A new Earth system model of intermediate complexity, LOVECLIM, has been developed in order to study long-term future climate changes. In particular, LOVECLIM includes an interactive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet model (AGISM) as well as an oceanic carbon cycle model (LOCH). Those climatic components can have a great impact on future climate. However, most studies investigating future climate changes do not take them into account. The few studies in recent literature assessing the impact of polar ice sheets on future climate draw very different conclusions, which shows the need for developing such a model. The aim of this study is to analyse the possible perturbations of climate induced by human activities over the next millennia. A particular attention is given to the evolution of the oceanic thermohaline circulation. A series of numerical simulations have been performed with LOVECLIM over the next millennia using various forcing scenarios. The global equilibrium warming computed by the model ranges from 0.55°C to 3.75°C with respect to preindustrial times. The model does not simulate a complete shut down of the oceanic thermohaline circulation but a transient weakening followed by a quasi-recovering at equilibrium. In most of the projections, the Greenland ice sheet undergoes a continuous reduction in volume, leading to an almost total disappearance in the most pessimistic scenarios. The impact of the Greenland deglaciation on climate has been assessed through sensitivity experiments. The removal of the Greenland ice sheet is responsible for a regional amplification of the global warming inducing a total melt of Arctic sea ice in summer. The freshwater flux from Greenland generates large salinity anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean that reduce the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation, slowing down the oceanic thermohaline circulation.

A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a new method, based on a Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum likelihood estimate of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheet melt rates at each time step, and it allows for data gaps while also permitting the estimation of non-linear trends. We have also implemented a fixed multi-model Kalman filter that allows us to rigorously account for additional contributions to SL changes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment and thermal expansion. We report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records before applying the new methodology to historical tide gauge records. In the historical tide gauge study we infer a global mean SL rise of ~1.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr up to 1970, followed by an acceleration to a rate of ~2.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr in 2008. In addition to its connection to SL, Greenland and its large ice sheet act as a barrier to storm systems traversing the North Atlantic. As a result of the interaction with Greenland, low-pressure systems located in the Irminger Sea, between Iceland and Greenland, often produce strong low-level winds. Through a combination of modeling and the analysis of rare in-situ observations, we explore the evolution of a lee cyclone that resulted in three high-speed-wind events in November 2004. Understanding Greenland’s role in these events is critical in our understanding of local weather in this region.

The cold, lightless, and high pressure aquatic environment at the base of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is of interest to a wide range of disciplines. Stable subglacial lakes and their connecting channels remain perennially liquid three kilometers below some of the coldest places on Earth. The presence of subglacial water impacts flow of the overlying ice and provides clues to the geologic properties of the bedrock below, and may harbor unique life forms which have evolved out of contact with the atmosphere for millions of years. Periodic release of water from this system may impact ocean circulation at the margins of the ice sheet. This research uses airborne radar sounding, with its unique ability to infer properties within and at the base of the ice sheet over large spatial scales, to locate and characterize this unique environment. Subglacial lakes, the primary storage mechanism for subglacial water, have been located and classified into four categories on the basis of the radar reflection properties from the sub-ice interface: Definite lakes are brighter than their surroundings by at least two decibels (relatively bright), and are both consistently reflective (specular) and have a reflection coefficient greater than --10 decibels (absolutely bright). Dim lakes are relatively bright and specular but not absolutely bright, possibly indicating non-steady dynamics in the overlying ice. Fuzzy lakes are both relatively and absolutely bright, but not specular, and may indicate saturated sediments or high frequency spatially heterogeneous distributions of sediment and liquid water (i.e. a braided steam). Indistinct lakes are absolutely bright and specular but no brighter than their surroundings. Lakes themselves and the different classes of lakes are not arranged randomly throughout Antarctica but are clustered around ice divides, ice stream onsets and prominent bedrock troughs, with each cluster demonstrating a different characteristic lake classification distribution. In the bedrock trough of Adventure Subglacial Trench, analysis of satellite altimetry is combined with radar sounding data to calculate a mass budget and infer a flow mechanism for a two cubic kilometer discharge reported to have traveled between two lakes in the region from 1996 -1998. The volume released from the source lake exceeded the volume received by the destination lakes by one and a tenth cubic kilometers, indicating that some water must have escaped downstream from the lowest destination lake over the course of the event. Release of water from the source lake preceded arrival of the water at the destination lakes, 260 kilometers away, by about three months. Water continued draining from the destination lakes for several years after surface subsidence at the source lake had ceased. By 2003, a total of one and a half cubic km or nearly 75% of the water released by the source lake had traveled downstream from the destination lakes. Hydraulic modeling work indicates that the initial release of water from the source lake could have been accommodated by a self-enlarging semicircular channel. Subsequent evolution of the discharge and the three-month delay between release of water from the source lake and arrival of that water at the destination lakes indicates that a shallower and broader distributed water system is responsible for the transport of subglacial water in this region. Such a system would be more stable for the given icebedrock geometry and may explain the observations of intermittent flat bright bedrock reflections in radar data acquired upstream from the destination lake in 2000. For the purpose of better understanding the long-term water budget of the Dome C region, an area upstream of Adventure Trench, eleven dated isochronal internal layers within the ice penetrating radar data were tracked. An age-depth relationship, derived from the European ice core through Dome C is used to calculate strain, estimate melt, model ice temperature, and determine absolute basal reflectivity for the entire region which covers over 28,000 square kilometers. The two largest subglacial lakes within the survey, Concordia and Vincennes, are both associated with enhanced basal melting on their upstream shores at rates locally greater than two millimeters per year. Widely distributed melt rates in the major topographic valleys upstream of these lakes are generally less than one millimeter per year throughout the region with slightly higher melts in the basin draining into Vincennes Subglacial Lake. Although published estimates for geothermal flux are capable of explaining the behavior of ice and water in most of the area, an additional source of basal heat is required to explain melt anomalies and subglacial lakes along the Concordia Ridge. Lake Concordia is expected to discharge water on a similar scale and duration as that observed in Adventure Trench, with a repeat cycle of a few hundred years. / text

