Deteriorating air quality is one of the major problems faced worldwide and in particular in Asia. The world's most polluted megacities are located in Asia highlighting the urgent need for efforts to improve the air quality. New Delhi (India), one of the world's most polluted cities, was the host of the Common Wealth Games during the period of 4-14 October 2010. This high profile event provided a good opportunity to accelerate efforts to improve air quality. Computational advances now allow air quality forecast models to fully couple the meteorology with chemical constituents within a unified modeling system that allows two-way interactions. The WRF-Chem model is used to simulate air quality in New Delhi. The thesis focuses on evaluating air quality and meteorology feedbacks. Four nested domains ranging from South Asia, Northern India, NCR Delhi and Delhi city at 45km, 15km, 5km and 1.67km resolution for a period of 20day (26thsep-15thoct, 2010) are used in the study. The predicted mean surface concentrations of various pollutants show similar spatial distributions with peak values in the middle of the domain reflecting the traffic and population patterns in the city. Along with these activities, construction dust and industrial emissions contribute to high levels of criteria pollutants. The study evaluates the WRF-Chem capabilities using a new emission inventory developed over Delhi at a fine resolution of 1.67km and evaluating the results with observational data from 11 monitoring sties placed at various Game venues. The contribution of emission sectors including transportation, power, industry, and domestic to pollutant concentrations at targeted regions are studied and the results show that transportation and domestic sector are the major contributors to the pollution levels in Delhi, followed by industry. Apart from these sectors, emissions outside of Delhi contribute 20-50% to surface concentrations depending on the species. This indicates that pollution control efforts should take a regional perspective. Air quality projections in Delhi for 2030 are investigated. The Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model is used to generate a 2030 future emission scenario for Delhi using projections of air quality control measures and energy demands. Net reductions in CO concentrations by 50%, and increases of 140% and 40% in BC and NOx concentrations, respectively, are predicted. The net changes in concentration are associated with increases in transport and industry sectors. The domestic sector still has a significant contribution to air pollutant levels. The air quality levels show a profound effect under this scenario on the environment and human health. The increase in pollution from 2010 to 2030 is predicted to cause an increase in surface temperature by ~0.65K. These increasing pollution levels also show effects on the radiative forcing. The high aerosols loading i.e. BC, PM2.5 and PM10 levels show strong influence on the short and longwave fluxes causing strong surface dimming and strong atmosphere heating due to BC. These results indicate transport and domestic sectors should be targeted for air quality and climate mitigations.

<p>Northern peatlands (>45°N) mostly initiated during the Holocene and have been a large C sink to the atmosphere. Northern peatland formation prefers wet and cold condition where the productivity persistently exceeds decomposition and thereby C accumulates. As the northern high latitude region is likely to be warmer in the future, whether northern peatlands will continue being C sinks or switch to C sources is uncertain. To address this issue, I revise and apply a process-based model designed for describing peatland biogeochemical processes, Peatland Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (PTEM), to simulate the C dynamics at both site and regional level, from 15 ka BP-2300. For the site-level simulation, PTEM 1.0 is substantially revised into PTEM 2.0 in terms of peat accumulation process, plant functional types, productivity and decomposition, and soil thermal properties. A simulation from peat initiation to 2300 is conducted for three northern peatland sites. I found PTEM 2.0 can effectively capture the historical C accumulation progress, when compared with the observation. The future simulation indicates northern peatlands have reduced C sink capacity or switch to a C source under N insufficiency and water table deepening. </p> <p>Afterwards, a historical pan-Arctic simulation during 15ka BP-1990 is conducted. PTEM 2.0 is revised into PTEM 2.1 by adding spatially-explicit run-on and run off processes. The spatially-explicit peat initiation dataset is derived from neural network approach and a spatially-explicit peat expansion trend is established on top of it. My estimated pan-Arctic peatland C storage is 396-421 Pg C with the long-term C accumulation rate (CAR) of 22.9 g C∙m-2 yr-1. The simulated spatial distribution of peat C and the temporal pattern of CAR both agree with literature values. I analyzed northern peatlands’ response to historical climate change since 0.5 ka BP and found decreased CAR in the warmer non-permafrost and permafrost-thaw region, while the opposite was found in the colder permafrost region. The results indicate warmer southern peatlands will first switch to a C source under warming while more northern peatlands will become larger sinks. </p> <p>Based on the result of historical simulation, a future simulation is conducted for 1990-2300 with peatland expansion/shrinkage considered. PTEM 2.1 is revised into PTEM 2.2 such that the water table depth, run-on and run-off are estimated from a TOPMODEL approach. In the 21st century, northern peatlands are projected to be a C source of 1.2-13.3 Pg C under five out of six climate scenarios. During 2100-2300, northern peatlands under all scenarios are a C source under all climate scenarios. Northern peatlands switch to C sources due to deepening water table depth, insufficient N availability, and plant functional type shift. I found that northern peatlands remain as a C sink until a mean pan-Arctic peatlands annual temperature reaches -2.09 - -2.89°C. This study predicts a northern peatland sink to a source shift around 2050, earlier than previous estimates of after 2100, and emphasizes the vulnerability of northern peatlands to climate change. </p>

