The topic of convergence in real GDP per capita has become a very sensitive issue, its results often depending on how the sample group, time period, estimation approach and theoretical concept are chosen. This dissertation presents a study and a convenient explanation of the Mankiw, Romer and Weil's (1992) augmentation of the Solow's (1956) neoclassical growth model and its subsequent empirical application to the EU27 over the period 1970-2010. The application is based on the convergence models designed by the Augmented Solow's model and studies convergence speed and patterns among the EU27 countries. The evidence indicates that the pace of convergence within the EU27 is much slower than what the model predicts. Nevertheless, the analysis shows that an increase in human capital has a stronger impact on per capita GDP and, by extension, on convergence than a similar increase in physical capital.

Neste trabalho de tese, estudamos o modelo de crescimento logístico de populações biológicas utilizando a abordagem de espaço de estados. Os estados não observados são as biomassas anuais, a equação de observação é linear e a equação de estado é não linear. As distribuições de probabilidade utilizadas para os termos de erro de observação aditivos são: Normal, t-student, Skew-normal e Skew-t. As distribuições Log-normal, Log-t, Log-skew-normal e Log-skew-t são consideradas para os erros de observação multiplicativos. A inferência nos modelos é realizada considerando-se métodos Bayesianos e as distribuições a posterior de interesse são aproximadas utilizando-se algoritmos MCMC e a aproximação de Laplace. Apresentamos duas aplicações, a primeira referente a pesca de camarão marinho na costa do Chile, na qual a variável observável é o rendimento médio anual de pesca (captura por unidade de esforço média). Na segunda é considerada a pesca de lagostim vermelho na costa de Chile, na qual além do rendimento médio anual da pesca, observa-se as estimativas anuais de biomassa vulnerável, obtidas através de estudos de área varrida. Para o primeiro conjunto de dados, os modelos com erros de observação multiplicativos têm melhor performance, particularmente os modelos Log-skew-normal e Log-skew-t. Considerando estes resultados, no segundo caso utilizamos somente erros multiplicativos e a distribuição a posteriori preditiva mostra que cada variável observável parece ter sua própria família de distribuição de probabilidades. Além disso, os resultados também revelam uma crescente complexidade do modelo ao incorporar a classe mais geral de distribuições assimétricas. / We study the logistic population growth model using a state-space approach. The non observable states are the annual biomass of the population with a linear observation equation and a non-linear state equation. The probability distribution used for the additives observation error terms are Normal, Student-t, Skew-normal and Skew-t, and Log-normal, Log-t, Log-skew-normal and Log-skew-t for multiplicative observation errors terms. The inference about the parameters of the models is performed using Bayesian methods, with MCMC algorithms and Laplace approximations. We present two applications to real data sets. The first in marine shrimp population off the coast of Chile, where observable variable is the average annual fishing yield. The second application is for the population of the red squat lobster off Chile, where in addition to the average annual fishing yield, a second observable variable was included. In the first case, the multiplicative observational errors models presented the best results. Particularly the Log-skew-normal and Log-skew-t models has the better performances. Considering these results, in the second application we use only multiplicative observation errors models.

