Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:58:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 1_166941.pdf: 628877 bytes, checksum: 4e1d8dcc307e599d6a4e600bb34283ae (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-07-04T00:00:00Z / The present work has as main objective to test the existence of the phenomenon known in the economic theory as J-curve being caracterized for the short run trade balance worsening after the real exchange rate depreciation episode. Given the difficulty in the definition of depreciation events of real exchange rate, despite the empirical tests are effected throughout the period of 1980 the 2005, three specific periods in the descriptive analysis will be used where the intense positive variation of the real exchange supplied the ideal scene so that the identification of behavior of possible transitory deterioration of the commercial balances was easily visualized. On the basis of 3 (three) different boardings of econometrical tests, the empirical evidence suggests that the phenomenon of J-curve does not explain the behavior of the trade balance after the occurrence of this episodes. / O presente trabalho tem como principal objetivo testar a existência do fenômeno comumente descrito na teoria econômica como curva J que se caracteriza pela piora dos saldos comerciais no curto prazo após um episódio de depreciação real do câmbio. Dada a dificuldade na definição de eventos de depreciação/desvalorização do câmbio, ainda que os testes empíricos sejam efetuados ao longo do período de 1980 a 2005, serão utilizados três períodos específicos na análise descritiva em que a intensa variação positiva do câmbio real forneceu o cenário ideal para que a identificação do comportamento de uma possível deterioração transitória dos saldos comerciais fosse mais facilmente visualizado. Com base em 3(três) abordagens diferentes de testes econométricos, a evidência empírica sugere que o fenômeno da curva J não explica o comportamento da balança comercial após a ocorrência de tais episódios.

O objetivo desta dissertação será analisar a dinâmica do processo de integração financeira entre o mercado acionário brasileiro e o norte americano. Buscaremos identificar a relação de interdependência entre os dois mercados acionários ao longo do tempo por meio de testes de cointegração, e de causalidade de Granger com rolling windows, e através de um modelo de correção de erros estimado por meio do filtro de Kalman. Por fim, verificaremos se as séries temporais obtidas nos procedimentos iterativos possuem relação com a volatilidade ou quantidade de negócios dos contratos analisados. Evidenciamos nesta dissertação que a relação de integração financeira observada apresenta caráter variável ao longo do tempo. Isso vale tanto para a relação de cointegração, quanto para a relação de causalidade de Granger entre as séries temporais observadas. Evidenciamos também que a volatilidade das séries apresenta uma relação positiva e significativa com a relação de cointegração observada através dos testes de cointegração por meio de rolling windows. / The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the dynamics of financial integration between the Brazilian and the North American stock market. We will seek to identify the interdependence relationship between the two stock markets over time using rolling cointegration tests, rolling Granger causality tests, and estimating an error correction model using Kalman filter. Finally, we look if the time series obtained in the iterative procedures are related to volatility or quantity of trades from the contracts. We show in this dissertation that the financial integration relationship observed has a time varying character over time. This goes for both the cointegration relationship, and for the Granger causality relationship between the observed time series. We show also that the volatility of the time series has a positive and significant relationship with the cointegration relationship observed through the rolling cointegration tests.

Food inflation in South Africa has been viewed as an important source of underlying inflationary pressures in the economy due to its persistence beyond that of other commodities. Although several studies found food to be one of the factors that influence purchase decisions, there still appears to be an absence of research that directly links food inflation to consumers’ decisions, especially when financing the purchase of new passenger vehicles in South Africa. In this regard, this study investigated whether the increase in the prices of food products has a significant effect on passenger vehicle purchases in South Africa. Leaning on the literature that argues that economic factors do not play much of a role in passenger vehicle purchase decisions in South Africa, it was hypothesised that there is no supported relationship between food inflation and passenger vehicle purchases in South Africa. Using secondary time series data, the Pearson correlation test revealed a negative but insignificant relationship between food inflation and vehicle purchases in South Africa. The ordinary least squares estimate of the purchase function, taking into account several economic factors that influence passenger vehicle purchase decisions in the literature, showed that disposable income of households along with vehicle purchases of the previous period are to be considered as main determinants of vehicle purchases in South Africa. In addition, it was also revealed that new vehicle prices are also a significant determinant of vehicle purchases. The Johansen cointegration test revealed that the variables in the vehicle purchase function were cointegrated in the long run. The vector error correction model showed a long-run relationship, albeit insignificant, between food inflation and vehicle purchases and no relationship between the two variables in the short run. The Granger causality test revealed that food inflation and vehicle purchases are independent from each other, meaning that no causal effect was found between the variables, regardless of the direction of the test. This study concluded that economic factors such as interest rate and fuel price have an insignificant influence on passenger vehicle purchases in South Africa. In the same line, the impact of food inflation on passenger vehicle purchases in South Africa was found to be insignificant, therefore, the conclusion was drawn that the increase in the prices of food products will not play a considerable role in consumers’ decisions regarding passenger vehicle purchase in South Africa. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

Market integration is a frequently discussed topic. This study presents an econometric analysis of the interlinkages between the Swedish, Norwegian, and Finnish coniferous roundwood assortment markets by conducting the Johansen’s co-integration test. It also investigates the directional causality between markets concluded integrated. The data utilised consists of quarterly, nominal prices for pine, and spruce saw logs and pulpwood for each country. Because of issues regarding stationary price series, the co-integration test could only be tested on five markets; Swedish and Norwegian pine saw logs and Swedish, Norwegian and Finnish spruce pulpwood. Swedish and Norwegian pine saw log prices were found integrated according to the Johansen’s test, but no relationship was found when performing the Granger causality test, implying that the underlying assumption of non-stationary prices may not have been fulfilled. No linkages were found concerning the spruce pulpwood markets; neither for all three countries nor bi-variate.

