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<p>In the first chapter, I conduct an eye-tracking experiment to measure how subjects allocate attention over a price chart while they predict future stock returns. I confirm that the attention allocation reflects how subjects form expectations from past price information. The measure of expectation based on eye-tracking quantitatively fits the actual forecasts submitted by subjects. Easily recognizable patterns in data receive disproportionately more attention: Subjects spend much more time reading recent as well as extreme trends and price levels. Such heuristics in information acquisition are heterogeneous across subjects and lead to inferior forecast precision. Overall, the results provide direct evidence for investor beliefs hypothesized by theories of return extrapolation. </p> <p><br></p> <p>In the second chapter, co-authored by Sergey Chernenko and Huseyin Gulen, we use data on scrip dividends, which give shareholders the option to receive additional shares instead of cash dividends, to investigate how investors form expectations of future returns. Shareholders are more likely to elect to receive dividends in shares when recent past returns are higher, especially when returns are positive and volatile. Actions based on extrapolative beliefs are stronger in small firms, growth firms, and firms with low institutional ownership. Finally, take-up rates of scrip dividends negatively predict both short- and long-run future returns.</p>

付記する学位プログラム名: 霊長類学・ワイルドライフサイエンス・リーディング大学院 / 京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第23747号 / 理博第4837号 / 新制||理||1692(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科生物科学専攻 / (主査)教授 平田 聡, 教授 伊谷 原一, 教授 村山 美穂 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

This study utilized eye-tracking to investigate 63 intermediate-level university Chinese foreign language (CFL) learners' real-time radical preferences. Radicals are components of Chinese characters and give clues to the meanings and pronunciations of the character. This study aimed to answer the following research questions: (1) What type of radicals (semantic/phonetic) do CFL readers most rely on when reading characters? (2) Does reliance on one type of radical (semantic/phonetic) correlate with accuracy in character recognition? (3) Does awareness of semantic/phonetic radicals affect the accuracy of character recognition or reliance on radicals in real-time processing? The results found that participants demonstrated a phonetic bias in that they had more proportion of looks on phonetic over semantic radicals in real-time reading. Furthermore, participants' radical awareness and radical identification scores positively correlated with accurate character recognition. Pedagogical applications drawn from this study suggest that future instructors should explicitly teach radical identification to CFL learners to facilitate character decoding.

Yes / It has been proposed that mentalising involves retrodicting as well as predicting behaviour, by inferring previous mental states of a target. This study investigated whether retrodiction is impaired in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). Participants watched videos of real people reacting to the researcher behaving in one of four possible ways. Their task was to decide which of these four “scenarios” each person responded to. Participants’ eye movements were recorded. Participants with ASD were poorer than comparison participants at identifying the scenario to which people in the videos were responding. There were no group differences in time spent looking at the eyes or mouth. The findings imply those with ASD are impaired in using mentalising skills for retrodiction.