Esta pesquisa investiga o comportamento não-linear do pass-through de taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira, durante o período de câmbio flutuante (2000-2015), a partir de um modelo de equilíbrio geral dinâmico estocástico com mudança de regime Markoviana (MS-DSGE). Para isso, utilizamos a metodologia proposta por Baele et al. (2015) e um modelo Novo-Keynesiano básico, sobre o qual incluímos novos elementos na curva de oferta agregada e uma nova equação para a dinâmica cambial. Encontramos evidências de existência de dois regimes distintos para o repasse cambial e para a variância dos choques sobre a inflação. No regime denominado de “Normal”, o pass-through de longo prazo é estimado em 0.0092 pontos percentuais para inflação, dado um choque cambial de 1%, contra 0.1302 pontos percentuais no regime de “Crise”. A superioridade do modelo MS-DSGE sobre o modelo com parâmetros fixos é constatada de acordo com diversos critérios comparativos. / This research investigates the non-linearity of exchange rate pass-through on the Brazilian economy during the floating exchange rate period (2000-2015) in a Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework (MS-DSGE). We apply methods proposed by Baele et al. (2015) in a basic New Keynesian model, with the addition of new elements to the aggregate supply curve and a new equation for the exchange rate dynamics. We find evidence of two distinct regimes for the exchange rate pass-through and for the volatility of shocks to inflation. During the regime named “Normal”, the long run pass-through is estimated as 0.0092 percent points to inflation, given a 1% exchange rate shock, in contrast to 0.1302 percent points during the “Crisis” regime. The MS-DSGE model appears superior to the fixed parameters model according to various comparison criteria.

Esta pesquisa investiga o comportamento não-linear do pass-through de taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira, durante o período de câmbio flutuante (2000-2015), a partir de um modelo de equilíbrio geral dinâmico estocástico com mudança de regime Markoviana (MS-DSGE). Para isso, utilizamos a metodologia proposta por Baele et al. (2015) e um modelo Novo-Keynesiano básico, sobre o qual incluímos novos elementos na curva de oferta agregada e uma nova equação para a dinâmica cambial. Encontramos evidências de existência de dois regimes distintos para o repasse cambial e para a variância dos choques sobre a inflação. No regime denominado de “Normal”, o pass-through de longo prazo é estimado em 0.0092 pontos percentuais para inflação, dado um choque cambial de 1%, contra 0.1302 pontos percentuais no regime de “Crise”. A superioridade do modelo MS-DSGE sobre o modelo com parâmetros fixos é constatada de acordo com diversos critérios comparativos. / This research investigates the non-linearity of exchange rate pass-through on the Brazilian economy during the floating exchange rate period (2000-2015) in a Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework (MS-DSGE). We apply methods proposed by Baele et al. (2015) in a basic New Keynesian model, with the addition of new elements to the aggregate supply curve and a new equation for the exchange rate dynamics. We find evidence of two distinct regimes for the exchange rate pass-through and for the volatility of shocks to inflation. During the regime named “Normal”, the long run pass-through is estimated as 0.0092 percent points to inflation, given a 1% exchange rate shock, in contrast to 0.1302 percent points during the “Crisis” regime. The MS-DSGE model appears superior to the fixed parameters model according to various comparison criteria.

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近年來，由於國際化的開展，國際貿易愈來愈普及，匯率因此扮演一個重要的角色。貶值固然可以提高一國的出口競爭力，卻可能造成通貨膨脹而不利本國消費，激烈的匯率波動更會造成兩國間貿易的不確定性。因此，各國中央銀行為了穩定外匯市場及商品市場，並為了追求低而穩定的通貨膨脹率而干預匯率波動。依據Devereux and Engle (2003)，跨國廠商在訂貿易財價格時可採生產者貨幣訂價法（producer-currency pricing, PCP）或當地貨幣訂價法（local-currency pricing, LCP），在此兩種訂價方式下，匯率的轉嫁程度會有所不同，此亦可能會改變貨幣政策的總體經濟效果。 本文在一小型開放的動態隨機一般均衡模型（DSGE）下，加入央行的資產負債表與貨幣政策法則，探討當外生衝擊發生時，在不同的匯率轉嫁程度下，央行採取彈性匯率或管理浮動匯率對總體經濟變數產生的影響。 / With the development of the global economy, the international trade has become more common. When the country trades with other countries, exchange rate plays an important role. The currency depreciation may generate the current account surplus, but may lead to higher inflation and hurt the domestic consumption. Drastic exchange rate fluctuations may result in the uncertainty in trades. As the result, central banks may intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize exchange rate movements. Devereux and Engle (2003) build up the two-country DSGE model to examine macroeconomic effects of monetary policy under different degree of exchange rate pass-through. They consider two cases: producer-currency-pricing (PCP) where the exchange rate pass-through is complete and expenditure-switching effect exists, and local-currency-pricing (LCP) where the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete and there is no expenditure-switching effect. In the paper, we follow the small-open-economy DSGE model in Kollmann (2002) by including the balance sheet and alternative monetary policy rules of the monetary policy to examine the different macroeconomic effects under different degrees of exchange rate pass-through.

