The work presented in this dissertation can be grouped around three major themes. The first theme relates to risk, the second theme relates to asset pricing, whereas the third theme relates to serial correlation of asset returns. The three chapters of this dissertation investigate these themes Chapter Two analyses the behavior over time of market risk, aggregate idiosyncratic risk and correlations in portfolio of Taiwan listing stocks and studied pattern of aggregate correlation between the 3 most important Taiwan stock index and Taiwan value-weighted index. We find (1) Idiosyncratic risk is trended upwards; (2) The conditional stock returns correlation process is asymmetric. The implication of our finding is (1) It takes more stocks to achieve a given level of diversification; (2) Diversification strategies perform poorly in bear markets. Chapter Three investigates the role of the asset co-skewness and conditioning information in asset pricing. First, I estimate long-run predictive regressions of asset returns to test whether aggregate idiosyncratic risk is a price factor of industrial returns. Then I use data on Taiwan 19 industry portfolios to fit various assets pricing models. I find (1) the cross-sectional ctional correlation between 2 i £] (the gamma coefficient from the 3M-CAPM equation) and 3 i ϕ (the interaction coefficient from the CCAPM equation) is positive and fairly large. (2) The firm-level volatility is a good proxy for cay as conditioning information variable. (3) The gamma coefficient can pick up the extent of beta co-vary with the market wide excess-return over the business cycle. (4)among 19 industrial returns, the 2 industrial returns can be explained by 3M-CAPM; the 7 industrial returns can be explained by CCAPM; the 5 industrial returns can be explained by 3M-CAPM+CCAPM, Others can¡¦t be explained by either of three models. Chapter Four examines the impact of positive feedback trading behavior of the investors on the short-term dynamics of return for four Taiwan index futures contracts by utilizing the framework of the model developed by Sentana & Wadhwani(1992). Use of the Asymmetric Nonlinear Smooth Transition GARCH Model demonstrates that positive feedback trading of investors is the main determinant of short-term dynamics of return for Taiwan index futures contracts. Moreover, it shows that positive trading is more intense during market declines than it is during market advances due to extensive use of spot-loss trading for investors. Finally it is shown that the sophisticated professional investors intend to take positive feedback trades wave so that they lead to increase positive feedback trading in Taiwan index futures since the government opened the enterprises for managed futures.

