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Utilização do indicador custo em risco, na decisão de apreçamento em projetos de alta tecnologia, em leilões reversos e em concorrências de menor preçoMauad, Luiz Guilherme Azevedo 01 July 2010 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2010-07-01 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Purchasing high quality and low price products has become a consumer fixation, mainly where the lowest price is demanded and in reverses auctions, whether electronic or not. The importance of establishing retail prices of projects, products and services has been increasing. Therefore, it has become a strategic and challenging task for managers while also being one of their great fears. In a global and highly competitive market, price setting may influence consumers buying choices: a product s value and quality, which meet their expectations, will sell a product or project. On the other hand, a price inaccurately fixed may turn offers down and lead a company into unwished results. Research shows that markup pricing method is still the most common technique used by companies. However, fixing a price based on this method and taking into account a deterministic cost value may lead a company into making the wrong decisions and taking unnecessary risks. Prices undergo the influence of several costs and market related factors, which, somehow, have some kind of uncertainty risk. Nevertheless, when one is dealing with costs this uncertainty becomes more latent.
Therefore, they must be taken into consideration in the company s pricing process. The present research study, based on RiskMetrics concepts such as VaR and, mainly,
CorporateMetrics, proposes and applies a pricing model named Cost at Risk based Price (PCeR) in a high technology venture. The model approaches costs incurred stochastically
instead of deterministically and takes into account the risks inherent to their composing parameters. The model has proven to be a useful and flexible tool, which offers to managers greater understanding when fixing retail prices. That understanding may assist organizations to reach a market, overcome their competitors and grow profitably. / Adquirir produtos com qualidade e preços baixos tornou-se uma obsessão para o consumidor,principalmente, nas concorrências em que o menor preço é exigido e nos leilões reversos,realizados por meio eletrônico ou não. A fixação de preços de venda para projetos, produtos e/ou serviços adquire, a cada dia, maior importância. Torna-se uma atividade estratégica e um dos grandes desafios para os gestores e, porque não dizer, um dos seus grandes temores. Em um mercado global e altamente competitivo, o dimensionamento de preço pode influir na decisão de compra do consumidor: o estabelecimento de valor e qualidade que atendam à sua expectativa favorece a venda do produto, ou projeto, já um preço mal dimensionado pode fazê-lo refugar ofertas e levar a empresa a resultados indesejados. Estudos mostram que a precificação custo acrescido , ainda hoje, é a técnica mais utilizada pelas empresas, para cumprir essa função. Porém, definir o preço, com base neste modelo e considerar apenas um valor de custo determinístico, poderá levar a empresa a decisões errôneas e riscos desnecessários. Sabe-se que o preço sofre influência de uma série de fatores ligados ao custo e ao mercado que, de certa forma, contêm certo grau de incerteza, porém é nos custos que estas
incertezas tornam-se mais latentes. Então, não se pode deixar de considerá-las no processo de precificação da empresa. Este trabalho, baseado nos conceitos propostos pelo RiskMetrics, como o VaR e, principalmente, nas CorporateMetrics, propõe e aplica, em uma empresa de
alta tecnologia, um modelo de precificação denominado Preço baseado no Custo em Risco (PCeR), que aborda os custos incorridos não mais de maneira determinística, mas de forma
estocástica, levando em consideração os riscos inerentes aos parâmetros que o compõem. O modelo mostrou ser uma ferramenta útil e flexível aos gestores, oferecendo uma maior
visibilidade na definição do preço de venda, visibilidade essa que pode levar a organização a conquistar mercado, superar a concorrência e crescer com lucratividade.
