L’achèvement du marché intérieur de l’électricité réside dans la construction effective d’un ordre concurrentiel. Le droit de la concurrence constitue, en principe, l’unique norme d’encadrement du marché. Or, les nombreux dysfonctionnements concurrentiels dévoilent un bilan contrasté de la libéralisation. Ces résultats sont imputés à l’existence et à l’introduction de règlementations nationales, à l’instar de la tarification, qui affectent la transition concurrentielle du marché. Vingt ans après la décision d’ouvrir le marché à la concurrence, il n’existe pas un marché de l’électricité mais des marchés de l’électricité. Des normes de régulation sont donc introduites, en tant que technique d’accompagnement du phénomène d’ouverture à la concurrence et instrument correctif aux différentes failles de marché. S’ensuit un droit de la régulation de l’électricité aux côtés d’un droit de la concurrence. Mais cette régulation résulte également d’impératifs exogènes et endogènes au marché. L’électricité n’est pas une marchandise comme les autres. L’essentialité du bien électrique et ses externalités environnementales induisent un encadrement spécifique du marché. La protection du consommateur, la protection de l’environnement et la sécurité d’approvisionnement sont donc régies par des normes de régulation, voire des règlementations, aux incidences sur la transition concurrentielle. Source de complexité et d’incohérences juridiques, la plurifonctionnalité de l’électricité affecte le projet d’un ordre strictement concurrentiel du marché / The completion of the internal electricity market depends on the effective construction of a competitive order. Competition law acts therefore as the sole market framework standard. However, the numerous competitive inefficiencies reveal a mixed record of liberalisation. These results are attributed to the existence and introduction of national regulations, such as pricing, which affect the competitive transition of the market. The electricity market is thus marked by a dispute between member states and the European Union. Twenty years after the decision was made to open the market to competition, there is not an electricity market but several electricity markets. Regulatory standards are therefore introduced to complement the opening to competition and fix the various market failures. Introduced ab initio as a transitional and supplementary law, the multiplication of regulatory standards and the enhancement of their scope of application give them a market framework role. This creates a regulation law alongside competition law on the electricity market. But this regulation also results from exogenous and endogenous imperatives to the market. Electricity is not a commodity like others. The essentiality of the electric good and its environmental externalities shape a specific market framework. Consumer protection, environmental protection and security of supply are therefore governed by regulatory standards, or even regulations, which have an impact on the competitive transition. The electricity market is thus confronted with many legal inconsistencies. The multifunctionality of electricity affects the project of a strictly competitive market order

The power balance of an electrical power system is crucial to the quality of the delivered electricity as well as the security of supply. In a scenario where Swedish nuclear power plants are being phased out and replaced by renewable energy sources new constraints are added to the power balance equation since the production of many renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, are intermittent by nature. This leads to a situation where the currently available regulating power might have difficulties to manage the increasing frequency fluctuations in the power grid. One possible solution to the problem is to build gas turbines for the purpose of peak power generation capacity. An alternative option would be to increase customer flexibility; that is Demand Response. This master thesis investigates how the market for Demand Respond can be designed and which potential Demand Response volumes different policy programs might release. This is done through a mixed approach. Firstly, a scientific review of previously documented Demand Response experiences compares and categorizes different Demand Response programs in a typology based on the parameters cost, volume and feasibility. Subsequently an interview series with different market agents, predominantly through interviews with the Swedish energy intensive industry, identifies the existing Demand Response potential in Sweden and offers the paradigm needed to transfer the results to a future hypothetical situation. The typology of Demand Response programs and estimation of the future industrial Demand Response potential in Sweden are the main new knowledge contributions of this master thesis. The scope however is limited to the Swedish market geographically and focuses on the time horizon 2020-2050. It is also assumed that only existing technologies are likely to be implemented on a large scale over the given time horizon. The results of this master thesis suggest that a Real Time Pricing model would realize the largest potential of Demand Response and to a relatively low cost. This solution however requires actions and further development of both the pricing model and in technology. Firstly, all market agents must have free access to real time price information, something that is lacking today. Secondly, a smart grid with hourly meters is required. If policymakers consider security of supply to be more important than a low system cost, Direct Control or a continuation of the Strategic Reserve is to be preferred according to the conclusions of this report. Previous studies have placed the existing potential for industrial Demand Response in Sweden between 600 and 900 MW. This report suggests that the available volume is in the upper region of the mentioned interval already today and has potential to rise significantly in the future as industries become more aware of the concept and the transmission grid is becoming more flexible. Another driving force for increased Demand Response volumes are the increased price fluctuations which are expected as a consequence of a greater share of renewable energy sources. For the future Demand Response potential, a cost perspective is introduced and a distinction between different response durations is made. More specifically the results indicate that the potential industrial Demand Response volume will be about 1,500 MW in 2030, given a response duration time of 4 h and a spot price on 2,000 SEK/MWh. If 1,500 MW of peak generation capacity could be avoided through active Demand Side Management, it would reduce the system cost with about 350 Million SEK annually. Consequently, there is a business case for Demand Response and the issue is likely to be subject to further investigation and discussion in the future. On the long term however industrial Demand Response must be compared with other flexibility options, e.g. as import/export or energy storages but also residential Demand Response, and is in such case likely to be outcompeted due to its relatively high variable cost of providing capacity.

