A megacity is generally defined as a city that, together with its suburbs or recognised metropolitan area, has a total population of more than 10 million people. Air pollution in megacities is a major concern due to large increases of populations over the past decades. Increases of air pollution result from more anthropogenic emission sources in megacities, which include energy production, transportation, industrial activities and domestic fuel burning. In the developing parts of Africa, urbanisation is increasing rapidly, with growth rates of populations in cities of up to 5% per annum. The major driving forces for these population increases in African countries can be attributed to population growth, natural disasters and armed ethnic conflicts. In South Africa, 62% of the total population lived in cities in 2010. The rate of urbanisation growth is predicted to be 1.2% per annum. The largest urbanised city in South Africa is the Johannesburg-Pretoria conurbation (referred to as Jhb-Pta megacity) that has more than 10 million inhabitants. Johannesburg is considered to be the central hub of economic activities and -growth in South Africa. The larger conurbation includes all the suburbs of Johannesburg and Pretoria. In South Africa, household combustion and traffic emissions are major sources of pollutants in urbanised areas. The major pollutants emitted from these activities include nitrogen oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), particular matter (PM) and various organic compounds. The Jhb-Pta megacity is also located relatively close to large industrialised regions in South Africa, i.e. the Mpumalanga Highveld and the Vaal Triangle. Very few air quality modelling studies have been conducted for the Jhb-Pta megacity. According to the knowledge of the author, no literature existed in peer-reviewed publications at the time of the study. An in-depth modelling study was therefore conducted to assess the current state of air quality within the Jhb-Pta megacity. The main objectives were to optimise an existing photochemical box model for the Jhb-Pta megacity and to utilise the model to investigate the photochemical processes in the Jhb-Pta megacity and surrounding areas. In this investigation, ground-based measurements of criteria atmospheric pollutant species representative of the Jhb- Pta megacity were obtained to utilise as input data in the model, as well as to compare to results determined with the model. From the ground-based measurements, the possible contribution of the Jhb-Pta megacity to the NO2 hotspot observed over the South African Highveld from satellite retrievals was also contextualised. Five ground-based monitoring sites were situated strategically within the boundaries of the Jhb- Pta megacity to measure the direct influences of urban air pollution, e.g. traffic emissions, biomass burning and residential pollution. One measurement site was situated outside the modelling domain in order to collect rural background data in close proximity to the Jhb-Pta megacity. All the air quality stations continuously measured the criteria pollutants NOx, SO2 and O3. In addition, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) were measured at four sites. Passive sampling of NOx, SO2 , O3 and BTEX was also conducted in March and April 2010. Active data was obtained for March to May 2009, since no active measurements were available for the same year that passive sampling was performed due to logistical reasons. Meteorological parameters that included temperature, pressure and relative humidity were also measured at the monitoring stations Ground-based measurements provided a good indication of the state of the air quality in the Jhb-Pta megacity. The air quality levels of NO2 , SO2 , O3 and BTEX could be compared to other cities in the world. A distinct diurnal cycle was observed for NO2 at most of the stations. An early morning peak between 6:00 and 9:00 coincided with the time that commuters travel to work, whereas an evening peak between 18:00 and 21:00 could be attributed to traffic emissions and household combustion. Levels of O3, which is a secondary pollutant, peaked between 13:00 and 15:00. This diurnal pattern could be attributed to the photochemical formation of O3 from precursor species NO and VOCs. Toluene was predominantly higher than the other BTEX species. Benzene and xylene concentrations were in the same order, while the lowest levels were measured for ethyl benzene Ground-based measurements also indicated that the NO2 Highveld hotspot, which is well known in the international science community due to its prominence in satellite images, is accompanied by a second hotspot over the Jhb-Pta megacity. Peak NO2 pollution levels in the Jhb-Pta megacity exceeded the maximum daily Highveld values during the morning and evening rush hours. This result is significant for the more than 10 million people living in the Jhb-Pta megacity. Although satellite instruments have been extremely valuable in pointing out global hotspots, a limitation of satellite retrievals due to their specific overpass times has been presented. Chemical processes in the Jhb-Pta megacity were investigated by utilising an existing photochemical box model, i.e. MECCA-MCM. This model was further developed in this study and was termed the MECCA-MCM-UPWIND model. This model included horizontal and vertical mixing processes in the atmosphere. These processes were included to simulate the advection of upwind air masses into the modelling domain, as well as the entrainment from the troposphere resulting from the diurnal mixing layer (ML) height variation. Three processes, i.e. horizontal mixing, vertical mixing and ML height variation, were built into the MECCA-MCM- UPWIND model. The model was tested and evaluated to determine the efficiency of the model to represent atmospheric mixing processes. MECCA-MCM-UPWIND simulated horizontal mixing, vertical entrainment and ML height variations as expected. The input data for the model runs for the Jhb-Pta megacity modelling runs were either obtained from ground-based measurements or literature. Input data included meteorology, emission inventory, ML height and mixing ratios of the atmospheric chemical species. The chemical composition of the air mass entering the Jhb-Pta megacity was determined with MECCA-MCM- UPWIND. The concentrations and diurnal variability of criteria pollutant species were well predicted with the MECCA-MCM-UPWIND model. The day-time chemistry, especially, compared well, while slight under-predictions were observed for the night-time chemistry for most of the species. The differences observed between modelled and measured data could partially be ascribed to uncertainties associated with some of the input data obtained from literature used. The MECCA-MCM-UPWIND model was used to perform sensitivity studies on the influence of different parameters on O3 levels in the Jhb-Pta megacity. Possible scenarios to alter or mitigate pollution were also investigated. The results from the sensitivity analyses showed that O3 mixing ratios decreased within the Jhb-Pta megacity with increasing wind speeds. The contribution of local emissions to the change in the concentration of pollutants is reduced at higher wind speeds. It also indicated that the Mpumalanga Highveld can potentially be a source of NOx in the Jhb-Pta megacity that can lead to the titration of O3 . This also implies that if the air quality of the surrounding area improves, the concentration of the secondary pollutant O 3 will increase in the Jhb-Pta megacity due to the decrease in the titration of O3 . Sensitivity analyses also indicated that the Jhb-Pta megacity is a VOC-limited (or NOx-saturated) regime. Therefore, O3 reduction in the Jhb-Pta megacity will mostly be effective if VOC emissions are reduced. The same effect was observed in various cities world-wide where O3 increased when NOx emissions the Jhb-Pta megacity on the instantaneous production of O 3 was also investigated. A significant increase of approximately 23ppb O3 production was observed when changing from Euro-0 to Euro-3 vehicles with lower emissions of VOCs, NOx and CO. This compares with other modelled sensitivity studies of traffic emissions that also predict that future urban O 3 concentrations will increase in many cities by 2050 due to the reduction in the NOx titration of O3 despite the implementation of O3 control regulations / Thesis (PhD (Environmental Sciences))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

