The study was conducted in the Greater Kruger National Park Complex (GKNP), which consists of the Kruger National Park (KNP) and adjacent private game reserves and focuses primarily on the following objectives: • To monitor and evaluate the standard of the existing disease surveillance programmes for the following diseases, Foot and Mouth, Anthrax, Tuberculosis, Brucellosis and Rabies, within the Kruger National Park and adjacent private game reserves by evaluating the level of competency and knowledge in field rangers, field guides and trails rangers with regard to these specific diseases. It can be stated that important differences exist between disease surveillance techniques used for domestic animals and those used for wildlife (Bengis, R.G., Kock, R.A., & Fischer, J., 2002). According to Morner, T., Obendorf, D.L., Artios, M., & Woodford, M.H., 2002, it is more difficult to monitor diseases in wildlife than in domestic animals because wild animals are not constrained by boundaries and can roam over large. distances. For significant diseases in wildlife, an active surveillance programme may be the preferred approach with the aim to collect a certain number of samples from a target population (live or dead animals) to determine the point prevalence of certain pathogens. Active veterinary participation is essential in protected area management, with emphasis on training of technicians, rangers and field biologists with regard to specific diseases and their clinical signs, surveillance and sampling techniques, data collection, and reporting. For the purpose of this study, data collection was conducted by means of a questionnaire drawn up according to the related critical points as described in the Dufour grid (Dufour, 1998). The results of this study clearly showed a need to address certain important aspects regarding a wildlife disease programme within the GKNP. A more efficient wildlife disease surveillance programme, which included more specific and “hands-on” trained staff, would definitely ensure a better early warning system which would detect new or emerging disease outbreaks. / M. Tech. (Nature Conservation))

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a highly infectious virus affecting cloven-hoofed animals. The most prominent of its clinical signs is the development of vesicular lesions on the feet and in or around the mouth, which are a consequence of extensive FMDV-induced epithelial cell death. Currently, there is no certain biological knowledge on why extensive epithelial cell death occurs in some FMDV-infected tissues, but not in others. Using the epithelial tissues of tongue and dorsal soft palate as examples of a tissue where lesions occur and one that does not visibly exhibit FMDV-induced cell death, this work aims to identify the potential drivers of epithelial cell death and survival. A partial differential equation (PDE) model informed by experimental data on epithelial structure, is used to test epithelium thickness and cell layer structure as potential determinants. A second PDE model investigates FMDV-interferon (IFN) dynamics and their impact on the levels of cell death and survival, while an experimental study is undertaken to provide data for model validation. The work carried out casts light on the important role of a variety of factors including FMDV replication, IFN production and release, and IFN antiviral action.

L’augmentation depuis une trentaine d’années des maladies infectieuses dites émergentes ou ré-émergentes chez l’homme, causées à plus de 70% par des pathogènes issus d’espèces hôtes animales (i.e. Ebola, SIDA), stimule l’étude de systèmes éco-épidémiologiques à l’interface entres populations humaines et animales (i.e. sauvages et/ou domestiques).Le contact entre hôtes est un phénomène important dans l’étude de ces systèmes car il permet la transmission des pathogènes entre individus et la diffusion de maladie au sein et entre populations. Nous avons choisi la maladie de la fièvre aphteuse comme modèle d’étude de la transmission de pathogènes des populations sauvages vers les populations domestiques. Le buffle africain (Syncerus caffer) étant le réservoir présumé de cette maladie fortement contagieuse, nous nous sommes interrogés sur les conditions de transfert au bétail (Bos taurus et Bos indicus) du virus aphteux aux frontières de trois parcs nationaux africains qui constituent des interfaces entre espaces anthropiques et protégés perméables aux mouvements d’animaux. Dans le cadre de ce doctorat 4 protocoles ont été mis en place entre 2010 et 2011 au Zimbabwe. Premièrement, des colliers GPS (Global Positionning System) ont été déployés sur des bovins sauvages/domestiques pour décrire leurs déplacements dans le paysage et quantifier les contacts interspécifiques. Des colliers furent également posés sur l’une des espèces prédatrices de ces ongulés: le lion (Panthera leo). L’intégration de la guilde des prédateurs nous a permis d’estimer les modifications de l’utilisation de l’espace par les herbivores en réponse à la présence de carnivores et les conséquences en termes de contacts et de transmission interspécifique de pathogènes. Deuxièmement, un suivi longitudinal sérologique sur le bétail a complété le protocole télémétrique avec des prélèvements répétés sur des individus marqués selon le cycle saisonnier. Troisièmement, les contacts au sein des populations de bovins domestiques ont été caractérisés par des enquêtes auprès des éleveurs. Quatrièmement, le rôle potentiel de la diversité des hôtes sur le risque infectieux d’un écosystème a été exploré par l’estimation