Thesis (Ph.D.)--York University, 2004. Graduate Programme in Social and Political Thought. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 371-402). Also available on the Internet. MODE OF ACCESS via web browser by entering the following URL: http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/yorku/fullcit?pNQ99242

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-03T11:52:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2014-09-05Bitstream added on 2015-03-03T12:06:56Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000809759.pdf: 699772 bytes, checksum: 12bbc9afbc065a0d9b369f6f0e6d9d48 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Esta dissertação examina a crise grega de endividamento desencadeada a partir da chamada crise do subprime de 2008. A primeira parte do estudo se concentra na herança dos regimes autoritários que governaram a Grécia, entre 1930 e 1970. A seguir, são apresentadas duas visões distintas a respeito das causas do grande endividamento público grego, com grande contraste entre a visão oficial da troika (Comissão Europeia, Banco Central Europeu e FMI), responsável pelo plano de ajuste econômico imposto ao país; e a visão de economistas ligados ao Levy Institute of Economics. A partir disso, o estudo se volta para possíveis medidas que reduziriam o endividamento do país e esmiúça os detalhes do plano de reescalonamento da dívida grega, que envolveu medidas de austeridade e a maior operação de troca de títulos de dívida já feita. Conclui-se que as medidas adotadas foram suficientes para superar o problema do endividamento; no entanto, ao analisarmos detalhadamente a economia do país, notamos que os desequilíbrios e assimetrias de origem estrutural, produtiva, financeira e política, que levaram o país ao grande endividamento, ainda persistem / This dissertation examines the Greek debt crisis that followed the subprime crisis of 2008. The first part of this study focuses on the legacy left by the authoritarian regimes that ruled Greece between 1930 and 1970. Then, two different visions explaining the causes of the great public debt are presented, stressing the contrast between the official vision represented by the troika (European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF), responsible for the adjustment plan imposed on the country, and the vision of economists from the Levy Institute of Economics. Following that, the study examines possible alternatives to reduce the debt burden and the details of the debt write-off coordinated by the IMF that consisted in the enforcement of austerity measures and the biggest bond swap in history. The study concludes that the measures taken were enough to overcome the main problem – the excessive indebtedness – although the analysis of the economy shows that the structural, political, productive and financial imbalances and asymmetries that led the country to the debt still remain

Orientadora: Flávia de Campos Mello / O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais é instituído em parceria com a Unesp/Unicamp/PUC-SP, em projeto subsidiado pela CAPES, intitulado "Programa San Tiago Dantas" / Resumo: Não disponível / Abstract: Not available / Doutor

Orientador: Luis Fernando Ayerbe / Banca: Héctor Luis Saint-Pierre / Banca: Igor Fuser / O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais é instituído em parceria com a Unesp/Unicamp/PUC-SP, em projeto subsidiado pela CAPES, intitulado "Programa San Tiago Dantas" / Resumo: A política externa brasileira para a América do Sul durante os anos Lula da Silva (2003-2010) foi considerada enfática e assertiva, visando o desenvolvimento de seu entorno regional como parte de um processo maior de desenvolvimento nacional. No entanto, a análise do cenário sul-americano deste período revela o surgimento de um projeto alternativo ao brasileiro: o bolivariano. O presidente venezuelano Hugo Chávez procurou utilizar os recursos petroleiros, que inundavam seu país durante a bonança econômica dos anos 2000, para financiar iniciativas baseadas nas ideias de Bolívar e no chamado "socialismo do século XXI". Diante da ascensão de um novo projeto regional, este estudo procura indicar de que forma o Brasil de Lula conseguiu garantir a supremacia de seu esquema para a região, representado pela União das Nações Sul-Americanas (UNASUL), frente a alternativa apresentada por Chávez, a Aliança Bolivariana para as Américas (ALBA) / Abstract: Brazilian foreign policy to South America during the years Lula da Silva (2003-2010) was considered emphatic, assertive, aiming to develop its regional environment as part of a larger process of national development. However, analysis of the South American landscape of this period reveals the emergence of an alternative project to Brazil: the Bolivarian. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sought to use the oil revenues that flooded their country during the economic boom of the 2000s, to finance based on the ideas of Bolivar and the so-called "socialism of the XXI century" initiatives. Given the rise of a new regional project, this study seeks to outline how Lula's Brazil managed to ensure the supremacy of his scheme for the region, represented by the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), compared to alternative presented by Chavez the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) / Mestre

