Ecosystems transition quickly in the Anthropocene, whereas biodiversity adapts more slowly. Here we simulated a shifting woodland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau of western North America by using as its proxy over space and time the fundamental niche of the Arizona black rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). We found an expansive (= end-of-Pleistocene) range that contracted sharply (= present), but is blocked topographically by Grand Canyon/Colorado River as it shifts predictably northwestward under moderate climate change (= 2080). Vulnerability to contemporary wildfire was quantified from available records, with forested area reduced more than 27% over 13 years. Both 'ecosystem metrics' underscore how climate and wildfire are rapidly converting the Plateau ecosystem into novel habitat. To gauge potential effects on C. cerberus, we derived a series of relevant 'conservation metrics' (i.e. genetic variability, dispersal capacity, effective population size) by sequencing 118 individuals across 846 bp of mitochondrial (mt)DNA-ATPase8/6. We identified five significantly different clades (net sequence divergence = 2.2%) isolated by drainage/topography, with low dispersal (F-ST = 0.82) and small sizes (2N(ef) = 5.2). Our compiled metrics (i.e. small-populations, topographic-isolation, low-dispersal versus conserved-niche, vulnerable-ecosystem, dispersal barriers) underscore the susceptibility of this woodland specialist to a climate and wildfire tandem. We offer adaptive management scenarios that may counterbalance these metrics and avoid the extirpation of this and other highly specialized, relictual woodland clades.

Submitted by Cláudia Bueno (claudiamoura18@gmail.com) on 2016-05-19T19:46:17Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - André Felipe Alves de Andrade - 2016.pdf: 2007118 bytes, checksum: 69341ce5bc6c459857d1feff5d92366e (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-05-20T13:54:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - André Felipe Alves de Andrade - 2016.pdf: 2007118 bytes, checksum: 69341ce5bc6c459857d1feff5d92366e (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-20T13:54:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - André Felipe Alves de Andrade - 2016.pdf: 2007118 bytes, checksum: 69341ce5bc6c459857d1feff5d92366e (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-26 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Coral reefs are of extreme importance to both nature and society, due to being responsible for several services and harbouring hundreds of species. Despite such critical importance, reef corals current suffered heavy losses since the Anthropocene, with 20% of world´s corals damaged beyond recovery due to human pressure and coastal development. This scenario is even worse, since corals are especially vulnerable to climate change and the entire ecosystem could go extinct by 2050. In this study we focus on comparing the already established impacts from human development and the yet happen losses from climate change on Brazilian corals, a unique fauna that still have gaps in knowledge. We created environmental suitability models for 24 species and quantified individual losses from both climate change and human activities. From the individual results we derived an overall pattern, in which we found out that future losses from climate alteration are equivalent to current losses from human activities. We then used the spatial distribution of those activities and key areas for conservation, determined with software Zonation, to select six areas in the Brazilian exclusive economic zone where proactive and reactive conservation strategies should be implanted, given its importance to biodiversity and concentrated anthropogenic impacts. Overall suitability losses were of approximately 30% for both sources and 60% of the areas will continue to be suitable in the future. Therefore, Brazilian corals will experience heavy losses from climate, especially the loss of highly suitable areas, which are compared to effects from human economic activities. Coral situation is likely to be even worse, if we were to consider bleaching, ocean acidification and diseases, events expected to increase with the rising temperature. / Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used for conservation purposes, predicting species invasion, evolutionary aspects and a whole array of applications. However, for most cases, evaluating the efficiency of those models poses as problematic, as commonly used methods (i.e. random methods) do not assure the required independence between data used to create the model and data used to evaluate the model. We developed a new transferabilitybased framework that ensures the much-needed independence between subsets. We created an alternate approach that geographically splits occurrence datasets, while intrinsically controls issues related to previous transferability approaches, such as overfitting, extrapolation and sampling bias. We used 26 Atlantic coral species to perform three different geographical divisions quantifying the effect of different splits on model predictive efficiency. We demonstrate that transferability should be used as an effective method to evaluate ENMs. Geographical split of the area in deciles proved as a reliable evaluation method, assuring independence between datasets and being less prone to common transferability issues. Our odds-and-evens framework provides improvements to the ongoing debate of ENMs evaluating by its transferability. This new method corrects the issue of artificiality causing sampling bias and overfitting, common in previous methodologies, while also is less prone to extrapolation issues, a common problem in transferability approaches. Moreover, the framework appears as a feasible and useful alternative to the problematic and commonly used random partition of datasets evaluation.

