Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study the causal relationship between bank sector development and economic growth in four Nordic countries (Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway). Method: Our thesis is based on a quantitative method. The study consists of a compilation and analysis of key financial indicators that represent economic growth and bank sector development. A Granger causality test has been conducted on the time series in order to measure the causal link between economic growth and bank sector development. Theoretical framework: The study is based on the theory of endogenous growth and the causal relationship between bank sector development and economic growth also known as the demand following and supply leading hypothesis.  Results: The results of the four countries are ambiguous. Except for Denmark, that follows the supply leading hypothesis, the remaining countries do not show a unanimous result.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has emerged as the method of choice to non-invasively investigate brain function in humans. Though brain is known to act as a nonlinear system, here has not been much effort to explore the applicability of nonlinear analysis techniques to fMRI data. Also, recent trends have suggested that functional localization as a model of brain function is incomplete and efforts are being made to develop models based on networks of regions to understand brain function. Therefore this thesis attempts to introduce the twin concepts of nonlinear dynamics and network analysis into a broad spectrum of fMRI data analysis techniques. First, we characterized the nonlinear univariate dynamics of fMRI noise using the concept of embedding to explain the origin of tissue-specific differences of baseline activity in the brain. The embedding concept was extended to the multivariate case to study nonlinear functional connectivity in the distributed motor network during resting state and continuous motor task. The results showed that the nonlinear method may be more sensitive to the desired gray matter signal. Subsequently, the scope of connectivity was extended to include directional interactions using Granger causality. An integrated approach was developed to alleviate the confounding effect of the spatial variability of the hemodynamic response and graph theory was employed to characterize the network topology. This methodology proved effective in characterizing the dynamics of cortical networks during motor fatigue. The nonlinear extension of Granger causality showed that it was more robust in the presence of confounds such as baseline drifts. Finally, we utilized the integration of the spatial correlation function to study connectivity in local brain networks. We showed that our method is robust and can reveal interesting information including the default mode network during resting state. Application of this technique to anesthesia data showed dose dependent suppression of local connectivity in the default mode network, particularly in the frontal areas. Given the body of evidence emerging from our studies, nonlinear and network characterization of fMRI data seems to provide novel insights into brain function.

We study two methods of data analysis which are common tools for the analysis of neuronal data. In particular, we examine how causal interactions between brain regions can be investigated using time series reflecting the neural activity in these regions. Furthermore, we analyze a method used to study the neural code that evaluates the discrimination of the responses of single neurons elicited by different stimuli. This discrimination analysis is based on the quantification of the similarity of the spike trains with time scale parametric spike train distances. In each case we describe the methods used for the analysis of the neuronal data and we characterize their specificity using simulated or exemplary experimental data. Taking into account our results, we comment the previous studies in which the methods have been applied. In particular, we focus on the interpretation of the statistical measures in terms of underlying neuronal causal connectivity and properties of the neural code, respectively. / Estudiem dos mètodes d'anàlisi de dades que són eines habituals per a l'anàlisi de dades neuronals. Concretament, examinem la manera en què les interaccions causals entre regions del cervell poden ser investigades a partir de sèries temporals que reflecteixen l'activitat neuronal d'aquestes regions. A més a més, analitzem un mètode emprat per estudiar el codi neuronal que avalua la discriminació de les respostes de neurones individuals provocades per diferents estímuls. Aquesta anàlisi de la discriminació es basa en la quantificació de la similitud de les seqüències de potencials d'acció amb distàncies amb un paràmetre d'escala temporal. Tenint en compte els nostres resultats, comentem els estudis previs en els quals aquests mètodes han estat aplicats. Concretament, ens centrem en la interpretació de les mesures estadístiques en termes de connectivitat causal neuronal subjacent i propietats del codi neuronal, respectivament.

