[pt] Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar uma das formas de financiamento da República Federativa do Brasil: a venda de títulos da dívida pública. Para isso serão analisadas diversas informações oficiais dos órgãos competentes, relacionadas às regras que permeiam este tipo de negociação. Além disso, serão explorados trabalhos correlatos e suas principais contribuições. Por fim, o texto busca mostrar qual formato de leilão é, teoricamente, a mais vantajosa para o Tesouro Nacional negociar seus títulos de dívida. / [en] This work aims to analyze one of the forms of financing the Federative Republic of Brazil: the sale of government bonds. For this, varied information from official agencies related to the rules that govern this type of negotiation will be analyzed. In addition, related works and their main contributions will be explored. Finally, the text seeks to show which auction format is, theoretically, the most advantageous for the National Treasury to negotiate its debt securities.

Lietuvoje, kaip ir daugelyje kitų Europos šalių, kuriose vyksta dinamiški ekonomikos pertvarkymo procesai, nuolat susiduriama su lėšų šiems procesams finansuoti trūkumu. Dėl objektyvių priežasčių, kai yra riboti finansavimo šaltinių ištekliai šių valstybių viduje, labai svarbią įtaką, stiprinant jų finansines sistemas, aprūpinant jas būtinomis lėšomis, turi valstybės skolinimasis užsienyje. Valstybės skolos valdymo politika neatskiriama šalies ekonomikos dalis. Kalbant apie valstybės skolą, automatiškai susiduriama su biudžeto deficitu. Susidariusį biudžeto deficitą valstybė būna priversta finansuoti skolintomis lėšomis. Visoms pereinamosios ekonomikos šalims modernizuojant ūkį, reikia didelių investicijų. Nacionalinių santaupų santykis su BVP tokiu laikotarpiu yra nedidelis, taigi valstybė neturi pakankamai savų lėšų investicijoms. Todėl tokios valstybės, tarp jų ir Lietuva, turi skolintis, ir tai yra normalus reiškinys. Valstybė kreditiniuose santykiuose dalyvauja kaip jų subjektas. Paprastai valstybė skolinasi ir garantuoja didesnėmis sumomis, negu skolina. Svarbiausia tokios padėties priežastis – per valstybinį kreditą pritrauktos lėšos pakeičia mokesčius ir kitais būdais surinktas lėšas. Tai ir yra pagrindinė susidariusios valstybės skolos priežastis. Vietiniai finansavimo šaltiniai yra tinkamiausi valstybės finansavimo šaltiniai, ypač jeigu tie šaltiniai denominuoti nacionaline valiuta. Valstybės vidaus skola yra labai svarbus rodiklis, rodantis valstybės ekonominį... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / In Lithuania, like in other European countries where dynamic processes of economy reorganization are proceeding, there is a constant impact with lack of funds to finance these processes. Objectively, when limited resources of finance funds are in countries, lending abroad has a huge influence on strengthening their financial systems and providing them with necessary funds. Policy of national debt management is inseparable part from national economy. Taking about national debt, one constantly confronts to budget deficit. The country is forced to finance formed budget deficit with loans. All countries of transitional economy need huge investments to modernize economy. The proportion of national stockpiling and gross domestic product (GDP) at that time is not high; therefore, the country does not have enough own resources for investments. Therefore, such countries, including Lithuania, have to borrow, and that is very normal. The country in credit relations participates like their subject. Usually the country takes a loan and guarantees for bigger sums than lends. The most important reason of this condition is that though national credit raised funds change taxes and funds collected in other ways. That is the main reason of formed national debt. Local finance resources are the most suitable country’s finance resources, especially if there resources are denominated by national currency. Inland debt is a very important factor that presents the level of country’s economical... [to full text]

Made available in DSpace on 2009-11-18T18:56:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ACF32F.pdf: 148209 bytes, checksum: e32d7f3dcebc75d9b0ccb0db13e7d7c7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / This study analyses the bids¿ dispersion in fixed income government securities auctions issued by the National Treasury of Brazil. We try to estimate the bids¿ variance based on factors that may forecast its movement. We hope to help the security issuer by offering more data before the auction. The basic idea is to relate the market uncertainty with the primary auction of government securities. Results indicates the importance of uncertainty on the bidding decisions. It shows also the need for a liquid secondary market to the selling of long-term fixed income securities. / Neste trabalho, buscamos analisar a dispersão das propostas em leilões de títulos públicos prefixados do Tesouro Nacional do Brasil. Tentamos estimar a variância das propostas baseados em fatores que possam prenunciar sua movimentação, como taxa de juros e mercado secundário de títulos. Nossa análise pretende ser uma fonte de informações para o ofertante de títulos, auxiliando-o na condução do leilão. Faremos um estudo sobre a influência da incerteza no mercado sobre a emissão primária de dívida pública. O trabalho evidencia o impacto que a incerteza, representada pela dispersão das propostas dos leilões, tem nas decisões de aquisição de títulos públicos prefixados pelas instituições. Evidencia também a importância da liquidez do mercado secundário para a demanda de papéis prefixados mais longos.

This research established the determinants of the investment choices between the RSA Government Retail Bonds and the stokvel by salaried individuals. The research carried out a comparative analysis between the two investment instruments. The main data was drawn from FinMark for the period 2011 to 2015. The research used a combination of data tables and graphs to analyse frequency (distribution) of use in each of the investment choices. The research used Pearson’s Chi square and Fishers’ t-test to determine the distribution, independence and Cramer’s V coefficient was applied to establish the correlation between the investment choices and the demographic under review. The outcome of the research indicated that more than risk or return inherent in the investment instruments under review, social, psychological and cultural disposition towards these investment instruments played a significant part in influencing the investment choices under review. Furthermore, lower educated individuals at low salary levels had the highest usage in stokvel and the highly educated at the higher level of education opted to invest in the RSA Government Retail Bonds. There was a very low usage in both the investment instruments by the ‘no formal education’ and primary education levels. Pearson’s Chi square and Fishers’ exact tests indicated that, race, education, location and salary levels can be used to explain the differences in investment choices between the RSA Government Retail Bonds and stokvel. According to these tests, age was statistically insignificant to explain the effects of the demographics under review on making investment choices. The results indicate that racial, educational, salary and location differences need to be properly factored into the policy development in so far as investment and savings are concerned. / Finance, Risk Management and Banking / M. Com. (Business Management)

A Estrutura a Termo de Taxas de Juros (ETTJ) é um elemento essencial para formulação da política monetária. Ela é capaz de indicar as expectativas do mercado financeiro em relação as taxas de juros futuras. Nesse trabalho estudamos a formação da ETTJ com enfoque maior na matemática envolvida, haja visto que na literatura esse assunto em geral é tratado apenas com foco na economia. Demonstramos as relações matemáticas entre as taxas de juros à vista, futuras e instantâneas. Estudamos também o modelo matemático empírico de previsão da curva de juros proposta por Lars E. O. Svensson (SVENSSON, 1994). Esse modelo é de fácil aplicação pois necessita de poucos parâmetros para se ajustar a curva de juros. Por esse motivo esse modelo tem sido amplamente usado em Bancos Centrais de diversos países inclusive pelo Banco Central do Brasil. Concluímos com uma aplicação do modelo de Svensson (SVENSSON, 1994) utilizando os preços dos títulos prefixados do Tesouro Direto. / The Term Structure of Interest Rates (TSIR) is an essential element for the formulation of monetary policy. It is able to indicate the expectations of the financial market in relation to future interest rates. In this work we study the formation of TSIR with a greater focus on the mathematics involved, since in the literature this subject is generally treated only with a focus on economics. We prove the mathematical relation between spot, future and instantaneous interest rates. We also study the empirical mathematical model of forecasting the interest curve proposed by Lars E. O. Svensson (SVENSSON, 1994). This model is easy to apply since it requires few parameters to adjust the interest curve. For this reason, this model has been widely used by Central Banks of several countries, including the Central Bank of Brazil. We conclude with an application of the Svensson (SVENSSON, 1994) model using the prices of fixed-rate Treasury Direct securities.

A Estrutura a Termo de Taxas de Juros (ETTJ) é um elemento essencial para formulação da política monetária. Ela é capaz de indicar as expectativas do mercado financeiro em relação as taxas de juros futuras. Nesse trabalho estudamos a formação da ETTJ com enfoque maior na matemática envolvida, haja visto que na literatura esse assunto em geral é tratado apenas com foco na economia. Demonstramos as relações matemáticas entre as taxas de juros à vista, futuras e instantâneas. Estudamos também o modelo matemático empírico de previsão da curva de juros proposta por Lars E. O. Svensson (SVENSSON, 1994). Esse modelo é de fácil aplicação pois necessita de poucos parâmetros para se ajustar a curva de juros. Por esse motivo esse modelo tem sido amplamente usado em Bancos Centrais de diversos países inclusive pelo Banco Central do Brasil. Concluímos com uma aplicação do modelo de Svensson (SVENSSON, 1994) utilizando os preços dos títulos prefixados do Tesouro Direto. / The Term Structure of Interest Rates (TSIR) is an essential element for the formulation of monetary policy. It is able to indicate the expectations of the financial market in relation to future interest rates. In this work we study the formation of TSIR with a greater focus on the mathematics involved, since in the literature this subject is generally treated only with a focus on economics. We prove the mathematical relation between spot, future and instantaneous interest rates. We also study the empirical mathematical model of forecasting the interest curve proposed by Lars E. O. Svensson (SVENSSON, 1994). This model is easy to apply since it requires few parameters to adjust the interest curve. For this reason, this model has been widely used by Central Banks of several countries, including the Central Bank of Brazil. We conclude with an application of the Svensson (SVENSSON, 1994) model using the prices of fixed-rate Treasury Direct securities.

