Abstract of thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Commerce and Management Dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Fiji : a cointegrated VAR analysis By Shiu Raj Singh The objective of this study is to examine how macroeconomic variables of Fiji inter-relate with aggregate demand and co-determine one another using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. This study did not use a prior theoretical framework but instead used economic justification for selection of variables. It was found that fiscal policy, which is generally used as a stabilisation tool, did not have a positive effect on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the short term. Effects on GDP growth were positive over the long term but not statistically significant. Furthermore, expansionary fiscal policy caused inflationary pressures. Fiji has a fixed exchange rate regime, therefore, it was expected that the focus of monetary policy would be the maintenance of foreign reserves. It was, however, found that monetary expansion in the short term resulted in positive effects on real GDP growth and resulted in inflation. The long term effects of monetary policy on real GDP growth were negative, which are explained by the fixed exchange rate regime, endogenous determination of money supply by the central bank, an unsophisticated financial market and, perhaps, an incomplete transmission of the policy. Both merchandise trade and visitor arrivals growth were found to positively contribute to short term and long term economic growth. Political instability was found not to have significant direct effects on real GDP growth but caused a significant decline in visitor arrivals which then negatively affected economic growth in the short term.

本文是探討管理浮動匯率時期（1978年第三季至1993年第三季），台灣地區經常帳盈餘發生的原因，同時考慮匯率因素、貨幣市場及商品與勞務市場吸納的情況。利用兩個向量自迴歸模型，分別納入：(1)匯率、利率、經常帳、消費節約及貨幣供給，(2)匯率、利率、經常帳、財政盈餘及貨幣供給，藉由因果關係檢定、預測誤差分解、及衝擊反應，分析經常帳失衡的原因。 　　實証結果指出：台灣地區經常帳盈餘，深受匯率、財政盈餘及消費節約的影響，這個結論與我國低估幣值與出口拓展的政策一致。且經常帳盈餘並不能夠顯著的影響貨幣供給，這個結論與央行沖銷的措施一致，其目的無非是要隔離國外部門影響國內貨幣。足見自由化的匯率政策，不但讓匯率反應出合理的水準值，同時可追求獨立的貨幣政策，配合著獎勵投資、消費及增加公共支出，增加國內吸納，藉以減少鉅幅的經常帳盈餘。