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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Theory states that if a country opens its markets to free trade that it facilitates the better utilization of resources for all the parties participating in the agreement resulting to a relative lowering of production cost, the increase in export earnings, larger markets to benefit from economies of scale and subsequent investment in production facilities will increase employment and general welfare. Namibia has three major free trade agreements or economic integration arrangements namely the Southem Africa Customs Union (SACU), the Cotonou agreement defining its export regime to the European Union and the South Africa European Union Trade Development and Co-operation Agreement defining its import regime via the Southem African Customs Union and the African Growth and Opportunities Act defining its relationship with the United States of America. These agreements are at varying levels of integration with the Southem African Customs Union in place already in 1920. Namibia uses taxes on international trade as a primary source of state income (28% to 32 %). As part of its membership to the SACU's Common External Pool revenue distribution, Namibia is compensated for not being able to charge import taxes on South African imports. South Africa has determined trade policy for SACU since its exception and used tariffs more as a form of protection of its own industries, rather than a source of state income. The lowering of tariffs on EU imports by means of the SA EU TDCA as well as WTO obligations will see the reduction of state income of Namibia of an estimated amount of N$ 480 million [Schade 20051. This will have dire consequence for the Namibian economy as the deficit of the state budget is already 4.7 % as compared to a norm of 3%. In this study the growth in export earnings as well as the investment response of the various free trade agreements have been analysed. Contrary to theory, economic integration has not led to the desired growth in export earnings as well as significant investment responses due to preferential access provided by these agreements. Significant growth in exports is limited to specific sectors, notably fish to the European Union and apparel to the USA. Investments were also limited to these sectors. Free trade and preferential access did not lead to the diversification of the Namibian economy and has on the contrary inflicted severe blows to the critical beef industry in the near past and over the long term has led to trade diversion towards South Africa as well as the European Union. Investments and increases in export earnings are too little to offset the reduction of state income by the liberalization of tariffs and will result in Namibia becoming more marginalised if it does not counter the situation by better trade policies that are to be formulated along with the other SACU members. These policies will take time to be concluded as of yet none of the institutions of SACU has become operational. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die teorie van vryhandel bepaal as 'n land sy mark oopmaak vir vryhandel dat dit sal lei tot die verbeterde benutting van hulpbronne vir al die partye tot 'n vryhandelsooreenskoms deur middel van die verlaging van produksiekoste, die verhoging van uitvoerinkomste, die vergroting van markte wat kan voordeel trek uit skaal van, ekonomieë asook die verhoging van gepaardgaande belegging wat werkskepping en die algemene welsyn sal verhoog. Namibie is deel van drie vryhandelsooreenkomste of ekonomiese integrasie samewerking naamlik die Suider Afrikaanse Doane Unie (SADU), die Cotonou verdrag wat sy uitvoer na die Europese Unie bepaal, die Suid Afrika Europese Unie Handel, Ontwikkeling en Samewerkingsooreenkoms (SA EU TOCA) wat sy invoere vanaf Suid Afrika via die SADU bepaal en die African Growth and Opportunffies Act wat sy uitvoere na die VSA bepaal. Hierdie ooreenkomste is op verskillende vlakke van ekonomiese integrasie met SADU wat alreeds sedert 1920 bestaan. Namibie gebruik belasting op intemasionale handel as 'n primere bron van staatsinkomste (28% tot 32 %). Namibia word as lid van SADU gekompenseer deur middel van die Gemeenskaplike Eksteme Inkomste Poel vir die gebrek om invoerbelasting op Suid Afrikaanse produkte te hef. Suid-Afrika het sedert die ontstaan van SADU die handelsbeleid daarvan bepaal en het tariewe gebruik om sy eie industrieë te beskerm in plaas van 'n bron van staatsinkomste. Die verlaging van tariewe deur middel van die SA EU TOCA asook verpligtinge van die Wereldhandelsorganisasie sal tot gevolg hê die vermindering van Namibiese staatsinkomste van N$ 480 miljoen, Dit sal geweldige negatiewe gevolge inhou vir Namibie wat alreeds met 'n tekort op die begroting van 4.7% sit in vergelyking met 'n aanvaarde norm van 3%. In hierdie werkstuk is die groei in uitvoerverdienste asook die beleggingsreaksie van die verskillende ooreenskomste ondersoek. Daar is gevind dat desnieteenstaande die teorie, ekonomiese integrasie nie gelei het tot die verlangde groei in uitvoere of beleggings nie. Uitsondenike groei in uitvoere is beperk tot spesifieke sektore naamlik vis na die Europese Unie en klerasie na die VSA. Beleggings is ook beperk tot hierdie sektore. Vryhandel en voorkeurtoegang het nie gelei tot die diversifikasie van Namibie se ekonomie nie en het dit op die keper beskou gelei tot kritiese terugslae op die kritiese beesvleisindustrie in die nabye verlede en het dit oor die langtermyn gelei tot die wegleiding van handel na Suid - Afrika en die Europese Unie. Beleggings en toename in uitvoer is te min om die vermindering van staatsinkomste deur middel van die liberalisering van handel teen te werk. Dit sal tot gevolg hê dat Namibia al meer gemarginaliseerd gaan raak indien dit nie die situasie kan teenwerk deur middel van beter handelsbeleid wat bepaal moet word deur onderhandeling met ander SADU lede nie. Hierdie beleidsrigtings sal lank neem voordat dit van krag sal kom aangesien nie een van die SADU instellings al in volle bedryf is nie.