In this thesis, we examine the exchange rate pass-through phenomenon in the Czech Re- public over 1998:1-2014:1 period. As our vector autoregression results indicate, short-term pass-through effect slowed down and prolongated its duration substantially. Consequently, the accumulated value to be transmitted increased compared to previous findings. In the case of exchange rate pass-through effect to CPI, the accumulated response after 18 months accounts for about 40-60 per cent. In this regard, our time-varying results using unique Chebyshev Time Polynomials points to period 2008-2014 to be the leading cause. It seems that during macroeconomically less stable periods the exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic tends to increase. Even though the consensus on the pass-through lev- els and its development over time is rather scarce, we find support for our conclusions. More interestingly, having in mind November's currency interventions of the Czech Na- tional Bank to weaken koruna (and thus avoiding deflation), our results reveal that this measure has become much more effective in the latest years (as consequence of the crisis) than previous literature suggested. Following up on that, it seems that exchange rate regained some of its rather historical importance while conducting monetary policy...

台灣的經濟發展，仰賴對外貿易甚鉅。廠商如何因應匯率的變動，在國際競爭激烈的貿易市場中策略性的定價以取得優勢，一直是國際貿易與金融發展上重要的議題。因此，本論文包括三篇文章，依序透過台灣進口物價、出口物價，以及人造纖維梭織布的出口價格，探討匯率轉嫁與市場取價的相關議題。以下就每篇文章的重點摘要如下。 第一篇主要驗證「菜單成本」(menu costs) 存在，所產生之不對稱匯率轉嫁行為。由於菜單成本的存在，出口商必須在調價所產生的菜單成本，以及不調價對其市場競爭力的減損中，進行權衡取捨(trade-off)。我們首先透過模型推導，說明在此情況下，出口商唯有在匯率變動超過某一水準（門檻）時， 才會因應匯率變動進行調價。這意謂若匯率波動幅度較小時，出口商囿於菜單成本不會調整價格，進口國將面臨完全匯率轉嫁；而若匯率變動幅度夠大，出口商才會調整價格以維持其市場競爭力，而產生不完全匯率轉嫁。為驗證並說明此一不對稱匯率轉嫁現象，我們利用門檻迴歸模型(threshold regression model)進行台灣進口品是否有不對稱轉嫁之實證分析。結果顯示，以匯率變動幅度為門檻變數下，當匯率變動幅度小於門檻值3%時，匯率轉嫁程度高達58.7%;而匯率變動幅度高於門檻值3%時，則無顯著之匯率轉嫁。 我們因此認為菜單成本的存在，確實可能導致匯率不對稱轉嫁行為。 第二篇則應用門檻迴歸模型檢驗台灣出口物價是否因菜單成本導致在匯率變動幅度不同時，產生不同程度調整加成的出口定價行為，導致不對稱匯率轉嫁。 實證結果顯示，當匯率變動幅度低於門檻2.5%時，調整出口價格的幅度為27%。反之，當匯率變動幅度超過門檻值時，相較於前者，調價幅度增加至42%。經檢定兩者有顯著差異，證實有不對稱匯率轉嫁。上述不對稱匯率轉嫁的實證結果與理論預期並未完全相符。我們認為可能的原因在於出口商考量當期市佔率對未來利潤的潛在影響力，因此即使當期匯率變動幅度小，仍選擇微幅調價，藉以維持市場優勢與價格競爭力。亦即菜單成本可能並非影響其定價行為的關鍵因素。此外，廠商也有可能考量其在短期無法立即因應需求而擴張產能，因此即使匯率變動幅度小，仍選擇調價穩定進口價格，如此可避免因產能不足無法接單而流失客戶。再者，受限於資料的取得，我們採用總體出口物價資料，因此僅能呈現出平均的定價行為，而無法凸顯個別產業的出口定價行為。上述皆有可能是造成理論預期與實證結果不完全一致的原因。 為修正前兩篇使用總體資料的缺點，並進一步瞭解出口商因應匯率變動時是否依不同目標市場決定不同的調整加成幅度，在第三篇中本文使用人造纖維梭織布產業資料，主要探討在不完全競爭市場的結構下，出口商面對匯率變動時的「市場取價」行為。由於紡織業為台灣創匯產業，早期以出口胚布和成衣服飾品為主。到1980年代以後，逐漸地轉為以出口紗與成品布為主。在2005年全面取消全球紡織品配額後，紡織業的競爭更加激烈。儘管台灣有許多紡織廠外移至大陸及東南亞國家生產，使得台灣布料的出口額逐年減少。然而，台灣的人造纖維梭織布的出口單價卻有上升的趨勢。因此，本文主要探討台灣自1999年至2009年，人造纖維梭織布出口至美國、中國、香港及印尼等前四大出口目的國，因應匯率變動的出口定價行為是否具有市場取價的特性。此研究有助於我們瞭解產業競爭的過程與廠商的定價行為。實證結果顯示，台灣人纖梭織布的出口有市場取價的能力。對於出口至美國及香港的人纖梭織布，出口商會因應匯率等比例調整加成，自行吸收匯率變動對進口價格的影響，以穩定進口價格(即 local currency pricing stability)。對於出口至中國及印尼的人纖梭織布，則未有明顯的證據支持類似的調價行為。