In this thesis, I will explore the idea that choices between present, smaller value options and future, larger value options depend on how much individuals trust the future to deliver the reward. Due to this aspect of trust, the individual must build their estimate of trust based on information for their present environment and their future expectations. This estimate of future trust can change across different time points in the same environment (i.e., before and after a national election) and between environments in the same time point (i.e., between two countries experiencing different economic rates of change). In this set of presented experiments, I will explore the link between decision environment and delay discounting, as well as the relationship between the contents of future perception and delay discounting. These two experiments will test differences in delay discounting (a) across two economic systems (China and the U.S.), as well as (b) before and after a national election (2018 U.S. Midterms). The results of the different decision environments study show that the delay discounting rates are significantly different across the two countries, specifically within the framing of present and future. These differences are not explained by differences in culture effects or individual differences in personality traits, suggesting that difference in environment is driving the effect. The results from the Midterm election experiments show evidence for differences in delay discounting between political identities and income groups. There are also differences in how these two groups perceive the contents of their future before and after the election. Specifically with evidence that negative future projection corresponds with increased delay discounting. Overall, these experiments show that delay discounting can be affected by the way information is framed within an environment and how we expect our environments to change over time.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第25464号 / 地環博第250号 / 新制||地環||50(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 藤原 拓, 教授 越後 信哉, 教授 梶井 克純, 教授 上田 佳代 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23497号 / 工博第4909号 / 新制||工||1767(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 清水 芳久, 教授 米田 稔, 准教授 松田 知成 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-21T20:31:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 GlauciaHASS.pdf: 1246482 bytes, checksum: ce2509158e4246435e52fb77e9d842ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-03-10 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This investigation had as object the orientation way of historical sense from students in their relation with the language. The research has as theoretical fundament the studies of narrative and of historical consciousness by Paul Ricoeur and Jörn Rüsen. The study tried to answer the following questions: what are the representations of future revelead through the time articulations made by the historical consciousness manifested in the narratives of young students of fundamental and middle learning levels? In what degree can we identify in the narratives the attribution of historical sense to the experience as a way of practical life orientation of the students? The objective of this study is to identify the attribution of historical sense to the experience as a mean of practical life orientation of the students through the analysis of their visions of future described by them in written productions. For this purpose, a data search was made in two state schools in the city of Ponta Grossa, with primary and secondary level students that gave those informations through the construction of written and oral narratives. In all, five groups of informants were formed: three with written narratives and two with oral narratives, obtained through the technique of focal group. The research has qualitative nature and for the data treatment was followed the methodology of content analysis, as proposed by Laurence Bardin. As conclusions we presented the students difficulty in project themselves in time as caused above all by a grammatical difficulty in the application of the verbal times into action, lack of empathy capacity and, identity crisis and of the public power action related to consumerism conditions. / Esta investigação teve como objeto o modo de orientação de sentido histórico dos estudantes em sua relação com a linguagem. A pesquisa tem como fundamentação teórica os estudos acerca da narrativa e da consciência histórica de Paul Ricoeur e de Jörn Rüsen. O estudo buscou responder às seguintes questões: Quais as representações de futuro reveladas pelas articulações temporais realizadas pela consciência histórica manifestadas nas narrativas de jovens estudantes do ensino fundamental e médio? Em que medida podemos identificar nas narrativas a atribuição de sentido histórico à experiência como meio de orientação da vida prática dos estudantes? Como objetivo desse estudo tem-se identificar a atribuição de sentido histórico à experiência como meio de orientação da vida prática dos estudantes mediante a análise das visões de futuro por eles descritas nas produções textuais resultantes. Para tanto, um coleta de dados foi realizada em duas escolas estaduais da cidade de Ponta Grossa, junto a alunos de ensino fundamental e médio que forneceram os dados mediante elaboração de narrativas escritas e orais. No total foram cinco grupos de informantes: três de narrativas escritas e dois de narrativas orais obtidas a partir da técnica de grupo focal. A pesquisa é de natureza qualitativa e no tratamento dos dados procedemos segundo a metodologia de análise de conteúdo, conforme proposta por Laurence Bardin. Como conclusões apresentamos a dificuldade dos alunos de se projetarem no tempo como derivada sobretudo de uma dificuldade gramatical na aplicação dos tempos verbais à ação, falta da capacidade de empatia, e crise identitária e da atuação na esfera pública relacionadas a condições de consumo.

