Charles University in Prague Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies Bibliographic Record of a an Academic Thesis Title in the language of the thesis (as recorded in SIS) Terrorism and market risk assessment Subtitle Translation of the title into English/Czech (as recorded in SIS) Terrorism and market risk assessment Type of the Thesis Master's thesis Author: Bc. Jean Lacroix Year 2015 Advisor of the thesis Mgr Magdalena Patakova Number of pages 77 Awards Specialization Economics (CFS) Abstract in Czech Abstract in English Terrorist attacks are one of the best examples of fast evolving institutional framework. In that context investors are impacted by a lot of pieces of information in a limited period of time. This disturbs the trading behavior and consequently the distribution of returns on the period following the attack (the information was not predicted and directly affects the investment choices). The present thesis focuses on the risk aspect of such disturbances. If terrorist attacks reshape the distribution of returns, it may modify the risk measures (multivariate and univariate). The particularity of the change in distribution implies that the observed translation into financial measures of risk will not be equal among all indicators. First a distinction exists between univariate...

Beginning in the early 1990s several countries, including Australia, have pursued programs of deregulation and restructuring of their electricity supply industries. Dissatisfaction with state-run monopoly suppliers and a desire for increased competition and choice for consumers have been the major motivations for reform. In Australia, the historical, vertically-integrated, government-owned electricity authorities were separated into separate generation, transmission, distribution and retail sectors in each State and a competitive, wholesale market for electricity, the National Electricity Market (NEM) began operation in December 1998. The goal of deregulation was (and remains) increased competition in electricity supply, so that consumers may enjoy wider choice and lower prices. The first benefit has largely been delivered but it is arguable whether the second benefit of lower prices has been realised. Increased competition has come at the price of increased wholesale price volatility, which brings with it increased cost as market participants seek to trade profitably and manage the increase in price risk. In the NEM, generators compete to sell into a pool market and distributors purchase electricity from the pool at prices determined by demand and supply, on a half-hourly basis. These market-clearing prices can be extremely volatile. Electricity prices are generally characterised by significant seasonal patterns, on an intra-day, weekly and monthly basis, as demand and supply conditions vary. Prices are also characterised by strong mean-reversion and extremely high spikes in price. While long-run mean prices typically range between $30 and $45 per megawatt hour, prices can spike to levels above $9,000 or $10,000 per megawatt hour from time to time. These spikes tend to be sporadic and very short-lived, rarely lasting for more than an hour or two. Although infrequent, spikes are the major contributor to price volatility and their evolution and causes need to be investigated and understood. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate and model Australian electricity prices. The research work presented is mostly empirical, with the early analytical chapters focusing on investigating the presence and significance of seasonal factors and spikes in electricity price and demand. In subsequent chapters this work is extended into analysis of the underlying volatility processes and the interaction between extreme values in demand and price is specifically investigated. The findings of the thesis are that while the characteristics of strong seasonal patterns and spikes that are generally observed in similar electricity markets are present in the NEM in both price and demand, there is significant variation in their presence and effect between the regional pools. The study also finds that while time-varying volatility is evident in the price series there is again some variation in the way this is characterised between states. A further finding challenges the accepted wisdom that demand peaks drive price spikes at the extremes and shows empirically that price spikes are more likely to be caused by supply disruptions than extremes of demand. The findings provide useful insight into this highly idiosyncratic but economically important national market.

This study presents an observation of the impact of Opec announcements on the behavior of sector indexes returns of the Stockholm stock market. It looks at the effects of the announcements on the stock returns of three sectors indices of theStockholm stock market: Energy, Telecommunications and Financial using the general market index return (OMX Stockholm 30) as the explanatory variable. The time period analyzed is limited to the years of 2005 to 2007 when markets worldwide were taken by euphoria and panic caused by the anticipation of the upcoming financial crisis given that it has been well proved that such events do cause a substantial effect on stock prices. In order to estimate the reaction of the sector index returns over Opec announcements, the author uses the event studies and constructs an extended version of the CAPM model by introducing dummy variables for each day of the set of announcements over the event window. It is used stationary time series data and the returns on the three sector indices were subdivided in an event window of 5 days around the announcement dates in continuous intervals of 3 years according to the Stockholm stock market trading days. As to improve the results obtained with the CAPM model, the author uses the Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) which adds all the coefficients of the dummy variables which are the returns in excess of what is expected. The empirical findings for the event study reveal that none of the dummy variable coefficients were significant which indicate that none of the sector indexes is sensitive to the announcements. For the CAR results, the Telecommunication was the only sector that responded to news. Most likely because the general market index OMXST30 has proved to create extra returns around these dates. That is probably the reason that the three sector indexes could not produce significant additional response.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / MBA Professional Report / The purpose of this paper is to examine and analyze whether or not there was a statistically significant reaction in financial markets to the announcements of U.S. defense contractor consolidations (mergers and acquisitions) from January 1990 to December 2006. This analysis is accomplished through the use of two series of event studies, employing first the arithmetic and then the logarithmic returns against the S&P 500 index, involving the top five defense contractors: Boeing, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman. Many studies have been conducted using the event study methodology, and the results have shown in some cases that stock prices do respond to new information. The assumpton has been maintained that the market responds rationally to such announcements. In contrast, the announcements of the acquisition of publicly traded firms by other publicly traded firms have not always had a consistently significant beneficial effect on the shareholder wealth of the acquiring firms (Schipper & Thompson, 1983). Results of this case study further support the latter assertion, and add to the body of research involving event studies.