本論文探討不同的物價環境對匯率轉嫁程度的影響。有別於既有文獻將通貨緊縮納入低通膨的區間一併討論，本論文特別區分通貨緊縮與低且正的通膨區間，估計不同物價環境下的匯率轉嫁效果。 利用門檻迴歸模型（threshold model）及台灣1981-2008年的資料，且區分能源價格及非能源價格，本文的實證結果顯示，通貨緊縮考慮與否將影響匯率轉嫁程度與通膨、通縮環境的關係。不同於既有文獻發現匯率轉嫁效果與通膨環境呈正相關，本文發現通貨緊縮環境下的匯率轉嫁效果會提高。此外，包含能源價格之匯率轉嫁效果隨物價環境變化的幅度較大，與既有文獻的看法一致。 因此，在匯率轉嫁效果與物價環境的分析上，明確區分通貨緊縮的情況有其必要性，否則可能形成偏誤之推論。 / This dissertation incorporates inflation and deflation in the analysis of exchange rate pass-through at different price levels. Because the existing literature generally consider deflation as part of low inflation, pass-through estimates tend to be considered the same for these two regimes. This study separates the effects of deflation and low positive inflation and estimates the pass-through for different price levels. This dissertation uses a nonlinear model with aggregate and disaggregate import prices data from 1981–2008 in Taiwan to first examine the pass-through for two regimes of high inflation and low inflation. The results confirm the notion in the literature that a positive relationship exists between pass-through and inflation. Then, this dissertation extends the model to a three-regime setting, including high inflation, low positive inflation, and deflation. When deflation is clearly defined in a three-regime model, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is found to be increasing in both high inflation and deflation. The positive relationship at all price levels is no longer valid while the effect of deflation is separated from that of low inflation. In Taiwan, the pass-through becomes inversely greater as the inflation rate falls into a deflationary regime. That the pass-through is higher in a deflationary regime became particularly obvious after the 1997 financial crisis. Contrary to the results predicted by the positive relationship, this analysis does not find an unlimited downward trend for the pass-through. A rebound occurs in the degree of pass-through once deflation is clearly identified, and this pattern is also found for half of the importing industries categorized using the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). In addition, the results are consistent with the notion that oil prices usually fluctuate much more than the prices of other imports. The estimates show that the pass-through changes the most for fuels and related materials. Obviously, fluctuations in the price of oil influence the measurement of the pass-through. The increase in the pass-through found in a deflationary regime becomes smaller when oil prices are excluded.

