O presente trabalho apresenta a aplicação das fórmulas de Vincenty nos cálculos das correções do terreno e do efeito indireto, que desempenham papel relevante na construção de cartas geoidais. Implementa-se um programa de processamento que realiza a integração numérica sobre o modelo digital do terreno, discretizado em células triangulares de Delaunay. O sistema foi desenvolvido com a linguagem de programação FORTRAN, para a execução de intensos algoritmos numéricos usando compiladores livres e robustos. Para o cálculo do efeito indireto, considera-se a redução gravimétrica efetuada com base no segundo método de condensação de Helmert, face ao pequeno valor de efeito indireto no cálculo do geóide, em função da mudança que este produz no potencial da gravidade devido ao deslocamento da massa topográfica. Utiliza-se, o sistema geodésico SIRGAS 2000 como sistema de referência para o cômputo das correções. Simplificando o exame dos resultados alcançados, distingue-se o processamento e desenvolvimento do trabalho em etapas como a escolha de ferramentas geodésicas para máxima precisão dos resultados, elaboração de subrotinas e comparação de resultados com cálculos anteriores. Os resultados encontrados foram de geração sadia e satisfatória e podem ser perfeitamente empregados no cálculo do geóide em qualquer área do globo. / An application of Vincentys formulas has been presented for computing terrain corrections and indirect effect, that have important hole in geoidal maps generation. A software is implemented, that performs numerical integration over a digital terrain model discretized in Delaunay triangular cells. The system had been implemented in FORTRAN Programming Language, as a natural choice for implementation of intensive numerical algorithms, using free and robust compilers. To calculate the indirect effect is used the gravimetric reductions, based on Helmert Second Condensation Method, because of small indirect effect values in calculation of the geoid, depending on the gravity potential change due to displacement of topographical masses. The Geodetic System SIRGAS 2000 is adopted as the reference system to compute the corrections. Simplifying the analysis of the obtained results, the processing and development of the study in stages like choice of geodetic tools for maximum accuracy of results, preparation of subroutines and compare results with previous calculations. The results observed were sound satisfactory and support conveniently geoid generation in any part of globe.

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Anthropogenic atmospheric aerosols (suspended particulate matter) can modify the radiative balance (and climate) of the Earth by altering the properties and global distribution of clouds. Current climate models however cannot adequately account for many important aspects of these aerosol-cloud interactions, ultimately leading to a large uncertainty in the estimation of the magnitude of the effect of aerosols on climate. This thesis focuses on the development of physically-based descriptions of aerosol-cloud processes in climate models that help to address some of such predictive uncertainty. It includes the formulation of a new analytical parameterization for the formation of ice clouds, and the inclusion of the effects of mixing and kinetic limitations in existing liquid cloud parameterizations. The parameterizations are analytical solutions to the cloud ice and water particle nucleation problem, developed within a framework that considers the mass and energy balances associated with the freezing and droplet activation of aerosol particles. The new frameworks explicitly account for the impact of cloud formation dynamics, the aerosol size and composition, and the dominant freezing mechanism (homogeneous vs. heterogeneous) on the ice crystal and droplet concentration and size distribution. Application of the new parameterizations is demonstrated in the NASA Global Modeling Initiative atmospheric and chemical and transport model to study the effect of aerosol emissions on the global distribution of ice crystal concentration, and, the effect of entrainment during cloud droplet activation on the global cloud radiative properties. The ice cloud formation framework is also used within a parcel ensemble model to understand the microphysical structure of cirrus clouds at very low temperature. The frameworks developed in this work provide an efficient, yet rigorous, representation of cloud formation processes from precursor aerosol. They are suitable for the study of the effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on cloud formation, and can contribute to the improvement of the predictive ability of atmospheric models and to the understanding of the impact of human activities on climate.