Pesquisas foram realizadas em alguns países procurando-se verificar impactos causados no valor gerado para os acionistas de empresas adquirentes advindos de processos de aquisições no setor bancário. Neste contexto, o problema desta pesquisa é analisar se aquisições ocorridas entre 1995 e 2004 de bancos comerciais e bancos múltiplos, atuantes no Brasil, ocasionaram um retorno anormal nas ações dos respectivos bancos adquirentes, também atuantes no país. Em termos de metodologia científica utiliza-se a metodologia de estudo de evento. Nesta abordagem, utilizou-se um modelo de mercado para o cálculo dos retornos esperados e o teste de Corrado (1989) para verificar a significância dos retornos anormais. Para as aquisições de bancos comerciais e múltiplos ora analisadas, não se constatou nenhum movimento anormal por parte dos investidores, ou seja, os retornos das ações destes bancos não apresentaram retornos anormais estatisticamente significativos. Isto não significa que estes processos de aquisições não geraram valor para os acionistas, mas que, dentro do universo então investigado, se constatou que, no momento da aquisição, a percepção do mercado acionário não foi positiva nem negativa, considerando-se as respectivas aquisições como um todo. / Researches were carried out in some countries trying to check impacts caused in the value to the shareholder from the merging company deriving from acquisitions process in the bank sector. In this context, the problem of this research is analyze if the acquisitions that happened between 1995 and 2004 from commercial and multiple banks, operating in Brazil, caused an abnormal return in the shares from the respective buyer banks, also operating in Brazil. In terms of scientific methodology, an event study methodology is used. In this approach of event study, a market model for the calculation of the waited returns was used and the test of Corrado (1989) was used to verify the significance of those abnormal returns. For the acquisitions of commercial and multiple banks analyzed, no abnormal movement on the part of the investors was evidenced, or either, the returns of the shares of these banks had not presented significant statistics abnormal returns. It doesn’t mean that these processes of acquisitions had not generated value for the shareholders, but that, inside of the investigated universe, we could evidence that, at the moment of the acquisition, the perception of the shareholding market was not positive and nor negative, considering the respective acquisitions as a whole

Föreliggande uppsats undersöker om det har funnits någon indikation av insiderhandel för tio utvalda företag på Stockholmsbörsen under andra halvan av 2004 när dessa företag presenterar vinstvarningar. Uppsatsen beskriver huvuddragen av den Svenska insider-lagstiftning, och framlägger argument för en effektiv lagstiftning både från ett ekonomiskt och också från ett juridiskt perspektiv. De tio företagen har analyserats under en trettio dagars period. Slutsatsen är att det har förekommit indikationer på insiderhandel i två företag under perioden fram till vinstvarningen. Denna uppsats presenterades och försvarades våren 2005 vid Internationella Handelshögskolan i Jönköping. / This thesis analyzes if there has been any indication of insider trading for ten selected-companies on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during the second half of 2004 when these companies have reported loss announcements. It outlines the Swedish insider leg-islation, and put forward arguments for an effective insider legislation from an eco-nomic and legal perspective. The ten companies have been analyzed during a thirty days period. The conclusion is that there is signs of insider trading in two companies during the period prior to the loss announcement date. This thesis was presented and defended in the spring of 2005 at Jönköping International Business School.

<p>Föreliggande uppsats undersöker om det har funnits någon indikation av insiderhandel för tio utvalda företag på Stockholmsbörsen under andra halvan av 2004 när dessa företag presenterar vinstvarningar. Uppsatsen beskriver huvuddragen av den Svenska insider-lagstiftning, och framlägger argument för en effektiv lagstiftning både från ett ekonomiskt och också från ett juridiskt perspektiv.</p><p>De tio företagen har analyserats under en trettio dagars period. Slutsatsen är att det har förekommit indikationer på insiderhandel i två företag under perioden fram till vinstvarningen.</p><p>Denna uppsats presenterades och försvarades våren 2005 vid Internationella Handelshögskolan i Jönköping.</p> / <p>This thesis analyzes if there has been any indication of insider trading for ten selected-companies on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during the second half of 2004 when these companies have reported loss announcements. It outlines the Swedish insider leg-islation, and put forward arguments for an effective insider legislation from an eco-nomic and legal perspective.</p><p>The ten companies have been analyzed during a thirty days period. The conclusion is that there is signs of insider trading in two companies during the period prior to the loss announcement date.</p><p>This thesis was presented and defended in the spring of 2005 at Jönköping International Business School.</p>