Forests are a key resource serving a multitude of functions such as providing income to forest owners, supplying industries with timber, protecting water resources, and maintaining biodiversity. Recently much attention has been given to the role of forests in the global carbon cycle and their management for increased carbon sequestration as a possible mitigation option against climate change. Furthermore, the use of harvested wood can contribute to the reduction of atmospheric carbon through (i) carbon sequestration in wood products, (ii) the substitution of non-wood products with wood products, and (iii) through the use of wood as a biofuel to replace fossil fuels. Forest resource managers are challenged by the task to balance these multiple while simultaneously meeting economic requirements and taking into consideration the demands of stakeholder groups. Additionally, risks and uncertainties with regard to uncontrollable external variables such as climate have to be considered in the decision making process. In this study a scientific stakeholder dialogue with forest-related stakeholder groups in the Federal State of Brandenburg was accomplished. The main results of this dialogue were the definition of major forest functions (carbon sequestration, groundwater recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) and priority setting among them by the stakeholders using the pair-wise comparison technique. The impact of different forest management strategies and climate change scenarios on the main functions of forest ecosystems were evaluated at the Kleinsee management unit in south-east Brandenburg. Forest management strategies were simulated over 100 years using the forest growth model 4C and a wood product model (WPM). A current climate scenario and two climate change scenarios based on global circulation models (GCMs) HadCM2 and ECHAM4 were applied. The climate change scenario positively influenced stand productivity, carbon sequestration, and income. The impact on the other forest functions was small. Furthermore, the overall utility of forest management strategies were compared under the priority settings of stakeholders by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. Significant differences in priority setting and the choice of an adequate management strategy were found for the environmentalists on one side and the more economy-oriented forest managers of public and private owned forests on the other side. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions. The analysis served as an example for the combined application of simulation tools and a MCA method for the evaluation of management strategies under multi-purpose and multi-user settings with changing climatic conditions. Another focus was set on quantifying the overall effect of forest management on carbon sequestration in the forest sector and the wood industry sector plus substitution effects. To achieve this objective, the carbon emission reduction potential of material and energy substitution (Smat and Sen) was estimated based on a literature review. On average, for each tonne of dry wood used in a wood product substituting a non-wood product, 0.71 fewer tonnes of fossil carbon are emitted into to the atmosphere. Based on Smat and Sen, the calculation of the carbon emission reduction through substitution was implemented in the WPM. Carbon sequestration and substitution effects of management strategies were simulated at three local scales using the WPM and the forest growth models 4C (management unit level) or EFISCEN (federal state of Brandenburg and Germany). An investigation was conducted on the influence of uncertainties in the initialisation of the WPM, Smat, and basic conditions of the wood product sector on carbon sequestration. Results showed that carbon sequestration in the wood industry sector plus substitution effects exceeded sequestration in the forest sector. In contrast to the carbon pools in the forest sector, which acted as sink or source, the substitution effects continually reduced carbon emission as long as forests are managed and timber is harvested. The main climate protection function was investigated for energy substitution which accounted for about half of the total carbon sequestration, followed by carbon storage in landfills. In Germany, the absolute annual carbon sequestration in the forest and wood industry sector plus substitution effects was 19.9 Mt C. Over 50 years the wood industry sector contributed 70% of the total carbon sequestration plus substitution effects. / Wälder beeinflussen in vielfältiger Weise unser Leben. Für den Waldbesitzer sind sie Einkommensquelle, die Holzindustrie versorgen sie mit dem Rohstoff, aus dem unzählige Dinge für den täglichen Bedarfs hergestellt werden, wie zum Beispiel Baumaterialien, Möbel, Gartengeräte, Spielzeug und Papier. Außerdem versorgen Wälder uns mit sauberem Grundwasser, sind Lebensraum für Pflanzen und Tiere und tragen somit zum Erhalt der Artenvielfalt bei. Nicht zuletzt beeinflussen Wälder das Klimasystem, da sie der Atmosphäre das Treibhausgas CO2 entziehen und Kohlenstoff in Biomasse und Boden speichern. Förster stehen nun vor der anspruchsvollen Aufgabe, eine Balance zwischen den vielfältigen und oft auch gegensätzlichen Waldfunktionen zu finden und die Ansprüche von Interessengruppen wahrzunehmen. Zusätzlich müssen im waldbaulichen Entscheidungsprozess Risiken und Unsicherheiten durch unberechenbare externe Faktoren, wie das Klima, beachtet werden. Ziel der Arbeit war es, den Einfluss von Klima und Waldbaustrategien auf Waldfunktionen zu untersuchen. Als Testgebiet fungierte das Revier Kleinsee im Südosten Brandenburgs, in dem Kiefern- und Eichenbestände vorherrschen. In einem wissenschaftlichen Dialog mit Angestellten der Forstbehörde, Privatwaldbesitzern, Vertretern von Naturschutzverbänden sowie Wissenschaftlern definierten die Teilnehmer die wichtigsten Waldfunktionen: Kohlenstoffspeicherung, Grundwasserneubildung, Biodiversität und Holzproduktion. Die Simulationen wurden mit Hilfe des