The income and life expectancy increase and also, poverty and mortality rate reduction, indicate an improvement of social welfare. Therefore, to understand the relation between income and health is considered to be of fundamental importance. In the theoretical literature, such as, Sala-i-Martin (2005), Weil (2005) and Chen (2008), the causality relationship between income and health is presented as bidirectional. This dissertation has as main objective to analyze causality relationship between income and health, seeking to control the potential differences of this relation over the Brazilian territory. In this case, three Granger causality tests to panel data, proposed respectively by Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen (1988), Granger and Huang (1997), and Hurlin and Venet (2004) and Hurlin (2004, 2005), are applied to a Brazilian States database in the period from 1981-2007. The first two approaches are applied to a database with the counties in Brazil in the period of 1970-2000. To the Brazilian states, the results of Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen (1988) method shows bidirectional causality for complete sample (Brazil), for the group of states with the highest incomes (South-Central) and for the group of states with lower income (North – Northeast). The results of Granger and Huang (1997) test shows unilateral causality from income to health for Brazil, unilateral causality from income to health for the south-central States and non-causality relationship between income and health for the North-Northeast state´s group. Yet, the proposed test by Hurlin and Venet (2004), and Hurlin (2004, 2005) the evidences are clearer for the causality, in a way from health to income for the three cases examined. In general, either the full sample or the division by regions and income groups, the results of the two tests applied to the database with the counties in Brazil, show evidence of a bi-causal relationship between income and health. However, the results presented here are not all consensual. / Aumentos na renda e na expectativa de vida, e de forma similar reduções na pobreza e na taxa de mortalidade, indicam melhorias do bem estar social. Assim, entender a relação existente entre renda e saúde tem fundamental importância. Na literatura teórica, por exemplo, em Sala-i-Martin (2005), Weil (2005) e Chen (2008), a causalidade entre renda e saúde é apresentada como bidirecional. Este trabalho tem o objetivo principal de analisar a relação de causalidade entre renda e saúde, buscando controlar as potenciais diferenças dessa relação ao longo do território brasileiro. Para tanto, três testes de causalidade de Granger para dados em painel, propostos respectivamente por Holtz-Eakin, Newey e Rosen (1988), Granger e Huang (1997), e Hurlin e Venet (2004) e Hurlin (2004, 2005), são aplicados para uma base de dados com os estados brasileiros no período de 1981-2007. E as duas primeiras abordagens são aplicadas para uma base de dados com os municípios brasileiros no período de 1970-2000. Para os estados do Brasil, os resultados do teste de Holtz-Eakin, Newey e Rosen (1988) aponta causalidade bidirecional: para o Brasil, para o grupo de estados de renda mais alta (Centro-Sul) e para o grupo de estados de renda mais baixa (Norte-Nordeste). O teste de Granger e Huang (1997) mostra causalidade unidirecional da renda sobre a saúde para o Brasil, causalidade unidirecional da saúde sobre a renda nos estados do Centro-Sul e não causalidade para o grupo de estados Norte-Nordeste. Já no teste proposto por Hurlin e Venet (2004) e Hurlin (2004, 2005) as evidências são mais claras para causalidade no sentido da saúde sobre a renda para os três casos analisados. Em geral, tanto na amostra completa como na divisão por regiões e por faixas de renda, os resultados dos dois testes aplicados para base de dados com os municípios do Brasil mostram evidências de uma relação bi-causal entre renda e saúde. Portanto, os resultados apresentados neste trabalho não são todos consensuais.