This paper applies an intuitive approach based on stock market data to a unique dataset of large concentrations during the period 1990-2002 to assess the effectiveness of European merger control. The basic idea is to relate announcement and decision abnormal returns. Under a set of four maintained assumptions, merger control might be interpreted to be effective if rents accruing due to the increased market power observed around the merger announcement are reversed by the antitrust decision, i.e. if there is a negative relation between announcement and decision abnormal returns. To clearly identify the events' competitive effects, we explicitly control for the market expectation about the outcome of the merger control procedure and run several robustness checks to assess the role of our maintained assumptions. We find that only outright prohibitions completely reverse the rents measured around a merger's announcement. On average, remedies seem to be only partially capable of reverting announcement abnormal returns. Yet they seem to be more effective when applied during the first rather than the second investigation phase and in subsamples where our assumptions are more likely to hold. Moreover, the European Commission appears to learn over time. (authors' abstract)

Este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar se há impacto das republicações das demonstrações contábeis das empresas com ações negociadas na Bovespa no período de 2000 a 2010, no preço de suas ações. O estudo parte do pressuposto de que o mercado Brasileiro de ações é semiforte. A metodologia utilizada nesta pesquisa foi em parte qualitativa ao descrever a amostra e suas características assim como quantitativa na forma dos testes de diferenças de média. Os resultados dos testes mostram que ao se analisar toda a amostra como um único grupo, os retornos anormais encontrados não mostraram diferença significativa em comparação com os valores esperados calculados, mas quando analisados em segmentações distintas pelo tipo de motivação à republicação, foram encontrados evidências de que há diferença significativa entre as amostras das republicações das demonstrações contábeis voluntárias e obrigatórias. Assim como também foram encontrados evidências de que pode haver diferença significativa entre as amostras segmentadas pela natureza do erro apresentado com justificativa para a republicação da demonstração contábil, tanto nos casos de mensuração, quanto classificação e reconhecimento. A mesma evidência é apresentada nos gráficos das médias dos retornos anormais calculados para este estudo. / This work aims to check for impact of restatements of the companies whose shares are traded on the São Paulo Stock Exchange in the period from 2000 to 2010, in its stock price. The study assumes that the Brazilian stock market is semistrong. The methodology used in this research was qualitative in part to describe the sample and its characteristics as well as in the form of quantitative tests of differences in average. The test results show that to analyze the entire sample as a single group, the abnormal returns showed significant difference found in comparison with the expected values calculated, but when analyzed in distinct cleavages by the kind of motivation to republication, were found evidence that there is significant difference between the samples of republications of voluntary and mandatory financial statements. So how were also found evidence that there may be significant differences between the segmented samples by the nature of the error made with justification for the republication of the financial statement, both in case of measurement, classification and recognition. The same evidence is presented in the graphs of the averages of the abnormal returns calculated for this study.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar se há impacto das republicações das demonstrações contábeis das empresas com ações negociadas na Bovespa no período de 2000 a 2010, no preço de suas ações. O estudo parte do pressuposto de que o mercado Brasileiro de ações é semiforte. A metodologia utilizada nesta pesquisa foi em parte qualitativa ao descrever a amostra e suas características assim como quantitativa na forma dos testes de diferenças de média. Os resultados dos testes mostram que ao se analisar toda a amostra como um único grupo, os retornos anormais encontrados não mostraram diferença significativa em comparação com os valores esperados calculados, mas quando analisados em segmentações distintas pelo tipo de motivação à republicação, foram encontrados evidências de que há diferença significativa entre as amostras das republicações das demonstrações contábeis voluntárias e obrigatórias. Assim como também foram encontrados evidências de que pode haver diferença significativa entre as amostras segmentadas pela natureza do erro apresentado com justificativa para a republicação da demonstração contábil, tanto nos casos de mensuração, quanto classificação e reconhecimento. A mesma evidência é apresentada nos gráficos das médias dos retornos anormais calculados para este estudo. / This work aims to check for impact of restatements of the companies whose shares are traded on the São Paulo Stock Exchange in the period from 2000 to 2010, in its stock price. The study assumes that the Brazilian stock market is semistrong. The methodology used in this research was qualitative in part to describe the sample and its characteristics as well as in the form of quantitative tests of differences in average. The test results show that to analyze the entire sample as a single group, the abnormal returns showed significant difference found in comparison with the expected values calculated, but when analyzed in distinct cleavages by the kind of motivation to republication, were found evidence that there is significant difference between the samples of republications of voluntary and mandatory financial statements. So how were also found evidence that there may be significant differences between the segmented samples by the nature of the error made with justification for the republication of the financial statement, both in case of measurement, classification and recognition. The same evidence is presented in the graphs of the averages of the abnormal returns calculated for this study.