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Since the beginning of the economic reforms in 1978, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has attracted continuous interest from foreign investors, both in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade, making the PRC the second largest host of FDI in the world. Despite occasional declines in foreign investment, foreign investors remain very interested in the long-term prospects for doing business in the country. The PRC's phenominal economic growth, large consumer market, the accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and the government's commitment to open markets, economic reforms, and restructuring of the economy are amongst the factors that continue to attract foreign investment and trade. Despite the huge market potential and strong desire by foreign investors to do business in The PRC, the track record of foreign companies and investments in the country have at best been mixed. While some foreign investors have reaped large profits, others have failed to meet their performance targets. Foreign investors have faced a number of problems that are not market or trade related, but associated with economic, political and social trends and developments, including corruption, nepotism, crime, poor infrastructure, a depleted banking system, inefficient legal system, unemployment and poverty. Therefore, it is not surprising that many foreign investors are asking themselves whether the benefits of doing business in the PRC are worth the risks. In an increasingly uncertain and instable international trade and investment environment political risk assessment and management have become essential components of any profitable foreign investment strategy. Consequently, numerous political risk-rating agencies and a large number of both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods have emerged over the years. There is, however, neither general consensus regarding the definition of political risk nor a comprehensively systematic method of conducting political risk assessment. The definitions of political risk include a wide variety of indicators, ranging from governmental actions to all non-market developments. The number of methods available for political risk analysis range from informal, unsystematic assessments by a few individuals to formal, systematic, and sophisticated risk analysis models. There are, however, some similarities. The main objective of political risk analyses is to describe, explain, and forecast political conditions and events that affect the interests of foreign investors operating abroad or planning to enter a foreign market. In addition, political risk analyses attempt to forecast losses, and recommend means of managing the risk, avoiding the losses, and seizing the opportunities. Scenario planning is one of the qualitative methods used to analyse political risk. Scenario planning, however, differs from most other approaches as it does not try to accurately predict what will happen in the future or to provide the right tool for foreseeing the future developments, but to offer a range of possible futures. The underlying assumption is that the future cannot be forecast or predicted with certainty, but that the very process of thinking about the future and exploring the implications of possible future scenarios may have a profound impact on foreign investment and trade. Scenario planning is a method that provides insightful information necessary to understand, anticipate and respond to change and uncertainty in the future PRC. The development of four 20-year scenarios in this study demonstrates that the prospects for foreign investment can be both positive and negative. When the economy continues to grow strongly, and the government is able to maintain a stable environment and successfully implement the necessary changes foreign investors are expected to reap the desired benefits. However, if the problems facing the PRC at the moment further deteriorate foreign investors could expect increased risks, and the possibility of failure. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vanaf die begin van die ekonomiese transformasie in 1978, het die Volksrepubliek van Sjina voortdurende belangstelling van buitelandse beleggers geniet. Hierdie belangstelling was gemanifesteer in die vorm van direkte buitelandse belegging asook internasionale handel. Sjina het so aanloklik vir buitelandse beleggers geword, dat dit tans die wêreld se tweede grootste ontvanger van buitelandse belegging is, en beleggers stel veral belang in die lang termyn moontlikhede van besigheid doen in die land. Die Volksrepubliek van Sjina se merkwaardige ekonomiese groei, groot verbruikersmark, toetreding tot die Wêreld Handels Organisasie, en die regering se verbintenis aan die ontwikkeling van 'n oop ekonomie, ekonomiese transformasie en die herstrukturering van die ekonomie as sulks, is sommige van die faktore wat toenemend buitelandse belegging en handel aanlok. Ten spyte van die groot verbruikersmark potensiaal en die sterk begeerte van buitelandse beleggers om besigheid te doen in die Volksrepubliek van Sjina, is die ervarings van buitelandse maatskappye tot dusver gemeng. Alhoewel sommige buitelandse beleggers groot wins gemaak het, het ander minder sukses ervaar. Buitelandse beleggers word ook gekonfronteer met baie probleme wat nie noodwendig met die mark of handel gepaard gaan nie. Hierdie probleme word geassosieer met ekonomiese, politieke en sosiale gebeure en faktore insluitend korrupsie, misdaad, nepotisme, swak infrastruktuur, 'n ledige bank sisteem, 'n ondoeltreffende regssisteem, werkloosheid en armoede. Baie buitelandse beleggers betwyfel dus moontlik die vraag of besigheid doen in die Volksrepubliek van Sjina tog meer voordele inhou as risiko. In 'n wêreld waar internasionale handel en belegging met onsekerheid en onstabiliteit gepaard gaan, het die aspekte van politieke risiko skadebepaling en -bestuur belangrike komponente van enige winsgewende buitelandse belegging strategie geword. Gevolglik het verskeie politieke risiko-analise agentskappe asook 'n verskeie risiko-analise metodes van beide kwantitatiewe en kwalitatiewe aard hul verskyning gemaak. Ten spyte van die bogenoemde is daar nog steeds geen veralgemeende konsensus oor die definisie van politieke risiko, of 'n oorsigtelik sistematiese metode van politieke risiko-skatting onderneem nie. Die definisies van politieke risiko sluit in 'n groot verskeidenheid van indikatore wat wissel van regeringaksies tot mark-onverwante gebeure. Die verskeidendheid van metodologië wat gebruik word in politieke risiko-analise wissel van informeel, onsistematiese skattings, tot formele, sistematiese en gesofistikeerde risiko-analise modelle. Die primêre doel van politieke risiko-analise is om te beskryf en te verduidelik, en ook om politieke omstandighede en gebeurtenisse wat die belangstelling van buitelandse beleggers affekteer te voorspel. Addisioneel beoog politieke risiko-analise om ook die moontlikheid van verlies te voorspel en om 'n strategie vir die bestuur van die risiko aan te beveel, om sodoende verlies so ver moontlik te vermy asook om moontlike geleenthede aan te gryp. Senariobeplanning is een van die kwalitiatiewe metodes wat gebruik kan word in die analise van politieke risiko. Senariobeplanning verskil van ander benaderings in die sin dat dit nie akkurate voorspellings vir die toekoms as sulks maak nie, maar eerder 'n verskeidenheid van moontlike toekomstige omstandighede weergee. Die ontwikkeling van vier 20-jaar senarios vir die Volksrepubliek van Sjina in hierdie studie illustreer hoe die uitsigte vir buitelandse belegging positief sowel as negatief kan wees. Indien die Sjinese ekonomie verder groei en die regering in staat is om 'n stabiele omgewing in stand te hou asook die nodige veranderings te implimenteer, kan buitelandse beleggers verwag om beoogde voordele van buitelandse belegging te ervaar. Maar as die probleme wat die Volksrepubliek van Sjina op die oomblik ervaar voortduur en lof verswak, kan buitelandse beleggers verhoogde risiko sowel as die moontlikheid van mislukkings verwag.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This work empirically examines South African data covering the years 1956-2011 to look into the relationship between FDI and inequality. By investigating how FDI is linked to inequality, policy makers would be better poised to develop policies that optimise on the benefits of FDI without the dampening effect of inequality. The benefits of FDI, particularly to the South African economy, are that it provides capital to finance investment by bridging the savings gap in the country. In addition to that, FDI facilitates transfer of technology and managerial skills from the source country. Moreover, FDI has a positive impact on balance of payment not only because of the impact capital inflow has on balance of payment, but because FDI also promotes exports of the country to world markets. Empirical evidence presented in literature suggests that the FDI-inequality relationship is complex. In some locations, for example in the US, Latin America and in some developing countries, FDI tends to raise income inequality. In other locations evidence is inconclusive. The results of this study showed that there is a negative relationship between inequality and foreign direct investment for the period examined in the study. This finding is not consistent with the a priori expectation that foreign direct investment increases inequality. Contrary to what has been predicted, the findings show that foreign direct investment is likely to reduce inequality. The findings also show that there is a statistically significant and positive relationship between GDP and inequality.

The purpose of this paper was to examine the impact that the proliferation of regional trade agreements have had on the Multilateral Trading System and whether by allowing regional trade agreements under the World Trade Organization rules, the members of the World Trade Organization have not unwittingly weakened the multilateral trading system. It also examined the effect the proliferation of regional trade agreements have had on the special and deferential treatment for developing countries within the system.

