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La question de la transmission internationale des cycles a reçu une attention considérable en raison de l’intensification de la globalisation économique et financière. La problématique générale de cette thèse s’inscrit dans le prolongement de la littérature consacrée à cette question. Plus précisément, elle focalise son attention sur l’analyse de la transmission du cycle des Etats-Unis sur les pays émergents. Elle comporte trois chapitres. Le premier, en se basant sur une nouvelle approche économétrique en termes de modèle Global VAR, s’attache à étudier l’effet des chocs provenant des Etats-Unis sur les pays émergents. Il confirme l’idée que les Etats-Unis jouent un rôle important dans la transmission des cycles économiques étant donné leur poids dans l’économie mondiale. Le second chapitre propose d’étudier la transmission financière des Etats-Unis en s’intéressant à la crise des subprimes sur ces pays. L’estimation du modèle switch à probabilité variée développée indique que la persistance des stress financiers, le durcissement des conditions du crédit et l’augmentation du risque de non-solvabilité bancaire ont été les causes fondamentales de la transmission financière. La volatilité de l’indice boursier américain a été le facteur clé de la contamination avec tous les pays étudiés. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à étudier si les pays émergents sont en mesure d’adopter des politiques budgétaires contracycliques pouvant atténuer les chocs provenant de l’extérieur. En utilisant le modèle à seuil avec transition lisse en panel (le modèle PSTR), ce chapitre confirme que la politique budgétaire dans les pays émergents est procyclique en période de ralentissement économique et aussi lorsque la dette publique dépasse le seuil critique. De ce fait, une solide position budgétaire est fondamentale pour assurer la stabilité macroéconomique. / The issue of international transmission cycles has considerably received attention due to the increasing economic and financial globalization. Our thesis is in line with the literature dedicated to this question. More specifically, we focusour attention on the analysis of the transmission cycle of the United States to emerging countries. It consists of three chapters. The first one, based on a new econometric approach in terms of Global VAR model, aims to study the effect of shocks from the U.S. to emerging countries. The main resultconfirms the idea that the United States plays an important role in the transmission of economic cycles given their weight in the world economy. The second chapter proposes to study the financial transmission of the United States by focusing on the subprime crisis on these countries. The estimation of time varyingtransitionprobability (TVTP) Markov switchingmodel indicates that the persistence of financial stress, the tightening of the conditions of the credit and the increase of the risk of Banking solvency constitute the major determinants of the financial transmission. The US stock market volatility is the key factor transmission channel for all the studied countries. The third chapter is devoted to investigate whether emerging countries are able to adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to mitigate the impact from outside. Using the threshold model with smooth transition panel ( the PSTR model ), this chapter confirms that fiscal policy in emerging countries is procyclicalin the slowdown periodand also when public debt exceeds the critical threshold. Therefore, a strong fiscal position is fundamental to ensure macroeconomic stability.

