付記する学位プログラム名: グローバル生存学大学院連携プログラム / 京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第21056号 / 工博第4420号 / 新制||工||1687(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 寶 馨, 教授 角 哲也, 准教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Les avalanches sont susceptibles d’affecter le réseau routier et les infrastructures bâties, mettant en péril la population. L’extension des avalanches est généralement évaluée à l’aide de modèles physiques et/ou statistiques. Ces modèles sont très performants pour simuler des événements relativement fréquents, cependant, les incertitudes augmentent dès lors que l’on considère des événements plus rares. Il est donc indispensable de valider les procédures de modélisation afin de confirmer les prédictions qui en découlent. Dans ce travail, la dendrogéomorphologie a été utilisée comme un outil de validation. Cette approche se fonde sur le fait que les arbres forment un cerne de croissance par année et que les individus affectés par des processus naturels enregistrent l’évidence d’une perturbation dans leurs cernes. Cette thèse a permis de proposer une nouvelle approche pour l’identification des événements avalancheux fondée sur l’expertise du dendrogéomorphologue et d’évaluer la qualité de l’approche dendrogéomorphologique. Il a également été possible de réaliser une validation croisée entre des avalanches extrêmes prédites par un modèle statistique-dynamique et des informations sur des périodes de retour d’avalanches similaires obtenues à l’aide de l’approche dendrogéomorphologique. Les résultats montrent une très bonne concordance pour des événements dont la période de retour est égale ou inférieure à 300 ans. Finalement, une analyse des relations statistiques avalanche-climat a montré que les arbres enregistrent préférentiellement les événements qui ont eu lieu durant des épisodes froids associés à des tempêtes hivernales accompagnées de fortes précipitations. / Snow avalanches are a significant natural hazard that impact roads, structures and threaten human lives in mountainous terrain. The extent of avalanches is usually evaluated using topographic or statistic models. These models are well capable to simulate contemporary events, but uncertainties increase as soon as longer return periods are investigated. Thus, there is a real need for validation of modelling procedures to corroborate model predictions. In the present work, dendrogeomorphology has been used as a validation tool. This approach is based on the fact that trees affected by mass movements record the evidence of geomorphic disturbance in their growth-ring series and thereby provide a precise geochronological tool for the reconstruction of past mass movement activity. This PhD thesis presents a new tree-ring-based semi-quantitative approach for the identification of avalanche events based on the analytical skills of the dendrogeomorphic expert and proposes an evaluation of the completeness of tree-ring records. Furthermore, this work proposes the first cross-validation of high return period avalanches derived from a locally calibrated statistical-dynamical model and the long-term, higher-return period information gathered from tree-ring records. Comparison of relations between runout distances and return periods between both approaches shows very good agreement for events with return periods of < 300 yr. Finally, a statistical analysis of avalanche-climate relations suggests that tree rings preferentially record events that occurred during cold winter storms with heavy precipitation.

L'objectiu d'aquest treball es centra en el desenvolupament, comprovació i millora d'una metodologia per l'assessorament del perill tèrmic de les reaccions químiques, orientada especialment a les petites i mitjanes empreses. La metodologia està basada en un sistema de llistes de comprovació per identificar els perills, així com en altres eines senzilles d'entendre per a personal no expert en seguretat. Els orígens del desenvolupament de la metodologia es basen en dos eines existents, HarsMeth i Check Cards for Runaway. S'han pres diferents enfocaments per tal d'aconseguir una metodologia d'assessorament fiable. En primer lloc s'ha verificat l'eficàcia d'ambdues metodologies en diferents empreses dedicades al desenvolupament de productes de química fina, per determinar els punts forts i els punts febles de cada una de elles, i per aprofitar els avantatges identificats per tal de crear una unica metodologia anomenada HarsMeth version 2. A continuació, s'ha provat aquesta versió exhaustivament en dos empreses químiques per tal de millorarla, detectant fallades i allargant les llistes de comprovació amb la finalitat de cobrir el màxim número possible de qüestions per l'assessorament. Altres activitats s'han centrat en el desenvolupament d'eines per a la determinació teòrica de entalpies de reacció i per la identificació de perills tèrmics en equips de procés. La versió final de la metodologia que s'ha desenvolupat, anomenada HarsMeth New Process, està estructurada per tal de realitzar l'assessorament seguint els passos lògics en el desenvolupament d'un procés químic, començant per el disseny de la reacció química en el laboratori, seguit per l'anàlisi de la estabilitat i compatibilitat dels reactius, l'anàlisi de la perillositat de la reacció, l'escalat del procés, i la determinació de les mesures de seguretat necessàries per implementar el procés a escala industrial en funció dels perills identificats anteriorment. Un altre estratègia seguida per millorar la metodologia ha estat analitzar els accidents químics inclosos en la base de dades MARS amb la finalitat de determinar lliçons per aprendre dels accidents, així com per identificar quins aspectes de la metodologia haurien ajudat a prevenir els accidents, i a posar de relleu quins aspectes de la seguretat quimica s'han de tenir especialment en compte a les indústries de procés. / El objetivo de este trabajo se centra en el desarrollo, comprobación y mejora de una metodología para el asesoramiento del peligro térmico de las reacciones químicas, orientada especialmente a las pequeñas y medianas empresas. La metodología está basada en un sistema de listas de comprobación para identificar los peligros, así como en otras herramientas fáciles de entender para personal no experto en seguridad. Los orígenes del desarrollo de la metodología se basan en dos herramientas existentes, HarsMeth y Check Cards for Runaway. Se han seguido diferentes enfoques para llegar a una metodología de asesoramiento fiable. En primer lugar se ha verificado la eficacia de ambas metodologías en diferentes empresas dedicadas al desarrollo de productos de química fina, para determinar las fuerzas y debilidades de cada una de ellas, y para aprovechar las ventajas identificadas para crear una