Few exploratory ventures would ever be undertaken if the explorer appreciated his own limitations at the outset. Although his ultimate destination is unclear, the route uncertain, the terrain unfamiliar and the tools inadequate he is spurred initially by a self-assurance born of his own limited knowledge. Unfortunately, that same self-assurance ill-equips him for the difficulties which he inevitably has to face en route. This thesis has been no exception to this pattern. It has involved more than its fair share of blind alleys, false trails, disorientation, retracing of footsteps and re-establishment of bearings. It has occasionally been marked by that feeling of despairing bewilderment which confronts the uncertain traveller lost in unfamiliar territory or overwhelmed by the novelty and complexity of his surroundings. Like most exploratory journeys, it has been difficult to decide when the ultimate destination has been reached and almost impossible in restrospect to recall the exact route by which that particular point was achieved. However, the historian of Dahomey is fortunate in comparison with the explorer venturing into virgin territory. For he is well served by the pioneers who have blazed the trail before him and by the signposts which are available to him. The Kingdom of Dahomey has been well covered by primary source material and contemporary documentation and publications.

Die onafhanklike lande van die Suider-Afrikaanse streek het, sedert hul respektiewelike onafhanklikwording, besluit om geen politieke bande of verhoudinge met hul kragtige, suidelike buurman, Suid-Afrika, aan te knoop nie. Al hierdie lande het op politieke gebied daarin geslaag, behalwe Malawi. Op ekonomiese gebied, egter, en veral op die gebied van handelsverhoudinge, was hierdie frontlinie state nie suksesvol nie. In ‘n poging om Suid-Afrika te isoleer, is ‘n ekonomiese blok, die SADCC, op die been gebring. Met die stigting van die SADCC in 1980, het die groep die vermindering van ekonomiese afhanklikheid van die Republiek van Suid-Afrika as hoofdoelwit gestel. Hierdie studie is ‘n poging om die SADCC se suksesse en mislukkings in hierdie verband te evalueer. Verder word probeer om die probleme wat die organisasie ondervind het in hul pogings ter bereiking van hierdie doelwit, binne die Suider-Afrikaanse geo-politieke omgewing, te ondersoek, veral in die lig van Suid-Afrika se vasbeslotenheid om regionale ekonomiese en politieke heerskappy te behou. Terselfdertyd poog die navorser om klem te lê op die deursettingsvermoë van SADCC lede om hul afhanklikheid van die Republiek te verminder – al was die resultaat in meeste gevalle gering. Hierdie studie toon dat die ekonomiese realiteit van die Suider-Afrikaanse streek die politieke retoriek aan beide kante van die politieke spektrum ten volle oorheers het. Die aard van die handelsverhoudinge tussen die RSA en die SADCC ledelande is deurgaans deur strukturele kontraste en weersprekende feite gekompliseer. / Prof. G. Verhoef

M.A. / Please refer to full text to view abstract

This thesis studies the integration of South Africa into the global economy. It uses a structural dynamic factor model approach, instead of the well known structural vector autoregressive method, as it accommodates a large panel of time series variables characterized by a number of series significantly larger than the number of observations available. South African economic cycles show some comovement with cycles of its trading partners. But the synchronization with major trading partners has declined over time due to structural reforms initiated by the post-apartheid government. A new monetary regime, trade and financial openness, an increase in political stability together with reduced uncertainty have outweighed South African output comovement with the rest of the world. Shocks from advanced economies (the US and the EU) and East Asian countries, especially demand shocks, affect domestic variables significantly. The main channels are business and consumer confidence, trade variables, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Although South Africa comoves with Latin American countries, trade and financial linkages are still very weak. The level of development, perceptions of economic agents, and fluctuations of advanced economies (the US and the EU) are the main reasons contributing to the synchronization of their variables. South Africa’s position in Africa as economic leader starts to produce results leading to output synchronization with some of its partners’ from SADC. Similar to the Latin American scenario, the main reason is that the two sides share the EU as primary trading partner. Because of the vulnerability of the South African economy, policymakers must pay a particular attention and monitor closely developments in the global economy. In the same line, they should promote policies that enable the country to have access to international markets. Given the interdependence with the rest of the world, policymakers should monitor closely the performance of the global economy. Nevertheless, idiosyncratic features of the South African economy do play a role in the explaining fluctuations in economic activity. Hence, policies that lead to a structural transformation of the domestic economy are necessary. Reforms that allow labor market flexibility; promote competition; and support human capital formation through education, are imperative. / Doctor Francisco Nadal De Simone Professor Daniel Marais