de densité de macro-parasites dans le paysage selon une variation de la gamme d’hôtes potentiels (i.e. (i) sauvages, (ii) sauvages et domestiques et (iii) uniquement domestiques).Nos résultats montrent que (1) les taux d’interaction interspécifiques, estimés par télémétrie, varient entre sites et présentent une saisonnalité prononcée (i.e. pic saison sèche chaude). (2) La distribution des ressources conditionne la périodicité et la distribution de ces contacts dans les différents compartiments du paysage. (3) La fréquence des incursions du bétail dans un espace protégé ainsi que les taux de contacts avec les buffles influencent positivement la probabilité d’acquisition d’anticorps anti-aphteux chez le bétail. La probabilité de perte d’anticorps est également fonction du niveau d’interaction avec les buffles mais selon une relation négative. (4) La densité du réseau d’interaction intra-spécifique domestique influence positivement l’incidence sérologique de la fièvre aphteuse. (5) La présence de prédateurs supérieurs dans le paysage permettrait de limiter les incursions du bétail dans les espaces protégés et diminuerait la probabilité d’infection par les populations d’hôtes sauvages. (6) Enfin les densités de macro-parasites dans la végétation sont supérieures dans des espaces communaux sans interaction avec les populations sauvages et où la richesse spécifique des hôtes est plus faible. Les résultats de cette étude sur la transmission interspécifique de pathogènes entre populations sauvages et domestiques dans les écosystèmes tropicaux ouvrent des champs de réflexion encore largement inexplorés, notamment sur l’évolution de la virulence et des modes de transmission des pathogènes ayant comme hôtes des populations sympatriques sauvages et domestiques. / Emerging or re-emerging diseases in human populations have increased over the last thirty years. Since 70% of such diseases are caused by pathogens originating from animal hosts (i.e. Ebola, AIDS, and avian influenza), this increase has prompted the study of eco-epidemiological systems that occur at the interface between human and animal populations (i.e. wild and/or domestic). Contacts between hosts are particularly important factors in these systems since they result in pathogen transmission among individuals and, therefore, disease diffusion within and among populations. We used foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) as a model to study pathogen transmission from wild to domestic populations. As the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the presumed reservoir of this highly contagious disease, we examined the conditions in which the virus was transmitted to cattle sensitive to the disease (Bos taurus and Bos indicus) at the borders of African national parks; these areas are interfaces between anthropogenic and protected areas in which animals can move freely.In the context, 4 protocols were implemented between 2010 and 2011 in Zimbabwe. First, GPS (Global Positioning System) collars were placed on cattle and buffalo in order to describe and analyze their movements across the landscape as well as to quantify interspecific contacts. In one of the study sites, collars were attached to one of the predators of these ungulates: the lion (Panthera leo). By integrating the predator guild into our telemetry protocols, we could examine the potential changes in spatial use by cattle and buffalo in response to predator presence and their consequences for contact dynamics and interspecific pathogen transmission. Second, a longitudinal serological survey was conducted in which tagged individuals were sampled repeatedly over the course of different seasons. Third, to characterize contacts within the domestic host population, interviews were conducted with cattle owners regarding their husbandry practices across seasons. Fourth, to describe the potential role of host diversity in ecosystem infection risks, macroparasite density (i.e. ticks) was estimated for landscape compartments that contrasted in terms of potential hosts present (i.e. (i) wild, (ii) domestic and wild, and (iii) domestic only).Our study primarily shows the following results. (1) Interspecific interaction rates, as estimated by telemetry, vary between sites and have a pronounced seasonality (peak occurs during the hot dry season). (2) Resource distribution (i.e. water and grazing areas) seems to condition the frequency and distribution of these contacts in the different landscape compartments. (3) Cattle incursion frequencies into protected areas and the frequency and intensity of contact with buffalo significantly positively affect the probability of foot-and-mouth antibody acquisition in cattle. The probability of antibody loss in cattle is also a function of diminished rates of interaction with buffalo. (4) Intraspecific interaction densities positively influence FMD serological incidence in cattle. (5) Top predator presence in the landscape could limit cattle incursion into protected areas and reduce the likelihood of their being infected by wild host populations. (6) Finally, the estimated densities of macroparasites in the vegetation were higher in communal spaces where there was no interaction with wild hosts and where host species richness was weak.The results of this study on the interspecific transmission of pathogens between wild and domestic populations in tropical ecosystems encourage the exploration of research topics that are still largely unexplored, including the evolution of virulence transmission modes of pathogens hosted by sympatric wild and domestic populations.