Submitted by Tommaso Momoli (tommaso.momoli@gmail.com) on 2017-03-29T04:51:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tommaso.Momoli Thesis FGV.pdf: 2459609 bytes, checksum: 56072be31042eb761414eba91a983961 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Josineide da Silva Santos Locatelli (josineide.locatelli@fgv.br) on 2017-03-29T11:04:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tommaso.Momoli Thesis FGV.pdf: 2459609 bytes, checksum: 56072be31042eb761414eba91a983961 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-29T12:16:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tommaso.Momoli Thesis FGV.pdf: 2459609 bytes, checksum: 56072be31042eb761414eba91a983961 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-01-25 / This is a study regarding the impact of the index investments in the Commodity Future Market. The models applied, focus on the Causal Analysis and the Impulse Response Function through an orthogonalisation of the Vector of Auto Regression (SVAR), this allow to extract lead/lag correlation between the Index and First nearby Return for different Futures Sectors and in addition response to shocks in different equation. The study is divided in three different period, to reflect before and after the Financialization and then after the introduction in the market of the new generation of commodity Indexes. The results show a different behaviors of the parameters throughout time with a particular emphasis for the most traded Commodities to lead the others. / Trata-se de um estudo sobre o impacto dos investimentos em índices no mercado futuro de commodities. Os modelos aplicados, enfocam a Análise Causal e a Função de Resposta ao Impulso através de uma ortogonalização do Vetor de Auto Regressão (SVAR), permitindo extrair a correlação lead / lag entre o Índice e o Primeiro Retorno próximo para diferentes Setores Futuros e, A choques em diferentes equações. O estudo é dividido em três períodos diferentes, para refletir antes e depois da Financialização e, em seguida, após a introdução no mercado da nova geração de índices de commodities. Os resultados mostram um comportamento diferente dos parâmetros ao longo do tempo com uma ênfase particular para os Commodities mais negociados para liderar os outros.

This dissertation explored the efficacy of the new Basel III banking standards in SACU, grounded on the conjecture that they are not reflective of economies of SACU, but are merely an intensification of Basel II, rather than a substantial break with it. Firstly, loans and assets were tested for causality, since Basel III believes growth in these variables led to securitization. The leverage ratio has been introduced in Basel III as an anti-cyclical buffer. The OLS technique was employed to test for its significance in determining growth in bank assets. SACU feels the impact of debt, with credit is marginally treated in Basel III and is not introspective of the realities of its economies. ANOVA tests using debt, credit and GDP were done to determine a better method of addressing cyclicality. The leverage ratio was insignificant in Namibia, with debt and credit having momentous impacts on GDP in SACU. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Several scholars have highlighted that energy consumption in general and consumption of renewable energy in particular may be a potential driver of economic growth. In this paper we examine the relationship between renewable energy production and economic activity in Canada, between May 1966 to December 2015, and in the U.S., between January 1973 to December 2015. By applying quantile causality, we take a nonlinear approach considering all quantiles of the distribution, analysing monthly data containing renewable energy production and Industrial Production Index. We find evidence of a nonlinear relationship in both Canada and the U.S., indicating that widely used linear models fail to describe important aspects of the renewable energy-economic growth nexus. The main Canadian results imply a unidirectional relationship from Industrial Production Index to renewable production in most quantiles of the distribution which supports the Conservation hypothesis. However, we also find weak evidence of a bi-directional relationship, which supports the Feedback hypothesis, for the lower and higher quantiles. This may indicate the renewable energy drives economic growth for some market conditions in Canada. For the U.S. we find evidence of a weak and negative feedback relationship between renewable energy and industrial production, indicating an inefficient production of renewable energy which not is well integrated in the overall energy system. Based on theory concerning the potential benefits of renewable energy, the minor role of renewable energy production in Canada and the U.S. could be a result of institutional barriers and absence of supporting infrastructure. Both countries need policies directed to overcome these barriers in order to benefit from the potential of renewable energy. / Tidigare studier har indikerat att energi generellt främjar ekonomisk tillväxt, förnybar energi i synnerhet. I den här uppsatsen undersöker vi sambandet mellan förnybar energi och ekonomisk aktivitet mellan maj 1966 till december 2015 i Kanada, och mellan januari 1973 till december 2015 i USA. Vi använder oss av månadsdata för produktionen av förnybar energi och industriell produktion. Genom att tillämpa Granger kausalitet i kvantiler kunde vi identifiera ickelinjära samband och analysera sambanden över hela distributionen. Våra resultat indikerar att sambandet mellan förnybar energi och industriell produktion förändras vid olika marknadslägen i båda länderna. Detta innebär att de linjära modeller som normalt använts i liknande studier missar viktiga aspekter av dessa samband. Våra modeller för Kanada implicerar i huvudsak att förändringar i industriell produktion leder förändringar i produktionen av förnybar energi, men vi fann även att förändringar i produktionen av förnybar energi påverkar industriell produktion i vissa kvantiler. Våra modeller för USA visar på ett svagt och negativt samband mellan förnybar energi och industriell produktion vilket kan tyda på att produktionen av förnybar energi i USA är ineffektiv och dåligt integrerad i det övergripande energisystemet. Utifrån att produktionen av förnybar energi har många teoretiska fördelar skulle dess begränsade roll i Kanada och USA kunna bero på institutionella barriärer och avsaknad av välanpassad infrastruktur. Om förnybar energi ska bli en drivande faktor för ekonomisk tillväxt i de studerade länderna krävs därför policys som stödjer en sådan utveckling.

