Understanding the role of road networks in alteration of hydrological responses is crucial for maintaining the accessibility and durability of road infrastructures. Road construction is one of the most common man made disturbances to a landscape. However, still the quantitative role of road topographical and geo-morphological properties on the hydrological response of storms in catchments is only partially understood. The aim of this study was to use new methods to estimate and quantify the flood hazard probability with reference to the most influential physical catchment descriptors and road characteristics. In addition physical based modelling was used to estimate the effect of road topography on the hydrological responses of watersheds to storms with different intensities. A simple method was developed and discussed to address the most susceptible locations to flooding along the roads. Multivariate statistical analysis (PLS) employed to quantify the flood risk probability in the road-stream crossings concerning the correlation between the quantities of the physical catchment descriptors and occurrence/absence of flooding. The most influential factors in describing the probability of flooding along the roads were topographic wetness index, soil properties, road density and channel slopes. A detailed study of simulated flow duration curves showed differences between 20 watersheds for three different storms based on a digital elevation data with and without roads. An increase in peak flow and reduced delay occurred with increased storm intensity. However, the impact of the roads was much smaller and only possible to identify by detailed examination of statistical descriptors. / <p>QC 20140214</p>

Hydrology Modeling using HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modeling System) is accepted globally for event-based or continuous simulation of the rainfall-runoff operation. Similarly, Machine learning is a fast-growing discipline that offers numerous alternatives suitable for hydrology research's high demands and limitations. Conventional and process-based models such as HEC-HMS are typically created at specific spatiotemporal scales and do not easily fit the diversified and complex input parameters. Therefore, in this research, the effectiveness of Random Forest, a machine learning model, was compared with HEC-HMS for the rainfall-runoff process. In addition, Point gauge observations have historically been the primary source of the necessary rainfall data for hydrologic models. However, point gauge observation does not provide accurate information on rainfall's spatial and temporal variability, which is vital for hydrological models. Therefore, this study also evaluates the performance of satellite and radar precipitation products for hydrological analysis. The results revealed that integrated Machine Learning and physical-based model could provide more confidence in rainfall-runoff and flood depth prediction. Similarly, the study revealed that radar data performance was superior to the gauging station's rainfall data for the hydrologic analysis in large watersheds. The discussions in this research will encourage researchers and system managers to improve current rainfall-runoff simulation models by application of Machine learning and radar rainfall data.

O processo de urbanização vem ocorrendo na maioria das cidades brasileiras de forma desorganizada. Desse modo, um problema recorrente que afeta diversos municípios brasileiros são as inundações. A falta de um planejamento que levasse em consideração a drenagem urbana no início do desenvolvimento das cidades acaba criando condições para que as inundações sejam deflagradas a cada época chuvosa. Assim, mostra-se necessária a planificação de medidas preventivas e corretivas que abordem essa questão, a fim de que os prejuízos causados pelas inundações sejam minimizados. Dessa forma, a modelação hidrológica aparece como uma poderosa ferramenta, ao tornar possível uma análise das medidas de controle, através da criação de cenários e simulação de eventos hidrológicos. Nesse contexto o presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar, por meio de simulação hidrológica e hidráulica, o desempenho de algumas medidas de controle de inundação, estruturais e não-estruturais. Para tanto, com o auxílio do programa ArcGIS 9.3 e imagens de satélite de alta resolução, a bacia hidrográfica do Córrego do Gregório, em São Carlos SP, foi digitalizada e foram criados cenários alternativos que incorporaram as medidas de controle. Através da utilização dos softwares HEC-HMS e HEC-RAS foram realizadas as modelações hidráulica e hidrológica, utilizando tempos de retorno de 25, 50 e 100 anos para a chuva de projeto. Com os resultados obtidos (hidrogramas de cheia e manchas de inundação referentes a cada tempo de retorno), foi possível analisar as medidas comparando-se os diferentes cenários, e concluiu-se, para este caso, que os melhores resultados correspondem à associação das medidas estruturais e não-estruturais. Contudo, também foi verificado que, mesmo com a concretização do cenário mais favorável, o problema das inundações não seria satisfatoriamente equacionado, o que revela a necessidade de se considerar outras medidas para minimizar os prejuízos decorrentes das inundações, tais como medidas de controle na fonte, seguros contra inundações e sistemas de alerta antecipados. / The urbanization process has taken place in most Brazilian