Quick clay slides are quite rare but often leads to major consequences for the society. These type of slides are complex and the true causes leading to a slide is difficult to map since the evidence is destroyed during the slide. Because of this, different theories develop of the causes of the slide based on the same information. It is also problematic to back-calculate the sliding event because the commonly applied concept of perfectly plastic limite quilibrium cannot be applied on many of the landslides in quick clay. The objectives of this thesis were to construct a fault tree that facilitate risk identification and risk analysis of quick clay slides and to evaluate the applicability of the constructed fault tree, especially in the feasibility study and design phase. Uncertainties within the subject require a careful approach when dealing with quick clay. An implementation of a fault tree for quick clay slides in a risk management could reduce the risk of a slide and better understand the phenomenon. Two case studies were approached with the created fault tree and two advanced calculation methods that account for the special behaviour of quickclay. The use of a qualitative fault tree analysis in combination with calculation methods enables an evaluation of isolated singular events that in the end can lead to a quick clay slide. With the possibility to study isolated events, the implementation of more advanced calculation methods may be facilitated in an early stage to predict and prevent quick clay slides. / Kvicklerskred är sällsynta men leder ofta till stor skada för samhället. Dessa skred är komplexa och orsaken till utlösandet av skredet är svårt att identifiera då bevisen förstörs under händelseförloppet. Detta leder till att olika teorier om orsaken av kvicklerskred kan variera från samma information. Det är också svårt att beräkna skredets omlopp i efterhand den vanliga beräkningsmetoden baseras på idealplastiska samband, något som inte går att applicera på kvicklera. Målet med denna studie var att konstruera ett felträd som underlättar riskidentifiering och riskanalyser av kvicklerskred. Målet var även att utvärdera användandet av felträdet i en byggnadsprocess, framförallt under förstudien och under projekteringsskedet. Osäkerheter inom området kräver en försiktig arbetsmetod när kvicklera finns i områden. Att använda sig av ett felträd för kvicklerskred i en riskhantering skulle kunna minska risken för ett skred och samtidigt öka systemförståelsen över fenomenet. Två fallstudier gjordes med det konstruerade felträdet, under dessa fältstudier gjordes även beräkningar med två avancerade beräkningsmetoder som tar hänsyn till det töjningsmjukande beteendet hos kvicklera. Användningav ett kvalitativt felträd i kombination med beräkningsmetoder möjligör en utvärdering av isolerade händelser som i slutändan kan leda till ett kvicklerskred. Möjligheten av att studera isolerade händelser kan underlätta en implementering av mer avancerade beräkningsmetoder i ett tidigt skede och på så vis förutse och förhindra kvicklerskred.

L'introduction de systèmes instrumentés dédiés aux applications de sécurité impose l'évaluation de leur sûreté de fonctionnement. On utilise généralement pour cela les bases de données de fiabilité génériques. Cependant, le retour d'expérience pour ces systèmes qui présentent en général des défaillances rares est insuffisant pour valider les résultats obtenus. En outre, la collecte de données de fiabilité et leur extrapolation à d'autres composants introduisent des incertitudes. Les travaux de cette thèse portent sur la problématique de la prise en compte des incertitudes relatives aux données de fiabilité des composants pour l'évaluation de la sûreté de fonctionnement des systèmes par le formalisme des sous ensembles flous. La méthodologie proposée est appliquée à l'évaluation des probabilités de défaillance des Systèmes Instrumentés de Sécurité (SIS) en présence de données de fiabilité imprécises. Nous introduisons deux nouveaux facteurs d'importance pour aider le concepteur. En outre, nous proposons une méthodologie d'aide à la conception des SIS basée sur la modélisation par réseaux de fiabilité et l'optimisation par des algorithmes génétiques de la structure des SIS pour le respect des niveaux d'intégrité de sécurité (SIL) exigés / The use of safety related systems imposes to evaluate their dependability. Laboratory data and generic data are often used to provide failure data of safety components to evaluate their dependability parameters. However, due to the lower solicitation of safety systems in plant, safety components have not been operating long enough to provide statistical valid failure data. Furthermore, measuring and collecting failure data have uncertainty associated with them, and borrowing data from laboratory and generic data sources involve uncertainty as well. Our contribution is to propose a fuzzy approach to evaluate dependability parameters of safety systems when there is an uncertainty about dependability parameters of systems components. This approach is applied to determine the failure probability on demand of Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS) in presence of uncertainty. Furthermore, we present an optimal design of SIS by using reliability graphs and genetic algorithms to identify the choice of components and design configuration in a SIS to meet the required SIL

