Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2006. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Kyoto protocol was signed early in 2005 whereby Annexure 1 industrialised countries committed to reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. South Africa signed the Protocol. however being a developing country it has no GHG emissions reduction target for the first commitment period until 2012. Primary aluminium is a GHG intensive global commodity to which Southem Africa contributes significantly. This dissertation aims to investigate how the profitability of the Southern African primary aluminium sector may be affected by Kyoto Protocol GHG restrictions even though the smelters are situated in non-Annexure 1 countries. A Delphi-type survey is conducted to gather opinions on identified pressures and drivers that could affect the industry. The survey respondents indicate that the greatest impact will occur from internal pressures from holding companies. Further pressure will originate from external sources namely government, Non Governmental Organisations, shareholders and investors. Direct manufacturing costs are not expected to increase as a result of the Protocol. Rather. industry changes are expected to be the result of internal and external pressures. Opportunities for Clean Development Mechanism (COM) projects are rated as highly importance and are strongly recommended. Various strategies are identified and presented in a matrix to compare the effect of each on the various identified pressures and drivers. From the matrix it is observed that the majority of the selected strategies have a profound impact on the internal and external pressures. From this research report it is recommended that a cooperative proactive strategy be followed . focusing initially on low cost GHG emissions reduction projects and rigorously pursuing COM projects. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Kyoto Protokol, waardeur Anneks 1 geindustraliseerde lande hul daartoe verbind het om hul kweekhuis gas (GHG) emissies te verminder, is vroeg in 2005 onderteken. Suidelike Afrika het die Protokol onderteken, maar weens sy status as ontwikkelende land, het dit geen GHG emissieverminderingsdoelwit vir die eerste verpligtingsfase tot en met 2012 nie. Primere aluminium is 'n GHG intensiewe globale kommoditeit waartoe Suidelike Afrika 'n groot bydrae lewer. Hierdie tesis poog om ondersoek in te stel na die impak van Protokol GHG beperkings op die winsgewendheid van die Suidelike Afrika primere aluminium sektor, ten spyle daarvan dat die smelters in nie-Annex 1 lande gelee is. 'n Delphi-tipe opname was geloods om opinies in te win oor geidentifiseerde drukpunte en drywers wat 'n impak kon he op die industrie. Die respondente het aangedui dat die grootste impak sal kom van interne druk van beheermaatskappye. Addisionele druk sal afkomstig wees van eksteme bronne soos die regering, Nie-regerings organisasies (NGO's), aandeelhouers en beleggers. Daar word nie verwag dat die direkte vervaardigingskoste sal eskaleer as gevolg van die Protokol nie. Daar word eerder verwag dat veranderinge in die industrie die gevolg sal wees van interne en eksterne druk. Geleenthede vir skoon-ontwikkelings meganisme (COM) projekte is geweldig belangrik en word sterk aanbeveel. Verskeie strategiee word geidentifiseer en voorgele in 'n matriks om sodoende 'n vergelyking te tref tussen die effek wat elk het op die onderskeie drukpunte en drywers. Uit die matriks kan afgelei word dat die meerderheid strategiee 'n diepgaande invloed het op die inteme en eksterne drukpunte. Hierdie navorsingsverslag beveel aan dat 'n samewerkende proaktiewe strategie gevolg word, wat aanvanklik sal fokus op lae-koste GHG emissieverminderingsprojekte, asook die nougesette najaag van CDM projekte.