On the one hand, the demand response management and dynamical pricing supported by the smart grid had started to lead to fundamentally different energy consumption behaviours; On the other hand, energy supply has gone through a dramatic new pattern due to the emergence and development of renewable energy resources. Facing these changes, this thesis investigates one of the resulting challenges, which is how to integrate the wholesale market and the retail market into one framework in order to achieve optimal balancing between demand and supply. Firstly, based on the existing mechanisms of the wholesale and retail electricity markets, a simulation tool is proposed and developed. This enables the ISO to find the best balance between supply and demand, by taking into account the different objectives of the generators, retailers and customers. Secondly, a new market mechanism based on the interval demand is proposed in order to address the challenges of the unpredictable demand due to the demand response management programs. Under the proposed new market mechanism, the corresponding approaches are investigated in order to support the retailers to find their profit-optimal pricing strategies, the generators to develop their best bidding strategies, and the ISO to identify the market clearing price function in order to best balance supply and demand. In particular: 1) For the ISO, our designed mechanism could effectively handle unpredictable demand under the dynamic retail pricing. It also enables the realisation of the goals of dynamic pricing by utilising smart meters; 2) In the retail market, we extend the smart pricing model in the current research in order to enable the retailers to find the most-profitable pricing scheme under the proposed new mechanism with the demand-based piecewise cost (i.e., market clearing price) function; 3) For the wholesale market, we developed a pricing forecasting model in order to forecast a market clearing price. Based on this model, we analysed the optimal bidding strategies for a generator under an interval demand from the ISO. Simulation results are provided in order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

This Master Thesis conducts a survey of the process of the liberalization of the electricity market, exclusively in the context of the European Union. The method of the review of the contemporary literatury is used to analyze reforms in the electricity supply industry. The thesis provides readers with the basic characteristics of the liberalization of this strategic net industry. The main focus is on one particular reform-unbundling- as it influences all principles of the eletricity energy markets. Scholars argue there are direct advantages and at the same time direct disadvanatges resulting from these reforms and it is almost impossible to find a clear agreement on if positive or negative effects prevails. In the thesis there is an attempt to evaluate whether contemporary research literature is able to decide if the liberalization reforms will bring about pure benefits for participants of the electricity markets.