A Dengue e a Febre Aftosa são infecções virais que ocorrem tanto no Brasil como no mundo, apresentando enorme impacto socioeconômico. As proteases virais são reconhecidas como alvos de grande interesse para o planejamento de antivirais, devido ao seu papel fundamental no ciclo de vida de muitos vírus, incluindo-se os flavivirus (vírus da Dengue DENV) e os picornavirus (vírus da Febre Aftosa FA). Com o objetivo de buscar e identificar novos inibidores de proteases virais (da NS2B/NS3pro do DENV ou da Lbpro do vírus da FA) propusemos modelos de busca virtual, incluindo diferentes filtros de seleção (ex. farmacofórico, drug-like, similaridade e ancoramento) aplicados, sequencialmente, a bancos de dados de compostos comerciais (280x103 a 23x106 compostos). A seleção final dos compostos foi sempre feita por inspeção visual. Para NS2B/NS3pro do DENV, construíram-se quatro modelos de busca virtual (Modelo I-DENV a Modelo IV-DENV). O primeiro foi construído, baseando-se na estrutura cristalográfica ligada a um inibidor peptidomimético, e aplicado ao banco ZINC. Ao final, dez compostos foram comprados e submetidos a testes de inibição enzimática, frente à NS2B/NS3pro, para validação experimental deste modelo. Dois compostos mostraram alguma atividade inibitória (IC50 150 - 300 µM). Visando-se melhorar estes resultados, a flexibilidade da NS2B/NS3pro foi incluída, usando simulações de dinâmica molecular (DM), e um novo banco de dados construído (ZINC-Curated). Através de uma análise extensiva do banco ZINC-Curated, usando ferramentas estatísticas/quimiométricas, confirmou-se que este foi enriquecido com compostos com características de fármacos. Outros três modelos de busca virtual foram construídos incluindo-se diferentes informações obtidas nas simulações de DM. O modelo II-DENV foi feito usando ancoramento e aplicado ao banco ZINC-Curated, selecionando dezesseis compostos. Nenhum deles apresentou atividade inibitória significativa frente à NS2B/NS3pro do DENV. Os modelos III-DENV e IV-DENV utilizaram modelos farmacofóricos, que tiveram seus desempenhos previamente avaliados usando dados de literatura, e foram aplicados aos bancos NCI e ZINC-Curated, respectivamente. O modelo III-DENV selecionou quinze compostos, tendo quatro deles apresentado atividade inibitória (IC50 30 - 100 µM). O modelo IV-DENV selecionou dezoito compostos, sendo quatro ativos frente a esta protease (IC50 4 - 90 µM), representando uma taxa de acerto de ~22 %. Ainda, uma série de treze análogos estruturais do composto mais ativo foi construída, sendo três deles também ativos. Portanto, as modificações incluídas na busca virtual permitiram melhorar, significativamente, os resultados obtidos. Para Lbpro do vírus da FA, construíram-se dois modelos de busca virtual (Modelos I-FA e II-FA). O primeiro foi construído usando sua estrutura cristalográfica, sem ligantes, e uma série in house de potenciais inibidores covalentes. Seis compostos foram selecionados e testados frente à Lbpro, tendo dois deles baixa atividade inibitória (IC50 300 - 600 µM). A partir da disponibilidade da estrutura da Lbpro com ligante, o modelo IIFA foi construído e aplicado ao banco ZINC-Curated, selecionando quinze compostos. Estes foram adquiridos e testados frente à Lbpro, não apresentando atividade inibitória significativa. Assim, as modificações incluídas ainda não foram suficientes para selecionar inibidores mais potentes. No entanto, estes modelos/resultados contribuíram para o entendimento da(s) interação(ões) no sítio ativo da Lbpro. / Dengue and Food-and-mouth disease are viral infections that occur in Brazil and in the world, causing a huge socioeconomic impact. Viral proteases are recognized as targets for antiviral design, because they are crucial for the life cycle of many viruses, such as flavivirus (Dengue virus DENV) and picornavirus (Food-and-mouth disease virus FMDV). In order to discovery novel inhibitors of viral proteases (of NS2B/NS3pro of DENV or of Lbpro of FMDV) virtual screening models were proposed comprising a sequence of different filters (e.g. pharmacophore, drug-like, similarity and docking) applied to databases of commercial compounds (280x103 to 23x106 compounds). In all models, the final selection of compounds was always done by visual inspection. For DENV NS2B/NS3pro, four virtual screening models were