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Estratégia empresarial de sucesso no Brasil: um estudo sobre o setor eletroeletrônicoKurahashi, Toshiki January 2004 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2004 / In this stúdy, the criticai factors of successful management strategy in Brazil are identified, with a particular focus on companies in the electronics industry. Five companies with outstanding performance results were studied. Results indicated that among the most important factors in establishing competitive advantage were: operational improvement, risk management strategy, and empowerment o f local management. In addition, this study identifies some of the reasons for poor performance among Japanese companies in the Brazilian electronics industry. Some of these reasons are the poor risk management capabilities (dueto the fact that most of Japanese companies were historically developed in a low risk environment resulting from Japanese govemmental protection atid interference) and an absence o f necessary empowerment o f management decision from the local Japanese e:xecutives to the local management staff. / Identificam-se, no presente estudo, os fatores críticos da estratégia empresarial para que as empresas possam ter sucesso no Brasil, especialmente as empresas do setor eletroeletrônico.Para tanto, foram analisadas cinco empresas de excelente desempenho, consideradas a partir de questões como: melhorias operacionais, estratégias da gestão do risco e delegações do poder da tomada de decisões para a equipe local, fatores estes importantes para que se estabelecesse uma comparação com as demais empresas. Ainda, as razões do mau desempenho das empresas japonesas no setor eletroeletrônico no Brasil e em geral, também foram identificadas. São elas: a falta de capacidade da gestão do risco (devido ao fato de a maioria das empresas japonesas terem se desenvolvido num ambiente onde existe baixo risco, em decorrência da interferência governamental em seu país de origem) e a ausência de delegação de poderes necessários à tomada de decisão dos executivos japoneses locais para as gerências locais.
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Decisão de investimento em empresa de pequeno porte de comércio e serviços: uma abordagem probabilística com a teoria das restrições e a teoria das opções reaisSantos Neto, João Batista dos 03 July 2012 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2012-07-03 / Many investment projects present as relevant characteristics: the uncertainty to
future earnings, the irreversibility of investment and the managerial flexibility, with
regard to the freedom with the decision making in the time. Studies show that these
characteristics are not treated by the traditional methods of planning and evaluation of
investment, and for to supplement the limitations of these methods, an alternative
that is gaining prominence is the Real Options Theory, whose application has been
studied with a focus on investments that require large amounts of capital, such as
mining, oil exploration and power generation. This alternative can also benefit
investment projects for micro and small companies, providing that are taken into
account their constraints, especially in relation to the amount of capital available. This
paper aims to propose a method for planning and evaluation of investment, with the
joint application of the Theory of Constraints - TOC - and of the Real Options Theory
- TOR - in the process of decision making for investment in small businesses the
trade sectors of products and services. The methodology consisted of an exploratory
research and development of a Single Case Study, which focused on the application
of the proposed method in financial planning before the opening of a business
focused on sales of products and services for pets. The case study validated the
hypothesis and attested the effectiveness of the proposed method, because beyond of
make possible a level of free cash flow near to the traditional methods, the proposed
method has made possible: the optimization of production capacity and financial
resources available; the identification of the lower risk option, and the maximizing of
the return on investment / incerteza quanto aos ganhos futuros, a irreversibilidade do investimento e a
flexibilidade gerencial, no que diz respeito à liberdade de decisão no tempo. Estudos
demonstram que estas características não são tratadas pelos métodos tradicionais
de planejamento e avaliação de investimento, e para suprir as limitações destes
métodos, uma alternativa que vem ganhando destaque é a Teoria de Opções Reais,
cuja aplicação vem sendo estudada com foco em investimentos que requerem
elevados montantes de capital, tais como: mineração, exploração de petróleo e
geração de energia. Esta alternativa também pode beneficiar os projetos de
investimentos de Micro e Pequenas Empresas, contanto que sejam levadas em
consideração as suas restrições, sobretudo, em relação ao montante de capital
disponível. Este trabalho tem por objetivo propor um método de planejamento e
avaliação de investimento, com a aplicação conjunta da Teoria das Restrições
TOC e da Teoria das Opções Reais TOR no processo de tomada de decisão
de investimento em empresas de pequeno porte dos setores de comércio e serviços.