In the dominantly small-scale subsistence agricultural system of Ethiopia, where most of the organic inputs are not returned to soil and land is not used based on its best suitability, the contribution of agriculture to climate change mitigation/adaptation through reduction of greenhouse gases emission is undermined. When this low-input agricultural practice is coupled with rugged topography, high population pressure, generally low soil fertility, and looming climate change, ensuring food and nutrition security of society as well as sustainable use of land resources is practically impossible. Under such circumstances, finding alternative land uses, through scientific investigation, that meet the triple mandates of climate-smart agriculture under current and future climate is imperative. In view of this, a study was conducted in Hades Sub-watershed, eastern Ethiopia, to evaluate the carbon stock of major land uses, evaluate suitability of land for rainfed production of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.), Maize (Zea mays L.), coffee (Coffea arabica), upland rice (Oryza sativa L.) and finger millet (Eleusine coracana L.), and project biomass production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties under changing climate and its contribution to carbon sequestration and reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission. Soil and vegetation samples were collected following recommended procedures. Secondary data on required crop parameters were collected for model calibration and validation in the biomass projection study made using the AquaCrop v6.0 model. Climate data of the study area was obtained from the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia and analyzed following standard procedures. Near-century (NC) (2017-2039) and Mid-century (MC) (2040-2069) climate was projected under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using four models (CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, ICHEC-EC-Earth, MOHC-HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and a Multi-model Ensemble. Biomass production projection, for the climate projected under the two emission scenarios using the four models and the ensemble, was made for late-maturing sorghum (Muyira-1) and maize (BH661) varieties. From the projected biomass, organic carbon and its equivalent CO2 were estimated. Furthermore, adaptation measures, involving adjusting planting dates and irrigation, under the changing climate were evaluated for their influence on biomass production under the time slices, RCPs, and models mentioned above. The carbon stock assessment study was conducted on four major land uses (cultivated, grazing, coffee agroforestry, and forest lands) identified in the study area. The land suitability assessment, using the maximum limitation method, study was conducted on four soil mapping units identified in the sub-watershed. Results indicate that total organic carbon stock (soil, litter plus live vegetation) in the sub-watershed ranged from 138.95 ton ha-1 in the crop land to 496.26 ton ha-1 in the natural forest. The soil organic carbon stock was found to be relatively higher than that of the vegetation carbon stock in the natural forest and coffee agroforestry land uses. The results of suitability evaluation revealed that the maximum current and potential (after corrective xix measures are taken) land suitability class for production of late-maturing sorghum (180-240 days cycle), maize (180-210 days crop cycle), finger millet (120 – 150 days cycle) and coffee in the sub-watershed is marginally suitable (S3c). The maximum current and potential land suitability for upland rice (120 days) is not suitable (N2c). The major permanent limiting factor is low mean temperature (14.6 C) of the growing period in the study area as compared to the optimum temperature required for optimum growth of the selected crops. The major soil and landscape limitations include steep slope, poor drainage of low-lying areas, shallow effective root zone in the upper slopes, low organic matter and available P for sorghum and maize, high pH for maize and wetness for coffee. In all the climate models and emission scenarios, minimum and maximum temperature increment is high during June-July-August-September (JJAS) compared with the other seasons. The modest rise in minimum temperature and the slight increment of maximum temperature during the crop growing seasons (February-March-April-May (FMAM) and JJAS will benefit late-maturing sorghum and maize production in the study area. For the same model, the projected biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration of the two crop varieties varied with time slice and the type of emission scenario used. Generally, increasing biomass production and carbon sequestration were projected for Mid-century (MC) than Near-century (NC) for most of the models used. Late planting would increase sorghum biomass yield and the corresponding organic carbon as compared to early planting as projected by most of the models under both RCPs. Most models predicted an increase in maize biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration if supplementary irrigation is used. The results of this study indicate that the current land uses are not enhancing carbon sequestration because of their exploitative nature and the soil/landscape and climate are not optimum for production of the crops studied. The rise in temperature in the coming 50 years is expected to create a more favorable condition for production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties. In order to enhance carbon sequestration, soil productivity and crop yield, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the current land uses and their management require re-visiting. / College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)