proposed (Model I-DENV to Model IV-DENV). Model I-DENV was built, based on the crystal structure bound to a peptidemimetic inhibitor, and applied to ZINC database. Finally, ten compounds were purchased and submitted to enzymatic assays against this protease to the experimental validation of this model. Two compounds showed some inhibitory activity (IC50 150 - 300 µM). In order to improve these results, NS2B/NS3pro flexibility was included, using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a novel database was built (ZINC-Curated). Throughout an exhaustively analysis of ZINC-Curated, using statistical/chemometrics tools, we confirmed that this new database was enriched with drug like compounds. Other three virtual screening models were built including different information from MD simulations. Model II-DENV was built using docking and applied to the ZINC-Curated database, selecting sixteen compounds. None of them showed a significant inhibitory activity against DENV NS2B/NS3pro. Models III-DENV and IV-DENV were built using pharmacophore models, which have their performance previously evaluated using literature data, and applied to NCI and ZINC-Curated databases, respectively. Model III-DENV selected fifteen compounds, showing four of them inhibitory activity (IC50 30 - 100 µM). Model IV-DENV selected eighteen compounds. Four of them were active against this protease (IC50 4 - 90 µM), representing a hit rate of ~22 %. Moreover, a set of thirteen structural analogues of the most active compound were built, being three of them also active. Thus, the modifications done in the virtual screening procedure really improved our results. For FMDV Lbpro, two virtual screening models were built (Models I-FMDV and II-FMDV). The first one was based on the crystal structure, without ligands, and used a set of in house potential covalent inhibitors. Six of the in house compounds were selected and tested against this protease. Two of them showed a weak inhibitory activity (IC50 300 - 600 µM). Later on, the Lbpro bound with ligands was available being therefore used to build another model. Model II FMDV was applied to the ZINC-Curated database, selecting fifteen compounds that were purchased and also tested against the target protease. But none of them showed a significant inhibition. Thus, the incorporated changes were not enough to retrieve active compounds. However, these models/results contributed to better understand Lbpro binding site interactions

O presente trabalho busca analisar a dinâmica econômica dos fluxos da pecuária bovina no Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) e identificar sua distribuição geográfica dentro do estado. Dado que as barreiras sanitárias e técnicas constituem, atualmente, alguns dos principais obstáculos ao comércio internacional, o conhecimento sobre as características dessa dinâmica e a identificação dos municípios centrais na pecuária do estado permitem analisar o processo de difusão da febre aftosa no MS em um eventual de surto da doença. Dessa forma, foram identificadas as áreas de maior risco de ocorrência e de potenciais maiores impactos econômicos. A metodologia aplicada consiste na análise de redes socioeconômicas, construídas a partir das Guias de Trânsito Animal registradas no estado em 2014 e 2015. Verificou-se que a movimentação dentro do MS se traduz em redes fortemente conectadas, o que poderia resultar em uma alta velocidade de difusão da doença no território. Os municípios de Campo Grande, Corumbá e Ribas do Rio Pardo mostraram-se os mais centrais nesse processo, pois recebem e enviam muitos animais para outros municípios, além de atuarem como intermediadores de fluxos animais dentro das redes de movimentação. Por conta do fornecimento de animais para outros estados, a difusão pode ocorrer a nível nacional, elevando os impactos econômicos da doença. Nesse sentido, foram estimadas as perdas de exportação e custos de controle do último surto de febre aftosa ocorrido no MS, em 2005/2006. As exportações do estado recuaram 81% em 2006, com relação ao ano anterior. A partir do modelo teórico de simulação e das estimativas de custos do último surto, conclui-se que, diante de uma potencial difusão de febre aftosa, com origem no MS, os impactos diretos na pecuária bovina seriam significativos, o que torna indispensável a promoção de