A common electricity market in Europe will in all probability lead to a levelling out of the electricity price, which implies that Swedish consumers will face higher electricity prices with a European structure. This new market situation will force industry and energy suppliers to take new essential measures as actors in a deregulated European electricity market. In this thesis it is shown how over 30 Swedish small and medium-sized industries can reduce their use of electricity by about 50%. When scaling up the result to include all Swedish industry, the measures will lead to a significant reduction in global CO2 emissions, and a situation where Sweden will have a net export of electricity. Changing industrial energy use towards increased use of district heating will consequently affect the local energy suppliers. As a local energy supplier invests in CHP and co-operates on heat with an industry that has altered its energy use, the system cost will be halved. Considering higher European electricity prices, the benefits will be even higher with possibilities to reduce global emission with over 350%. In Sweden where district heating is very well established, heat driven absorption technology is especially favourable since it will lead to cost effective electricity production and increased utilization time for a CHP plant. Vapour compression chillers have been compared with heat driven absorption cooling for a local energy utility with a district cooling network and for industries in a Swedish municipality with CHP. The results show that the higher the share of absorption technology is, in comparison to compression chillers, the lower the production cost will be for producing cooling. This thesis illustrates measures for Swedish industry and energy suppliers in a fully deregulated European electricity market that will shift the energy systems in the direction of cost-effectiveness and resource effectiveness. The thesis also shows that the benefits of the measures will increase even more when accounting with electricity prices with a higher European structures. To methodically change the use of electricity would be an economical way to increase the competitiveness of Swedish plant in relation to other European plants. Taking advantage of these particularly Swedish conditions will contribute to the creation of lean resource systems, and as a result help the whole EU region to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol. Altering industrial energy use towards less electricity and energy dependence will be a competitive alternative to new electricity production and help secure energy supply in the European Union.

Since the liberalisation of the energy market in Europe in the early 1990s, much opportunity to trade electricity as a commodity has arisen. One significant consequence of this movement is that market prices have become more volatile instead of its tradition constant rate of supply. Spot price markets have also been introduced, affecting the demand of electricity as companies now have the option to not only produce their own supply but also purchase this commodity from the market. Following the liberalisation of the energy market, hence creating a greater demand for trading of electricity and other types of energy, various types of options related to the sales, storage and transmission of electricity have consequently been introduced. Particularly, swing options are popular in the electricity market. As we know, swing-type derivatives are given in various forms and are mainly traded as over-the-counter (OTC) contracts at energy exchanges. These options offer flexibility with respect to timing and quantity. Traditionally, the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model is a very popular and standard approach for modelling the risk neutral price dynamics of underlyings. However, a limitation of this model is that it has very few degrees of freedom, as it does not capture the complex behaviour of electricity prices. In short the GBM model is inefficient in the pricing of options involving electricity. Other models have subsequently been used to bridge this inadequacy, e.g. spot price models, futures price models, etc. To model risk-neutral commodity prices, there are basically two different methodologies, namely spot and futures or so-called term structure models. As swing options are usually written on spot prices, by which we mean the current price at which a particular commodity can be bought or sold at a specified time and place, it is important for us to examine these models in order to more accurately inculcate their effect on the pricing of swing options. Monte Carlo simulation is also a widely used approach for the pricing of swing options in the electricity market. Theoretically, Monte Carlo valuation relies on risk neutral valuation and the technique used is to simulate as many (random) price paths of the underlying(s) as possible, and then to average the calculated payoff for each path, discounted to today's prices, giving the value of the desired derivative. Monte Carlo methods are particularly useful in the valuation of derivatives with multiple sources of uncertainty or complicated features, like our electricity swing options in question. However, they are generally too slow to be considered a competitive form of valuation, if any analytical techniques of valuation exist. In other words, the Monte Carlo approach is, in a sense, a method of last resort. In this thesis, we aim to examine a numerical method involved in the pricing of swing options in the electricity market. We will consider an existing and widely accepted electricity price process model, use the finite volume method to formulate a numerical scheme in order to calibrate the prices of swing options and make a comparison with numerical solutions obtained using the theta-scheme. Further contributions of this thesis include a comparison of results and also a brief discussion of other possible methods.

One of the key steps of the liberalization of the Turkish electricity market has been the estab- lishment of PMUM (Turkish day ahead electricity market). The aim of this study is to explore the dynamics of electricity prices observed in this market and their relation with temperature observed in Turkey. The electricity price process is studied as a univariate process and the same process is studied along with temperature together as a two-dimensional process. We give a fairly complete model of temperature. We observe that the electricity prices in Turkey exhibit many of the features that similar prices exhibit in other world markets. In particular, Turkish day ahead prices are seasonal / every year the price seems to follow a path similar to the one years preceding it. To simplify our analysis we focus our study to a 35 day pe- riod where every year the prices show a relatively simple behavior. We study the effects of the fluctuations in temperature in this period on the fluctutations in the day ahead electricity price.