[ES] La presente tesis doctoral propone la arquitectura de un sistema de Geo-visualización Espaciotemporal de actividad delictiva y criminal, para ser aplicada a Sistemas de Comando y Control (C2S) específicamente dentro de sus Sistemas de Información de Comando y Control (C2IS). El sistema de Geo-visualización Espaciotemporal se basa en el análisis masivo de datos reales de actividad delictiva, proporcionado por la Policía Nacional Colombiana (PONAL) y está compuesto por dos aplicaciones diferentes: la primera permite al usuario geo-visualizar espaciotemporalmente de forma dinámica, las concentraciones, tendencias y patrones de movilidad de esta actividad dentro de la extensión de área geográfica y el rango de fechas y horas que se precise, lo cual permite al usuario realizar análisis e interpretaciones y tomar decisiones estratégicas de acción más acertadas; la segunda aplicación permite al usuario geo-visualizar espaciotemporalmente las predicciones de la actividad delictiva en periodos continuos y cortos a modo de tiempo real, esto también dentro de la extensión de área geográfica y el rango de fechas y horas de elección del usuario. Para estas predicciones se usaron técnicas clásicas y técnicas de Machine Learning (incluido el Deep Learning), adecuadas para el pronóstico en multiparalelo de varios pasos de series temporales multivariantes con datos escasos. Las dos aplicaciones del sistema, cuyo desarrollo se muestra en esta tesis, están realizadas con métodos novedosos que permitieron lograr estos objetivos de efectividad a la hora de detectar el volumen y los patrones y tendencias en el desplazamiento de dicha actividad, mejorando así la conciencia situacional, la proyección futura y la agilidad y eficiencia en los procesos de toma de decisiones, particularmente en la gestión de los recursos destinados a la disuasión, prevención y control del delito, lo cual contribuye a los objetivos de ciudad segura y por consiguiente de ciudad inteligente, dentro de arquitecturas de Sistemas de Comando y Control (C2S) como en el caso de los Centros de Comando y Control de Seguridad Ciudadana de la PONAL. / [CA] Aquesta tesi doctoral proposa l'arquitectura d'un sistema de Geo-visualització Espaitemporal d'activitat delictiva i criminal, per ser aplicada a Sistemes de Comandament i Control (C2S) específicament dins dels seus Sistemes d'informació de Comandament i Control (C2IS). El sistema de Geo-visualització Espaitemporal es basa en l'anàlisi massiva de dades reals d'activitat delictiva, proporcionada per la Policia Nacional Colombiana (PONAL) i està composta per dues aplicacions diferents: la primera permet a l'usuari geo-visualitzar espaitemporalment de forma dinàmica, les concentracions, les tendències i els patrons de mobilitat d'aquesta activitat dins de l'extensió d'àrea geogràfica i el rang de dates i hores que calgui, la qual cosa permet a l'usuari fer anàlisis i interpretacions i prendre decisions estratègiques d'acció més encertades; la segona aplicació permet a l'usuari geovisualitzar espaciotemporalment les prediccions de l'activitat delictiva en períodes continus i curts a mode de temps real, això també dins l'extensió d'àrea geogràfica i el rang de dates i hores d'elecció de l'usuari. Per a aquestes prediccions es van usar tècniques clàssiques i tècniques de Machine Learning (inclòs el Deep Learning), adequades per al pronòstic en multiparal·lel de diversos passos de sèries temporals multivariants amb dades escasses. Les dues aplicacions del sistema, el desenvolupament de les quals es mostra en aquesta tesi, estan realitzades amb mètodes nous que van permetre assolir aquests objectius d'efectivitat a l'hora de detectar el volum i els patrons i les tendències en el desplaçament d'aquesta activitat, millorant així la consciència situacional , la projecció futura i l'agilitat i eficiència en els processos de presa de decisions, particularment en la gestió dels recursos destinats a la dissuasió, prevenció i control del delicte, la qual cosa contribueix als objectius de ciutat segura i per tant de ciutat intel·ligent , dins arquitectures de Sistemes de Comandament i Control (C2S) com en el cas dels Centres de Comandament i Control de Seguretat Ciutadana de la PONAL. / [EN] This doctoral thesis proposes the architecture of a Spatiotemporal Geo-visualization system of criminal activity, to be applied to Command and Control Systems (C2S) specifically within their Command and Control Information Systems (C2IS). The Spatiotemporal Geo-visualization system is based on the massive analysis of real data of criminal activity, provided by the Colombian National Police (PONAL) and is made up of two different applications: the first allows the user to dynamically geo-visualize spatiotemporally, the concentrations, trends and patterns of mobility of this activity within the extension of the geographic area and the range of dates and times that are required, which allows the user to carry out analyses and interpretations and make more accurate strategic action decisions; the second application allows the user to spatially visualize the predictions of criminal activity in continuous and short periods like in real time, this also within the extension of the geographic area and the range of dates and times of the user's choice. For these predictions, classical techniques and Machine Learning techniques (including Deep Learning) were used, suitable for multistep multiparallel forecasting of multivariate time series with sparse data. The two applications of the system, whose development is shown in this thesis, are carried out with innovative methods that allowed achieving these effectiveness objectives when detecting the volume and patterns and trends in the movement of said activity, thus improving situational awareness, the future projection and the agility and efficiency in the decision-making processes, particularly in the management of the resources destined to the dissuasion, prevention and control of crime, which contributes to the objectives of a safe city and therefore of a smart city, within architectures of Command and Control Systems (C2S) as in the case of the Citizen Security Command and Control Centers of the PONAL. / Salcedo González, ML. (2023). Arquitectura de un sistema de geo-visualización espacio-temporal de actividad delictiva, basada en el análisis masivo de datos, aplicada a sistemas de información de comando y control (C2IS) [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/192685