The direct and indirect effects of aerosols on the hurricane ‘Katrina’ have been investigated using the WRF model with a two-moment bulk microphysical scheme and modified Goddard shortwave radiation scheme. Simulations of the hurricane ‘Katrina’ are conducted under the three aerosol scenarios: 1) the clean case with an aerosol number concentration of 200 cm-1, 2) the polluted case with a number concentration of 1000 cm-1, and 3) the aerosol radiative effects (AR) case with same aerosol concentration as polluted case but with a modified shortwave radiation scheme. The polluted and AR cases have much larger amounts of cloud water and water vapor in troposphere, and the increased cloud water can freeze to produce ice water paths. A tropical cyclone in dirty and dusty air has active rainbands outside the eyewall due to aerosol indirect effects. The aerosol direct effect can lead to the suppressing of convection and weakening of updraft intensity by warming the troposphere and cooling the surface temperature. However, these thermal changes in atmosphere are concerned with the enhanced amounts of cloud hydrometeors and modification of downdraft and corresponding the low level winds in rainband regions. Thus, the AR case can produce the enhanced precipitation even in the weakest hurricane. When comparing the model performance between aerosol indirect and direct effect by ensemble experiments, the adjustment time of the circulation due to modification of the aerosol radiative forcing by aerosol layers may take a longer time than the hurricane lifetime, and the results from the simulated hurricane show that it is more sensitive to aerosol indirect effects which are related to the cloud microphysics process changes. From this aerosol study, we can suggest that aerosols can influence the cloudiness, precipitation, and intensity of hurricanes significantly, and there may be different results in the meso-scale convective clouds cases. The hurricane system is a large and complex convective system with enormous heating energy and moistures. Moreover, relationships between various hydrometeors in hurricane systems are difficult to isolate and thus, it needs further study with more realistic cloud microphysical processes, aerosol distributions, and parameterizations.

Det serbiska luftvärnet sköt ner ytterst få av NATO:s flygplan under Kosovokonflikten. Trots det så visar det sig att NATO:s luftoperationer indirekt påverkades i stor skala av luftvärnet. Även om man sköt ner ytterst få av de anfallande flygplanen uppnådde serberna indirekta effekter på NATO som försvårade hela operationen. Syftet med denna uppsats är att problematisera och definiera begreppet indirekt effekt inom ramen för luftvärn samt att applicera detta begrepp på en vald konflikt. Uppsatsen består i huvudsak av två sammanhängande undersökningar. Först sker en begreppsutredande studie som resulterar i en definition av begreppet indirekt effekt. Därefter sker en fallstudie på Kosovokonflikten för att konkretisera och exemplifiera indirekt effekt. Dessa metoder kombineras med metoden kvalitativ textanalys. Valet av att använda denna konflikt gjordes då parterna använde sig främst av enbart flygstridskrafter respektive luftvärn mot varandra. Studien resulterade i en definition av indirekt effekt som kan användas för att beskriva effekter av luftvärnsoperationer. När begreppet analyserades i fallstudien visade det sig att luftvärnets indirekta effekter hade stor betydelse för konfliktens utveckling och i slutändan bland annat kan ha fördröjt Milosevics kapitulation. / The Serbian Air Defence shot down a small number of airplanes during the Kosovo War. Even so, it turns out that NATO’s air operations were indirectly affected a lot by the Serbian Air Defence. The purpose of this dissertation is to problematize and define the term of indirect effect in the context of air defence and to apply it to an authentic conflict. The dissertation consists primarily of two interrelated studies. The first is an investigative study that culminates in a definition of the term indirect effect. Thereafter, a case study on the Kosovo conflict is used to concretize and exemplify the indirect effect. This conflict was chosen as both parties used primarily air power and air defence against each other. The study resulted in a definition of indirect effects that can be used to describe the effects of air defence operations. The case study showed that the indirect effect of the air defence were important for the progression of the conflict and ultimately may have delayed Milosevic's capitulation.