estudos sobre impactos e riscos da entrada e difusão da doença no país, de modo a otimizar a alocação de recursos em termos de sua prevenção e, em caso de crise, no Plano de Emergência. / This work seeks to analyze the economic dynamics of cattle flows in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) state and to identify their geographic distribution within the state. Given that sanitary and technical barriers are currently some of the main obstacles to international trade, knowledge about the characteristics of this dynamics and the identification of central municipalities in terms of livestock flows allow analyzing the diffusion process of the foot-and-mouth disease in MS in a possible outbreak. In this way, the municipalities with the greatest risk of occurrence and potential economic impacts were identified. The applied methodology consists on socioeconomic network analysis, constructed from the Animal Transit Guides registered in MS in 2014 and 2015. The cattle movement within MS produces heavily connected networks, which could result in a high-speed dissemination of the disease in the territory. The municipalities of Campo Grande, Corumbá and Ribas do Rio Pardo were the most central in this process, since they receive and send many animals to other municipalities, besides acting as intermediaries of animal flows within the movement networks. Due to the supply of animals to other states, the diffusion can occur at a national level, raising the economic impacts of an outbreak. In this sense, the export losses and the costs of emergence to control last FMD outubreak in MS, in 2005/2006, were estimated. The State exports declined 81% in 2006, compared to the previous year. Considering the theoretical model of simulation and the costs and losses estimated for the last outbreak, we conclude that a potential diffusion of the FMD, originating in MS, might generate significant direct impacts on livestock. This conclusion highlights how essential it is to promote studies about the impacts and risks of the FMD entry and diffusion in Brazil, in order to optimize the allocation of resources to prevention strategies and, in case of an outbreak, to implement the Emergency Plan.

O serviço veterinário oficial é responsável por proteger a saúde pública e animal. Uma ferramenta que auxilia na busca desse objetivo é a análise de risco, que começou a ser utilizada na década de 1990 pelos serviços veterinários oficiais. Para a realização de uma análise de risco, inicialmente deve-se identificar o perigo, o qual na área da saúde animal, geralmente, é o agente patogênico causador de uma doença. A etapa subsequente é a avaliação de riscos, na qual devem ser ponderadas, com suporte de técnicas específicas, as formas de ocorrência do perigo, bem como a magnitude de suas consequências. Entre as técnicas utilizadas nessa etapa, a análise de decisão por múltiplos critérios tem tido um crescente uso. Essa metodologia consegue associar e analisar, conjuntamente, diversas variáveis e, quando integrada ao sistema de informação geográfica, incorpora a dimensão espacial, tornando a ferramenta mais potente. A terceira etapa da análise de risco refere-se ao manejo dos riscos, que visa a propor medidas que mitiguem o risco, bem como avaliar o custo/benefício de cada medida. A última fase é a comunicação dos riscos, que deve ser iniciada juntamente com a análise de risco em si, deixando aberto um canal permanente de comunicação com todos os atores sociais interessados no estudo. O presente trabalho, inicialmente, realizou uma revisão da literatura sobre análise de risco, objetivando expor sua definição e processo de elaboração, assim como verificar como ela está sendo utilizada, quais são as limitações e os desafios do uso dessa ferramenta pelo serviço veterinário oficial brasileiro. Posteriormente, realizou-se uma avaliação de riscos para determinar as áreas de risco para a ocorrência de febre aftosa no Rio Grande do Sul e, ainda, avaliar o desempenho do sistema de vigilância estadual para essa enfermidade. Como resultado, verificou-se que os desafios para o desenvolvimento de uma análise de risco pelo serviço veterinário oficial brasileiro ainda são grandes, destacando-se aqueles relacionados à falta de dados e de pessoal capacitado, o que, por sua vez, pode estar relacionado com a realização de