The pressing global demand to transform to a low-carbon business community, which is required by the urgency of mitigating climate change, significantly alters the operating procedures for carbon emitters and carbon revenue generators alike. Although agricultural activities are not considered as heavy carbon emission source, the increased public focus on climate change has catapulted the exploitation of sustainable agricultural land management mitigating strategies as intervention by the sector. Additionally, the focus on market-based mechanism to address climate change, which has led to the evolution of cap-and-trade schemes, makes the agricultural sector become a source of low-cost carbon offsets. However, the fact that cap-and-trade schemes in the agricultural sector are voluntary has resulted into not only very diverse farming practices but also diverse accounting practices. The consequences of the diversity practices are that, the impacts on financial performance and position are not comparable. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to investigate the recognition, measurement and disclosure for cap-and-trade schemes in the agricultural sectors This study was conducted through literature reviews and empirical test. A qualitative research approach utilising constructivist methodology was employed. Primary data was collected in Kenya by administering three sets of semi-structured questionnaires to drafters of financial statements, loan officers and financial consultants. Secondary data involved content analysis of financial statements and reports of listed entities across the globe. It was established that proper accounting for cap-and-trade schemes adaptation activities is critical to the success of an entity’s environmental portfolio. Additionally, a model for valuing an organisation's carbon capture potential as suggested by this study enables entities to better report the impact of the adaptation activities on the financial performance and financial position. The outcome of this study enables entities to integrate the carbon capture potential on an entity sustainability reporting framework. / Colleges of Economic and Management Sciences / D. Phil. (Accounting Science)

Energie und Rohstoffe auf Basis von Biomasse gelten als wichtiger Beitrag, um den anthropogen begründeten Klimawandel zu mindern. Diese publikationsbasierte Arbeit analysiert, inwiefern Aussagen über Vorzüglichkeit von Biomassenutzung im direkten Vergleich oder auch in komplexeren wirtschaftlichen Nutzungssystemen durch Unsicherheiten in den Treibhausgasemissionen (THG) oder durch die Anwendung der Bewertungsmethodik beeinflusst werden. Eine Fallstudie zur stationären Biostromerzeugung aus der Vergasung von Pappelhackschnitzeln zeigte mittels Monte-Carlo-Analyse, dass dieser Biostrom trotz Unsicherheiten weniger THG emittiert bzw. sogar Kohlendioxid sequestrieren könnte. Die zweite Fallstudie analysierte Biomassenutzung im Systemzusammenhang. Sie bezog neben THG-Emissionen als Bewertungskriterien sowohl den Bedarf an Agrarfläche als auch an fossilen Ressourcen mit ein. Für das Beispiel der Häuserdämmung mittels Hanffasern oder Styropor konnte aus den drei Kriterien auch unter Berücksichtigung mehrerer Szenarien keine eindeutige Vorzugslösung der Biomassenutzung abgeleitet werden. Basierend auf dem Produktivitätskonzept stellt der dritte Beitrag mit CUDe (Carbon Utilization Degree) einen Ansatz vor, wie die Nutzungseffizienz des in der Biomasse bereitgestellten Kohlenstoffs bewertet werden könnte. THG-Minderungsrechnungen erfordern eine fundierte Kenntnis der Methode als auch des Produktionssystems in seinem regionalen Kontext. Als Landnutzungseffekte sollten neben Änderungen im Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt auch Unterschiede in Lachgas-Hintergrundemissionen von annuellen gegenüber mehrjährigen Kulturen berücksichtigt werden. Trade-Offs sprechen dafür, Biomassenutzungssysteme nicht nur hinsichtlich Klimawirksamkeit zu optimieren. Ergänzend könnte Kohlenstoff auch als Ressource betrachtet und mit Effizienzkriterien bewertet werden. Biomassenutzung ließe sich so optimieren, dass gemeinsam mit Klimaschutz weitere aktuelle Handlungsfelder adressiert werden. / Biomass-based energy and materials are considered important for the mitigation of human-induced climate change and as relevant bioeconomic feedstock. This publication-based dissertation aims to contribute to the discussion about the reliability of mitigation assessment of biomass applications in an increasingly bio-based, low-carbon economy that also fulfils sustainability constraints of resource conservation. It analysed how preference of biomass use in direct comparison as well as in larger economic context is affected by single uncertainties as well as by mitigation calculation methods. A case study on stationary bioelectricity generation from poplar wood chip gasification with a Monte Carlo approach showed that such bioelectricity could emit less greenhouse gases (GHG) or even sequester carbon despite existing uncertainties. The second case study analysed biomass use in a systemic context. Besides GHG emissions also resource demand of cropland and fossil fuels were used to assess two strategies to isolate buildings. From the three criteria, none of the strategies would clearly be preferred. The third case study presented an approach to assess the efficiency of biomass carbon use (CUDe; Carbon Utilization Degree) and applied it exemplarily to a biogas and a hemp insulation system. GHG mitigation analyses of biomass use must be performed with profound knowledge of the methodology and the biomass system in its regional context. In land use change assessment, emissions resulting from deviating nitrous oxide baselines from annual and perennial crops should be considered in addition to carbon stock changes. Optimization of biomass applications only with respect to GHG emissions (or other single criteria) might overlook trade-offs. However, multi-criteria analyses might yield ambiguous results. A resource-efficient viewpoint on biogenic carbon use instead of its sole GHG implications might help to foster a transformation to bio-based, low-carbon economies.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)