Submitted by (ana.araujo@ufrpe.br) on 2016-05-25T15:27:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Carlos Andre Batista.pdf: 1088768 bytes, checksum: 7819bd86b2d74fe0f2599519c5bdf4cb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-25T15:27:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carlos Andre Batista.pdf: 1088768 bytes, checksum: 7819bd86b2d74fe0f2599519c5bdf4cb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-02-16 / The main objective of the present work was to apply recently developed in methods in physics-statistics to the time series, especifically in this work, to intervals of heart beats obtained from blood pressure signs (BP) of the sloth (Bradypus variegatus), with the purpose of identifying differences in fractality terms in the system of autonomous control related to the different situations lived by the animal along 48 hours (light-dark cycles). One tried to investigate if environmental changings may produce tendencies or have influence on the autonomous control system, using analysis multifractal methods, like Multifractal Detrended Fluctuations Analysis (MF-DFA). Due to the conditions in which the sloth BP data were obtained, that is, obtained to intervals of 15 minutes, it was necessary the adaptation of data for application of the technique MF-DFA. For validation of the adaptations, tests with humans' electrocardiograms gave us support to work with the interbeats data of sloth. The obtained results showed asignificant increasement of multifractalidade in the intervals of heartbeats of the sloth in the light cycle in relation to the dark cycle. / O principal objetivo do presente trabalho foi aplicar métodos recentemente desenvolvidos em física-estatística às séries temporais, em especial neste trabalho, a intervalos de batimentos cardíacos obtidos a partir de sinais de pressão arterial (PA) do bicho preguiça (Bradypus variegatus), com a finalidade de identificar diferenças em termos de fractalidade no sistema de controle autonômico relacionadas às diferentes situações vividas pelo animal ao longo de 48 horas (períodos claro e escuro). Procurou-se investigar se alterações ambientais produzem tendências ou têm influências sobre o sistema de controle autonômico, utilizando métodos de análise multifractal, como Multifractal Detrended Fluctuations Analysis (MF-DFA). Devido às condições nas quais os dados de PA de preguiça foram obtidos, isto é, obtidos a intervalos de 15 minutos, fez-se necessário a adaptação dos dados para aplicação da técnica MF-DFA. Para validação das adaptações, testes com eletrocardiogramas de humanos nos deram suporte para trabalhar com os dados de intervalos de batimentos cardíacos do bicho-preguiça. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que existe um aumento significativo demultifractalidade nos intervalos de batimentos cardíacos do bicho preguiça no período claro em relação ao escuro.

Submitted by Geyciane Santos (geyciane_thamires@hotmail.com) on 2015-08-06T15:11:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Celso Ricardo Caldeira Rêgo.pdf: 2481181 bytes, checksum: f162815b3f4a2d2e2f18c79b501aeacf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2015-08-07T13:46:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Celso Ricardo Caldeira Rêgo.pdf: 2481181 bytes, checksum: f162815b3f4a2d2e2f18c79b501aeacf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2015-08-07T13:43:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Celso Ricardo Caldeira Rêgo.pdf: 2481181 bytes, checksum: f162815b3f4a2d2e2f18c79b501aeacf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2015-08-07T13:47:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Celso Ricardo Caldeira Rêgo.pdf: 2481181 bytes, checksum: f162815b3f4a2d2e2f18c79b501aeacf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-08-07T13:47:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Celso Ricardo Caldeira Rêgo.pdf: 2481181 bytes, checksum: f162815b3f4a2d2e2f18c79b501aeacf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-01-06 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Many time series exihibit multifractal scale properties with important physical implications. We use the method for the multifractal characterization the MF-DFA (Mutifractal- Detrended Fluctuation Analysis) to calculate the generalized Hurst exponent [11] of water levels series of sixteen hydrological stations of the main Brazilian rivers, located in the cities of Manaus, Obidos, Lad ario, Porto Velho, Fonte Boa, Tucuru , Marab a, Santar em, Cruzeiro do Sul, Xambio a, Concei c~ao do Araguaia, Gua ra, Altamira, C aceres, Barra e Piranhas. These stations are placed in cities with di erent climate zones in Brazil. From this analysis, we concluded that all series exhibit multifractality and non-stationary behavior. We also show that the type of multifractality involved in this process is mainly due to the presence of di erent types of correlations in hydrological time series. We derive an analytic equation that generates the multifractal spectra for all the stations studied, with maximum errors of 1%, from the generalization of the d-Process Multiplied Multinomial. It suggests the existence of a universal multifractality in the hydrologic cycle of the Brazilian rivers and why not of the planet? This work shows that it is possible to treat the time series