poucas análises de risco no Brasil. Na avaliação de riscos realizada pela técnica de múltiplos critérios, identificou-se que as regiões de fronteira internacional, além da região de Estrela, foram aquelas que apresentaram as áreas de maior risco de ocorrência da febre aftosa no estado do Rio Grande do Sul. As variáveis “proximidade da fronteira internacional”, “densidade de ruminantes” e “densidade de propriedades com suínos de subsistência” foram as que mais influenciaram no modelo. A “presença da unidade veterinária local no município” e a “quantidade de notificações de suspeita de enfermidade animal” foram as variáveis de maior relevância no indicador criado para avaliar o desempenho do sistema de vigilância. As regiões sudeste e sudoeste apresentaram os melhores desempenhos quando comparados com outras regiões do estado. A avaliação de riscos tornou-se um importante instrumento utilizado pelos gestores dos serviços veterinários oficiais na tomada de decisões, contribuindo para a escolha de alternativas que confiram, cientificamente, o menor risco sanitário. Com base neste estudo, os gestores gaúchos poderão escolher as ações sanitárias específicas para cada região do Rio Grande do Sul, servindo, portanto, como uma ferramenta de auxílio, a fim de mitigar o risco de ocorrência da febre aftosa. / As the main responsibility of the Official Veterinary Service is protecting animal and public health, an important tool to achieve this goals is the risk analysis, which began to be used in the 1990s. In order to conduct a risk analysis, it is initially necessary to identify the hazard, which in animal health is generally the pathogen causing a disease. The next step is risk assessment, which consists in evaluating different forms where hazard occurs as well as the magnitude of its consequences. Among various techniques that could be employed in this stage, the multiple criteria decision analysis has been increasingly used nowadays. This methodology associates and analyses jointly many variables and, when integrated with geographic information system, incorporates the spatial dimension, making it a powerful tool. The third risk analysis step refers to risk management, which aims to propose measures to mitigate the risk and assess costs and benefits of each measure. The communication of the risk is the last stage. It should be initiated along with the risk analysis itself, allowing an open and permanent communication with all interested stakeholders in the study. This work commenced with a literature review of risk analysis, so as to expose its definition and development process, as well as checking how it is being used, what limitations exist and the challenges of this tool usage by the Brazilian Official Veterinary Service. Subsequently, there was conducted a risk assessment to determine the risk areas for Foot and Mouth Disease occurrence in Rio Grande do Sul and also evaluate the State performance on surveillance system for this disease. As a result, the challenges for a development of a risk analysis by the Brazilian Official Veterinary Service are still found large, especially those related to the lack of data and trained personnel, resulting in a small number of this type of studies in Brazil. In this risk assessment study it was observed that international border areas, in addition to Estrela/RS region, were the ones which presented the greatest risk of Foot and Mouth Disease occurrence. The most important variables in the model were “international border proximity”, “ruminant density” and “pig farming properties density”. The “presence of a local veterinary unit in the city” and “the amount of suspected animal disease notifications” were the most relevant variables in the indicator created to evaluate the surveillance system performance. The Southeast and Southwest mesoregions showed the best results when compared with other mesoregions of the State. The risk assessment has become an important tool utilized by Official Veterinary Service managers in decision-making, owing to its scientifically proved contribution, which results in a better sanitary risk judgment by them. Based on this study, local managers can select specific animal health actions for each Rio Grande do Sul mesoregion, providing a supportive tool in order to mitigate the risk of Foot and Mouth occurrence.