Uppsatsen analyserar tre karaktärer i J.K Rowlings bok Harry Potter och fången från Azkaban (2017) ur ett genusperspektiv och vänskapsperspektiv. Syftet med analysen är att se hur karaktärerna beskrivs utifrån könsroller och vad vänskapsrelationen har för betydelse för de tre karaktärerna och hur det kan kopplas till genus. Uppsatsen utgår från olika perspektiv kring genus och vänskap, bland annat Maria Nilsons (2010) tankar kring genus i barnlitteratur och William M. Bukowski (2001) som skriver om fyra olika vänskapsfunktioner. Analysen visar att alla tre karaktärerna har både manliga och kvinnliga egenskaper och därmed bryter mot traditionella könsroller till viss del. De tre karaktärernas egenskaper påverkar vänskapen på flera sätt då karaktärerna kompletterar varandra.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-10-02T23:37:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TiagoFernandesDeMiranda_DISSERT.pdf: 5053204 bytes, checksum: 5fe48dfee7a0927d59bdae03b0ab719f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-10-09T20:43:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TiagoFernandesDeMiranda_DISSERT.pdf: 5053204 bytes, checksum: 5fe48dfee7a0927d59bdae03b0ab719f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-09T20:43:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TiagoFernandesDeMiranda_DISSERT.pdf: 5053204 bytes, checksum: 5fe48dfee7a0927d59bdae03b0ab719f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-03 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient?fico e Tecnol?gico (CNPq) / Alarmes industriais tem natureza inerentemente ass?ncrona e s?o fundamentais para a manuten??o da seguran?a operacional e sa?de de processos industriais complexos. Entretanto, sistemas de alarmes industriais mal configurados tendem a gerar quantidades excessivas de alarmes, o que os tornam ineficientes. Dentre os poss?veis agentes degradantes de um sistema de alarmes, est?o os alarmes causais. Situa??es de alarmes causais ocorrem quando a ativa??o de um determinado alarme implica na ativa??o de um ou mais alarmes decorrentes, gerando informa??o redundante no sistema de alarmes. Diante da relev?ncia do problema, nesta disserta??o s?o analisados os desempenhos de duas t?cnicas para determina??o de alarmes causais: correla??o cruzada e teste de causalidade de Granger. Como dados de alarmes industriais s?o essencialmente de natureza discreta, antes de se aplicar ambas as t?cnicas, houve a necessidade de se realizar um pr?-processamento sobre os dados de alarmes, atrav?s de uma t?cnica de suaviza??o de sinais. Para obten??o dos resultados, foram utilizados dados de alarmes provenientes de cen?rios de simula??o de gera??o de alarmes e do Benchmark Tennessee Eastman Process. Os resultados obtidos indicam que, em aspectos gerais, o teste de causalidade de Granger obteve maior efici?ncia que a correla??o cruzada na tarefa de indica??o de rela??es causais em alarmes industriais. Tamb?m foram realizados estudos comparativos da aplica??o do teste de causalidade de Granger sobre vari?veis de processo e alarmes no Benchmark Tennessee Eastman Process, indicando suas caracter?sticas. / Industrial alarms are inherently asynchronous in nature and are critical to maintaining the operational safety and health of complex industrial processes. However, poorly configured industrial alarm systems tend to generate excessive amounts of alarms, making them inefficient. Among the possible degrading agents of an alarm system are the causal alarms. Causal alarm situations occur when the activation of a given alarm implies the activation of one or more of the resulting alarms, generating redundant information in the alarm system. Given the relevance of the problem, this dissertation analyzes the performance of two techniques for determining causal alarms: Cross-correlation and Granger causality test. The industrial alarm data is essentially of a discrete nature, before performing both techniques, there was a need to perform a preprocessing on the alarm data, through the signal smoothing technique. To obtain the results, we used alarm data from the alarm generation simulation scenarios and the Tennessee Eastman Process Benchmark. Therefore, the results indicate that, in general aspects, the Granger causality test performed a greater efficiency than the cross-correlation in the task of indicating causal relations between industrial alarms. We also performed comparative studies of the application of the Granger causality test on process variables and alarms in the Tennessee Eastman Process Benchmark, indicating their characteristics.