of water levels of the Brazilian rivers from a multifractal perspective, and therewith to have a better understanding of the complex aspects of the scale properties that these series exhibit. / Muitas séries temporais exibem propriedades de escala multifractais com importantes implicações físicas. Neste trabalho usamos o método para a caracterização multifractal MF-DFA para calcular o expoente de Hurst generalizado [11], das séries de níveis de água de dezesseis estações hidrológicas dos principais rios brasileiros, sediadas nas cidades de Manaus, Óbidos, Porto Velho, Fonte Boa, Tucuruí, Marabá,Santarém, Cruzeiro do Sul, Xambio á, Conceição do Araguaia, Guaíra, Altamira, Caceres, Ladario, Barra e Piranhas. Essas estações estão localizadas em cidades de diferentes zonas climáticas do Brasil. Dessa ánalise, pudemos constatar que todas as séries exibem multifractalidade e comportamento não estacionário. Mostramos ainda, que o tipo de multifractalidade envolvido nesse processo e devido, essencialmente, a presença de diferentes tipos de correlações nas séries hidrológicas. Conseguimos exibir, de modo anal tico, uma equa ção que gera todos os espectros multifractais nas estacões trabalhadas, com erros máximos de 1%, a partir da generaliza c~ao do d-Processo Multiplicativo Multinomial, sugerindo a existência de uma multifractalidade universal no ciclo hidrológico dos rios brasileiros e por que não do planeta? Este trabalho mostra que e possível tratar as séries dos níveis de água dos rios brasileiros a partir da perspectiva multifractal e, disso, compreender melhor os aspectos complexos das propriedades de escalas que essas séries apresentam.

PhD (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / There has been a growing interest in investment opportunities in Africa. The net foreign direct investment (FDI) to Sub-Saharan Africa has increased from $13 billion in 2004 to about $54 billion in 2015. Investing on the stock markets is one of such investment opportunities. Stock markets in Africa have realised growth in market capitalization, membership, value and volume traded due to an increase in investments. This level of growth in African stock markets has raised questions about their efficiency. This thesis examined the weak-form informational efficiency of African stock markets. The aim therefore of this thesis is to test the efficiency of African stock markets in the weak-form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for eight countries, namely, Botswana, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. Since, the researcher will be testing the weak-form of the EMH, the data to be used is on past price information on the markets of the eight countries. Data for the eight countries were obtained from DataStream for the period between August 28, 2000 to August 28, 2015. The data is for a period of 180 months which resulted in 3915 data points. Although there have been studies on the weak-form market efficiency of African stock markets, the efficiency conclusions on the markets have been mixed. This problem might be due to the methods used in the analyses. First, most of the methods used were linear in nature although the data generating process of stock market data is nonlinear and hence nonlinear methods maybe more appropriate in its analysis. Also these linear methods tested the efficiency of African markets in absolute form, however, an efficiency conclusion relying solely on absolute efficiency might be misleading because, stock markets become efficient with time due to improvements in the quality of information processing from reforms on the markets. The researcher solved this problem of using absolute frequency by comparing the results when the presence of long-memory in frequency and time domains of the markets were examined. The researcher used a semi-parametric estimator, the Local Whittle estimator to test for long-memory in frequency domain and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to test for long-memory in time domain. The DFA method is suitable for both stationary and nonstationary time series which makes it to have more power over methods like the rescaled range analysis (R/S) in the estimation of Hurst exponent. Second, the researcher examined whether the markets were predictable under the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). The researcher employed the Generalised Spectral (GS) test to examine the Martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) of the markets. The Generalised spectral (GS) test is a non-parametric ii test designed to detect the presence of linear and nonlinear dependencies in a stationary time series. The GS test considers dependence at all lags. Third, because of the nonlinear nature in the data-generating process on the markets, the stationarity of the market returns under a nonlinear Exponential Smooth Threshold Autoregressive (ESTAR) model was examined. A nonlinear ADF unit root test against ESTAR and a modified Wald-type test against ESTAR in the analysis were employed. Fourth, the self-exciting threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) method was employed to model the returns when non-linear patterns were observed as a result of nonlinear data generating process on the markets. The literature on market efficiency of African stock markets has shown that