The effects of the deregulation of the electricity market 1996 in Sweden on short-term hydropower regulation are unknown. This report investigates patterns in subdaily regulation in the Ångerman River Basin during the period 1993-2011. Differences in subdaily flows and zero flow events between the periods 1993-1995 and 1996-2011 were studied by analyzing hourly data from 8 regulated and 8 unregulated locations with four subdaily flow variation indices. No correlations between the market deregulation and the regulation intensity in the Ångerman River basin were detected. The number of days natural ranges of variability were exceeded and the magnitude of subdaily variation were significantly higher at regulated locations. Zero flow events increased substantially when the periods 1993-2007 and 2008-2011 were compared. Significant correlations were detected in the summer periods between dry years and high magnitudes for the indices that measured variation in volume and low magnitudes for subdaily flow reversals. Zero flow events in the summer periods increased during dry years if the period 2008-2011 were excluded. The major conclusions are that the deregulation of the electricity market has not affected the subdaily regulation of the Ångerman River and that the regulated sites show highly unnatural subdaily variations. Regulation intensity and zero flows events increases during summertime in dry years and the latter also increased substantially after 2007. The current regulation regime is considered harmful for riverine ecosystems and the high and increasing levels of subdaily flow alteration shows the urgent need of national directives for subdaily hydropower operation.

The objective of the study is to analyse the conditions for connection of residential buildings in heat sparse areas to district heating systems in order to increase electricity production in municipal combined heat and power plants. The European electricity market has been assumed to be fully deregulated. The relation between connection of heat sparse areas, increased electricity and heat production as well as electricity prices, fuel prices and emissions rights is investigated. The results of the study show that there is potential to expand the district heating market to areas with lower heat concentrations in the cities of Gavle, Sandviken and Borlange in Sweden, with both economic and environmental benefits. The expansion provides a substantial heat demand of approximately 181 GWh/year, which results in an electricity power production of approximately 43 GWh/year. Since the detached and stand-alone houses in the studied heat sparse areas have been heated either by oil boiler or by direct electricity, connection to district heating also provides a substantial reduction in emissions of CO2. The largest reductions in CO2 emissions are found to be 211 ktonnes/year assuming coal-fired condensing power as marginal electricity production. Connection of heat sparse areas to district heating decrease the system costs and provide a profitability by approximately 22 million EURO/year for the studied municipalities if the price of electricity is at a European level, i.e. 110 EURO/MWh. Sensitivity analysis shows, among other things, that a strong relation exists between the price of electricity and the profitability of connecting heat sparse areas to district heating systems. / Original Publication:Shahnaz Amiri and Bahram Moshfegh, Possibilities and consequences of deregulation of the European electricity market for connection of heat sparse areas to district heating systems, 2010, Applied Energy, (87), 7, 2401-2410.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.02.002Copyright: Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam.http://www.elsevier.com/

The focus of this thesis is to explore a new mechanism to give added incentive to invest in new capacities in deregulated electricity markets. There is a lot of concern in energy markets, regarding lack of sufficient private sector investment in new capacities to generate electricity. Although some markets are using mechanisms to reward these investments directly, e.g., by governmental subsidies for renewable sources such as wind or solar, there is not much theory to guide the process of setting the reward levels. The proposed mechanism involves a long term planning model, maximizing the social welfare measured as consumers’ plus producers’ surplus, by choosing new generation capacities which, along with still existing capacities, can meet demand. Much previous research in electricity capacity planning has also solved optimization models, usually with continuous variables only, in linear or non-linear programs. However, these approaches can be misleading when capacity additions must either be zero or a large size, e.g., the building of a nuclear reactor or a large wind farm. Therefore, this research includes binary variables for the building of large new facilities in the optimization problem, i.e. the model becomes a mixed integer linear or nonlinear program. It is well known that, when binary variables are included in such a model, the resulting commodity prices may give insufficient incentive for private investment in the optimal new capacities. The new mechanism is intended to overcome this difficulty with a capacity price in addition to the commodity price: an auxiliary mathematical program calculates the minimum capacity price that is necessary to ensure that all firms investing in new capacities are satisfied with their profit levels. In order to test the applicability of this approach, the result of the suggested model is compared with the Ontario Integrated Power System Plan (IPSP), which recommends new generation capacities, based on historical data and costs of different sources of electricity generation for the next 20 years given a fixed forecast of demand.