A metodologia consiste numa pesquisa exploratória e no desenvolvimento de um
Estudo de Caso Único, que enfocou a aplicação do método proposto no
planejamento financeiro antes da abertura de um empreendimento voltado para a
comercialização de produtos e serviços destinados a animais de estimação. O
estudo de caso validou as hipóteses e atestou a eficácia do método proposto, pois
além de viabilizar um nível de Fluxo de Caixa Livre próximo ao dos métodos
tradicionais, o método proposto viabilizou ainda: a otimização do uso da capacidade
produtiva e dos recursos financeiros disponíveis; a identificação e a opção de menor
risco, e a maximização do retorno sobre o Investimento
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Participação popular na prevenção e enfrentamento de desastres ambientais : um estudo de caso em Araranguá/SC / Popular Participation in the Prevention and Coping Environmental disasters: a case study in Araranguá/SCPai, Carina Cargnelutti Dal 28 August 2012 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2012-08-28 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This research constitutes part of a project funded by FAPESC, which objective to promote
competence of action in preventing and tackling environmental disaster in the Vale do Itajaí,
in the municipality of Ilhota and in the south shore of Santa Catarina, municipality of
Araranguá. The main purpose of this research is to promote community participation in
disaster risk management in communities Barranca and Baixadinha/Vila São José in
Araranguá. The specific objectives proposed are identify and characterize the risk perceptions
of communities to stand the occurrence of floods and very strong winds; promote the
identification of ways of organizing communities to address and prevent environmental
disasters, specifically floods; testing methodologies of Geographic Information System -
Participatory (GIS-P) in the mapping of risk and the preventive management of environmental
disasters; encourage in promoting dialogue between Civil Defence and communities to
articulate for the construction of their Plans Risk Management Participatory (PRMP)
providing contributions to the constitution of Community Nuclei Civil Protection and Defense
(NUPDECs). The theoretical and thematic framing comprises History Socio-Spatial,
Perception Socio-Environmental, the GIS-P, Prevention and Coping With Environmental
Disaster and Popular Participation in Disaster Prevention and Coping. The research
methodology is qualitative and belong as a case study developed with the two communities,
starting from the application of interviews, meetings, workshops, development of social
mapping, use of participant observation to build data to integrate a GIS P. The achieved
results comprises the historic and environmental characterization, survey of existing data
about floods occurred historically, personal understandings about environmental disasters and
risks inherent, as well as suggestions of structural and non-structural measures for inclusion in
PRMP, making possible communities involve in a reflection of how their perceptions and
experiences can contribute to the prevention of environmental disasters and coping, while
minimizing their environmental impacts as well as making them more resilient. Adding to the
results is the discussion with the participation of communities and Civil Defense, about
actions for the constitution of NUPDECs in consonance with the actions of the local Civil
Defense, bringing together wills for implementing measures that make possible to increase its
resilience by reducing local vulnerability in coping with environmental disasters. / Esta pesquisa constitui-se parte de um projeto financiado pela FAPESC, que visa promover
competências de ação na prevenção e enfrentamento de desastres ambientais na região do
Vale do Itajaí, no município de Ilhota e no litoral Sul catarinense, município de Araranguá. A
finalidade principal desta pesquisa é promover a participação comunitária na gestão de risco
de desastres nas comunidades Barranca e Baixadinha/Vila São José, em Araranguá. Como
objetivos específicos propôs-se identificar e caracterizar as percepções de risco das
comunidades frente à ocorrência de enchentes e ventos fortes; identificar formas de
organização das comunidades no sentido de enfrentar e prevenir desastres ambientais,
especificamente as enchentes; testar metodologias de Sistema de Informação Geográfica
Participativo (SIG-P) no mapeamento de risco e no planejamento preventivo de desastres
ambientais; auxiliar na promoção do diálogo entre a Defesa Civil e as comunidades no sentido
de se articularem para a construção de seus Planos de Gestão de Risco Participativo (PGRs)
fornecendo contributos para a constituição de Núcleos Comunitários de Proteção e Defesa
Civil (NUPDECs). O enquadramento teórico-temático compreende a História Ambiental, a
Formação Sócio-Espacial, a Percepção Sócio-Ambiental, o SIG-P, a Prevenção e
Enfrentamento de Desastres Ambientais e a Participação Popular na Prevenção e
Enfrentamento de Desastres. A metodologia da pesquisa é qualitativa enquadrando-se como
estudo de caso desenvolvido com as duas comunidades, partindo desde a aplicação de
entrevistas, realização de reuniões, desenvolvimento de oficinas de cartografia social,
emprego da observação participante até construção de dados para integrar um SIG-P. Os
resultados alcançados compreendem a caracterização histórica e ambiental, levantamento de
dados existentes sobre as enchentes ocorridas historicamente, entendimentos pessoais sobre
desastres ambientais e riscos inerentes, bem como sugestão de medidas estruturais e não
estruturais para inclusão nos PGRs, possibilitando envolver as comunidades numa reflexão de
como suas percepções e experiências podem contribuir para a prevenção e enfrentamento de
desastres ambientais, minimizando seus impactos socioambientais gerados bem como
tornando-as mais resilientes. Somando-se aos resultados está a discussão com a participação
das comunidades e da Defesa Civil sobre as ações para a constituição dos NUPDECs, em
consonância com as ações da Defesa Civil local, reunindo vontades para a concretização de
medidas que possibilitem aumentar sua resiliência reduzindo a vulnerabilidade local no
enfrentamento de desastres ambientais.