Waldwachstumsmodells 4C und einem neu implementierten Holzproduktmodell (WPM) über einen Zeitraum von 100 Jahren durchgeführt. Dabei wurden den heutigen Klimabedingungen zwei Klimaänderungsszenarien gegenübergestellt, die auf den globalen Zirkulationsmodellen HadCM2 und ECHAM4 basieren. Es stellte sich heraus, dass unter den angenommenen Klimaänderungen das Wachstum der Bestände steigt und sich damit die Kohlenstoffspeicherung und der Ertrag aus Holzernten erhöht, wohingegen Biodiversität und Grundwasserneubildung nur sehr gering beeinflusst werden. Der Nutzen der Waldbewirtschaftungsstrategien für drei Interessensgruppen (Forstbehörde, private Waldbesitzer, Naturschutzvereine) wurde mit einer multikriteriellen Analysemethode bewertet. Dabei unterschieden sich die Rangfolge und Gewichtung der einzelnen Waldfunktionen sowie die daraus resultierende Wahl der Waldbaustrategien zwischen den Naturschützern einerseits sowie den stärker ökonomisch orientierten Landeswaldförstern und privaten Waldbesitzern anderseits. Naturschutzvereine bevorzugen das Einstellen der Waldbewirtschaftung, aber auch die aktuelle Waldbaustrategie, mit mäßiger Durchforstungsintensität und einem hohen Anteil an Eichenbeständen entspricht ihren Zielsetzungen. Dagegen lag die Präferenz der Landeswaldförster sowie privaten Waldbesitzer auf einer Walbaustrategie mit einem hohen Anteil an Kiefernbeständen, um den Ertrag unter Beachtung der anderen Waldfunktionen zu steigern. Als Fazit geht aus dieser Teilstudie hervor, dass die Bewertung von Waldbaustrategien hinsichtlich ihrer Eignung für eine multifunktionale Waldbewirtschaftung unter Beachtung von Ansprüchen verschiedener Interessengruppen und ungewissen klimatischen Bedingungen unter Verwendung von 4C und einer multikriteriellen Analysemethode sehr gut möglich ist. Besonderes Augenmerk galt dem Einfluss von Waldbaustrategien auf den Kohlenstoffkreislauf, wobei nicht nur die Kohlenstoffspeicherung im Wald, sondern auch in Holzprodukten, sowie die Verringerung von CO2-Emissionen durch energetische und stoffliche Nutzung von Holz betrachtet wurden. Die potentielle Reduktion von CO2-Emissionen durch das Ersetzen von Erzeugnissen und Energie aus nicht nachwachsenden Rohstoffen durch Holz (Smat und Sen) wurde basierend auf Daten verschiedener Studien geschätzt. Eine Sensitivitätsanalyse untersuchte Unsicherheiten bei der Initialisierung des WPMs und der Berechung von Smat. Verschiedene Szenarien führten zu einem besseren Verständnis dafür, wie sich Änderungen im Energiesektor und Holzproduktsektor auf das Potential, Kohlenstoff zu speichern bzw. CO2-Emissionen zu verringen auswirken. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Reduzierung von CO2-Emissionen im Holzproduktsektor durch die Nutzung von Holz als Werkstoff und Brennstoff höher ist als durch die Akkumulation von Kohlenstoff im Wald. Im Gegensatz zu den Kohlenstoffspeichern im Wald, die sowohl Quellen als auch Senken sein können, werden durch die Nutzung von Holz CO2-Emissionen verringert, solange im Zuge der Waldbewirtschaftung Holz für die Weiterverarbeitung zur Verfügung gestellt wird. Simulationen auf Bundesebene ergaben, dass in Deutschland die Forst- und Holzwirtschaft jährlich dazu beitragen die CO2-Emissionen um 19,9 Mt Kohlenstoff zu verringern, wobei 70% auf die Holzindustrie und den Substitutionseffekt entfallen.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of financial markets and institutions on the economical growth of a developing country. The IRS (interest rate spread) is used as the main tool, to examine Chile and Taiwan regarding their economical growth between 1988 and 2007. The reason Taiwan and Chile have been chosen is due to vast differences in the geographical location, and even divergence in political and economical system of these countries. The research method that has been chosen for this thesis is a quantitative method. The economic theory is mainly based on secondary data. The method of data presentation and analysis are manly descriptive even though the layout of the thesis is more of an explanation research. The carculations are made with the statictical computer program SPSS. The results of the study are expressed mathematically and in sets of tables. In order to determinate the correlation between IRS and macroeconomic factors and the correlation between IRS and Economy growth, the magnitude and trend of the IRS is analysed from 1988 to 2007. To test the hypothesis, the OLS regression and panel data model is used. The theoretical part is the base of the empirical part. The theoretical part is needed in order to understand and later on analyze the results from research on Chile and Taiwan. Different aspects of economical growth are defined to make it easier to understand and follow the thesis thoroughly. The financial markets and institutions are discussed very shortly. To understand the growth theory, Solow growth model is discussed, which is one of the most important models concerning the economical growth. The empirical part of the thesis is dealing with the test of IRS against some macro economical factors such as; costumer price index (CPI), Exchange Rate (EX), Export Volume (EXP) and Money Supply (MO) of two different countries; Taiwan and Chile. The study provides evidence of the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomical factors. The result shows that the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomics factors vary from country to country. This mainly depends on the difference in political situation, the different economic and political policies of various goverments, the high inflation rates and the market structure of the countries. The value of the coefficients gives the magnitude of adjustment in the event that the systems move out of equilibrium. It also provides some evidence that there is a significant relationship between interst rate spread and economical growth. The test results show clearly that in order to gain a sustainable development and economical growth the financial markets must perform well.