variations exist in the study characteristics. There are variations in the method of analysis, type of test, type of data employed, time period chosen and the scope of analysis for the studies. The researcher therefore quantitatively reviewed previous studies by means of meta-analysis to identify which study characteristics affects efficiency conclusions of African markets using the mixed effects model. The findings showed the presence of long-memory in the returns of the stock markets when the whole sample was used. This made the markets weak-form inefficient, however, when the researcher tested for the persistence of long-memory through time, there were periods the markets were efficient in the weak-form. The memory effect was low in the South African market but high in the Mauritian market. Furthermore, it was observed that, the returns for Egypt, which were highly predictable when the whole data was analysed became not highly predictable when the rolling window approach of the GS test was used. Egypt had one of the lowest percentages of the windows that had a p-value less than 0.05 after South Africa. The results obtained from using the non-linear unit root tests on the logarithmic price series of the markets under study showed that, the markets were non-stationary and hence weak-form efficient under an ESTAR framework but for Botswana. Thus the markets were weak-form efficient when analysed using a non-linear method. This observation means that Africa’s foreign direct investment would have been increased over the years if the appropriate methods are used. This is because, over the years, studies on the weak-form efficiency African stock markets have ended with mixed conclusions with most of the markets being concluded to be weak-form inefficient as a result of the use of linear methods in the analysis. This finding, to us, has had an effect on investors commitments to Africa because the right methodology was not employed. iii The findings from modelling the returns under the non-linear SETAR model showed that, the SETAR model performs better than the standard AR(1) and AR(2) model for all the markets under study after the non-linear patterns were identified in the returns series. The SETAR (2,2,2) model is a threshold model, therefore, investors are able to move freely in search of higher opportunities between the low and high regimes. Investors main aim is to make profits, hence, the threshold model of SETAR gives them the freedom to move to a regime where the rate of returns is increasing unlike the standard AR(1) and AR(2) linear models where there are no switching of regimes. Finally, none of the study characteristics in the market efficiency studies was found to be significant in efficiency conclusions of African stock markets but the indicator for publication bias was significant. This means that there has been a change in attitude in recent years towards studies on informational market efficiency whose results do not support the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), unlike the earlier years when the EMH was formulated and acclaimed to be one of the best propositions in economics. It was therefore concluded that when time-varying methods are used in analysing weak-form efficiency, the dynamics of the markets become known to investors for proper decision-making. Also, nonlinear methods should be used in order to reflect the nonlinear nature of data capturing on the stock markets / NRF

Sabe-se que, na literatura, existem muitos modelos para se fazer previsão para séries temporais financeiras. Sabe-se também que não há um modelo perfeito e que os mais utilizados atualmente são os modelos de redes neurais recorrentes e os da família GARCH. Referências internacionais apontam que existe uma técnica de medição de uma janela temporal para se identificar o tipo de comportamento existente em uma série temporal; tal técnica é conhecida como Expoente de Hurst. É uma medida que qualifica a série como persistente ou anti-persistente. Este trabalho analisou se o Expoente de Hurst, interfere na qualidade das previsões feitas com o modelo de redes neurais recorrentes com e sem o uso do filtro de ondaletas, utilizando os preços diários das principais commodities, ações negociadas no mercado e a taxa de câmbio. no período de janeiro de 1998 a dezembro de 2010. Com a pesquisa observa-se, na maioria dos casos, há uma possível melhora na qualidade das previsões para as séries antipersistentes. / It is known that there are a lot of models to forecast financial time series. It is known, also, that there is not a perfect model and the most used nowadays are the Recurrent Neural Network models and those from the GARCH family. International references point to a technique of measurement using windowing in order to identify the kind of behavior that is present in time series. This technique is known as Hurst Exponent. It is a measure that qualifies the time series as persistent or anti-persistent. This work analyzed if the Hurst Exponent interferes in the quality of the forecasts made with the Neural Network models with and without the wavelet filter, using the main commodities, stock prices, Ibovespa index and the Dollar/Real exchange rate in the period ranging from January 1998 to December 2010. The initial conclusions concerning the models worked out are positives.