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Dynamic and multi-perspective risk management of construction projects using tailor-made Risk Breakdown Structures / Gestion dynamique et multi perspectives des risques pour les projets de construction : l'apport d'une arborescence hiérarchique des risques "à la carte"Mehdizadeh, Rasool 04 June 2012 (has links)
Depuis quelques années, de nombreux travaux de recherche se sont portés sur le domaine de la gestion des risques pour les projets de construction. Les projets de construction font intervenir de nombreux acteurs dont les intérêts et les besoins doivent être pris en compte dans le système décisionnel afin d’assurer le succès du projet.Une RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure) est une représentation hiérarchisée des risques d’un projet. Elle est composée de catégories de risque qui explicitent les différents domaines pouvant être source de risque. Ce type de représentation présente de nombreux avantages, la rendant ainsi adaptée à la gestion des risques dans les projets de construction : elle offre une vision synthétique des risques, elle est compatible avec la nature dynamique et évolutive des risques et elle permet à chaque acteur du projet d’avoir sa propre vision des risques. Cependant les RBS présentent aussi des inconvénients : il n’existe pas de consensus sur la façon de les construire, la définition des catégories de risque est souvent floue et non partagée, enfin il n’y a pas de règles permettant de propager les évaluations (qualitatives ou quantitatives) dans les branches de la structure.Dans cette thèse, nous proposons une méthodologie pour le développement de RBS sur mesure, c’est à dire adaptées à l'étape et au niveau de développement du projet et permettant d'offrir un point de vue adapté aux différents acteurs. Cela permet de poser les bases d’une approche dynamique, multi-échelle, multi-perspective dans laquelle chaque acteur, peut, dans chacune des phases, se concentrer sur certains risques par une décomposition adaptée de sa RBS. Cela permet d'identifier et de gérer les risques liés au projet de construction d'une façon plus formelle, plus efficace et plus systématique.En parallèle, des efforts ont porté sur le développement d'une méthode avancée pour l'analyse et la propagation des valeurs de risque par les RBS. Le but était de développer une approche cohérente afin d’obtenir des résultats réalistes sans souffrir des faiblesses habituelles des méthodes disponibles dans la littérature. La méthode combine les approches quantitatives et qualitatives, permettant ainsi à l'utilisateur de choisir, selon l'information disponible et la précision souhaitée le choix du type d'évaluation le plus adapté.Une attention particulière a été portée quant au développement de la base de connaissances, afin d'assurer la cohérence des données. La base de connaissance est composée de trois types d’objets principaux : les événements risqués, les catégories de risque et les arbres élémentaires. Elle a été alimentée par une analyse approfondie de la littérature. Cette base de connaissances est suffisamment générale pour couvrir tous les projets de construction et suffisamment précise pour être adaptée à un projet particulier. Elle fournit un langage commun avec lequel les risques liés au projet peuvent être décrits et discutés. Le processus de construction des RBS est basé sur une logique multicritère (degré de développement, satisfaction des utilisateurs, contraste des valeurs de risque) permettant de comparer les différentes RBS entre elles. La structure de la base de connaissance est