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Stock market linkages have implications for portfolio diversification, asset pricing, monetary and regulatory policy as well as financial stability. This study examines the extent to which African stock markets are linked using daily data for the period 2000-2010. The study is divided into three main parts each focussing on the ways in which integration of the stock markets can be viewed. Firstly, we analyse the long run co-movement of the stock markets using both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches. Secondly, we analyse returns linkages using Factor analysis and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. In the Factor Analysis model, we used two extraction methods, namely Principal Component Analysis and the Maximurn Likelihood technique. The VAR model was extended with impulse response, variance decomposition and block exogeniety. Thirdly, we analyse the behaviour of volatility and the volatility linkages among the stock markets. We initially analysed and modelled volatility in each stock market using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH and then examined the long-term trend of the volatility. Conditional volatility series for each country were then estimated using the most appropriate model and were analysed using VAR, block exogeniety, impulse response and variance decomposition to determine the extent of their linkages. The findings of the study are as follows: Both the bivariate and multivariate models found slim evidence of cointegration amongst the stock markets, suggesting that there were opportunities for portfolio diversification for investors. In general, the financial crisis had very little impact on the long-run relationships of the stock markets. Results for the returns linkages showed that there were limited retums linkages with the exceptions of South African-Namibia and Egypt-Morocco to a lesser extent. South Africa was found to be the most endogenous, whilst Ghana and Nigeria were the most exogenous on the continent. We regards to volatility, we found that it was asymmetric and persistent across all the stock markets with long term trend of volatility showing that it significantly increased for most of the markets. Finally, there were limited volatility linkages, only between South Africa, Egypt and Namibia, implying that African stock markets are still largely segmented from each other. However, the linkages between South Africa and Egypt could have negative effects as they could lead to the spread of contagion effects during times of crises. Therefore, policymakers should consider revising and improving policies to enhance economic integration on the continent.

Orientador: Mário Augusto Bertella / Banca: Alexandre Sartoris Neto / Banca: Carlos Alberto Cinquetti / Resumo: Ao longo das últimas duas décadas ocorreram várias transformações na economia brasileira, dentre elas o aumento considerável da entrada de IDE. Existem vários fatores que contribuíram para explicar esse fenômeno. Porém, o trabalho utilizou algumas variáveis macroeconômicas que explicam o comportamento do IDE na economia brasileira entre janeiro de 1999 e dezembro de 2007. As variáveis utilizadas foram as transações correntes, taxa de câmbio, PIB a preços correntes, deflacionados pelo IGP-DI e taxa de juros Selic. A ferramenta utilizada para explicar a relação do IDE com os restantes das variáveis foi a co-inegração. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que somente a taxa de juros Selic não tem relação de longo prazo com o IDE, porém as variáveis que conseguem corrigir os desequílibrios do IDE no curto prazo foram as transações correntes e a taxa de câmbio. / Abstract: In the last two decades, many changes had occurred in Brazilian economy, including the considerable increasing of Foreing Direct Investiment (FDI). There are many factors that can contribute to explain this phenomenon. This paper used some macroeconomic variables that explain the FDI's hehavior in the Brazilian economy in the period of January 1999 until December, 2007. The variables used were: interest rate, GDP deflated by IGP, exchange rate and balance of current account. The method used to explain the relation FDI and variables mentionated above was the cointegration. The results showed that only interest rate does not have long period of time relation with the FDI, but the variables that are able to correct the FDI unstability in the short period of time, were the currency transactions and the exchange rate. / Mestre

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:29:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-05-28Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:59:42Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 souza_rf_me_arafcl.pdf: 1300455 bytes, checksum: ea912a62b971afe10460e571350fe3f6 (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Ao longo das últimas duas décadas ocorreram várias transformações na economia brasileira, dentre elas o aumento considerável da entrada de IDE. Existem vários fatores que contribuíram para explicar esse fenômeno. Porém, o trabalho utilizou algumas variáveis macroeconômicas que explicam o comportamento do IDE na economia brasileira entre janeiro de 1999 e dezembro de 2007. As variáveis utilizadas foram as transações correntes, taxa de câmbio, PIB a preços correntes, deflacionados pelo IGP-DI e taxa de juros Selic. A ferramenta utilizada para explicar a relação do IDE com os restantes das variáveis foi a co-inegração. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que somente a taxa de juros Selic não tem relação de longo prazo com o IDE, porém as variáveis que conseguem corrigir os desequílibrios do IDE no curto prazo foram as transações correntes e a taxa de câmbio. / In the last two decades, many changes had occurred in Brazilian economy, including the considerable increasing of Foreing Direct Investiment (FDI). There are many factors that can contribute to explain this phenomenon. This paper used some macroeconomic variables that explain the FDI’s hehavior in the Brazilian economy in the period of January 1999 until December, 2007. The variables used were: interest rate, GDP deflated by IGP, exchange rate and balance of current account. The method used to explain the relation FDI and variables mentionated above was the cointegration. The results showed that only interest rate does not have long period of time relation with the FDI, but the variables that are able to correct the FDI unstability in the short period of time, were the currency transactions and the exchange rate.