A hipótese básica do presente trabalho é que embora a ocorrência de uma determinada doença possa apresentar impactos econômicos expressivos para a pecuária de um país - onerando não apenas a atividade produtiva - alguns produtores não reconhecem, individualmente, a importância devida em adotar medidas preventivas, uma vez que a ocorrência da doença não é frequente. Ademais, a existência de externalidades faz com que a ação de um produtor em relação às medidas sanitárias de seu rebanho afete os demais produtores da mesma região, o que também pode não ser percebido por eles. Diante disso, o presente trabalho desenvolve um procedimento teórico para a análise de decisões estratégicas dos produtores quanto à prevenção contra doenças em animais, face ao risco de contaminação de seu rebanho. O desenvolvimento do modelo é baseado nos preceitos da Teoria dos Jogos, e na análise econômica de benefício/custo como suporte da tomada de decisão do produtor. Depois de modelado o problema e determinados os possíveis equilíbrios do jogo, infere-se sobre as possíveis atuações do governo, no uso de incentivos econômicos (como indenizações e multas) para que o equilíbrio seja o da prevenção. Em seguida, o modelo teórico é aplicado a um caso específico de surto de febre aftosa no Brasil. Os resultados mostram que quando não se tem um mercado diferenciado para animal não vacinado, o equilíbrio do jogo tende para a situação onde os produtores decidem vacinar seu rebanho, sugerindo que não existe a necessidade de intervenção do governo para estimular a prevenção. Na prática, no entanto, o governo brasileiro estabelece políticas de incentivo, visto que alguns produtores não vacinam seu rebanho mesmo conhecendo os riscos, o que se traduz na falta de racionalidade dos mesmos. Considerando essa irracionalidade por parte de alguns produtores, o presente estudo é importante para que estes possam delinear panoramas de decisão, de forma a identificar as melhores ações a serem tomadas de forma coletiva. / The basic hypothesis of this study is that producers do not perceive, individually, the importance of adopting prevention measures, even when aware of the economic risks for them and for the local economy, because the outbreaks of some diseases are not frequent. Moreover, the presence of externalities is such that the action of one producer regarding sanitary measures of the herd affects other producers in the same region, which also cannot be perceived by them. This study aims to develop a theoretical procedure to infer about strategic decisions taken by producers to prevent animal disease in their herds, in face of the risk of contamination. The development of the model is based on the Game Theory, and the benefit cost analysis as support for producer\'s decision. After modeling the problem and determining the equilibriums, these are used to elaborate inferences about possible actions of the government through economic incentives (such as indemnities and fines) to encourage the prevention. Then, the theoretical model is applied to a specific case of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Brazil. The results indicate that in the absence of a differential market for non-vaccinated animals, the game equilibrium tends to the situation where producer\'s decisions are to vaccinate their herd, suggesting that government intervention is not necessary. Even though, the Brazilian government uses incentive policies for the cattle vaccination since some producers do not vaccinate their animals, despite of their awareness of the risks, which suggests lack of rationality. Considering the irrationality of some producers, this study is important for them to delineate decisions scenes, identifying the best actions to be taken in the collective context.

L’épizootie de fièvre aphteuse de 2001 telle qu’elle s’est déroulée en Grande-Bretagne a montré les limites de certains des systèmes de surveillance, d’intervention, d’anticipation et d’aide à la décision actuellement en place. Parallèlement, l’assouplissement des modalités d’utilisation de la vaccination a enrichi la palette des outils utilisables par le gestionnaire de risque. Une réévaluation pour la France a semblé ainsi opportune. Pour cela, le projet de recherche s’est proposé tout d’abord d’étudier l’organisation des différentes filières d’animaux de rente en France. L’analyse du réseau d’élevages français par la méthode d’analyse des réseaux sociaux a permis de caractériser les relations entre établissements et d’estimer une vulnérabilité structurale constante face à la diffusion de maladies apportées essentiellement par le réseau d’échanges bovins.Dans une deuxième partie, la diffusion de la maladie dans ce réseau d’élevages a été étudiée en s’appuyant sur des simulations générées par un modèle spécifiquement construit. L’efficacité et les coûts de différentes stratégies de lutte envisageables (combinaisons d’abattage sanitaire, abattage préventif et vaccination) ont été ensuite comparés. Les résultats obtenus ont montré l’absence d’une stratégie unique optimale à la fois sur le plan épidémiologique et économique et la nécessité de s’adapter au contexte local. En effet, la nature de la stratégie optimale varie selon la région concernée et l’acteur considéré. Ces travaux ont permis de créer un outil de réflexion pour aider à la décision, mais également un outil d’entraînement et de formation collective pour se préparer à une telle gestion de crise. / The 2001 Foot-and-mouth disease epizootic in the United Kingdom has illustrated limits in some established surveillance, control, anticipation and decision-making systems. At the same time, the relaxation of vaccination procedures has enhanced the set of usable tools by risk managers. A reassessment in France seemed needed.For this purpose, the research project firstly proposed to study the organization of the different livestock industries in France. The analysis of French holding network by using the method of social network analysis has led to characterize the relationships between holdings and to determine a constant structural vulnerability to diseases spread especially due to bovine trade network.Secondly, the disease spread in the holding network has been studied with simulations generated by a specifically built model. The cost-effectiveness of different control strategies (combining infected herd depopulation, pre-emptive culling and vaccination) were then compared. Results showed that no single epidemiological and economical optimal strategy existed and local context must be taken into account. Indeed, the cost-effective strategy changed according to the concerned area and the considered players.This research work allowed creating a thinking tool for decision-making but also a training tool for crisis management preparation.

