<p>The seismic risks to a structure or a set of structures in a region are usually determined by generating fragility curves that provide the probability of a building responding in a certain manner for a given level of ground motion intensity. Developing fragility curves, however, is challenging as it involves the computationally expensive task of obtaining the maximum response of the selected structures to a suite of ground motions representing the seismic hazard of the region selected. </p><p>This study presents a methodology to develop surrogate models for the prediction of the maximum responses of buildings to ground motion excitation. Data-driven surrogate models using simple machine learning techniques and physics-based surrogate models using the space mapping technique to map the low-fidelity responses obtained using a multi-degree of freedom shear building model to the high-fidelity values are developed for the prediction of the maximum roof drift ratio and the maximum story drift ratio of a chosen 15-story steel moment-resisting frame building with varying structural properties in California. The predictions of each of these surrogate models are analyzed to assess and compare the performance, capabilities, and limitations of these models. Best practices for developing surrogate models for the prediction of maximum responses of structures to ground motion are recommended.</p><p>The results from the development of data-driven surrogate models show that the spectral displacement is the best intensity measure to condition the maximum roof drift ratio, and the spectral velocity is the best intensity measure to condition the maximum story drift ratio. Fragility analysis of the structure is thus conducted using maximum story drift as the engineering demand parameter and spectral velocity as the intensity measure. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted using the physics-based surrogate model to estimate the maximum story drifts for ground motions that are incrementally scaled to different intensity levels. Maximum likelihood estimates are used to obtain the parameters for a lognormal distribution and the 95% confidence intervals are obtained using the Wald confidence interval to plot the fragility curves.</p><p>Fragility curves are plotted both with and without variations in the structural properties of the building, and it is found that the effects of variability in ground motions on the fragility are far higher than the effects of the randomness of structural properties. Finally, it is found that about 65 ground motion records are needed for convergence of the parameters of the lognormal distribution for plotting fragility curves by using Monte Carlo simulation.</p>

Isolated adult rat myocytes were subjected to 180 min of metabolic inhibition or incubated in ischaemic pellets, in the presence and absence of 10 μm okadaic acid (OA) or calyculin A (CL-A). Contracture and viability was determined by light microscopic analysis of trypan blue-stained preparations and ATP levels by HPLC. Osmotic fragility was assessed by brief hypotonic swelling of cells in 170 or 85 mOsm media prior to determination of viability. Neither drug significantly affected the relatively rapid rates of contracture of myocytes during metabolic inhibition, and both afforded significant protection from development of trypan blue permeability and osmotic fragility. Both OA and CL-A significantly accelerated the rates of contracture and ATP depletion of myocytes during ischaemic incubations. Despite an enhanced rate of ATP depletion, which would be expected to accelerate development of injury, neither drug accelerated development of loss of viability or development of osmotic fragility as measured by 170 mOsm swelling. Mathematical compensation for different rates of ATP depletion confirmed that a protective effect of the drugs, during ischaemic incubation, was masked by their enhancement of the rate of injury, following swelling at 170 mOsm. When the effects of CL-A on ischaemic cells were examined at 85 mOsm, a more stringent test for osmotic fragility, protection was found without compensation for differing rates of ATP depletion. A dose/response curve for CL-A showed some effect at 100 nm and a nearly full effect during metabolic inhibition at 1 μm concentrations. It is concluded that protein phosphatase inhibitors reduce the rates of development of osmotic fragility of metabolically inhibited cells and reduces the rate of injury relative to the rate of ATP depletion of ischaemic cardiomyocytes. Phosphorylation mechanisms may be important to development of irreversible myocardial cell injury.

Immunofluorescence and quantitative flow cytometry was used to determine if alterations in cytoskeletal proteins (vinculin and tubulin) occur during metabolic inhibition and ischemic incubation of isolated adult rat cardiomyocytes. Effects of cell shape changes on fluorescence, were controlled for by the contractile inhibitor, butanedione monoxime (BDM) and gated analysis. Flow cytometry differentiated rod- and round-shaped myocytes on the basis of forward and side scattering. Severe contracture of metabolically inhibited (iodoacetic acid and amytal) myocytes caused an artefactual increase in fluorescence intensity and a redistribution of tubulin into microblebs on the cell surface, which tended to mask specific losses of fluorescence. Fluorescence microscopy showed that round cells stained intensely for vinculin, but not for tubulin and that vinculin redistributed into coarse patches between 60 and 90 min, times which corresponded to small rebounds of fluorescence. With gated analysis, to exclude severely contracted round and squared cells, and with BDM inhibition of contracture, both metabolically inhibited and ischemic pelleted myocytes showed an early decrease in specific immunofluorescence staining for tubulin and vinculin, which preceded loss of cell viability, as determined by trypan blue staining. In both ischemic and metabolically inhibited cells, decreases of vinculin fluorescence preceded or coincided with increasing osmotic fragility. It is concluded that early cytoskeletal alterations of vinculin in ischemic and anoxic injury correlate with the development of osmotic fragility and irreversible myocyte injury.

The relationship between myocardial cell contracture and injury during total metabolic inhibition (amylobarbital and iodacetic acid) and ischemia was examined, using 5-50 mm butanedione monoxime (BDM) as an inhibitor of contracture. BDM had no apparent effect on control myocytes during 180 min incubations, but inhibited contracture following anoxia or ischemia in a dose-dependent fashion, as directly quantitated by length/width ratios. Cellular ATP levels decreased at a similar rate in the absence or presence of BDM, following metabolic inhibition. BDM-mediated inhibition of contracture was associated with accelerated cell injury, as defined by: the uptake of an extracellular marker (trypan blue) by the cardiomyocytes, by direct analysis of myoglobin released into the supernatant and by ultrastructural demonstration of defects in sarcolemmal membrane integrity. Calcium was not required for BDM's enhancement of injury, in that cells incubated in calcium free-EGTA buffer showed a similar BDM-mediated acceleration of injury. In the presence or absence of calcium, enhancement of injury was more marked in cells osmotically stressed with a brief incubation in hypotonic buffer, than in cells resuspended in isotonic media. It is concluded that BDM enhances development of osmotic fragility of inhibited or ischemic cardiomyocytes and that contracture is not a necessary contributing factor to myocardial cell death.