<p>Behaviour occurs in time, and precise timing in the range of seconds and fractions of seconds is for most living organisms necessary for successful interaction with the environment. Our ability to time discrete actions and to predict events on the basis of prior events indicates the existence of an internal timing mechanism. The nature of this mechanism provides essential constraints on models of the functional organisation of the brain. </p><p>The present work indicates that there are discontinuities in the function of time close to 1 s and 1.4 s, both in the amount of drift in a series of produced intervals (Study I) and in the detectability of drift in a series of sounds (Study II). The similarities across different tasks further suggest that action and perceptual judgements are governed by the same (kind of) mechanism. Study III showed that series of produced intervals could be characterised by different amounts of positive fractal dependency related to the aforementioned discontinuities. </p><p>In conjunction with other findings in the literature, these results suggest that timing of intervals up to a few seconds is strongly dependent on previous intervals and on the duration to be timed. This argues against a clock-counter mechanism, as proposed by scalar timing theory, according to which successive intervals are random and the size of the timing error conforms to Weber's law. </p><p>A functional model is proposed, expressed in an autoregressive framework, which consists of a single-interval timer with error corrective feedback. The duration-specificity of the proposed model is derived from the order of error correction, as determined by a semi-flexible temporal integration span. </p>

Behaviour occurs in time, and precise timing in the range of seconds and fractions of seconds is for most living organisms necessary for successful interaction with the environment. Our ability to time discrete actions and to predict events on the basis of prior events indicates the existence of an internal timing mechanism. The nature of this mechanism provides essential constraints on models of the functional organisation of the brain. The present work indicates that there are discontinuities in the function of time close to 1 s and 1.4 s, both in the amount of drift in a series of produced intervals (Study I) and in the detectability of drift in a series of sounds (Study II). The similarities across different tasks further suggest that action and perceptual judgements are governed by the same (kind of) mechanism. Study III showed that series of produced intervals could be characterised by different amounts of positive fractal dependency related to the aforementioned discontinuities. In conjunction with other findings in the literature, these results suggest that timing of intervals up to a few seconds is strongly dependent on previous intervals and on the duration to be timed. This argues against a clock-counter mechanism, as proposed by scalar timing theory, according to which successive intervals are random and the size of the timing error conforms to Weber's law. A functional model is proposed, expressed in an autoregressive framework, which consists of a single-interval timer with error corrective feedback. The duration-specificity of the proposed model is derived from the order of error correction, as determined by a semi-flexible temporal integration span.

