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Conservative international thought in Victorian Britain is a prominent landmark in the landscape of international thought which has up to now gone unmapped. In illuminating this body of thought, the thesis addresses weaknesses present in three different historiographies. As the first detailed study of conservative international thought in Victorian Britain, the thesis rectifies a marked bias in Victorian intellectual history towards the study of liberal and radical thought. Furthermore, by analysing the political thought of major representatives of the conservative educated classes, this thesis provides context for the history of conservative high politics, thereby leading us to view these in a different light. Finally, this study, by providing a historically nuanced account of the evolution of major themes of international relations theory in mid-Victorian Britain, functions as a corrective to the self-history of the academic field of International Relations. The thesis makes its argument by analysing conservative contributions in periodicals, pamphlets, and newspapers to British public debates on international affairs, from the Crimean War (1854-56) until the Eastern Question crisis of 1876-80. The general claim of this thesis is that there existed a distinctly conservative perspective on the international sphere. The core elements of this conservative perspective were the primacy of statesmen in setting foreign policy; of interests, military force, and stature in determining the course of international politics; and of order and equilibrium as its normative content. Conservative authors used this constellation of ideas in the major debates of the mid-Victorian era on international affairs, both as a means to make sense of events, and as a counterpoint to liberal narratives - with which Victorian international thought is all too often identified. In recovering the international political thought of Victorian conservatives, this thesis illuminates an important but neglected aspect of how international relations were understood and conceptualised in mid-Victorian Britain.

The Austrian State Treaty, achieved after ten years of occupation of Austria by France, Britain, the United States and the Soviet Union, is a frequently cited example of the triumph of painstaking diplomacy between the great powers, but it can more accurately be depicted as the result of unilateral actions by the negotiating countries, particularly the Soviet Union. Careful examination of the records of the negotiations as well as available policy documents of the participants reveals that the highly publicized negotiations gradually became a sophisticated charade for the benefit of European and domestic audiences, while the critical decisions were made elsewhere. Indeed, as Europe grew increasingly polarized very little actual bargaining occurred between East and West; the Austrian negotiations became merely a forum for unilateral action. Thus, in describing the search for Austrian independence, the thesis is not simply a reiteration of the three hundred and seventy-nine meetings of the Foreign Ministers and Foreign Ministers' Deputies for Austria. Rather, it is a uniquely encapsulated version of the course of the Gold War in the ten critical years following the Second World War. The purpose of the thesis is to study, through the prism of British and American documents, the behaviour of the four great powers in the struggle to determine the future of Austria. Examining allied behaviour towards this small but strategically important country, and understanding how the Austrians came to choose a third way between East and West, sheds light upon the great power arrangements in Europe which have persisted to this day.

O eixo central deste trabalho é a análise dos impactos que a ascensão da China poderá trazer ao Leste Asiático. Para cumprir esta tarefa, divide-se o desenvolvimento do trabalho em três capítulos. O primeiro investiga o fenômeno chamado de ascensão da China, que consiste no incremento das capacidades desse país e da consequente elevação de seu status relativo em âmbito regional (e global). Considera-se que este processo deve ser tomado em perspectiva histórica a partir do modo como o país e sua sociedade tradicionalmente se relacionaram com o exterior. Argumenta-se que a ascensão da China provoca uma alteração fundamental na polaridade e na polarização regionais, com implicações em âmbito global. Desta feita, o segundo capítulo consiste em examinar o contexto regional a partir de análises das políticas externa e de segurança dos principais atores regionais para o Leste Asiático. Isso é feito através de dois pontos de vista: a atuação regional e as relações com a China, incluindo a reação à ascensão da China. Constata-se que diante da rivalidade estratégica entre a potência hegemônica e a potência ascendente — respectivamente, Estados Unidos e China — os demais atores regionais buscam manter sua autonomia e margem de manobra entre as duas potências. O terceiro e último capítulo tem por propósito elaborar uma série de possíveis perspectivas para os desdobramentos regionais, baseado nas implicações para a polaridade, para a polarização e para as possibilidades de conflito e concertação regionais. Para tanto, utiliza-se os indicadores levantados nos capítulos anteriores e nas análises e proposições já feitas sobre o assunto. Considera-se três possíveis perspectivas: uma hegemonia chinesa sem ocorrência de guerra central; o acirramento das tensões entre Pequim e Washington, com possibilidade de guerra central; e concertação e criação de mecanismos de governança entre os atores regionais, podendo esta concertação ser anárquica — sem líderes aparentes — ou hierárquica — condomínio de potências —. Considera-se que a primeira e a terceira perspectivas apresentam a possibilidade do surgimento uma nova ordem regional sem guerra central, enquanto o segundo considera que não haverá novo tipo de governança no contexto da rivalidade estratégica entre China e Estados Unidos. Por fim, vislumbram-se algumas possibilidades para o Brasil e futuras agendas de pesquisa. / The central axis of this work is the analysis of the impacts of China's rise may have on East Asia. In order to accomplish this, research is divided in three chapters. The first explores the China's rise as a phenomenon which consists of the increase of Chinese capabilities and the consequent elevation of its relative status on a regional (and global) level. This process must be taken into account within a historical perspective, considering how the country and its society traditionally relate with the exterior. The proposed argument is that China's rise generates a fundamental change in the regional polarity and polarization, with global and regional-level implications. Thus, the second chapter consists of a study of the regional context based on an analysis of the foreign and defense policies of the main regional actors in East Asia. Two points are considered for this: their regional actions and their relations with China, more specifically, how they deal with the Chinese change of status. Accordingly, these regional actors seek to maintain their autonomy and leeway vis-à-vis the strategic rivalry between the hegemon and the rising power: the US and China respectively. The third and last chapter elaborates a series of possible regional scenarios, based on their implications to polarity, polarization, and the likelihood of conflict or regional concertation. To achieve this, this assessment uses indicators presented in the previous chapters and from analyses and propositions by other authors. Three main scenarios are considered: a Chinese hegemony without a central war, the intensification of tensions between Beijing and Washington (with a likely central war), and the creation of governance and concertation mechanisms between the regional actors. These mechanisms might be anarchical — without apparent leaders — or hierarchical. Further examination shows that the first and third scenarios present the possibility of the emergence of a new regional order without a central war, while the second scenario deems that there will not be a new governance type within the strategic rivalry context. Lastly, this work offers some of the opportunities this phenomenon may bring to Brazil, as well as suggests a further research agenda.

The purpose of this paper was to examine if UN (United Nations) peacekeeping operations an be used as a tool to promote great powers own interests and enable power maximization for states in the international system. In other words, if great powers really cooperate with each other to promote peace or if they only seek to maximize their own power position. Based on the assumption that the state’s own interests benefit from its commitment to the UN and that it ultimately can increase the state’spower position, it becomes thus important to identify a state’sown interests to contribute to an explanation of how states act within international institutions. The case of China and its actions in African countries through the UN peacekeeping operations MONUSCO and UNMIS are evaluated, to verify if China applies to 4 of the 5 assumptions raised in John Mearsheimer’s theory of offensive realism. This, to illustrate how states attempt to use economic, military and multilateral means to increase their power position in the international system. The conclusion of the analysis is that 3 (possibly 4) of Mearsheimer’s assumptions are encountered by China’s actions. After demonstrating that China applies to some of theas sumptions of offensive realism, this study suggests further research concerning the connection between great powers pursuit of power and its commitment to UN peacekeeping operations.

O eixo central deste trabalho é a análise dos impactos que a ascensão da China poderá trazer ao Leste Asiático. Para cumprir esta tarefa, divide-se o desenvolvimento do trabalho em três capítulos. O primeiro investiga o fenômeno chamado de ascensão da China, que consiste no incremento das capacidades desse país e da consequente elevação de seu status relativo em âmbito regional (e global). Considera-se que este processo deve ser tomado em perspectiva histórica a partir do modo como o país e sua sociedade tradicionalmente se relacionaram com o exterior. Argumenta-se que a ascensão da China provoca uma alteração fundamental na polaridade e na polarização regionais, com implicações em âmbito global. Desta feita, o segundo capítulo consiste em examinar o contexto regional a partir de análises das políticas externa e de segurança dos principais atores regionais para o Leste Asiático. Isso é feito através de dois pontos de vista: a atuação regional e as relações com a China, incluindo a reação à ascensão da China. Constata-se que diante da rivalidade estratégica entre a potência hegemônica e a potência ascendente — respectivamente, Estados Unidos e China — os demais atores regionais buscam manter sua autonomia e margem de manobra entre as duas potências. O terceiro e último capítulo tem por propósito elaborar uma série de possíveis perspectivas para os desdobramentos regionais, baseado nas implicações para a polaridade, para a polarização e para as possibilidades de conflito e concertação regionais. Para tanto, utiliza-se os indicadores levantados nos capítulos anteriores e nas análises e proposições já feitas sobre o assunto. Considera-se três possíveis perspectivas: uma hegemonia chinesa sem ocorrência de guerra central; o acirramento das tensões entre Pequim e Washington, com possibilidade de guerra central; e concertação e criação de mecanismos de governança entre os atores regionais, podendo esta concertação ser anárquica — sem líderes aparentes — ou hierárquica — condomínio de potências —. Considera-se que a primeira e a terceira perspectivas apresentam a possibilidade do surgimento uma nova ordem regional sem guerra central, enquanto o segundo considera que não haverá novo tipo de governança no contexto da rivalidade estratégica entre China e Estados Unidos. Por fim, vislumbram-se algumas possibilidades para o Brasil e futuras agendas de pesquisa. / The central axis of this work is the analysis of the impacts of China's rise may have on East Asia. In order to accomplish this, research is divided in three chapters. The first explores the China's rise as a phenomenon which consists of the increase of Chinese capabilities and the consequent elevation of its relative status on a regional (and global) level. This process must be taken into account within a historical perspective, considering how the country and its society traditionally relate with the exterior. The proposed argument is that China's rise generates a fundamental change in the regional polarity and polarization, with global and regional-level implications. Thus, the second chapter consists of a study of the regional context based on an analysis of the foreign and defense policies of the main regional actors in East Asia. Two points are considered for this: their regional actions and their relations with China, more specifically, how they deal with the Chinese change of status. Accordingly, these regional actors seek to maintain their autonomy and leeway vis-à-vis the strategic rivalry between the hegemon and the rising power: the US and China respectively. The third and last chapter elaborates a series of possible regional scenarios, based on their implications to polarity, polarization, and the likelihood of conflict or regional concertation. To achieve this, this assessment uses indicators presented in the previous chapters and from analyses and propositions by other authors. Three main scenarios are considered: a Chinese hegemony without a central war, the intensification of tensions between Beijing and Washington (with a likely central war), and the creation of governance and concertation mechanisms between the regional actors. These mechanisms might be anarchical — without apparent leaders — or hierarchical. Further examination shows that the first and third scenarios present the possibility of the emergence of a new regional order without a central war, while the second scenario deems that there will not be a new governance type within the strategic rivalry context. Lastly, this work offers some of the opportunities this phenomenon may bring to Brazil, as well as suggests a further research agenda.

O eixo central deste trabalho é a análise dos impactos que a ascensão da China poderá trazer ao Leste Asiático. Para cumprir esta tarefa, divide-se o desenvolvimento do trabalho em três capítulos. O primeiro investiga o fenômeno chamado de ascensão da China, que consiste no incremento das capacidades desse país e da consequente elevação de seu status relativo em âmbito regional (e global). Considera-se que este processo deve ser tomado em perspectiva histórica a partir do modo como o país e sua sociedade tradicionalmente se relacionaram com o exterior. Argumenta-se que a ascensão da China provoca uma alteração fundamental na polaridade e na polarização regionais, com implicações em âmbito global. Desta feita, o segundo capítulo consiste em examinar o contexto regional a partir de análises das políticas externa e de segurança dos principais atores regionais para o Leste Asiático. Isso é feito através de dois pontos de vista: a atuação regional e as relações com a China, incluindo a reação à ascensão da China. Constata-se que diante da rivalidade estratégica entre a potência hegemônica e a potência ascendente — respectivamente, Estados Unidos e China — os demais atores regionais buscam manter sua autonomia e margem de manobra entre as duas potências. O terceiro e último capítulo tem por propósito elaborar uma série de possíveis perspectivas para os desdobramentos regionais, baseado nas implicações para a polaridade, para a polarização e para as possibilidades de conflito e concertação regionais. Para tanto, utiliza-se os indicadores levantados nos capítulos anteriores e nas análises e proposições já feitas sobre o assunto. Considera-se três possíveis perspectivas: uma hegemonia chinesa sem ocorrência de guerra central; o acirramento das tensões entre Pequim e Washington, com possibilidade de guerra central; e concertação e criação de mecanismos de governança entre os atores regionais, podendo esta concertação ser anárquica — sem líderes aparentes — ou hierárquica — condomínio de potências —. Considera-se que a primeira e a terceira perspectivas apresentam a possibilidade do surgimento uma nova ordem regional sem guerra central, enquanto o segundo considera que não haverá novo tipo de governança no contexto da rivalidade estratégica entre China e Estados Unidos. Por fim, vislumbram-se algumas possibilidades para o Brasil e futuras agendas de pesquisa. / The central axis of this work is the analysis of the impacts of China's rise may have on East Asia. In order to accomplish this, research is divided in three chapters. The first explores the China's rise as a phenomenon which consists of the increase of Chinese capabilities and the consequent elevation of its relative status on a regional (and global) level. This process must be taken into account within a historical perspective, considering how the country and its society traditionally relate with the exterior. The proposed argument is that China's rise generates a fundamental change in the regional polarity and polarization, with global and regional-level implications. Thus, the second chapter consists of a study of the regional context based on an analysis of the foreign and defense policies of the main regional actors in East Asia. Two points are considered for this: their regional actions and their relations with China, more specifically, how they deal with the Chinese change of status. Accordingly, these regional actors seek to maintain their autonomy and leeway vis-à-vis the strategic rivalry between the hegemon and the rising power: the US and China respectively. The third and last chapter elaborates a series of possible regional scenarios, based on their implications to polarity, polarization, and the likelihood of conflict or regional concertation. To achieve this, this assessment uses indicators presented in the previous chapters and from analyses and propositions by other authors. Three main scenarios are considered: a Chinese hegemony without a central war, the intensification of tensions between Beijing and Washington (with a likely central war), and the creation of governance and concertation mechanisms between the regional actors. These mechanisms might be anarchical — without apparent leaders — or hierarchical. Further examination shows that the first and third scenarios present the possibility of the emergence of a new regional order without a central war, while the second scenario deems that there will not be a new governance type within the strategic rivalry context. Lastly, this work offers some of the opportunities this phenomenon may bring to Brazil, as well as suggests a further research agenda.

The system changed after the Cold War and the bipolar structure ended and left the USA as the only superpower. The question of the 21st century what is the current structure and how the emerging powers are becoming more important and how it can change the structure and rise their dominance in the multipolar world. The analyzed actors Brazil, China and Russia through their strategies are offering the possible system changes and configurations for the near future from the realist/neorealist perspective.

Great powers have almost exclusively decided the destiny of international relations. The birth, life, and death of an order have been regulated by those actors with the largest military, strategic, economic, and other capabilities. Conceptually building upon the premises of structural realism, the thesis claims that the Chinese nuclear rise is the decisive factor for the disappearance of the incumbent international system and the consequent rise of the new one, labeled as asymmetric triangular nuclear competition. This critically affects the notion of strategic stability, adjusting its characteristics for a different strategic environment. The research has twofold relevance. First, in the academic sense, it deepens a scantly treated debate on the interconnection between the management of nuclear weapons arsenal and the overall outlook of the international system. Second, in the practical sense, the study of the behavior of great powers provides an excellent foundation for policy analysis. The aforementioned is achieved in the three stages. In the beginning, the Chinese nuclear rise is considered as a set of comprehensive reforms in terms of weapons systems, military apparatus, but also doctrines and strategic concepts. After that, the nuclear rise is put in the context of Chinese silent moves from...

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