This volume contains four essays on various topics in the field of financial econometrics. All four discuss the properties of high frequency financial data and its implications on the model choice when an estimate of the capital asset return volatility is in focus. The interest lies both in characterizing "stylized facts" in such series with time series models and in predicting volatility. The first essay, entitled A Survey of Recent Papers Considering the Standard &amp; Poor 500 Composite Stock Index, presents recent empirical findings and stylized facts in the financial market from 1987 to 1996 and gives a brief introduction to the research field of capital asset return volatitlity models and properties of high frequency financial data. As the title indicates, the survey is restricted to research on the well known Standard &amp; Poor 500 index. The second essay, with the title, Stylized Facts of Daily Return Series and the Hidden Markov Model, investigates the properties of the hidden Markov Model, HMM, and its capability of reproducing stylized facts of financial high frequency data. The third essay, Modelling the Conditional Mean and Conditional Variance: A combined Smooth Transition and Hidden Markov Approach with an Application to High Frequency Series, investigates the consequences of combining a nonlinear parameterized conditional mean with an HMM for the conditional variance when characterization of stylized facts is considered. Finally, the fourth essay entitled, Volatility Forecasting for Option Pricing on Exchange Rates and Stock Prices, investigates the volatility forecasting performance of some of the most frequently used capital asset return volatility models such as the GARCH with normal and t-distributed errors, the EGARCH and the HMM. The prediction error minimization approach is also investigated. Each essay is self-contained and could, in principle, be read in any order chosen by the reader. This, however, requires a working knowledge of the properties of the HMM. For readers less familiar with the research field the first essay may serve as an helpful introduction to the following three essays. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.</p>

Bakgrund: Den svenska börsen steg i slutet av 90-talet kraftigt för att därefter falla i en omfattning som kan mäta sig med den stora börskraschen 1929. Detta har påverkat många människors privatekonomi men samtidigt har rapporterats om fortsatt stark konsumtion. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka och förklara hur konsumtion och sparande påverkas av aktiebörsen. Metod: Kvantitativ statistisk metodik tillämpas i stor utsträckning i denna undersökning. Resultat: Det är främst"övriga tjänster"och eventuellt "bilar", "livsmedel" och "övriga varaktiga varor" som påverkas av kursnivån. Volatiliteten tycks påverka de flesta grupper förutom "övriga tjänster" och eventuellt "övriga varaktiga varor". Den marginella konsumtionsbenägenheten visar sig vara 0,74 från disponibel inkomst och omkring 0,02 från aktieförmögenhet och övrig finansiell förmögenhet. Förklaringar till att börsen inte påverkat konsumtionen mer kan vara att hushållen vill utjämna konsumtionen över en längre tidsperiod och att aktievinster till stor del jämställs med oväntad inkomst vilken går till sparande snarare än konsumtion.

Det råder vitt skilda meningar om tekniken för beräkning av den förväntade aktieavkastningen. Å ena sidan finns de som påstår att marknaden är effektiv, d v s att ny information återspeglas i aktiepriser på ett snabbt och effek- tivt sätt. Det lönar sig helt enkelt inte att försöka ”slå” marknaden genom att tillämpa några analysmetoder som helst. Andra avfärdar den effektiva marknadshypotesen och hävdar att det finns beprövade metoder med vars hjälp felprissättningar kan upptäckas och därmed ovanligt stora vinster tjänas. Syftet med denna studie är att, med en multifaktormodell, testa huruvida aktieavkastningen kan förutses med hjälp av företagsspecifika nyckeltal. Studien grundar sig på tvärsnittsdata, d v s månadsdata för företagsspecifika nyckeltal för de 68 företag noterade på Stockholmsbörsen. Tidsperioden, för vilken modellen testas, sträcker sig från februari 1996 – oktober 2004. Modellen söker förklara variationen i avkastningen samt förutse den förväntade avkastningen med hjälp av multipelregressionsanalys där förklaringsvariabler består av företagsspecifika nyckeltal. Det som konstateras är att modellens förmåga att förutse den förväntade avkastningen ökar avsevärt mot slutet av den undersökta perioden. En tänkbar implikation för modellen som undersöks i denna studie är ett förenklat urval av aktier som skulle bilda en optimal portfölj, förutsatt dess precision. Modellen ger eventuellt indikation på olika prissättningsanomalier, vars förekomster är svåra att upptäcka då de varierar över tiden och uppvisar olika mönster och samband med den faktiska och förväntade avkastningen. Att olika variabler över tiden uppvisar starkare och svagare samband med den faktiska avkastningen kan tyda på att anomalier är ostabila, vilket talar för en effektiv marknad.