This thesis consists of five separate papers, broadly within the field of International Finance. The first paper, An Empirical Analysis of the Currency Denomination in International Trade, investigates the choice of currency in international trade transactions by Swedish exporting firms. It uses an extensive dataset on payment transactions between foreign importers and Swedish exporting firms. It is the first paper to examine currency invoicing at such a disaggregated level. The main findings are that high exchange rate volatility reduces the likelihood of using the importers currency while high GDP and GDP per capita in the importing country increases the likelihood. A large market share of a third country increases the likelihood of using the third country's currency. A further finding is a decreased use of Swedish krona and a rise in the use of the euro as a vehicle currency. State Dependent Pricing, Invoicing Currency and Exchange Rate Pass-Through, written jointly with Martin Flodén, analyzes exchange rate pass-through in a dynamic model with menu costs. In the paper, we provide a link between the fixed and flexible price analyses by specifying a dynamic framework with exogenous choice of exporting currency, but with endogenous pricing decisions. We consider the pricing strategies of firms that produce in a home country, sell on a foreign market, and can change the price in response to exchange rate fluctuations, while being subject to menu costs. Our main finding is that when the exporter prefers to set price in the importer’s currency, the exporter also changes prices less frequently than if price was set in the exporter’s home currency. The intuition is that in this setting, the optimal currency choice is the one that on average minimizes the difference between fixed and flexible price profits, and thereby the frequency of price updates. When the importer’s currency is preferred it leads to limited pass-through and a low correlation between exchange rate movements and import prices. The third paper, Demand and Distance: Evidence of Cross Border Shopping , written jointly with Marcus Asplund and Richard Friberg, uses data from 287 Swedish municipalities to estimate how responsive alcohol sales are to foreign prices, and relate the sensitivity to the location's distance to the border. Typical results suggest that the elasticity with respect to the foreign price is around 0.4 in the border region; moving 200 (400) kilometers inland reduces it to 0.2 (0.1).  For example, a 10 percent reduction in the Danish price of spirits causes a fall in per capita sales of roughly 4 percent at the border (Malmö). This large cross price elasticity is almost half the own price elasticity. The effect diminishes gradually as one moves further from the border, but fall in sales is estimated to drop below 1 percent only at 460 kilometer from the border. Not until we reach 1000 kilometers can we reject that the effect is zero. Common Currencies and Equity Prices: Evidence from a Political Event, uses a political event, the Swedish referendum on whether or not to join the European Monetary Union (EMU), as a natural experiment to examine the relationship between common currencies and the market value of exporting firms. If Sweden would have voted to join the EMU, exchange rate uncertainty as well as transaction costs would have been greatly reduced for many exporting companies. Prior to the referendum, these potential gains (adjusted for the probability of joining) should have been included in equity prices. The day after the referendum that probability of was zero and one would expect a decline in equity prices of exporting firms. We find evidence of statistically significant negative abnormal returns on the trading day after the election for only two out of fifteen examined industry indices. The small effects found in this study are in line with earlier research that finds a weak relationship between exchange rates and equity prices. The fifth paper, When is a Lower Exchange Rate Pass-Through Associated with Greater Exchange Rate Exposure?, written jointly with Martin Flodén and Witness Simbanegavi, we study the relationship between exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate exposure (the relation between profits and exchange rates) under flexible prices. We introduce a convex cost function and study the effects of changing the elasticity of costs with respect to output. We do this both in a model of monopolistic competition as well as in the oligopoly models used by Bodnar et al (2002). We find that increasing the convexity of costs reduces both exchange rate pass-through and exposure, both under monopolistic competition and in duopoly settings. The conclusion is thus that if industries differ mainly on the supply side, this would imply a positive correlation between pass-through and exposure. However, our extension does not affect the result in Bodnar et al. that exchange rate pass-through and exposure should be negatively correlated across industries if industries differ mainly on the demand side, more specifically in the substitutability between domestically produced and imported goods. / <p>Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006, S. 3-12: sammanfattning, s. 15-120: 5 uppsatser</p>

The main aim of this thesis is to explain the inflation dynamics in Turkey within a theoretically consistent empirical framework. The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is chosen as the basis model for our analysis because, by describing the inflation process within an intertemporal optimizing dynamic general equilibrium model, it provides a rigorous analytical groundwork for credible welfare and policy analysis. We have contributed to the literature by developing a NKPC formulation that is novel in the literature: A constant elasticity of substitution (CES) type of production function incorporating imported and domestically produced intermediate goods was combined with incomplete exchange rate pass through to import prices. The short-run inflation dynamics were analyzed within the context of this new specification by estimating the model&rsquo / s highly nonlinear structural parameters that capture the price-setting behavior in Turkey for period 1988:1 - 2009:4. Our findings suggest that this NKPC formulation can explain the 1994 and 2000-01 crises as well as the current environment of low inflation achieved with the adoption of the implicit and fully fledged inflation targeting regimes quite well. As a policy application we explored the effects of the inflation targeting framework adopted after the 2000-01 crises on the parameters characterizing the inflation process in Turkey. The subsample econometric results suggested that the inflation targeting framework applied was quite successful in decreasing inflation inertia in Turkey. Thus, should the success of the inflation targeting regime continue, this should be taken as an opportunity to reduce inflation substantially with very low output losses.

Univ., Diss.--Zugl.: Oslo, 2007.