cities in a disorganized way, and floods are a recurring problem that has affected many municipalities. The lack of a planning that takes into account the urban drainage in the early development of the cities creates conditions for floods to occur in every rainy season. Therefore, the planning of preventive and corrective measures is necessary to address this issue in order to minimize the flood damages. Hydrological modeling appears as a powerful tool, as it enables the analysis of the flood management measures through the creation of scenarios and simulations of hydrological events. In this context, this dissertation analyzes the performance of some structural and nonstructural flood control measures by means of hydrologic and hydraulic simulations. The basin of the Gregório Stream, in São Carlos - SP, was scanned and scenarios that incorporate the management measures were created, both with the aid of software ArcGIS 9.3 and highresolution satellite images. Hydraulic and hydrologic modelings were performed by HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software programs using return periods of 25, 50 and 100 years for the design storm. The results (flood hydrographs and flooding areas for each return period) allowed analyzing the measures by comparing the different scenarios and the best results corresponded to the association of structural and nonstructural measures. However, even by implementing the best scenario, the problem of flooding would not be satisfactorily solved, revealing the need to consider other measures to minimize flood damage, such as runoff source control measures, flood insurance and early warning systems.

O processo de urbanização vem ocorrendo na maioria das cidades brasileiras de forma desorganizada. Desse modo, um problema recorrente que afeta diversos municípios brasileiros são as inundações. A falta de um planejamento que levasse em consideração a drenagem urbana no início do desenvolvimento das cidades acaba criando condições para que as inundações sejam deflagradas a cada época chuvosa. Assim, mostra-se necessária a planificação de medidas preventivas e corretivas que abordem essa questão, a fim de que os prejuízos causados pelas inundações sejam minimizados. Dessa forma, a modelação hidrológica aparece como uma poderosa ferramenta, ao tornar possível uma análise das medidas de controle, através da criação de cenários e simulação de eventos hidrológicos. Nesse contexto o presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar, por meio de simulação hidrológica e hidráulica, o desempenho de algumas medidas de controle de inundação, estruturais e não-estruturais. Para tanto, com o auxílio do programa ArcGIS 9.3 e imagens de satélite de alta resolução, a bacia hidrográfica do Córrego do Gregório, em São Carlos SP, foi digitalizada e foram criados cenários alternativos que incorporaram as medidas de controle. Através da utilização dos softwares HEC-HMS e HEC-RAS foram realizadas as modelações hidráulica e hidrológica, utilizando tempos de retorno de 25, 50 e 100 anos para a chuva de projeto. Com os resultados obtidos (hidrogramas de cheia e manchas de inundação referentes a cada tempo de retorno), foi possível analisar as medidas comparando-se os diferentes cenários, e concluiu-se, para este caso, que os melhores resultados correspondem à associação das medidas estruturais e não-estruturais. Contudo, também foi verificado que, mesmo com a concretização do cenário mais favorável, o problema das inundações não seria satisfatoriamente equacionado, o que revela a necessidade de se considerar outras medidas para minimizar os prejuízos decorrentes das inundações, tais como medidas de controle na fonte, seguros contra inundações e sistemas de alerta antecipados. / The urbanization process has taken place in most Brazilian cities in a disorganized way, and floods are a recurring problem that has affected many municipalities. The lack of a planning that takes into account the urban drainage in the early development of the cities creates conditions for floods to occur in every rainy season. Therefore, the planning of preventive and corrective measures is necessary to address this issue in order to minimize the flood damages. Hydrological modeling appears as a powerful tool, as it enables the analysis of the flood management measures through the creation of scenarios and simulations of hydrological events. In this context, this dissertation analyzes the performance of some structural and nonstructural flood control measures by means of hydrologic and hydraulic simulations. The basin of the Gregório Stream, in São Carlos - SP, was scanned and scenarios that incorporate the management measures were created, both with the aid of software ArcGIS 9.3 and highresolution satellite images. Hydraulic and hydrologic modelings were performed by HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software programs using return periods of 25, 50 and 100 years for the design storm. The results (flood hydrographs and flooding areas for each return period) allowed analyzing the measures by comparing the different scenarios and the best results corresponded to the association of structural and nonstructural measures. However, even by implementing the best scenario, the problem of flooding would not be satisfactorily solved, revealing the need to consider other measures to minimize flood damage, such as runoff source control measures, flood insurance and early warning systems.

Submitted by Aline Batista (alinehb.ufpel@gmail.com) on 2017-08-16T14:08:03Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Alice_Alonzo_Steinmetz_Estimativa_de_cheias_aplicando_a_técnica_de_hidrograma_unitário_com_diferentes_abordagens_de_discretização_espacial.pdf: 7122282 bytes, checksum: aef191b90c4f1b064f63c6126e7c0c2f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-16T14:08:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Alice_Alonzo_Steinmetz_Estimativa_de_cheias_aplicando_a_técnica_de_hidrograma_unitário_com_diferentes_abordagens_de_discretização_espacial.pdf: 7122282 bytes, checksum: aef191b90c4f1b064f63c6126e7c0c2f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-06 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / A indispensabilidade de preservação dos recursos hídricos estimula os pesquisadores a procurarem uma melhor compreensão quantitativa do ciclo hidrológico. A escassez de monitoramento hidrológico, confrontada com as grandes dimensões das bacias hidrográficas do Brasil, inviabilizam a mensuração da vazão em bacias de pequeno porte, bem como a análise de seu comportamento ao longo de um curso d’água. No tocante à gestão de cheias em bacias hidrográficas, as séries históricas de vazão são fundamentais para entender a resposta da bacia hidrográfica à ocorrência de eventos de chuvas intensas. A necessidade de dados hidrológicos repercute no desenvolvimento de modelos capazes de estimar hidrogramas de escoamento superficial direto (ESD), elemento de maior relevância para a análise de vazões resultantes de eventos extremos de precipitação. Dentre as técnicas de modelagem do ESD, destacam-se a teoria do Hidrograma Unitário (HU) e do Hidrograma Unitário Instantâneo (HUI). O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi avaliar a aplicabilidade e limitações de modelos de HU sintéticos tradicionalmente empregados na engenharia hidrológica (Triangular-HUT e Adimensional-HUA), além de modelos de HUI conceituais (Nash-HUIN e Clark-HUIC) e de suas versões geomorfológicas (Nash-HUIGN e Clark-HUIGC). Todos os procedimentos relacionados aos modelos de HU e HUI foram conduzidos considerando dois cenários de estudo: modelagem concentrada (cenário 1) e modelagem distribuída (cenário 2). A área de estudo foi a bacia hidrográfica do arroio Cadeia que é uma importante sub-bacia da bacia hidrográfica do arroio Pelotas (BHAP), situada no sul do estado do Rio Grande do Sul. As informações primordiais para a aplicação de tais modelos foram as variáveis topográficas extraídas do modelo digital de elevação e dados temporais de chuva e vazão monitorados na bacia, fazendo uso da rede de monitoramento hidrológico existente na BHAP. Dez eventos chuva-vazão foram analisados e o método do Número da Curva possibilitou estimar a distribuição temporal de precipitações efetivas para ambos os cenários. O processamento computacional constituiu-se da aplicação do software HEC-HMS e da linguagem de programação R para a análise dos modelos de HU e HUI supracitados. Para a calibração dos parâmetros dos modelos, empregou-se o algoritmo Nelder Mead. As principais constatações deste trabalho foram: i) os modelos HUIC e HUIN foram os que tiveram melhor acurácia para estimativa de vazões de pico e dos hidrogramas; ii) as formulações geomorfológicas não são universais e necessitam ser utilizadas com cautela; iii) os modelos ajustados apresentaram desempenho ligeiramente superior quando discretizado por sub-bacia; iv) os modelos que utilizam parâmetros geomorfológicos possuíram melhor desempenho quando aplicada a modelagem concentrada; v) o algoritmo Nelder Mead pode ter aplicação limitada; vi) outros algoritmos devem ser investigados em estudos futuros no intuito de buscar soluções mais adequadas; vii) no cenário 2 foi possível discretizar os parâmetros e relacionar com a realidade hidrológica da bacia em estudo. / The indispensability of preserving water resources encourages researchers to seek a better quantitative understanding of the hydrological cycle. The scarcity of hydrological monitoring in conjunction with the large dimensions of Brazilian watersheds makes it unfeasible to measure stream flow and to analyze its behavior along a watercourse in small-sized watersheds. With regard to flood management in watersheds, historical stream flow series are fundamental to understand the watershed response to the occurrence of heavy rainfall events. The need for hydrological data stimulates the development of models capable of estimating direct surface runoff (DSR) hydrographs, which is the most relevant component when analyzing stream flows originated from extreme rainfall events. Among the techniques available for DSR modeling, the theory of Unit Hydrograph (UH) and Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) should be highlighted. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the applicability and limitations of synthetic UH models traditionally used in hydrological engineering (Triangular-TUH and Dimensionless-DUH), conceptual IUH models (Nash-NIUH and Clark-CIUH) and their geomorphological versions (Nash-GNIUH and Clark-GCIUH). All the procedures involving UH and IUH models were carried out taking into account two study scenarios: lumped modeling (scenario 1) and distributed modeling (scenario 2). The study area was the Cadeia river watershed, which is an important subwatershed of the Pelotas river watershed (PRW), located in the south of Rio Grande do Sul State. The main information for the application of such models were topographical variables extracted from digital elevation model and temporal series related to rainfall and stream flow monitored in the watershed, making use of the existing hydrological monitoring network in the PRW. Ten rainfall-runoff events were evaluated and the Curve Number method was used to estimate the temporal distribution of effective rainfalls for both scenarios. The computational processing consisted of the application of both HEC-HMS software and R programming language for analysis of the aforementioned UH and IUH models. Nelder Mead algorithm was employed for calibration of the models’ parameters. The main findings of this study were: i) CIUH and NIUH were the models that had the best accuracy for estimation of peak stream flows and hydrographs; ii) the geomorphological formulations are not universal and need to be used carefully; iii) the adjusted models resulted in slightly superior performance when discretized by sub-basin; iv) the models dependent on geomorphological parameters had better performance when lumped modeling was applied; v) the Nelder Mead algorithm may have limited application; vi) other algorithms should be investigated in future studies in order to seek more adequate solutions; vii) in scenario 2, it was possible to discretize the parameters and relate them to the hydrological reality of the watershed under analysis.

Dealing with the issue of spring flood events is primarily based on their causes. It is therefore important to study the processes of snow accumulation and snowmelt especially in mountain areas where the development of snow water equivalent (SWE) is primarily observed. The snow water equivalent indicates amount of the water in the snow and thus represents a runoff volume during the spring melting period and demonstrates the flood risk potential. In this thesis the lumped modelling approach of the rainfall-runoff model HEC- HMS was used. The model was applied in the Bystřice River basin in the Ore Mountains where the field measurements of the snow cover and SWE is carried out. Applied temperature-index method is the well-developed method because it takes into account both the melting during precipitation and melting in the period without any precipitation and aims to capture snow energy balance by means of air temperature. Three winter periods (2006, 2008 and 2009) were simulated. The evolution of the snow water equivalent was observed and the agreement between observed and simulated hydrographs was assessed in the closure profile Ostrov. Published results show the influence of winter course and character on the model capability to simulate the snow water equivalent and runoff. The observed and...

This study is focused on the evaluation of selected rainfall-runoff episodes in terms of temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff in the upper basin of the Blanice River. HEC - HMS model with two variants of spatial discretization was used to achieve the results of the holistic approach. The main input data was quantitative precipitation estimation, which better assessed the spatial variability of rainfall fields than interpolated ground measurements. The model simulated five episodes. Contrary to expectations, southern headstream area of the basin showed lower coefficient of runoff in comparison with its northern part. Precipitation cores of epizods occurred over the northern part of the basin at the outlet. Outputs from the model were evaluated in relation to measurements carried out in the experimental basin Zbytiny. Key words: Blanice River, HEC-HMS, hydrologic modeling, quantitative precipitation estimation

El presente trabajo consiste en el modelamiento hidrológico e hidráulico de la quebrada Cashahuacra ubicada en el distrito de Santa Eulalia con el fin de proponer la estructura de un sistema de alerta temprana que integre estos modelos para evitar la pérdida, primordialmente, de vidas humanas. Se presenta una síntesis de los principales eventos de flujo de detritos ocurridos en dicho lugar así como un marco teórico que aborda conceptos básicos relacionados al estudio de la hidrología e hidráulica. Para el modelo hidrológico, se llevó a cabo la caracterización de la quebrada Cashahuacra y se obtuvo sus parámetros principales, así también, fue necesario la adquisición de los datos históricos de precipitación. De esta manera, el modelo hidrológico fue realizado con el software HEC-HMS versión 4.2 en colaboración con ArcGIS versión 10.2.1. y su extensión HEC-GeoHMS. Así, se pudo determinar los caudales máximos bajo los periodos de retorno de 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 y 500 años. El modelo hidráulico fue desarrollado con el software FLO-2D versión PRO. Tuvo como parámetros de entrada al hidrograma calculado por el modelo hidrológico, a la topografía digital del terreno, y a parámetros reológicos como la viscosidad y el esfuerzo de cedencia. Luego, fueron obtenidas las velocidades y profundidades máximas de los periodos de retorno mencionados líneas arriba. Finalmente, se ha integrado estas dos modelaciones en la estructura de un sistema de alerta temprana frente a huaycos y se ha sugerido la implementación de un radar meteorológico para la quebrada en estudio. / The present work consists of hydrological and hydraulic modeling of the Cashahuacra stream located in the Santa Eulalia district in order to propose the structure of an early warning system that integrates these models to avoid the loss, primarily of human lives. A synthesis of the main debris flow events occurring in that place is presented as well as a theoretical framework that addresses basic concepts related to the study of hydrology and hydraulics. For the hydrological model, the characterization of the Cashahuacra stream was carried out and its main parameters were obtained, as well as the acquisition of the historical precipitation data. In this way, the hydrological model was made with the HEC-HMS software version 4.2 in collaboration with ArcGIS version 10.2.1. and its HEC-GeoHMS extension. Thus, it was possible to determine the maximum flow rates under the return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 years. The hydraulic model was developed with the FLO-2D PRO version software. It had as input parameters to the hydrograph calculated by the hydrological model, to the digital topography of the land, and to rheological parameters such as viscosity and yield strength. Then, the maximum speeds and depths of the return periods mentioned above were obtained. Finally, these two models have been integrated into the structure of an early warning system against hurricanes and the implementation of a meteorological radar for the stream under study has been suggested. / Tesis

In this study, Yuvacik Basin, which is located in southeastern part of Marmara Region of T&uuml / rkiye, is selected as the application basin and hydrologic modeling studies are performed for the basin. Basin is divided into three subbasins such as: Kirazdere, Kazandere, and Serindere and each subbasin is modeled with its own parameters. In subbasin and stream network delineation HEC-GeoHMS software is used and for the hydrologic modeling studies the new version of HEC-HMS hydrologic modeling software released in April 2006 is used. Modeling studies consist of four items: event-based hourly simulations, snow period daily simulations, daily runoff forecast using numerical weather prediction data, and runoff scenarios using intensity-duration-frequency curves. As a result of modeling studies, infiltration loss and baseflow parameters of each subbasin are calibrated with both hourly and daily simulations. Hourly parameters are used in spring, summer and fall seasons / daily parameters are used in late fall, winter and early spring (snowfall and snowmelt period) to predict runoff. Observed runoffs are compared with the forecasted runoffs that are obtained using MM5 grid data (precipitation and temperature) in the model. Goodness-of-fit between forecasted and observed runoffs is promising. Hence, the model can be used in real time runoff forecast studies. At last, runoffs that correspond to different return periods and probable maximum precipitation are predicted using intensity-duration-frequency data as input and frequency storm method of HEC-HMS. These runoffs can be used for flood control and flood damage estimation studies.

This work consisted in the analysis of the off-line coupling of hydrological and hydraulic models from observed rainfall data and in the TRMM satellite precipitation intensity estimates in the Paraíba do Meio watershed (AL/PE), with the final objective the mapping of flooded areas and risk analysis of Atalaia-AL city, when considering the flood event occurred in 2010. The main computational programs used were: HEC-HMS in hydrological modeling and HEC-RAS in hydraulic modeling, in addition to their respective extensions integrated with ArcMap in the preprocessing stage, HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-GeoRAS. The results showed that the rainfall intensity data estimated by the TRMM satellite presented a good correlation with the rainfall data series, presenting values of 0.90 ("TRMM" x Postos) and 0.94 ("TRMM + Postos" x Postos). The hydrological model presented a good representation in relation to flood events in the Paraíba do Meio watershed, from data the flood occurred in 2000 and the flood of 2010. The validation of the model presented satisfactory results in the Atalaia post (39870000) in relation to the corrected satellite series ("TRMM + Postos"), evidencing with a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient - COE of 0.91. The hydraulic modeling was calibrated based on the Manning coefficient (n) adjustment for the banks and bottom of the channel, based on the ENGEMAP field markings and the peak flow recorded during the 2010 event by the fluviometric Atalaia post (39870000), already the model validation was done from the calibrated Manning coefficient (n) and the hydrograph generated in the hydrological simulation based on the corrected satellite series TRMM ("TRMM + Postos"). Thus, the mapping of the flooded areas made based on the 2010 flood data allowed a Risk Analysis in Atalaia city, based on the threat and vulnerability of the resident population in the riverine region to the occurrence of floods. / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Este trabalho consistiu na análise do acoplamento “off-line” de modelos hidrológico e hidráulico a partir de dados de precipitação observada e nas estimativas de intensidade de precipitação do satélite TRMM em relação à bacia hidrográfica do rio Paraíba do Meio (AL/PE), tendo como objetivo final o mapeamento das áreas inundáveis e análise de risco do município de Atalaia-AL, ao considerar o evento de cheia ocorrido em 2010. Os principais programas computacionais empregados foram: o HEC-HMS na modelagem hidrológica e o HEC-RAS na modelagem hidráulica, além de suas respectivas extensões integradas ao ArcMap na etapa do pré-processamento, HEC-GeoHMS e HEC-GeoRAS. Os resultados mostraram que as intensidades pluviométricas estimadas pelo satélite TRMM apresentaram boa correlação com a série de dados dos pluviômetros, com valores de 0,90 (“TRMM” x Postos) e de 0,94 (“TRMM+Postos” x Postos). O modelo hidrológico demonstrou uma boa representatividade em relação a eventos de cheia na bacia, a partir de dados da cheia ocorrida em 2000 e da cheia de 2010. A validação do modelo hidrológico demonstrou resultados satisfatórios no posto Atalaia (39870000) para a série corrigida do satélite (“TRMM+Postos”), exibindo um coeficiente de eficiência de Nash Sutcliffe – COE – de 0,91. A modelagem hidráulica teve sua calibração baseada no ajuste do coeficiente de Manning (n) para as margens e fundo do canal, com base nas marcas de cheia levantadas em campo pela ENGEMAP e pela vazão de pico registrada no posto Atalaia (39870000) durante o evento de 2010, já a validação do modelo partiu do coeficiente de Manning (n) calibrado e do hidrograma gerado na simulação hidrológica a partir da série corrigida do satélite TRMM (“TRMM+Postos”). Por fim, o mapeamento das áreas inundadas, permitiu uma Análise de Risco no município de Atalaia baseada na análise da vulnerabilidade social e das ameaças às quais a população residente às margens do rio está exposta diante da ocorrência de eventos de inundação.