Hurst exponent and variance are two quantities that often characterize real-life, highfrequency observations. We develop the method for simultaneous estimation of a timechanging Hurst exponent H(t) and constant scale (variance) parameter C in a multifractional Brownian motion model in the presence of white noise based on the asymptotic behavior of the local variation of its sample paths. We also discuss the accuracy of the stable and simultaneous estimator compared with a few selected methods and the stability of computations that use adapted wavelet filters. Multifractals have become popular as flexible models in modeling real-life data of high frequency. We developed a method of testing whether the data of high frequency is consistent with monofractality using meaningful descriptors coming from a wavelet-generated multifractal spectrum. We discuss theoretical properties of the descriptors, their computational implementation, the use in data mining, and the effectiveness in the context of simulations, an application in turbulence, and analysis of coding/noncoding regions in DNA sequences. The wavelet thresholding is a simple and effective operation in wavelet domains that selects the subset of wavelet coefficients from a noised signal. We propose the selection of this subset in a semi-supervised fashion, in which a neighbor structure and classification function appropriate for wavelet domains are utilized. The decision to include an unlabeled coefficient in the model depends not only on its magnitude but also on the labeled and unlabeled coefficients from its neighborhood. The theoretical properties of the method are discussed and its performance is demonstrated on simulated examples.

Nowadays there has been a growing interest in anomalous diffusion: the super difusive and sub-difusive processes. The problem about normal diffusion already well established whereas many problems still exist in anomalous diffusion. Several mathematical models and computational techniques have been developed to model such processes. In this work we studied a non-Markovian Random Walk (RW), in one dimension in which the development of the process is governed by decisions taken in the distant past. We used as tool of analysis, analytical and numerical procedures (Monte Carlo method). In this problem, the walker takes its decisions (go right or left) at a given time t, based on the decisions taken in the past, namely in a fraction f of the total time. As far as the decision making process is considered only the distant past is taken into account. This loss of recent memory leads the probability density function of the position to change from Gaussian to non-Gaussian and leads to the emergence of log-periodic oscillations in position, besides producing a change in the behavior of non-persistent to persistent, causing anomalous diffusion. This change is characterized by the Hurst exponent, and is found, surprisingly, in a region where there is negative feedback. The diagram of phases depending on the parameters f and p (fraction of old memory and feedback), shows the following phases: classical non persistence, classical persistence, log-periodic non persistence, log-periodic persistence, Gaussian and non Gaussian with respect to the position of the walker. / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Atualmente tem crescido o interesse por processos de difusão anômala, i.e., os super difusivos e sub-difusivos. O problema voltado para difusão normal já é bem conhecido, enquanto para difusões anômalas ainda existem vários problemas em abertos. Várias técnicas computacionais e modelos matemáticos têm sido desenvolvidos para modelar tais processos. Estudamos neste trabalho uma caminhada aleatória, não Markoviana em uma dimensão, em que o desenvolvimento do processo é regido por decisões tomadas em relação ao passado distante. Utilizamos como ferramenta de análise uma abordagem analítica e numérica (via método de Monte Carlo). Nesse problema, o caminhante toma suas decisões (entre ir para a direita ou para a esquerda), num determinado tempo t, com base nas decisões tomadas no passado, numa fração f do tempo transcorrido. Quando f<1 o passado recente é esquecido e apenas o passado distante é considerado. Essa perda de memória recente induz a função densidade de probabilidade da posição a passar de um regime Gaussiano para não Gaussiano e leva ao surgimento de oscilações log-periódicas na posição, além de produzir uma mudança no comportamento, de não persistente para persistente, ocasionando difusão anômala. Essa mudança é caracterizada pelo expoente de Hurst e ocorre também, surpreendentemente, numa região de feedback negativo. O diagrama de fases em função dos parâmetros f e p (fração de memória antiga e feedback), mostra as seguintes regiões: não persistência clássica; persistência clássica; não persistência log-periódica e persistência log-periódica; região Gaussiana e não Gaussiana da posição.