This report compares surface elevation change and volume change esti- mates from three methods: repeat track (RT), crossover (CX), and overlapping footprints (OFP). These three methods use different approaches to group- ing elevation point measurements taken at different measurement epochs and estimating elevation change. Volume changes are calculated from elevation changes in the same manner for all three methods but differences in sampling resolution between the methods affect volume change estimates in different ways. The recently reprocessed Release 633 version of elevation measurements from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), flown on the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), are used in this analysis. Both elevation changes and volume changes are compared for both the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). Additionally, uncertainties in the estimates for each method are quantified and compared. Results are separated by drainage systems and by above/below 2000 m surface elevation for the GrIS. For the AIS, results are aggregated to the East, West, and Penin- vi sula regions. Volume change estimates agree well for the three methods for the GrIS, with estimates of -227.75 ± 2.12 km³/yr, -249.30 ± 3.42 km³/yr, and -218.24 ± 7.39 km³/yr for the RT, CX, and OFP methods, respectively. These estimates are similar to those published from previous studies. For the AIS, however, larger discrepancies are found in the estimates. This stems primarily from a large discrepancy in the volume change estimate of the East AIS, where the RT, CX, and OFP methods estimate volume changes of 33.39 ± 1.42 km³/yr, 46.42 ± 5.46 km³/yr, and -2.72 ± 2.12 km³/yr, respectively. It's not entirely clear why this large discrepancy exists in this particular region, and elevation change estimates for a few particular drainage systems in this region are examined. Previously published volume changes for the AIS also show a large scatter and more work must be done to reconcile the various estimates. Finally, the volume change uncertainties reported do not completely account for the discrepancies in most regions. Additional analysis must be done to completely quantify all error sources. / text

Geologic records and climate model simulations suggest that changes in the meridional heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean were involved in the abrupt warming events – the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger Interstadials (DOIs) – that punctuated an otherwise cold Greenland climate during the last glacial period. However, the role of Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets in these events remains a subject of controversy. Here we report on the first attempt to combine quantitatively a paleo-temperature proxy with simplified ocean models, with the specific purpose of extracting information about the changes in mass balance of the NH ice sheets during the last glaciation. A Greenland paleotemperature record is combined with the climate models using Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI) in order to estimate the changes that would be required to alter the Atlantic Ocean mass and heat transports between ~30 and 39 thousand years ago. The mean sea level changes implied by changes in NH ice sheet mass balance agree in amplitude and timing with reconstructions from the geologic record, which gives some support to the freshwater forcing hypothesis. Our results are unaffected by uncertainties in the representation of vertical buoyancy transport in the tropical ocean, in large part because the global adjustments to high latitude freshening bypass the tropics and affect sinking rate in the opposite pole. However, the solutions are sensitive to assumptions about physical processes at polar latitudes. We find that the inversion reproduces the gradual changes in sea level and Antarctic temperature inferred from the independent evidence provided by proxy records. The Greenland warm event lasting over 3000 years (DOI 8) can be explained by sustained growth of NH ice sheet and reduced supply of icebergs to the North Atlantic. Our results indicate a more involved role of the NH ice sheets than previously thought, in which both collapse and subsequent growth would be required to explain the full series of the long (> 3000 years) warm events recorded in Greenland ice. / text