This dissertation comprises two essays. The first essay explores how the size of government, as measured by the level of spending, affects growth. Theoretical models suggest a nonlinear relationship; however, testing this hypothesis empirically in cross-country studies is complicated by the endogeneity of government spending and the accurate identification of turning points. This paper examines the nonlinear hypothesis by incorporating threshold analysis in a cross-country growth regression. Using a broad panel of countries over the period 1971-2005, the results show evidence in favor of a nonlinear effect, but not of the form predicted by theory. When total government spending is low, there is no statistically significant effect on economic growth. However, after passing a certain threshold government spending exhibits a negative effect on growth. The second essay develops a dynamic macroeconomic model to explore how variations in the composition and financing of government expenditures affect economic growth in the long-run. The model is used to analyze how public investment spending funded by taxes or borrowing affects long-term output growth. The model is calibrated to reflect economic conditions in the seven largest Latin American economies during the period 1990 to 2008. We find that, where tax rates are not already high, funding public investment by raising taxes may increase long-run growth. If existing tax rates are high, then public investment is only growth-enhancing if funded by restructuring the composition of public spending. Interestingly, using debt to finance new public investment compromises growth, regardless of the initial fiscal condition.

The concept of dynamic programming was originally used in late 1949, mostly during the 1950s, by Richard Bellman to describe decision making problems. By 1952, he refined this to the modern meaning, referring specifically to nesting smaller decision problems inside larger decisions. Also, the Bellman equation, one of the basic concepts in dynamic programming, is named after him. Dynamic programming has become an important argument which was used in various fields; such as, economics, finance, bioinformatics, aerospace, information theory, etc. Since Richard Bellman's invention of dynamic programming, economists and mathematicians have formulated and solved a huge variety of sequential decision making problems both in deterministic and stochastic cases; either finite or infinite time horizon. This thesis is comprised of five chapters where the major objective is to study both deterministic and stochastic dynamic programming models in finance. In the first chapter, we give a brief history of dynamic programming and we introduce the essentials of theory. Unlike economists, who have analyzed the dynamic programming on discrete, that is, periodic and continuous time domains, we claim that trading is not a reasonably periodic or continuous act. Therefore, it is more accurate to demonstrate the dynamic programming on non-periodic time domains. In the second chapter we introduce time scales calculus. Moreover, since it is more realistic to analyze a decision maker’s behavior without risk aversion, we give basics of Stochastic Calculus in this chapter. After we introduce the necessary background, in the third chapter we construct the deterministic dynamic sequence problem on isolated time scales. Then we derive the corresponding Bellman equation for the sequence problem. We analyze the relation between solutions of the sequence problem and the Bellman equation through the principle of optimality. We give an example of the deterministic model in finance with all details of calculations by using guessing method, and we prove uniqueness and existence of the solution by using the Contraction Mapping Theorem. In the fourth chapter, we define the stochastic dynamic sequence problem on isolated time scales. Then we derive the corresponding stochastic Bellman equation. As in the deterministic case, we give an example in finance with the distributions of solutions.

