Diss. (sammanfattning) Uppsala : Univ., 2001. / Härtill 6 uppsatser.

Den vitryggiga hackspetten har sedan 1970 varit en starkt hotad art i Sverige tack vare förändrade habitat till följd av ett industrialiserat skogsbruk med stor fokus på barrträd vilket inte är ett optimalträd för den vitryggiga hackspetten. Idag finns det cirka 3 häckande par kvar i Sverige. I Finland och Lettland uppvisar den vitryggiga hackspetten en stark närvaro med en stor population då skogsbruket i dessa länder skiljer sig markant mot Sverige i form av typ av träd och hantering av död ved. Syftet med studien som utförts i den här rapporten är att bedöma om ett område vid sjön Erkens norra strand kallat Hasselhorn i Stockholms län uppnår de riktlinjer Naturvårdsverket har satt på minst 20m3/ha död lövved i trakten samt en medelålder på >80 år för att ett område ska anses vara ett optimalområde för den vitryggiga hackspetten. Fokustrakten identifierades med IR-bilder för att avgöra om området var rikt på lövträd och ett område på 110ha ritades in. Sextio stickprov slumpades ut i området där levande och döda träd mättes in med klave och höjdmätare för att beräkna m3/ha och ålder bedömdes visuellt för varje mätområde. Studien påvisar att Hasselhorn idag inte uppnår optimal status för alla parametrar som satts upp av Naturvårdsverket för att det ska utgöra ett lämpligt habitat för den vitryggiga hackspetten. Däremot uppnår området kravet på mer än 20m3/ha och mer än 75 % lövträd satta av Naturvårdsverket. Området uppnår dock inte medelåldern >80 år. Även artfördelningen i regionen av levande träd visar på mycket lite barrträd och stor tillgång på asp som anses vara det främsta trädet för födosök för den vitryggiga hackspetten som visar på att Hasselhorn kan uppnå god status inom ett fåtal år om särskilda naturvårdsåtgärder sker i området. / The white-backed woodpecker has been a highly threatened in Sweden since 1970 due to drastically changed habitats as a result from industrialized forestry methods with a high focus on conifers. Today there are only 2 known breeding pairs left at Dalälven in Sweden. Compared to Finland and Latvia the white-backed woodpecker exhibits a strong presence with large populations as the forestry industry in these countries differs from Sweden in terms of what type of trees they use and how they manage dead wood. The purpose of this study is to assess whether an area at lake Erken’s northern shore called Hasselhorn in Stockholm County achieves the guidelines determined by Naturvårdsverket. Naturvårdsverket has determined that the white-backed woodpecker at least need 20m3/ha dead deciduous trees in a habitat and an average age of >80 years to be considered as an optimal area for the white-backed woodpecker. The focus area was localized with IR-images to determine an area rich with deciduous trees and an area of 100ha was drafted. Sixty sample points were randomized in the area. All living and dead trees at each points were measured with a tree caliper and clinometer to determine the amount of wood in m3/ha. Age was determined visually for each sample point. The study showed that Hasselhorn currently does no achieve the optimal status for all parameters in the study to make it a suitable habitat for the white-backed woodpecker. On the other hand, the area does meet the guideline set by Naturvårdsverket of more than 20m3/ha dead deciduous wood and more than 75% deciduous trees in the area, however it does not show an average age of >80 years. Species distribution of living deciduous trees exhibits large volumes of aspen, which is considered to be a main source of food since they contain the type of bugs preferred by the white-backed woodpecker. With the right conservation methods, the study shows that Hasselhorn can become a viable habitat for the white-backed woodpecker in the near future.

