Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have been widely used in evaluation of the goodness of the diagnostic method in many study fields, such as disease diagnosis in medicine. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) naturally became one of the most used variables in gauging the goodness of the diagnosis (Mossman, Somoza 1991). Since medical diagnosis often is not dichotomous, the ROC curve and AUC need to be generalized to a multi-dimensional case. The generalization of AUC to multi-class case has been studied by many researchers in the past decade. Most recently, Nakas & Yiannoutsos (2004) considered the ordered d classes ROC analysis by only considering the sensitivities of each class. Hence, their dimension is only d. Cha (2005) considered more types of mis-classification in the ordered multiple-class case, but reduced the dimension of Ferri, at.el. from d(d-1) to 2(d-1). In this dissertation we are trying to adjust and calculate the VUS for an ordered multipleclass with Cha’s 2(d-1)-dimension method. Our methodology of finding the VUS is introduced. We present the method of adjusting and calculating VUS and their statistical inferences for the 2(d-1)-dimension. Some simulation results are included and a real example will be presented. Intellectual outcomes in pediatric brain-tumor patients were investigated in a prospective longitudinal study. The Standard-Binet Intelligence Scale-Fourth Edition (SB-IV) Standard Age Score (SAS) and Composite intelligence quotient (IQ) score are examined as cognitive outcomes in pediatric brain-tumor patients. Treatment factors, patient factors and time since diagnosis are taken into account as the risk factors. Hierarchical linear/quadratic models and Gompertz based hierarchical nonlinear growth models were applied to build linear and nonlinear longitudinal curves. We use PRESS and Volume Under the Surface (VUS) as the criterions to compare these two methods. Some model interpretations are presented in this dissertation.

Lietuvoje vyrauja dideli ir augantys tarpregioniniai skirtumai, kurie matomi ne tik tarp pirmaujančių ir atsiliekančių regionų, bet ir tarp regionų lyderių. Todėl iškyla dilema ar regioninė politika suformuluota ir nukreipta taip, kad ateityje bus pajėgi ne tik skatinti regionų plėtrą, bet ir mažinti netolygumus. Regiono plėtra yra sudėtingas procesas, kuriam suprasti ir paaiškinti tikslinga naudoti ekonominius modelius. Iš ekonominių modelių įvairovės darbe pasirinkta naudoti pritaikytą regionų augimui neoklasikinį augimo modelį, nes būtent šis modelis aiškina regionų netolygaus augimo priežastis, vietinių išteklių pagrindu. Darbą sudaro dvi dalys. Pirmoje dalyje „Regioninė plėtra ir regioninė politika: teoriniai ir taikomieji aspektai“ aprašomos regiono ir regioninės plėtros koncepcijos, teorijos, žmogiškųjų išteklių, kapitalo ir technologijų pažangos įtaka regionų vystymuisi. Šioje dalyje pateikiami regioninės politikos pagrindiniai teoriniai aspektai bei aprašomos regioninės politikos priemonės regionų plėtrai skatinti. Antroje darbo dalyje „Vilniaus ir Alytaus regionų plėtros tyrimas“ socialinių-ekonominių rodiklių pagalba įvertinama Vilniaus ir Alytaus regionų sanglauda ir techninės pažangos augimo modelio pagrindu identifikuojamos netolygaus regionų augimo priežastys. Be to, analizuojama Lietuvos regioninė politika, politikos tikslai ir įgyvendinimo priemonių efektyvumas. Šioje darbo dalyje išskiriama Lietuvos regionų augimo skatinimo specifika, analizuojama Europos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Regional development becomes important issue of the European Union and Lithuania regional politics, because only developed region can entrench the secured position in the globalized world. Moreover, regional development is closely related with people and their well-being. In order to achieve this, stable and coordinated regional development is needed. This should be done by integrating effective regional policy instruments. Regional development is complexible process. So, economical models is needed and used to explain regional development. From variety of economical models the neoclassical growth model was chosen to explore the causes of widening regional growth disparities. The work consists of two parts. The first part deals with general theoretical and adaptable aspects of the region, its development as well as the regional growth and development models for regional development. In this part the explanation of impact of human resources, capital and technical progress is given. Also, this part proposes the theoretical overview about regional policy, including the conception of regional policy, the instruments which influence regional development. In the second part economical and social indicators are used for analysis of Vilnius and Alytus regions, the convergence of regions is evaluated and regional growth disparities between Vilnius and Alytus regions is evaluated by using neoclassical growth model. The second part analyzes the regional policy and its goals of... [to full text]