conçue de façon à faciliter sa mise à jour et ses développements ultérieurs.MOTS-CLÉS: , , construction, méthodologie, bases de données. / In recent years, intensive research and development have been done in the area of construction projects risk management. The construction projects involve numerous participants whose interests and demands need to be considered in the managerial decision-making to ensure the success of the project. Risk Breakdown Structure is a hierarchically organized depiction of the identified project risks arranged by risk categories and subcategories that identifies the various areas and causes of potential risks. This type of representation has many advantages and is a suitable tool especially for risk management of construction projects since: it offers a synthetic view on risks, each stakeholder can have his own view on the project and it is compatible with evolutionary and dynamic nature of project risks. However, RBS suffers several drawbacks such as lack of consensus on how to develop an RBS for a new project, lack of clarity and inconsistencies in definition of risk categories and lack of rules enabling transfer of qualitative/quantitative information of risks across the tree. In this PhD thesis, we propose a methodology for the development of tailor-made RBS's which are adapted to several constraints: being fitted to the stage and degree of development of the project, being able to offer different views for the different partners. This makes it possible to establish a dynamic, multi-scale and multi-perspective approach in which each partner, at each desired stage, can focus on selected specific risks and divide the RBS's up into a greater number of subcategories in specific fields. It allows to identify and manage the construction project risks in a more formal, efficient and systematic way. In parallel, efforts have been devoted to the development of an advanced method for analysis and propagation of risk values through RBS. The aim was to develop a more coherent approach in order to get more realistic results without suffering from the usual weaknesses of available methods in literature to calculate the risk value of categories in RBS. The method combines consistently the quantitative and qualitative approaches, allowing the user to choose the best one for risk assessment at any level based on the available information and required accuracy.Special care was taken in the development of the risk knowledge database in order to ensure the data's consistency. A database which has three interactive components of risk events, risk categories and micro trees, and have been developed based on a thorough analysis of literature. This knowledge base is general enough to cover all construction projects but at the same time, specific enough to be adapted to a given particular project. This database provides a common language within which the project risks can be described and discussed. The RBS rebuilding process is driven in such a way as to make it possible to compare different possible RBS's according to several criteria (degree of development, user satisfaction and highlighting the contrast of risk values). The database is constructed in such a way as to facilitate further developments and updating. / در طي سالهاي اخير، تحقيقات گستردهاي در زمينه مديريت ريسک پروژههاي ساخت و ساز و زيربنايي انجام گرفته است. غالبا اين نوع از پروژهها در برگيرنده تعداد زيادي ذينفع (مالک، پيمانکاران، طراحان فني و معماري، سرمايه¬گذار، بيمهگر و ...) ميباشند که مدنظر قرار دادن منافع، اهداف و مطالبات آن¬ها در اتخاذ تصميمها يکي از موارد لازم براي اطمينان از موفقيت پروژه ميباشد.