Amphibienpopulationen sind weltweit bedroht. Für fundierte Entscheidungen im Naturschutz ist ein wissenschaftliches Hintergrundwissen notwendig. Eine wichtige Komponente ist die Verbreitung der Arten und die Gründe hierfür. Dies setzt auch Klarheit bezüglich des taxonomischen Status voraus. Vernachlässigte Regionen liegen meist in den Tropen. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, untersucht die vorliegende Arbeit die Makroökologie westafrikanischer Amphibien. Eine neue Art der Familie Phrynobatrachidae wird beschrieben. Anschließend werden die taxonomischen Unterschiede zweier Mitglieder der Familien der Hyperoliidae und der Arthroleptidae untersucht. Dies ebnet den Weg für die Makroökologie. Es wird analysiert, ob Westafrika eine einzigartige biogeographische Region ist. Die Untersuchung zeigen, dass Westafrika in der Tat einzigartig ist. Die Ähnlichkeiten innerhalb der Region sind größer als die innerhalb ähnlicher Habitate aus unterschiedlichen Regionen. Der Cross River ist die wichtigste Barriere. Mehrere geographische Zonierungen innerhalb Westafrikas werden entdeckt. Es wird untersucht, ob der Chytrid Pilz, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, (Bd), ein wichtiger Faktor beim Rückgang der Amphibien Populationen, in West Afrika vorkommt. Bisher gibt es keinen positiven Nachweis westlich Nigerias. Dennoch sagen Modelle geeignete Habitate für Bd vorher. Die wahrscheinlichste Erklärung ist, dass die Dahomey Gap als natürliche Barriere die Ausbreitung von Bd verhindert. Als letztes werden die Nischen westafrikanischer Amphibien eruiert. Für die meisten Arten werden Nischenmodelle berechnet. Dies bestätigt bereits bekannte Gebiete hoher Alpha Diversität und zeigt bisher unbekannte Gebiete auf. Des Weiteren werden Erklärungen für unterschiedliche Verbreitungsgebietsgrößen gesucht. Generell wird die Nischenbreite hierfür verantwortlich gemacht. Die vorliegenden Daten lassen allerdings auch den Schluss zu, dass das Ausbreitungsvermögen das beobachtete Muster ebenfalls erklären kann. / Amphibian populations are declining globally. For informed conservation decisions a sound scientific background is needed. One major component is species distribution and the underlying causes. This also requires clarity on the taxonomic status. Often neglected regions are located in the tropics. In order to fill this gap, the present thesis examines the macroecology of West African amphibians. A new species of the family Phrynobatrachidae is described. Afterwards, the taxonomic differences between morphologically similar members of the families Hyperoliidae and Arthroleptidae are discussed. Beside other studies, this sets the field for macroecology. It is tested whether West Africa is a unique biogeographic region. The similarity of amphibian assemblages from Sub-Saharan Africa is analysed and it is shown that West Africa contains unique assemblages. Similarities within the region are higher than similarities between habitats across different regions. The main barrier towards Central Africa is the Cross River. Several geographic divisions within West Africa are detected. It is examined whether the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), one important factor for amphibian population declines in many other regions, occurs in West Africa. So far there is no positive record west of Nigeria. However, models predict that environmental suitability for Bd is high. The most plausible explanation for the absence is that the Dahomey Gap acted as a natural barrier against the spread of the Bd. Finally, the niches of West African amphibians are investigated. For most species environmental niche models are calculated. This confirms previously known areas of high alpha diversity and so far unknown species rich areas are detected. In a further study, explanations for differing range sizes are searched for. Niche breadth is commonly assumed to be the general cause. However, the analysed data also suggests that dispersal ability can also explain the observed pattern.