This study compares four recently developed decline curve methods and the traditional Arps or Fetkovich approach. The four methods which are empirically formulated for shale and tight gas wells are: 1. Power Law Exponential Decline (PLE). 2. Stretched Exponential Decline (SEPD). 3. Duong Method. 4. Logistic Growth Model (LGM). Each method has different tuning parameters and equation forms. The main objective of this work is to determine the best method(s) in terms of Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) accuracy, goodness of fit, and ease of matching. In addition, these methods are compared against each other at different production times in order to understand the effect of production time on forecasts. As a part of validation process, all methods are benchmarked against simulation. This study compares the decline methods to four simulation cases which represent the common shale declines observed in the field. Shale wells, which are completed with horizontal wells and multiple traverse highly-conductive hydraulic fractures, exhibit long transient linear flow. Based on certain models, linear flow is preceded by bilinear flow if natural fractures are present. In addition to this, linear flow is succeeded by Boundary Dominated Flow (BDF) decline when pressure wave reaches boundary. This means four declines are possible, hence four simulation cases are required for comparison. To facilitate automatic data fitting, a non-linear regression program was developed using excel VBA. The program optimizes the Least-Square (LS) objective function to find the best fit. The used optimization algorithm is the Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm (LMA) and it is used because of its robustness and ease of use. This work shows that all methods forecast different EURs and some fit certain simulation cases better than others. In addition, no method can forecast EUR accurately without reaching BDF. Using this work, engineers can choose the best method to forecast EUR after identifying the simulation case that is most analogous to their field wells. The VBA program and the matching procedure presented here can help engineers automate these methods into their forecasting sheets.

本研究之目的是檢驗因應與創傷後成長隨時間變化的相互關聯性，除了重複驗證因應與創傷後成長的時序關係之外，考量創傷後成長不同向度之間可能具有不同特性，本研究也進一步探討不同向度的創傷後成長與不同因應向度之間的關係是否有所差異。創傷後成長方面，除了將創傷後成長視為單一構念之外，以Ho等人(2013)針對台灣女性乳癌樣本之因素分析結果為基礎，將創傷後成長初步分為個體內PTG與個體間PTG；因應向度方面，則根據探索性因素分析之結果將因應策略分為自我導向式因應、社會導向式因應和逃避因應等三個因應向度。 本研究採用縱貫研究法，針對中部某教學醫院之初診斷女性乳癌患者進行為期兩年的追蹤研究，分別在術後三個月(T1)、術後半年(T2)、術後一年(T3)以及術後兩年(T4)進行調查，測量參與者在癌症壓力之後所使用的因應策略及創傷後成長，最後完成四個時間點測量的研究參與者共283人。統計分析方法方面，因考量因應與創傷後成長會隨時間而變動的可能性，故採用適合縱貫資料且能估計變項發展軌跡的潛在成長模式 (Latent growth model) 來進行資料分析。 研究結果顯示不同向度的因應與不同向度的創傷後成長之間關聯性不同，但此差異是反映在不同因應向度之間，至於相同因應與不同向度PTG之間的結果則無太大差異：在測量初始點，不管是哪一種因應方式，都跟整體PTG、不同向度PTG具有交互預測的關係，但在斜率方面，只有自我導向因應與整體PTG以及不同向度的PTG具有相互預測性。但是否區分個體內PTG和個體間PTG，對於因應與創傷後成長之關聯性結果差異不大。過去對於PTG是單一構念或多因素的爭論方興未艾，後續討論也納入是否有必要區分創傷後成長不同向度的必要性，最後討論本研究之限制，並提供未來研究可供參考之方向。 / Aims: The purpose of this article was to examine the time-varying reciprocal relationships between coping and posttraumatic growth (PTG) as well as their domains. PTG was divided into two dimensions－intrapersonal PTG (intra-PTG) and interpersonal PTG (inter-PTG) as suggested in Ho et al. (2013) while coping was divided into self-sufficient coping, socially-supported coping, and avoidant copingbased on the results of our exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Methods: Participants were Taiwanese women underwent surgery for breast cancer. Measures of PTG and coping were assessed at three-month, six-month, one-year and two-year. Of the 358 women who were recruited, 283 completed all four measures and were included in the analyses. As coping and PTG may change over time, the data was analyzed using latent growth curve model (LGM). Results: Our results showed that there’re different relationships between coping strategies and PTG dimensions. At the initial measure, all kinds of coping strategies have a reciprocal relationship with PTGs, but when it comes to the directions between slopes of coping and PTG, only self-sufficient coping has a reciprocal relationship with PTG. There’s almost no difference while comparing different PTG dimensions models. In other words, there’s almost no difference in LGM models between intra-PTG and inter-PTG. In the end of the study, the necessity of the division of PTG and limitations of this study were discussed.

Cette thèse contient quatre travaux sur le modèle d'Agrégation Limitée par Diffusion Interne (iDLA), qui est un modèle de croissance pour la construction récursive d'ensembles aléatoires. Le premier travail concerne la dimension 1 et étudie le cas où les marches aléatoires formant l'agrégat évoluent dans un milieu aléatoire. L'agrégat normalisé converge alors non pas vers une forme limite déterministe comme dans le cas de marches aléatoires simples mais converge en loi vers un segment contenant l'origine dont les extrémités suivent la loi de l'Arcsinus. Dans le deuxième travail, on considère le cas où l'agrégat est formé par des marches aléatoires simples en dimension d > 1. On donne alors des résultats de convergence et de fluctuations sur la fonction odomètre introduite par Levine et Peres, qui compte en chaque point le nombre de passages des marches ayant formé l'agrégat. Dans le troisième travail, on s'intéresse au cas où l'agrégat est formé par des marches aléatoires multidimensionnelles qui ne sont pas centrées. On montre que sous une normalisation appropriée, l'agrégat converge vers une forme limite qui s'identifie à une vraie boule de chaleur. Nous répondons ainsi à une question ouverte en analyse concernant l'existence d'une telle boule bornée. Le quatrième travail concerne le cas particulier où une borne intérieure est connue pour l'agrégat. On donne alors des conditions suffisantes sur le graphe ainsi que sur la nature de cette borne pour qu'elle implique une borne extérieure. Ce résultat est appliqué au cas de marches évoluant sur un amas de percolation par arêtes surcritique, complétant ainsi un résultat de Shellef. / This thesis contains four works on the Internal Diffusion Limited Aggregation model (iDLA), which is a growth model that recursively builds random sets. The first work is set in dimension 1 and studies the case where the random walks that build the aggregate evolve in a random environment. The normalised aggregate then does not converges towards a deterministic limiting shape as it is the case for simple random walks, but converges in law towards a segment that contains the origin and which extremal points follow the Arcsine law. In the second work, we consider the case where the aggregate is built by simple random walks in dimension d > 1. We give convergence and fluctuation results on the odometer function introduced by Levine and Peres, which counts at each point the number of visits of walkers throughout the construction of the aggregate. In the third work, we examine the case where the aggregate is built using multidimensional drifted random walks. We show that under a suitable normalisation, the aggregate converges towards a limiting shape which is identified as a true heat ball. We thus give an answer to an open question in analysis concerning the existence of such a bounded shape. The last work deals with the special case where an interior bound is known for the aggregate. We give a set of conditions on the graph and on the nature of this interior bound that are sufficient to imply an outer bound. This result is applied to the case of random walks on the supercritical bond percolation cluster, thus completing a result by Shellef.

A maioria dos trabalhos sobre o impacto macroeconômico da abertura da conta de capital não encontra nenhum efeito da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais. No entanto, uma leitura cuidadosa desta literatura revela que a maioria destes estudos não trata realmente da teoria que se propõe a testar. Aqueles que defendem um impacto positivo da liberalização financeira sobre o crescimento econômico aceitam as previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico de redução permanente no custo do capital e aumento temporário no investimento nos mercados emergentes, quando estes liberalizam suas contas de capital. A maior parte dos artigos que não encontram efeitos da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais não testa estas previsões. Uma ramificação pequena, mas crescente, desta literatura sobre a relação entre liberalização da conta de capital e crescimento econômico, que leva em conta a natureza temporal das previsões do modelo neoclássico (os artigos que adotam o chamado enfoque do experimento de política), encontra evidências de que a abertura da conta de capital em um país emergente gera efeitos significativos sobre o investimento e crescimento econômico. A desagregação dos dados, ou seja, a aplicação do enfoque do experimento de política a dados de firmas, fornece uma ligação mais forte com a teoria e graus de liberdade suficientes para se adotar uma nova estratégia de identificação que permite testar a eficiência na alocação dos recursos dentro do país em desenvolvimento que abriu sua conta de capital. O objetivo desta dissertação é tratar das teorias e evidências do impacto da liberalização da conta de capital nos países emergentes sobre o crescimento de suas economias, analisando-se as metodologias empíricas existentes aplicadas no teste desta relação, enfatizando as teorias que dão suporte a seus testes empíricos, bem como suas principais descobertas. Os efeitos da abertura da conta de capital no Brasil, na década de 90, serão analisados, utilizando-se uma estratégia de identificação recente a partir de dados de firmas, para se checar a validade empírica das previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico nesta situação. / Most writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account openness find no effects of liberalization on real variables. However, a critical reading of this literature reveals that most of these studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. Those who defend a positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth accept the neoclassical growth model’s predictions of permanent reduction on the cost of capital and temporary increase in investment in emerging markets when they liberalize their capital account. The lion’s share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables do not test these predictions. A small but growing branch of this literature on the relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth that takes the time series nature of the neoclassical model’s predictions seriously (papers that adopt the policy-experiment approach) find that opening the capital account within an emerging country generates significant effects on investment and economic growth. Disaggregating the data, that is to say, applying the policy-experiment approach to firm-level data, provides a tighter link to the theory than aggregate data and enough degrees of freedom to adopt a new identification strategy that allows of the test on the efficiency of capital allocation within the developing country that opened its capital account. The objective of this dissertation is to address the theories and evidences of the impact of capital account liberalization in emerging countries on their economic growth, analyzing the existing empirical methodologies applied to test this relationship, emphasizing the theories that support their empirical tests as well as their main findings. The effects of capital account opening in Brazil, in the 90’s, will be analyzed, using the recent firm-level data identification strategy, to check the empirical validity of the neoclassical growth model’s predictions in this situation.

A maioria dos trabalhos sobre o impacto macroeconômico da abertura da conta de capital não encontra nenhum efeito da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais. No entanto, uma leitura cuidadosa desta literatura revela que a maioria destes estudos não trata realmente da teoria que se propõe a testar. Aqueles que defendem um impacto positivo da liberalização financeira sobre o crescimento econômico aceitam as previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico de redução permanente no custo do capital e aumento temporário no investimento nos mercados emergentes, quando estes liberalizam suas contas de capital. A maior parte dos artigos que não encontram efeitos da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais não testa estas previsões. Uma ramificação pequena, mas crescente, desta literatura sobre a relação entre liberalização da conta de capital e crescimento econômico, que leva em conta a natureza temporal das previsões do modelo neoclássico (os artigos que adotam o chamado enfoque do experimento de política), encontra evidências de que a abertura da conta de capital em um país emergente gera efeitos significativos sobre o investimento e crescimento econômico. A desagregação dos dados, ou seja, a aplicação do enfoque do experimento de política a dados de firmas, fornece uma ligação mais forte com a teoria e graus de liberdade suficientes para se adotar uma nova estratégia de identificação que permite testar a eficiência na alocação dos recursos dentro do país em desenvolvimento que abriu sua conta de capital. O objetivo desta dissertação é tratar das teorias e evidências do impacto da liberalização da conta de capital nos países emergentes sobre o crescimento de suas economias, analisando-se as metodologias empíricas existentes aplicadas no teste desta relação, enfatizando as teorias que dão suporte a seus testes empíricos, bem como suas principais descobertas. Os efeitos da abertura da conta de capital no Brasil, na década de 90, serão analisados, utilizando-se uma estratégia de identificação recente a partir de dados de firmas, para se checar a validade empírica das previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico nesta situação. / Most writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account openness find no effects of liberalization on real variables. However, a critical reading of this literature reveals that most of these studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. Those who defend a positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth accept the neoclassical growth model’s predictions of permanent reduction on the cost of capital and temporary increase in investment in emerging markets when they liberalize their capital account. The lion’s share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables do not test these predictions. A small but growing branch of this literature on the relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth that takes the time series nature of the neoclassical model’s predictions seriously (papers that adopt the policy-experiment approach) find that opening the capital account within an emerging country generates significant effects on investment and economic growth. Disaggregating the data, that is to say, applying the policy-experiment approach to firm-level data, provides a tighter link to the theory than aggregate data and enough degrees of freedom to adopt a new identification strategy that allows of the test on the efficiency of capital allocation within the developing country that opened its capital account. The objective of this dissertation is to address the theories and evidences of the impact of capital account liberalization in emerging countries on their economic growth, analyzing the existing empirical methodologies applied to test this relationship, emphasizing the theories that support their empirical tests as well as their main findings. The effects of capital account opening in Brazil, in the 90’s, will be analyzed, using the recent firm-level data identification strategy, to check the empirical validity of the neoclassical growth model’s predictions in this situation.

Les microalgues sont de plus en plus regardées pour leurs potentiels énergétiques et leurs nombreuses applications. Mais les systèmes de production actuels, que se soit les systèmes dits ouvert comme les bassins ou les systèmes fermés, appelés photobioréacteurs, sont très énergivores et pas assez productifs. Cette thèse propose un nouveau concept de photobioréacteur, composé d'un airlift et d'une plaque mince. Le photobioréacteur est caractérisé expérimentalement et est modélisé sous plusieurs aspects. L'hydrodynamique du système est modélisée pour prédire le comportement des fluides dans le système. Les phénomènes de transferts de masse sont modélisés par le modèle des deux films. La modélisation permet de connaitre l'apport minimum nécessaire en dioxyde de carbone pour la culture des microalgues et permet d'évaluer la concentration en oxygène dissous dans le photobioréacteur. Elle permet aussi d'évaluer son élimination par le système, l'oxygène étant inhibant pour la culture. Les phénomènes de transferts de chaleur sont aussi modélisés, permettant de connaitre l'impact des différents paramètres (ensoleillement, température de l'air ambiant) sur la température de culture. Ces différents modèles sont rassemblés en un modèle global qui est comparé aux résultats expérimentaux de culture d'algues. Le modèle global est ensuite utilisé dans un contexte plus complexe : l'intégration des plaques minces du photobioréacteur aux parois d'un bâtiment. Le modèle global permettra d'étudier l'effet les différentes orientations (Nord, Sud, Est, Ouest en vertical sur les façades et à l'horizontal sur les toits) sur les températures et productivité du système. La consommation d'énergie de la culture est optimisée grâce au modèle. A la suite de cette optimisation, certaines perspectives sur l'intégration énergétique d'un tel système sont proposées. / Microalgae are more and more studied for their energy potential and various applications. However, the actual production processes (open and closed photobioreactor) use a lot of energy and aren't productive enough. This thesis presents a novel process of microalgae culture, with an airlift system coupled to a thin plate. The photobioreactor is experimentally characterized and modeled for many aspects. Hydrodynamics of the system is modeled to predict the fluid behavior in the system. Mass transfers are modeled using the two film model. The model allows knowing minimum carbon needs for microalgae culture. It also allows evaluating dissolved oxygen concentration in the photobioreactor and its elimination efficiency. Oxygen is inhibiting the culture at high concentration. Heat transfers are also modeled, allowing to know climate parameters impact (sunshine, ambient air temperature) on culture temperature. All models are assembled in a global model. This model is compared to microalgae culture experimental results. Finally, the global model is used to study a more complex system: culture thin plates are integrated on the walls of buildings. Global model allow studying different orientation effects on temperature and productivity of the system. Culture is optimized for energy consumption and some perspectives on energy integration of such a system are proposed.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-12T20:15:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cristiane Stegemann.pdf: 4817823 bytes, checksum: f859f3883a8981d6a95d5baba3847fc3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-24 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / One of the tumor growth model is formed by a three-dimensional continuous-time dynamical system, modeled by a set of three autonomous, first-order ordinary differential equations. Mathematical models for tumor growth are used as mechanisms to better understand this disease, find patterns for identification through simulations of the spatial distribution of tumors, or even analysis of interactions of cell populations in order to predict their future behavior. In this work, we introduce some systems that model population growth, which substantiate the choice of the equations of growth of tumors that will later be used in computer simulations. From the analytical point of view, one can determine all equilibrium points of the system and for one of them to study its stability. For to the latter task, we will use the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix. The numerical results were obtained by the study of parameter spaces and bifurcation diagrams. The parameter spaces were constructed from the change in a couple of parameters and by calculating a third magnitude, which in this work will be the period and the Lyapunov exponent. These results indicate the existence of specific regions in the parameter space where periodic structures were arranged in a period-adding bifurcation cascade. It is shown that, in the innermost region of the periodic structures, it is possible to visualize the superestable line. Finally, for certain parameter values, the periodic structures are presented spirally arranged, although no law of formation has been found. / Um dos modelos de crescimento de tumores é formado por um sistema dinâmico tridimensional a tempo contínuo, modelado por um conjunto de três equações diferenciais ordinárias de primeira ordem autônomas. Modelos matemáticos para crescimento de tumores são utilizados como mecanismos para entender melhor esta doença, encontrar padrões para sua identificação através de simulações da distribuição espacial de tumores, ou mesmo análises de interações de populações celulares com o intuito de predizer seu comportamento futuro. Neste trabalho, serão apresentados alguns sistemas que modelam crescimento populacional, o que fundamentará a escolha das equações de crescimento de tumores que, posteriormente, serão utilizadas nas simulações computacionais. Do ponto de vista analítico, pode-se determinar todos os pontos de equilíbrio do sistema e, para um deles, estudar sua estabilidade. Para esta última tarefa, serão utilizados os autovalores da matriz Jacobiana. Os resultados numéricos foram obtidos via estudo de espaços de parâmetros e diagramas de bifurcação. Os espaços de parâmetros são construídos a partir da variação de um par de parâmetros e do cálculo de uma terceira grandeza, que neste trabalho, serão o período e o expoente de Lyapunov. Tais resultados indicam a existência de regiões específicas no espaço de parâmetros em que a estruturas periódicas são arranjadas em uma cascata de bifurcação por adição de período. Será mostrado que, na região mais interna das estruturas periódicas, é possível visualizar a linha de superestabilidade. Por fim, para determinados valores dos parâmetros, as estruturas periódicas se apresentam dispostas em espiral, embora nenhuma lei de formação tenha sido encontrada.

A disponibilidade de recursos, tanto de ordem financeira quanto de mão-de-obra, é escassa. Sendo assim, deve-se incentivar o planejamento regional que minimize a utilização de recursos. A previsão de safra por intermédio de técnicas de modelagem deve ser realizada anteriormente com base nas características regionais, indicando assim as diretrizes básicas da pesquisa, bem como o planejamento regional. Dessa forma, os objetivos deste trabalho são: (i) caracterizar as variáveis do clima por intermédio de diferentes distribuições de probabilidade; (ii) verificar a homogeneidade espacial e temporal para as variáveis do clima; (iii) utilizar a distribuição normal bivariada para simular parâmetros utilizados na estimação de produtividade da cultura de soja; e (iv) propor um modelo para estimar a ordem de magnitude da produtividade potencial (dependente da interação genótipo, temperatura, radiação fotossinteticamente ativa e fotoperíodo) e da produtividade deplecionada (dependente da podutividade potencial, da chuva e do armazenamento de água no solo) de grãos de soja, baseados nos valores diários de temperatura, insolação e chuva, para o estado de São Paulo. As variáveis utilizadas neste estudo foram: temperatura média, insolação, radiação solar fotossinteticamente ativa e precipitação pluvial, em escala diária, obtidas em 27 estações localizadas no Estado de São Paulo e seis estações localizadas em Estados vizinhos. Primeiramente, verificou-se a aderência das variáveis a cinco distribuições de probabilidade (normal, log-normal, exponencial, gama e weibull), por intermédio do teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Verificou-se a homogeneidade espacial e temporal dos dados por intermédio da análise de agrupamento pelo método de Ward e estimou-se o tamanho de amostra (número de anos) para as variáveis. A geração de números aleatórios foi realizada por intermédio do método Monte Carlo. A simulação dos dados de radiação fotossinteticamente ativa e temperatura foram realizadas por intermédio de três casos (i) distribuição triangular assimétrica (ii) distribuição normal truncada a 1,96 desvio padrão da média e (iii) distribuição normal bivariada. Os dados simulados foram avaliados por intermédio do teste de homogeneidade de variância de Bartlett e do teste F, teste t, índice de concordância de Willmott, coeficiente angular da reta, o índice de desempenho de Camargo (C) e aderência à distribuição normal (univariada). O modelo utilizado para calcular a produtividade potencial da cultura de soja foi desenvolvido com base no modelo de De Wit, incluindo contribuições de Van Heenst, Driessen, Konijn, de Vries, dentre outros. O cálculo da produtividade deplecionada foi dependente da evapotranspiração potencial, da cultura e real e coeficiente de sensibilidade a deficiência hídrica. Os dados de precipitação pluvial foram amostrados por intermédio da distribuição normal. Sendo assim, a produção diária de carboidrato foi deplecionada em função do estresse hídrico e número de horas diárias de insolação. A interpolação dos dados, de modo a englobar todo o Estado de São Paulo, foi realizada por intermédio do método da Krigagem. Foi verificado que a maior parte das variáveis segue a distribuição normal de probabilidade. Além disso, as variáveis apresentam variabilidade espacial e temporal e o número de anos necessários (tamanho de amostra) para cada uma delas é bastante variável. A simulação utilizando a distribuição normal bivariada é a mais apropriada por representar melhor as variáveis do clima. E o modelo de estimação das produtividades potencial e deplecionada para a cultura de soja produz resultados coerentes com outros resultados obtidos na literatura. / The availability of resources, as much of financial order and human labor, is scarse. Therefore, it must stimulates the regional planning that minimizes the use of resources. Then, the forecast of harvests through modelling techniques must previously on the basis of be carried through the regional characteristics, thus indicating the routes of the research, as well as the regional planning. Then, the aims of this work are: (i) to characterize the climatic variables through different probability distributions; (ii) to verify the spatial and temporal homogeneity of the climatic variables; (iii) to verify the bivaried normal distribution to simulate parameters used to estimate soybean crop productivity; (iv) to propose a model of estimating the magnitud order of soybean crop potential productivity (it depends on the genotype, air temperature, photosynthetic active radiation; and photoperiod) and the depleted soybean crop productivity (it pedends on the potential productivity, rainfall and soil watter availability) based on daily values of temperature, insolation and rain, for the State of São Paulo. The variable used in this study had been the minimum, maximum and average air temperature, insolation, solar radiation, fotosynthetic active radiation and pluvial precipitation, in daily scale, gotten in 27 stations located in the State of São Paulo and six stations located in neighboring States. First, it was verified tack of seven variables in five probability distributions (normal, log-normal, exponential, gamma and weibull), through of Kolmogorov-Smirnov. The spatial and temporal verified through the analysis of grouping by Ward method and estimating the sample size (number of years) for the variable. The generation of random numbers was carried through the Monte Carlo Method. The simulation of the data of photosyntetic active radiation and temperature had been carried through three cases: (i) nonsymetric triangular distribution (ii) normal distribution truncated at 1.96 shunting line standard of the average and (iii) bivaried normal distribution. The simulated data had been evaluated through the test of homogeneity of variance of Bartlett and the F test, t test, agreement index of Willmott, angular coefficient of the straight line, the index of performance index of Camargo (C) and tack the normal distribution (univarieted). The proposed model to simulate the potential productivity of soybean crop was based on the de Wit concepts, including Van Heenst, Driessen, Konijn, Vries, and others researchers. The computation of the depleted productivity was dependent of the potential, crop and real evapotranspirations and the sensitivity hydric deficiency coefficient. The insolation and pluvial precipitation data had been showed through the normal distribution. Being thus, the daily production of carbohydrate was depleted as function of hydric stress and insolation. The interpolation of the data, in order to consider the whole State of Sao Paulo, was carried through the Kriging method. The results were gotten that most of the variable can follow the normal distribution. Moreover, the variable presents spatial and temporal variability and the number of necessary years (sample size) for each one of them is sufficiently changeable. The simulation using the bivaried normal distribution is most appropriate for better representation of climate variable. The model of estimating potential and depleted soybean crop productivities produces coherent values with the literature results.