The world today is confronted by the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of 1920’s. Due to the financial system being globalised and interdependent, the contagion effects of the financial crisis trickled down to Europe and ultimately triggered the recession of 2007-2009, which had far-reaching repercussions on cross-border economic activities. The severe international downturn had a significant effect on the Swedish economy and Swedish SMEs. Moreover, the recession has heightened economic uncertainty and combined with the existing challenges facing SMEs, created one of the most difficult business climates in decades, hence, a prevailing need for creating resilience. The purpose of this study is to examine how Swedish Internationalised SMEs remain resilient during times of recession. This will be studied through investigating what resources and capabilities were crucial for building resilience and how the SMEs changed their strategy during the recession to remain resilient. The study is conducted through a qualitative case study and an abductive approach in order to get a profound insight into the firm’s behaviour. The theoretical framework is founded on the area of strategy and resilience, by accounting for strategy formulation, the RBV, resilience and strategic change. Moreover, the empirical chapter presents the results of the data gathered from the six case companies and is structured according to the companies and the three research problems. In the analysis, the patterns emerging from the theoretical framework and the empirical data is analysed based on the three research problems through trying to understand the underlying reasons for the emerging patterns. The study conclude that Swedish internationalized SMEs remained resilient during the recession of 2007- 2009, through reconfiguring its critical resources and capabilities, and changing their strategy to adapt to the changes in the external environment caused by the recession.

This thesis is an exploration on the growth and profitability models of Internet enterprises. Via literature review and interview with experts ,we try to answer the following questions: 1.What's the vision of Internet? 2.How Internet enterprises expand and grow? 3.How to earn profits? And how to generate the synergy by connecting them with each other? 4.Are there any ways to maintain continuous growth and profitability? From the general influence diagram of Heijden, we could believe that knowledge management is the basis of growth, value chain is the gravity center of development, and continuous innovation is the driver of growth. However, the main actions to make external growth are strategic alliance and M&A, and they are also the fastest ways to expand the scale of business. Furthermore, our research also finds that there are ten profit models with respect to dot com companies. They are (1)Customer Solutions Profit, (2)Value Chain Position Profit , (3)Time Profit , (4)Specialization Profit, (5)Brand Profit , (6)New Product Profit , (7)Switchboard Profit , (8)Blockbuster Profit, (9)Patronize Profit ,and (10)Returns Sharing Model¡C Every dot com company could select 2 or 3 models to manage her business and make profits. For network ecology being continuously changeable, every company could develop suitable profit models according to her management character. Finally, by analyzing that how SOFTBANK CO., a venture capital, expands her Netbatsu kingdom, we conclude that cooperation between dot com companies is the best way to survive and grow stronger.

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<p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of financial markets and institutions on the economical growth of a developing country. The IRS (interest rate spread) is used as the main tool, to examine Chile and Taiwan regarding their economical growth between 1988 and 2007. The reason Taiwan and Chile have been chosen is due to vast differences in the geographical location, and even divergence in political and economical system of these countries.</p><p>The research method that has been chosen for this thesis is a quantitative method. The economic theory is mainly based on secondary data. The method of data presentation and analysis are manly descriptive even though the layout of the thesis is more of an explanation research. The carculations are made with the statictical computer program SPSS. The results of the study are expressed mathematically and in sets of tables. In order to determinate the correlation between IRS and macroeconomic factors and the correlation between IRS and Economy growth, the magnitude and trend of the IRS is analysed from 1988 to 2007. To test the hypothesis, the OLS regression and panel data model is used.</p><p>The theoretical part is the base of the empirical part. The theoretical part is needed in order to understand and later on analyze the results from research on Chile and Taiwan. Different aspects of economical growth are defined to make it easier to understand and follow the thesis thoroughly. The financial markets and institutions are discussed very shortly. To understand the growth theory, Solow growth model is discussed, which is one of the most important models concerning the economical growth.</p><p>The empirical part of the thesis is dealing with the test of IRS against some macro economical factors such as; costumer price index (CPI), Exchange Rate (EX), Export Volume (EXP) and Money Supply (MO) of two different countries; Taiwan and Chile. The study provides evidence of the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomical factors. The result shows that the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomics factors vary from country to country. This mainly depends on the difference in political situation, the different economic and political policies of various goverments, the high inflation rates and the market structure of the countries. The value of the coefficients gives the magnitude of adjustment in the event that the systems move out of equilibrium. It also provides some evidence that there is a significant relationship between interst rate spread and economical growth. The test results show clearly that in order to gain a sustainable development and economical growth the financial markets must perform well.</p>