Cette thèse porte sur l'existence de champs browniens fractionnaires indexés par des variétés riemanniennes. Ces objets héritent des propriétés qui font le succès du mouvement brownien fractionnaire classique (H-autosimilarité des trajectoires ajustable, accroissements stationnaires), mais autorisent à considérer des applications où les données sont portées par un espace qui peut par exemple être courbé ou troué. L'existence de ces champs n'est assurée que lorsque la quantité 2H est inférieure à l'indice fractionnaire de la variété, qui n'est connu que dans un petit nombre d'exemples. Dans un premier temps nous donnons une condition nécessaire pour l'existence de champ brownien fractionnaire. Dans le cas du champ brownien (correspondant à H=1/2) indexé par des variétés qui ont des géodésiques fermées minimales, cette condition s'avère très contraignante : nous donnons des résultats de non-existence dans ce cadre, et montrons notamment qu'il n'existe pas de champ brownien indexé par une variété compacte non simplement connexe. La condition nécessaire donne également une preuve courte d'un fait attendu qui est la non-dégénérescence du champ brownien indexé par les espaces hyperboliques réels. Dans un second temps nous montrons que l'indice fractionnaire du cylindre est nul, ce qui constitue un exemple totalement dégénéré. Nous en déduisons que l'indice fractionnaire d'un espace métrique n'est pas continu par rapport à la convergence de Gromov-Hausdorff. Nous généralisons ce résultat sur le cylindre à un produit cartésien qui possède une géodésique fermée minimale, et donnons une majoration de l'indice fractionnaire de surfaces asymptotiquement proches du cylindre au voisinage d'une géodésique fermée minimale. / The aim of the thesis is the study of the existence of fractional Brownian fields indexed by Riemannian manifolds. Those fields inherit key properties of the classical fractional Brownian motion (sample paths with self-similarity of adjustable parameter H, stationary increments), while allowing to consider applications with data indexed by a space which can be for example curved or with a hole. The existence of those fields is only insured when the quantity 2H is inferior or equal to the fractional index of the manifold, which is known only in a few cases. In a first part we give a necessary condition for the fractional Brownian field to exist. In the case of the Brownian field (corresponding to H=1/2) indexed by a manifold with minimal closed geodesics this condition happens to be very restrictive. We give several nonexistence results in this situation. In particular we show that there exists no Brownian field indexed by a nonsimply connected compact manifold. Our necessary condition also gives a short proof of an expected result: we prove the nondegeneracy of fractional Brownian fields indexed by the real hyperbolic spaces. In a second part we show that the fractional index of the cylinder is null, which gives a totally degenerate case. We deduce from this result that the fractional index of a metric space is noncontinuous with respect to the Gromov-Hausdorff convergence. We generalise this result about the cylinder to a Cartesian product with a closed minimal geodesic. Furthermore we give a bound of the fractional index of surfaces asymptotically close to the cylinder in the neighbourhood of a closed minimal geodesic.

Sabe-se que, na literatura, existem muitos modelos para se fazer previsão para séries temporais financeiras. Sabe-se também que não há um modelo perfeito e que os mais utilizados atualmente são os modelos de redes neurais recorrentes e os da família GARCH. Referências internacionais apontam que existe uma técnica de medição de uma janela temporal para se identificar o tipo de comportamento existente em uma série temporal; tal técnica é conhecida como Expoente de Hurst. É uma medida que qualifica a série como persistente ou anti-persistente. Este trabalho analisou se o Expoente de Hurst, interfere na qualidade das previsões feitas com o modelo de redes neurais recorrentes com e sem o uso do filtro de ondaletas, utilizando os preços diários das principais commodities, ações negociadas no mercado e a taxa de câmbio. no período de janeiro de 1998 a dezembro de 2010. Com a pesquisa observa-se, na maioria dos casos, há uma possível melhora na qualidade das previsões para as séries antipersistentes. / It is known that there are a lot of models to forecast financial time series. It is known, also, that there is not a perfect model and the most used nowadays are the Recurrent Neural Network models and those from the GARCH family. International references point to a technique of measurement using windowing in order to identify the kind of behavior that is present in time series. This technique is known as Hurst Exponent. It is a measure that qualifies the time series as persistent or anti-persistent. This work analyzed if the Hurst Exponent interferes in the quality of the forecasts made with the Neural Network models with and without the wavelet filter, using the main commodities, stock prices, Ibovespa index and the Dollar/Real exchange rate in the period ranging from January 1998 to December 2010. The initial conclusions concerning the models worked out are positives.