[pt] Com o surgimento dos criptoativos em 2009, iniciado com o Bitcoin, uma nova dinâmica de investimento e de tecnologia emergiu no século XXI com um novo mercado que já chegou a mais de 800 bilhões de dólares em 2018 e conta com mais de 2.000 moedas. Apesar da elevada volatilidade, de vários escândalos de pirâmides, da ausência de regulamentação e da maior utilização como investimento do que em compras de bens e serviços, os criptoativos vêm ganhando seu espaço, em meio às controvérsias, devido a tecnologia disruptiva. Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os 50 maiores criptoativos do mercado durante o período de 2015 – 2018 por meio de três ensaios que abordam: (i) a análise e previsão de volatilidade utilizando o MSGARCH (KLAASSEN, 2002), com testes de acurácia (envolvendo funções perda EQM e QLIKE, bem como o MAE, MAPE e o indicador U de Theil); (ii) análise dos fenômenos comportamentais de efeito manada seguindo modificações nas metodologias CSSD (CHRISTIE E HUANG, 1995), CSAD (CHANG, CHENG E KHORANA, 2000) e HS (HWANG E SALMON, 2004), bem como o efeito contágio seguindo modificações nas metodologias do teste FR (FORBES E RIGOBON, 2002) e de testes de comomentos de ordem superior (FRY, MARTIN E TANG, 2010; FRY-MCKIBBIN E HSIAO, 2018); (iii) bem como a análise do fenômeno de feedback trading por meio do modelo seminal de Sentana e Wadhwani (1992). Como principais achados, foi identificado que: (i) há uma forte influência de dois estados de volatilidade; nos criptoativos com maior probabilidade de ocorrência do segundo regime existe uma maior tendência do aparecimento do segundo estado de volatilidade com a subida de preços, onde existe elação ao efeito manada, o modelo CSAD detectou um efeito pouco significativo, e o modelo CSSD detectou um efeito manada forte estatisticamente significativo no movimento de queda de mercado; o modelo HS capturou com sucesso o comportamento de manada e revelou períodos extremos de manada reversa; em relação ao efeito contágio, o teste FR conseguiu captar contágio do Bitcoin em outras moedas em praticamente todos os casos com exceção do Tether Dollar, BITCNY e ECC - que tipicamente possuem controle inflacionário e particularidades das stablecoins; nos modelos de comomentos, os testes indicaram contágio do Bitcoin em relação as moedas analisadas; (iii) em relação ao fenômeno de feedback trading, foi possível captar feedback trade negativo no TETHER e positivo nas moedas BTC, ETH, CSC e ECC, cuja adequação do modelo utilizado foi confirmada posteriormente pelo teste de viés de sinais (ENGLE E NG, 1993), com exceção do TETHER - que contrariou Sentana e Wadhwani (1992) e Shi, Chiang e Liang (2012) ao apontarem que modelos menos parcimoniosos teriam pouca influência na verificação de feedback trading. / [en] With the arise of cryptocurrencies in 2009, started with the Bitcoin, a new dynamic of investment and technology emerged in the 21st century with a new market that has already exceed US 800 billion in 2018 and has more than 2,000 coins. Despite the high volatility, various Ponzi schemes, lack of regulation and the main use as investment than in purchases goods and services, cryptocurrencies have been gaining ground, amid controversy, due to the disruptive technology. The objective of this work is to analyze the 50 largest cryptocurrencies in the market during the period of 2015-2018 by means of three essays that seek to investigate: (i) the volatility analysis and prediction using MSGARCH (KLAASSEN, 2002), with accuracy tests (involving MSE and QLIKE loss functions, as well as MAE, MAPE, and Theil s U indicator); (ii) the analysis of the behavioral phenomena of herd effect following modifications in CSSD (CHRISTIE e HUANG, 1995), CSAD (CHANG, CHENG e KHORANA, 2000) and HS (HWANG e SALMON, 2004) methodologies, as well as the contagion effect following modifications in the methodologies of FR test (FORBES e RIGOBON, 2002) and higher order comoments tests (FRY, MARTIN e TANG, 2010; FRY-MCKIBBIN e HSIAO, 2018); (iii) the analysis of the feedback trading phenomenon through the seminal model of Sentana and Wadhwani (1992). As main findings, it was identified that: (i) there is a strong influence of two volatility states; in the cryptoassets with more probability of occurrence under the second regime, there is a greater tendency of occurrence of the second state of volatility when prices go up, where there is more the volatility - the exception that has been noted only in BTC and ETH, where the first state of volatility is strong when prices go up, with more volatility; there is more accuracy in the forecasting with two volatility states for long term prediction than in short term prediction; (ii) with respect to the herd effect, the CSAD model detected a small herd effect, with little statistical significance, and the CSSD model detected a strong herd effect statistically significant in the down movement of market; the HS model successfully captured herd behavior and revealed extreme periods of reversal in the herd effect; in relation to the contagion effect, the FR test was able to capture Bitcoin s contagion in other currencies in practically all cases except Tether Dollar, BITCNY and ECC - which typically have inflationary control and particularities of stablecoins; in the comoments models, the tests indicated contagion of Bitcoin in relation to the currencies analyzed; (iii) in relation to the feedback trading phenomenon, it was possible to capture negative feedback trading in TETHER and positive in BTC, ETH, CSC and ECC, whose adequacy of the model used was confirmed later by the signal bias test (ENGLE e NG, 1993), with the exception of TETHER - which contradicts Santana and Wadhwani (1992) and Shi, Chiang and Liang (2012) that less parsimonious models would have little influence on feedback trading.

In this paper I examine the validity of technical analysis for the Swedish stock index OMXS30 between 2001-12-28 and 2011-12-30.  Results indicate that OMXS30 followed a non-random walk and that technical trading rules had predictive power over future price movements. Results also suggest that technical trading rules could be used to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy.

This dissertation presents three essays. The first essay finds that the household risky ratio, the ratio of high risk assets over low risk assets directly owned by households, is a strong negative predictor of the equity premium on the US stock market. The predictability is robust to definition of the asset classes, first versus second half of sample, and the finite-sample bias of Stambaugh (1999). The predictability is stronger than, and not subsumed by popular predictors like price-earnings ratios, yield spread, equity share of issues, or consumption-wealth ratios. The main predictive power is decomposed into three similar parts: 1) the household tilt of risky assets, which is novel and generally orthogonal to known predictors; 2) a valuation ratio component; and 3) an issuance component of high risk versus low risk assets. / Economics

What do investors' searches for public information reveal about their subsequent trading strategies? Does their search for information support the hypothesis of market efficiency or does it lend support to the idea that investors have behavioral biases. Using Google Trends, we find that the volume of Google searches about feeder cattle is associated with re-enforcement of momentum trading in a manner consistent with a positive feedback mechanism. Further, we find evidence that search volume for "cattle" is associated with higher volatility and thus amplifies the positive feedback trading mechanism, while the search volume for "corn", a major input to cattle production, is associated with a reduction in volatility.