Orientador: Pedro Paulo Zahluth Bastos / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-13T09:43:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Garrido_AtilaAlves_M.pdf: 1273801 bytes, checksum: 35cad54946d84201789553c19a620983 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: O presente trabalho pretende analisar como ocorreram e vêem ocorrendo os processos de criação, estabilidade e transformação da ordem mundial sob hegemonia estadunidense. Nesse sentido, nele será empreendida uma discussão acerca de como essas questões são tratadas pela teoria do sistema-mundo moderno na concepção de Giovanni Arrighi, e sua aplicabilidade para a análise das transformações ocorridas na ordem mundial a partir dos anos 1970. Mais particularmente, especial atenção é conferida para o período mais recente de reorientação da estratégia estadunidense, no período pós-Guerra Fria. O objetivo será mostrar que a Economia Política Internacional de inspiração marxista ainda parece marcada por lacunas importantes a serem superadas. No caso de Arrighi, apesar de seu modelo fornecer interessantes insights para a análise das transformações das ordens mundiais, ele precisa ser corrigido em alguns pontos para contemplar adequadamente essas transformações a partir dos anos 1970. Muito embora incorpore lutas sociais e conflitos internacionais ao centro da análise, o enfoque de Arrighi ainda parece contaminado por certo viés determinista, herdado, de algum modo, da tendência marxista de procurar "leis históricas" inexoráveis, independentemente da prática consciente dos agentes participantes de uma luta cujo resultado, a princípio, não pode ser facilmente determinado. Em particular, o destino da hegemonia estadunidense não parece passível de predeterminação, embora diferentes cenários possam ser imaginados a partir do resultado variável de confrontos ainda carentes de solução, que nos levem para situações aquém da crise da hegemonia estadunidense, ou da crise catastrófica do capitalismo, como se pretende demonstrar adiante. / Abstract: The present work intends to analyze how occurred and has been occurring the process of creation, stability and transformation of world order under American Hegemony. Therein, in this work it will be undertake a discussion about how the modern world-system theory in the conception of Giovanni Arrighi deals with these questions, and the applicability of its model for the analysis of the world order transformations happened since the 1970's. Principally, special attention will be given to the more recent period of US strategic reorientation since the end of Cold War. The aim will be to show that the International Political Economy of Marxist inspiration still seems to be marked by important gaps to be overcome. In the case of Arrighi, in spite of its model provides interesting insights for the analysis of the transformation of world orders, it needs to be rectified in some points to contemplate in a appropriate way these transformations since the 1970's. Even though it incorporates social and international conflicts to the center of the analysis, Arrighi's approach still seems contaminated by some kind of determinist sloping, inherited, somehow, from the Marxist trend of looking for inexorable "historical laws", independently of the conscious practices of the agents involved in conflicts which the result, in principle, can not be easily determined. Particularly, the destiny of the US hegemony does not seem susceptible of predetermination, although different scenarios may be imagined from the changing results of conflicts that still does not have a solution, which lead us to situations that are beneath the crisis of US hegemony, or the catastrophic crisis of capitalism, as it is intended to show ahead. / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

As dit die doel van handel tussen die EU en Suider-Afrika is om ontwikkeling teweeg te bring, is dit eerstens nodig om te verstaan wat bedoel word met die konsep ontwikkeling en hoe dit beskryf word deur verskillende teorieë. Die aandag in hierdie studie sal slegs val op makroteorieë tot ontwikkeling, vanweë die belang daarvan vir die rol van handel in ontwikkeling. Die verskillende teorieë oor die verband tussen handel en ontwikkeling moet ook ondersoek word. Wat duidelik sal blyk, is dat handel wel ‘n rol het om te vervul in ontwikkeling, en veral armoede-uitwissing en ongelykhede bekamp, maar dat die tipe handelsverhouding bepalend is. Daar is in hoofsaak twee standpunte oor die rol van handel: dié wat vrye handel sien as ‘n bron vir ontwikkeling, en dié wat handel beskou as moontlike ‘n bron vir ontwikkeling, maar nie binne die huidige ekonomiese en politieke wêreldstruktuur nie. Die standpunte verskil dus oor die rol van vrye handel in ontwikkeling. Hierdie studie steun laasgenoemde standpunt; hierdie standpunt sal deurlopend in hierdie hoofstuk en ook breedweg in die verhandeling gemotiveer word (sien ook 2.4 hieronder). Die verskillende handelstrategieë wat gevolg kan word om ontwikkeling te bereik, sal ook bespreek word met oog op die relevansie daarvan vir die tipe handelsverhouding met die EU wat ontwikkeling in Suider-Afrika kan aanhelp. / Prof. C.J. Maritz