Heat stress (HS) induced changes in energy metabolism, proteolysis, lipogenesis, and oxidative balance have meat quality ramifications for livestock. However, several knowledge gaps exist in understanding heat stressed finishing pig physiology and pork quality characteristics and how dietary zinc may ameliorate undesirable outcomes. Research was completed to determine zinc supplementation effects on carcass composition, meat quality, and oxidative stability of fresh and processed pork from pigs subjected to a chronic, cyclic heat stress using a 2×2×2 factorial arrangement of treatments with main effects of environment (HS vs. thermoneutral; TN), added zinc level (50 vs. 130 mg kg^-1 available zinc), and zinc source (inorganic vs. organic). Commercial crossbred mixed-sex pigs (initially 72.0 kg) were group-housed under either TN (18.9-16.7°C) or cycling HS conditions with chronic diurnal heat (30-29°C/26-27°C for 12h:12h) on days 24-71 with acute heat waves (32-33°C/29-30°C for 12h:12h) on days 21-24, 42-45, and 63-65. One representative pig (<i>n</i>=80) per pen was slaughtered on day 64. The HS pigs were lighter bodyweight (<i>P</i>=0.039), yielded lighter carcasses (<i>P</i>=0.011), less last rib backfat (<i>P</i>=0.032), tended to have smaller loin eye area (<i>P</i>=0.062) but similar percent lean in belly center slices (<i>P</i>>0.10). Compared to TN, HS carcasses had higher 24-h pH (<i>P</i>=0.001) and decreased drip loss (<i>P</i>=0.034). Shifts in individual fatty acid profile of sausage product derived from HS carcasses were observed but were of insufficient magnitude to affect iodine value. Initially, sausage from HS carcasses tended (day 0, <i>P</i>=0.071) to have less thiobarbituric acid reactive substances than TN but over a 10-day simulated retail display, no treatment induced lipid oxidation differences (<i>P</i>>0.05) were observed in either sausage or displayed loin chops. Consistent treatment differences in CIE L*a*b* of products throughout the 10-day display were not observed. The relationships between physiological changes in pigs receiving supplemental zinc and their body and ambient temperatures were also investigated. A representative gilt (<i>n</i>=96) was selected for thermal monitoring from each pen of the 2×2×2 treatments plus 4 additional treatments representing 2 intermediate levels of Zn in both environments. Core body temperatures (T_core) during the day 42-45 acute heat wave were continuously recorded via indwelling vaginal thermometers and infrared thermal imaging was used to measure skin temperatures at 12-hour intervals. From a 64-gilt subset of the 2×2×2 treatments, jejunum and ileum samples were collected on day 64 for analysis of villus height, crypt depth, and jejunal gene expression of heat shock proteins (27, 70, 90), occludin, and mucin (MUC2). The HS model induced thermoregulatory changes and increases in T_core (<i>P</i><0.05). Day 42-45 ambient temperature was negatively correlated with expression of HSP-27 (r=-0.42, <i>P</i>=0.047), HSP-90 (r=-0.49, <i>P</i>=0.014), and occludin (r=-0.69, <i>P</i><0.001) in HS pigs. For the organic Zn supplemented pigs, ambient temperature was positively correlated with expression of HSP-27 (r=0.42, <i>P</i>=0.034) and MUC2 (r=0.45, <i>P</i>=0.017) and negatively correlated with villus height in jejunum (r=-0.42, <i>P</i>=0.027) and ileum (r=-0.38, <i>P</i>=0.048). Thermal Circulation Index (measure of heat dissipation) of HS pigs was negatively correlated with their ileum villus height (r=-0.51, <i>P</i>=0.015) and positively correlated with HSP-70 expression (r=0.46, <i>P</i>=0.041). The T_core lacked correlation with most variables. This research demonstrates cyclic HS affects carcass composition and quality but does not appear to reduce display shelf-life of pork as indicated by lack of differences in lipid oxidation and color stability. In this HS model, zinc level or source imparted negligible benefits and thermal correlations with gut integrity characteristics existed for organic zinc supplemented and HS pigs. The degree of heat dissipation by heat stressed pigs appeared to be associated with classic HS damage and intestinal responses which may be useful indicators of HS in the grow-finish pig. Another agricultural challenge is maintaining higher education programming which establishes a successful career trajectory for agricultural students amid generational shifts in attitudes and background experiences. Undergraduates studying Animal Science and/or Agricultural Economics were surveyed to understand their perception of how collegiate curricular, co-curricular, and extracurricular experiences (coursework, club participation, relevant work experience, international experience, advising/mentoring, college life, and professional networking) contribute to their anticipated career success. A best-worst scaling experiment was used to force respondents (<i>n</i>=487) to make unbiased tradeoffs between the collegiate experience attributes. Responses were then related back to additional demographical and experience/perception characteristics of respondents. Students indicated relevant work experience was overwhelmingly the most critical of the 7 factors (57% preference share), followed by professional networking (19%), and coursework (14%). Students solely in a pre-veterinary Animal Science curriculum represented a distinct category of students regarding their beliefs and experiences. Further research is needed to investigate possible disconnects between student perceptions and reality in higher education and agricultural careers.

This dissertation is composed of four essays that empirically investigate three topics in financial economics; financial stress and its leading indicators, the relationship between bank competition and financial stability, and the link between management board composition and bank risk. In the first essay we examine which variables have predictive power for financial stress in 25 OECD countries, using a recently constructed financial stress index. We find that panel models can hardly explain FSI dynamics. Although better results are achieved in country models, our findings suggest that financial stress is hard to predict out-of- sample despite the reasonably good in-sample performance of the models. The second essay develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events over two horizons of different length on a panel of 14 countries. We build a financial stress index to identify the starting dates of systemic financial crises and select crisis-leading indicators in a two-step approach; we find relevant prediction horizons for each indicator and employ Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful predictors. We find superior performance of the long-horizon model for the Czech Republic. The theoretical literature gives conflicting predictions on how bank...

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