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This thesis aims to investigate the impact of state fragility on capital inflows and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980-2015. In line with existing studies, it adopts an augmented neoclassical growth model where capital is divided into domestic and foreign capital inflows (FDI, ODA and Remittances). Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration, significant long-run relationship was confirmed between state fragility, capital flows and economic growth. The results reveal domestic capital to be very significant and contribute positively to economic growth. Similarly it was observed that remittances remain a very crucial form of capital flow to Nigeria and that the presence of state fragility makes it more significant. For ODA a positive contribution to economic growth was observed, however, the presence of state fragility renders it insignificant. In the case of FDI, the study found a negative relationship between FDI and economic growth albeit insignificant. However, the presence of state fragility makes it significant but still negative. A negative relationship was also observed between state fragility and economic growth. These findings, implies that while the issue of state fragility needs to be addressed and concerted efforts put into building state resilience, not just for the direct impact of state fragility on the economy, but also its impact on the economy through other channels such as capital flows.

When a structure undergoes seismic excitation, the intensities and spatial distributions of the reactive weights on the structure may not be the same as those assumed in original design. Such a difference is inevitable due to many facts with the random nature (e.g., redistribution of live load), resulting in accidental eccentricity and consequently torsional response in the system. The added torsion can cause excessive deformation and premature failure of the lateral force resisting system and its detrimental effect is typically accounted for in most building design codes with an arbitrarily specified accidental eccentricity value. While it tends to amplify drift response of buildings under earthquake excitations, it is unclear whether the code specified accidental eccentricity is quantitatively adequate or not in seismic fragility assessment of steel moment frames (including low-rise, mid-rise and high-rise frames) with random reactive weight distributions. This thesis applies surveyed dead and live load intensities and distributions to three representative steel moment resisting frame structures that have been widely investigated in a series of projects under the collaboration of the Structural Engineers Association of California (SEAOC), the Applied Technology Council (ATC), and Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering (CUREE), known as SAC. Based on an extensive parametric study and incremental nonlinear dynamic analyses, it is found that variable load intensity and eccentricity had negligible impacts on the inter-story drifts of the low- and high-rise steel moment frames. However, they affect to a higher degree the performance of the mid-rise steel moment frames. Moreover, it is found that under the maximum considered earthquake (MCE) event, the actual drifts in steel moment frames with random reactive weight distributions can be conservatively captured through consideration of the code specified accidental eccentricities.

This thesis is divided into two topics: the development of a procedure for wind serviceability design of steel buildings and the development of a simple linear response history analysis for building codes. In the United States the building codes are generally silent on the issue of serviceability. This has led to a wide variation in design practices related to service level wind loads. Chapter 2 of this thesis contains a literature review which discusses pertinent aspects of wind drift serviceability, including selecting the mean recurrence interval (MRI), mathematical modeling of the structure, and establishment of rational deformation limits. Chapter 3 contains a journal article submitted to Engineering Journal which describes the recommended procedure for damage based wind serviceability design of steel structures. The procedure uses a broad range of MRIs, bases damage measurement on shear strains, includes all sources of deformation in the model, and bases deformation limits on fragility curves. Chapter 4 of this thesis contains a literature review which examines issues related to performing linear response history analysis. Chapter 5 contains a conference paper submitted to the Tenth U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering which serves as a position paper promoting the inclusion of a linear response history analysis procedure in future editions of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions and ASCE 7. The procedure address the following issues: selection and scaling of ground motions, the use of spectral matched ground motions, design for dependent actions, and the scaling of responses with the response modification coefficient (R) and the deflection amplification factor (Cd). / Master of Science

This dissertation consists of three independent essays. The first essay, “Long Waves and Short Cycles in a Model of Endogenous Financial Fragility,” presents a stock flow consistent macroeconomic model in which financial fragility in firm and household sectors evolves endogenously through the interaction between real and financial sectors. Changes in firms’ and households’ financial practices produce long waves. The Hopf bifurcation theorem is applied to clarify the conditions for the existence of limit cycles, and simulations illustrate stable limit cycles. The long waves are characterized by periodic economic crises following long expansions. Short cycles, generated by the interaction between effective demand and labor market dynamics, fluctuate around the long waves. The second essay,“Macroeconomic Implications of Financialization,” examines macroeconomic effects of changes in firms’ financial behavior (retention policy, equity financing, debt financing), and household saving and portfolio decisions using models that pay explicit attention to financial stock-flow relations. Unlike the first essay, the second essay focuses on the effects of financial change on steady growth path. The results are insensitive to the precise specification of household saving behavior but depend critically on the labor market assumptions (labor-constrained vs dual) and the specification of the investment function (Harrodian vs stagnationist). The last essay, “Finance, Sectoral Structure and the Big Push,” studies the role of finance in the presence of investment complementarities using a big push model. Due to complementarities between different investment projects, simultaneous industrialization of many sectors (big push) may be needed for an underdeveloped economy to escape from an underdevelopment trap. Such simultaneous industrialization requires costly coordination by a third party, such as the government. Some recent papers show that private banks with significant market power may also solve the problem of coordination failure. We show that private coordination may not work since even large private banks may find it more profitable to finance firms in the traditional sector than in the modern sector.