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the industry impact of a hypothetical Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the Texas High Plains using alternative animal tracing levels. To accomplish this objective, an epidemiological disease spread model, AUSSPREAD, is used to simulate the FMD outbreak and an economic model is used to examine the impacts of different animal identification levels in cattle. The different levels of animal identification relate to the model?s ability to trace back the subsequent infected and/or dangerous contacts with which the initial outbreak herd has been in contact. The study examines direct disease management costs (slaughter, euthanasia, disposal, surveillance, and cleaning disinfection), forgone income, and other indirect costs (indemnity payments and welfare slaughter) for outbreaks originating from a large beef operation, a feedlot, and a saleyard across subsequent tracing periods from 1 to 10 days. Welfare slaughter and quarantine costs were estimated for the best and worst outbreaks from the feedlot operation. It is noteworthy that total direct costs of a FMD outbreak would be more extensive than the current study's calculations, which only analyzed the direct disease management costs. The increased days to trace dangerous contacts presented overall increases in outbreak losses over each outbreak scenario. Although outcome averages appear insensitive at times under the assumptions applied, the epidemiological model presented the possibility that traceability could reduce the risk of extreme outcomes in respect to the overall distribution of losses. For each cattle operation, the outbreaks stayed consistent or marginally increased with their respective average costs, but their maximum losses rose steadily, across the trace periods examined. The impact of increased traceability and decreased outbreak length can be justified in affecting FMD outbreak costs in a positive manner. The results provide the industry with estimations of different outbreak scenarios which can be used to inform the decision on the NAIS system. Longer tracing periods, larger simulations (by iteration), and further study of the model is necessary in order to more accurately imitate FMD outbreaks within the Texas High Plains and its detrimental effects.

The study was conducted in the Greater Kruger National Park Complex (GKNP), which consists of the Kruger National Park (KNP) and adjacent private game reserves and focuses primarily on the following objectives: • To monitor and evaluate the standard of the existing disease surveillance programmes for the following diseases, Foot and Mouth, Anthrax, Tuberculosis, Brucellosis and Rabies, within the Kruger National Park and adjacent private game reserves by evaluating the level of competency and knowledge in field rangers, field guides and trails rangers with regard to these specific diseases. It can be stated that important differences exist between disease surveillance techniques used for domestic animals and those used for wildlife (Bengis, R.G., Kock, R.A., & Fischer, J., 2002). According to Morner, T., Obendorf, D.L., Artios, M., & Woodford, M.H., 2002, it is more difficult to monitor diseases in wildlife than in domestic animals because wild animals are not constrained by boundaries and can roam over large. distances. For significant diseases in wildlife, an active surveillance programme may be the preferred approach with the aim to collect a certain number of samples from a target population (live or dead animals) to determine the point prevalence of certain pathogens. Active veterinary participation is essential in protected area management, with emphasis on training of technicians, rangers and field biologists with regard to specific diseases and their clinical signs, surveillance and sampling techniques, data collection, and reporting. For the purpose of this study, data collection was conducted by means of a questionnaire drawn up according to the related critical points as described in the Dufour grid (Dufour, 1998). The results of this study clearly showed a need to address certain important aspects regarding a wildlife disease programme within the GKNP. A more efficient wildlife disease surveillance programme, which included more specific and “hands-on” trained staff, would definitely ensure a better early warning system which would detect new or emerging disease outbreaks. / M. Tech. (Nature Conservation))