This thesis comprises four papers concerning risk prediction. Paper [I] suggests a nonlinear and multivariate time series model framework that enables the study of simultaneity in returns and in volatilities, as well as asymmetric effects arising from shocks. Using daily data 2000-2006 for the Baltic state stock exchanges and that of Moscow we find recursive structures with Riga directly depending in returns on Tallinn and Vilnius, and Tallinn on Vilnius. For volatilities both Riga and Vilnius depend on Tallinn. In addition, we find evidence of asymmetric effects of shocks arising in Moscow and in the Baltic states on both returns and volatilities. Paper [II] argues that the estimation error in Value at Risk predictors gives rise to underestimation of portfolio risk. A simple correction is proposed and in an empirical illustration it is found to be economically relevant. Paper [III] studies some approximation approaches to computing the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall for multiple period asset re- turns. Based on the result of a simulation experiment we conclude that among the approaches studied the one based on assuming a skewed t dis- tribution for the multiple period returns and that based on simulations were the best. We also found that the uncertainty due to the estimation error can be quite accurately estimated employing the delta method. In an empirical illustration we computed five day Value at Risk's for the S&amp;P 500 index. The approaches performed about equally well. Paper [IV] argues that the practise used in the valuation of the port- folio is important for the calculation of the Value at Risk. In particular, when liquidating a large portfolio the seller may not face horizontal de- mandcurves. We propose a partially new approach for incorporating this fact in the Value at Risk and in an empirical illustration we compare it to a competing approach. We find substantial differences.

In the last few decades, vector autoregressive (VAR) models have gained tremendous popularity as an all-purpose tool in econometrics and other disciplines. Some of their most prominent uses are for forecasting, causality tests, tests of economic theories, hypothesis-seeking, data characterisation, innovation accounting, policy analysis, and cointegration analysis. Their popularity appears to be attributable to their flexibility relative to other models rather than to their virtues per se. In addition, analysts often use VAR models as benchmark models. VAR modeling has not gone uncriticised, though. A list of relevant arguments against VAR modelling can be found in Section 2.3 of this thesis. There is one additional problem which is rarely mentioned though, namely the often heavily biased estimates in VAR models. Although methods to reduce this bias have been available for quite some time, it has probably not been done before, at least not in any systematic way. The present thesis attempts to systematically examine the performance of bias-reduced VAR estimates, using two existing and one newly derived approximation to the bias. The thesis is orginanised as follows. After a short introductory chapter, a brief history of VAR modelling can be found in Chapter 2 together with a review of different representations and a compilation of criticisms against VAR models. Chapter 3 reports the results of very extensive Monte Carlo experiments serving dual purposes: Firstly, the simulations will reveal whether or not bias really poses a serious problem, because if it turns out that biases appear only by exception or are mainly insignificant, there would be little need to reduce the bias. Secondly, the same data as in Chapter 3 will be used in Chapter 4 to evaluate the bias approximations, allowing for direct comparison between bias-reduced and original estimates. Though Monte Carlo methods have been (rightfully) criticised for being too specific to allow for any generalisation, there seems to be no good alternative to analyse small-sample properties of complicated estimators such as these. Chapter 4 is in a sense the core of the thesis, containing evaluations of three bias approximations. The performance of the bias approximations is evaluated chiefly using single regression equations and 3D surfaces. The only truly new research result in this thesis can also be found in Chapter 4; a second-order approximation to the bias of the parameter matrix in a VAR(p) model. Its performance is compared with the performance of two existing first-order approximations, and all three are used to construct bias-reduced estimators, which are then evaluated. Chapter 5 holds an application of US money supply and inflation in order to find out whether the results in Chapter 4 can have any real impacts. Unfortunately though, bias reduction appears not to make any difference in this particular case. Chapter 6 concludes. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