Cougars (Puma concolor) are a growing concern for managers of Pacific Rim National Park Reserve and Clayoquot Sound UNESCO Biosphere Reserve on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Since the mid-1990s, the frequency and intensity of human-cougar interactions have dramatically increased. Concurrently, these areas have become increasingly popular for human activities. The primary goal of my study was to recommend ways to reduce the potential risk of human-cougar interactions to ensure long-term conservation of cougars while minimizing risks to visitor safety. To achieve this goal, I examined the use of two noninvasive approaches. First, during 2005-2006, I compared the rate of detection, cost and time required for a detector dog, sign surveys, scented rub pads and remotely triggered cameras to detect cougars in coastal temperate rainforests. Sign surveys were the most effective method due to the availability of good tracking substrate throughout the study areas. Cameras were also practical because they could be used by less skilled personnel and had the capacity to detect several species of wildlife. Second, I demonstrated the utility of pre-existing data by analysing the spatiotemporal trends of human-cougar interactions on the West Coast Trail from 1993-2006. My results showed a moderate increase of reported human-cougar interactions (n = 157) despite a steady decline in hiker numbers across these years. I identified four areas where activities of people and cougars repeatedly overlapped (hotspots). In general, interaction locations were primarily associated with high human activity: near campsites and landscape characteristics that were associated with campsites (i.e., beaches and freshwater drainages >20 m wide). However, the distribution of hotspots suggests that the co-occurrence of human-use areas (e.g., campsites) and important travel routes (e.g., freshwater drainages and logging roads) used by cougars may increase the likelihood of interactions. These findings will allow protected area managers to proactively mitigate human-cougar conflict through visitor education and protocols that reduce people and cougars from intersecting in space and time.