O objetivo desta dissertação será analisar a dinâmica do processo de integração financeira entre o mercado acionário brasileiro e o norte americano. Buscaremos identificar a relação de interdependência entre os dois mercados acionários ao longo do tempo por meio de testes de cointegração, e de causalidade de Granger com rolling windows, e através de um modelo de correção de erros estimado por meio do filtro de Kalman. Por fim, verificaremos se as séries temporais obtidas nos procedimentos iterativos possuem relação com a volatilidade ou quantidade de negócios dos contratos analisados. Evidenciamos nesta dissertação que a relação de integração financeira observada apresenta caráter variável ao longo do tempo. Isso vale tanto para a relação de cointegração, quanto para a relação de causalidade de Granger entre as séries temporais observadas. Evidenciamos também que a volatilidade das séries apresenta uma relação positiva e significativa com a relação de cointegração observada através dos testes de cointegração por meio de rolling windows. / The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the dynamics of financial integration between the Brazilian and the North American stock market. We will seek to identify the interdependence relationship between the two stock markets over time using rolling cointegration tests, rolling Granger causality tests, and estimating an error correction model using Kalman filter. Finally, we look if the time series obtained in the iterative procedures are related to volatility or quantity of trades from the contracts. We show in this dissertation that the financial integration relationship observed has a time varying character over time. This goes for both the cointegration relationship, and for the Granger causality relationship between the observed time series. We show also that the volatility of the time series has a positive and significant relationship with the cointegration relationship observed through the rolling cointegration tests.

O objetivo desta dissertação será analisar a dinâmica do processo de integração financeira entre o mercado acionário brasileiro e o norte americano. Buscaremos identificar a relação de interdependência entre os dois mercados acionários ao longo do tempo por meio de testes de cointegração, e de causalidade de Granger com rolling windows, e através de um modelo de correção de erros estimado por meio do filtro de Kalman. Por fim, verificaremos se as séries temporais obtidas nos procedimentos iterativos possuem relação com a volatilidade ou quantidade de negócios dos contratos analisados. Evidenciamos nesta dissertação que a relação de integração financeira observada apresenta caráter variável ao longo do tempo. Isso vale tanto para a relação de cointegração, quanto para a relação de causalidade de Granger entre as séries temporais observadas. Evidenciamos também que a volatilidade das séries apresenta uma relação positiva e significativa com a relação de cointegração observada através dos testes de cointegração por meio de rolling windows. / The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the dynamics of financial integration between the Brazilian and the North American stock market. We will seek to identify the interdependence relationship between the two stock markets over time using rolling cointegration tests, rolling Granger causality tests, and estimating an error correction model using Kalman filter. Finally, we look if the time series obtained in the iterative procedures are related to volatility or quantity of trades from the contracts. We show in this dissertation that the financial integration relationship observed has a time varying character over time. This goes for both the cointegration relationship, and for the Granger causality relationship between the observed time series. We show also that the volatility of the time series has a positive and significant relationship with the cointegration relationship observed through the rolling cointegration tests.

The thesis deals with the analysis of the oil market with emphasis on the period from 2010 to May 2017. The aim of the thesis is to test the sensitivity of the oil price to the selected fundamental indicators and trading positions of the traders according to CFTC data. The work, in addition to the theoretical introduction, contains information on key fundamentals such as US oil production, the process of publishing reports on the state of oil stocks in the US, and the process of publishing reports on oil market traders' positions and subsequent data analysis. It confirmed that the price of oil correlates significantly with traders' positions, but the Granger test suggested that the change in the price of oil is causally affecting the position of traders and not vice versa.

Economic growth is the single most important factor in the economic success of nations. Growth can be robust in trying circumstances over the short term, but usually requires the basic tenets of peace, safety and security, the rule of law, price and exchange rate stability and a market friendly ambience to be sustainable over decades. Achieving this is a formidable task, but does not guarantee success, because other factors, such as pessimism or uncertainty in the business community, rumours and corruption, can impede progress. Government policy plays a vital role in economic growth, but measures of it are scarce and problematic. Similarly, economic data focus on outcomes, rather than on causes, for example, numbers employed rather than labour market policies. Growth analysts generally use indirect measures to analyse growth causes and effects. There are more of these, but many are also volatile over the long term. Economists devised empirical tools to compensate for these obstacles, and such tools were used in this study to investigate South Africa’s growth record, in order to determine what worked and what did not. This study shows that measures of openness of the economy to trade are indicative of growth. A robust and export-oriented manufacturing sector contributes to growth and perpetuates itself. This implies that barriers to trade, such as tariffs and quotas must be minimised and manufactured exports promoted, rather than primary products such as iron ore and coal. Nonproductive government spending reduces the growth rate and should be minimised, and the largest expenditures should be on safety and security (because crime incidence reduces growth), housing for the poor, and education, while most other services such as electricity, transport and communication should be privatised. While investment is important, its link to growth is bi-directional. However, productivity is a significant contributor to growth. Unused capacity of human resources and machines is productivity’s main detractor. Policies to enhance rival competition in the private sector, with full utilisation of capacity, increase productivity growth and can have sizeable spin-offs for economic growth and living standards. / Thesis (DCom(Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2005. / Economics / unrestricted