Magister Commercii - MCom / The objective of this study is to investigate the empirical relationship between exports and economic growth in order to ascertain whether the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid in the case of South Africa. This study has not only focused on sectoral exports for the period 1990-2011; but it has also examined total exports for the period extending from 1970 to 2011. Using quarterly data and time series econometric techniques of co-integration and Granger-causality tests over the two set of periods, the key findings of the study are as follows: (i) At the aggregate level (using total exports): the technique of co-integration suggests that total exports and GDP moved together in the long-run, though deviations from the steady state might happen in the short-run. Furthermore, Granger causality tests inferred from the Vector Error Correction model reveal that the direction of causality between export and GDP growth is bidirectional. (ii) At the sectoral level (using the main component of exports): export-growth link emerges as a long-run behavioural relationship since a co-integrating relation was found among output and agricultural, manufactured and mining exports. This relationship demonstrates that manufactured exports have the greatest positive impact on output growth. (iii) Sectoral level Granger-causality tests based on ECM reveal the existence of a long run causality running from manufactured exports to GDP; whereas the short-run causality runs from manufactured and mining exports to GDP. However, the Toda-Yamamoto Granger test confirms only short-run causality from manufactured exports to GDP. In both cases, there is evidence of a uni-directional causality from exports to GDP.The above results show that the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid for South Africa. This implies that exports, particularly manufactured and mining exports play a key role in driving economic growth. Hence, the key policy implication of these results is that, measures which aim at stimulating production for exports and shifting the content of exports will meaningfully contribute to the improvement of GDP growth and employment prospects in South Africa.

No description available.

One of the goals of the economic, social and territorial cohesion is to reduce regional disparities between member states of the European Union. For this purpose the structural funds and the Cohesion Fund were established(among other things). The theoretical part of this thesis presents the issue of regional disparities and ways how to measure them. In view of the lack of consistent definition of this concept, there are number of measurement and evaluation methods. Furthermore, the work focuses on the implementation of cohesion policy and ways of measurement of their impact on development and growth of regions. The practical part of this thesis presents, evaluates and compares the regional disparities between the regions of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic via selected methods and assesses the impact of the financial support provided from the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund in the programming period 2007 - 2013 on economic growth of regions in the Czech and Slovak Republics. Following indicators are included: gross domestic product, unemployment rate, gross fixed capital formation and the rate of economic activity. The influence of the subsidy on the economic growth of regions is validated through the panel data analysis, namely a panel model with fixed effects, and Granger causality test. First, we investigated the impact of this support on the economic performance of regions where it is verified whether there is a relationship between economic performance of NUTS III regions in the Czech and Slovak Republics, characterized by gross domestic product and the unemployment rate, and the amount of the subsidy. Furthermore, it is verified whether the amount of subsidy depends on the level of regional gross domestic product. Dissertation contributes to the discussion about the impact of support from EU funds in the Czech and Slovak Republics, focusing on the regional level, and answers the question of reducing regional disparities using the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund.