The period of 1864/1865-1870 represents the final stage of the unification of Germany, during which Prussia adopted a resolute approach and in two quick wars succeeded in eliminating its enemies - Austria and France. The aim of the diploma thesis is to present and critically analyse the Prussian foreign policy based on the study of sources and relevant literature. The author assesses factors which influenced the Prussian prime minister and the representatives of the European powers in their decisions. He also asks the question whether Bismarck merely adapted to the circumstances which inevitably led to the war with Austria or whether he himself contributed to their creation and speeded up the whole process. The most attention is then paid to France which was the greatest opponent of the unification of Germany of all powers. The study looks into the methods and steps which enabled Prussia to prevent the great European powers from getting involved into its conflict with Vienna and Paris. Moreover, it points out the challenges of the research on circumstances which led to the outbreak of the Franco-Prussian War. Key words Prussia, Great Powers, German Confederation, Unification of Germany, Austrian Empire, Austria-Hungary, foreign policy, Austro-Prussian War, Franco-Prussian War, Napoleon III

The Central Asia region, that once used to be condemned for a period of time, is now a golden target of the world leaders because of its natural resources so essential for the world. This attempt to get the access to important energies could cause worries about The New great game in Central Asia to many people. The aim of this thesis is to compare the power leadership of four world leaders, Russia, China, the USA and the EU, based on their hard and soft power in Central Asia region and to investigate the possible clash of interests of these countries quoting The New great game, Huntington's theory of Clash of civilisations and Brzezinski's Great Chessboard. At the very end of the theses there is an agreement of their interests, which would bring the answer to the negative assumptions and worries about the development of competition of the great powers in Central Asia.

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study explores the claim that Great Power Wars are a necessary condition for successful hegemonic ascent in the modern world-system, primarily from the standpoint of World- Systems Analysis. This study advances the conception of hegemony primarily in economic and state terms, and it was investigated, by way of a historical case study, how the Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) impacted the economic domains of agro-industrial production, commerce, and finance of the United Provinces of the Netherlands, and its main rival for systemic leadership, Hapsburg Spain. The variables utilised in the study were Great Power War, and the ‘material base’ of the state involved (both independent), the three abovementioned economic domains (intervening), and hegemony or defeat (dependent). The case study was primarily descriptive and explanatory, with the use of process-tracing in its compilation, and a method of within-case structured, focused comparison was utilised with the aim of tentatively producing standardised, generalised knowledge concerning the wider link between Great Power War and hegemony beyond the Dutch case. The findings of the study, although derived from only one historical case of hegemonic ascent in the modern world-system, strongly support the argument that Great Power War is necessary to secure the hegemony of the leading insular core state, which is physically removed from the fighting during the conflict, since the full mobilisation of its economy is effected, while the economies of most other core states are impaired, especially the main continental rival for hegemony. However, the ascending hegemon must also possess the requisite favourable ‘material base’. Further research on this topic is called for, given the potential destructiveness of a future Great Power War, and its role in establishing hegemony in the modern world-system. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die bewering dat Groot Moontheid Oorloë ‘n noodsaaklike vereiste is vir suksesvolle hegemoniese bestyging in die moderne wêreld-sisteem, hoofsaaklik vanaf die standpunt van Wêreld-Sisteem Analise. Hierdie studie bevorder die konsepsie van hegemonie hoofsaaklik in ekonomiese en staat terme, en dit het ondersoek, deur middel van ‘n historiese gevallestudie, hoe die Dertig Jaar Oorlog (1618-1648) ingewerk het op die ekonomiese arenas van agri-industriële produksie, handel, and finansies van die Verenigde Provinsies van Nederland, en hul mededinger vir sistemiese leierskap, Spanje. Die veranderlikes wat in die studie ingespan was, was Groot Moontheid Oorlog, en die ‘materiële basis’ van die state in kwessie (onafhanlik), die drie bogenoemde ekonomiese arenas (albei tussenkomend), en hegemonie of nederlaag (afhanklik). Die gevallestudie was hoofsaaklik beskrywend en verduidelikend, en proses-nasporing (oftewel ‘process-tracing’) is in die samestelling daarvan benut, en ‘n metode van gestruktureerde, gefokusde vergelyking (oftewel ‘structured, focused comparison’) is gebruik binne die gevallestudie met die doel om tentatiewe gestandardiseerde en veralgemeende kennis te genereer wat bydra tot die verduideliking van die wyer skakel tussen Groot Moontheid Oorlog en hegemonie buite die geval van die Verenigde Provinsies. Die bevindinge van die studie, hoewel gegenereer aan die hand van slegs een historiese geval van hegemoniese bestyging in the moderne wêreld-sisteem, het sterk steun verleen aan die argument dat Groot Moontheid Oorloë nodig is om die hegemonie van die vernaamste insulêre kern staat te bewerkstellig, wat fisies verwyderd van die gevegte is tydends die oorlog, aangesien die volle mobilisasie van die ekonomie van hierdie staat bewerkstellig word, terwyl die ekonomieë van die meerderheid van die ander kernstate benadeel word, veral die vernaamste kontinentale mededinger om hegemonie. Die opkomende hegemoon moet egter ook oor die vereiste gunstige ‘materiële basis’ beskik. Verdere navorsing in hierdie veld word benodig, gegewe die waarskynlike vernietiging wat gesaai kan word deur ‘n toekomstige Groot Moontheid Oorlog, en die rol daarvan in die daarstelling van hegemonie in die moderne wêreld-sisteem.

Turbulences et changements institutionnels au sein de la Société internationale : une perspective historique Cette recherche puise ses origines du constat que la présente société internationale apparaît plus que jamais mal outillée et en perte de légitimité pour gérer les nouveaux déséquilibres qui ébranlent sa sécurité. Nous voulons vérifier si les présentes difficultés à gérer l’ordre interétatique sont des signes précurseurs d’une période de turbulences systémiques qui ébranleraient ses fondations. Nous avançons comme principale hypothèse de recherche qu’une perte de légitimité dans les mécanismes d’ordre d’une société westphalienne engendre une période plus ou moins longue de turbulences systémiques, provoquant un retour à l’antihégémonie caractérisée par l’établissement d’un nouvel ordre sociétal. Pour vérifier cette hypothèse, nous nous associons au cadre théorique de l’École anglaise qui analyse les relations interétatiques en qualifiant le caractère de l’ordre qui les gouverne. Ses adeptes y parviennent en étudiant les forces qui engendrent le maintien d’un environnement international antihégémonique, ainsi que la nature des réciprocités interétatiques qui s’en dégage. Ainsi, en observant les diverses institutions créées pour gérer l’ordre, ils sont en mesure de mieux comprendre l’évolution, la diffusion et la pérennisation de l’établissement d’une société des États. Cette approche nous a permis de construire un modèle explicatif pour notre dynamique sociétale. Par la suite, afin de répondre à notre questionnement initial, nous proposons d’analyser le statut de diverses sociétés internationales lors d’époques caractérisées par une période systémique de grands chaos, suivie du retour d’un régime sociétal. Nous cherchons à établir si des analogies peuvent être faites sur leur processus de transformation pour, par la suite, vérifier si elles peuvent s’appliquer à la nature du changement qui s’opère dans la présente société internationale. L’analyse historique comparative s’avère un instrument tout désigné pour ce type de recherche. Les époques sélectionnées pour notre recherche couvrent la Guerre de Trente Ans, les Guerres napoléoniennes et la Première Guerre mondiale. La nature antihégémonique d’une société des États, en plus de maintenir un environnement anarchique, crée un climat de rivalités qui entraîne un processus de transformations dans la dynamique de l’ordre. Ce facteur de changement fut introduit sous le concept de progrès sociétal, lequel engendre une désuétude institutionnelle dans les mécanismes de l’ordre sociétal, pouvant entraîner une période de turbulences systémiques. Ainsi, pour mieux observer ce phénomène, nous avons adopté les institutions comme outils d’analyse. Elles nous permettent d’être plus critiques des phénomènes observés, tout en nous autorisant à les comparer entre elles, en raison de leur longévité. Nos recherches révèlent la pérennité d’une dynamique de transformation au sein des sociétés westphaliennes, dont la nature entraîne des déséquilibres sociétaux qui varient selon son intensité. Nous observons aussi que, malgré l’égalité légale que confère la souveraineté aux États, les Grandes puissances sont les principaux artisans d’un système international. Leur aptitude à l’unilatéralisme fut souvent associée à l’émergence de turbulences systémiques. Nos recherches montrent que l’interdépendance et la coopération interétatique sont aussi alimentées par la diffusion et le partage d’une économie libérale. C’est aussi cette même interdépendance qui, progressivement, rend la guerre entre Grandes puissances désuète. Plus l’interdépendance et le multilatéralisme s’intensifient dans un environnement sociétal, plus le progrès sociétal a tendance à se manifester sous les aspects d’une transformation systémique progressive (non violente) plutôt que révolutionnaire (période de turbulences systémiques). La présente société internationale est sous l’influence du progrès sociétal depuis son avènement. Sa stabilité est directement liée à la capacité de ses mécanismes d’ordre à contrer les déséquilibres que le progrès engendre, ainsi qu’à l’aptitude de ses Grandes puissances à limiter leur propension à l’unilatéralisme. Donc, ces mécanismes doivent pouvoir intégrer le progrès pour maintenir leur légitimité et éviter d’engendrer une période de turbulences systémiques. / Turbulence and institutional changes within the international Society: an historical perspective Our inquiry has its origins in the acknowledgement that the current international society appears, more than ever, deficient and lacking legitimacy in its management of emerging threats which affect its security. This dissertation aims to verify whether the present difficulties to manage the interstate order are precursors of a period of systemic turbulences. We propose as our principal research hypothesis that a loss of legitimacy within the law and order mechanisms of a Westphalian society will generate a rather long period of systemic turbulences, creating a return to an antihegemonic system characterized by the establishment of a new a new system of societal law and order. To test this hypothesis, we have joined the theoretical framework of the English School which observes the interstate relations by assessing the character of the order that governs them. Its followers succeed in studying the forces that create the maintenance of an antihegemonic international environment, and the nature of the interstate reciprocities that emerge from it. Then, by observing the institutions created to manage the law and order, they are in a position to better understand the evolution, the diffusion and the perpetuation of a society of States. This approach allows us to construct an explanatory model of our societal dynamic. In order to answer our initial query, we propose to analyse the status of various international societies from different epochs, each one containing a period of systemic turbulences followed by the return of societal regime. We intend to establish if any analogies can be drawn between their transformative processes, and thus determine whether these processes can be applied to the transformations taking place within the current international society. An historical comparative analysis proves to be an appropriate tool for our type of research. The periods selected for this research are the Thirty Years' War, the Napoleonic Wars, and the First World War including the ‘inter-war’ period. The antihegemonic nature of a society of States, in addition to maintaining an anarchic environment, creates a climate of rivalries which generate transformation within the law and order dynamic. This transformative factor was introduced under the concept of societal progress, which generates, within the societal law and order mechanisms, institutional obsolescence that can create a period of systemic turbulences. To observe this phenomenon, we have adopted institutions as analytical tools. Institutions will allow us to be more critical, and will facilitate comparisons between them, considering their longevity. Our findings indicate the existence of a lasting dynamic of transformation within Westphalian societies, generating levels of societal turbulences, which vary according to their intensity. We also observed that despite the legal equality that sovereignty provides in a society of States, the Great powers remain the principal architects of their society. Their innate aptitude toward unilateralism was often associated with the emergence of systemic turbulence. Our research shows that interstate interdependence and cooperation were also fuelled by the expansion of a liberal economy. In a societal environment, as interdependence and multilateralism intensify, the propensity for societal progress is more inclined to take the aspect of a progressive type of systemic transformation than of a period of violent revolutionary systemic turbulence. Our international society of States has always been under the influence of societal progress since its inception. Stability of its future is tied to its ability to counter external threats and that of the Great powers’ capacity to limit their propensity to unilateralism. Law and order mechanisms must then be able to integrate societal progress to allow the maintenance of legitimacy and the avoidance of a revolutionary systemic transformation period.

和平與安全是人類衷心想望的目標。在國際關係理論中，集體安全是 值得努力的制度。唯其需要參與者對組織和其他成員全然的信任和委託才 得以成功地實現。在國際組織的歷史中，國聯與聯合國均以集體安全為手 段，節制衝突、積極合作，期達成和平和安全的理想世界。 冷戰時期 ，美蘇之間的互不信任造成在各方面競爭，企圖尋求優勢以獲安全。安理 會在此種爭奪下，深受內部不和諧、功能不彰之苦，於維持和平的方法上 作因應變化和發展。在戈巴契夫新思維倡導下，冷戰和緩以迄結束，美蘇 由敵對關係轉變成伙伴關係。在彼此信任的基礎上攜手共同維持國際和平 ，安理會維持和平的功能乃日漸提昇。 波斯灣危機中，安理會的運作 乃是部分回歸憲章的集體安全制度。此種經驗雖重燃起國際社會對實施集 體安全的信心和盼望，然其實施卻仍依賴強權國之政治支持意願而定。至 於和平與安全的根本問題則是在人心人性的深處，而少數傑出政治家所能 獨力為之的。

Turbulences et changements institutionnels au sein de la Société internationale : une perspective historique Cette recherche puise ses origines du constat que la présente société internationale apparaît plus que jamais mal outillée et en perte de légitimité pour gérer les nouveaux déséquilibres qui ébranlent sa sécurité. Nous voulons vérifier si les présentes difficultés à gérer l’ordre interétatique sont des signes précurseurs d’une période de turbulences systémiques qui ébranleraient ses fondations. Nous avançons comme principale hypothèse de recherche qu’une perte de légitimité dans les mécanismes d’ordre d’une société westphalienne engendre une période plus ou moins longue de turbulences systémiques, provoquant un retour à l’antihégémonie caractérisée par l’établissement d’un nouvel ordre sociétal. Pour vérifier cette hypothèse, nous nous associons au cadre théorique de l’École anglaise qui analyse les relations interétatiques en qualifiant le caractère de l’ordre qui les gouverne. Ses adeptes y parviennent en étudiant les forces qui engendrent le maintien d’un environnement international antihégémonique, ainsi que la nature des réciprocités interétatiques qui s’en dégage. Ainsi, en observant les diverses institutions créées pour gérer l’ordre, ils sont en mesure de mieux comprendre l’évolution, la diffusion et la pérennisation de l’établissement d’une société des États. Cette approche nous a permis de construire un modèle explicatif pour notre dynamique sociétale. Par la suite, afin de répondre à notre questionnement initial, nous proposons d’analyser le statut de diverses sociétés internationales lors d’époques caractérisées par une période systémique de grands chaos, suivie du retour d’un régime sociétal. Nous cherchons à établir si des analogies peuvent être faites sur leur processus de transformation pour, par la suite, vérifier si elles peuvent s’appliquer à la nature du changement qui s’opère dans la présente société internationale. L’analyse historique comparative s’avère un instrument tout désigné pour ce type de recherche. Les époques sélectionnées pour notre recherche couvrent la Guerre de Trente Ans, les Guerres napoléoniennes et la Première Guerre mondiale. La nature antihégémonique d’une société des États, en plus de maintenir un environnement anarchique, crée un climat de rivalités qui entraîne un processus de transformations dans la dynamique de l’ordre. Ce facteur de changement fut introduit sous le concept de progrès sociétal, lequel engendre une désuétude institutionnelle dans les mécanismes de l’ordre sociétal, pouvant entraîner une période de turbulences systémiques. Ainsi, pour mieux observer ce phénomène, nous avons adopté les institutions comme outils d’analyse. Elles nous permettent d’être plus critiques des phénomènes observés, tout en nous autorisant à les comparer entre elles, en raison de leur longévité. Nos recherches révèlent la pérennité d’une dynamique de transformation au sein des sociétés westphaliennes, dont la nature entraîne des déséquilibres sociétaux qui varient selon son intensité. Nous observons aussi que, malgré l’égalité légale que confère la souveraineté aux États, les Grandes puissances sont les principaux artisans d’un système international. Leur aptitude à l’unilatéralisme fut souvent associée à l’émergence de turbulences systémiques. Nos recherches montrent que l’interdépendance et la coopération interétatique sont aussi alimentées par la diffusion et le partage d’une économie libérale. C’est aussi cette même interdépendance qui, progressivement, rend la guerre entre Grandes puissances désuète. Plus l’interdépendance et le multilatéralisme s’intensifient dans un environnement sociétal, plus le progrès sociétal a tendance à se manifester sous les aspects d’une transformation systémique progressive (non violente) plutôt que révolutionnaire (période de turbulences systémiques). La présente société internationale est sous l’influence du progrès sociétal depuis son avènement. Sa stabilité est directement liée à la capacité de ses mécanismes d’ordre à contrer les déséquilibres que le progrès engendre, ainsi qu’à l’aptitude de ses Grandes puissances à limiter leur propension à l’unilatéralisme. Donc, ces mécanismes doivent pouvoir intégrer le progrès pour maintenir leur légitimité et éviter d’engendrer une période de turbulences systémiques. / Turbulence and institutional changes within the international Society: an historical perspective Our inquiry has its origins in the acknowledgement that the current international society appears, more than ever, deficient and lacking legitimacy in its management of emerging threats which affect its security. This dissertation aims to verify whether the present difficulties to manage the interstate order are precursors of a period of systemic turbulences. We propose as our principal research hypothesis that a loss of legitimacy within the law and order mechanisms of a Westphalian society will generate a rather long period of systemic turbulences, creating a return to an antihegemonic system characterized by the establishment of a new a new system of societal law and order. To test this hypothesis, we have joined the theoretical framework of the English School which observes the interstate relations by assessing the character of the order that governs them. Its followers succeed in studying the forces that create the maintenance of an antihegemonic international environment, and the nature of the interstate reciprocities that emerge from it. Then, by observing the institutions created to manage the law and order, they are in a position to better understand the evolution, the diffusion and the perpetuation of a society of States. This approach allows us to construct an explanatory model of our societal dynamic. In order to answer our initial query, we propose to analyse the status of various international societies from different epochs, each one containing a period of systemic turbulences followed by the return of societal regime. We intend to establish if any analogies can be drawn between their transformative processes, and thus determine whether these processes can be applied to the transformations taking place within the current international society. An historical comparative analysis proves to be an appropriate tool for our type of research. The periods selected for this research are the Thirty Years' War, the Napoleonic Wars, and the First World War including the ‘inter-war’ period. The antihegemonic nature of a society of States, in addition to maintaining an anarchic environment, creates a climate of rivalries which generate transformation within the law and order dynamic. This transformative factor was introduced under the concept of societal progress, which generates, within the societal law and order mechanisms, institutional obsolescence that can create a period of systemic turbulences. To observe this phenomenon, we have adopted institutions as analytical tools. Institutions will allow us to be more critical, and will facilitate comparisons between them, considering their longevity. Our findings indicate the existence of a lasting dynamic of transformation within Westphalian societies, generating levels of societal turbulences, which vary according to their intensity. We also observed that despite the legal equality that sovereignty provides in a society of States, the Great powers remain the principal architects of their society. Their innate aptitude toward unilateralism was often associated with the emergence of systemic turbulence. Our research shows that interstate interdependence and cooperation were also fuelled by the expansion of a liberal economy. In a societal environment, as interdependence and multilateralism intensify, the propensity for societal progress is more inclined to take the aspect of a progressive type of systemic transformation than of a period of violent revolutionary systemic turbulence. Our international society of States has always been under the influence of societal progress since its inception. Stability of its future is tied to its ability to counter external threats and that of the Great powers’ capacity to limit their propensity to unilateralism. Law and order mechanisms must then be able to integrate societal progress to allow the maintenance of legitimacy and the avoidance of a revolutionary systemic transformation period.

O presente trabalho investiga a influência do sistema internacional e de seus principais componentes no processo de construção e desconstrução da República Federativa Socialista da Iugoslávia. A partir da consideração dos conceitos de Charles Tilly sobre guerra e dominação, busca-se trazer a política e as relações internacionais para o centro da discussão sobre a questão iugoslava, a qual é comumente tratada apenas na perspectiva étnica. Assim, os principais fatos da trajetória iugoslava são pincelados à luz das estratégias político-econômicas dos grandes poderes mundiais em relação ao território balcânico. Para isso, analisa-se a criação e a dissolução da Iugoslávia pela ótica da teoria dos sistemas-mundo de Immanuel Wallerstein, para mostrar que a posição que este país ocupou no sistema mundial contemporâneo foi determinada pelos interesses estratégicos das grandes potências, que exerceram a dominação da região em termos políticos e econômicos. O propósito é mostrar que os principais pólos de poder do sistema-mundo da época incentivaram a criação do Estado iugoslavo em razão de interesses específicos, e instrumentalizaram o conflito étnico quando estes interesses já não mais existiam, com o fim da Guerra Fria e a queda do comunismo. / This study investigates the influence of the international system and its major components in the construction and dissolution of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Considering Charles Tilly’s concepts on war and domination, we try to bring politics and international relations to the center of the discussion on Yugoslavia, which is often treated solely from the ethnicity perspective. Thus, the main facts of Yugoslav history are brushed in light of the political-economic strategies of the great powers over the Balkans. We analyze the creation and dissolution of Yugoslavia from the perspective of Immanuel Wallerstein's worldsystems theory, in order to show that the position occupied by this country in the contemporary world system was determined by strategic interests of great powers which have dominated the region politically and economically. The purpose is to show that the major powers encouraged the establishment of the Yugoslav state due to their interests, and when these interests no longer existed, they instrumentalized the ethnic conflict in the end of the Cold War and the fall of communism.

O presente trabalho investiga a influência do sistema internacional e de seus principais componentes no processo de construção e desconstrução da República Federativa Socialista da Iugoslávia. A partir da consideração dos conceitos de Charles Tilly sobre guerra e dominação, busca-se trazer a política e as relações internacionais para o centro da discussão sobre a questão iugoslava, a qual é comumente tratada apenas na perspectiva étnica. Assim, os principais fatos da trajetória iugoslava são pincelados à luz das estratégias político-econômicas dos grandes poderes mundiais em relação ao território balcânico. Para isso, analisa-se a criação e a dissolução da Iugoslávia pela ótica da teoria dos sistemas-mundo de Immanuel Wallerstein, para mostrar que a posição que este país ocupou no sistema mundial contemporâneo foi determinada pelos interesses estratégicos das grandes potências, que exerceram a dominação da região em termos políticos e econômicos. O propósito é mostrar que os principais pólos de poder do sistema-mundo da época incentivaram a criação do Estado iugoslavo em razão de interesses específicos, e instrumentalizaram o conflito étnico quando estes interesses já não mais existiam, com o fim da Guerra Fria e a queda do comunismo. / This study investigates the influence of the international system and its major components in the construction and dissolution of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Considering Charles Tilly’s concepts on war and domination, we try to bring politics and international relations to the center of the discussion on Yugoslavia, which is often treated solely from the ethnicity perspective. Thus, the main facts of Yugoslav history are brushed in light of the political-economic strategies of the great powers over the Balkans. We analyze the creation and dissolution of Yugoslavia from the perspective of Immanuel Wallerstein's worldsystems theory, in order to show that the position occupied by this country in the contemporary world system was determined by strategic interests of great powers which have dominated the region politically and economically. The purpose is to show that the major powers encouraged the establishment of the Yugoslav state due to their interests, and when these interests no longer existed, they instrumentalized the ethnic conflict in the end of the Cold War and the fall of communism.

O presente trabalho investiga a influência do sistema internacional e de seus principais componentes no processo de construção e desconstrução da República Federativa Socialista da Iugoslávia. A partir da consideração dos conceitos de Charles Tilly sobre guerra e dominação, busca-se trazer a política e as relações internacionais para o centro da discussão sobre a questão iugoslava, a qual é comumente tratada apenas na perspectiva étnica. Assim, os principais fatos da trajetória iugoslava são pincelados à luz das estratégias político-econômicas dos grandes poderes mundiais em relação ao território balcânico. Para isso, analisa-se a criação e a dissolução da Iugoslávia pela ótica da teoria dos sistemas-mundo de Immanuel Wallerstein, para mostrar que a posição que este país ocupou no sistema mundial contemporâneo foi determinada pelos interesses estratégicos das grandes potências, que exerceram a dominação da região em termos políticos e econômicos. O propósito é mostrar que os principais pólos de poder do sistema-mundo da época incentivaram a criação do Estado iugoslavo em razão de interesses específicos, e instrumentalizaram o conflito étnico quando estes interesses já não mais existiam, com o fim da Guerra Fria e a queda do comunismo. / This study investigates the influence of the international system and its major components in the construction and dissolution of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Considering Charles Tilly’s concepts on war and domination, we try to bring politics and international relations to the center of the discussion on Yugoslavia, which is often treated solely from the ethnicity perspective. Thus, the main facts of Yugoslav history are brushed in light of the political-economic strategies of the great powers over the Balkans. We analyze the creation and dissolution of Yugoslavia from the perspective of Immanuel Wallerstein's worldsystems theory, in order to show that the position occupied by this country in the contemporary world system was determined by strategic interests of great powers which have dominated the region politically and economically. The purpose is to show that the major powers encouraged the establishment of the Yugoslav state due to their interests, and when these interests no longer existed, they instrumentalized the ethnic conflict in the end of the Cold War and the fall of communism.

「避險」近年被認為是弱勢的中等國家爭取國家利益的最佳良策，然而這通常代表欲採此戰略選擇的國家，必須要同時與敵對的國家結成同盟，通常在經濟與安全領域的國家利益需求產生矛盾「悖論」，此間又以南韓在外交政策上的實踐最為顯著，本文將以朴槿惠主政下的南韓為例，探討在其「聯美和中」的外交平衡作法之下，受到地緣環境與傳統韓美同盟的制約的南韓，能否以此模糊的戰略選擇，兩面討好，達成獲取國家利益的最高政策目標。 / “Hedging Policy” is considered the best way to gain national interest for middle-power states in recent years. However, it means that state using this strategy has to cooperate or form an alliance with the enemy states. It usually known as a paradox to the security and economy issues of a state, and the most famous case is ROK. This article will take the ROK government led by president Park Geun-Hye for example, and discuss if the “Security issue rely on U.S., economy issue finds China” strategy did profit both from the two superpower in the world.