What do investors' searches for public information reveal about their subsequent trading strategies? Does their search for information support the hypothesis of market efficiency or does it lend support to the idea that investors have behavioral biases. Using Google Trends, we find that the volume of Google searches about feeder cattle is associated with re-enforcement of momentum trading in a manner consistent with a positive feedback mechanism. Further, we find evidence that search volume for "cattle" is associated with higher volatility and thus amplifies the positive feedback trading mechanism, while the search volume for "corn", a major input to cattle production, is associated with a reduction in volatility.

Abstract Based on the sequential auction model of Kyle (1985) and embedded the formulation of positive feedback traders in De Long et al. (1990), our model formulates a recursive market game of insiders, noise traders, and market makers. In particular, the submitted demands of positive feedback inertial traders are influenced by previous own trading quantities. I prove the existence and uniqueness of a recursive linear equilibrium with positive feedback inertial trades. Further, the equilibrium calibrates that the strategies of insider and market makers are also influenced by positive feedback trades. Finally, we conduct a simulation analysis to get a price-volume pattern with some empirical interesting implications. Finally, this thesis takes trading strategies to trade the individual stock in TSEC. Although the market mechanism of TSEC has no market makers, it is still expected that these trading strategies are useful for traders which implies the information is filtrated by these trading strategies.

This thesis consists of four essays on topics relating to the fields of international portfolio choice, trading behavior, and asset pricing. "Direct Foreign Ownership, Institutional Investors, and Firm Characteristics" analyzes portfolios of Swedish stocks held by foreign investors. The analysis reveals that foreigners tilt their portfolios to firms with certain attributes. It is also shown that the seemingly specific preferences of foreign investors are driven by the fact that they are large institutional investors, and are not linked to their national origin. "Foreigners' Trades in Risky Assets: An assessment of  Investment Behavior and Performance" analyzes foreigners' trading activities. It is shown that foreigners trade more than domestic investors. Further, they trade as non-informed trend followers in that they buy stocks that have recently done well. Nonetheless, after the liberalization of Sweden's stock market, foreigners' purchases have led to a permanent price increase and to a reduction in the cost of equity capital. "Exchange Rate Exposure, Risk Premia, and Firm Characteristics" shows that about fifty percent of Swedish listed firms are affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The sign and magnitude of exchange rate exposure are characterized across industries as well as firm attributes. The empirical analysis suggests that exposure can be eliminated through diversification, and that exchange rate risk is not priced. "Conditioning Information in Tactical Asset Allocation" examines whether investors can exploit the predictability in time-varying expected returns on Swedish stocks and bonds. It is shown that dynamic allocation strategies, based on conditioning information, significantly outperform several benchmark portfolios. This superior performance is not only statistically significant, it is economically large. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

This thesis consists of three essays in behavioral finance: One for the Gain, Three for the Loss is a study of loss aversion in portfolio choice. Using historical returns, I find that the pain of a loss must be greater than three times the pleasure of a gain for investors to hold finitely leveraged portfolios. For lower rates of loss aversion, in particular those proposed in the earlier experimental literature, portfolio allocation to risky assets is infinite. All Guts, No Glory: Trading and Diversification among Online Investors explores the cross-sectional portfolio performance of 16,831 investors at an online discount brokerage firm. Investors hold undiversified portfolios, show a strong preference for risk, and trade aggressively. I show that investors with high portfolio turnover underperform their benchmarks. The degree of diversification, a proxy for investor skill, has a separate and distinct positive effect on performance. Equity Mutual Fund Flows and Stock Returns in Sweden uses time series methods to characterize the relation between unexpected flows to equity mutual funds and returns on the Swedish stock market. I find that concurrent unexpected flows and returns are strongly positively correlated. Unexpected flows have a distinct effect on returns even when other risk factors are considered. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2004

Η παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία ερευνά την σχέση μεταξύ των συναλλαγών των μετοχικών αμοιβαίων κεφαλαίων και των χρηματιστηριακών αποδόσεων για την περίπτωση του Ελληνικού Χρηματιστηρίου για την χρονική περίοδο 1994-2002. Με την χρησιμοποίηση ποικίλων οικονομετρικών μεθόδων γίνεται έλεγχος για την ύπαρξη σχέσης συνολοκλήρωσης καθώς και κάποιας βραχυχρόνιας σχέσης μεταξύ αυτών των δύο παραγόντων, ενώ γίνεται προσπάθεια εντοπισμού κάποιας σχέσης αιτιότητας μεταξύ αυτών με βάση τον έλεγχο αιτιότητας του Granger. / This diplomatic thesis investigates the relationship between the trading of mutual funds and stock returns in the case of the Greek Stock Exchange Market, for the period 1994 - 2002. A variety of econometric methods was used to check the existence of a cointegration relationship and a kind of a short-run relationship between these two factors. Finally an attempt was made to identify causal relationships between them using the Granger causality test.