των υδάτων στο κύριο σώμα του κόλπου και στο στενό Ρίου-Αντιρρίου, ενώ η ανεμογενής ροή είναι καθοριστική κοντά στις ακτές. Η συνδυασμένη δράση ανέμου και παλίρροιας προκαλεί κυκλωνικούς και αντικυκλωνικούς στροβίλους, πλησίον των βορείων και νοτίων ακτών του Πατραϊκού, η φορά των οποίων υπαγορεύεται αποκλειστικά από τα ισχυρά ανεμογενή παράκτια ρεύματα. Η μελέτη της καλοκαιρινής κυκλοφορίας αναδεικνύει σημαντικές διαφορές, σε σύγκριση με την χειμερινή κυκλοφορία των υδάτων στον Πατραϊκό κόλπο. Τα ανεμογενή ρεύματα είναι αμελητέα από τη ζώνη του θερμοκλινούς και κάτω, για τη μέση ένταση ανέμου, ενώ η ένταση της τύρβης περιορίζεται στο επιλίμνιο. Την καλοκαιρινή περίοδο η δράση νοτιοδυτικού ανέμου συνδέεται με την παρουσία αναβλύσεων στις βορειοδυτικές ακτές του όρμου της Ναυπάκτου και στο μέτωπο της λιμνοθάλασσας του Μεσολογγίου. Αναβλύσεις εντοπίζονται και νοτιοδυτικά του Ρίου, μπροστά από την πόλη των Πατρών, για βορειοανατολικούς ανέμους. Στο στενό Ρίου-Αντιρρίου η δράση του ανέμου, αλλά και η παλίρροια οδηγούν στη γένεση εσωτερικών κυμάτων τα οποία προκαλούν κατακόρυφη κυκλοφορία. Κύριο χαρακτηριστικό της κυκλοφορίας των υδάτων στον Πατραϊκό, την καλοκαιρινή περίοδο, είναι ο ισχυρός κυκλωνικός στρόβιλος που παρατηρείται στο κέντρο του κόλπου αναγκάζοντας τα ύδατα σε περιστροφική κίνηση. Με βάση τις αριθμητικές προσομοιώσεις η ύπαρξη ισχυρού κυκλωνικού στροβίλου συνδέεται αποκλειστικά με την παρουσία βορειοανατολικού ανέμου και συγκεκριμένα στη φάση της πλημμυρίδας. Τέλος, με βάση τις αριθμητικές προσομοιώσεις υπολογίζεται το τρισδιάστατο πεδίο ρευμάτων στην ευρύτερη περιοχή του παλαιού και νέου λιμένα Πατρών, καθώς και η διάχυση και μεταφορά των επεξεργασμένων λυμάτων από τον αγωγό της ΔΕΥΑΠ. / The hydrodynamic circulation in the Gulf of Patras, in Western Greece, is studied using three-dimensional numerical simulations. The simulations are performed using the three-dimensional modeling system MIKE 3 FM (HD/TR). The wind-induced circulation is examined in the natural basin of the Gulf of Patras, in which batotropic flow develops, according to field measurements, during the winter months. The simulations show that the wind-induced flow creates strong currents near the coasts, which determine the sense of rotation of the gyres that develop in the Gulf. Strong currents are also created at the Rio-Antirio straits. The wind-induced, barotropic currents do not seem to contribute to the renewal of bottom waters, which recirculate between the two sills. Depending on the speed of the wind forcing the flow, the residence time of the waters in the Gulf of Patras is estimated to range from one month to one week. The tide-induced circulation is important in the Gulf of Patras. Strong, tidal currents have been simulated to develop at the straits of Rio-Antirrio and in the main body of the Gulf, with cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies developing at the northern and southern coasts, respectively. When there is also wind blowing, nearshore gyres develop, the sense of rotation of which is by the wind direction, while in the central part of the Gulf the flow pattern is dictated by the tidal action. Further, the baroclinic wind and tide-induced circulation are studied to investigate the effect of stratification on the structure of the flow. During the summer period the wind-induced flow and the wind generated turbulence driven by winds of medium strength are restricted to the upper layer of the epilimnion, while the strong winds cause tilt and erosion of the thermocline in the central part of the Gulf and generation of internal waves at the straits of Rio-Antirio. Salient features of the summer circulation are the strong upwellings and the central cyclonic gyre which are predicted using numerical simulations. Upwellings occur along the northwesterly portion of the Nafpaktos bay coasts at the westerly part of the Gulf of Corinth, under southwesterly wind, and to the south of Rio cape at the front of the city of Patras, under northeasterly wind. Concerning with the central cyclonic eddy, according to numerical simulations it develops exclusively during the flood tide under the simultaneous action of northeasterly winds. The numerical predictions were validated against satellite images of the surface temperature field determined by NOAA-6 and NOAA-7 which closely confirm the simulation results. Finally, the simulated barotropic and baroclinic flow fields are applied to the calculation of the currents near the port of Patras and to the advection and diffusion of the treated sewage effluents disposed of near the southeasterly coast of the Gulf, near the city of Patras.