única metodología llamada HarsMeth version 2. A continuación, se ha probado esta versión exhaustivamente en dos empresas químicas para mejorarla, detectando fallos y expandiendo las listas de comprobación con el fin de cubrir el máximo número de cuestiones posibles en el asesoramiento. Otras actividades se han centrado en el desarrollo de herramientas para la determinación teórica de entalpías de reacción y para la identificación de peligros térmicos en equipos de proceso. La versión final de la metodología que se ha desarrollado, llamada HarsMeth New Process, está estructurada para realizar el asesoramiento siguiendo los pasos lógicos del desarrollo de un proceso químico, empezando por el diseño de la reacción química en el laboratorio, siguiendo con el análisis de la estabilidad y compatibilidad de los reactivos, el análisis de la peligrosidad de la reacción, el escalado del proceso y la determinación de medidas de seguridad necesarias para implementar el proceso a escala industrial en función de los peligros identificados anteriormente. Otra estrategia seguida para mejorar la metodología ha sido analizar los accidentes químicos incluidos en la base de datos MARS con el fin de determinar lecciones a aprender de los accidentes, así como identificar qué aspectos cubiertos por la metodología podrían haber ayudado a prevenir los accidentes, y a enfatizar qué aspectos de la seguridad química deben tener especialmente presentes las industrias de proceso. / The aim of this work is focused on the development, testing and improvement of a methodology for the assessment of thermal hazards of chemical reactions, mainly oriented to be used at small and medium enterprises. The methodology consists on a checklist based system to identify thermal hazards, including tools easy to be followed by non experts in the field of safety. The origins of the development are two already existing tools known as HarsMeth and Check Cards for Runaway. Different approaches have been followed in order to come up with a reliable assessment tool. In the first place, the two mentioned methodologies were tested at different companies working on fine chemical production, which gave the possibility to determine strengths and weaknesses for both methodologies, and to profit from the identified strengths to combine them to create one single tool called HarsMeth version 2. Later, this version was thoroughly tested at two different companies to improve it, by detecting flaws and expanding the checklists in order to cover as many issues as possible in the assessment. Further work performed aimed at the development of tools for the theoretical estimation of reaction enthalpies and for the identification of thermal hazards in process equipment. A final version of the methodology was produced, called HarsMeth New Process, structured to perform the hazard assessment at every step followed in the development of a chemical process, starting from the design of the chemical reaction at the laboratory, followed by the study of stability and compatibility of the reactants involved, the bench scale analysis of the synthesis path chosen, the scale up of the process and the determination of the necessary safety measures for the implementation of the process at industrial scale in accordance with the hazards identified. Another strategy followed in order to improve the methodology has been to analyse the chemical accidents reported to the MARS database in order to establish lessons learned from such accidents, and to identify what topics of the methodology could have helped to prevent the accidents and to emphasize what aspects of chemical safety need to be taken into account by the process industries.

Η περιοχή του ανατολικού τμήματος της τάφρου της Κορίνθου αποτελεί μια ταχύτατα αναπτυσσόμενη περιοχή φιλοξενώντας σημαντικότατες υποδομές. Η ανάπτυξη αυτής της περιοχής είναι απειλούμενη από την εξίσου σημαντική σεισμική δραστηριότητα που εμφανίζει και είχε ως αποτέλεσμα, σε προηγούμενους ιστορικούς χρόνους εκτεταμένες καταρρεύσεις κτηρίων, θανάτους ή και την πλήρη καταστροφή πόλεων. Σήμερα, νέες επιστημονικές μέθοδοι επικεντρώνονται στα εντυπωσιακά ρηξιγενή πρανή που τη διατρέχουν, η δράση των οποίων θεωρείται υπεύθυνη για τα ισχυρά σεισμικά επεισόδια που συμβαίνουν στην περιοχή. Η εκτίμηση των γεωμετρικών χαρακτηριστικών των ενεργών ρηγμάτων που εντοπίζονται στο θαλάσσιο και στο χερσαίο νότιο τμήμα της τάφρου οδήγησε σε μορφοκλασματικές κατανομές των δύο πληθυσμών από όπου προέκυψε ότι η κυρίαρχη διαδικασία ανάπτυξης των ρηγμάτων στον Κορινθιακό κόλπο είναι η συνένωση μικρότερων ρηγμάτων. Η διαδικασία αυτή φαίνεται να βρίσκεται σε ένα πιο πρώιμο στάδιο στον θαλάσσιο πληθυσμό, ενώ αντίθετα ο χερσαίος πληθυσμός έχει εισαχθεί σε ένα στάδιο ωριμότητας της παραμόρφωσης. Επιπλέον, διαπιστώθηκε ότι ο διαχωρισμός σε μήκη ρηγμάτων μικρότερα και μεγαλύτερα από 5km αναπαριστά ένα ανώτερο όριο στο οποίο πραγματοποιείται η αλλαγή στον τρόπο ανάπτυξης των ρηγμάτων αλλά μπορεί να συσχετιστεί και με την υποκείμενη μηχανική στρωμάτωση. Από αυτές τις κατανομές επιλέχθηκε μια ομάδα δεκατεσσάρων ρηγμάτων που αποτελούν σαφώς προσδιορισμένες σεισμικές πηγές και κυριαρχούν σε περιοχές με υψηλή σεισμικότητα. Ιδιαίτερα μελετήθηκε το ρήγμα των Κεγχρεών το οποίο είναι παρακείμενο σημαντικών υποδομών και στο οποίο πραγματοποιήθηκε γεωμορφολογική ανάλυση που απέδειξε ότι όλο το ρήγμα είναι ενεργό, αλλά και παλαιοσεισμολογική εκσκαφή στην οποία αναγνωρίστηκαν τρία τουλάχιστον σεισμικά γεγονότα μεγέθους 6.3 με κυμαινόμενη περίοδο επανάληψης. Τέλος, για αυτή την ομάδα ρηγμάτων κατασκευάστηκαν δενδροδιαγράμματα εκτίμησης της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας από τα οποία υπολογίστηκε η ένταση Arias με τη χρήση διαφορετικής βαρύτητας εμπειρικών σχέσεων. Συνεκτιμώντας τη γωνία κλίσης του πρανούς, την επικρατούσα λιθολογία στην επικεντρική περιοχή καθώς και τα όρια της έντασης Arias εντοπίστηκαν θέσεις που εμφανίζονται επιδεκτικές σε διάφορους τύπους δευτερογενών φαινομένων, όπως ρευστοποιήσεις, ολισθήσεις και πτώσεις βράχων. Οι παράκτιες περιοχές των πόλεων του Κιάτου της Κορίνθου, του Λουτρακίου και οι βόρειες ακτές της χερσονήσου της Περαχώρας φαίνεται να επηρεάζονται σε σημαντικότερο βαθμό από την ενεργοποίηση τέτοιων φαινομένων. / The area of the eastern part of the Gulf of Corinth constitutes a rapid developing region hosting significant infrastructures. The significant seismic activity put a threat on this development as it has been noticed during historical time, triggering extensive collapses, human casualties and total disaster of cities. Today new scientific methods are implemented on the spectacular fault arrays that dissect the graben and whose activity is related to the important seismic events, occurred in the area. The scaling properties estimation of the active faults along the Gulf, both onshore and offshore, defines the fractal distributions of both populations. These fractal distributions show that the main fault growth process is the linkage and interaction between smaller fault segments. The offshore population is characterized by an earlier stage of this process, whereas the onshore population indicates a more mature stage of deformation. Additionally, the subdivision of fault length above and beyond 5km represents a maximum bound, where the change in the growth process takes place, but it can also be associated with the underlying crustal mechanical layering. These fractal distributions determine a selection of a group of fourteen active faults that represent unambiguous seismic sources located on highly seismic areas. From this group, the Kencreai fault was especially studied due to its proximity to essential infrastructure. The geomorphology and palaeoseimological analysis of this fault reveal that the fault is active all along its trace, hosting at least three major seismic events with maximum magnitude 6.3 and fluctuant recurrence interval. Finally, for this fault group, seismic hazard assessment logic trees are produced, that calculate the Arias intensity considering the uncertainty of different attenuation relationships. By evaluating the slope gradient, the lithology conditions in the epicentral area and the upper bounds of the Arias intensity, areas highly susceptible to future site effects such as liquefactions, landslides and rock falls are located. The coastal areas of the Kiato, Corinthos and Loutraki cities and the north coast of the Perachora peninsula as well seem more influenced by site effects induced by major earthquakes.

Regional landslide risk, as it is most commonly defined, is a product of the following: hazard, vulnerability and exposed population. The first objective of this research project is to estimate the regional landslide hazard level by calculating its probability of slope failure based on maximum slope angles, as estimated using data provided by digital elevation models (DEM). Furthermore, it addresses the impact of DEM resolution on perceived slope angles, using local averaging theory, by comparing the results predicted from DEM datasets of differing resolutions. Although the likelihood that a landslide will occur can be predicted with a hazard assessment model, the extent of the damage inflicted upon a region is a function of vulnerability. This introduces the second objective of this research project: vulnerability assessment. The third and final objective concerns the impact of urbanization and population growth on landslide risk levels.

Planet earth is restless and one cannot control its inside activities and vibrations those leading to natural hazards. Earthquake is one of such natural hazards that have affected the mankind most. Most of the causalities due to earthquakes happened not because of earthquakes as such, but because of poorly designed structures which could not withstand the earthquake forces. The improper building construction techniques adopted and the high population density are the major causes of the heavy damage due to earthquakes. The damage due to earthquakes can be reduced by following proper construction techniques, taking into consideration of appropriate forces on the structure that can be caused due to future earthquakes. The steps towards seismic hazard evaluation are very essential to estimate an optimal and reliable value of possible earthquake ground motion during a specific time period. These predicted values can be an input to assess the seismic vulnerability of an area based on which new construction and the restoration works of existing structures can be carried out. A large number of devastating earthquakes have occurred in India in the past. The northern region of India, which is along the plate boundary of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate, is seismically very active. The north eastern movement of Indian plate has caused deformation in the Himalayan region, Tibet and the North Eastern India. Along the Himalayan belt, the Indian and Eurasian plates converge at the rate of about 50 mm/year (Bilham 2004; Jade 2004). The North East Indian (NEI) region is known as one of the most seismically active regions in the world. However the peninsular India, which is far away from the plate boundary, is a stable continental region, which is considered to be of moderate seismic activity. Even though, the activity is considered to be moderate in the Peninsular India, world’s deadliest earthquake occurred in this region (Bhuj earthquake 2001). The rapid drifting of Indian plate towards Himalayas in the north east direction with a high velocity along with its low plate thickness might be the cause of high seismicity of the Indian region. Bureau of Indian Standard has published a seismic zonation map in 1962 and revised it in 1966, 1970, 1984 and 2002. The latest version of the seismic zoning map of India assigns four levels of seismicity for the entire Country in terms of different zone factors. The main drawback of the seismic zonation code of India (BIS-1893, 2002) is that, it is based on the past seismic activity and not based on a scientific seismic hazard analysis. Several seismic hazard studies, which were taken up in the recent years, have shown that the hazard values given by BIS-1893 (2002) need to be revised (Raghu Kanth and Iyengar 2006; Vipin et al. 2009; Mahajan et al. 2009 etc.). These facts necessitate a comprehensive study for evaluating the seismic hazard of India and development of a seismic zonation map of India based on the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values. The objective of this thesis is to estimate the seismic hazard of entire India using updated seismicity data based on the latest and different methodologies. The major outcomes of the thesis can be summarized as follows. An updated earthquake catalog that is uniform in moment magnitude, has been prepared for India and adjoining areas for the period till 2010. Region specific magnitude scaling relations have been established for the study region, which facilitated the generation of a homogenous earthquake catalog. By carefully converting the original magnitudes to unified MW magnitudes, we have removed a major obstacle for consistent assessment of seismic hazards in India. The earthquake catalog was declustered to remove the aftershocks and foreshocks. Out of 203448 events in the raw catalog, 75.3% were found to be dependent events and remaining 50317 events were identified as main shocks of which 27146 events were of MW ≥ 4. The completeness analysis of the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website A quantitative study of the spatial distribution of the seismicity rate across India and its vicinity has been performed. The lower b values obtained in shield regions imply that the energy released in these regions is mostly from large magnitude events. The b value of northeast India and Andaman Nicobar region is around unity which implies that the energy released is compatible for both smaller and larger events. The effect of aftershocks in the seismicity parameters was also studied. Maximum likelihood estimations of the b value from the raw and declustered earthquake catalogs show significant changes leading to a larger proportion of low magnitude events as foreshocks and aftershocks. The inclusions of dependent events in the catalog affect the relative abundance of low and high magnitude earthquakes. Thus, greater inclusion of dependent events leads to higher b values and higher activity rate. Hence, the seismicity parameters obtained from the declustered catalog is valid as they tend to follow a Poisson distribution. Mmax does not significantly change, since it depends on the largest observed magnitude rather than the inclusion of dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks). The spatial variation of the seismicity parameters can be used as a base to identify regions of similar characteristics and to delineate regional seismic source zones. Further, Regions of similar seismicity characteristics were identified based on fault alignment, earthquake event distribution and spatial variation of seismicity parameters. 104 regional seismic source zones were delineated which are inevitable input to seismic hazard analysis. Separate subsets of the catalog were created for each of these zones and seismicity analysis was done for each zone after estimating the cutoff magnitude. The frequency magnitude distribution plots of all the source zones can be found at http://civil.iisc.ernet.in/~sitharam . There is considerable variation in seismicity parameters and magnitude of completeness across the study area. The b values for various regions vary from a lower value of 0.5 to a higher value of 1.5. The a value for different zones vary from a lower value of 2 to a higher value of 10. The analysis of seismicity parameters shows that there is considerable difference in the earthquake recurrence rate and Mmax in India. The coordinates of these source zones and the seismicity parameters a, b & Mmax estimated can be directly input into the Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The seismic hazard evaluation of the Indian landmass based on a state-of-the art Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) study has been performed using the classical Cornell–McGuire approach with different source models and attenuation relations. The most recent knowledge of seismic activity in the region has been used to evaluate the hazard incorporating uncertainty associated with different modeling parameters as well as spatial and temporal uncertainties. The PSHA has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude in hazard computations, and ground-motion attenuation relationships). The hazard maps have been produced for horizontal ground motion at bedrock level (Shear wave velocity ≥ 3.6 km/s) and compared with the earlier studies like Bhatia et al., 1999 (India and adjoining areas); Seeber et al, 1999 (Maharashtra state); Jaiswal and Sinha, 2007 (Peninsular India); Sitharam and Vipin, 2011 (South India); Menon et al., 2010 (Tamilnadu). It was observed that the seismic hazard is moderate in Peninsular shield (except the Kutch region of Gujarat), but the hazard in the North and Northeast India and Andaman-Nicobar region is very high. The ground motion predicted from the present study will not only give hazard values for design of structures, but also will help in deciding the locations of important structures such as nuclear power plants. The evaluation of surface level PGA values is of very high importance in the engineering design. The surface level PGA values were evaluated for the entire study area for four NEHRP site classes using appropriate amplification factors. If the site class at any location in the study area is known, then the ground level PGA values can be obtained from the respective map. In the absence of VS30 values, the site classes can be identified based on local geological conditions. Thus this method provides a simplified methodology for evaluating the surface level PGA values. The evaluation of PGA values for different site classes were evaluated based on the PGA values obtained from the DSHA and PSHA. This thesis also presents VS30 characterization of entire country based on the topographic gradient using existing correlations. Further, surface level PGA contour map was developed based on the same. Liquefaction is the conversion of formally stable cohesionless soils to a fluid mass, due to increase in pore pressure and is prominent in areas that have groundwater near the surface and sandy soil. Soil liquefaction has been observed during the earthquakes because of the sudden dynamic earthquake load, which in turn increases the pore pressure. The evaluation of liquefaction potential involves evaluation of earthquake loading and evaluation of soil resistance to liquefaction. In the present work, the spatial variation of the SPT value required to prevent liquefaction has been estimated using a probabilistic methodology, for entire India. To summarize, the major contribution of this thesis are the development of region specific magnitude correlations suitable for Indian subcontinent and an updated homogeneous earthquake catalog for India that is uniform in moment magnitude scale. The delineation and characterization of regional seismic source zones for a vast country like India is a unique contribution, which requires reasonable observation and engineering judgement. Considering complex seismotectonic set up of the country, the present work employed numerous methodologies (DSHA and PSHA) in analyzing the seismic hazard using appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainties considering alternative models (For Source model, Mmax estimation and Ground motion prediction equations) to estimate the PGA value at bedrock level. Further, VS30 characterization of India was done based on the topographic gradient, as a first level approach, which facilitated the development of surface level PGA map for entire country using appropriate amplification factors. Above factors make the present work very unique and comprehensive touching various aspects of seismic hazard. It is hoped that the methodology and outcomes presented in this thesis will be beneficial to practicing engineers and researchers working in the area of seismology and geotechnical engineering in particular and to the society as a whole.

Tee present research focuses on seismic hazard studies for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in the North-East India with taking into account the complex sesismotectonic characteristics of the region. This area is more prone to earthquake hazard due to complex subsurface geology, peculiar topographical distribution, continuous crustal deformation due to the under thrusting of Indian and the Eurasian plates, a possible seismic gap, and many active intraplate sources identified within this region. The study area encompasses major seismic source zones such as Indo Burmese Range (IBR), Shillong Plateau (SP), Eastern Himalayan arc (EH), Bengal Basin (BB), Mishmi Thrust (MT) and Naga Thrust (NT). Five historical earthquakes of magnitude Mw>8 have been listed in the study area and 15 events of magnitude Mw>7 have occurred in last 100 years. Indian seismic code BIS-1893-2002 places the study area with a high level of seismic hazard in the country (i.e. seismic zone V). More than 60% of the area is hilly steep-terrain in nature and the altitude varies from 0 to 3000 meters. Recent works have located a seismic gap, known as the Assam gap since 1950 between the EH, SP, and IBR with the Eurasian plate. Various researchers have estimated the return period, and a large size earthquake is expected in this region any time in future. The area is also highly prone to liquefaction, since rivers in Tripura (Gomati, Howrah, Dhalai, Manu, Bijay, Jeri, Feni) and the rivers in Mizoram (Chhimtuipui, Tlawng, Tut, Tuirial and Tuivawl etc.) are scattered throughout the study area where soil deposits are of sedimentary type. In 2011, both the states together have experienced 37 earthquakes (including foreshocks and aftershocks) with magnitudes ranging from 2.9 to 6.9. Of these events, there were 23 earthquakes (M>4) of magnitudes M6.4 (Feb 4th 2011), M6.7 (March 24th 2011), M6.9 (Sept.18th 2011), M6.4 (October 30th 2011), M6.9 (Dec 13th 2011), M5.8 (Nov 21st 2011), M5 (Aug 18th 2011), M4.9 (July 28th 2011), M4.6 (Dec 15th 2011), M4.6 (Jan 21st 2011), M4.5 (Dec 9th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 21th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 17th 2011), M4.5 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.3 (Oct 10th 2011), M4.3 (Sept 22nd 2011), M4.3 (April 4th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 9th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.1 (April 29th 2011), M4.1 (Feb 22nd 2011), M4 (June 9th 2011), and M4 (Dec 2nd 2011) which occurred within this region [source: IMD (Indian Metrological Department), India]. The earthquake (M6.9) that occurred on Sept. 18th 2011 is known as the Sikkim earthquake, and it caused immense destruction including building collapse, landslides, causalities, disrupted connectivity by road damages and other infrastructural damages in Sikkim state as well as the entire North-East India. In the cities of Agartala and Aizawl of Tripura and Mizoram, construction of high rise building is highly restricted by the Government. Being the capital city, many modern infrastructures are still pending for growth of the city planning. Although many researchers have studied and reported about the status of seismicity in North-East Region of India, very few detailed studies have been carried out in this region except Guwahati, Sikkim and Manipur where almost the whole of the study area is highly vulnerable to severe shaking, amplification, liquefaction, and landslide. From the available literature, no specific study exists for Tripura and Mizoram till date. In the present research, seismic hazard assessment has been performed based on spatial-temporal distribution of seismicity and fault rupture characteristics of the region. The seismic events were collected from regions covering about 500 km from the political boundary of the study area. The earthquake data were collected from various national and international seismological agencies such as the IMD, Geological Survey of India (GSI), United State Geological Survey (USGS), and International Seismological Centre (ISC) etc. As the collected events were in different magnitude scales, all the events were homogenized to a unified moment magnitude scale using recent magnitude conversion relations (region specific) developed by the authors for North-East Region of India. The dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks) were removed using declustering algorithm and in total 3251 declustered events (main shocks) were identified in the study area since 1731 to 2011. The data set contains 825 events of MW < 4, 1279 events of MW from 4 to 4.9, 996 events MW from 5 to 5.9, 131 events MW from 6 to 6.9, 15 events MW from 7 to 7.9 and 5 events MW ≥8. The statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness (Stepp, 1972). The whole region was divided into six seismic source zones based on the updated seismicity characteristics, fault rupture mechanism, size of earthquake magnitude and the epicentral depth. Separate catalogs were used for each zone, and seismicity parameters a and b were estimated for each source zone and other necessary parameters such as mean magnitude (Mmean), Mmax, Mmin, Mc and recurrence periods were also estimated. Toposheets/vector maps of the study area were collected and seismic sources were identified and characterized as line, point, and areal sources. Linear seismic sources were identified from the Seismotectonic atlas (SEISAT, 2000) published by the GSI, in addition to the source details collected from available literature and remote sensing images. The SEISAT map contains 43 maps presented in 42 sheets covering entire India and adjacent countries with 1:1million scale. Sheets representing the features of the study area were scanned, digitized and georeferenced using MapInfo 10.0 version. After this, tectonic features and seismicity events were superimposed on the map of the study area to prepare a Seismotectonic Map with a scale of 1:1million. In seismic hazard assessment, a state of art well known methodologies (deterministic and probabilistic) was used. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) procedure, hazard assessment is based on the minimum distance between sources to site considering the maximum magnitude occurred at each source. In hazard estimation procedure a lot of uncertainties are involved, which can be explained by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) procedure related to the source, magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. The attenuation relations proposed by Atkinson and Boore (2003), and Gupta (2010) are used in this analysis. Because in this region two type activities are mostly observed, regions such as SP, and EH are under plate boundary zone whereas IBR is under subduction process. These equations (GMPEs) were validated with the observed PGA (Peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. The hazard curves for all six major sources were prepared and compiled to get the total hazard curve which represents the cumulative hazard of all sources. Evaluation of PGA, Sa (0.2s and 1.0s) parameters at bedrock level were estimated considering a grid size of 5 km x 5 km, and spectral acceleration values corresponding to a certain level of probability (2% and 10%) were done to develop uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for both the cities (Agartala and Aizawl). To carry out the seismic microzonation of Agartala and Aizawl cities, a detailed study using geotechnical and geophysical data has been carried out for site characterization and evaluation of site response according to NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazard Response Program) soil classifications (A, B, C, D, and E-type). Seismic site characterization, which is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to have the idea about the average dynamic behavior of soil deposits, and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. A series of geophysical tests at selected locations have been conducted using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method to obtain direct shear wave velocity profiles from in situ measurements for both the cities. Based on the present study a major part of Agartala city falls under site class D, very few portions come under site class E. On the other hand, Aizawl city comes under site class C. Next, a detailed site response analysis has been carried out for both the cities. This study addresses the influence of local geology and soil conditions on incoming ground motion. Subsurface geotechnical (SPT) and geophysical (MASW) data have been obtained and used to estimate surface level response. The vulnerable seismic source has been identified based on DSHA. Due to the lack of strong motion time history of the study area, synthetic ground motion time histories have been generated using point source seismological model (Boore 2003) at bedrock level based on fault rupture parameters such as stress drop, quality factor, frequency range, magnitude, hypocentral distance etc. Dynamic properties such as the shear modulus (G) and damping ratios (ζ) have been evaluated from the soil properties obtained from SPT bore log data collected from different agencies such as PWD (Public works Department), and Urban Development Dept. of the State Government, in situ shear wave velocity has been obtained from MASW survey in different locations, and following this, a site response analysis has been carried out using SHAKE-2000 to calculate the responses at the ground surface in combination of different magnitudes, distances and epicentral depth for a particular site class. An amplification factor was estimated as the ratio of the PGA at the ground surface to the PGA at bedrock level, a regression analysis was carried out to evaluate period dependant site coefficients, and hence, the period dependant hazard impact on the ground surface could be calculated to obtain the spatial variation of PGA over the study area. Further, liquefaction potential of the site (Agartala) was also evaluated using available SPT bore log data collected and using presently estimated surface level PGA. The results are presented in the form of liquefaction hazard map representing as a Factor of safety (FS) against liquefaction with various depths such as 1.5m, 10m, and 15m respectively. It has been seen that Agartala city shows highly prone to liquefaction even up to 15 m depth. Hence, site specific study is highly recommended for implementing any important project. The liquefaction hazard assessment could not be conducted for the Aizawl city because of non availability of the SPT-N data, however, the city stands on hills/mountains, and therefore, such a study is not applicable in this area. Further, seismic microzonation maps for both the cities have been prepared considering Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) which support to the Eigen value properties of the system. Two types of hazard maps have been developed, one using deterministic and another using the probabilistic seismic microzonation maps. These maps can be directly used as inputs for earthquake resistant design, and disaster mitigation planning of the study area. However, an investigation has also been made in forecasting a major earthquake (Mw>6) in North-East India using several probabilistic models such as Gamma, Weibull and lognormal models. IBR and EH show a high probability of occurrences in the next 5 years (i.e. 2013-2018) with >90% probability.

La création d’inventaires de glissements de terrain sert de base à l’évaluation quantitative de l’aléa et à la gestion du risque. Les cartes d’inventaires de mouvements gravitaires sont produites en utilisant des méthodes conventionnelles (campagnes de mesures de terrain, interprétation visuelle de photographies aériennes) et par des techniques de télédétection plus innovantes. Une des techniques les plus prometteuses pour la détection et la cartographie des glissements de terrain fait appel à la mesure de la déformation du sol par interférométrie radar satellitaire (InSAR). Cette thèse est consacrée à la constitution d’un inventaire multi-dates à partir de données multi-sources (incluant les données InSAR) en vue d’évaluer de façon quantitative l’aléa glissement de terrain. Les méthodes associent l’analyse de produits d’Observation de la Terre et des modélisations statistiques pour la caractérisation de l’aléa dans la vallée de l’Ubaye, une région rurale et montagneuse des Alpes du Sud. Elles ont été développées à l’échelle du versant (1:5.000-1:2.000) et à l’échelle régionale (1:25.000- 1:10.000). Pour la création des inventaires, cette étude propose une interprétation combinée de séries temporelles d’images SAR, de photographies aériennes, de cartes géomorphologiques, de rapports historiques et de campagnes de terrain. A l’échelle locale, une méthodologie d'interprétation guidée par la géomorphologie et utilisant l’InSAR a été proposée pour identifier les champs de déplacement des glissements de terrain et mesurer leur évolution. A l’échelle régionale, la distribution spatio-temporelle des glissements de terrain a été caractérisée et l’aléa a été calculé à partir des probabilités d’occurrence spatiale et temporelle pour une intensité donnée des phénomènes. L’occurrence spatiale est estimée grâce à un modèle multivarié (régression logistique). L’occurrence temporelle des mouvements gravitaires est évaluée grâce à un modèle de probabilité de Poisson permettant de calculer la probabilité de dépassement (incluant ou non un seuil de surface) pour plusieurs périodes de retour. Plusieurs unités d'analyse spatiale ont été utilisées pour la modélisation ; les résultats démontrent clairement leur influence sur les résultats. L’analyse de l’aléa a été réalisée sur quelques cas spécifiques. Des relations entre les (ré)activations de glissements de terrain et les facteurs déclenchants sont proposées. / The analysis of landslide inventories is the basis for quantitative hazard assessment. Landslide inventory maps are prepared using conventional methods (field surveys, visual interpretation of aerial photographs) and new remote sensing techniques. One of the most promising techniques for landslide detection and mapping is related to the measurement of the ground deformation by satellite radar interferometry (InSAR).This doctoral thesis is dedicated to the preparation of a multi-date inventory, from multi-source data, including InSAR, for a quantitative assessment of landslide hazard. The methods associate the analysis of Earth Observation products and statistical modelling for the characterization of landslide hazard in a rural and mountainous region of the South French Alps. They have been developed at the slope (1:5000-1:2000) and the regional (1:25.000-1:10.000) scales. For the creation of a multi-date inventory, this study developed a combined interpretation of time series of SAR images, aerial photographs, geomorphological maps, historical reports and field surveys. At the slope-scale, a geomorphologically-guided methodology using InSAR was proposed to identify landslide displacement patterns and measure their kinematic evolution. At regional scale, spatio-temporal distribution of landslides is characterised and hazard is assessed by computing spatial and temporal probabilities of occurrence for a given intensity of the phenomena. The spatial occurrence is evaluated using a multivariate model (logistic regression). The temporal occurrence of landslide is estimated with a Poisson probability model to compute exceedance probabilities for several return periods. Different mapping units were used in the modelling, and their influence on the results is discussed. Analysis of landslide hazard is then proposed for some particular hotspots. Relationships between landslide (re)activations and triggering factors are envisaged.

Many researchers have pointed out that the accumulation of strain energy in the Penninsular Indian Shield region may lead to earthquakes of significant magnitude(Srinivasan and Sreenivas, 1977; Valdiya, 1998; Purnachandra Rao, 1999; Seeber et al., 1999; Ramalingeswara Rao, 2000; Gangrade and Arora, 2000). However very few studies have been carried out to quantify the seismic hazard of the entire Pennisular Indian region. In the present study the seismic hazard evaluation of South Indian region (8.0° N - 20° N; 72° E - 88° E) was done using the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard approaches. Effects of two of the important geotechnical aspects of seismic hazard, site response and liquefaction, have also been evaluated and the results are presented in this work. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at ground surface level was evaluated by considering the local site effects. The liquefaction potential index (LPI) and factor of safety against liquefaction wee evaluated based on performance based liquefaction potential evaluation method. The first step in the seismic hazard analysis is to compile the earthquake catalogue. Since a comprehensive catalogue was not available for the region, it was complied by collecting data from different national (Guaribidanur Array, Indian Meterorological Department (IMD), National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) Hyderabad and Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) Kalpakkam etc.) and international agencies (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), International Seismological Centre (ISC), United States Geological Survey (USGS) etc.). The collected data was in different magnitude scales and hence they were converted to a single magnitude scale. The magnitude scale which is chosen in this study is the moment magnitude scale, since it the most widely used and the most advanced scientific magnitude scale. The declustering of earthquake catalogue was due to remove the related events and the completeness of the catalogue was analysed using the method suggested by Stepp (1972). Based on the complete part of the catalogue the seismicity parameters were evaluated for the study area. Another important step in the seismic hazard analysis is the identification of vulnerable seismic sources. The different types of seismic sources considered are (i) linear sources (ii) point sources (ii) areal sources. The linear seismic sources were identified based on the seismotectonic atlas published by geological survey of India (SEISAT, 2000). The required pages of SEISAT (2000) were scanned and georeferenced. The declustered earthquake data was superimposed on this and the sources which were associated with earthquake magnitude of 4 and above were selected for further analysis. The point sources were selected using a method similar to the one adopted by Costa et.al. (1993) and Panza et al. (1999) and the areal sources were identified based on the method proposed by Frankel et al. (1995). In order to map the attenuation properties of the region more precisely, three attenuation relations, viz. Toto et al. (1997), Atkinson and Boore (2006) and Raghu Kanth and Iyengar (2007) were used in this study. The two types of uncertainties encountered in seismic hazard analysis are aleatory and epistemic. The uncertainty of the data is the cause of aleatory variability and it accounts for the randomness associated with the results given by a particular model. The incomplete knowledge in the predictive models causes the epistemic uncertainty (modeling uncertainty). The aleatory variability of the attenuation relations are taken into account in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by considering the standard deviation of the model error. The epistemic uncertainty is considered by multiple models for the evaluation of seismic hazard and combining them using a logic tree. Two different methodologies were used in the evaluation of seismic hazard, based on deterministic and probabilistic analysis. For the evaluation of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values, a new set of programs were developed in MATLAB and the entire analysis was done using these programs. In the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) two types of seismic sources, viz. linear and point sources, were considered and three attenuation relations were used. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1° x 0.1° (about 12000 grid points) and the PHA and Sa values were evaluated for the mean and 84th percentile values at the centre of each of the grid points. A logic tree approach, using two types of sources and three attenuation relations, was adopted for the evaluation of PHA and Sa values. Logic tree permits the use of alternative models in the hazard evaluation and appropriate weightages can be assigned to each model. By evaluating the 84th percentile values, the uncertainty in spectral acceleration values can also be considered (Krinitzky, 2002). The spatial variations of PHA and Sa values for entire South India are presented in this work. The DSHA method will not consider the uncertainties involved in the earthquake recurrence process, hypocentral distance and the attenuation properties. Hence the seismic hazard analysis was done based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the evaluation of PHA and Sa values were done by considering the uncertainties involved in the earthquake occurrence process. The uncertainties in earthquake recurrence rate, hypocentral location and attenuation characteristic were considered in this study. For evaluating the seismicity parameters and the maximum expected earthquake magnitude (mmax) the study area was divided into different source zones. The division of study area was done based on the spatial variation of the seismicity parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ and the mmax values were evaluated for each of these zones and these values were used in the analysis. Logic tree approach was adopted in the analysis and this permits the use of multiple models. Twelve different models (2 sources x 2 zones x 3 attenuation) were used in the analysis and based on the weightage for each of them; the final PHA and Sa values at bed rock level were evaluated. These values were evaluated for a grid size of 0.1° x 0.1° and the spatial variation of these values for return periods of 475 and 2500 years (10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) are presented in this work. Both the deterministic and probabilistic analyses highlighted that the seismic hazard is high at Koyna region. The PHA values obtained for Koyna, Bangalore and Ongole regions are higher than the values given by BIS-1893(2002). The values obtained for south western part of the study area, especially for parts of kerala are showing the PHA values less than what is provided in BIS-1893(2002). The 84th percentile values given DSHA can be taken as the upper bound PHA and Sa values for South India. The main geotechnical aspects of earthquake hazard are site response and seismic soil liquefaction. When the seismic waves travel from the bed rock through the overlying soil to the ground surface the PHA and Sa values will get changed. This amplification or de-amplification of the seismic waves depends on the type of the overlying soil. The assessment of site class can be done based on different site classification schemes. In the present work, the surface level peak ground acceleration (PGA) values were evaluated based on four different site classes suggested by NEHRP (BSSC, 2003) and the PGA values were developed for all the four site classes based on non-linear site amplification technique. Based on the geotechnical site investigation data, the site class can be determined and then the appropriate PGA and Sa values can be taken from the respective PGA maps. Response spectra were developed for the entire study area and the results obtained for three major cities are discussed here. Different methods are suggested by various codes to Smooth the response spectra. The smoothed design response spectra were developed for these cities based on the smoothing techniques given by NEHRP (BSSC, 2003), IS code (BIS-1893,2002) and Eurocode-8 (2003). A Comparison of the results obtained from these studies is also presented in this work. If the site class at any location in the study area is known, then the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values can be obtained from the respective map. This provides a simplified methodology for evaluating the PGA values for a vast area like South India. Since the surface level PGA values were evaluated for different site classes, the effects of surface topography and basin effects were not taken into account. The analysis of response spectra clearly indicates the variation of peak spectral acceleration values for different site classes and the variation of period of oscillation corresponding to maximum Sa values. The comparison of the smoothed design response spectra obtained using different codal provisions suggest the use of NEHRP(BSSC, 2003) provisions. The conventional liquefaction analysis method takes into account only one earthquake magnitude and ground acceleration values. In order to overcome this shortfall, a performance based probabilistic approach (Kramer and Mayfield, 2007) was adopted for the liquefaction potential evaluation in the present work. Based on this method, the factor of safety against liquefaction and the SPT values required to prevent liquefaction for return periods of 475 and 2500 years were evaluated for Bangalore city. This analysis was done based on the SPT data obtained from 450 boreholes across Bangalore. A new method to evaluate the liquefaction return period based on CPT values is proposed in this work. To validate the new method, an analysis was done for Bangalore by converting the SPT values to CPT values and then the results obtained were compared with the results obtained using SPT values. The factor of safety against liquefaction at different depths were integrated using liquefaction potential index (LPI) method for Bangalore. This was done by calculating the factor of safety values at different depths based on a performance based method and then the LPI values were evaluated. The entire liquefaction potential analysis and the evaluation of LPI values were done using a set of newly developed programs in MATLAB. Based on the above approaches it is possible to evaluate the SPT and CPT values required to prevent liquefaction for any given return period. An analysis was done to evaluate the SPT and CPT values required to prevent liquefaction for entire South India for return periods of 475 and 2500 years. The spatial variations of these values are presented in this work. The liquefaction potential analysis of Bangalore clearly indicates that majority of the area is safe against liquefaction. The liquefaction potential map developed for South India, based on both SPT and CPT values, will help hazard mitigation authorities to identify the liquefaction vulnerable area. This in turn will help in reducing the liquefaction hazard.

Pour progresser dans la compréhension des mécanismes liés aux instabilités des cavités souterraines à partir de la réponse microsismique associée, l'effondrement provoqué d'une cavité saline (~ 200 m en diamètre), créée par dissolution, a été instrumentée sur un site d’exploitation de SOLVAY à Cerville-Buissoncourt (Lorraine, France). Pendant l’expérimentation un vaste ensemble des données a été enregistré (~ 50,000 fichiers d'événements) dont la majorité (80%) est constitué d’essaims microsismiques singuliers. Cette thèse présente une analyse et une interprétation détaillée de cette base de données microsismiques grâce à l’adaptation de méthodologies de traitement originales, dont les résultats améliorent notre compréhension sur la nature de la microsismicité liée aux processus de création et d’effondrement des cavités souterraines, ainsi que sur l’évaluation de l’aléa associé. Les résultats principaux obtenus sont les suivants : les événements microsismiques sont comparables à des petits séismes tectoniques ayant des magnitudes de moment variant entre -3 et 1. (ii) L’ensemble des événements microsismiques montre un mécanisme en cisaillement (double-couple) remarquablement stable et est associé à un régime en faille inverse d’orientation NO - SE, plongeant à environ 35°– 55°. Ce phénomène est probablement lié à la présence de fractures préexistantes sur le site. (iii) L'origine des essaims microsismiques est certainement due à l'incapacité du système à créer des fractures de grandes dimensions capables de libérer des contraintes très importantes. Cela est probablement lié aux propriétés mécaniques du toit de la cavité. (iv) Les périodes d’effondrements du toit de la cavité sont associées à une dynamique de forçage systématique et montrent une réponse microsismique particulière, qui peut-être décrite par des lois statistiques. Les travaux de recherche de cette thèse confirment également, que la surveillance microsismique peut être un outil puissant pour étudier les processus d’instabilité des cavités souterraines, même avec un nombre réduit de capteurs si des outils d’analyse adaptés sont utilisés / In order to improve our understanding of hazardous underground cavities and its microseismic response, the development and collapse of a ~ 200 m wide salt solution mining cavity was monitored at Cerville-Buissoncourt in the Lorraine basin in NE France. The majority of the obtained dataset (~80%) was constituted of numerous unusual microseismic swarming events (~50.000 event files). This thesis presents innovative methods able to treat this specific microseismic data set, whose results provide new and fundamental insights into the principal characteristics of caving and collapsing related microseismicity and hazard assessment of excavated underground formations. The principal results are as follows: (i) the individual microseismic events are comparable to small natural tectonic earthquakes with moment magnitudes Mw ranging from around -3 to 1. (ii) Source mechanisms for most microseismic events are remarkable stable and demonstrate a predominant thrust faulting (double-couple) regime with faults similarly oriented NW-SE, dipping 35°-55° , what might be related to the presence of systematically arranged pre-existing fractures. (iii) The origin of microseismic swarming is suggested in the incapacity to sustain larger strains and to release larger stresses, what seems to be related to the mechanical constitution of the rock strata overlying the cavity (i.e. low strength materials). (iv) Caving and collapsing periods at the cavity roof are associated with systematic, self- reinforcing dynamics and have a distinct microseismic response, clearly observable from statistical analysis, which can be precisely described by empirical laws. The performed analysis and interpretation of the microseismicity at Cerville-Buissoncourt has shown that microseismic monitoring is a useful tool to constrain the mechanical and dynamical characteristics of an evolving and collapsing hazardous underground cavity