This bachelor thesis aims to uncover the determinants of the economic growth in Mexico with an exogenous growth model. The study is based in an Augmented Solow Model em-ployed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil in "A contribution to the Empirics of the Economic Growth" (1992). The model uses annual data of Mexico from 1960-2007 and the regressions and tests are developed in the econometric package Stata 10 for eight different periods. The thesis not only uses the Effective Labour and Physical Capital as Inputs in the production Function, but also employs the variable of Human Capital as an economic determinant of growth in the production function. The results of the model correspond with the actual scenario in Mexico; more weight to the Effective Labour (76.34%) rather than to Human Capital (2.12%) or Physical Capital (21.54%) as determinants of growth.

I denna uppsats analyseras vilka huvudsakliga ekonomiska och strukturella faktorer som bestämmer den aggregerade efterfrågan på högskoleutbildning i Sverige. Den ekonomisk-teoretiska ansatsen fungerar sedan som underbyggnad till en ekonometrisk paneldataanalys där effekten av förändringar i ungdomsarbetslösheten på efterfrågan undersöks närmare. I den ekonometriska modelleringen inkluderas även avståndet till närmaste högskolecampus i en interaktionsterm med syftet att undersöka om effekten från förändringar i ungdomsarbetslösheten påverkas av det geografiska avståndet. Utifrån ett ekonomiskt angreppssätt beskrivs och analyseras den aggregerade efterfrågan utifrån utgångspunkten att den bestäms utifrån individers val att påbörja studier. Ur ett rationalitetsperspektiv kan olika faktorers påverkan på individers respektive nyttofunktion fungera som en förklaring till den aggregerade efterfrågans sammansättnig. Ett centralt begrepp är individens alternativkostnad som bl.a. påverkas av storleken på utbildningspremien och den givna situationen på arbetsmarknaden. Då arbetslösheten är den aspekt som undersöks närmare i denna uppsats kan alternativkostnaden betraktas ur ett perspektiv där incitamentet att påbörja studier är högre om alternativet för individen hade varit arbetslöshet. I den ekonometriska paneldataanalysen väljs antalet högskolenybörjare som mått på den aggregerade efterfrågan. Det föreligger en problematik i valet av ett efterfrågemått som innefattar faktiskt studerande då det finns ett simultant samband mellan efterfrågan och utbudet i formen av antalet utbildningsplatser. Valet av responsvariabel medför att efterfrågeöverskottet i formen av sökandetrycket inte fångas upp i undersökningen. Som förklaringsvariabel väljs ungdomsarbetslösheten i ålderskategorin 18-24 år då merparten av högskolenybörjarna finns representerade i denna åldersgrupp. Den ekonometriska studien är baserat på ett kommunspecifikt paneldatamaterial som hanteras genom en LSDV-modell där kommun- och tidsspecifika dummyvariabler introduceras för att hantera heterogeniteten mellan kommuner samt strukturella förändringar över den undersökta tidsperioden. Samtliga ekonometriska modeller påvisar ett statistiskt säkerställt kontracykliskt samband. Det blir fler högskolenybörjare när ungdomsarbetslösheten stiger vilket överensstämmer med tidigare studier. Sambandet kan förklaras med ett ogynnsamt arbetsmarknadsläge medför att fler individer har en låg alternativkostnad samtidigt som det med svenska utbildningssystemet kännetecknas av lättillgänglighet. I de modeller där det geografiska avståndet till närmaste campusort inkluderas som en interaktionsterm indikeras att ett ökat avstånd medför att en förändring i ungdomsarbetslösheten ger en större effekt på antalet högskolenybörjare. / In this thesis the primary economical and structural aspects which determine the aggregated demand for Swedish higher education are analysed. The economical approach also underlies the econometrical panel data analysis on how changes in the youth unemployment rate affect the demand. The econometrical study is based on a municipality specific panel data set. In the econometrical modeling the geographical distance to the nearest campus is included as a part of an interaction term. The purpose is to examine if the effect from changes in the youth unemployment is affected by the geographical distance. From an economical approach the determination of the aggregated demand is described and analysed from a perspective of individuals’ choice to study. The aggregated demand is, from a rationality point of view, considered to be composed of individual utility functions. A key term is the individual opportunity cost which i.e. is determined by the education premium and the current situation on the labour market. The opportunity cost can be derived as the varying incentives for commencing university studies depending on if the alternative would be unemployment. In the econometrical panel data analysis the aggregated demand is measured through the number of enrolled first-time freshmen. A demand measurement based on enrollment is problematic because of the existence of a simultaneous relationship between supply and demand, which impossible the estimation of the excess demand. The unemployment rate for the year group 18-24 olds represents the majority of enrolled first-time freshmen. The municipally specific panel data set are handled by a ”two-way fixed effects”-LSDV-model where municipality specific and time specific dummy variables is introduced to manage both heterogeneity among municipalities as well as structural changes during the investigated time period. All econometrical models indicate a statistical significant counter-cyclical relationship. An increased youth unemployment rate, leads to more enrolled beginners. These results are consistent with earlier studies. The connection can be explained by the existence of a larger number of individuals with a low opportunity cost in combination with the easy accessible Swedish education system. In those models where the geographical distance to the nearest campus is included as an interaction term, a longer distance indicates a higher sensitivity. A change in the youth unemployment rate affects the number of first-time freshmen more at a further distance.