This thesis aims at determining the theoretical and empirical consequences of the consideration of socially responsible indicators in the traditional portfolio selection. The first chapter studies the significance of the mean-variance efficiency loss of a sovereign bond portfolio when introducing a constraint on the average socially responsible ratings of the governments. By using a sample of developed sovereign bonds on the period 1995-2008, we show that it is possible to increase sensibly the average socially responsible rating without significantly losing in terms of diversification. The second chapter proposes a theoretical analysis of the impact on the efficient frontier of a constraint on the socially responsible ratings of the portfolio. We highlight that different cases may arise depending on the correlation between the expected returns and the socially responsible ratings and on the investor’s risk aversion. Lastly, as the issue of the efficiency of socially responsible portfolios is a central point in the financial literature, the last chapter proposes a new mean-variance efficiency test in the realistic case where there is no available risk-free asset. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The <u>first essay</u> [“Twin Deficits and Free Lunches: Macroeconomic Outcomes In Anticipation of Foreign Aid”] concerns itself with situations in which private agents anticipate a future windfall (free lunch) that will help service the debt resulting from a present fiscal expansion (implemented via a temporary tax cut). Such expectations of a windfall can arise in the context of natural resource discoveries or, more interestingly, due to perceptions by agents in “too important to fail” countries that will be bailed out through higher foreign aid or debt relief. We employ an overlapping generations model featuring credit constraints to study the real effects of such free lunch expectations in a small open economy, drawing contrasts with the standard tax and money finance closure rules. The model is solved analytically and shows that anticipated aid is equivalent to current aid when agents have perfect foresight, so that a temporary tax cut is seen as permanent. Accordingly, agents raise their consumption and indebtedness (at the expense of future generations) by an amount that is an increasing function of their “impatience” (subjective rates of time preference plus probability of death). A worsening of the current account obtains (twin deficits) across a range of plausible closure rules, including those featuring money finance. The introduction of credit constrained households (we study the variant where myopic agents spend their current disposable incomes) does not alter the basic result in the case of full aid finance, but does matter for mixed tax-aid regimes, in more complex settings where agent expectations and donor promises on aid diverge, and when governments face borrowing constraints so that the timing of aid delivery matters. The <u>second essay</u> [“The Role of Domestic Debt in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation For Developing Economies”] focuses on the remaining source of government financing, i.e. domestic debt, and the role it can play in mobilizing private savings, facilitating credit intermediation in higher risk settings (i.e. serving a “collateral” function on bank balance sheets), developing financial markets and supporting economic growth in general. To investigate this question empirically, we set up a new domestic debt database covering about 100 developing economies, going back three decades to 1975; explore Granger causality links between domestic debt and key macroeconomic and institutional variables; and estimate the growth impact of domestic debt using panel regressions, allowing for non-linear effects. Domestic debt, as a share of GDP is found to exert a significant positive impact on economic growth, with potential channels including domestic savings mobilization, provision of risk-insurance on banks’ balance sheets; and greater institutional accountability of the state to its citizens. Although this result countervails more established arguments against domestic debt (i.e. that it leads to crowding out and banks to become lazy), there is some evidence that above a ratio of 35 percent of bank deposits, domestic debt does begin to undermine economic growth. The growth payoff also depends on debt quality, with higher payoffs observed for positive interest-rate bearing marketable debt issued to nonbank sectors. The <u>third and final essay</u> [“Why Do Banks in Developing Economies Hold Domestic Government Securities?”] explores demand-side determinants of domestic debt, by focusing on commercial bank holdings of government paper, discriminating carefully between voluntary factors (such as mean-variance portfolio optimization) and statutory ones (cash reserve and capital adequacy requirements). The analysis is made possible by the construction of a dataset on government and private returns (real and nominal) for almost 600 banks from 70 emerging and low-income economies, spanning the (pre-Basel II) period 1995-2005. A battery of structural cross-section regressions indicates that banks’ portfolio decisions are at least as significantly influenced by mean-variance considerations as regulatory factors: the actual portfolio share of government securities (λ) responds intuitively, and sizably, to variations in the moments of the distributions for government and private returns as well as in the minimum-variance portfolio share (λ*). Higher cash reserve requirements tilt portfolios away from government securities toward riskier private lending, while higher capital adequacy requirements work the other way. The association between actual portfolios and the identified determinants is noticeably weaker at lower ends of the λ distribution, suggesting the domination of non-CAPM factors in those contexts.