For railways, risk analysis is carried out to identify hazardous situations and their consequences. Until recently, classical methods such as Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) were applied in modelling the linear and logically deterministic aspects of railway risks, safety and reliability. However, it has been proven that modern railway systems are rather complex, involving multi-dependencies between system variables and uncertainties about these dependencies. For train derailment accidents, for instance, high train speed is a common cause of failure; slip and failure of brake applications are disjoint events; failure dependency exists between the train protection and warning system and driver errors; driver errors are time dependent and there is functional uncertainty in derailment conditions. Failing to incorporate these aspects of a complex system leads to wrong estimations of the risks and safety, and, consequently, to wrong management decisions. Furthermore, a complex railway system integrates various technologies and is operated in an environment where the behaviour and failure modes of the system are difficult to model using probabilistic techniques. Modelling and quantification of the railway risk and safety problems that involve dependencies and uncertainties such as mentioned above are complex tasks. Importance measures are useful in the ranking of components, which are significant with respect to the risk, safety and reliability of a railway system. The computation of importance measures using FTA has limitation for complex railways. ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Possible) risk acceptance criteria are widely accepted as ’\'best practice’’ in the railways. According to the ALARP approach, a tolerable region exists between the regions of intolerable and negligible risks. In the tolerable region, risk is undertaken only if a benefit is desired. In this case, one needs to have additional criteria to identify the socio-economic benefits of adopting a safety measure for railway facilities. The Life Quality Index (LQI) is a rational way of establishing a relation between the financial resources utilized to improve the safety of an engineering system and the potential fatalities that can be avoided by safety improvement. This thesis shows the application of the LQI approach to quantifying the social benefits of a number of safety management plans for a railway facility. We apply Bayesian Networks and influence diagrams, which are extensions of Bayesian Networks, to model and assess the life safety risks associated with railways. Bayesian Networks are directed acyclic probabilistic graphical models that handle the joint distribution of random variables in a compact and flexible way. In influence diagrams, problems of probabilistic inference and decision making – based on utility functions – can be combined and optimized, especially, for systems with many dependencies and uncertainties. The optimal decision, which maximizes the total benefits to society, is obtained. In this thesis, the application of Bayesian Networks to the railway industry is investigated for the purpose of improving modelling and the analysis of risk, safety and reliability in railways. One example application and two real world applications are presented to show the usefulness and suitability of the Bayesian Networks for the quantitative risk assessment and risk-based decision support in reference to railways.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:55:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 IvanovitchMDS_TESE_Capa_ate_pag78.pdf: 3947167 bytes, checksum: ce8af4212a09f9d5cf62d132879a91d3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-21 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / Ensuring the dependability requirements is essential for the industrial applications since faults may cause failures whose consequences result in economic losses, environmental damage or hurting people. Therefore, faced from the relevance of topic, this thesis proposes a methodology for the dependability evaluation of industrial wireless networks (WirelessHART, ISA100.11a, WIA-PA) on early design phase. However, the proposal can be easily adapted to maintenance and expansion stages of network. The proposal uses graph theory and fault tree formalism to create automatically an analytical model from a given wireless industrial network topology, where the dependability can be evaluated. The evaluation metrics supported are the reliability, availability, MTTF (mean time to failure), importance measures of devices, redundancy aspects and common cause failures. It must be emphasized that the proposal is independent of any tool to evaluate quantitatively the target metrics. However, due to validation issues it was used a tool widely accepted on academy for this purpose (SHARPE). In addition, an algorithm to generate the minimal cut sets, originally applied on graph theory, was adapted to fault tree formalism to guarantee the scalability of methodology in wireless industrial network environments (< 100 devices). Finally, the proposed methodology was validate from typical scenarios found in industrial environments, as star, line, cluster and mesh topologies. It was also evaluated scenarios with common cause failures and best practices to guide the design of an industrial wireless network. For guarantee scalability requirements, it was analyzed the performance of methodology in different scenarios where the results shown the applicability of proposal for networks typically found in industrial environments / Garantir os requisitos de dependabilidade ? fundamental para as aplica??es industriais, onde falhas podem conduzir a defeitos cujas consequ?ncias impactam em preju?zos econ?micos e principalmente danos ambientais e riscos aos operadores. Assim, diante da relev?ncia do tema, esta tese prop?em uma metodologia para an?lise da dependabilidade de redes industriais sem fio (WirelessHART, ISA100.11a, WIA-PA) ainda na fase de projeto. Entretanto, a proposta pode ser facilmente estendida para as fases de manuten??o e expans?o da rede. A proposta utiliza a teoria de grafos e o formalismo de ?rvores de Falhas para criar automaticamente um modelo anal?tico a partir de uma dada topologia de rede industrial sem fio, onde a dependabilidade possa ser avaliada. As m?tricas de avalia??o suportadas compreendem confiabilidade, disponibilidade e MTTF (tempo m?dio para falha) da rede, como tamb?m medidas de import?ncia dos dispositivos, aspectos de redund?ncia e defeitos em modo comum. Ressalta-se que a proposta independe de qualquer ferramenta para analisar quantitativamente as m?tricas visadas. Contudo, para prop?sito de valida??o da proposta utilizou-se uma ferramenta amplamente aceita na academia para esse fim (SHARPE). Adicionalmente, um algoritmo para gera??o dos cortes m?nimos originalmente aplicado na teoria de grafos foi adaptado para o formalismo das ?rvores de Falhas com o objetivo de garantir escalabilidade da metodologia ?s redes industriais sem fio (< 100 dispositivos). Finalmente, a metodologia proposta foi validada a partir de cen?rios t?picos encontrados em ambientes industriais, como topologias estrela, linha, cluster e mesh. Foram tamb?m avaliados cen?rios com defeitos em modo comum e um conjunto de pol?ticas a serem seguidas na cria??o de uma rede industrial sem fio. Para garantir aspectos de escalabilidade, uma an?lise de desempenho foi conduzida, onde pode-se observar a aplicabilidade da metodologia para as redes tipicamente encontradas em ambientes industriais

The dissertation thesis with the topic „Simulation Modelling of Electrical Drives for Selected Critical Applications“ focuses on the area of given applications in civil aviation. The selected application that the thesis deals with is an electrically driven and electronically controlled fuel pump supplying fuel to an aviation motor of the APU type. The thesis gives a comprehensive description of the design cycle of the unit and demonstrates implementing all the required critical functions. In the course of the design of the unit modern techniques in mathematical modelling, simulation, verification, monitoring and prediction of the operation status of airborne equipment were uses to the utmost extent. The purpose of these was to show the suitability of their application with regard to decreasing design time and cost, increasing lifetime and servicing intervals, as well as increasing user comfort and decreasing price. At the same time the required reliability was to be kept. The thesis also aims to prove and verify the suitability of using electronically commutated dc motors in critical applications in civil aviation. To reach this goal, it is necessary to design a robust drive control which would meet the given reliability requirements.

The dissertation thesis with the topic „Simulation Modelling of Electrical Drives for Selected Critical Applications“ focuses on the area of given applications in civil aviation. The selected application that the thesis deals with is an electrically driven and electronically controlled fuel pump supplying fuel to an aviation motor of the APU type. The thesis gives a comprehensive description of the design cycle of the unit and demonstrates implementing all the required critical functions. In the course of the design of the unit modern techniques in mathematical modelling, simulation, verification, monitoring and prediction of the operation status of airborne equipment were uses to the utmost extent. The purpose of these was to show the suitability of their application with regard to decreasing design time and cost, increasing lifetime and servicing intervals, as well as increasing user comfort and decreasing price. At the same time the required reliability was to be kept. The thesis also aims to prove and verify the suitability of using electronically commutated dc motors in critical applications in civil aviation. To reach this goal, it is necessary to design a robust drive control which would meet the given reliability requirements.

This thesis deals with the application of Markov chains for the production of concrete products. The theoretical part is focused on clarifying the concepts of risk management and describes the procedures for dealing with classical Markov chains. There are presented basics of fuzzy logic and finally there is explained the procedure using fuzzy logic in calculating of classical Markov chains in the subsection entitled Fuzzy Markov chains. The practical part describes production process, namely concrete pavements. On this production process is applied knowledge from the theoretical part and there is a comparison and evaluation of two methods of Marcov chains calculation (classic and fuzzy approach).

The master thesis deals with the development of the tool for risk analysis support in information security. At first we perform a theoretical basis for security development of lifecycle process (SDL). Afterwards the theory of risk analysis based on fault tree analysis is described. Considering this knowledge base system was designed and implemented. Next chapter describes the best practice refer to the typical example of use and presents the potencial using of this tool in practice. Final chapter deals with the possibility of future expansion of this application.

The thesis deals with project management body of knowledge with focus on a risk management. It explained the importance of risk management in software developing projects. Risk management cycle and used methodology is described. The core unit of second part is requirements analysis for risk management support system, description of the application via UML and implementation of application which was created in development environment NetBeans IDE 6.5 in Java language. Conclusion of my thesis contains a short summary and possible way of extension.

No description available.