<p>This thesis presents predictive models for important variables concerning eutrophication effects in lakes. The keystone is a dynamic phosphorus model based on ordinary differential equations. By calculating mass fluxes of phosphorus into, within and out from a lake, the concentrations of different forms of phosphorus in different compartments of the lake are estimated.</p><p>The dynamic phosphorus model is critically tested and several improvements are presented, including two new compartments for colloidal phosphorus, a sub-model for suspended particulate matter (SPM) and new algorithms for lake outflow, water mixing, diffusion, water content and organic content of accumulation sediments are implemented. Predictions with the new version show good agreement against empirical data in five tested lakes.</p><p>The sub-model for SPM uses the same driving variables as the basic phosphorus model, so the inclusion of this model as a sub-model does not require any additional variables. The model for SPM may also be used as a separate model giving monthly predictions of suspended particulate matter in two water compartments and one compartment with SPM available for resuspension in ET-sediments.</p><p>Empirical data from Lake Erken (Sweden) and Lake Balaton (Hungary) are used to evaluate the variability in settling velocity of SPM. It is found that the variability is substantial and may be accounted for by using a dimensionless moderator for SPM concentration. Empirical data from accumulation area sediments in Lake Erken are used to develop a model for the dynamics of phosphorus sedimentation, burial and diffusion in the sediments. The model is shown to provide reasonable monthly predictions of four functional forms of phosphorus at different sediment depths.</p><p>Simulations with the lake phosphorus model using two different climate scenarios indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. Lake Erken, with a water retention time of 7 years, appears to be much more sensitive than two basins of Lake Mälaren (Sweden) with substantially shorter retention times. The implication would be that in eutrophic lakes with long water retention times, eutrophication problems may become serious if the future becomes warmer. This will be important in contexts of lake management when remedial measures against lake eutrophication have to be taken.</p>

This thesis presents predictive models for important variables concerning eutrophication effects in lakes. The keystone is a dynamic phosphorus model based on ordinary differential equations. By calculating mass fluxes of phosphorus into, within and out from a lake, the concentrations of different forms of phosphorus in different compartments of the lake are estimated. The dynamic phosphorus model is critically tested and several improvements are presented, including two new compartments for colloidal phosphorus, a sub-model for suspended particulate matter (SPM) and new algorithms for lake outflow, water mixing, diffusion, water content and organic content of accumulation sediments are implemented. Predictions with the new version show good agreement against empirical data in five tested lakes. The sub-model for SPM uses the same driving variables as the basic phosphorus model, so the inclusion of this model as a sub-model does not require any additional variables. The model for SPM may also be used as a separate model giving monthly predictions of suspended particulate matter in two water compartments and one compartment with SPM available for resuspension in ET-sediments. Empirical data from Lake Erken (Sweden) and Lake Balaton (Hungary) are used to evaluate the variability in settling velocity of SPM. It is found that the variability is substantial and may be accounted for by using a dimensionless moderator for SPM concentration. Empirical data from accumulation area sediments in Lake Erken are used to develop a model for the dynamics of phosphorus sedimentation, burial and diffusion in the sediments. The model is shown to provide reasonable monthly predictions of four functional forms of phosphorus at different sediment depths. Simulations with the lake phosphorus model using two different climate scenarios indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. Lake Erken, with a water retention time of 7 years, appears to be much more sensitive than two basins of Lake Mälaren (Sweden) with substantially shorter retention times. The implication would be that in eutrophic lakes with long water retention times, eutrophication problems may become serious if the future becomes warmer. This will be important in contexts of lake management when remedial measures against lake eutrophication have to be taken.

Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for banking sectors are used to measure occurrence risks of banking crises, generally observed with a rundown of bank deposits and widespread failures of financial institutions. In countries with a small number of banks, for example Turkey with 48 banks (BDDK, 2011), every bank may be considered to have a systematic importance since the failure of any individual bank may carry a potential threat to lead to a banking crisis. Taking into account this fact the present study focuses on EWSs in Turkey. Since there is no single correct EWS to apply to all cases, in this study, 300 models were constructed and tested to find models as accurate as possible by using a trial-and-error process and by searching optimal feature subset or classifier methods. Empirical results indicate that prediction accuracy did not increase significantly while we got closer to the actual occurrence of bankruptcy. An important finding of the study was that trends of financial ratios were very useful in the prediction of bank failures. Instead of failures as a result of instant shocks, the banks&#039 / failures followed through a path: first a downward movement affected the efficiency of the banks&#039 / officers and the quality of management structure measured with &quot / Activity Ratios&quot / , then the profitability of the banks measured with &quot / Profit Ratios&quot / declined. At last, the performance and the stability of banks&#039 / earnings stream measured with &quot / Income-Expenditure Structure Ratios&quot / and the level and quality of the banks&#039 / capital base, the end line of defense, measured with &quot / Capital Ratios&quot / . At the end of study, we proposed an ensemble model which produced probability ratios for the success rates of the banks. The proposed model achieved a very high success rate for the banks we considered.