Previous studies have discounted important factors and indirect channels that might contribute to business cycle synchronization (BSC) in the EU. We estimate the effects of market integration and economic policy coordination on bilateral business cycle correlations over the period 1995-2012 using a simultaneous equations model that takes into accounts both the endogenous relationships and unveils direct and indirect effects. The results suggest that (i) trade and FDI have a pronounced positive effect on BCS, particularly between incumbent and new EU members. (ii) Rising specialization does not decouple business cycles. (iii) The decline of income disparities in EU27 contributes to BCS, as converging countries develop stronger trade and FDI linkages. (iv) There is strong evidence that poor fiscal discipline of EU members is a major impediment of business cycle synchronization. (v) The same argument holds true for exchange rate fluctuations that hinder BCS, particularly in EU15. Since BCS is a fundamental prerequisite and objective in an effective monetary union, the EU has to promote market integration and strengthen the common setting of economic policies.

The primary focus of this study is to explore the relationship between structural factors of a specific society and occurrence of terror related crimes. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to examine how or to what extent social disorganization theory, which is the basic theoretical foundation of this study, can explain terrorism related crimes in Turkey. Although several previous studies investigated the social and structural dimensions of terrorism in a country, many of those studies did not go beyond investigating the impacts of traditional structural factors such as poverty, inequality, and education on terrorism. This study goes a step further by adding the mediating factors between those primary social disorganization variables and terror related crimes. Direct, indirect and, total effects of structural variables on terrorism through the mediating variables, that is prevalence of voluntary associations and religious institutions, are examined. Findings obtained from multivariate and mediation analyses show that while some structural variables such as education and poverty are directly related to distribution of terror related crimes, this relationship became indirect through the mediating variables for other structural variables such as residential mobility and unemployment. Results suggest that rather than overreliance on traditional antiterrorism strategies which are mostly depending on the public level control such as law enforcement process, programs supported by other levels of social control, that is, parochial and private levels must be encouraged.

The Second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) data set along with ECMWF reanalysis meteorological fields provided the basis for the single column model (SCM) simulations, performed as part of the PACE (Parameterization of the Aerosol Indirect Climatic Effect) project. Six different SCMs were used to simulate ACE-2 case studies of clean and polluted cloudy boundary layers, with the objective being to identify limitations of the aerosol/cloud/radiation interaction schemes within the range of uncertainty in in situ, reanalysis and satellite retrieved data. The exercise proceeds in three steps. First, SCMs are configured with the same fine vertical resolution as the ACE-2 in situ data base to evaluate the numerical schemes for prediction of aerosol activation, radiative transfer and precipitation formation. Second, the same test is performed at the coarser vertical resolution of GCMs to evaluate its impact on the performance of the parameterizations. Finally, SCMs are run for a 24–48 hr period to examine predictions of boundary layer clouds when initialized with large-scale meteorological fields. Several schemes were tested for the prediction of cloud droplet number concentration (N). Physically based activation schemes using vertical velocity show noticeable discrepancies compared to empirical schemes due to biases in the diagnosed cloud base vertical velocity. Prognostic schemes exhibit a larger variability than the diagnostic ones, due to a coupling between aerosol activation and drizzle scavenging in the calculation of N. When SCMs are initialized at a fine vertical resolution with locally observed vertical profiles of liquid water, predicted optical properties are comparable to observations. Predictions however degrade at coarser vertical resolution and are more sensitive to the mean liquid water path than to its spatial heterogeneity. Predicted precipitation fluxes are severely underestimated and improve when accounting for sub-grid liquid water variability. Results from the 24–48 hr runs suggest that most models have problems in simulating boundary layer cloud morphology, since the large-scale initialization fields do not accurately reproduce observed meteorological conditions. As a result, models significantly overestimate optical properties. Improved cloud morphologies were obtained for models with subgrid inversions and subgrid cloud thickness schemes. This may be a result of representing subgrid scale effects though we do not rule out the possibility that better large-forcing data may also improve cloud morphology predictions.

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