<p> </p><p> </p><p>This bachelor thesis aims to uncover the determinants of the economic growth in Mexico with an exogenous growth model. The study is based in an Augmented Solow Model em-ployed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil in</p><p><em>"A contribution to the Empirics of the Economic Growth" </em>(1992). The model uses annual data of Mexico from 1960-2007 and the regressions and tests are developed in the econometric package Stata 10 for eight different periods. The thesis not only uses the Effective Labour and Physical Capital as Inputs in the production Function, but also employs the variable of Human Capital as an economic determinant of growth in the production function. The results of the model correspond with the actual scenario in Mexico; more weight to the Effective Labour (76.34%) rather than to Human Capital (2.12%) or Physical Capital (21.54%) as determinants of growth.</p><p> </p><p> </p>

Diss., Stockholm : Handelshögsk. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

This dissertation contains five essays in the field of time series econometrics. The main issue discussed is the lack of coherence between small sample and asymptotic inference. Frequently, in modern econometrics distributional results are strictly only valid for a hypothetical infinite sample. Studies show that the attained actual level of a test may be considerable different from the nominal significance level, and as a concequence, too many true null hypotheses will falsely be rejected. This leads, in the extension, to applied users that too often reject evidence in the data for theoretical predictions. In large, the thesis discusses how computer intensive methods may be used to adjust the test distribution, such that the actual significance level will coincide with the desired nominal level. The first two essays focus on how to improve testing for persistence in data, through a bootstrap procedure within a univariate framework. The remaining three essays are studies of multivariate time series models. The third essay considers the identification problem of the basic stationary vector autoregressive model, which is also the basic-line econometric specification for maximum likelihood cointegration analysis. In the fourth essay the multivariate framework is expanded to allow for components of different integrating order and in this setting the paper discusses how fractional cointegration affects the inference in maximum likelihood cointegration analysis. The fifth essay consider once again the bootstrap testing approach, now in a multivariate application, to correct inference on long-run relations in maximum likelihood cointegration analysis. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.