ساختار درختي ريسک (Risk Breakdown Structure) که بازنمودي طبقه¬بندي شده از ريسکهاي پروژه ارائه مينمايد، متشکل از گروهها و زير¬گروههاي سازمان يافته ريسک بوده و ابزاري بسيار موثر در شناسايي منابع و آثار محتمل ريسکها ميباشد. اين نوع باز¬نمود ريسکها داراي مزاياي فراواني ميباشد به خصوص در مديريت ريسک پروژههاي عمراني و زيربنايي. بخشي از دلايل اين مدعا عبارتند از: توانايي RBS در تجزيه وتحليل ريسکهاي پروژه و اينکه با استفاده از RBS هريک از اعضاي ذينفع پروژه ميتواند ديدگاه خاص خود را نسبت به ريسکهاي پروژه داشته باشد که اين قضيه با ماهيت ديناميک و تکاملي پروژهها به خوبي سازگار ميباشد. با اين¬حال، عليرغم قابليتهاي فوق العاده اين ابزار، RBS داراي چندين ضعف اساسي ميباشد از قبيل: عدم وجود راهنما، روش و اجماع در چگونگي طراحي RBS جديد براي يک پروژه جديد با ويژه¬گيهاي خاص خود، وجود تعاريف مبهم و بعضا متناقض ريسکها و گروههاي ريسک در RBSهاي موجود، عدم وجود روشي مشترک و موثر براي انتقال اطلاعات کمي و کيفي وقايع ريسک بر روي ساختار درختي RBS به منظور محاسبه مقادير ريسک هر گروه ريسک.در اين رساله دکتري، روشي نوين براي طراحي RBSهاي سازگار براي هر پروژه يا شرايط خاص ارائه ميگردد. اين RBSها با مقطع زماني و ميزان پيشرفت پروژه و همچنين ديدگاههاي متفاوت ذينفعان پروژه نسبت به ريسکها سازگار ميباشند. اين روش متضمن اعمال مديريت ريسک پويا و ديناميک، چند مقياسي و چند بعدي در پروژهها بوده و هر يک از اعضاي پروژه در هر مقطع زمانی خاص قادر خواهد بود بر ريسکهاي مورد نظر خود تمرکز نموده و براي کسب اطلاعات جامعتر، هر گروه ريسک در RBS را به تعداد بيشتري زير گروه تجزيه نمايد. چنين رويهاي ابزار و روش لازم براي شناسايي و مديريت سيستماتيک، موثرتر و رسميتر ريسکهاي پروژه را فراهم مينمايد.همزمان با توسعه روش مذکور براي طراحي RBSهاي سفارشي براي هر مورد خاص، تلاش ويژه¬اي براي ابداع روشي نوين به منظور کسب نتايج واقع¬بينانه¬تر در آناليز و توزيع مقادير ريسک بر روي شاخه¬هاي RBS اعمال گرديد. روش پيشنهادي، ترکيبي سازگار از رويکرد¬هاي کمي و کيفي ارائه نموده و کاربر قادر خواهد بود بر اساس ميزان اطلاعات موجود و دقت مورد نياز بهترين گزينه را انتخاب نمايد.براي اطمينان از سازگاري اطلاعات مورد استفاده در روش¬هاي فوق الذکر و ايجاد ادبياتي مشترک واستاندارد براي توصيف و بحث پيرامون ريسک¬هاي پروژه، دقت خاصي در توسعه ديتا¬بيس (بانک اطلاعات) ريسک اتخاذ گرديد. اين پايگاه¬داده که بر اساس مطالعه و تجزيه و تحليل دقيق متون موجود، استاندارها و گزارشات فني پيرامون مديريت ريسک پروژه¬هاي عمراني تهيه گرديده است متشکل از سه بخش اساسي پويا و توسعه پذير مي¬باشد: وقايع ريسک، گروه¬هاي ريسک و ميکرو درخت¬ها. در عين جامعيت اين ديتا¬بيس براي تحت پوشش قرار دادن انواع پروژه¬هاي عمراني، ساختار اطلاعات به گونه¬اي طراحي گرديده که توسعه آن براي تمرکز بر نوع خاصي از پروژه (تونل، سازه¬هاي موقت، ...) امکان¬پذير مي¬باشد.فرايند طراحي RBSهاي سفارشي با بازسازي تمامي RBSهاي ممکن از طريق ترکيب ميکرو درخت¬هاي موجود در ديتا¬بيس آغاز گرديده و سپس براي انتخاب بهترين درخت ريسک، تمامي گزينه¬هاي ممکن به واسطه معيار¬هاي کيفيت تعريف شده RBS (ميزان توسعه ساختار درخت ريسک، تناسب ساختار RBS با مطالبات و اهداف کاربر و کنتراست مقادير ريسک بر روي شاخه¬هاي RBS) مقايسه مي¬گردند.براي تسهيل کاربرد عملي روش¬هاي ارئه شده در پروژه¬هاي واقعي، نرم افزار خاصي بر اساس تمامي مفاهيم و الگوريتم¬هاي موجود در روش-هاي توسعه داده شده تهيه گرديده است. اين نرم افزار با واسط کاربر پسند، ابتدا تمامي RBSهاي ممکن را توليد نموده، مقادير ريسک گروه¬هاي ريسک را محاسبه کرده و به طور اتوماتيک براي هر RBS پنج فاکتور کيفيت محاسبه مي¬نمايد. در گام دوم، تمامي RBSهاي ايجاد شده با استفاده از يکي از روش¬هاي تصميم¬گيري چند¬معياري رتبه¬بندي شده، کاربر قادر خواهد بود بهترين RBS را انتخاب نمايد. نرم افزار قادر است به طور گرافيکي ساختار درختي تمامي RBSهاي طراحي شده را به همراه مقادير ريسک محاسبه شده و توزيع وقايع ريسک بر روي شاخه¬هاي RBS نمايش دهد.
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