Um modelo de elementos finitos de casca capaz de representar estruturas soldadas, sem adicionar erros significativos em termos da rigidez estrutural, poderia ser amplamente empregado em problemas dinâmicos em que o método da tensão estrutural (hot spot) é aplicado para análises de vida em fadiga. O âmbito deste trabalho é formular uma técnica de modelagem capaz de fazê-lo. Para alcançar esse objetivo, uma otimização paramétrica para a representação de estruturas soldadas através de elementos de casca foi realizada. As variáveis de projeto propostas na formulação empregada foram definidas como o comprimento do tamanho de perna e a espessura do elemento de casca representando o filete de solda. O foco da otimização foi encontrar uma faixa de espessura/tamanho de perna que não modificasse significativamente as primeiras frequências naturais e conseguisse entregar resultados similares aos obtidos por um modelo sólido. Programação linear sequencial foi empregada na otimização. A estrutura analisada foi do tipo T, com seção constante e espessura e profundidade diversas, sob diferentes modos de carregamento. Uma vez que os parâmetros ótimos foram encontrados, duas diferentes metodologias de modelagem foram propostas e comparadas com outras três bem estabelecidas e apresentadas em normas e na literatura. Os resultados foram comparados quanto às primeiras frequências naturais, massa total, tensão estrutural e vida em fadiga. / A finite element shell model capable of representing a welded structure without any significantly error on its stiffness could be widely applied to dynamic problems in which the structural stress method (hot-spot approach) is employed for fatigue analysis. The scope of the present work is to formulate a modeling technique capable of doing so. In order to accomplish it, a parametric optimization for simulating welded structures using shell elements is made, the design variables in the proposed formulation are defined as the weld leg length and thickness of the shell element representing the weld fillet. The main goal of the optimization was to find a range of thickness/leg length which would not change significantly the first natural frequencies, and still deliver results similar to the ones obtained by a solid model. Sequential linear programming optimizations are performed in a T-shaped structure under different loading scenarios, with constant section and different plate thicknesses and depths. Once the optimal parameters are found, two different modeling techniques are presented and compared with three well established methodologies presented in standards and the literature. The differences in the results are compared for first natural frequencies, total mass, hot spot stress and fatigue life.

Um modelo de elementos finitos de casca capaz de representar estruturas soldadas, sem adicionar erros significativos em termos da rigidez estrutural, poderia ser amplamente empregado em problemas dinâmicos em que o método da tensão estrutural (hot spot) é aplicado para análises de vida em fadiga. O âmbito deste trabalho é formular uma técnica de modelagem capaz de fazê-lo. Para alcançar esse objetivo, uma otimização paramétrica para a representação de estruturas soldadas através de elementos de casca foi realizada. As variáveis de projeto propostas na formulação empregada foram definidas como o comprimento do tamanho de perna e a espessura do elemento de casca representando o filete de solda. O foco da otimização foi encontrar uma faixa de espessura/tamanho de perna que não modificasse significativamente as primeiras frequências naturais e conseguisse entregar resultados similares aos obtidos por um modelo sólido. Programação linear sequencial foi empregada na otimização. A estrutura analisada foi do tipo T, com seção constante e espessura e profundidade diversas, sob diferentes modos de carregamento. Uma vez que os parâmetros ótimos foram encontrados, duas diferentes metodologias de modelagem foram propostas e comparadas com outras três bem estabelecidas e apresentadas em normas e na literatura. Os resultados foram comparados quanto às primeiras frequências naturais, massa total, tensão estrutural e vida em fadiga. / A finite element shell model capable of representing a welded structure without any significantly error on its stiffness could be widely applied to dynamic problems in which the structural stress method (hot-spot approach) is employed for fatigue analysis. The scope of the present work is to formulate a modeling technique capable of doing so. In order to accomplish it, a parametric optimization for simulating welded structures using shell elements is made, the design variables in the proposed formulation are defined as the weld leg length and thickness of the shell element representing the weld fillet. The main goal of the optimization was to find a range of thickness/leg length which would not change significantly the first natural frequencies, and still deliver results similar to the ones obtained by a solid model. Sequential linear programming optimizations are performed in a T-shaped structure under different loading scenarios, with constant section and different plate thicknesses and depths. Once the optimal parameters are found, two different modeling techniques are presented and compared with three well established methodologies presented in standards and the literature. The differences in the results are compared for first natural frequencies, total mass, hot spot stress and fatigue life.

Um modelo de elementos finitos de casca capaz de representar estruturas soldadas, sem adicionar erros significativos em termos da rigidez estrutural, poderia ser amplamente empregado em problemas dinâmicos em que o método da tensão estrutural (hot spot) é aplicado para análises de vida em fadiga. O âmbito deste trabalho é formular uma técnica de modelagem capaz de fazê-lo. Para alcançar esse objetivo, uma otimização paramétrica para a representação de estruturas soldadas através de elementos de casca foi realizada. As variáveis de projeto propostas na formulação empregada foram definidas como o comprimento do tamanho de perna e a espessura do elemento de casca representando o filete de solda. O foco da otimização foi encontrar uma faixa de espessura/tamanho de perna que não modificasse significativamente as primeiras frequências naturais e conseguisse entregar resultados similares aos obtidos por um modelo sólido. Programação linear sequencial foi empregada na otimização. A estrutura analisada foi do tipo T, com seção constante e espessura e profundidade diversas, sob diferentes modos de carregamento. Uma vez que os parâmetros ótimos foram encontrados, duas diferentes metodologias de modelagem foram propostas e comparadas com outras três bem estabelecidas e apresentadas em normas e na literatura. Os resultados foram comparados quanto às primeiras frequências naturais, massa total, tensão estrutural e vida em fadiga. / A finite element shell model capable of representing a welded structure without any significantly error on its stiffness could be widely applied to dynamic problems in which the structural stress method (hot-spot approach) is employed for fatigue analysis. The scope of the present work is to formulate a modeling technique capable of doing so. In order to accomplish it, a parametric optimization for simulating welded structures using shell elements is made, the design variables in the proposed formulation are defined as the weld leg length and thickness of the shell element representing the weld fillet. The main goal of the optimization was to find a range of thickness/leg length which would not change significantly the first natural frequencies, and still deliver results similar to the ones obtained by a solid model. Sequential linear programming optimizations are performed in a T-shaped structure under different loading scenarios, with constant section and different plate thicknesses and depths. Once the optimal parameters are found, two different modeling techniques are presented and compared with three well established methodologies presented in standards and the literature. The differences in the results are compared for first natural frequencies, total mass, hot spot stress and fatigue life.

The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is a protected species that is vulnerable to both anthropogenic and natural causes of mortality. The ability of wildlife managers to oversee regulation of this species is based on available abundance estimates and mortality data. Using existing manatee mortality data collected by Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) from 1974-2012, this study focuses on identifying significant spatial clusters of high values or “hotspots” of manatee mortality and the temporal patterns of these hotspots using the novel “emerging hotspot analysis” ArcGIS tool. The categories of manatee mortality included in this analysis were watercraft-related, perinatal, cold-stress, and other natural (which includes red tide) and were classified into five hotspot pattern categories. Of interest were the locations where consecutive or new hotspot patterns were identified among the four categories of manatee mortality included in this analysis. Consecutive hotspot clusters were found near Tampa Bay (which includes parts of Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Manatee Counties) and in the counties of Hernando/Pasco, Monroe, Palm Beach/Broward/Miami-Dade, St. Johns/Flagler, and Citrus. New hotspot clusters were found in Tampa Bay (which includes parts of Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Manatee Counties) and in the counties of Nassau, Wakulla, Charlotte/Lee, St. Lucie/Martin, Levy, Duval, Dixie, Volusia/Seminole, and Citrus. These mortality hotspots frequently overlapped areas of higher manatee and human population densities. These hotspot clusters indicate emerging patterns that highlight areas to focus future research by wildlife managers; specifically, on the relationship between human population density and concentration of watercraft activities in coastal areas, as well as the influence coastal development has on the vital resources utilized by manatees.

This thesis presents a technique for automatic vectorization of innermost single statement loops with a cross-iteration data dependence by analyzing data-flow to recognize frequently recurring program idioms. Recognition is carried out by matching the circular SSA data-flow found around the loop body’s φ-function against several primitive patterns, forming a tree representation of the relevant data-flow that is then pruned down to a single parameterized node, providing a high-level specification of the data-flow idiom at hand used to guide algorithmic replacement applied to the intermediate representation. The versatility of the technique is shown by presenting an implementation supporting vectorization of both a limited class of linear recurrences as well as prefix sums, where the latter shows how the technique generalizes to intermediate representations with memory state in SSA-form. Finally, a thorough performance evaluation is presented, showing the effectiveness of the vectorization technique.

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation – commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period – to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our model. We conclude that our model accurately predicts future accident counts, with point estimates from the predictive distribution matching observed counts extremely well.

Premise of research. The duration and intensity of flowering overlap among plants are the first determiners of the potential for pollinator-mediated plant-plant interactions. Yet, our ability to describe community-wide patterns of coflowering, and thus understand its impact on the structure of plant-pollinator communities, is limited. Methodology. We present a conceptual framework for how network theory can reveal structural properties that are ecologically relevant in diverse coflowering communities. Coflowering modules, in particular, may suggest that groups of species coflower more strongly (clustering) with each other than with other species (over-dispersion) in the community. Such a finding would indicate that competitive and facilitative interactions do not act alone but instead act simultaneously to mediate the assembly of coflowering communities. We illustrate our conceptual framework in four diverse coflowering communities in the serpentine seeps in northern California. Pivotal results. Our coflowering networks vary in size and degree but not in overall connectance, suggesting that both intrinsic community features (species richness) and ecological constraints (length of flowering season) play a role in mediating coflowering community structure (distribution of frequency and intensity of flowering overlap among plant species). We show, for the first time, that groups of species tend to coflower more strongly with each other than with other species in a community, supporting the idea that competition and facilitation are not mutually exclusive processes mediating coflowering community assembly. Our results show that the degree of modularity is not sensitive to the number of coflowering species within each community, suggesting that ecological factors may be more important in driving this pattern. Conclusions. Coflowering networks have the potential to advance our understanding of the causes and consequences of flowering overlap in diverse plant communities by revealing a more in-depth and novel characterization of coflowering community structure. Such characterization will allow for a better understanding of the importance of coflowering patterns in mediating the structure of plant-pollinator interactions.

This paper proposes a novel algorithm in pixel-based pattern recognition in design layout which offers simplicity, speed and accuracy to recognize any patterns that later can be used to detect problematic pattern in lithography process so they can be removed or improved earlier in design stage.:Abstract 1 Content 3 List of Figure 6 List of Tables 8 List of Abbreviations 9 Chapter 1: Introduction 10 1.1 Motivation 10 1.2 Related Work 11 1.3 Purpose and Research Question 12 1.4 Approach and Methodology 12 1.5 Scope and Limitation 12 1.6 Target group 13 1.7 Outline 13 Chapter 2: Theoretical Background 14 2.1 Problematic Pattern in Computational Lithography 14 2.2 Optical Proximity Effect 16 2.3 Taxonomy of Pattern Recognition 17 2.3.1 Feature Generation 18 2.3.2 Classifier Model 19 2.3.3 System evaluation 20 2.4 Feature Selection Technique 20 2.4.1 Wrapper-Based Methods 21 2.4.2 Average-Based Methods 22 2.4.3 Binary Geometrical Transformation 24 2.4.3.1 Image Interpolation 24 2.4.3.2 Geometric Transformation 26 2.4.3.2.1 Forward Mapping: 26 2.4.3.2.2 Inverse Mapping: 27 2.4.3.3 Thresholding 27 2.5 Machine Learning Algorithm 28 2.5.1 Linear Classifier 29 2.5.2 Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) 30 2.5.3 Maximum likelihood 30 2.6 Scoring (Metrics to Measure Classifier Model Quality) 31 2.6.1 Accuracy 32 2.6.2 Sensitivity 32 2.6.3 Specifity 32 2.6.4 Precision 32 Chapter 3: Method 33 3.1 Problem Formulation 33 3.1.1 T2T Pattern 35 3.1.2 Iso-Dense Pattern 36 3.1.3 Hypothetical Hotspot Pattern 37 3.2 Classification System 38 3.2.1 Wrapper and Average-based 38 3.2.2 Binary Geometric Transformation Based 39 3.3 Window-Based Raster Scan 40 3.3.1 Scanning algorithm 40 3.4 Classifier Design 42 3.4.1 Training Phase 43 3.4.2 Discriminant Coefficient Function 44 3.4.3 SigmaDi 45 3.4.4 Maximum Posterior Probability 45 3.4.5 Classifier Model Block 46 3.5 Weka 3.8 47 3.6 Average-based Influence 49 3.7 BGT Based Model 50 Chapter 4: Results 55 4.1 Wrapper and Average-based LDA classifier 55 4.2 BGT Based LDA with SigmaDi Classifier 56 4.3 Estimation Output 57 4.4 Probability Function 58 Chapter 5: Conclusion 59 5.1 Conclusions 59 5.2 Future Research 60 Bibliography 61 Selbstständigkeitserklärung 63