Measurements of the key aerosol properties including light scattering and backscattering coefficients (σsp and σbsp), light absorption coefficient (σap), and particle concentration were made at Summit, Greenland, in the summer of 2011. From these quantities, the single scattering albedo (ω) and angstrom scattering and absorption exponents (åsp, åap) were calculated. In conjunction with these measurements, aerosol optical depth (AOD or τ) and the spectral surface albedo, Rs, were measured. Additionally, the aerosol chemical composition was characterized through snow and air filter analyses. A radiative transfer model was used to estimate the direct aerosol radiative forcing and radiative forcing efficiency using the measurements as inputs. Taken as a whole, this project allowed for the first ever measurement-based characterization of aerosol radiative forcing over central Greenland.

A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a new method, based on a Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum likelihood estimate of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheet melt rates at each time step, and it allows for data gaps while also permitting the estimation of non-linear trends. We have also implemented a fixed multi-model Kalman filter that allows us to rigorously account for additional contributions to SL changes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment and thermal expansion. We report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records before applying the new methodology to historical tide gauge records. In the historical tide gauge study we infer a global mean SL rise of ~1.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr up to 1970, followed by an acceleration to a rate of ~2.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr in 2008. In addition to its connection to SL, Greenland and its large ice sheet act as a barrier to storm systems traversing the North Atlantic. As a result of the interaction with Greenland, low-pressure systems located in the Irminger Sea, between Iceland and Greenland, often produce strong low-level winds. Through a combination of modeling and the analysis of rare in-situ observations, we explore the evolution of a lee cyclone that resulted in three high-speed-wind events in November 2004. Understanding Greenland’s role in these events is critical in our understanding of local weather in this region.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1998. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. [147]-158).

An improved understanding of the processes controlling the dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet is needed to enable more accurate determination of the response of the ice sheet to projected climate change. Meltwater produced on the ice sheet surface can penetrate to the bed and cause ice motion to speed up through enhanced basal sliding. However, the importance of coupled hydro-dynamics both to current ice sheet motion and future stability over the coming century is unclear. This thesis presents observations from the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet which improve our understanding of coupled hydro-dynamics. It commences with an investigation of the response of ice motion to exceptional meltwater forcing during summer 2012. Simultaneous field observations of ice motion (by GPS) and proglacial discharge show that, despite two extreme melt events during July 2012 and summer ice sheet runoff 3.9 s.d. above the 1958– 2011 mean which resulted in faster summer motion, net annual motion was slower than in the average melt year of 2009. This suggests that surface melt-induced acceleration of land-terminating regions of the ice sheet will remain insignificant even under extreme melting scenarios. The thesis then examines spatial variability in ice motion, in relation to an inferred subglacial drainage axis, using GPS and satellite radar observations from a land-terminating margin up to 20 km inland where ice is 800 m thick. Whilst spatial variability in subglacial drainage system configuration is found to control ice motion at short timescales, the proportional contribution of summer motion to annual motion is almost invariant. The structure of the subglacial drainage system does not therefore appear to significantly influence spatial variations in net summer speedup. Lastly, observations are made by applying feature tracking to 30 years of optical satellite imagery in a ~170 by 50 km area along the ice sheet margin (where ice reaches ~850 m thick) to examine whether coupled hydrology-dynamics affects inter-annual ice motion. Hydro-dynamic coupling resulted in net ice motion slowdown during a period of clear climate warming. Further increases in meltwater production may therefore reduce ice sheet motion. The thesis concludes that at land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet, (1) larger annual meltwater volumes do not result in faster annual ice motion; (2) the detailed structure of the subglacial drainage network appears unimportant to the role of summer motion in determining annual motion; and (3) atmospheric warming over several decades has been accompanied by a slowdown in ice motion. As such, hydro-dynamic coupling is unlikely to form a significant positive feedback between surface melting and ice motion in response to projected climate warming. The wider relevance of these findings to tidewater systems requires further investigation.

Geomorphological evidence of the Scandinavian glaciation in the Moravian Gate Abstract This thesis is aimed at area in the Moravian Gate which was covered by continental ice sheets during the Quaternary. The goal of this thesis is to analyze results of work of Tyrá ček (2006). Main parts of this thesis are: current views on the extent of glaciated area, definition ice-marginal landforms, methods my fieldwork, results and discussion. Maps and graphs were created as a part of this thesis. Data was processed using MapInfo Professional 7.0 SCP software, ArcGIS 9 software a Microsoft Office Excel 2003.